Spoiler: Current Voting History
Spoiler: Previous Voting History
NY 213 - Game Over!
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Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea Ircher He / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
In post 4036, Kublai Khan wrote:
No. But if Lalendra was town, scum would find reasons to be a part of the town-led wagon.In post 4035, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I mean, is it that hard to believe? They're confirmed town, that doesn't mean they're right. You want people to just mindlessly sheep them?In post 4038, Kublai Khan wrote:
Both in general and in this game. I haven't seen anyone really explain why they aren't on the wagon.In post 4037, Ankamius wrote:in general orIn post 4042, Ankamius wrote:
HonestlyIn post 4038, Kublai Khan wrote:
Both in general and in this game. I haven't seen anyone really explain why they aren't on the wagon.In post 4037, Ankamius wrote:in general or
If I saw a wagon being led by conftown and the wagon ended up flipping town
That's the very first angle I would be looking forIn post 4043, Ankamius wrote:I wouldn't be too surprised if scum were dispersed off the wagon, especially if the slots right after the conftowns are town.
Just going to point outIn post 4007, Ircher wrote:
That my gamestate reads this game are provably reliable-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
Two flipped scum were on my slot's wagon D1 (Gamma Emerald slot, texcat slot)
One flipped scum was on Flavor Leaf alone (Whemestar slot)
Also of note is that Performer's wagon had a pretty strong town core leading it (Tchill13 -> Kublai Khan -> Wavemode -> Vaxkiller -> Lalendra -> Osuka), of which only one slot within the first six are unflipped.
On top of the two confirmed scum on my slot's wagon, it's led by JarJarDrinks and Creature, two unflipped slots.
The large Osuka wagon before it doesn't seem very relevant since the members of it were mostly town (only texcat and Krazy were the slots voting it that are not flipped/conftown) and it dispersed almost evenly across both other wagons.
There's strong evidence here that my slot flipping D1 was desirable for scum.
Unflipped players on Performer are (Vaxkiller, TehBrawlGuy, Ankamius, Skygazer, Creature)
Unflipped players on my slot are (JarJarDrinks, Myloninja13, Krazy)
Golden Robster was unvoted.
Just by numbers, it's likely there's scum on the Performer wagon.
As an aside, the only somewhat strong wagon on scum is a Gamma Emerald wagon roughly halfway through day one, (Almost50 -> JarJarDrinks -> MyloNinja13 -> Skygazer)-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
Here's reasonably good evidence that MyloNinja13 is townIn post 2700, Ircher wrote:Kublai Khan(5) -Hopkirk(2346),Gamma Emerald(2488),Flavor Leaf(2499),Ankamius(2533),PenguinPower(2572)
Myloninja13 (4) - Creature (1941), Vaxkiller (2472),texcat(2552),Ausuka(2574)
Flavor Leaf(5) -Whemestar(2542),Wavemode(2635), JarJarDrinks (2640), Golden Robster (2642),Lalendra(2657)
Not Voting (2) - Skygazer,Scioness Sajj
The day took a while to start up and these three wagons slowly built up, but then mostly disintegrated afterwards. Scum didn't force anything and the way the flipped scum were placed indicates that they are okay with this current gamestate (predominantlytexcats, she joined a slowrolling wagon while the KK wagon was gaining steam).-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
This is quite strange...In post 4275, Ircher wrote:Dunnstral(0) -
Creature (5) -Ankamius(4239),Kublai Khan(4240), TehBrawlGuy (4245), Myloninja13 (4252), Golden Robster (4255)
Lalendra(5) -PenguinPower(3678),Wavemode(3716), JarJarDrinks (3721),Tchill13(4215), Vaxkiller (4220)
texcat(3) -Scioness Sajj(3756), Krazy (4161),Dunnstral(4162)
Myloninja13 (5) -texcat(3637),Ausuka(4010),Gamma Emerald(4073),Hopkirk(4082),Lalendra(4130)
One confirmed town wagon led by town
One unconfirmed wagon led by town
One scum wagon with 2/3 town
One unconfirmed wagon that's led by scum
I'm starting to wonder if this is some sort of gambit play, I remember the Creature wagon was condemned when it initially popped up, yet all four of the not-KublaiKhan slots were there for over 200 posts, with now conftown joining it later on.
I'm inclined to believe that the Creature wagon is almost purely town, maximum one scum. The rest of the game is fluid at this point, yet the Creature wagon is eerily stagnant after Kublai Khan leaves it (Scioness Sajj and Lalendra later join it while TehBrawlGuy leaves it quite late in order to vote... confirmed scum Gamma Emerald.)
The Creature wagon, outside of confirmed town, never voted for Lalendra after joining the Creature wagon. Both confirmed scum stayed on Myloninja13 for the rest of the day.
I would say there's a good likelihood that both scum were on the Lalendra wagon due to this, some chance of one. No way in hell there's zero though.-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
My initial assessment that the Lalendra wagon being almost entirely town is also pretty much proven true thanks to texcat+GammaEmerald flipping, yet the unconfirmed slots on it at the end of the day are (JarJarDrinks, Vaxkiller, Creature, Skygazer), two of which are already on the wagon at the point of the above vote count and a third (Creature) joins very shortly afterwards off his lonely Kublai Khan vote.
This would be really interesting in a Creature-scum world.-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
The initial push on Dunnstral is scumrich, I'd bet on at least one unflipped scum on that wagon. (JarJarDrinks, Creature, MyloNinja13) <--- interestingly Mylo soon jumps off and Skygazer jumps on
The second is likely still on Scioness Sajj thanks to the three unflipped being the front and the three flipped being the back. (Golden Robster, Skygazer, Vaxkiller)-
Myloninja13
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Myloninja13
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Krazy
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Krazy Jack of All TradesKrazy
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
Don't really want to interrupt your stream of consciousness because good things happen during these times, but the wind is picking up and I don't want to lose this post.
So if I am following you, one of your main concerns with GR is that around this point:
Spoiler:
it seems unlikely that there would be three scum all on the same wagon, because that doesn't seem to fit their general pattern? Because that strikes me as very weak reasoning. Dunn was the chief pusher of the Texcat wagon and also had 'hard defended' Wheme at L-1. They both had more motivation and would have feared less blowback. Also, GR had already committed to Dunn, so her moving off the wagon when it had finally developed would have been odd.
So I absolutely disagree with the idea that the Dunn wagon suggests GR is not scum.
Why would you just assume scum wouldn't go 3/4 on Dunn? Dunn's reads were dope this game. Like you can't just ignore the level of threat the player offered. A nightkill would have too obviously implicated Texcat, so a daylynch with a heavier-commitment does not seem that unusual. I absolutely would not see it as a hard clear for the GR slot.vote conspiracy-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
hmm
Vaxkiller might be the lynch today just to be able to sort the end of day 4 once and for all; if there's another scum outside the Dunnstral wagon, it's far more likely to be Vaxkiller than TehBrawlGuy
And if Vaxkiller is town... then why did scum need to push through this Dunnstral wagon so hard?-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Krazy
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Krazy Jack of All TradesKrazy
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
Which ones? JJD has been wagoned like every other day to varying degrees of success.
I think there's just about no way Gamma starts a wagon on JJD (on texcat cfd day) when TBG is at L-2 and Scion is at L-1, even for distancing. Gamma would have had minimal blowback for a hammer on either one of those slots. That was good old fashioned opportunism. I have very high confidence in JJD town and the wagons on him have been predominantly scum driven. Wheme, Gamma, even texcat all wanted a piece of JJD. And Wheme I am fairly certain is even worse at scum than texcat and almost certainly was not bussing on his JJD push.
For GR, Gamma definitely wants to be in the middle of the wagon on GR. Gamma is kinda like a shark, he smells blood. When he senses a buddy is going down, he wants to get his bite in. But he doesn't usually draw the first blood on his buddy.vote conspiracy-
Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius
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Ankamius SurvivorAnkamius
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Krazy
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Krazy Jack of All TradesKrazy
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
I covered a lot of it here: viewtopic.php?p=10389501#p10389501
Texcat's posting style strongly suggests there is exactly one scum between JJD and GR. She crafted each post to include both of them and included a lot of fluff to ensure there was something to say, when she does like no fluff posting elsewhere.
JJD immediately pushed for the Mason buddy to claim, which is something I basically only see from town.
Wheme did early push on JJD before any red flips, and Gamma did a big push while SS was at l-1.
There's just a lot of reasons to see JJD as town at this point. Scum either wanted him dead, or wanted him so discredited that he'd be a game-winning mislynch.vote conspiracy
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