Newbie 1889: Ice Cream (Game Over)

[xwing]

I want to keep Thor around, I wont be voting there today. Why are we even discussing his reputation in a newbie game, it's irrelevant.

RCEnigma, run down on why you're voting for my slot?

...

Hi everybody, it's been about 3-4 years since I last played, so bare with me and I'm sure we can sort everything out.

first, hi and welcome haylen..

thor's reputation is irrelevant, true..and so is him being IC..i didnt even know him until sky mentioned he was excited to play with thor coz of an interview, and i asked for the link for reading purposes..
why do you want to "keep him around"?

since RCE has asked to be replaced, i'll try to answer for him:
1. if asked to choose between a volxen and angel/haylen wagon, he'd choose your slot coz he thinks volxen is town
2. your slot has been one of the inactive/lurker slots
3. there are certain slots that he will defend to the death, and unfortunately your slot's not one of them

i'll let the others answer for themselves..

if i missed anything on the RCE question, please chime in..

[xwing]

Because the one person I am 100% certain of being town is myself. My win condition requires all scum to be lynched, and I know for a fact that I am not scum, so me being mislynched does not help me meet my win condition. So don't I have an obligation to defend myself to the best of my abilities, as opposed to sitting back and just accepting my mislynch? I'm not really sure what point you are trying to drive home here.

what do you think of RCE's question on 286?

[xwing]

1) xwing is voting me
1a) by just sheeping NotNova (which I could see, but they brought at least a few of their own points, IMO)
2) they're using their only game as a reference point, which is faulty (and therefore scummy (?)

i see this "sheeping" word again..

anyway, thought process..
if i suck at finding scum, at least sticking to my strongest town reads would still benefit town in general..unless im following the wrong person/s (woe is me..)..of course im not following blindly (that's why im voting volxen instead of thor/angel and got some of my own points against the case)..

if town is all suspicious of each other, it benefits scum mostly (a certain amount of paranoia is understandable given the info we have, but we cant do PoE if we just suspect everyone)..

does sheeping mean following the people you think are strongest town? for the record, that's reundo and notnova for me..and no, i am not appeasing you both..i think i've been consistent with who my strongest town reads are..

i have my doubts on volxen's alignment but it seems to be the one that makes the most sense to me right now and we're running out of time..im doubting it a bit coz of RCE's (my town lean) firm stand on volxen..he may be wrong, he may be right, i dunno..i just gave it some weight as RCE has played with him..if anyone's got a better case than volxen's they should voice it now..as long as we dont no-lynch i believe town is still in a better position the next day..

[volxen]

So let me ask you this Volxen, do you see Scum!Nova tunneling you to a lynch only for it to flip town and implicate himself heavily? As opposed to keeping his lynch options open for perhaps a Townie to lead the charge that he started.

The answer is yes, I think it's entirely possible that scum!Nova could lead the charge against me, even though it's a bit of a risky play (as opposed to letting someone else take the charge as you suggest). If he is scum I don't know exactly what his plan going into day 2 will be assuming I am mislynched on day 1, but it would probably involve deflecting the blame at some of the more suspicious players on my wagon, such as xwing and especially Ceejay[UC]. Ceejay[UC] in particular would be an easy target for NotNova to attack, considering Ceejay didn't exactly articulate a good reason for being on my wagon (he voted me because I was on his wagon, even though he had three other people on his wagon that he has ignored). Or maybe he would start doubling down on xwing, who was his original scumread. In fact, interestingly in 287 NotNova said the following about xwing:

Polarized: xwing (if you flip scum, cleared town, otherwise a scumlean)

So it seems his read of xwing is contingent on how I flip. I find it a bit interesting that he's not willing to commit on xwing until he sees my flip. If I flip scum, that apparently means xwing is cleared as town, but if I flip town, then xwing is back to being a scumread for him again. So maybe he makes the case that there has to be at least one scum among {Volxen, xwing}, and then pushes for xwing's mislynch on day 2 (assuming nova is scum and xwing is town) after my mislynch on day 1.

[volxen]

@xwing, who all is in your lynch pool?

[xwing]

@xwing, who all is in your lynch pool?

that would be you, then angel (mostly for the twice flaked, which i admit is quite weak)..
im gonna look at ceej and sky more as well (in that order)..
any reason you asked?

[Thor665]

what's your current read list, thor?

Who are you confused by my read on? I've clearly stated all my reads.
If I hadn't it's safe to presume null.

it's easier to track if it's in one post..lemme try if i got it right from memory:
town: notnova
town lean: rce
null: all the rest not mentioned by name here
null/scum: reundo
scum: ceejay

You're overlooking that I called you a town lean.
But otherwise well done.

@Haylen - greetings, and I suppose welcome back.
Hell me lynch Ceejay?

[volxen]

@xwing, who all is in your lynch pool?

that would be you, then angel (mostly for the twice flaked, which i admit is quite weak)..
im gonna look at ceej and sky more as well (in that order)..
any reason you asked?

Because it's important to be transparent about things like that.

[xwing]

@thor: what's your case against ceejay?
i mean you had reasons for UC, but he's since been replaced..do you have anything against ceej that you could share with us?

pedit: @volxen: okay..i gave out my read list just a few posts back so i thought it was clear but okay..

[Thor665]

@thor: what's your case against ceejay?
i mean you had reasons for UC, but he's since been replaced..do you have anything against ceej that you could share with us?

Only the stuff I already said in my posts you're not reading and then making me waste my time repeating myself because your time is apparently more important.

I called him scum for skimming while not admitting he was skimming.
Incidentally, even though you've kind of admitted to skipping and skimming - it's still poor and anti-town play.
Or scum play.

[NotNova]

@xwing: My opinion of you has improved a fair bit in the last while. My scum lean is due to me still having issues with some of your play which I would like to hash out on D2 and see where everything goes. I don't feel as confident about that as I used to, which is probably obvious going through my posts.

@volxen: my read on xwing is contingent upon your flip because I frankly don't see a world where you two are scum together, which I've explained in a response to RCE. I have a hard time believing scum!volxen would focus on scum!xwing so much and that scum!xwing would be so eager to jump on his scumpartner's wagon. All of that would be some hardcore distancing/bussing beyond what is reasonable or necessary.
Besides all that, I see a much better likelihood of you flipping scum than xwing at the current moment.

I fully plan to make a greater effort to sort the replacements on D2 as well as reassessing my read on everyone so far. Thing is though, a lot of it is going to be dependent on how today turns out. I'm feeling enough fatigue and seeing too much town-apathy to really find overly necessary to do double work today predicting every possibility of D1 and N1. I think I've been clear enough regarding relative confidence in my reads.

[xwing]

Only the stuff I already said in my posts you're not reading and then making me waste my time repeating myself because your time is apparently more important.

I called him scum for skimming while not admitting he was skimming.
Incidentally, even though you've kind of admitted to skipping and skimming - it's still poor and anti-town play.
Or scum play.

thanks and i deserved that honest and brutal statement..
and thanks for repeating the reason anyway..
but ceejay did admit to skimming as well? 213

[xwing]

@xwing: My opinion of you has improved a fair bit in the last while. My scum lean is due to me still having issues with some of your play which I would like to hash out on D2 and see where everything goes. I don't feel as confident about that as I used to, which is probably obvious going through my posts.

that's fine..feel free to hash out whenever you want..unsure why you want to wait for D2..the more people we can "clear", the more powerful PoE becomes..

people wont easily rally to me coz im lynchbaity and had stupid/weak plays that caused people to become wary of me..but someone universally town read like you will have more credibility..unfortunately someone like that is also a good NK target..so in short my advice is don't wait..if you cant deal with the inactive slots for obvious reasons, you can still deal with the active ones..

I'm feeling enough fatigue and seeing too much town-apathy to really find overly necessary to do double work today predicting every possibility of D1 and N1.

key word here is town-apathy..this is worrying for me coz we're allowing scum to very easily skate by while the rest are inactive or busy engaging with each other instead of focusing on finding scum (or town, for the matter, depends on play style)..

we seriously need more content besides the active posters..i really believe just posting whatever your thoughts/thought processes are would still help town..

[xwing]

To answer Nova the exact person doesn't matter much for Sky's read. Even as a newbie the implication is that the IC is a given game is more experienced than the rest of the playerlist ergo better at the game. Which makes them more likely to read scum challenging them.

From a newbie mindset of course. I only knew Reundo and Volxen coming into the game and I have no problem challenging the IC is either alignment.

i'd disagree on this, but RCE is not around so..

@sky
would it change your reads on both reundo and RCE, if you knew both of them were unfamiliar with thor/thor's reputation? or in other words, what other indications would point to reundo and RCE's alignment, if "challenging thor" is outside the picture?

i also didn't know thor's got that much experience, i just know he's the IC, but personally wont skew how i view his alignment..would it change your town read of me as well?

it's interesting that you found my vote on thor was townie when general consensus found it suspicious to some degree..

can i/we safely assume you've done reading?

[xwing]

I'd also rather vote Angel here. Not that Ceejay is the most active poster and I think his vote isnt based on the overall game. Not sure how far back he has read so it seems like a reach for the first thing that pinged him about his wagon.

This is true, I skimmed most of the game. I can get behind an Angel vote but I'd prefer Volxen's.

in what order did you skim the pages?
how much caught up are you/do you intend to read from the start?
what do you think of the other slots/players?

[Skygazer]

I realize you probably don't stand by this too much, but I'd think someone as experienced as Thor wouldn't bother as much with being cautious as scum. That seems like something that would only really be AI if he was new as scum, or if he's naturally cautious when playing as scum as opposed to town, which I kind of doubt.

Thor's experience is precisely why I was examining the particular wording rather than the action itself. I wouldn't be surprised by him trying to lead an early wagon to L-2 as either alignment, so I'm not really townreading him for a lack of caution with that specific wagon attempt. It's just the particular way he used the word "me" (support me, oppose me, help me) struck me as something that would be odd for town to say. I also know from his interview that he tends to make early wagon pushes on Day 1 to help with forming reads and getting reactions, so the way he specifically mentions how the wagon being at L-2 will be more helpful to him lines up with my understanding of his town play. Granted, he's probably self-aware enough to be able to mimic his town-play really well, but this is exactly how I feel like town-Thor would play this out.

Sky, what do you think about volxen being one of the first players to engage with Thor during RVS? Do you feel the same applies to volxen that he'd be too cautious to engage with Thor and draw his attention as scum?

That's a good question. I don't think a post like this shows a particular lack of caution:

Thor, why do you want to put RC at L-2 so early in the game? Do you really believe that his vote for Reundo was serious rather than RVS?

It feels like a really obvious question to ask, and he doesn't back up this engagement with a vote. Even by his post 21 it feels like he's starting to form light stances (well, more implied stances from the questions he's asking) and ask the sort of questions that would normally be leading the town out of RVS but he still keeps his RVS vote. By the time Thor is at L-1, volx is the only player that questioned Thor about his comment about bringing RC to L-2 that hasn't voted for Thor yet. While wagoning a player to L-1 (Reundo, RCE, xwing) shows a distinct lack of caution that you'd see from newer scum players, not placing a vote on a player you've been questioning does show some sort of restraint/caution in my opinion. Not enough for a full scumread, but volx's engagement with thor doesn't give me the same town pings that your vote, RCE's vote, and xwing's votes have.

[Skygazer]

Volxen feels better to me than CJ and Angel.

Can you briefly describe why? Nova has reasonably valid points on him, and though I think 'over defensive' is amongst the lamest tells in existence to change it to 'limited additional scumhunting' makes it feel pretty valid as an issue with the slot, no?

About volx: yeah, that's a good assessment. He's spending a ton of time talking about himself, and it feels like he's asking a ton of questions to look active without forming any meaningful stances. The way he's been (not) using his vote effectively (early on) has also felt a little too safe to me.

About CJ: I'm slowly becoming less apprehensive about a CJ lynch, actually. I wanted to give CJ a chance to redeem a lurker-slot but I'm not really seeing anything that indicates the slot is town still. I've just been wary because he feels like an easy mislynch but he's not really trying here still and I see very little engagement. I had originally felt that your reasoning for voting UC was kind of negated by that replace-out. Additionally this following quote (addressed at CJ in your 288) came after CJ had already admitted to skimming in his 213 and there's no mention of your concerns over CJ's skimming in your iso before this point as far as I can tell (granted I'm relying on memory and ctrl+f)

Also, you didn't address my question where I was concerned you were skimming. (which should be easy to spot because Reundo is convinced I wasn't addressing you and whined about it, so it was mentioned multiple times).
That you missed it makes me feel more confident I'm correct - why aren't you bothering to read the game? Seems like scum behavior as they don't need to analyze spit, yeah?

But honestly CJ is kind of in the same spot in my mind as volx.

About Angel/Haylen: this wagon on a lurker has been resolved via Haylen's replace in so honestly unless Haylen starts active lurking this slot is a bad lynch.

[Skygazer]

I'm not exactly sure if xwing or Reundo have any clue of Thor's apparent reputation, considering Reundo at one point pretty much said he would never trust Thor's reads and xwing expressed surprised at his "celebrity" status, as he said. Not sure for RCE.

I'm not sure how the celebrity status thing changes much. He's still an IC. xwing putting him at L-1 on page 2 shows a distinct lack of caution that doesn't feel like it comes from scum regardless of Thor's celebrity status or IC status. Do you think I shouldn't be townreading those three, then?

Who are your strongest townreads, then? Could you give some more reasoning on them?

RCE/Reundo/xwing are strongest, Thor not as strong because I'm assuming he's self-aware enough to be able to mimick his town thought processes but he can hopefully be sorted better through PoE later on (I'd still sheep the heck out of him for the info, though).

I've already given reasonings (lack of caution/meta). If more stuff comes up as I start to actually play I'll be sure to mention it but I've done my read through and that's what I got from it.

[NotNova]

I'm not exactly sure if xwing or Reundo have any clue of Thor's apparent reputation, considering Reundo at one point pretty much said he would never trust Thor's reads and xwing expressed surprised at his "celebrity" status, as he said. Not sure for RCE.

I'm not sure how the celebrity status thing changes much. He's still an IC. xwing putting him at L-1 on page 2 shows a distinct lack of caution that doesn't feel like it comes from scum regardless of Thor's celebrity status or IC status. Do you think I shouldn't be townreading those three, then?

Fair enough in RCE's and Reundo's case, but by xwing's own admission "sticking out early" was their conception of townplay at the time they did that, following post-game comments about passivity from their last game. If scum!xwing wants to look towny, they'd try to play it up in accordance with their belief. They went back on it pretty quickly when questioned, too.

My personal issue with the vote is that it wasn't introducing any new content or arguments — in essence they just jumped to the wagon following stated or implied suspicion by three different players at that point, which felt super easy and rubbed me the wrong the way.

Personally, I don't believe in voting "just for pressure" — when I voted volxen initially as basically a pressure-vote, I still tried to explain why I'm picking him and not anyone else, so my trajectory is easier to follow in my ISO.

[Skygazer]

@sky
1. would it change your reads on both reundo and RCE, if you knew both of them were unfamiliar with thor/thor's reputation? or in other words, what other indications would point to reundo and RCE's alignment, if "challenging thor" is outside the picture?

2. i also didn't know thor's got that much experience, i just know he's the IC, but personally wont skew how i view his alignment..would it change your town read of me as well?

3. it's interesting that you found my vote on thor was townie when general consensus found it suspicious to some degree..

4. can i/we safely assume you've done reading?

Numbered for clarity

1. Ehhh there's also the fact that Thor is an IC which is publicly stated to have a good amount of mafia experience. Replace Thor with any of the other ICs I've played with that have intimidating join dates and the read would still stand. Reundo and RCE have both played as how I picture their town game, with Reundo asking lots of questions, engaging with other players' logic, etc and RCE being really self-aware, making posts about his use of the gambler's fallacy and stuff like that. After my first game with him I can definitely see him reevaluating his read on Thor when he did to avoid a death tunnel situation.

2. No, your L-1 vote was townie regardless of Thor being the player it was placed on

3. General consensus can be wrong or influenced by scum.

4. Yes but I tend to forget things when I'm not actively engaging with people, which I can't really do while catching up.

[Skygazer]

by xwing's own admission "sticking out early" was their conception of townplay at the time they did that, following post-game comments about passivity from their last game. If scum!xwing wants to look towny, they'd try to play it up in accordance with their belief. They went back on it pretty quickly when questioned, too.

My personal issue with the vote is that it wasn't introducing any new content or arguments — in essence they just jumped to the wagon following stated or implied suspicion by three different players at that point, which felt super easy and rubbed me the wrong the way.

Personally, I don't believe in voting "just for pressure" — when I voted volxen initially as basically a pressure-vote, I still tried to explain why I'm picking him and not anyone else, so my trajectory is easier to follow in my ISO.

His unvote was reasonable to be honest, it seems like an assessment of the gamestate I'd make. He never said that he was sticking out early to look town, he said he was trying to do stuff to be readable. If a player received feedback after a towngame that being passive makes them hard to read, wouldn't that encourage them to remain passive when they rolled scum to make themselves harder to read? Instead he did something because he

wanted

to be more readable, which doesn't feel like something scum would do.

[NotNova]

I didn't mean the unvote when I was talking about "going back on it", I meant the general thought process behind voting Thor in the first place.

Considering there's a player in the game who played with xwing before, staying passive could in all likelihood earn them heat. If I have to pick between playing to perceived town-expectations as scum or continuing to do what you've been called out for, I pick the former as the likelier and overall smarter decision.
I can see your angle, but I don't think I agree.

I notice you haven't really mentioned me so far — do you have any read on me so far? Do you give credemce to volxen's scumread on me? Have I been difficult to read or did something ping you wrong about my play?

[MarioManiac4]

CheekyTeeky replaces RCEnigma. Deadline is (expired on 2018-09-21 02:47:13) from now.

[CheekyTeeky]

Hey guys I'm town. This game is surprisingly dense so please give me some time to process. Any assistance/opinions from others in the meantime would be greatly appreciated.

[CheekyTeeky]

The thing is, it's honestly a pretty suspicious thing for you to not be voting for your strongest scumread at the moment. There's no such thing as a pressureless vote, and it's advantageous for town to use their vote with this knowledge in mind. Will you voting for UC cause people to suddenly drop everything and lolwagon him? Probably not. But your decision to pressure one of the inactive slots would at the very least be consistent with some of the reads you've posted so far, and it has the potential to get other players to look at the slot more in depth.

Horrordude's (now skygazer) comment here directed towards xwing feels like coaching a less experienced scum buddy, in that he discusses why xwing could be considered scummy, yet horrordude withholds giving his own read on the slot in the same breath. It follows that he votes for UCV a paragraph or two later.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: UC Voyager

I'm okay pushing this button and seeing what comes out. There are some interesting associatives with xwing that I want to explore as well, so I would be good with a wagon on either right now.

I find it difficult to understand why horrordude would vote for a slot he hasn't focused much on rather than on xwing, whom he's commented on several times throughout his ISO. The inclination to push the "hot" wagon, rather than divulge too much about his reads, pings me. In fact the reason I'm ISOing this slot first is that I noticed him on all the large wagons (along with xwing) when doing a VCA. There's no problem in helping town add pressure by joining wagons but what is suspicious is the lack of depth of thought and lack of follow up to wagon reactions when doing so.

The read on xwing from this slot needs clarification. Although skygazer cannot answer about horrordude's thoughts; a solid read from sky on xwing would help me out.