This bring a 5 letter word to mindIn post 260, Sashaddin wrote:Um, hello. Sorry for the absence, I thought of quitting then I thought how I hate when someone quits on games I like, so here i am.
Having caught up, the very first thing that comes to my mind is that Garmr is very opportunistic and shrewd. He's the same that when were red together, he's playing within his scum range imo. He's my prime suspect.
Others are less obvious, I'll have to read a second or third time this evening to get a feel of the other players, probably when the kids and wife are sleeping.
But in the meantime:
VOTE: Garmr
URAP2 is performing poorly rn imo
Is there a point to this? It seems to give opposing conclusions about things.In post 292, Ausuka wrote:Just going to talk about this VC for a moment:As long as Sasha is scum here (which I believe he is) we should be looking at scum on the RuiRui wagon. If he's town that suggests a high concentration of scum on the Sasha wagon. Luv is an IC here of course and therefore cannot be scum so the pool of votes we'd be looking at is {u r a person 2, ausuka, bob, garmr}. Knowing that I'm town I personally can condense that to {ur2, bob, garmr}In post 250, tris wrote:
Even so I believe Sasha is scum here and therefore would rather spend time looking at the wagon on ruirui instead. Egix and Exilon are the most suspicious here because they jumped on towards the end of the wagon, making it more likely that the reason for their choice was to defend Sasha. Probably cdb is town because he feels genuine here and although I know that skitter is dangerous as scum she hasn't triggered any red flags yet other than the early game thing which I now think was just a misunderstanding.
Either way, the reasoning for my beliefs based on the wagons, lies in how the Sasha wagon has stalled. Realistically if Sasha is town scum are going to want to jump on that because there's been high willingness shown to lynch him, more so than anything else.
If Sasha is scum, I'd actually also expect scum to bus Sasha here since the wagon gained a lot of momentum and I think most scumteams wouldn't want to get caught out on defending their scumbuddy from a lynch d1.
However obviously neither of these things has happened as Sasha wagon has stalled and no new votes are coming through. If Sasha is town this suggests that scum are already on the wagon; the reason scum can't jump on Sasha and push him further is because they're already there. This happened in the last Mini Normal I played actually; all three scum jumped on a budding wagon at the beginning and it stalled, so I don't want to discount the Sasha!town possibility. I don't think all 3 scum would necessarily need to be on the Sasha wagon for this purpose, though; it's possible also that only 2 are on the wagon, and the other one is just really scared by the prospect of working with their scumbuddies and all being on the d1 mislynch, and there's also a scum in the vanity voters or voting Ruirui if she's town.
Occam's razor though is that Sasha is just scum here and the reason that his wagon has stalled in the way that it has is that his scumbuddies are really anti-bus and are hoping to get another wagon through, namely RuiRui. I actually find it really hard to imagine a scumteam with both Sasha and a vanity voter; you're showing a hard aversion to bussing, and yet you're not going to push the counterwagon, which has a high chance of just letting the lynch happen and making you look much worse than you would if you'd have voted Sasha? So I'd imagine that if Sasha is scum all his partners would probs be in {cdb, skitter, exilon, egix} and we have a pretty high chance of winning the game from here if we follow that.
Knee jerk reaction is to poke this but it makes sense. I was thinking I'd possibly gotten rusty but rn I'm feeling rather sharp.In post 294, Inferno390 wrote:So where do I fall in all of that Ausuka?
I like this post. Feels smart.quote="In post 319, u r a person 2"]oh and for 2) above I am not sure it was anymore[/quote]In post 301, Ausuka wrote:We have 5 days left; I actually think this would be a perfect time to run up Sashaddin and give intent, so if he's actually town and has a claim that justifies leaving him alive, we have enough time to find a good alternative instead of compromise lynching. I don't think running this down to deadline will be helpful and could just cause a scramble. Unless I'm mistaken in counting which I'm 99% sure I'm not, Sashaddin has been at 5 votes, then dropped to 4, leaving him at L-3; that's plenty of room to vote if you want to. I don't think the Ruirui wagon is providing us that much information right now.In post 293, Exilon wrote:Have you considered that it stalled because the deadline for the day isn't over and some of us would like to have more information? Seems like you're relying on some incorrect assumptions here.
In fact, the only reason I'm not voting Sash is because the day isn't over and if I had voted for Sash I would have been hammering him (at least when I looked at the votecount and considered it). And I won't change it now because pressure = information and I like that.
However and for now let it be known that I find Sash to scummier than RuiRui and would rather lynch Sash than RuiRui.If Sasha is scum you're almost definitely town. If he's town you're null-townish. Based on play I feel that you're probably not scum regardless.In post 294, Inferno390 wrote:So where do I fall in all of that Ausuka?Yeah this probably makes Exilon the most suspicious of the Ruirui wagon; it feels like upon being associated to Sasha his reaction was that he had to disprove what I was saying.In post 297, skitter30 wrote:ur post just above feels kinda exactly like what a partner would say
Mmm I don't like this. Later response + dodging the question = looks like he was struggling for an answer and decided to take a cop-out
