Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

[DkKoba]

tfw I reread to get a better idea of who I think the solve is but instead I mindfuck myself into a scumpool of 3 people.

[Apogee]

Well I missed a lot of excitement last night. Didn’t even consider Ydrasse as cop but makes sense in hindsight. And joqiza yikes I honestly didn’t see the scumminess from the EOD action that apparently wiser people did. Looks like it’s 4 townie 1 goon based on the nk now.

Post flip rankings

Most Likely Scumpartners: Votato DkKoba
Possible Partner: Enomis, Me
Almost certainly not: Maduisha

I have myself at possible because well I know I’m not Joqiza's partner but I’d question if no one else considers me because honestly looking at myself I could be convinced we were buddies. I have arguments against it of course (not trying some wack strat here) but it should, just like the other 3 possibilities, be considered.

Votato I’ll talk about below. DkKoba I think has to be a consideration with his “meta townlean” on joqiza and how they have played off each other but I’m not sure he is first in POE. Enomis is a possibility but if I’m reading his D2 right he doesn’t strike me as a likely scum partner for joqiza. 9/10 if we lynch votato and DkKoba I think we POE scum.

ok there it is.

Where is the contradiction? Is it that I say I didn’t see much scumminess in joqiza after hedging on him earlier? Well obviously I had hesitations but as I indicated in the first I was not very convinced by the arguments on joqiza. But I left open hearing a bigger case on him. It’s not a contradiction it’s the acknowledgement I missed tells other people saw more clearly

[DkKoba]

no sorry I misread. I'm already so much further ahead bc im doing a more thorough reread of d1.

[DkKoba]

Alright, well. I'm gonna deliver what would be my townreads and go some PoE on it to offer some clarity as to where I'm at because that's the least thing I can offer.

Townreads:

- DK: because of what I explained previously, I think aggressiveness is a good town indication, not being afraid to use their vote to explore slots. Pretty town behavior + frustration at Enomis makes the towny tone more apparent.
- Midway: I scumread this slot until he proved not to understand what I thought was a wifom strategy.

Townleans:

- Ydrasse: Not higher up because of smaller post count that leaves me wanting to see more, but overall mindmelding with her until she pushed Enomis, which I do not agree with.
- Enomis: I think wanting to get rid of Clemency due to policy lynch is towny mindset *even if Clemency is town*, because I understand the logic behind not wanting an afk slot that shitposts when not afk when lylo comes. Frustration towards DK looks genuine to me.

Nulls:
- Votato: has an aggressively profile just like DK but I'm not seeing towntells from them other than that. Interested in seeing more. I liked that he was like the only person not questioning that I like a wagon on myself at first? So at least he understands the value of it.
- Clemency: his posts are fluff and "omg I posted with my alt account, sorry guys, back to being afk." Aside from that, he has scumread DK and promptly townread them back and promptly disappeared. I see an alarming lack of content from this slot but general disinterest about exploring him, so meh. And when I tried to talk to him last time he went away. I can't read this slot.
- Joqiza: post volume is low but content is dense. His discussion with Apogee helped me see Apogee in a better light, but I'm not sure I'm understanding Joqiza when he accuses me. It feels like I answer him and he forgets what I told him...? I need to see more to get a better idea.
- Apogee: I was feeling bad about this slot because of his vote being accompanied by an explicit lack of commitment, but after reading the Joqiza vs Apogee 1v1, I'm more inclined to believe my initial scumlean was shallow and I need to re-assess his slot.

That's all I've got.

[DkKoba]

I'm scumreading Votato and Joqiza but nobody wants to hammer Votato, it seems. And Joqiza goes pressure free after doing scummy stuff for reasons I have yet to understand. I'm kinda frustrated.

[DkKoba]

my brain is so small. i am afraid of being wrong today.

[DkKoba]

I see no 3 way scenarios where I don't have to fight extra hard and read extra hard to not get lynched because in no scum scenario do i see myself as the ideal kill. there is 1 scenario that would make it obvious that 1 slot is scum however and I will hold my tongue on that in case we are wrong today.

I feel like i contributed to this convoluted mess of a game. I can't townread people for shit.

[Apogee]

Ok here is the big pattern I noticed while rereading Joqiza. Everyone remember how votato/dkkoba/somewhat joqiza scumread midway and I? Remember how midway defended me? Remember how everyone attacked midway for saying, yeah, this stuff was scummy but you are town and called that the mother of all scumpair tells? Oh like Joqiza did:

Bear I read through this post, and I feel like in each of the "post by post" points you basically agree with things I've already said, and say that can be scum, but your overall takeaway is that my case is "too weak" and "focuses too much on RVS stage." I agree that after I cased Apogee he had a potentially town-explanation for every action he's taken, but I don't really take that as word of gospel, I unvoted and asked him for an updated list of reads with more depth to them and a case on Clemency which he had promised me

I think Joqiza does this sort of thing quite a bit with votato:

Spoiler: Joqiza on Votato early game

another good way to generate content is to get some wagons going. there are four of us who arent even voting! thats no good. not voting means you arent expressing an opinion, and not engaging with the game is scummy.

VOTE: joqiza
joqiza has been actively posting, but hasnt voted or said anything meaningful iirc.

pedit: ok, then why are you lurking now? i guess you said you forgot about this game, but tsk tsk.

midway, do you really interpret me backing off of DkK as "i give up" that seems like a pretty bad misrepresentation of what i said.

I'm kind of tired because of work so I honestly don't feel like pushing back too much rn but I'd like to know why you think this, I don't feel like it's fair and I disagree that I haven't contributed anything meaningful. Anyway I'll post more tomorrow

Actually your point about me voting is probably fair, I honestly just haven't thought about using my vote like that because in the forum games I've played we usually decide on lynches/pushes before throwing votes up. I get it's kind of different here though.

frankly I don't care whether anyone srs me or not, people in these games or not, my preferred method of towntelling is finding and lynching mafia. Also votatos vote clearly lacked any sort of conviction or backing so I was hoping to pry something more out of him. I think it's funny that no one except u and him have engaged with my slot Koba, I think engaging me isprobably towny because for some reason mafia always tries to avoid engaging with me in these games, that said it's annoying to me when people push on me for dumbass reasons

Alright let's do this, I went through the whole thread again, starting from the top, and I have some thoughts on everyone, here are the notes I've taken. I'll be around for a while on-and off today so please AMA.

Votato

Probably town but still sus in that they constantly start wagons and back off them before any real pressure is applied, their “reaction tests” lack any sort of conviction and any conclusion from them is reached far too easily. Push on Koba was OK but jsyk I think you need way more than that to determine Koba’s alignment. Randomly threw out an apogee/maduisha scumteam without bothering to rr and then immediately caved saying he picked randomly and “gotta generate that content.” By the way, I think it’s funny that as soon as I point out that there’s not enough content for me suddenly there’s like three people grandstanding about getting content, I don’t think that’s even necessarily scum indicative I just hate it lmao. I don’t think votato and midwaybear are a scum team based on their interactions. Voted me with absolutely zero conviction and then immediately unvoted me before I had even responded with anything. Probably still town but the “need to appear active” without contributing to a gamesolve is a red flag. Currently on the maduisha wagon I was waiting to see if they would jump off again but honestly at this point it’s just a behavior pattern and I don’t know how to read into it any further. Light townread

Spoiler: Dodging the votato question

also I want to know if it's worth my time to try to go into the midway vs. votato thing or if we've moved past that cuz I don't really sr either of them but i don't want to probe into the actual arguments unless i have to because they're dense @midwaybear @votato

midwaybear just for you i will read you x votato in the next 24 hours and respond with either my conclusion on your case or an erotic fanfiction

I agree that there is some questionable behavior in the ISO. 1) justifying reads through "VC analysis" -- this is very easily an excuse not to analyze people's behavior. 2) general refusal to provide clarification for reads or follow up on logic, 3) some evidence of flip-flopping on people such as enomis, or at least an inability to express a coherent read

@Quick

Flip-flopping isn't Scummy, it's actually Townie for a game like this.

And I said I would do more work if I make it to D2.

But if these are your reasons, okay, I guess.

Besides, you don't believe MY cases for some God awful reason. Probably because I haven't made a 1,000 word case on someone or because I am not pushing the same people over and over excessively.

I do TR effort yeah.

I think flip-flopping is sometimes NAI but i would not agree it is townie.

i gave you 24hr so you have time to make a 1000 word case too. But I don't need 1000 words. Im still open to a counterwagon

Effort is most NAI, but sometimes it is.

I gave my case within like the first 15 posts or something. Or I just suck at this game and I deserve to be lynched.

Why is votato Town?

I would prefer a wall post, maybe a mini wall post, with posts cited. that is my fetish

votato was townlean in beginning of the game and i stopped reading him and bear. i will read now. but he has been very patient imo.

i will obviously share my conclusions and discuss before i actually hammer

yeah, we know you're a mafia goon.

why did you say mafia goon here? like why specify the role

4. im not interested in convincing you. you've decided to tunnel me. thats fine, i dont need to convince you since youre gonna just confirmation bias everything i say. i just need to convince 6 townies. or really just 4 townies.

here u r referring to midwaybear and saying that bear is "conf biasing" you which implies he is town, but u say you "just need to convince 6 townies" like if bear is 1 townie and there are 6 other townies that's 7 townies and that only leaves you as scum ???

eh i'm gonna wait for votato to respond to what i asked before i go into things too deeply

4. im not interested in convincing you. you've decided to tunnel me. thats fine, i dont need to convince you since youre gonna just confirmation bias everything i say. i just need to convince 6 townies. or really just 4 townies.

here u r referring to midwaybear and saying that bear is "conf biasing" you which implies he is town, but u say you "just need to convince 6 townies" like if bear is 1 townie and there are 6 other townies that's 7 townies and that only leaves you as scum ???

hence the 4 part. subtract me and him.

alright tea that makes sense. what about the mafia goon one

Alright I kind of came into this thinking that quick vs votato might be TvT but I kind of FOS quick after this, like I'm just floored by how quickly he jumped onto the "scumslips" and how he basically wanted votato lynched before he could respond. I feel like anyone with any decent amount of experience should know that these sort of statements aren't really alignment indicative, both town and mafia do this kind of weird shit you see genuine certified scumslips very very rarely. and in fact it's funny because if you look in his iso one of the first posts he makes is this, so yah, he is aware.

I have only read about 8% of the game or less fwiw.

how can we take you seriously then? did you see a scumslip or something?

I pretty much never see Scum slips. I am pretty biased against them actually.

anyway fellas i'm basically gonna hammer quick here in a bit i think my mind's pretty made up at this point. i went thru votato and I think he has some decent contributions today. I really like the push on maduisha starting 337, continuing in 478 and 487, kind of ending with 540 and 587. this push is a lot better and more thorough i feel like then what he was doing previously. now to be fair he did do this AFTER i pointed out why his earlier pushes were kind of weak, so he might've just adapted this game, but in any case he's certainly done more for us than quick has done. i feel like his responses to bear's case in 803 and 804 are decent too btw

Spoiler: hard bus

Alright, going to make the proposal of pressuring Joqiza together today to squeeze tells from him because nobody wanted to hear me out D1 and people don't seem to like the idea of lynching his partner Votato. Joqiza has done scummy shit that I already pointed out before over and over, and he got away with it for free because people were not feeling comfortable from jumping out of the Quick wagon and I think that was a big mistake, so let's get the ball rolling.

VOTE: Joqiza

Furthermore, his fake "consideration" to choose who he was voting was staged and clearly fake. He saw me accusing Votato of being fake with his petition for time and tried to patch it and make it look legit by faking an ISO read. I think it's clear why he hammered Quick regardless of his towntells: he did not want to bus his partner D1 because that's death sentence, but tried to play slightly indecisive so people would think he actually considered it and buy their bullshit distancing.

Imagine thinking that votato and I are a scumteam and I left my partner on L-1 for 24 HOURS. ON DAY 1 LOL I couldve hammered quick at any time and been done with it but I wanted to give him a chance. Somehow despite posting 366 times he didn't even read the game, i don't regret it and i made the optimal decision with the information i had to work with. quick/votato probably TvT anyway II'm guessing I didn't even have a shot at a correct hammer. maybe should have led a counterwagon but i wasn't liking quick's posts at EoD

so i think at this point that there is probably scum in joqiza and maduisha. Leaning towards it being joq. This kill is interesting. It's such a bad kill that it tells me that it was probably not SEs doing the kill. Midway was not the towniest player and certainly wasn't contributing. I don't want to get into wifom, but i think this kill actually clears me. There's no world in which liking midway helps scum!me. Yes he was tunnelling me. But he didn't have a case and no one was listening to him. I had no reason to kill him and the kill implicates me. Actually i think maduisha is on to something here. VOTE: joqiza

This is probably one of the worst posts I've seen since I started playing forum mafia so I want to break it down for you line by line.

“so i think at this point that there is probably scum in joqiza and maduisha” – what is the justification for this analysis? Why is there a scum in the two of us and it can’t be TvT? I’m not even saying I disagree with you but you don’t get to throw out this kind of stuff without any justification

“Leaning towards it being joq” how did you go from being willing to counterwagon maduisha with me to leaning towards it being me? This is a complete 180

“It's such a bad kill that it tells me that it was probably not SEs doing the kill.” and so your conclusion is it was me? Lmao don’t think I missed the missing logical step here which is that “yeah and joq is shit”

“Midway was not the towniest player and certainly wasn't contributing” sure

“. I don't want to get into wifom, but i think this kill actually clears me. There's no world in which liking midway helps scum!me.” LMFAO. For the record, the kill should neither kill nor implicate you, it could come from you as scum trying to remove a threat, it could come from scum outside of you trying to frame you, and any evaluation of your slot should use the nightkill as secondary information to your overall body of work this game. Anyone who tries to pivot off the nightkill to justify a position is on my radar rn. Ur making me wish I hammered you

“Yes he was tunnelling me. But he didn't have a case and no one was listening to him.” You had four votes on you yesterday

“I had no reason to kill him and the kill implicates me.” See above

“Actually i think maduisha is on to something here.” you better have a good explanation for this complete 180 on maduisha because last I checked we were on the same page. She is accusing us of being a scumteam btw did you happen to miss that LOL

Seriously does no one find this progression of events sus:

1. Maduisha: I think votato and joqiza are a team, so I'm going to vote joqiza
2. votato: I think Maduisha might be on to something, so I'm going to vote joqiza (?? LOL??)
3. Ydrasse: Maduisha and votato bring up good points, so I'm going to vote joqiza

votato why are you simply voting me without acknowledging that most of Maduisha's read is predicated on you being scum with me? And Ydrasse why did you simply sheep them without pointing out this contradiction?

This is more out of frustration than actual read but VOTE: votato until I get an explanation for the way he's played today

When he dodged the votato question he pretty much picked the two weakest things to push on, and therefore make votato look better coming out. Heading into d2 it's pretty clear they saw bussing necessary to survive.

DkKoba analysis next

[Apogee]

Joqiza on votato is lots of lowkey shade without real pressure or goal of doing anything to the slot.

[DkKoba]

good luck with my ISO its probably 4 pages long at this point

[DkKoba]

on the reread.. i feel the same way and its just ugh. i have no confidence here right now. my brain just connects logic to everyone being potential scum.

[DkKoba]

i think we dont need anymore info this game and we have enough to gamesolve.

[DkKoba]

u know what fuck it VOTE: votato

lockscum read. not unvoting. I promise.

L-1.

I hope u intend to give hammer apogee because enomis doesnt seem like they are going to be comingb ack anytime soon.

[Apogee]

I agree actually. Hard part is there is so much to shift through and well there is lots of NAI noise.

p-edit: I want to sleep on it before hammer. I'll intent to hammer midday to evening tomorrow. Votato I would really like to hear your thoughts before this even if we do go through with the lynch on you so if you flip town we have as much info as we can have going into lylo.

[votato]

at no point in this game have any of you seriously considered any of the posts ive made. ii dont see why that would suddenly change once im dead. this is a stupid lynch.

[DkKoba]

pee pee poo poo

[votato]

koba still has refused to offer his solve from town!my pov. they pretended to reconsider, but they isnt really really thinking anything through. that slot is scum. im not gonna put work into trying to solve just to die and get ignored. its interesting that apogee stops lurking the moment we start considering a push there. you can all go fuck yourselves though. might as well hammer now, its not like you even read my posts

[DkKoba]

my pronouns are they/them luv please use em

[Apogee]

Votato:

I'm going to be honest for a minute and just say that I understand if you are genuinely frustrated or unhappy with the rest of us and I'll be sorry if I hammer you and you are not town. But if you are town, getting info to us that helps us after you flip would be one of the most important things you can do and will be helpful if you see something major the rest of us do not.

p-edit. Koba is probably the lynch if you flip town. I stopped lurking when I got back to my PC today. And I read this.

[Apogee]

I want the rest of the thread to check back in before hammer in case they see something really big I don't, but I think we are pretty close here.

[DkKoba]

if you think I haven't considered other angles today thats a lie. you're just the likeliest one based on the evidence. and 2 other people agree. are all 3 of us scum?

where's your reconsideration of my slot in a town!koba pov?

[DkKoba]

apogee theres 0 chance of me getting lynched tomorrow if votato flips town xoxo

[DkKoba]

get that out of your head.

[DkKoba]

FWIW: I was planning on hardpushing votato d2 and was only making the case of ydrasse partner should votato have flipped scum. the cop claim was not expected at all and caught me off guard.

[Apogee]

Why is that? If its you, madiusha and myself alive then I'll vote you and yeah Madiusha would probably lynch me but idk. You, me enomis I figure enomis votes you and idk how my vote falls for sure but there is a chance. If I get NKed idk how enomis/madiusha fall.

p-edit: That was close to what I was thinking as well...