Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

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Aloha.

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There’s no reason to claim until endgame. The one town gun is basically a named townie. They should claim if run up.

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There’s not a whole lot of setup to play. It’s basically mountainous for all intents and purposes. Just ignore the setup and scumhunt.

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that has a lot of knock-on negatives, though. there are twice as many mafia as town guns, so even if pressure is allocated totally randomly (and I mean, the whole point of playing the game is that we're hoping to be more accurate than that), we're more likely to hit the mafia than the gun. at which point they can 100% get the gun to claim anyway if they want, and then we didn't have the conf town voice throughout the day. Also shoot testing has non-definitive negatives cause there are 8-10 roses.

It does kind of stink that the mafia learn the one person who is safe to shoot, yeah, but the only way we avoid that is by only running up town today and tbh I feel like killing mafia instead.

On computer now so can say words.

There is no reason for the gun to claim right now. That's the equivalent of asking the named townie in a mountainous setup of one named townie, 8 VTs, and 2 goons to claim. It's throwing away the only real power town has in the setup. That said, you saying this made me realize another thing: if we run someone up today and they claim gun, and the real gun sees this and knows that they're mafia, they shouldn't counterclaim. Instead they should just shoot them (on whatever night they can), because they're mafia and the mafia probably took guns (and even if they took roses, it's not guaranteed they'd be on the same night(s) as the town gun). If they live to the next day then the gun can counterclaim but there's no rush to. If we run up someone today and they claim gun, we switch the lynch target but there's no need to counterclaim.

By automatically I mean "have already won by the conventional rules of mafia" not "by the rose condition"

It is also correct that the alternate scum win condition of kill all the roses is irrelevant since there are 8 roses. Hence the gun being literally a named townie with a 1-shot vig.

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i'm not really sure what you're trying to say, hito. Do you think there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today?

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VOTE: popsofctown

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Explain how hito is openwolfing. I think he's solidly town so far.

Your plan to not CC is a little more interesting, but like...it still lets a n1 mafia gun shoot when we could have stopped it,

This is true. I don't think it matters that much. There are only two scum in the game, catching one in any form is enough to give us a very significant advantage. The value of a named townie goes up very significantly if they survive to the late game. Having a conftown d1 who is ostensibly guaranteed to die n1 is nearly worthless.

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I actually did things today when I wasn’t expecting to and will get into the game when I’m deeply bored at work tomorrow.

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i actually had to do stuff today too argh

ceph probably town for calling 88 town

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I'm actually caught up now.

hito/pops/ceph/lld is all pretty solid town. I didn't like pops's entrance but their posting since then is both good and contains things that they'd have had to go out of their way to put in as scum in a way that I don't think would be likely.

VOTE: Something_Smart

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Pine is perhaps a good shot for scum.

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Haschel as well. His predecessor's iso is also very scummy.

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wow damn I really hate this post. LLD has S_S as a scumread but not her top vote, and I have S_S as a townread. but implosion doesn't engage with either of us? It feels like both "try to sell a townread on a wagon they like, but isn't their top" and "try to work out disagreement with townread" are both things you would want to do and I really don't like not seeing either of them. feels very much like voting to be seen voting vs voting to accomplish anything.

I mean. I wasn't really trying to accomplish anything immediate with the vote. I remembered there being another vote already on him, and he seems like a slot that's probably sortable with some focus. I don't really care if anyone else votes for him and I don't have a great read on him yet.

His reaction to the vote in 161 is an interesting brand of very noncommittal. Feels probably slightly town. I don't think he puts the third line in there if he's trying to e.g. avoid ire from me.

I mean, I guess where is the disconnect? What factors would have you wanting to cast a vote without trying to aggregate support or figure out the opposing case from a townread? because my main issue is I can't really see a motivation for implosions vote beyond image.

Why are you assuming that the only possible list of motivations for a vote are the ones that you can come up with off the top of your head?

I can probably list about a dozen reasons other than those you're listing here if you want, e.g.

-To directly sort the person you're voting via their reactions
-To feel out other reactions to the vote
-To pressure and make the person being voted act more readable if they're being obtuse
-Wanton wagoning
-etc

This push feels really contrived.

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VOTE: xyzzy

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I think 174 is slightly town from haschel contextually?

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i haven't changed my avatar in a while

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pops
ceph, lld
hito, haschel
alisae, s_s, cyanjet
xyzzy, pine

ceph is town for tonality, his response to me, the 134/135 thing already mentioned by someone else, the way he townread justincase being consistent with his tone, etc.

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haschel's posting is bad but it isn't scummy.

the good thing about this setup is that we have all of these vigs with which to shoot all of the d1 lurkers!

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As much as a pine wagon is a good thing xyzzy's post is really actively bad. It's almost entirely description of the gamestate and saying things that look like they're things but actually aren't, with basically one actual opinion in it (cyanjet town) and two pseudo-opinions (me and s_s being not strong reads despite presence).

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I also like S_S's posting in these past couple pages. His response to being told he was sitting on his vote looks good.

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FYI: I'm going to be V/LA tomorrow afternoon through Sunday afternoon/evening camping. Don't know if I'll have access at all, probably won't be looking at MS in particular even if I do.

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Implosion justified his vote after the fact in 261 which is pretty similar to the above only even less so-- dislike of a post (229) that is a lot of words to not say very much. Being the master of that myself, I'm not really compelled by that argument.

I think the way xyzzy's post does this is significantly different from the way you seem to. The biggest difference is that even sitting on the sidelines, you've been directly engaging with people. xyzzy's post only directly addressed two people, and both of them are people who directly addressed xyzzy. They're never going out of their way to directly dialogue with anyone. This in conjunction with having no opinions is a Bad Thing.

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Don't like haschel vanity voting S_S after saying his vote is on three people in spirit, one of whom is xyzzy who has an L-3 wagon. I understand it's in response to 296 but it really wasn't that bad of a post, it doesn't say a whole lot but it's not particularly scummy contextually.

I also feel a bit sketchier on hito at this point for no strongly discernible reason.

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It's possible alisae is just town idk. Don't really know how to sort em. I've gone back and forth on how I feel on their reaction to the haschel post which feels like it should be sortable.

Really wish pine would say things instead of repeatedly saying he is going to say things.

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Sounds like your issue with xyzzy doesn't really have to do with using a lot of words to say nothing then, no? Because failing to proactively engage people seems pretty different from that.

It's more the reason why that being scummy doesn't really apply to you. You're both "saying nothing" very broadly, i guess, but you're doing it in two different ways, and the way xyzzy is doing it is scummy because of various contextual factors (the fact they're lurking, the fact that they're not actively engaging, the way their post looks like a generic Scum Catchup Post, so on so forth).

Is it because hito seems like the type to play very similarly as both alignments? Because that's the impression I've been getting.

Maybe. It's like he's the epitome of the Logic domain in Mafia Metamafia, which is not really readable because Logic is very easy to fake as scum. Of course I went and looked at what his domain was in metamafia and he was actually just hitogoroshi without any domains and you kids are probably too young to know what i'm talking about so~~~

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It doesn't matter if the town gun did the kill for anything other than nk speculation, and for that purpose it's probably not too messy of an assumption to assume that alisae was shot by scum/the advantage of knowing that the kill wasn't by scum is probably outweighed by the advantage of having an unclaimed named townie.

That said, Alisae's death if it was from scum kinda points to pine-town. Alisae was the only person really advocating for pine-town. E was pushing me and pops and was willing to jump on xyzzy and S_S but I still feel like pops and S_S are town. Maybe I'm wrong on pops but his posting just has so many tonal things that are annoying to fake as scum and the arc of his read on me is something that's really, really hard to fake, even if it's not exactly committal. It's possible if they're both town that scum killed alisae just to secure a pine mislynch. I don't see much reason for scum-pine to make the kill in the first place unless it's pine+pops and then idk why pine, the scum who has been lurking for an entire day phase, would come out and *hard* bus his one scumbuddy.

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VOTE: hitogoroshi

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In fact, the only real effort I can see is against a popular target (S_S) and two absentees (xyzzy and I.)

You and xyzzy were basically collectively holding the game up yesterday. Why shouldn't town go after you, particularly in a setup with only two scum?

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Because being absent site-wide (non-games do not count, there's a very different investment metric) is NAI. It's usually due to life, and I would think you'd respect my game enough to know that intentional lurking like that isn't really a worthwhile strategy. Especially if it were to start backfiring.

Not what i mean. It's not about lurking being a worthwhile strategy. It's about it being impossible to fully sort a game where it's possible that the entire scumteam isn't playing.

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Idk maybe I just have some leftover annoyance. You're here now so shrug.

I'm not really convinced though.

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I can probably find some examples of things he's done that i just don't think scum is especially likely to do

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The constant sniping at me followed by 270 is not like, a good scum tactic. All it's really likely to do is draw my ire. And then 347 in its entirety just feels like genuine read development, both the part about me and the part about you and joining the xyzzy wagon. His constant interjections with semi-game related things but also having content feels like a pattern that's tonaly consistent with town who is invested in the game but also not taking it too seriously.

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The way he's talked about prodding you is also something that he doesn't really have much reason to go out of his way to do as scum when he's not under pressure. I think he had a genuine investment in un-clogging the gamestate, and the clogged gamestate was definitely beneficial for scum yesterday, reasons notwithstanding.

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I played with him in like 2011 :p

i actually kind of remember him being obvtown (w/ both of us being town) in that game. Not really relevant 8ish years later though.

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I liked her rant early. She hasn't done much since then. She could be scum.

She is on my short list of people I need to sort directly more, along with hito.

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I think my early townreads on ceph and pops still feel good to me. Haschel i don't know how to interact with because he's playing this weird game where he kind of does things at the fringe of everything and he's done things that make me feel both directions as well. S_S is kind of a gut read at this point but my gut says he's town kind of strongly? that might change tomorrow.

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I've seen LLD's scumgame but I don't know what specific features it has that are distinct from her towngame.

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VOTE: LLD

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Not really, but I’ve tried logic and explaining myself. A little frustrated by the nonsense TRs on him.

Okay... but like i also gave logic and explained myself and you responded partially with

I can respect that. Honestly, my case against him is pretty circumstantial.

and then you talked a bunch about PoE, which is not a good reason to scumread popsofctown-in-particular. I understand you're saying you have a lot of confidence but I can't tell if you actually feel that strongly about pops as scum or if you are trying to convince yourself that he's scum because you can't find enough other people to be scum or if you're just scum and this is a ruse, because idk how your mindset is going from "i think pops is scum and here's why" logic to "it's okay, we'll level on him later" acceptance to "you guys are fucking blind" frustration. I don't understand the alisae kill at all if you are scum but this just doesn't grok well.

Lol implo I actually deepwolfed that game, I think I might have left you alive to lose LyLo. I'm not 100% so you might wanna go check.

You could be thinking of a different game. But I looked at my ISO a bit in that one and:

Also, to all the people saying pops is scum, I've frankly had a towntell on him since the beginning of day one, and still do.

aaayy
so clearly, i could read pops flawlessly in 2011 and my ability to read him has probably only gotten better since then?

Implosion: what bucket do you have cyanjet in?

I see the reasoning for townreading, and at least semi-buy it, but don't feel strongly/don't have them as that high a priority to sort because there are slots I expect to be active that I am conflicted about. The last sentence of their last post is a fucking weird thing to say as scum.

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The hito catch on s_s is really interesting and maybe gives hito some townpoints but probably doesn't actually really because it's definitely something he can notice as scum. I don't think it's that large a slight against S_S given what his playstyle seems to be (or at least, people saying that this is his normal playstyle as both alignments), shrug.

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Eh haschel could also just be scum. There's actually a pretty big pool of people who could be scum right now. Even ignoring the people who have shaky-but-real reasons to think they're town like cyanjet there's lld, hito, probably haschel, maybe S_S, my townreads are actually probably not as solid as I viscerally feel like they are

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Holy shit I actually survived

Can you please clarify *precisely* why you thought you were going to die last night?

I kind of want to write off Pine as town completely and ignore paranoia just because of the NK spec. I guess I shouldn't do that with the possibility of a vig shooting alisae and NK spec not being a guaranteed thing but like, if it wasn't a vig shot then I just don't understand why scum-pine *ever* kills Alisae unless his scumbuddy is pops and there's no way it's pops/pine based on the way pine is pushing pops. I feel like NK spec is underutilized these days and scum probably shot alisae partially to make a pine lynch easy today and it's just so... meh. Like, if we lynch pine and he flips town I feel like we go into tomorrow with nothing, and I think he's significantly more likely to flip town. I don't think his LLD pussyfooting is that meaningful because I don't think he's the kind of scum player who would be motivated in that way to specifically play around one town player.

LLD voting Pine is reasonable, but she's not giving any other opinions on anyone else. I understand demotivation (and the MU championship win is cool) but there's nothing really to analyze in what she's doing that she can't fake as scum.

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Alright. Willing to agree w/ ceph and call cyanjet locktown.

What do you want me to tell you all the people I think are town?

If you're town, I'd like you to actively make yourself readable. You giving one scumread and no other opinions is only conducive to that if you happen to be online at the same time as that scumread. Playing slow and reactively is all well and good but you're effectively at L-2 with pine's presumed vote.

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Your vote is garbage as you apparently don't even actually have a read on me, and should know better than to think that any amount of pressure is going to get me to do or show anything.

and yet here we are having this conversation! isn't it great?

Do you have any take on why Alisae is dead?

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(vis a vis a scumread on pine, that is)

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Actually maybe I'm overemphasizing how staunch Alisae was on Pine-town. I thought there were more instances of it but it's just that eir most recent posts were calling Pine town and older ones weren't. Still,

reduction of pressure on Pine and S_S.

Alisae was calling Pine town at the end of yesterday. It seems pretty bad-tunnelly to explicitly list Pine as a person who would be more likely to make the kill. I also didn't really think Alisae was obvtown and the way e was pushing me was almost less committal than I'd expect from alisae town from what I remember if e was scumreading me but that might just be me.

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It kind of makes sense as an encourage-the-status-quo type thing but that definitely doesn't specifically benefit Pine. It could benefit e.g. hito to just shoot highposters since if he's scum his style is going to be a lot more effective in a game without them since he can be more influential.

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I should probably just ignore nka for now i guess. I swear alisae was like, hardcore on pine town and it's unfortunate that i'm wrong about that

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S_S, are you planning to sit on your vote for a while?

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Does one weird kill actually outweigh the way Pine is playing today? Open question.

I'm pretty confused by the NK. It does make me hesitate on pine scum especially because I am kinda aware I never had a chance to make a confirmation bias free read of any of his posts all game so there's that

I don't think Pine's play today has been purely scummy. The tonal inconsistency is scummy but he is actually trying proactively to work with people and fight the apathy. I actually think pushing specifically for "jam sessions" (and doing them) is probably a fairly good overall towntell these days especially in a somewhat apathetic game like this where scum are more likely to just show up enough to stay afloat and let the town drown in its apathy.

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hito just keeps saying a lot of opinions but i can imagine his next post including a vote on lld or pine, or pushing haschel more, or pivoting onto s_s or something. Basically hito seems to be playing in such a way so as to look like he has a very transparent thought process but I really don't see any kind of thought formation that can't be very easily faked by scum.

The way LLD threatened me seems like not what I think her scum MO would be with me pushing her at this point. I feel like if she's scum she probably would have called me scum with Pine by now. That might just be entirely misreading how she plays scum, but it makes me feel like she has actual reads guiding how she's approaching the game and isn't just lashing out for the sake of it. And I'm just unsold on Pine. That vote on LLD isn't materially bad. It's obvious he was going to vote her regardless of his alignment at that point and the phrasing of the post is like slightly awkward but I don't think it's especially scummily so

VOTE: hito

I guess pine is the only other person voting LLD at this point but I really just think this is scum atm

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To elaborate I feel like jumping around a lot with a vote is usually a towntell these days. And I feel like changing your mind a lot is often a towntell these days. And I don't see hito actually showing signs that he's going through the motions of evaluating and re-evaluating reads. He's harping on pops for not using his vote, when hito is using his vote on haschel when there are dueling lld/pine wagons and not pushing haschel, not convincing other people to vote haschel, not trying to convince people to unvote from either of the pine/lld wagons, after he harped on me for using my vote without trying to aggregate support or work with people to sort the person I was voting... he's not actually utilizing his vote, he's just putting it somewhere and complaining about other people who are doing exactly as little with theirs. there's 0 sign of a consistent internal thought process in how he's approaching the game.

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i will - begrudgingly - admit that pine may perhaps in fact be scum

hito's 539 is missing the point of what I said. It isn't about the fact that he was voting a lurker, it's about the fact that he was idling his vote there and doing nothing with it after criticizing me for doing exactly that earlier and criticizing others for doing the equally useless act of not voting. And throw in him giving me a "temporary pass" just for having voted someone today. It just doesn't look like town thinking through whether something will come from town or scum. it's scum looking for easy heuristics to give reads out based on. S_S's 543 is also good. This response:

wanting you to be scum is not the same as thinking you're scum

does not really disambiguate what his actual opinions are.

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if you are town please play the game pine

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hypocrisy in general isn't a scumtell; hito's actions are scummy not because they're hypocritical but because they show that he's not actually putting reasoned thought into how he's deciding whether to call people town or scum, he's just using simple metrics that let him shove people in buckets.

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Also, I'm specifically not asking to be saved. I am comfortable with dying here, but I do require that my views be taken seriously. LLD in particular is classically scum here.

if you get lynched, as town, you're just a dead townie. Your reads don't suddenly become sacrosanct because you flipped town. *especially* if you got lynched. Otherwise we'd be blindly killing alisae's scumreads today. You know this. I know you know this.

"LLD is on notice" -> "i'm comfortable with voting LLD here" -> "LLD is classically scum here" is not going to convince anyone if you do flip green.

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I guess I should just sit idly and wait for haschel to bless us with his wisdom hmm

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Hypocrisy is not a scumtell

What is your current overall take on hito?

Do you think he's done anything he couldn't fake as scum?

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I wouldn't exactly call what you've done so far "cases". You've given a couple arguments here and there. And you're using emotion just as much as everyone else, and calling it unproductive while engaging in it is... unproductive.

Idk. If you're town I just want you to not just bite the lynch. But you just biting the lynch seems like a pretty sensible thing to do here as scum so :hitoshrug: (oh my hito is actually in this game uhhhhh)

Alright here.

No he isn’t. Go back to the scumthread.

Why. You've given two lines of justification for this and it was during a catchup post and you haven't mentioned him since then and neither of those lines has any real depth and I've given like 4 paragraphs arguing he's scum and you're complaining that people aren't using logic and argh

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yeah yeah i want haschel to do things and i want to delude myself into thinking he's town gimme a bit

(side note: pine + hito is not a team that i see anything precluding)

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Also I think hito is townier for that very unnecessary post, but I already was heading that way

I actually agree with this. Or the first part at least.

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Busy days, this game fell off my radar pretty hard. Not that it looks like much has occurred.

Not interested in pivoting onto S_S right now and doubt I will be willing to over pine but I'm happy to hear arguments about him. I could theoretically pivot onto Kagami but honestly not lynching Pine today at this point probably just leads to this game getting even more bogged down tomorrow. And the most likely way we lose this game is it dying to apathy.

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Kinda don't think it's hito anymore. I need to do some deeper diving and I don't really have energy/time for that until the weekend.

I guess hito's wallpost two posts up is a sensible thing to do as scum here, particularly if he's scum with LLD, but idk I feel like scum him would probably end with the conclusion that S_S is scum because he's kind of calling everyone town right now? Not really sure what the deal with that is.

I'm probably on board with LLD today partially because of the way she plays around the pine stuff at the end of the day, along with other towntells being better and poe and etc. I don't think I'm going to flip on cyanjet ever, need to rethink everyone else. I'd call LLD+Kagami right now if I had to but it is also entirely possible that second-guessing myself on hito is really stupid. Kagami's "LLD/hito is the team, i don't care about order" after LLD gets snap voted would make a lot of sense if it is LLD+Kagami.

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I'm leaving my job this week and taking a break so I'll certainly have time and probably focus but I'm a bit disheveled right now.

I think the amount of info people have given for reads is enough and it's maybe a bad idea to be too specific at this juncture? That is to say I'm probably going to hammer LLD because the game seems generally not sensible if she's town at this point (for one, I don't think the way Kagami is talking about the LLD lynch is at all likely to be scum who is trying to secure a game-winning mislynch in this situation), and I'm not sure how useful it is to strongly give reads/analysis now as opposed to tomorrow.

My opinions have shifted a bit and I've found some interesting things but I don't think it's useful to talk about what bc I want to carry the stronger opinions I have to tomorrow if I'm alive without the baggage of having been kept alive after saying them, and I don't feel solid enough to want to try to convince other people of anything atm. I can if people think it'd be useful for sorting me or others but would rather tomorrow.

hito, if you think any of the possible non-LLD scumteams are viable enough to think about, now's the time to explain why.

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my eyes are kind of glazing over reading that post but

I guess what I'm saying is that even if you're not at all convinced on my potential alternative scumteams and think LLD is lock scum, there's a lot of value in pretending it's an option and making people post in that world, so you should just say you think there's a chance they're possible whether you do or not :')

Really don't think this is worth the +apathy of stalling the game for days with a wagon sitting at L-1 if she's scum.

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Alright. I had been looking at the game under the assumption that LLD was scum, and then had a thought that Kagami+hito might actually make sense, then realized that it's impossible because of hammer shenanigans, but then remembered that it isn't actually impossible because scum aren't necessarily going to quickhammer in this setup. And that kind of ruins a lot of the way that I'd been thinking about possible teams. So I'll just lay thoughts out there.

The thought that I had been referring to not wanting to mention is that specifically S_S + LLD is almost nonsensical as a team based on S_S's play. This is of course a useless thing to think about if we lynch scum that isn't one of them today, but is useful if LLD does flip scum. I think there are a number of S_S->LLD posts in favor of this conclusion (e.g. listing her as his first townread early on) but the single biggest point in favor of it is this:

Yeah, after going back and looking, she got pretty quiet after 74, but she wasn't really townread at that time. A few people listed her as somewhat trusted but that doesn't seem to be a situation where you'd strategically drop out and let them forget about that weak read.

Also of note is that two of the newbies, now cyanjet and Haschel, tried to vote LLD in their first post. So as much as I hate premature associatives, I doubt they jump on that bandwagon if they're partnered with her. (But I could see a scum newbie jumping on town, especially the second one to do so, Agoodcivilian who is now Haschel.)

No way in hell does scum point out multiple people that they're going to eliminate as possible partners with their scumbuddy in a 2:9 setup. Obviously, the argument itself is not ironclad by any means, but it's an argument that I really highly doubt scum go out of their way to make.

I don't think any 2/3 of Kagami/LLD/hito is especially unlikely or impossible. I don't see Kagami or LLD's mutual interactions as necessarily precluding a bus (in particular I feel like MS is in a fairly bus-heavy meta right now though I might be biased because the last scumgame i played was mlp). If it's Kagami + hito, I can very much see hito playing the role of not wanting to hammer in this setup, especially after I said I would, so as to still be in it after a possible missed kill. However, I really think both scum are in that three.

The more I look at cyanjet combined with the fact that ceph died makes me really just disinterested in considering the slot as scum. Ceph had it as hardcore locktown. The "holy shit i survived" thing isn't something new scum fakes. That slot is basically a completely free read.

S_S, is my more controversial (apparently) strong townread. I really don't think he's scum with LLD; if he's scum and LLD is town, then opening up the day with an instant vote on LLD seems very far outside of the wheelhouse for what I'd expect his scum play to be; if his play revolves around laying low for most of the game, and it's gotten him this far, I really don't see a reason for scum S_S to open up the day with a vote, even after the semi-shitshow of yesterday's end. The way he's reacted to things in general hasn't felt to me like scum trying to lay low; it's felt like town trying to lay low or not wanting to commit to things. I want to hear from ank why s_s+kagami is the "simplest" answer, if it's something other than a townread on LLD + the fact that she wasn't quickhammered.

I haven't really put a ton of effort into directly trying to read Kagami's posting but I do see the argument over their rhetorical style. This and thinking more about LLD's posting today are my priorities. I'm kind of ironclad in cyanjetslot-town and S_S+LLD not being the scumteam and I can be swayed on S_S but I really want to trust myself on him.

The possibilities of Kagami + LLD and Kagami + hito might both just be paranoia but eh. Kagami's slowness to join the LLD wagon makes sense in both of those worlds. The way hito has been acting today would be congruent with how I imagine scum-him would play today given that scum might be afraid of quickhammering. Specifically I imagine hito is the kind of scum player to try to milk every bit of win probability out of a given situation.

I'm also curious what S_S thinks of the possibility of scum being scared to hammer given his implying he doesn't think it's likely in 795 but acknowledging that it's a possibility in 798.

[implosion]

Left my job today, and will be busy most of the day tomorrow and Friday. I'll find time to process things/eventually vote in the evenings.

Honestly a big part of me wants hito over kagami or lld right now because I'm becoming more sold on kagami+lld being not the team but that's probably not feasible.

While Hito has made mistakes in this game, I don't think he's viably scum unless he's doing a pretty silly slowroll.

I don't understand what you think would be "silly" about this slowroll.

Do you really think hito would quickhammer? Do you really think hito is the kind of player who, as scum, would quickhammer in a situation where it doesn't strictly guarantee him the win?

Keep in mind, the scumteam is almost certainly two Guns. We've seen one extra kill, so either they have two kills tonight, or a kill was blocked earlier and they know that that player is vulnerable tonight. The only possible world where a mislynch isn't game over is if they had two kills N1 and one hit pops. Given pops was looking toward a pine lynch, I don't see him being a N1 target.

This is an interesting angle but I'd also be somewhat surprised if scum took, like, n2+n3 guns. It'd be a big risk. I think one N1 kill hitting pops is entirely feasible and him "looking toward a pine lynch" is a really half-assed one-dimensional reason to entirely discount him as a possible n1 target.

[implosion]

I pretty strongly think hito is scum here. I can argue reasons why but it's a little hollow because I'm primarily strong on it in light of the new flips and by far the most convincing reason fmpov is strong reasons to townread both of you, especially given that LLD is scum. hito's last post yesterday was most likely trying to set up a lynch on an afk me today but I am actually here and more than happy to engage.

[implosion]

Cyanjet was near-100% town and S_S is near-100% not an LLD partner (and also town in isolation). WRT hito himself, I thought he was scummy for most of the game and then his posting early yesterday shook my read, and then I realized it wasn't that strong of a reason to townread him.

I can go through the part of hito's posting that I found scummy if you want. 531-32 is a lot of my thoughts therein.

[implosion]

Another question implosion, why do you feel different than you did in Coalition?

Entirely RL reasons. Mostly that last week was the last week at my job, and so it and the time leading up to it I've been really distracted. If you look at my early game here, it should feel very similar to coalition.

My case on implosion isn't as much why he's scum as much as why you and hito don't make sense as partners barring an explanation for why N2, D3, and N3 went exactly the way it did for one of those teams.

How do N2 and N3 factor into it? WRT N2, pops was suspicious of hito and ceph was both universally townread and suspicious of LLD, even if he was calling hito town. WRT N3, Even if he flipped opinions later, Kagami spent most of yesterday very solidly pushing hito+lld, and I think hito was just afraid he'd be the most likely person to go back to that. I agree it's a little weird? I'm kind of surprised he didn't leave Kagami alive for the chance of me being wrong but it's not like it's an especially weird kill from that point of view. I also don't think straight wifom kills are that uncommon in this meta though I might be wrong about that, and this is a situation where making a wifom kill would potentially be reasonable since most players hadn't clearly articulated where they stood going into night and leaving Kagami, the only player who really had, alive would more than likely make Kagami rethink fairly seriously.

As for yesterday I'm honestly not certain why it panned out the way it did; all I know is that it did. hito flipped on kagami late in the day, and then voted LLD even later. He flipped when the votes were already 2 (kagami+S_S) on LLD and 1 (LLD) on Kagami. Notably he voted for LLD before you re-voted Kagami (and then flipped to LLD), so from his point of view, it's entirely likely that a Kagami lynch actually didn't look likely. One possible explanation is that because he's generally active once or twice a day, he knew he wouldn't be able to quickhammer, and didn't know if I was going to vote before deadline and he had already committed to flipping on Kagami at that point, and figured that getting credit for bussing LLD was better than a possible no-lynch where he waffles at deadline or him awkwardly going back to Kagami and hoping both you and I don't see anything suspicious about it.

To be clear I'm not saying this is certainly what happened, but that or something similar to it would explain the arc of hito's reads and how the wagons formed yesterday with him as scum.

[implosion]

or yeah you could just say the same thing in like a tenth of the words

[implosion]

My really early reads were really bad. My reads like a week into the game were *okay* at least. I was sketchy on both hito and LLD at least until I then separately called them both town again later >.>

My early reads aren't very consistent, and when they are any good I get shot early decently often. Coalition is I think the only towngame I have that's at all recent at this point and in it I also had pretty mediocre reads (given that the two scum were skygazer who I vaguely townread despite cheating-RAS denouncing her, and weiss who no one had any read on bc he lurked all game).

[implosion]

Sure he doesn't *have* to bus, but it's a perfectly valid option for scum-hito to do there, for the reasons I mentioned. There was a lot of ambiguity in how the end of yesterday was going to play out and I think hito had already moved close enough to voting LLD over Kagami that he didn't have an option when push came to shove with me afk. He was likely holding his vote hoping that he didn't have to actually bus LLD but was then forced to when I didn't show up to vote Kagami because he couldn't pivot a vote onto Kagami and he couldn't vote nobody.

As for both scum pushing Pine, I think in retrospect LLD probably did as a bit of a power play and hito just did it because he was emulating the kind of playstyle he has as town. He's very by-the-book in general; hence him staunchly criticizing people that weren't voting earlier. He probably just saw an opportunity to use that to push a bad mislynch. I doubt it was specifically both scum going out of their way to coordinate a push on him. They can each have had their own individual reasons. I'll note hito reacted to the n3 gun claim before LLD did, and that LLD was already pushing Pine at that point; it's a perfectly reasonable time for hito to pivot onto the mislynch wagon. And it's not like LLD went out of her way to lynch an uncc'd town gun; she'd been tunneling him for a long time.

[implosion]

VOTE: hitogoroshi

The biggest thing that would impact it for me, which is also sadly something I would have difficulty answering by myself, is what type of plan LLD would have for endgame in this specific scenario. Aiming for a lynch on a confirmable town is inherently risky by its own right, and it's important to note what kind of prerequisite conditions have to be met for that to be a worthwhile risk to take. It's fairly clear to me that she had taken into account being lynched for it the day after based on how she handled day three, so it's probable that the scumteam either had few options that lead them to a victory (if not only the one), or it was the simplest option they had.

I think this is overanalyzing things; like you mentioned, Pine had lockscummed LLD. As soon as Pine claims gun, from LLD's point of view, if he lives to shoot, he's probably gonna shoot her, so she isn't making it to endgame without him getting lynched. The prerequisite conditions to take that risk from her point of view were probably met irrespective of any plan she had for winning the game long-term.

With this in mind, the biggest key to me for sorting hito as either alignment once and for all is whether he necessarily had to push the game towards both specific lynches D2 and D3.

That said, this is kind of fair; it's maybe a bit reductive to say that he "had to" do anything, but I think he may have felt like he had to push pine (to keep LLD alive longer and give more options in endgame) and I've explained why his arc in d3 makes sense from scum.

I'd just like to note that this can potentially be observed from another angle.

If LLD was the primary wagon at the start of day two with someone who wasn't entirely confident in securing two mislynches by themselves, would it not suddenly make sense for LLD to be willing to risk a play like that? In this specific scenario, with Pine having lockscummed her and having a vigilante shot if he isn't lynched that day, it would be very important to secure the other slot's spot in the endgame as much as possible.

This obviously still applies regardless of who the second scum is, but it's more pressing in this case assuming that the suggested implication is that implosion is a weaker scum player than hitogoroshi is.

I don't know how strong the absolute strength of hito's scumgame is generally considered to be; the strength of my scumgame has varied a lot over the years, but if you want nice relatively fresh meta, there's MLP available. I got lynched d2 but I was being very much powerbussed by both scum and there were a lot of townies (e.g. bins, the worst) who iirc had me as strongly town until I died or at least shortly before. I think I played a good game overall in it.

I think both me and hito are probably fairly confident scum players.

[implosion]

town never change their minds, town are never uncertain, etc.

I feel like there's not a whole lot to say. If either of you want to talk I'll still be here on and off for the rest of the day but if not you should just make up your minds because spacing out doing nothing for 3 days isn't gonna get you better reads.

[implosion]

[implosion]

:\.

If you hammer me then so be it. But it's really, really telling that hito played scummy throughout the game and that S_S is the one looking at his play before d3 at all and blake seemingly isn't, and that blake is acknowledging that she could have been pocketed in a situation where hito as scum literally has to appeal to like two people.

[implosion]

I find it likely that a scum posturing onto that wagon will need to pull the trigger on it, but I also believe that it would be far more likely for scum to be on the wagon for longer than just waiting for the hammer vote.

This reasoning is scurrilous because LLD was tunneling Pine for a long time before his claim. hito might have just been reluctant to actually jump on initially because of how hard his scumbuddy was pushing it.

it makes more sense to pull the trigger on her immediately instead of waiting awkwardly for people to spew information that can potentially clear them in MyLo.

Like I said, I'm pretty sure he just thought he could get a Kagami lynch for most of the day.

[implosion]

GG.

The setup on average is probably a bit townsided. The setup as it was instantiated here was probably pretty even. Having a more even gun/rose split is probably better for town. I think it'd be better at a higher player count as it was originally conceived; at this player count it's okay but idk, I feel like the concept would shine more at around 17ish?

I really really disagree that scum has any real incentive to pick rose in this version. If I was town I was planning to pick n2 or n3 rose (undecidedly); as scum it was really, really obvious to pick guns. S_S was wondering why scum didn't take two n1 guns; we more or less made our choices separately. LLD opted for n1 gun (i assume she needed to be able to claim it if the split hadn't been so one-sided) and I opted for n2 rather than n1 with the logic that (1) there could theoretically be a high preponderance of n1 roses, (2) if there are relatively few roses then having kills on later nights is potentially more valuable because we would have more information about what players are holding the roses. At least I think that's what my reasoning would be.

[implosion]

I think the setup should be crafted in such a way that both town and scum have incentive to pick both options.

[implosion]

I don't think town should blindly take n1 options. In particular, town who are rarely killed n1 and plan to take roses ought to take later roses. I think there's other valid justifications but that's the simplest.

[implosion]

I do agree that the theoretically optimal strategy for town is some kind of mixed strategy. Even within the realm of "only pick n1 _____", you can game it by figuring out the optimal ratio of gun : rose and basing your probability on that.

[implosion]

hey i also shot scum in kuribo in wonderland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[implosion]

(let's ignore the other part)

[implosion]

I’m fine with it