SIR Disease Mafia - Game Over!

[Auro]

damn I've no other townreads

Wtf dude stop scumclaiming, I'm obvtown

[Auro]

ETL what's your read on me, and why?

[Auro]

TBH the more you post the less I think you’re town.

Which posts specifically?
And why am I not a candidate Mastina partner, like 5G or Hoctac?

[Auro]

TBH the more you post the less I think you’re town.

Which posts specifically?
And why am I not a candidate Mastina partner, like 5G or Hoctac?

This makes me think your grasp of how reads work is lacking. I’m mobile, don’t really care as much about this game as I once did and don’t really care enough to go pick out specific posts of yours that I don’t like. It’s an overall feeling. Furthermore, asking me about my read on you doesn’t seem very productive.

A majority of what I've been doing that I hazard affected your read of me is my defense of Mastina and push of you; yet you find me independently scummy but did not draw any association between us. And when I ask you about it, you instead say my grasp of how reads work is lacking? Because I wanted more clarity on how your reads work?

VOTE: EspeciallyTheLies

[Auro]

I did explain how my reads work auro, js.

Sure, but I feel your read on me is a bit iffy (not the read I feel you should be having either case), your thought process there isn't transparent and you're being reticent about detailing it.

[Auro]

Are you willing to lynch Creature today, then?

[Auro]

Auro, would you trust me if I told you I likely am as close as double mafia to just solving this game again?

I wouldn't, for reasons
There's one minor, but important reason for being Mastina!scum btw. Tell me if you see one. You'll know why it can't be outed.

[Auro]

Auro, would you trust me if I told you I likely am as close as double mafia to just solving this game again?

I wouldn't, for reasons
There's one minor, but important reason for being Mastina!scum btw. Tell me if you see one. You'll know why it can't be outed.

In fact, you should

know

if you can guess my "reasons" in the first sentence.

[Auro]

this man has 400 plus posts. Can anyone think of any hard stances he's taken with in depth reads/content to back it up?

It's his wild inconsistency and complete free-flowing thought (or lack of it ) that's towny

He's not a slot you should evaluate as a "normal" mafia player.

@Vecna I am disappoint

[Auro]

Elements indirect town @Creature

[Auro]

Talking about anime, I started Kakegurui and I LOVE IT

[Auro]

Now that I am top town by a few slots I will only fluff post for the rest of the day

[Auro]

You are right. Every fluff post of mine is a Moment of Brilliance too.

[Auro]

Ooh so Elements is like 78% Nitrogen and 31% Oxygen

Nevermind

[Auro]

31% is way more than normal Oxygen level. That high and stuff would be spontaneously combusting. Not to mention it adds up to 109% already without the other components.

Hey, Math isn't my stronk suit

[Auro]

can you show me some games where you kinda buddy a player and then "RVS" vote them?

Nero is learning how to use meta properly from me, this feels nice.

[Auro]

Sincere feelz, she's been complaining lesser as the game progresses, town

[Auro]

Like a hyper child I'd rather not deal with and take some aspirin and a long hot bath. I basically put him and hotac in the same pile. Nutty with a side of fruit.

So basically I'm Calvin?

[Auro]

I would lynch Ari over Ari any day

[Auro]

I'll be V/LA for a couple of days, will appear here sparsely probably.

[Auro]

UNVOTE: Aristophanes

As I expected, all the dodgy slots floated to the first opportunity of a lurker wagon

VOTE: Voted

he asked to sheep, Hoctac said sheep him, and he sheeped, this appears the most dodgy to you?

[Auro]

Ok part of Quick iso looks awful.

VOTE: Quick

any other thoughts Gobble?

[Auro]

Auro nullscum

Nice scumclaim buddy

[Auro]

A DECLARATION OF WAR

VOTE: Aristophanes

I have found a member of the C̷̡̯̯͉̪̜̭̦̮h̲̤̞͉̲̹̭̞o͘҉͔̳̮̣̻̥r̗̱̖͞à̧̖̹̼̫͖̞̰̥̤͞z͎͇̠̖͈̩͜ͅo҉̥͇̺̬̪̬̹s̙̫͙̥̱̣̜͎͘͞͡ ͏̤̭͉̠̜͇̫̭͜C̡̳͞͞u̥̜̲͖l̶̰̫̥̩̹t͕̘͙̪̯̪͚ͅ.

=_=

He will

PERISH

.

I love this post

[Auro]

Auro is obvscum.

Nice scumclaim, buddy

[Auro]

This appears quite dodgy, yes. Does it not strike you as such?

No. It's weird, yes, scummy - no. While you can infer just from Voted's tone in that question that that's a meme in spirit, it should be more apparent when you look at Voted's play.
I've done the same myself before.
I can bet that regardless of who called themselves obvtown and who they said to sheep on, Voted would follow-up and sheep vote.

There is another specific answer I'm expecting from Vecna but yeah^

[Auro]

yOu CanT rEAd mE b00N

That's why

[Auro]

You have this fence sitting feel I felt when you were in Boon There, Done That

Okay - let's assume that your assessment of my meta is accurate.
Do you think that's my usual scum meta?
Do you think I was not aware of how I came across in that game?
Do you think I'm not capable of faking my "non fencesitty" town meta?
What do I gain to playing to that meta here?

Ty

[Auro]

Which doesn't answer the first question - you think it's a subconscious feature in my scum meta in general?

I explicitly mentioned I was playing the way I did in that game privately, and also had used that play to justify my not being groupscum to Conspire.

So tell me what the difference is between what I thought I was intentionally doing and what I subconsciously let out.

[Auro]

That was said because I can’t 1v1 right now ^

Dude you're such a tease, my break's getting over

[Auro]

I say it every time he suspects me

[Auro]

Ugh, I think I'll have to log out and just resist

[Auro]

Auro is obvtown

Nice townclaim, buddy

[Auro]

Nice townclaim, buddy

[Auro]

Man this game easy

[Auro]

This appears quite dodgy, yes. Does it not strike you as such?

No. It's weird, yes, scummy - no. While you can infer just from Voted's tone in that question that that's a meme in spirit, it should be more apparent when you look at Voted's play.
I've done the same myself before.
I can bet that regardless of who called themselves obvtown and who they said to sheep on, Voted would follow-up and sheep vote.

There is another specific answer I'm expecting from Vecna but yeah^

@ari, no response to this?

[Auro]

Saudi Dad posted

[Auro]

VOTE: Aristophanes

Chainsawing the chainsaw

[Auro]

i wanted this to be a long chain of people recursively chainsawing

[Auro]

I maintain that I’m the best lynch option for today. Highest amount of info from flip, healthier game environment. For me and for you. Win win.

I'm voting you because I agree with your reasons in this post, so are they flimsy bullshit reasons, or good reasons?

[Auro]

coded message?

ooo

[Auro]

A coded message back at Saudade:
לעולם לא מוותר לך
לעולם לא אאכזב אותך
לעולם לא מתרץ
ונטוש אותך
לעולם לא אביא אותך לבכות
לעולם לא נפרד
לעולם אל אספר שקר ופגע בך

[Auro]

A coded message to both Saudade & Auro

לזיין אתכם
המשחק מבלבל מספיק בשבילך להקליד בשפה שאיש לא יכול לקרוא בלי תרגום של גוגל

It got old A50, I think the game will be hard to parse if people keep spamming in Hebrew now

[Auro]

VOTE: ETL

[Auro]

The reaction when you call the AtE bluff.

[Auro]

VOTE: TSE

Sheep me

[Auro]

VOTE: TSE

Sheep me

VOTE: Auro

VOTE: Jake the WOLFIE

[Auro]

VOTE: Tchill

Tchill is a townie dude my man

[Auro]

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
This should be more interesting

[Auro]

How even do you figure!? XD

We are doing 0% wagon analysis, remember?

[Auro]

Why Davesaz, Creature?

[Auro]

Aristophanes, why not vote Flavor Leaf?

[Auro]

More votes on FL, please.

[Auro]

fake claim

It's an obvious fake, therefore a meme.

[Auro]

Pretty sure I don't care about that.

So is your reasoning "meme, memers are scummy"
Or "Scum are faking with plausible scum motivation that puts them >rand scum"?

[Auro]

I see something that looks like a fake claim from someone I have thought was scum.

The meme if it even is one (not something I'm qualified to judge) is something I flat out don't recognize or care about.

People who want to screw with things for lols shouldn't play mafia

. Though we do need enough warm bodies to actually fill games.

Okay. I have a fair judgment for what could be construed as a meme. Some objective indicators are <how implausible is the claim itself> and <how does it fit with the context>.
The former is pretty obviously fake.
The latter - it fits with the entire discussion about doing 0% wagon analysis, and people saying earlier that they would treat the wagon as all town.

These "memes" are harmless. Hoctac's not exclusively been playing in memes. Memeing seems like more of a cultural thing, and unless you can make a case that a majority of players would indeed take such a thing seriously (versus you being alone in not recognizing such a meme) I think it's baseless to say people who post these shouldn't play Mafia. If it only impacts your personal solving... there are people to point such instances out.

Do you think that is a scum-motivated fake claim designed to get town to "trust" that the wagon is mechanically all-innocent? You're taking some very surface level illegitimate reasoning to justify your vote on a slot you suspect, and doubling down on it. This the best solving you can do?

[Auro]

Why is no one at L-1 yet?

Everyone on the ETL wagon is conftown.

is this true?

Perhaps my own judgment of others' judgement is wrong then.

[Auro]

you, hoctac and mastina are the scummiest players atm.

dave and vecna's slot are my top 2 TR's.

I feel like you've gotten a lot of this reversed.

Tl;dr give me points for why Hoctac is scum and Dave town, for starters?

[Auro]

Btw, infected should claim

[Auro]

Do you scumread Ari, TChill? Did your stance on Ari change through late D1? Describe the progression.

[Auro]

Read his posts with a Tyrion voice, it's a lot more fun

[Auro]

Man I'm only 10 pages in. I ain't being thorough any further especially considering this is a cult game.

I was gonna be very surprised if you read through all 114 pages You should read the few pages leading up to the end of day 1, too, I'd say.

[Auro]

Early scumreads on Auro

Nice scumclaim, buddy

Ah, I see you're a man of culture as well.

[Auro]

Scum: Auro, Nero Cain, Vecna, mastina

So Mastina and her 3 locktown reads. Perfect.

[Auro]

this seems like way more effort then Dave has ever put into a game.

Have you seen him put this kind of effort as scum before?

[Auro]

Where art thou o Greatest of All Hens?

[Auro]

more Dave votes plox

No. While I found his rather unnecessarily annoyed attitude a bit scummy, I think as scum he'd continue to exhibit and direct play with that attitude exclusively.

Posting a readslist with some progress towards a solve doesn't fit with that. If the intent were to "look towny" he'd probably easily have more solid stances on most of the plist.

[Auro]

11. Nahdia - catch up looked town motivated

She literally called the gamesolving towny slots (even if you disagree on Mastina) scum and peaced out after 3 posts. What town motivation?

[Auro]

@auro. Why do you believe ari is scum? im about to try and find out but im seeing town here.

He beetlejuiced in D1, and his stances seem a bit... weak, a lot of buddying. The relative lack of content is not AI given my experience with him. This is not a confident read.

I was interested in your progression on Ari late D1 when you said you have to re-read: so does that mean you had no opinions of him D1?

[Auro]

Is your question because of her reads you disagree with?

The answer is pretty straightforward. I saw stuff, thought that's someone talking their way through getting into the game, and instinctively pegged it as town-sided. It's not a strong read, just an impression. Though I will say those few posts gave me 10x as much AI information as I have on 5G for example. I haven't even oriented which replacement is which slot yet. That list was a dump of what I could remember during that ~5 min of writing.

I would probably ask the same regardless of the reads she stated.

If it's just an impression, OK - I just don't see any solid reason for that content to have come

from town

specifically. Reading a few pages and stating some reads is not at all far-fetched for scum to do

[Auro]

Iirc you don’t post much when you’re scum.

I dont feel like this is accurate but I have done it one game just to see how it is

I only remember the one game though.

Was it this one? viewtopic.php?f=3&t=82957

[Auro]

Lmao he’s actually posting in this one though.

That's why I linked, he said he did post higher as scum in one game to see how it is, no?

[Auro]

You're right.

[Auro]

Wasn't in love with Masina's reaction to getting scum read and the "as promised" seems slimey to me.

Can you describe the former, and "as promised" what was that about?

[Auro]

5. This game possesses modified win conditions. They are listed below:
5a. Town Win Condition: Eliminate the mafia conspirers and all infected players.
5b. Town Alternate Win Condition: Have half or more of all living players

gain permanent immunity

to the disease.
5c. Mafia/Infected Win Condition: Gain parity with the town.
6. Twice per game, mafia may kill any player that they choose. Aside from those two instances, mafia possess the ability to factionally infect a player and to

kill an infected player

each night.
7. Infected players will flip as "XYZ Role changed to ABC role" as appropriate.

Some mechanical deductions, dunno if they were arrived at earlier but here:

• Immunity is a thing.
  
• Either immunity is a preventative thing, or an effect that happens after infection.
  
• If it was the former (i.e. once infected, forever infected) there's no reason for scum to be able to kill an infected player. Therefore, we're in the case where
  infected can be cured
  .
  
• If infected can be "cured",
  they would not possess knowledge of the mafia team
  .
  
• Thus, the infected have a malleable win-con, in that they
  choose
  their win-con. The aim of the game is to win. If it was
  certainty
  that a claimed infected could be cured, and they have a honest belief that they have equal/higher chances to win as town than as infected, they can freely out; I wouldn't consider this as throwing, and I'm surprised why the mod thinks it is. Although it's not a certainty, I think it has decent chances.
  
• -Redacted-
  
• If an infected person was trying to play to the infected win-con without outing, and given that we've deduced they don't know the scum team, how would they approach the game?
  How would their approach differ from D1 in terms of achieving the lynches they want?

I've redacted one part of these deductions for a reason, so don't ask

To hone in on infected, simply find players who were making genuine stances on D1 and aren't now.

[Auro]

Auro is least likely in that list but most dangerous.

Flattering.

[Auro]

Apart from Quick what thoughts do you have?

[Auro]

There are two differences with normal cult games: the lack of information (making "playing to the win-con" awkward), and that it's well within town motivation for town to "cure" an infected player (versus in a cult game where the culting action isn't really mechanically incentivized towards one player), so the same metric doesn't apply. In a normal cult game, if you play as though you want to be culted, you're also painting a target on your back (and I think it's ethically totally fine if you can pull this off without being detected, too, so I disagree with the conclusion anyway so w/e) leading to possible lynches, while here it's flipped.

[Auro]

I'm quite certain there's an additional mechanic of a specific type that counters this break, so having them claim and then curing them is better.

[Auro]

@Voted's other point: Yes, cheating does break the whole point of the game, and his hence banned. So?

@Aristophanes:
The mod's 1114 post implies they would know; otherwise you'd have to be playing to an unknown win-con and that's just dumb. Also, that would count as a secret win-con, technically.
I'm sure at least just being infected wouldn't allow you to infect someone, but yeah, certain roles might.
The goal might be unachievable, but I'm outlining a method where you could catch them if they try playing to the infected parity win-con.

[Auro]

If they really don't find out that same morning then I would expect that cures must occur before they are notified. That would imply that getting cured is ineffective on people who have changed wincon to infected, which might imply that true infected do gain knowledge of who their wincon includes

I already addressed this; if this is the case, in what scenario would Mafia want to kill an infected person?

[Auro]

okay stop. STOP. the setup spec needs to stop. scum thrives when the game is in setup spec mode since people aren't actually hunting them. they can easily participate without having to fake stuff.

we're not just going to conveniently stumble into a game solve, or at the very least we shouldn't bank on that. our mod/reviewers definitely did their due diligence. We should be actually making cases and trying to form wagons here. that's what i want to see.

people actively trying to continue this setup spec convo are scum, starting now.

What's

easy

is calling out setup spec which both informs town on how to approach the game, and also refines scumhunting as being scummy.

Kinda cool how you spend a whole post doing this, and asking for cases and wagons, while not providing any of your own. How about you start?

VOTE: Nahdia

[Auro]

Scumhunting is never scummy. I have no idea where that thought came from.

Bad sentence formation: I was saying that the setup spec refines scumhunting, and therefore calling that setup spec scummy is bad.

[Auro]

I believe none of those things are AI for Saudade, and also for certain weak unstated reasons he's a better lynch later into the game. His play is pretty poor on a surface level, but I actually townread him mildly for it - I doubt that as scum he'd just not have stances at all and make zany posts which would only net more votes onto him.

Can you case Mastina? That would be more interesting.

[Auro]

it seems likely that there are ways for them to be cured.

I am not advocating lynching them, but rather identifying them.

[Auro]

I've seen a lot of slots call Mastina scum, and no strong reasoning. So I'm curious to know all of your cases.

[Auro]

Town who do that come off as "i'm not putting too much thought into what people think of me" whereas scum who do it read more as "i don't want to take any stances besides ones i can find a hard justification for but i'm still trying not to fall too far to the background" (see: the mastina vote, his apparent "scumslip" on ETL which he didn't follow up on)

I know that that applies to town in general, but my experience with and knowledge of Saudade shifts that. As to the other part, yes; identification so the cure targets are easier.

[Auro]

Auro’s just OMGUS’ing because I caught him out this game Day 1.

No, it's because I offered a solid defense and you escaped from the conversation

[Auro]

I've redacted one part of these deductions for a reason, so don't ask

OK, but why?

I'll tell you if it happens

[Auro]

overjustified might have been the wrong way to word that.

my point is that his scumread of mastina is presented as if it's concrete. he deathtunnels it until he loses interest later on.

and by barren i just meant like... i mean look at it.

most of it is just filler.

and not towny filler (though auro would disagree i suppose)

This is very typical Saudade play. I invite you to pick out any of his completed games, and see for yourself that he exhibits a God complex while switching here and there, with ample amounts of self-aggrandizing "filler".

However hmm I can join the wagon for the lulz, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

VOTE: Saudade

[Auro]

like I pointed out it was the lack of scum motivation with ETL that made her town. VOTE: mastina

Still up for this, Tchill?

ofc

VOTE: mastina

Case pl0x, unless I missed it - it's time for a SERIOUS discussion!

[Auro]

Hey y'all who's in the mood to read another wallpost???

@Tchill

: I'll summarize what your case on Mastina seems to be.
1. An incorrect application of ETL's meta; and BoP.
2. A contradiction between "I can't gauge ETL's meta years later", and "I've seen ETL AtE as either alignment".
3. Exhibiting overconfidence, leading town to believe ETL was playing a good scum game.
4. Assigning blame to ETL if she was town.
5. Entertaining setup spec from a scumread.

And my responses:
1. Incorrect in hindsight, a little legitimate: but damning? I certainly don't think so. With ETL's behavior, I won't be surprised at someone experienced with her also scumreading her this game. ETL went on that weird emotional tangent right after four votes, and it just got a lot worse with time.
2. That's not a contradiction. Meta can change, but that doesn't mean you ignore that a slot did AtE as scum before - the capabilities remain.
3. Yes, I believed it was a good scum move (up to one point) to throw out pre-emptive AtE. I've seen scum do it recently, townread them, and had them go on to win the game. Such extended self-voting AtE plays are objectively pretty bad if town, and can work out well when scum. Besides, is there any special scum motivation in looking as though you have a super confident read on a player you were once familiar with, only for them to flip town, versus being a little more subtle about it?
4. Yes, ETL does deserve some blame. I understand that she felt unimportant and unheard while being attacked, and that led her to behave that way; but that doesn't mean the people pushing her deserve that blame. If Mastina wanted to "avoid responsibility", it's a lot easier to just not push it as strongly (which she did, consistently) and then try to make up excuses later.
5. Why does the source matter? On a side note, I engage fully with people I scumread also - everyone deserves to be engaged on the chance they're town, even if I'm lynching them. I'd only stop if it they acted in bad faith. And if they posted some wrong setup spec like "infected people can infect others" I could very well butt in regardless of my read on them.

None of your reasons feel solid for Mastina!scum, sorry. If you have time, I would invite you to take her up on her word and actually skim a few of her recent scumgames, and give me an evaluation on how they compare. If you find this close to her towngames and farther from her scumgames, that implies she's suddenly changing her scum meta this game - and that would be a little unlikely, yeah? The farther back you go, the stronger this argument gets. This isn't a matter of capabilities, or whether she *could*, instead whether she *would*.

---

I think Nahdia's being disingenuous of her Saudade push. There are many examples of players to whom you don't apply the "normal" scumhunting principles to catch; and I've pointed out that Saudade is one of them. I feel like that should be clear just from looking at his ISO. On re-reading, noticed that I've stated that in both 3121 and 3156, yet, she doubled down on this in 3227 without appearing to take any of that into account. I don't think Nahdia should be the type of player to pursue such surface level plays. She also discarded the entirety of the setup spec discussion which arguably is beneficial in part to town - all this leads me to think she's just not putting much effort into

thinking

about the game. Apart from Saudade there seems to be no strong read in her ISO: feels a little like scum replacing in, picking someone to attack, and just coasting, does it not?

---

Gobbles' absence sucks. His posts while here weren't at all impressive. I'm surprised Mastina's the only one noting this?
Mastina overestimates me :X maybe I should be paranoid of her pocketing me, hmmmmmmmmmmm
Perhaps it's time to call myself a postmodern Mafia player, since I'm generally accepting of almost all playstyles (save ones which completely lack contributions / are emotion-focused / toxic). I love self-meta (and also see no harm in it - the information's there for you to verify - if they're wrong, awesome, you caught them!) and love listening to people talk about themselves.

[Auro]

Throw at me hard math problems. Prefer probability questions :3

[Auro]

Case Quick. And how come you have no comment on me, Turkey?

[Auro]

I already asked if you were town. I don’t think you answered that though. Do you have a guilty conscience and can’t lie to an adorable dinner bird?

Nero/Auro who are the scum?

This was the question you asked me. Aha, I have caught you red-beaked in a lie! You're a scumbird aren't you?

[Auro]

Also Auro you must hate me for making me case the iso with 500 posts

I'm just asking for your reasoning, is all

[Auro]

I fear that you are the scum, my feathery friend! Find me a decent alternative.

[Auro]

That wouldn't be like me, indeed - so maybe it's worth reading my posts, huh Gobbles

[Auro]

I'm the hero y'all deserve, but not the one you need right now.

[Auro]

[Auro]

Let's just lynch Saudade so no one has to replace in for them

Yes. Let's lynch another person without a claim.
VOTE: Saudade

That's the spirit!

[Auro]

I think doubting self meta, especially when it's being offered as a defense under practically no pressure,

But when you consider that said person *loves* talking about themselves...

[Auro]

I think Nahdia's being disingenuous of her Saudade push. There are many examples of players to whom you don't apply the "normal" scumhunting principles to catch; and I've pointed out that Saudade is one of them. I feel like that should be clear just from looking at his ISO. On re-reading, noticed that I've stated that in both 3121 and 3156, yet, she doubled down on this in 3227 without appearing to take any of that into account. I don't think Nahdia should be the type of player to pursue such surface level plays. She also discarded the entirety of the setup spec discussion which arguably is beneficial in part to town - all this leads me to think she's just not putting much effort into thinking about the game. Apart from Saudade there seems to be no strong read in her ISO: feels a little like scum replacing in, picking someone to attack, and just coasting, does it not?

Nero, TChill, Gobbles, Flavor - thoughts?

[Auro]

Can someone explain how the setup works to me? People get infected and they become scum?

You didn't read the setup yet, at the time of posting this?

[Auro]

I pm'd the mod and just got this, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

Anyone else got the same??

[Auro]

{jake,quick,nero,tse}

Right now I'm

only

interested in opinions about Jake; the rest could very easily just be too lazy to have checked for themselves. Trying to talk about all of them would just be noise.

VOTE: Jake

@Everyone: In your next post, review the case on Jake, and either vote, or explain

why

you wouldn't vote him.

[Auro]

Nahdia is very much active lurking

to be clear, my approach to mafia right now is that i read throughout the day as available and then set aside a window of time in the evening to reread and post. makes me enjoy the game more/feel less stressed out.

I should follow this too! Mafia is very distracting and I usually have lots of rl stuff to do.

Lol y'all play so much when I'm asleep

[Auro]

FL, why am I not in the townbloc?
You townread me in all our games so far; what's up now?

[Auro]

The case on Jake is legit and I feel like there's been a lot of willful distraction off of him. I'll read properly and be back afterwards.

[Auro]

I’m pretty sure I’ve said on record I’ve been gut scum reading you here

Thoughts on QuickySplicky?

So that didn't change, huh Flavor.
Now I can *actually* say "Nice scumclaim, buddy"

[Auro]

You made a weaksauce attack on me, chickened out when I began 1v1ing you, and you've had no interest in sorting me afterwards?
Tsk tsk

[Auro]

A full solve post incoming in a few hours! Time to power-town. :3

[Auro]

Sadly, a day more at least. Sudden work. Sigh.

[Auro]

1. Creature
4. 5G Tower
5. Jake the Wolfie
6. Aristophanes
11. Nahdia
13. gobbledygook
20. Tchill13

Scum should be be completely within this unordered-by-confidence list. I have reasons for townreading everyone else.
I won't be providing them in one place; if you disagree about a townread, I'll give you the reason.
Many slots are solidly town, but I won't be establishing the strength of my townreads - just the reasoning.

[Auro]

In the not-a-suspect list.

[Auro]

A mix of both!

[Auro]

Oka, switch from Quick to Jake.

[Auro]

Quick's scumhunting reflects in his high-entropy posting.

[Auro]

You coming out as infected?

Honest answers only pls

[Auro]

In the not-a-suspect list.

When did that change?

I've not been explicitly scumreading him, I was just trying to get him to play more
Flavor's poor showing, and his thinking he's threatening scum with his glorious entrance - that's town indicative, lol. As scum he'd simply go ahead and actually try to do that, and probably not sheep onto a popular wagon.

[Auro]

If FL were scum, he'd probably try to lead on me after my provocations.

[Auro]

Honestly, you can only believe about 10% of what FL even says.

Yes, but you can also read him off what he says, when compared to what he's actually trying to do.

[Auro]

so much lamist

[Auro]

Chillax, direct town over time.

[Auro]

160 pages and mid D2 though.

A lot of the active slots have towntold, so it's coming down to hunt within the lurker/troll pool; not really because of apathy or bad gamestate or whatever. Apart from ETL's thing there aren't really any ego-fests here, too.

[Auro]

1. Creature
4. 5G Tower
5. Jake the Wolfie
6. Aristophanes
11. Nahdia
13. gobbledygook
20. Tchill13

Scum should be be completely within this unordered-by-confidence list. I have reasons for townreading everyone else.
I won't be providing them in one place; if you disagree about a townread, I'll give you the reason.
Many slots are solidly town, but I won't be establishing the strength of my townreads - just the reasoning.

[Auro]

You're complaining a lot about the gamestate, but it's as though you're not reading my posts.

[Auro]

why am I in this list? paranoia or more so valid reasons?

PoE, and you would be the last I'd want to lynch out of those slots. Our disagreement on multiple fronts.

[Auro]

yeah that's my bad, i forget about recent things pretty quickly when esp. when im distracted

Nero: Mastina locktown reads him; activity and the type of posting indicate town.
TSE: Vecna was pretty much obvtown. TSE's posting affirms the townread, I think I'll figure it out if I'm somehow wrong here

I feel like if Oka is scum here, Jake and Quick could just be town and he's trying to limit scumhunting.

It's unnecessary effort to limit scumhunting when the wagons have already built up between them to this level.

[Auro]

auro doesn't want me playing then i guess ill go into hiding

Where have I implied that? I'm only disagreeing with your gamestate observations. I'm trying the same thing you are wrt your pool - consolidation onto Jake.

[Auro]

I'm not saying don't play, I'm saying chillax there's a difference.

[Auro]

Quick is pushing in every direction, paying minimal heed to his earlier thoughts.
What scum motivation do you see in that play?
Do you find any individual instances of him doing that that seem awkward? There's that A50 thing, but meh

[Auro]

Mastina's Nero read should be BoP'able, and my own read on Nero's play this game, plus my own experience with Nero do not suggest a conflict - so I'm happy with that.

I think you'll agree on Vecna pretty quickly when you see how he was aggressively gamesolving and then resolved to memeing later on.

You're correct that TSE's play is different from his previous towngames and lacks that distinctive oomph. Post-ban TSE is a new flavor, less dominating and slower, that's why.

[Auro]

i mean you disagree with my gamestate analysis but i feel like being distracting is what scum want and have probably contributed in doing so

It's been a consistent feature from Quick ever since his first post, thus gamestate-independent.

[Auro]

Nahdia, let's talk through which parts I'm being naive about.

Tchill13, have you seen scum actually take that strategy before - push all kinds of random but also carrying conviction? Do you think it would look the same when town and scum do it?

Nero, Oka's larger point is that at least they should be the objects of focus right now and not encouraging momentum in that direction atm is anti-town.

[Auro]

Please don't read any of Mastina's wallposts either!

[Auro]

@Nahdia: I did notice the trend of my townreading "active" players, and there are exceptions in both lists (FL, Saudade, TChill13). Not all my townreads are high confidence, and I admit I may be making mistakes somewhere. The PoE reflected my current belief with decent strength! The fact that it statistically makes sense for me to have made a mistake or two doesn't invalidate the approach itself, nor do I think it's naive It's subject to refinement over the course of the game anyway. Townread status is one that has to be maintained.

@Nero: I would still think Oka is town. A scumflip in Jake/Quick would lock him town. I don't really see "restricting discussion between two slots" as a legitimate scum strategy Oka would follow. For that to be the case, town would have to have been progressing towards an accurate direction for scum!him to want to shift back focus: what would be your assessment then? It's only a few of us playing with similar pools to Oka, so I don't see that myself.

[Auro]

Ari, elaborate on the interactions with TChill that make him suspect?

[Auro]

I'm more interested in TChill's posts wrt Quick than the other way round - I'll wait!

[Auro]

The Mod Should Never Tailor An Answer Based On Alignment!

One other way of thinking about this: Perhaps there was some information already present in his scum PT and he read it /misinterpreted it incorrectly before. So he said what he thought he knew without actually PM'ing the mod and only having claimed to do so.

[Auro]

Maybe be misread the answer or misasked the question.

And this can apply to information within scum PT as well, no? What's the reason for not clarifying on how he phrased the question or going into the reasons why he could've gotten that specific answer?
Do you think a mod wouldn't allow a player to explore that, and ban it?

Yes, it is on Jake. I don't think it's a Mod fault either.

[Auro]

No no, I was misreading your posts as an attack on his attacking Jake, the last part is my agreement with you. Nevermind.

[Auro]

That doesn't sound like blaming the mod to me? Just that with whatever info scum!Jake had, Quick thinks Jake had either modified or asked a different Q to get the "No comment" response (accurately from the mod).

[Auro]

Auro, if Quick and Jake are both town how would you feel about Oka?

What answers did you expect? Gimme a set of options?

Quote me pushing Blair at the moment? If you're asking

why not

, directing focus and letting Blair get into the game.

[Auro]

>Knows something from scum PT, or had asked something similar but a little different earlier
>Says it's "no comment" before the majority of people come in to say Jake's wrong
>Refuses to clarify on what he actually asked, because this was a slip

What else would you do when a majority of people said yes after you'd already blurted out that it was "no comment"? Wouldn't say you're stupid, just that you should've asked the mod "if town asked this what answer would they get" to be sure I don't think it's particularly stupid not to.

[Auro]

If I'm wrong on the chronology feel free to point it out.

[Auro]

I'm not saying you lied when you said "no comment" - I do think you believed that to be true.

[Auro]

You believed it was true, and hence it wasn't a deliberate miscommunication.

[Auro]

Hmm. Who do you think is the best vote apart from Quick?

[Auro]

Why No Lynch?

Wouldn't that apply to if you were town as well? I'm saying that the mistake you *claimed* to have made as town, you made as scum.

[Auro]

If you're asking why not, directing focus and letting Blair get into the game.

but you

ALWAYS

push amished and you aren't here so......

I think Blair's high scum equity by virtue of her previous slotholder.
I didn't notice the Amished tell here.
I pushed Amished once, partly as a cheeky response to another slot pushing a slot I townread for it... So that's quite a stretch

[Auro]

I find the scummiest thing about that slot to be Elements play.

Describe.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

Jake! I understand if you're feeling a bit stressed from the pushes. Work with me. Who do you think was scum setting that agenda and manipulating people?

[Auro]

I have no clue how to read the slot as of yet.

The only time we've played in a game together was a jester one if I remember right? So what makes you go "I dunno how to read them" versus reading me normally? Or is that my posts give you mixed signals?

[Auro]

VOTE: Jake

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

Jake! I understand if you're feeling a bit stressed from the pushes. Work with me. Who do you think was scum setting that agenda and manipulating people?

It was in light of your ignoring this.

[Auro]

Vecna's ISO is 95% reactive IIoA noise

and TSE's posts have done nothing to improve the slot.

I believe the opposite - that there's a lot of gamesolving in his posts. Detail to me how he was IIoA-ing and not solving.

[Auro]

Bullshit it was. Because it it was, you would have said so. You don't get to retroactively assign meaning to your naked vote, especially when it makes you look suspicious.

It's inferable. Try harder.

[Auro]

I'm not sure how to "detail" it for you without a giant multi-quote wall, and I'm on mobile so that's going to be a hard-pass from me. Basically, I see a lot of Vecna commenting on site meta, speculating that some things might be TvT but maaaaybeeee nottttt and a lot of goading on interactions between other players without meaningfully contributing to those interactions. Early Day 1 was especially Stark in this regard.

I'm confident if you skim Vecna's ISO with the above in mind, you'll see where I'm coming from. I suspect you had a particular interaction with Vecna at some point that gave you the impression that he was game solving, and I can respect that, but I do not believe that is the case in the big picture.

Yes, I know that he did throw out some fluff, but my assertion was that his gamesolving and non-fluff content was a lot more than 5%. Sure, I'll give it a skim once again, I'll case the opposite if I've time.

[Auro]

He's just a relatively chatty dude.

[Auro]

Why when I'm sleeping

[Auro]

Also, wtf, lol, Mastina is town, pplz

[Auro]

@Mastina: Recap on TChill and Nahdia town?

[Auro]

You could've colored the LHS Red too, for clarity

[Auro]

Left Hand Side.

[Auro]

Quick, perhaps you should rename yourself to "Quirk"

[Auro]

I'mma take a small break from this one.
TSE: Hoctac's at least playing, Jake's just absolutely refusing to scumhunt - he's likelier and also a better lynch, no?

[Auro]

OkaPoka can you get me up to speed?

[Auro]

Mastina produced significant content today, no? That should point to her being uninfected. The "original PM" thing is funny.

[Auro]

I concur with A50, I don't see the slip there. Do explain.

[Auro]

I had assumed scum can't infect and kill someone in the same night. I don't think infected auto die the next night or else there's no reason for scum to be able to kill them.

[Auro]

It's a slip only if that's true, no?

[Auro]

I'm not convinced that the "slip" is even true. It sounds to me like killing infected players is optional for the mafia and, given their win condition, it seems like maybe they wouldn't even want to?

There are multiple reasons they would want to, I would think.

For one, it's a guaranteed -0.5 on parity requirement with total town, given the fact that they can get cured later.

Infected will be pushing randomly and may fail to align with scum, so a bunch of infected people in thread may not allow a favorable outcome (since they can end up lynching each other as well and it feels better for scum to lynch town over infected).

There's also the fact that this mechanic allows an indirect threat to infected people. If you're infected and you play to town win-con anyway, scum can kill you and lock you as that alignment with no chance of a cure.

There could be roles that can be killed only upon infection.

[Auro]

I have to re-calibrate a lot of my reads. Oka, what do you think about Blair and Nahdia?

[Auro]

Do we actually know this to be the case?

The idea has been floated a few times by a few different people but I thought that was all setup speculation.

I strongly believe so.

Infected players should have the ability to be cured, since if the only counter is preventative there's no real incentive to want to lynch them.

And if infected players can be cured, they can't know who scum is when they are infected.

[Auro]

so I don't make the cut for infection targets huh? Interesting

[Auro]

But what does it tell YOU about Mastina, Ari

[Auro]

I forgot you in the list.
Yes, you make it, for the same reason farside/Turkey/Miss Lynch would.

Haha, I thought you found my scumgame too easy to fish out.

[Auro]

Who specifically

[Auro]

Towncase Hoctac. I townread him too but I wanna see your thoughts.

[Auro]

Ari is now a townread

[Auro]

He's stepping up in terms of solving and aggression, I feel, and his pushes are valid.

Tldr gut feelz

[Auro]

So you're claiming infected?

[Auro]

So you're claiming infected?

What is your mind not getting? I'm a jester. I self-hammered and am now celebrating.

Well, there was some discussion that infected would play like Jesters since their lynch is preferable to a scum lynch

[Auro]

one, doubles mafia, where I was playing incredibly suboptimally

Didn't you arrive at the correct PoEs along with me and Vecna in Doubles?

[Auro]

Not gonna lie, I wanna start hard defending Jake for the lulz to see Oka react to it

[Auro]

Nahdia, do you have any biggest points of disagreement with Mastina's reads list? What are the most major ones, if so?

[Auro]

Safe to assume mastina was the scumkill and Blair ended up visiting an infected, yes?

Do we have an indication who either of them visited? Blair initially said they would revisit Jake, but obviously that didn't happen.

I'm a Frail Partygoer. Frail = I die immediately if I'm infected. Partygoer = I have to visit one player each night. If I visit an infected player I become infected and die. I asked the mod what my Night 1 visit was and it was Jake, so at least we know he wasn't infected when I visited him Night 1. I'll visit him again tonight.

Of course, scum could infect me tonight so I die and frame Jake, but... I think it will actually be more telling if that doesn't happen.

Either she targeted an infected person correctly, or the likelier possibility is that scum did indeed infect her and kill Mastina in parallel.
I see no crumbs in her posts though.

[Auro]

Which kinda scares me that he might be the scum that wanted me to join them.

didn't you say you're immune or something earlier? You think I as scum would try despite that?

[Auro]

Mod told me that

yes I won’t be informed of it.

So they probably tried to infect me last night.

Since you should strive to achieve your current win condition, this would likely count as not playing towards your win condition. (Getting cured does not advance the Infected win condition.)

[Auro]

You wanted to know if I was bluffing or not.

In a game with likely multiple doctors why would I, as scum, not only imagine that to be a bluff, but also waste an infect shot to test it?

[Auro]

@Auro
Put exactly 1 of your scum buddies in your scum PoE so I can use it.

{TSE, Vecna} is my PoE rn

[Auro]

Mod told me that

yes I won’t be informed of it.

So they probably tried to infect me last night.

Since you should strive to achieve your current win condition, this would likely count as not playing towards your win condition. (Getting cured does not advance the Infected win condition.)

Oh, nevermind lolol

[Auro]

VOTE: Aristophanes

This and Hoctac are always scum btw.

How either over 5G?

[Auro]

if she did then he's scum

Waiiiit a minute. Her ability wouldn't work on OG scum right?

[Auro]

scum

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[Auro]

Scum, infect me tonight pl0x, I wanna relax

[Auro]

Now Quick will rage and self vote and we all will lynch him and he'll flip town

[Auro]

You of all people should be able to read into things more A50

[Auro]

This presumes that infected learn who scum are

He didn't mean "I will hunt you down if you infect me", rather "I'll end up dragging you down because I can't play".