Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[Sashaddin]

Ah, here we go:

Also I want to quickly address this

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.

He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?

Was I the one supposed to come back to this?

[Ausuka]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

I see you like takign things out of context. To take an isolated part of a line of questioning and try and give it a spin

Changing me making a point that maybe those that killed CDB was a player or group of players that were claiming town reads on him. And sash actual responded well to the questioning in my book. Hence why Ive been looking at his bandwagon again. He made no slips with how he responded. The question was deliberately phrased. Rather then

Me sayign so you think CBD was killed because people were town reading him. the "so you" was in there to see if there was a slip with how he responded

If I don't think something is scummy, then I don't see what the point is in responding to it. I don't see how anything I said was taken out of context.

You're saying it was just a reaction test to Sasha? I don't believe that. You accused him of a freudian slip, pushed him over the course of several posts, and even

tied High Risk to Sasha

because you apparently thought your reasoning was so good that scum would have to scumread you afterwards? Nothing indicates that this was a reaction test, and you never said it was one before now. Why did you push here specifically for 'slips'? What made you think that you could get a scumslip out of this line of questioning?

[Ausuka]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

To be quite frank the hole thing looks like gambit.

You lynch rui but he turns out to be town.

You then help set a narative well mayve sash was after all

And then day 3 were down 2 townies and you simply say why i gave good reasons. It just looks like cunning play from you

sorry about the he.

Lynching Ruirui is not something I could have planned for as scum - I never tried to get her lynched at all. There is no way for me to predict events turning out the way that they did. Regardless of my alignment, it's clear that the RuiRui vote would be because of the deadline, because if I actually wanted to compromise there I would've done it earlier.

And like, you're saying all this is part of my scum strategy, and I guess that's like a possibility? But nothing actually indicates that that's the case. You could form that sort of narrative about anyone in this game. There's no reason why it's actually likely I'm scum doing this, rather than town who scumreads Sasha but decided to vote Ruirui to avoid a nolynch at the end of the day. So I still don't get why you, as town, think I'm scum here.

[Ausuka]

Looks at the bob votes then looks at the rui wagon yesterday.

I'm the only bob vote.

What's the similarity? The person isn't Sashaddin?

[bob3141]

Ah, here we go:

Also I want to quickly address this

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.

He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?

Didnt see that but yes I eventually did come to the same conclusion. Although is premise did seem flawed, you couldnt fault for his reasoning that he belived that CBD was killed by some that wanted teh town cred for town readign that player.

@Aus - Doesnt mean I wouldnt push on him for the other reasons I thought he was scum.

[Ausuka]

@Bob: Why did Sasha respond well? Was it just that he didn't scumslip?

[Garmr]

Looks at the bob votes then looks at the rui wagon yesterday.

I'm the only bob vote.

What's the similarity? The person isn't Sashaddin?

They are both town. I'm really good at picking out lynchable town.

[bob3141]

@Bob: Why did Sasha respond well? Was it just that he didn't scumslip?

Could see anything off with his post ( no sort perceptive mistakes ) aswell as his reasoning for why he though CDB was NKed was consistant. Even if it could be applied to him and a few others. But since most players had publicly started taht they were town reading CBD (day one), it woudlnt realy have narrowed it down much.


the hole thing stated around a inconsistency with sach his push on gamr day 2. Where his logic was flawed. somethign along teh lines that he claimed gamr would have been nightkilled yet he was also claiming he belived gamr to be scummy.



With what i perceived as sash dancing with teh hammer. Im still not decided if he was simply hesitant town or scum trying to increase the blame by One. I.e. him stating he would hammer, maybe in the hope that some else would first. Making the lynch in practice 8 rather than 7. Maybe givign more breathing room for any mafia.

[Exilon]

Ah, here we go:

Also I want to quickly address this

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.

He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?

Was I the one supposed to come back to this?

No, Bob. And not really "supposed to come back to", he just didn't

[skitter30]

His attitude changed a lot towards me in Day 1.

He wanted my lynch, for info he said, but was still defending me against the pushes of others (Garmr and Bob). He ended up on Ruirui's wagon but still wanted to lynch me. His actions seem more town to me. I don't see scum playing like this, it doesn't pass my smell test.

Against others, his posts were rational and inquisitive. Another town trait to me.

I could write a few sentences more but I gotta run, I hope this is enough for you to see my point.

this doesn't seem townie to me?

[skitter30]

UNVOTE: Skitter

why don't u think i'm scum anymore?
what do u think of exilon?

[skitter30]

and drawing conclusions, obviously.

a) i'm not gaslighting you, that's kind of a weird thing ot accuse me tbh? like why do you think i'm lying to you about your motives/analysis instead of just ... sharing what i think about it?

b) no offense but i don't think any of the conclusions you draw are really like ... noteworthy, or indicative of original town thought. they're all a lot more summarize-y than anything else

YOUR OWN assumption is also not necessarily true, especially because two posts later in 167 his words are still aligned with a CDB scumread. And still voting for him.

my assumption might not be true, sure. yours might not be either, that's thing.
you'll also notice that i didn't say that egix said he wasn't scumreading channel anymore, but that i said i *coudln't tell* if egix was still scumreading channel. my point is that i couldn't tell what egix's read was and that i thus couldn't tell if whether or not your assumption was valid

Even without regarding the above, the worst part to me is how you ignore Egix's own words about the subject:

...
you do realize that 1130 is after 1128, right?
i hadn't read that far yet

What do town do often? Sheep a wagon from their previously top scumread?
At that point IIRC Egix had been voting CDB, and his suspicion had been fading, but then he sheeps that vote? Like there aren't only 3 people in this game. Either CDB went from top scumread to top townread or something along those lines, and everyone inbetween was null and not worth trusting,

or Egix's own suspicion wasn't even that strong to begin with.

Which is fine and possibly town, but it's still a terrible look for him.

i think it was the bolded. and sure, it's a terrible look. i don't think it's inherently scummy tho; i think town do this sort of thing too (esp. in rvs when reads aren't necessarily established yet)

Bolded is analysis and interpretation, very obviously, so I don't even know what you're looking at here that makes you say that. You keep invoking this IIOA thing without regard to the purpose of the information which is really dismissive and akin to a fallacy fallacy.

it feels like a summary more than anything else to me

And now you're strawmanning. My main conclusion is that the way he's been playing supports a scum agenda, which justifies a vote. It's literally there, written just outside of your bolding.

I do hope your vote isn't the byproduct of your projecting.

i disagree that anything you've written proves that egix's reads are just for show
you've shown that he's doing things that scum can do, sure. most of the things you've highlightd i also think are *entirely* possible to come from town, and i don't see any particularly reason to believe why it's more likely these things came from scum!egix than town!egix.
i don't think you've demonstrated scum motivation here (ie specifically in the sense of showing why you think this is *more* likely to come from scum than town).

what exactly do u mean by 'supporting a scum agenda'?

[skitter30]

i can track his thought process from post to post and his posts holistically make sense as a whole
like i feel like i can understand how he's approaching the game

I feel like I can understand it too but I don't understand how that makes him town? Like, I think scum could easily decide to approach the game from an angle of "let's lynch sasha, and while we're at it i can tie people (hrg) to him to make it look less like i'm tunneling and more like i'm gamesolving."

that's a fair pov
i don't really know how to elaborate on what i'm feeling tho, i'm sorry
if i figure out how to articulate it i will do so

[skitter30]

hey skitter,

Do you remember how I played D2 as scum last game when I was flailing trying to find direction?

See anything similar here?

Does it matter that scum wouldn't be solo at this point in the game like I was?

? not sure what you're referring to here
(i mean, i do remember u day2 last game i think but i'm not sure who you're talking about really)

[skitter30]

back to were i was

So atleast one of the three sash, Ausuka and urp2 have to be scum. All three coudl be or just one. From the simple logic

If the first 5 to vote sash were town and sash was town. Then why didnt 2 scum finish him off?

So either atleast one of the 5 was scum or sash was. Would they have joined a counter wagon or finished him off.


So that leaves me with ( urp2 and ausuka) vs sash (not excluding the possibility that sash is scum with scum bussing on him)

So now that we have the condition. I will no think on who of the 3 i think is most likely scum

this might be a weird thing to say but this logic is so ???? that i think it's hard to fake?

[u r a person 2]

hey skitter,

Do you remember how I played D2 as scum last game when I was flailing trying to find direction?

See anything similar here?

Does it matter that scum wouldn't be solo at this point in the game like I was?

? not sure what you're referring to here
(i mean, i do remember u day2 last game i think but i'm not sure who you're talking about really)

I did a lot of... exploratory analysis, and I'm referring to Bob.

[u r a person 2]

hey, you quoted a great example of what I'm talking about

[skitter30]

oh got it
i do think that the logic has made a lot less sense in the past couple of pages and i'm like rereading posts and going ????? what do you possibly mean by this

i'm not sure if he's flailing tho; i think he kinda (maybe?) believes what he's saying even if idk what he's trying to say?

i think scum are more likely to flail when they're under pressure and i don't think he was under that much before starting his analyisis thing
not sure if being solo would matter as much. i guess i think solo scum feel like they have more of a responsibility to direct/impact the game than not!solo !scum since they're the only ones who can purposefully push a scum agenda

now that i thinka bout it if bob is town scum would prob perceive him as lynchbait and i haven't really seen a concentrated push on him, which is a bit suspicious actually

also if he's scum i think scum would try to distance from him (unless he's like the strongest pr) which i also dont' particularly see happening

[u r a person 2]

yeah, i mean i was flailing for sure

but I'm not sure it HAS to come from flailing scum

it's more like, "okay, i need to show that I'm scum hunting but i want to keep my options open, so I'm just going to flood the thread with analysis over the course of days while saying im not done and putting off giving conclusions"

[u r a person 2]

My new scum pool is {Bob, HRG, Egix, Excilon} and i think of those I wanna lynch bob or hrg

thoughts, skitter?

[skitter30]

ah ok; didn't realize that that was specifically what u were referring to; i def picked up on you doing that last time (also pointing this out here is probably kinda townie)

i can kinda see it idk

if there happens to be a vig i do think this sort of slot would be a good vig shot btw

pedit: i want to wagon exilon rn
still working on sorting hrg; i'm kinda profoundly null on them; i do kinda feel like bob is a mislynch tbh; don't really have thoughts on egix, which is problematic

what do u think fo ausuka?

[u r a person 2]

i think ausuka is town

I def don't want to lynch outside those 4 players today

and your excilon case got me to rethink. you're right about iioa, and there were also a couple turns of phrase somewhere in the walls of text that pinged me

skim through hrg again for me? and don't forget the predecessor. I think that's our best shot today tbh

VOTE: hrg

[skitter30]

i've skimmed hrg's and cby's isos, and i kinda think the slot is town tbh

not really feeling a vote there rn

[u r a person 2]

help me see it?

[skitter30]

cby's posts were pretty nuanced for that stage of the game

(i don't think the flaking was ai)

i think hrg sincerely believes his case on me; he picked up on the fact that i was kinda looking for a place to put my vote for a lot of the day which i tought was kinda insightful, it indicates he's reading the motivation behind my posts.

The fact I posted though between you questioning them and now without calling me out for not answering tells me that they are empty questions.

this is kinda a weird thing for scum to say; i don't know if i can articulate why

VOTE: Skitter

This is where we really should be lynching today.
And I don't want to vote outside of Skitter, Bob, and Ausuka either.

I kinda feel like this stems from a playstyle clash more than anything else, but go for it

Possibly so.
I'm currently in the middle of reading 2 scum games with you in.

i also think that me calling this a playstyle clash prompting him to read some of my old games and then ultimately leading to an unvote is townie - if he's scum like why go to this effort (and it's a weird thing for scum to think to say, that they're going to read some of my old games) to unovte. why not just continue pushing me?