In post 3214, Maduisha wrote:I agree that everything can be wifom, Enomis. But I think we should all admit that seeing an argument someone makes as wifom or not, and seeing the night kill as wifom are
very
different things because the argument from person X can come from scum or not, but the NK comes
100%
from scum and it's usually weaponized so town reads too much into it and trap themselves.
If you want to discuss it regardless to support the rest of your argument, I am not opposed. I'm just saying I don't want to base my final decision on it (like, clearing someone through the night kill implications or voting someone due to the same).
This is why I am doing night kill analysis. Because you and apogee(Who outright voice his disdain of WIFOM) in day 3, makes me feel like scum is just night killing to put himself/herself in the best position today not caring much about WIFOM. The state of mafia now is that everyone park things to wifom, it was the same in my other newbie game.
But each to his/her own.
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
DkKoba had been townreading maduisha for a long time and scumreading you.
for them to pivot onto maduisha as lynch would be bizarre and concerning.
For them to give a really compelling argument for your lynch is more plausible.
I am also pivoting to Maduisha today. I have infact, been townreading maduisha longer than DK. Is me pivoting today bizarre and concerning? If not, how is it different from DK?
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
In post 3218, Maduisha wrote:I understand not seeing Joqiza as scummy until the guilty proved you wrong, I'm not accusing you of not suspecting him. I'm just noting down the fact that people wanted to explore his wagon before the guilty was out and you expressed discomfort in the fact that it was not Votato who got wagoned at day start. A wagon doesn't mean a lynch must happen, so that's why exploration of other options is important, and this was the first time Joqiza was pressured at all, while Votato had gotten to L-1 already the day prior. It confuses me that you'd reject exploring and that's why I included it in the scummy part, but I get it can also come from town stubbornness.
A big reason why I thought that scum was either DkKoba/Apogee was because both of them tried to steer the lynch away from Joqiza by going to votato which most likely, would have gotten through if not for the cop claim guilty.
What do you think about this?
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
@Apogee: Is maduisha town for you just for pushing on joqiza first day 2 or are there other reasons?
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
Alright, here I come with my promised analysis of Joqiza interactions. Like I said before, I don't want to read too much into interactions created by scum because they're often weaponized but I guess it's better to put all the cards on the table to help each other see everything from all perspectives.
I'll start with Apogee:
First interaction with Joqiza, posts #380, #384, 388, #392 (collected together because they're tied in context,
In post 375, joqiza wrote:Alright that brings us to the last read, most important one saved for last:
Apogee
Immediately questions that Clemency townslipped, seems confused by the proposition, leaves door open for enomis to push on it while clearly not actually following the logic, scummy. Has a bizaree wagonomics post in #64, “something with the whole early votes for Enomis feels weird,” yeah it’s funny he got taken up to L-2 by page 2 but handwaving it away as “weird” in this vague sense feels like a way to take pressure off him. Honestly an Apogee/enomis scumteam could be the tea based on their weird interactions and their posts in general. Post #81 is suspicious as well, “Feels like someone there has a deeper motive?” Vague histrionics about wolves moving in and off wagons with no fingers directly pointed. Post #178 is super questionable, how has no one called them out on this. Huge hedging behavior in the middle of what was very probably town vs town without actually trying to defuse it, and no backing for any reads in that post. I have no clue how this guy has skated by this far without anyone putting any sort of pressure on him and so I’m going to start
I'm surprisingly happy that someone has started a wagon on me, mostly because since the only thing I know for sure is my alignment I'll hopefully be able to analyze reactions and push's better. Let's break down this argument:
In post 375, joqiza wrote:
Immediately questions that Clemency townslipped, seems confused by the proposition, leaves door open for enomis to push on it while clearly not actually following the logic, scummy.
Ok in [post]178 I'll agree I was hedging. I was marginally overwhelmed reading through that night. The DkKoba read there was my best take on them, although sure I guess I could have cited particularized information. Midwaybear I wasn't making a claim, just saying my read on them in 81 and 111 still held. Ydrasse and Clem I threw in hoping some conversation might be stimulated, but both of those also felt self-explainatory to me at the time.
------------------------------
I'm happy to keep talking about earlier posts of mine, but I'd also like your opinion on say 233 and 266, where I feel I get a little more mechanical.
This post is by Apogee in response to Joqiza's claim that Apogee is his highest scumread D1. Joqiza accuses Apogee of leaving an easy way opened for Enomis to be scummy and theorizes Apogee + Enomis scum team. Then argues Apogee is scummy because he doesn't back up his reads and defuses interaction to reduce thread movement and hedging himself. Apogee answers by admitting the hedging, denying the Enomis scumpair, and asking for Joqiza to read more into his other posts he might have ignored. In a world of scum!Apogee, this could be an attempt for Joqiza to "clear" Apogee by the end of the interaction, but also implicate Enomis if people were to buy the wagon and actually pressure Joqiza's partner and get him lynched. I think if Apogee is scum, it's more likely that Joqiza was trying to clear him rather than actually push him to death because it was too early for such a thing, but the tie to Enomis is interesting because it can work both ways (Enomis is partner+wants to implicate Apogee, or the other way around). Since this is the biggest piece of wifom material we can get from interactions, I won't give it much weight.
In post 382, joqiza wrote:
I need some time to think about this idk if I like it. Honestly I disagree with this count of vote count / bandwagon analysis before we even have any info on anyone's alignment, like I've looked at this sort of thing mechanically AFTER we have scum in the graveyard and I'm looking for partner interactions but I find it really questionable before we know anything about any of the other players, so 233 seems like a huge huge reach to me. Your post 266 is also pretty weak honestly sorry but it's true, I touched on this earlier but I don't think it's a good look and you're still trying to prevent people from making TvT reads which is exactly how scum behaves.
Tone is just so so unconfident, hesitant to clear anyone but also not trying to push anyone as scum. Could still be villager but just weird to me that no one's called you out for this. If you can do me a favor can you basically revisit 266 or maybe drop an updated read list but basically go into more depth about why you mark certain people as town and why you mark others as scum, I think that would be helpful at least
So re: vote analytics I’m happy to look into mechanics a little but even as you mentioned that’s more a d2+ thing. I’ve also never played a d1 start before, so all of this action is new to me. I will take you and Maduisha both indicating that hedging on claims doesn’t help with pressure as a sign I should be more confident even if I don’t fully feel it. I have no problem doing a more confident reads list but it’s hard early on for me to overcome being a hedger by nature. I can accept if you think some of my content is weak or illogical, but I’m not sure those posts indicate me being scum.
I’m also going to push back (hopefully more confidently) on some of your claims regarding me perpetuating TVT. I think you are a) conflating reads you have now on situations with what information I had in the moment. Particularly with the Enomis early situation. I’d just misread one of their actual claims after they had misunderstood one of my rvs reasons for voting. I was not particularly confident in the situation. Also, at that time although I didn’t think that the scumslip necessarily existed, Clemency was kind of off the wall, I had no desire to shut down content, and prompting some more interaction by not committing yet seemed smart.
Not sure why 233 is questionable I felt the voting pattern part wasn’t a huge portion.
Joqiza answers Apogee's request of revisiting his more mechanical posts and says he does not buy the contents because "wagon analysis is useless without flips". Then procees to hammer again that Apogee's reads need some backing and he needs to explain why he scum/townreads anyone and also says he seems afraid to post confident reads at all. Apogee answers by admitting wagon analysis is more useful when there are dead people + admits hedging is not that useful
but
refuses to let Joqiza pressure him to make a firm readlist at the moment because he hasn't enough information yet to provide one. I honestly want to townread this interaction, because I can see a little of myself in Apogee's response. Not letting others pressure you to make out reads out of thin air is huge for me to see if someone is pro-town or not. It could of course be them working together to excuse Apogee's lack of strong reads to the rest of players and also make it look like genuine exploration of Apogee from town!Joqiza, but I feel like the first half is unlikely because Apogee was under no pressure when Joqiza made these pin-pointy arguments about wishy washy reads and I think he either did it because he knew nobody would jump the wagon (scum Apogee) or because Joqiza wanted to implicate Apogee by squeezing forced reads out of him and I think that's more likely based on the fact that this interaction was not necessary for them if they're both scum and Joqiza could have tried to capitalize other wagons but didn't.
In post 385, joqiza wrote:Hm okay. Let me clarify the framework I'm approaching this with.
We're on Day 1 of a setup with 7 town 2 wolves. How are wolves incentivized to behave? There are a couple things but these are the three points I'm focusing on for right now:
1. wolves want the day to end with a town lynched
2. wolves want to distance themselves from the lynch as much as possible
3. in general they want to be townread or have "towncredit"
Btw: at this point in time the ratio of information between the wolves and the town is at the highest it will be in any day of the game, wolves know everyone's alignment whereas town know nothing and have no information to work off of.
In general what I have seen is that on Day 1 of a game wolves are cautious. Wolves are less likely to hardpush on a town player and if they do it can backfire because in order to do so they must effect conviction in their tone and analysis on a player whose alignment they already know to be town. Wolves who hardpush can play their hand by revealing the bad faith nature of their push, and additionally they can simply be blindly OMGUSed by towns who get emotional. Wolves are cautious, wolves wait for a town vs. town bandwagon to start and then encourage it, wolves say things like "I'm not sure which one is scum but this doesn't read like town vs town" and then after one player gets lynched they go gUeSs I wAs wRoNg and push on the other. Hedging behavior can also be indicative of scum because it is indicative of MAF KNOWLEDGE and the need to SET UP AFTER A MISLYNCH. "Oh, I always had reservations, I was just following/sheeping X." Yeah hedging behavior does not always imply wolf, obviously not because if it did we'd have like four wolves this game. That said wolf on day 1 often implies hedging behavior, the exception being more experienced scum players who may hard tunnel if they think they can get away with it and it's beneficial for them to do so. You're saying that you are a hedger by nature but unfortunately as this is appears to be your first forum game on the site I have no way to verify that claim. I'll keep it in mind.
In post 384, Apogee wrote:I’m also going to push back (hopefully more confidently) on some of your claims regarding me perpetuating TVT. I think you are a) conflating reads you have now on situations with what information I had in the moment. Particularly with the Enomis early situation. I’d just misread one of their actual claims after they had misunderstood one of my rvs reasons for voting. I was not particularly confident in the situation. Also, at that time although I didn’t think that the scumslip necessarily existed, Clemency was kind of off the wall, I had no desire to shut down content, and prompting some more interaction by not committing yet seemed smart.
Perhaps I'm misreading, if so, correct me. Let me explain exactly what it reads like to me. By post 23, it appears to me that you have a grasp on the situation:
"but I personally figured the "your side" was more of a presumption of most of us being townies, and his indirect reference to you being a townie is more of the same."
This is the take I agree with regardless of Clemency's true alignment. In post 63, enomis is doubling down again on the technicalities of Clemency's language, yet you remain on the sidelines. In fact, let me quote post 64:
In post 64, Apogee wrote:I've been reading back through the thread, and although I don't feel I have solid reads a few things stood out.
I just keep thinking about the pretty quick 3 person wagon on Enomis that then Clemency withdrew from. Clemency's withdrawal could be a scum move to not be seen as wagoning too hard too early? But I'm not sure it really makes more sense for him to withdraw as a maf than as a town who just didn't want a big push yet. Feel like I still need to see more to make a firm guess on the individual players involved, but either way something with the whole early votes for Enomis feels weird.
Instead of clarifying the "slip" argument between enomis and Clemency with information it appears that you possess, this post effects a subtle shade of Clemency and a subtle defense of enomis. Why was that your interpretation of Clemency's withdrawal, if you agree with me that the reason the enomis wagon felt "weird" was because it was too early to run him up to L-2?
First part as in your mechanical framework I agree with. We are in a low-information state. With regards to hedging however, I'll agree your take is one possibility. I think you are a little reductionist because it can be useful to moderate expectations as a town. So early on, and with low chances of any of those wagons (at least in those forms) moving into a real vote, giving my honest opinion felt more important than eliminating the chance of me trying to keep an escape hatch. Moderating takes (imo) gives people a better insight into my thought process, which can provide information in the future, and I always think as town being as honest as possible with takes is best. I agree going forward on real wagons, hedging will be more something to watch out for.
---------------------------
I agree in post 23 I understand the "scumslip" doesn't seem to a real slip.
Before 64, no one was talking about the scumslip being a prime reason for suspicion on Clemency, with the exception of enomis mentioning it once in 63 as something that may be true. I'll quote the takes on him leading up to my post there:
In post 32, DkKoba wrote:what makes u townread emonis right now clemency. your unvote is stalling what can be a good early alignment telling push.
this also comes off as awful accusative considering we're talking about the first wagon of the game maybe 1 real time day in? nobody's gonna crack and fold this early on unless they're brand new to the game
it feels more like you're trying to latch on to a loose end for town points than legitimately trying to shake alignment indicative play out of people
In post 50, DkKoba wrote:u said something so blatently scummy there was no reason to need to explain it. you claimed you want an "easy push". You're going to need to give some reason to pivot other than "its easier to go after someone noobier".
And now you're pivoting to trying to claim I'm trying to needlessly shade you? I find that ridiculous.
pedit: clemency seems to be trying to focus on discrediting me over trying to help gamesolve and I'd like to highlight that with his recent posts in reaction to me calling him on his weird reasoning for pivoting off pressure.
In post 53, Ydrasse wrote:no one answered my question about mechposting. hurts like crazy...
honestly i didn't think clemency's reasoning was so weird? it's easier to get tells out of newer players than it is people who know how it goes, so some votes who's never been in that position before would probably yield more tells.
however, i don't think it really justifies clemency being so... aloof? hands-off? in this instance. it makes more sense to ask "well, what do you see about xyz that makes it so bad." fmpov? idk if that's a difference in playstyle or not about not engaging until there's more to engage against though.
In post 54, midwaybear wrote:idk clemency seems a bit defensive, yet nonchalant which makes me a bit suspicious
just waiting for the last two slots now lol
pedit: what's mechposting
In post 57, DkKoba wrote:mechposting is a term i made up for a specific type of filler that involves explaining game mechanics rather than attempting to advance the game state. Something I found that I didn't like about emonis' questions is:
1) yeah thats fairly obvious
2) this one is the big one, it looks to be reaction fishing for roles to get people to act more of a certain way.(again this post only prompted me to want to push on emonis, not actually scumread him, I am not shading him for this, merely throwing out a theory that I based my push on)
3) fairly useless but also NAI and reasonable to say but also can be interpreted as extra filler.
boring not really game related content ahead warning:
I am a mentor on Epicmafia myself, and something I try to get my mentees to do is to try to figure out things on their own and focus on mechanics/situations I see them fail at after its happened. handholding isn't necessary, just play the game. it's a social deduction game. worrying too much about playing the "right" way will just get in the way of helping you win. So essentially I like to go at it at a "need to know" basis. In the interest of the game actually, I'd prefer for a noob to townslip, as it makes the game easier. No need to throw out information before it's needed etc etc.
right now I can feel we can form an early townblock I just need some good participation from everyone first.
In post 35, Clemency wrote:i think it doesnt have enough merit to warrant an answer and frankly it hurts my feelings
If this is true I apologize. It was a good way to kick off the game from RVS. Also, the slip could be true.
In post 57, DkKoba wrote:Something I found that I didn't like about emonis' questions is:
1) yeah thats fairly obvious
2) this one is the big one, it looks to be reaction fishing for roles to get people to act more of a certain way.(again this post only prompted me to want to push on emonis, not actually scumread him, I am not shading him for this, merely throwing out a theory that I based my push on)
3) fairly useless but also NAI and reasonable to say but also can be interpreted as extra filler.
Which question are you referring to?
Also, do you think me or clemency is more scummy right now?
Lastly, in your experience, is there alot of scums who farm "town points" by mech posting?
----------------------------------------------------------
I don't think townblock is a good thing to create purposefully . I feel that it makes people not want to change their townread(Stuck in their town read) and make people defend their townreads more than they should.
I honestly was not thinking about Enomis's reiteration of the scumslip. It was (or at least appeared to me as being) in passing, and was certainly far from the only reason to consider Clemency suspect, and before 63 had not been talked about much at all for 20+ posts. 3 other people were talking about Clemency's behavior. This led me to 64.
Two things were going on. I was trying to reconcile Clemency's behavior in the L-2 situation with the other takes on him in the last page, and I was as of yet unsure on DkKoba and Ydrasse (who had Clemency as scum/town with questions respectively). By questioning Clemency's mafianess then saying I see him as town potentially, I wanted to indicate I was suspicious but not firm enough to push yet, and hopefully provoke more conversation around that particular part. I'm not really sure where you are getting I exonerated Enomis, besides to the extent calling the wagon strange does. I certainly don't think there was implicit or explicit support for the "scumread."
---------------------------
We've talked quite a bit about the L-2, and that it was weird. Let me try to summarize your position: You don't think Clemency was behaving scummy by dipping from the wagon. You've indicated DkKoba is a town lean for you as well. So what is the weird part? Madiusha dropping a second vote on Enomis almost right away?
In post 11, Maduisha wrote:Hi! I don't know anybody here! I hope we'll get along very soon and have the least amount of replacements possible!
For real? Then we better get this wagon started to weed them all out!
VOTE: Enomis
To this point now, I feel that Clemency's behavior just in that section doesn't indicate town in the way you suggested in 374, as I can totally see a scum clemency getting cold feet and pulling back. Like you said, scum want plausible deniability d1.
This is a thick one, so bear with me:
Joqiza tries to imply scum is going to hide outside the first lynch wagon to avoid suspicion, yet he himself hammered Quick, so we already know he wasn't having an honest thought process (why would scum be openly honest, anyway?), and tries to imply scum wants to hedge so they can start discussion between town players and try to imply that is what Apogee is doing. Also tries to imply that Enomis is scummy by constantly bringing up the "scumslip" of Clemency and tries to tie it to Apogee's behavior as if he is "excusing" Enomis' move while trying to shade Clemency. This is the second time Joqiza tries to tie Apogee's alignment to someone else's and it's Enomis of all people again. I feel a strong desire of Joqiza for people to associate Enomis and Apogee's alignment as the same, since he is doing the same thing again.
Apogee answers by trying to un-vinculate himself from Enomis' argument and also argues that he wasn't giving any explicit support towards Enomis' case and he suspected Clemency on his own, which makes me think this interaction might be more indicative of a Joqiza+Enomis scum team? I mean in the sense that Joqiza went to great lengths to make it feel like a scumpair fully knowing Enomis would be the first one to flip because people were more interested to lynch Enomis than Apogee at the moment he posted this. If Enomis really were town and Apogee scum, wouldn't it benefit Apogee to "admit to sheep" and hope association reads carry him through association townread once Enomis is dead later on?
Next that comes is that Apogee makes the promised readlist once he has enough information and shares it with us (730, I tried to quote it here for visiblitiy but his spoilers break mine so I will just link it this time):
Here to note is that Apogee
townreads
Joqiza but adds a caveat that he would be scared of DK+Joqiza scumteam fooling him, which is an idea he'll hammer again later on. He also says he can't read Enomis and posts a consideration of both alignments to it and adds that Enomis pushing DK felt towny to him which I agree on.[/spoiler]
And that's all for the D1 content. Now moving onto D2 posts!
#2306:
Spoiler:
In post 2306, Apogee wrote:Reading up to here, not a ton to say. Still scumreading votato most. Joqiza I'm having a hard time evaluating because I disagree with the initial logic on his wagon (i.e. the unvote and the quick delayed hammer) in part, but I also realize I might not be evaluating those parts the clearest because of bias, and the last page or two his tone has shifted. Not sure the tone shifts are AI though.
Add me to the list of people who intend to go back and do some re-reads shortly.
Explains he disagrees with the reasons to scumread Joqiza and pushes Votato priority push. It is consistent with his expressed reads, but also kind of disruptive of exploting of Joqiza as a slot like I mentioned before, so while consistency is towntelling, I'm not townreading this disruption. Promises to re-read and there's not much else he says here so we're gonna jump onto the next one already.
#2370:
Spoiler:
In post 2370, Apogee wrote:Alright I'm kind of wiped out rn so don't expect a ton of deep analysis but here is a handful of joqiza posts that stood out to me. I'll try to do the same thing with other people.
[Joqiza quotes I deleted because they break formatting...]
One big takeaway is unless Joqiza really really planned out excuses I think 275 really limits the merits of the argument against him because of the voting pattern on me.
I'm honestly wary of the push on him right now. Two reasons: 1) the end of day vote thing doesn't read as bad to me as it does to most of you and 2) while his tone has changed, I'm not sure it is AI (for much the same reasons Madiusha's tone changes were not neccesarily AI). I'm also pretty convinced he is not scumbuddies with votato. I want to delve more into the casework on scumpairs but that also has to wait. And I suppose most people now have 1+ scumread in the people pushing on him which is eh.
Votato, I know I owe you an argument on you. You're next for a mini-iso.
DkKoba, I know you have personal stuff going on right now (and wish you the best in that regard) but I'd like to see where you are going on Ydrasse.
I'll try to answer some questions and do another one of these tonight.
Joqiza's claim is probably not AI? It's premature but don't see it necessarily leaning one way or another.
Excuses Joqiza's behavior because reaction he thinks his passing mention of site meta is towntelling enough. Argues that the reaction is not necessarily AI (which is true, but I don't think it was one of the main reasons for the push) and pushes the idea that Joqiza and Votato can't be scumbuddies but doesn't bring reasons as of yet. The idea that he is so certain that this is true is concerning considering town!Apogee can't know Votato's alignment and Joqiza had the hammer vs L-1 Votato and Quick the previous turn and he chose not to hammer Votato. How does Apogee have the convinction that Joqiza didn't save Votato this early onto D2? I'm not sure if he really wanted to defuse the Joqiza wagon desperately or if he was more tunneled on Votato than I was.
DkKoba: Don't see it. Earlier on conflict felt real, also don't think he is scum anyways.
Enomis: Outside possibility but unlikely. Could be some distancing earlier but nothing about interactions suggest a pairing.
Madiusha. Most unlikely to be pair in my opinion. EOD and start of the day today the conflict felt too real. Also, she was the only one on his wagon. I've suggested before how risky it would be to do that.
Onto the more interesting:
Joqiza. I could be convinced. I honestly don't find his actions today super scummy, but the tone shift is mildly concerning. Put off by the fact that almost certainly one person on his wagon is scum as well. Interesting interaction with votato in 1805 that could be setting up distancing earlier however if the "safe delay" crowd on the lynch is right.
Ydrasse: Ok I think there is real merit to this scumpair, but what I am concerned by is the lack of a case imo for overall scumminess, which is why I have been asking DkKoba and Joqiza about thier votes there. Here are all the posts where Votato mentions or quotes Ydrasse in a substantive manner:
[Deleted quotes once again... sorry...]
Obviously the vast majority of this is NAI. However, a few things stand out.
1) Ydrasse is a townlock to votato. The fact votato props her up quite a bit, often subtly
2) His suggestion Ydrasse and I should form/are a townblock
3) Hints of mild distancing early on turning to more outright support later
4) More interaction between the slots in the latter half of the game
I'm not 100% certain, and Ydrasse would 100% be the second lynch I'd advocate for, and ofc I want to hear a defense and more arguments about Ydrasse's inherent scuminess. I'll probably look at that next.
I'm a bit concerned about this post because I think it engages in contradiction with post 2370. In that post, Apogee says he doesn't buy the Joqiza wagon due to not thinking his tone shift is necessarily AI, but in this one, he says Joqiza's tone shift is "mildly concerning". I would like for Apogee to answer me how his opinion on the matter changed so radically in 40 posts, especially considering we are talking about an emotional state and not an argument that evolved, so I want to give him the time to answer properly what was his progression.
This is the end of Apogee-Joqiza interactions. Please do check my comments inside the spoiler tags and tell me what you think about these. Next I will do the same with Enomis, but I'm honestly exhausted right now, so please allow me to postpone it for now.
@Apogee, if you don't have time to explore it all during the day (which is understandable) I have particular interest in you addressing my point in the spoiler under post 2410 which is the point that has struck me the most as strange. Take time to address anything else that concerns you as well, but I think sorting that out would be priority.
- I feel conflicted about the lack of engagement even if I just said I townread it. While it seems genuine to me, at the same time I feel this could be a strategy he adopted to hide when he saw the game was really fast paced and pages got cluttered quickly? Lack of participation is generally scumsided even if it comes from town, but it seemed so genuine that I'm not sure. I'm gonna note it down in both alignment sections because it's driving me crazy and I don't want it oversighted.
- Death tunnel on DkKoba. Why is this scummy? And how dare I bring it up after I death tunneled Votato myself? Well, simply because... DkKoba is dead and nobody lynched him. I thought about it and it can be that Enomis found DK to be the strongest town player and that's why he was adamant on getting them killed one way or another? And they threatened to insta-vote Enomis if left alive. Maybe he wanted to make sure it didn't really happen?
- Was really, really engaged in exploring Joqiza D2 when we began voting him and asked him questions about the legitimacy of his reads and chased him about avoiding questions, but did not join the wagon at all even though it was not al L-1 when he was pressuring him this much. I would normally townread this engagement with him but the lack of a vote makes it feel like a pressureless show and it actually has me pondering if there was a motive behind that.
NAI
stuff:
- Positioning in wagons:
D1: Voting Votato (Quick is lynched)
D2: Not voting (Joqiza is lynched)
D3: Voting Votato (Votato is lynched)
This has both good and bad connotations, so I don't know where to put it, so it stays in the NAI section. Participated only in 1 mislynch, did not vote the person he was pressuring D2 that was later confirmed as scum.[/spoiler]
This is all I've seen for now, feel free to pick it apart and give your opinion and tell me if I'm being biased or what.
I am not sure what exactly to respond to this.
Did you think of Dkkoba as a strong player? How and why?
tbh, I was not anywhere close to wanting to lynch joqiza day 2 before Ydrasse claimed. I was just scumleaning him for his "why me" kind of post and wanted to figure out his alignment. But not super strong. Also, I didn't really buy your's and ydrasse argument at all. So that's that.
-----------
Also, I was voting DkKoba d3, not votato. Votato was my strongest townread.
------------
Is your townread of Apogee only investment at this point in this? Do you feel investment is strong enough for you to townread a person in lylo?
I thought they were strong in the sense that transparency of reads lets one easily see the thought process behind wagon jumping, which eases exploring slots for everyone if they choose to buy the pressure or not.
You not wanting to lynch Joqiza until the guilty is fair, however as I said before, a vote does not imply anyone gets lynched. You were pursuing Joqiza for your own reasons and not the arguments others were bringing up, I get that. However, not using your vote in a situation in which you want to pressure the person you're addressing is slightly concerning and also part of the reason why I scumread Joqiza in the first place. He was not at L-1 when you began pressuring him, which means your vote would not kill him and the person that tunneled him the most (me) had already voted so you wouldn't possibly fear lolhammer, did you? What I'm trying to say is, not buying our arguments doesn't mean you shouldn't vote him too if you had different concerns. The only running wagons were on him and your biggest townread, so pressuring him with a vote would have made sense, I think.
Also yes, you are correct. Sorry, I mixed up names when reading votecounts. It's still NAI information, I think... you participated in 0 lynches (no townies and no scum).
No, I think I laid out my other reasons to townread him already in my previous posts, but I've also brought arguments for/against him because I don't want to rule anyone easily in lylo. I would be grateful if you checked them out... (yes, I know it's painful to go through so much text, I'm sorry).
In post 3214, Maduisha wrote:I agree that everything can be wifom, Enomis. But I think we should all admit that seeing an argument someone makes as wifom or not, and seeing the night kill as wifom are
very
different things because the argument from person X can come from scum or not, but the NK comes
100%
from scum and it's usually weaponized so town reads too much into it and trap themselves.
If you want to discuss it regardless to support the rest of your argument, I am not opposed. I'm just saying I don't want to base my final decision on it (like, clearing someone through the night kill implications or voting someone due to the same).
This is why I am doing night kill analysis. Because you and apogee(Who outright voice his disdain of WIFOM) in day 3, makes me feel like scum is just night killing to put himself/herself in the best position today not caring much about WIFOM. The state of mafia now is that everyone park things to wifom, it was the same in my other newbie game.
But each to his/her own.
But you do realize that this argument holds no water, right? There cannot be two scums right now, only one. If there is only one, then they cannot possibly hope to read the mind of the other townie that isn't you (I'm assuming town!You for the sake of your argument) and bring up the same wifom argument, right? They cannot possibly plan to use this as strategy if nobody buys it and they cannot possibly know if others will or will not.
As I said, feel free to use the NK to support your argument because I think it could be interesting to see where you're standing right now, but arguing that saying the NK is wifom is scum strategy seems disingenuous for us two considering only you think it's not necessarily wifom. And like I said, it's information that comes 100% from scum, I think it's fair to assume they're weaponizing it.
In post 3218, Maduisha wrote:I understand not seeing Joqiza as scummy until the guilty proved you wrong, I'm not accusing you of not suspecting him. I'm just noting down the fact that people wanted to explore his wagon before the guilty was out and you expressed discomfort in the fact that it was not Votato who got wagoned at day start. A wagon doesn't mean a lynch must happen, so that's why exploration of other options is important, and this was the first time Joqiza was pressured at all, while Votato had gotten to L-1 already the day prior. It confuses me that you'd reject exploring and that's why I included it in the scummy part, but I get it can also come from town stubbornness.
A big reason why I thought that scum was either DkKoba/Apogee was because both of them tried to steer the lynch away from Joqiza by going to votato which most likely, would have gotten through if not for the cop claim guilty.
What do you think about this?
It's one of the points I have brought up in my considering about a scum!Apogee scenario and I am awaiting his response to my suspicion about 2410, because he went from "let's go back to Votato" while arguing Joqiza's tone shift isn't necessarily scummy to saying it's concerning sometime later when the argument got more traction and I would like to know what was he thinking at the time to make this switch.
Alright, I'm gonna go away for awhile because I have other duties to attend to, but feel free to address me because I will respond later when I have free time again. The Enomis+Joqiza interaction analysis will have to wait until tomorrow maybe because I think there's a lot to discuss from this one and also because I'm honestly exhausted from the day and I need a little rest. I tried my best to make it succint but it still took me quite a while and it was draining to read those things again.
In post 3214, Maduisha wrote:I agree that everything can be wifom, Enomis. But I think we should all admit that seeing an argument someone makes as wifom or not, and seeing the night kill as wifom are
very
different things because the argument from person X can come from scum or not, but the NK comes
100%
from scum and it's usually weaponized so town reads too much into it and trap themselves.
If you want to discuss it regardless to support the rest of your argument, I am not opposed. I'm just saying I don't want to base my final decision on it (like, clearing someone through the night kill implications or voting someone due to the same).
This is why I am doing night kill analysis. Because you and apogee(Who outright voice his disdain of WIFOM) in day 3, makes me feel like scum is just night killing to put himself/herself in the best position today not caring much about WIFOM. The state of mafia now is that everyone park things to wifom, it was the same in my other newbie game.
But each to his/her own.
Yeah here is the thing with WIFOM for me. I'm a big believer in taking the "game-theory optimal" move (classic example is not shooting claimed role if doc exists and can protect even if there is a chance doc tries to big-brain - risk reward is just terrible) and generally think that other's will do so or at least not do something that hurts them compared to an optimal move. But I'm well aware than people in mafia might be trying gambits or whatnot so I'm trying to stay away from just forcing through WIFOMY reads based on "this is the kill that makes the most sense for this person to have done and makes little sense for anyone else to have done" even if I think that as scum it would be stupid to diverge from that just because it would be easy to fall into traps in doing so.
DkKoba had been townreading maduisha for a long time and scumreading you.
for them to pivot onto maduisha as lynch would be bizarre and concerning.
For them to give a really compelling argument for your lynch is more plausible.
I am also pivoting to Maduisha today. I have infact, been townreading maduisha longer than DK. Is me pivoting today bizarre and concerning? If not, how is it different from DK?
But are you going to end up voting Maduisha (no need to answer this is hypothetical)? For Dk to vote for her and try to convince me to after talking a fair amount about how she is clear would read poorly to me. Like straightforward I think a Madiusha/Apogee/DkKoba F3 with scum!Madiusha would result in Maduisha winning one way or another which is the big point here.
In post 3228, enomis wrote:@Apogee: Is maduisha town for you just for pushing on joqiza first day 2 or are there other reasons?
Well since I townread you based off of Joqiza's D1 post clearly I'm wrong on associations somewhere . I think generally how she dealt with the pressure d1 looks a lot better in retrospect and her progressions and arguments have been rational. Actually, something one of you mentioned about how joqiza probably wasn't lynched sans cop made me think how she could have been trying to distance going into D3 but I really didn't get a vibe of scum theatre there.
In post 3231, Maduisha wrote:
You not wanting to lynch Joqiza until the guilty is fair, however as I said before, a vote does not imply anyone gets lynched. You were pursuing Joqiza for your own reasons and not the arguments others were bringing up, I get that. However, not using your vote in a situation in which you want to pressure the person you're addressing is slightly concerning and also part of the reason why I scumread Joqiza in the first place. He was not at L-1 when you began pressuring him, which means your vote would not kill him and the person that tunneled him the most (me) had already voted so you wouldn't possibly fear lolhammer, did you? What I'm trying to say is, not buying our arguments doesn't mean you shouldn't vote him too if you had different concerns. The only running wagons were on him and your biggest townread, so pressuring him with a vote would have made sense, I think.
Also yes, you are correct. Sorry, I mixed up names when reading votecounts. It's still NAI information, I think... you participated in 0 lynches (no townies and no scum).
No, I think I laid out my other reasons to townread him already in my previous posts, but I've also brought arguments for/against him because I don't want to rule anyone easily in lylo. I would be grateful if you checked them out... (yes, I know it's painful to go through so much text, I'm sorry).
My townread on votato only came in day 3 and I cannot explain the reason for what I have said before.
I read through your wall of text. I could only find investment, fluidity of thought(Not sure what this means) and willingness to re-read(Investment) as the only reason. Let me know if I missed something.
In post 3232, Maduisha wrote:
But you do realize that this argument holds no water, right? There cannot be two scums right now, only one. If there is only one, then they cannot possibly hope to read the mind of the other townie that isn't you (I'm assuming town!You for the sake of your argument) and bring up the same wifom argument, right? They cannot possibly plan to use this as strategy if nobody buys it and they cannot possibly know if others will or will not.
As I said, feel free to use the NK to support your argument because I think it could be interesting to see where you're standing right now, but arguing that saying the NK is wifom is scum strategy seems disingenuous for us two considering only you think it's not necessarily wifom. And like I said, it's information that comes 100% from scum, I think it's fair to assume they're weaponizing it.
I meant that I will use it in my analysis. I think it's already clear that you two won't buy it. So I won't spend my time convincing and laying it out to you. I will just use it in my own analysis.
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
So from your line of thought, I get the feeling that there's no way you are voting Maduisha and 90% of the time you are voting me.
What is your hesitation?
Since you don't belive in WIFOM, i believe the nightkill should be Null for you.
Since you have no reason to back out of your maduisha townread, she should be town for you.
You had me at 60% scum yesterday. Nothing changed from yesterday to today.
Seeing your WIFOM analysis, it seems for sure that you are voting me. What's the hesitation then?
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
So the biggest thing with the difference between 2370 and 2410 is that in between these posts I ISOd votato, got a chance to reread through Joqiza's D2, and changed my mind on if joqiza would fit. Yeah it was only 40 posts, but there were only two people (Dk and myself) who posted very much in there and it was over the course of 5 hours in an evening as I worked through stuff. Looking back from 2370 to my previous 3 posts you can see that they were way way back (2207, 2279, 2306) so I was behind in the thread. 2370 was my first takes on the situation and 2410 comes after I've thought through things. It would have been weird IMO if my reads on Joqiza hadn't evolved at all in that timeframe. I went back, thought about pairings, and said, yeah, this could be coming from scum!Joqiza and its more concerning than my first readthrough indicated and a few of the arguments make sense, but as the initial premise is mediocre in some ways I don't think he was the most likely.
I've already described my hesitancy with the Joqiza wagon (as in who was on it) at that time, and figured that it was plausible votato was co-opting it to keep himself out of the way.
So from your line of thought, I get the feeling that there's no way you are voting Maduisha and 90% of the time you are voting me.
What is your hesitation?
Since you don't belive in WIFOM, i believe the nightkill should be Null for you.
Since you have no reason to back out of your maduisha townread, she should be town for you.
You had me at 60% scum yesterday. Nothing changed from yesterday to today.
Seeing your WIFOM analysis, it seems for sure that you are voting me. What's the hesitation then?
I don't know where I indicated for sure I am voting you. GTH right now I'm leaning towards it (as I mentioned) and if day ended in 10 minutes I would. But that doesn't mean through conversation or seeing prior actions in new lights I couldn't change. No need to lock in votes this early.
Also, I mentioned this before, but in a game that just finished on another site I mishammered in LYLO because of a really deep wolf so I'm paranoid and want to give slots due diligence before locking in a vote.
In post 3239, Apogee wrote:
I don't know where I indicated for sure I am voting you. GTH right now I'm leaning towards it (as I mentioned) and if day ended in 10 minutes I would. But that doesn't mean through conversation or seeing prior actions in new lights I couldn't change. No need to lock in votes this early.
Also, I mentioned this before, but in a game that just finished on another site I mishammered in LYLO because of a really deep wolf so I'm paranoid and want to give slots due diligence before locking in a vote.
Well, I can read between the lines looking at your analysis of nightkill where it seems that scum!maduisha has super high likelyhood of winning whenever you are inside. And also you have been repeating that maduisha scum theatre is super unlikely compared to mine. So yeah....
And you seemed to be quite laid back about this where you are just responding to questions and defending yourself. Kinda make me feel like you are comfortable with your read/ you are scum waiting for time to be up.
So if you feel that your read most likely won't change, do just vote me. Would save me alot of effort going to determine who is scum between you and maduisha which is going to be useless in the end.
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
In post 3231, Maduisha wrote:
You not wanting to lynch Joqiza until the guilty is fair, however as I said before, a vote does not imply anyone gets lynched. You were pursuing Joqiza for your own reasons and not the arguments others were bringing up, I get that. However, not using your vote in a situation in which you want to pressure the person you're addressing is slightly concerning and also part of the reason why I scumread Joqiza in the first place. He was not at L-1 when you began pressuring him, which means your vote would not kill him and the person that tunneled him the most (me) had already voted so you wouldn't possibly fear lolhammer, did you? What I'm trying to say is, not buying our arguments doesn't mean you shouldn't vote him too if you had different concerns. The only running wagons were on him and your biggest townread, so pressuring him with a vote would have made sense, I think.
Also yes, you are correct. Sorry, I mixed up names when reading votecounts. It's still NAI information, I think... you participated in 0 lynches (no townies and no scum).
No, I think I laid out my other reasons to townread him already in my previous posts, but I've also brought arguments for/against him because I don't want to rule anyone easily in lylo. I would be grateful if you checked them out... (yes, I know it's painful to go through so much text, I'm sorry).
My townread on votato only came in day 3 and I cannot explain the reason for what I have said before.
I read through your wall of text. I could only find investment, fluidity of thought(Not sure what this means) and willingness to re-read(Investment) as the only reason. Let me know if I missed something.
In post 3232, Maduisha wrote:
But you do realize that this argument holds no water, right? There cannot be two scums right now, only one. If there is only one, then they cannot possibly hope to read the mind of the other townie that isn't you (I'm assuming town!You for the sake of your argument) and bring up the same wifom argument, right? They cannot possibly plan to use this as strategy if nobody buys it and they cannot possibly know if others will or will not.
As I said, feel free to use the NK to support your argument because I think it could be interesting to see where you're standing right now, but arguing that saying the NK is wifom is scum strategy seems disingenuous for us two considering only you think it's not necessarily wifom. And like I said, it's information that comes 100% from scum, I think it's fair to assume they're weaponizing it.
I meant that I will use it in my analysis. I think it's already clear that you two won't buy it. So I won't spend my time convincing and laying it out to you. I will just use it in my own analysis.
Fair enough, but the lack of a vote when pressuring someone still pings me as weird ever since Joqiza did it. I guess I can chalk it up to playstyle sometimes and I shouldn't base an hypothesis entirely on that.
When I say Apogee's thoughts were fluid I mean that when I read his posts I could feel that I understood what was going through his mind in most cases. An opposite would be Quick, who posted lots constantly but I could never know what was on his mind. I hope that helps to see what I was trying to say (I'm sorry, I'm not a native speaker and sometimes I choose weird words, I guess). The willingness to re-read is not just investment, because he would come back with quotes from the thread from where he was re-reading, which is sort of proof of that re-read
actually
happening. Scum can also emulate this, but I think faking thought process over empty content is a lot harder for scum, so that's why I separated it in two different bullet points and I didn't clump it together.
And I think your approach here shouldn't be "will they buy it or not?" and rather lay out your ideas so we can see where you come from. It's harder to comprehend you if you keep them to yourself is all I'm saying. I'm nobody to tell you how to play the game, but I actually think it'd help.
In post 3238, Apogee wrote:So the biggest thing with the difference between 2370 and 2410 is that in between these posts I ISOd votato, got a chance to reread through Joqiza's D2, and changed my mind on if joqiza would fit. Yeah it was only 40 posts, but there were only two people (Dk and myself) who posted very much in there and it was over the course of 5 hours in an evening as I worked through stuff. Looking back from 2370 to my previous 3 posts you can see that they were way way back (2207, 2279, 2306) so I was behind in the thread. 2370 was my first takes on the situation and 2410 comes after I've thought through things. It would have been weird IMO if my reads on Joqiza hadn't evolved at all in that timeframe. I went back, thought about pairings, and said, yeah, this could be coming from scum!Joqiza and its more concerning than my first readthrough indicated and a few of the arguments make sense, but as the initial premise is mediocre in some ways I don't think he was the most likely.
I've already described my hesitancy with the Joqiza wagon (as in who was on it) at that time, and figured that it was plausible votato was co-opting it to keep himself out of the way.
I understand changing your mind about Joqiza, but the thing that I feel complicated about is that he didn't say something that suddenly pinged you as weird, but rather that you revisited the same emotional interaction with 2 different conclusions, if that makes sense. Did you find him more emotional once he started blaming Ydrasse of confbiasing? I'm trying to see the trigger in those 40 posts between your change of mind to try to put myself in your shoes...
In post 2393, joqiza wrote:Multiple people have asked me for a current reads list so I will share my thoughts. A lot of stuff is not really fully-formed today and I don't feel like I've had any time for scumhunting on Day 2 besides defensive manuevers which aren't great for determining people's alignments in my experience. Unfortunately a lot of times when you are under pressure it's easy to react emotionally and sadly the most stubborn/frustrating arguments can come from town. I wouldn't necessarily trust or sheep my own reads here tbh I'd just look back and read over the content and reactions and form your own conclusions.
Spoiler: DkKoba
DkKoba has the highest post count, has generated the most content, and has re-evaluated several times in what feels like a very genuine way. The simple timing of how they've re-evaluated also feels towny, why would they take the pressure off votato when they did unless the two are scum partners? So there is very unlikely to be a scum!Koba to a town!votato in my opinion. In terms of effort, there’s just a lot of shit they’ve done this game which I think would be unnecessary as scum. Example being the two notepad ISO’s: the first one on Quick /maybe/ could’ve been scum-motivated, the second one on enomis it’s hard to visualize why they’d even be bothered. When I played scum in Forum SH, I was honestly pretty bored for most of it and I didn’t really feel the need to go back and case people when I didn't have to tactically. For the most part it simply wasn’t necessary, since a lot of people don’t bother TRing analysis anyway. I was planning to rr them but I may not bother at this point.
Spoiler: Maduisha
Maduisha I am not sure even flips scum but I think she’s still got to go. She’s basically hard tunneled me since the beginning of Game 1 and I still don’t understand the reasoning behind it despite multiple attempts to engage. I feel like the fact I didn’t vote her Day 1 is pretty inconsequential and NAI and I think those kind of voting behaviors in general are more indicative of difference in player style, varying from player to player, rather than indicative of alignment. Like I said before, I don’t think it’s necessarily her bringing it up that makes it scummy, it’s more of the behavior of doubling down and insisting that this is why I’m scum, while refusing to evaluate other things I’ve done. Scum don’t want to have to make up reads about other players, it’s hard for them because they already know everything, so doubling down on small things is a pretty classic tell for me—it’s an excuse not to have to fake reads.
Spoiler: enomis
Enomis I’m the most uncertain about. At one point Day 1 I was very committed to seeing him in the graveyard. Once he’d actually responded to me I realized I might be leading a crusade on a slot that flips town, so I started reconsidering. I think there's a post where I mentioned this but I don't feel like bothering to find it tbh. The way he’s questioned me today still feels lackluster, but I think it’s actually possible he hasn’t read the game LOL. He does seem genuinely out of touch with the gamestate in general, his questions to me are transcendentally displaced, and also I feel like he’d be playing harder here as scum given that he'd be pretty close to LYLO here with a good chance to win. Basically, I think his inattention to the game might be a personal behavior pattern rather than an indication of alignment.
Spoiler: votato
Unvoted me at L-1 which is nice I guess but sadly not necessarily AI (I've been trying to look for performative uncertainty, since scum is probably trying to set up for the win at this point). Engaging w/ votato today has been frustrating. Like I said I don’t really understand why he was even voting me, I think I stated the case against me as I understood it and my rebuttals, so if there’s something I’m missing there I’m waiting for a direct clarification @votato. I remember you accused me of citing old posts, but I was only doing that when enomis was asking me for my reads as they were randomly in the past so that felt like a really opportunistic way to FOS me tbh.
Spoiler: Apogee
Apogee I thought had a decent response to a fairly intense line of questioning when I cased him Day 1. The stuff I pointed out that he was doing kind of stopped, he hasn’t really engaged in hedging behavior since then and actually he’s pushed his scumreads pretty hard. I haven’t been focused on him Day 2 at all so this is a shitty read I'll go through him if I absolutely have to I just don't care that much rn lol
Spoiler: Ydrasse
With Ydrasse, she was my hardest TR at one point… but I’ve been wrong before on these things, which is why I try to force myself to re-evaluate after every unsuccessful lynch. Today it’s weird not just how she suspected me but the way in which it happened. She completely 180’d and put me on L-1 without really asking questions or bothering to scumhunt first. She just took my actions from the hammer, wrote them up in an uncharitable light, and didn’t bother to probe further. Even if she thinks I’m scum, shouldn’t she still be at least wondering if I’m town? Why is there so little work to determine the alignment of someone she TR yesterday? The flip isn’t natural to me. Then there’s posts like 2290. In this point, when she rejects my explanation “B,” she cited post 1748 in justifying it… but that post was way before the hammer, and way before I actually reaction tested Quick at all. It doesn’t feel like she gave a good faith attempt at actually reading the game with my explanation, instead it seems like she went into my ISO and pulled out a couple posts that would support her point. Which is my general issue with the way she’s played today, it feels like everything she’s said is working backwards to justify a view she wants to maintain, rather than a genuine suspicion that she’s arrived at. I can’t say I TR it at all. In a sense, someone who was previously very reasonable has suddenly shifted to being unreasonable (perhaps tactically scumsiding) and that shift is why I think I FOS her now. I at least want some answers.
Was doing rereads to answer Madiusha saw this thought it might be important will come back and talk
In post 3238, Apogee wrote:So the biggest thing with the difference between 2370 and 2410 is that in between these posts I ISOd votato, got a chance to reread through Joqiza's D2, and changed my mind on if joqiza would fit. Yeah it was only 40 posts, but there were only two people (Dk and myself) who posted very much in there and it was over the course of 5 hours in an evening as I worked through stuff. Looking back from 2370 to my previous 3 posts you can see that they were way way back (2207, 2279, 2306) so I was behind in the thread. 2370 was my first takes on the situation and 2410 comes after I've thought through things. It would have been weird IMO if my reads on Joqiza hadn't evolved at all in that timeframe. I went back, thought about pairings, and said, yeah, this could be coming from scum!Joqiza and its more concerning than my first readthrough indicated and a few of the arguments make sense, but as the initial premise is mediocre in some ways I don't think he was the most likely.
I've already described my hesitancy with the Joqiza wagon (as in who was on it) at that time, and figured that it was plausible votato was co-opting it to keep himself out of the way.
I understand changing your mind about Joqiza, but the thing that I feel complicated about is that he didn't say something that suddenly pinged you as weird, but rather that you revisited the same emotional interaction with 2 different conclusions, if that makes sense. Did you find him more emotional once he started blaming Ydrasse of confbiasing? I'm trying to see the trigger in those 40 posts between your change of mind to try to put myself in your shoes...
So I'm not certain of my exact thought process two weeks later but I think it came down to catch-up versus reread and seeing how Joqiza's few posts between my initial and reconsidered takes on his emotions have a slightly more frantic energy. Like skimming the past 150ish posts stuff didn't seem emotional at first glance but I reconsidered it once I started building a scum!Joqiza picture and thought about it more after ISOing votato and seeing that joqiza was hard to clear from him.
In post 3239, Apogee wrote:
I don't know where I indicated for sure I am voting you. GTH right now I'm leaning towards it (as I mentioned) and if day ended in 10 minutes I would. But that doesn't mean through conversation or seeing prior actions in new lights I couldn't change. No need to lock in votes this early.
Also, I mentioned this before, but in a game that just finished on another site I mishammered in LYLO because of a really deep wolf so I'm paranoid and want to give slots due diligence before locking in a vote.
Well, I can read between the lines looking at your analysis of nightkill where it seems that scum!maduisha has super high likelyhood of winning whenever you are inside. And also you have been repeating that maduisha scum theatre is super unlikely compared to mine. So yeah....
And you seemed to be quite laid back about this where you are just responding to questions and defending yourself. Kinda make me feel like you are comfortable with your read/ you are scum waiting for time to be up.
So if you feel that your read most likely won't change, do just vote me. Would save me alot of effort going to determine who is scum between you and maduisha which is going to be useless in the end.
That's a pretty anti-town statement to make. Just cause I lean you doesn't mean I shouldn't consider Maduisha scummy -- winning lylos as town is difficult enough as it is needing the 2 town players to agree. Calling me content is also a bit reductionist as just because I haven't laid into people yet today doesn't mean I'm not working on building cases, which I am.
Alright, I have a renewed spirit to ISO dive a second time for Joqiza interactions and associations, this time about Enomis. My head hurts since last night, but I still feel energized, I dunno. As always, comments inside the spoiler tags so we can navigate the page without much clutter when they're closed:
Not really "interaction" but somewhat important, maybe? Fragments of post #301 and #853:
Spoiler:
In post 301, enomis wrote:1) DkKoba and Joqiza seem to have super similar train of thought about people. Not sure if it is because they come from the same site and play together alot. Or is it because they are scum together and reason for same line of thought is because they discussed it in the daytalk.
In post 853, enomis wrote:Possible Scumbuds:
Joqiza x DKKoba Similar thoughts(Exactly the same)
I put these two together because they're not from the same gamestate because there's a bunch of posts between them, but they're similar in nature. Enomis was scared of Joqiza+DK scumteam and mentioned it through the game in this fashion, so I wanted to note it down.
First interactions (D1) posts #1232, #1275, #1277, #1283, #1291, #1297 and 1295:
In post 1174, joqiza wrote:My feeling on enomis is that he is scum in near autoloss
Are you serious? An autoloss on day 1 in a newbie game?
Do you seriously think if I am scum, I will think this?
Joqiza calls Enomis' low activity rate as "scum in near autoloss" and Enomis questions the logic of this. What I think Enomis is trying to say is that it was too early into D1 to be in any lynch pressure to be in an "auto-loss" situation for scum, so he shows skepticism. If this was an attempt at scum theatre, I'd say it's a poor attempt because Joqiza's logic is weak and Enomis' wording is a bit off (I'm sorry if it's actually just me reading it wrong, I'm not native as I mentioned before). If this were a prepared conversation, I would imagine it would have gone differently.
In post 1174, joqiza wrote:My feeling on enomis is that he is scum in near autoloss
Are you serious? An autoloss on day 1 in a newbie game?
Do you seriously think if I am scum, I will think this?
I have seen scum in this position before, 3 times actually, and this is exactly what they looked like w.r.t. deflated and in general disconnected from the thread.
Regardless, I am re-evaluating everything rn but you have to understand that this is literally the first time you've acknowledged me in about 30 pages when I've been pushing for a response from you for a very long time and if you are town I am somewhat annoyed w/ you
post edit: Okay I will from hereforth onwards keep my vote on someone at all times to appease the meta of this site but I truly do not see the point
tbh, there is no such meta. You can do whatever you want.
Hmmm, you saw 3 times of scums giving up because they think they are near auto-loss on day 1 in such a vanilla setup?
It was because our timezone don't connect. I am offline and you are online. I am online and you are offline. Because I don't see you much when i start posting.
Joqiza tries to back his argument by saying he saw this situation happen already with scum being unmotivated to play because they got votes on themselves and also says he has been "chasing Enomis for answers" and Enomis chalks it up to timezone difference which is fair. I don't see much to read from this situation other than Joqiza's argument is still weak but he is still using it.
In post 1239, enomis wrote:Some of his arguments I feel are kinda forced, like the one i pointed out in 1232.
Also to a lesser extent, some of his post shows sort of posturing for a move day 2. Me x Quick , Me x Maduisha in the instance I flip town.
Are you referring to me? That's a total misrepresentation, I said explicitly I do not think you are a scumteam with Quick
Yes. So if I flip town. You will go for quick next no?
In this one, Enomis calls out Joqiza for the forced argument about being in auto-loss for being less active than the rest and says he's positioning to lynch Quick after he gets lynched. So, the whole exchange summarizes in Joqiza using the same weak argument twice and Enomis deflecting it the same way again and again. Again, not sure what to read from this.
In post 1279, joqiza wrote:tf no I said if you flip town everyone should re-evaluate
How does me flipping town affect everyone? I don't see any associative tells to re-evaluate.
Anyway, this wasn't the main point. The main point was your post about auto loss. I really can't see how you can be genuine in thinking that especially that you seem experience in mafia in epic mafia.
If it was a LYLO position or have other factors in play, I can understand. But this is newbie game day 1.
Enomis again questions the legitimacy of Joqiza's thought process and hammers down once again that his argument is weak.
In post 1287, joqiza wrote:
I don't understand what you mean by the first post. I think whenever you lynch town you should always re-evaluate, that's simply good practice.
The first thing is that disengagement, not anger/fight, is the first sign of autoloss. I have seen this not just in forum mafia but regularly in chat mafia. The fact that it is Day 1 furthers my point because we are at the point in time where we have the maximum number of MLs. You'd be fighting harder in LYLO, dude...
This isn't even the basis of my wagon on you and I don't understand if you truly think that's my point, like I have a lot of legitimate reasons to SR you, mainly the fact that none of your reads make any sense whatsoever. I mentioned behavior in autoloss when someone mentioned your disengagement from the thread as a reason to TR you, whereas I think such disengagement is NAI due to the aforementioned possibility.
Hmmm, ok I can get what you are saying. But I am thinking if you are trying to explain your way through or did you really think that in the first place. Because auto-loss to me sounds like if I am scum, I know my whole scum team has 99% lost the game.
I think my reads makes sense. Give me one read which you think don't make sense. Please don't copy multiple reads in.
Joqiza further explains his argument and Enomis seems to conceed slightly because Joqiza made a bit more of sense with his logic, but since he accused Enomis' reads of being fake, he demands he brings up the "fake reads" so they can both comment on why they're legit or not. This first lean of Enomis in favor of Joqiza's logic makes me think perhaps the argument could have been staged so they can "clash" and then "make up" after understanding each other?
In post 1295, joqiza wrote:
W.r.t. the autoloss, if truly necessary I can link the games I am talking about lol.
W.r.t. the reads, off the top of my head: the initial Clemency scumread, and the DkKoba/myself scumteam read. Both seemed very illogical to me and I disliked how you doubled down on them when the logic was challenged.
The initial scum read I think i explained quite thoroughly in our of my earlier posts?
The team read is just a pointer I noted, because I saw that you and dk have the same line of thought. So I thought it may be either you were a scumteam or because you both came from the same site. Pretty sure I said in where i typed out that post too. Anyway, I don't lynch people based on scumteams day 1 when there is no flipped scum.
You did explain the Clemency read, and I deconstructed it, and you never responded..
The "same line of thought" thing seemed very surface level to me and still does tbh.
Anyway, these reads are in the past, at some point if you could drop a readlist now that would be helpful. I understand you sr me but honestly like I would need to understand your other sr's to be able to analyze your perspective. If you have a reason to sr me other than me thinking u were in autoloss is "forced" let me know so I may at least respond.
Thx for at least responding to me
Deconstructed? Sorry, maybe you did the reconstruction during the massive spam of post which I did not bother to read detailed and missed.
I did drop my reads list before somewhere
But here again:
Town/ people I don't want to lynch for day 1.
midway,apogee ,maduisha,ydrasse ,quick
Null:
Votato
Slight scum:
DkKoba
Conflicted:
joqiza
Joqiza questions Enomis' reads again and asks for an updated readlist and he provides one. Joqiza says he "deconstructed" Enomis' townread of Quick and Enomis expresses that he did not notice such thing happening and seemingly doesn't care to fact-check if it happened...? This interaction is really complicated for me to read. Tbh, I think this might even be the strongest SvT tell for Enomis if what I understood is true, because in no way I see scum setting up theatre and having one of the two disregard the effort of the other. Scum want their buddy to be seen as an efforting townie, not someone you can shrug off like that.
That is the end of Joqiza-Enomis interactions for D1, but I still want to note down some D1 non-interactions of Enomis mentioning Joqiza because I think they will help with perspective also:
In post 1254, votato wrote:why? Elaborate. Why don't you think quick is worth a wagon? Enomis quick scumpair anyone?
I gut townread him. Which is better than you. No scum pair. But i think joqiza is scummy which i have said one page before. Also DkKoba minor scumread.
In this early post, Enomis expresses he thinks Joqiza is scummy already. Also mentions DK again.
#1872
Spoiler:
In post 1872, enomis wrote:Because it seems most likely joqiza will hammer quick.
Mentions what he thinks Joqiza is gonna do, even though Joqiza was trying to look like he was hedging between both wagons.
Now onto D2:
#2184
Spoiler:
In post 2184, enomis wrote:I am glad about this kill of midway actually. Auto, he is quite a universal townread, I am glad we got rid of one of the spammer in the games, together with the lynch on quick yesterday. Will make reading the game much easier.
Anyway, I think the kill on Midway may be because he soft-claimed PR.(With the "DOC ON ME" shout). At least that is how I view it. So mafia may have the same perception as me when kiling midway, because I see no way how they would kill midway today other than this.
Thus this kill may implicates guys who are more perceptive/experienced. So maybe DkKoba / Joqiza / Me.
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Lastly, I have a townread on Votato. I can't explain more on this but the gist is that I happen to read one of his on-going games and got a townread from there. Take it what you will.
I probably need to find time to re-read which I am dreading because of the spams. Because I am townreading almost everyone and that gives me a poe scum of joqiza/dkkoba.
Opening post. Says the nightkill implicates DK (who we now know was innocent), Joqiza and himself. The mention of those two is coherent with his reads up until this point, but his mention of himself makes me confused. I think it might be part of his playstyle to include himself in the list of possible suspects to put himself in other people's shoes, but I think as an opening post without people having mentioned Enomis at all as of yet, this inclusion is kind of weird and I don't really understand the purpose of it, since if you already know you are town, arguing you could be scummy is counterproductive unless you're trying to be insightful for other people's argument about you.
#2238, #2239, #2240, #2241, #2242, #2243, #2244, #2245, #2246, #2247, #2248, #2249 that I think need to be read together (sorry about the amount of quotes together but they were kind of a fluid conversation and I thought it was important):
If there is a 4th player I would throw into my above lynchlist, it would be votato
, simply because he seems more capable as a player and there are certain red flags which I’ve noticed. That said, if he is scum he is playing fairly well IMO and he was the first person outside of Koba to actually take initiative and try to evaluate my slot, even if the attempt was surface-level, in my personal experience this has been strongly strongly town-indicative.
The rest of the players at the table I don’t really want lynched today for reasons I’m already talked about.
joqiza, could you explain your thought process how you go from quick not being in your lynchlist and votato inside, to votato not inside and quick is lynched?
In post 2193, joqiza wrote:In case anyone needs clarification on why I ended up lynching Quick, it felt like the basis for his reads lacked any foundation and were generated opportunistically to push some sort of agenda rather than coming from any natural framework. His main reason for SRing votato was that votato’s ISO was full of “scumslips” when he posted about being biased against using slips to determine alignment. He made a lot of reads on people based on their level of effort but invalidated my own reads when I did the exact same thing. I understand that town can play that way, but at the end of the day I had to either 1. Hammer votato, 2. Hammer quick, 3. Try to gather votes on a counterwagon, and the people I would have been willing to counterwagon I don’t think I could have even gathered the votes for. I told Quick multiple times I believe that I was open to a counterwagon and if more people were online yesterday maybe we could've wagoned Maduisha. I did say exactly when I was gonna hammer by the way. The fact that all Quick could do was rage at Dk and votato and then after I made my case he basically just AtEd me with his "you're all so bad, I'm the only good one here" is what sealed his fate.
I saw this post, but is this worse than "Votato" Red flags that you mentioned?
If there is a 4th player I would throw into my above lynchlist, it would be votato
, simply because he seems more capable as a player and there are certain red flags which I’ve noticed. That said, if he is scum he is playing fairly well IMO and he was the first person outside of Koba to actually take initiative and try to evaluate my slot, even if the attempt was surface-level, in my personal experience this has been strongly strongly town-indicative.
The rest of the players at the table I don’t really want lynched today for reasons I’m already talked about.
joqiza, could you explain your thought process how you go from quick not being in your lynchlist and votato inside, to votato not inside and quick is lynched?
In post 2193, joqiza wrote:In case anyone needs clarification on why I ended up lynching Quick, it felt like the basis for his reads lacked any foundation and were generated opportunistically to push some sort of agenda rather than coming from any natural framework. His main reason for SRing votato was that votato’s ISO was full of “scumslips” when he posted about being biased against using slips to determine alignment. He made a lot of reads on people based on their level of effort but invalidated my own reads when I did the exact same thing. I understand that town can play that way, but at the end of the day I had to either 1. Hammer votato, 2. Hammer quick, 3. Try to gather votes on a counterwagon, and the people I would have been willing to counterwagon I don’t think I could have even gathered the votes for. I told Quick multiple times I believe that I was open to a counterwagon and if more people were online yesterday maybe we could've wagoned Maduisha. I did say exactly when I was gonna hammer by the way. The fact that all Quick could do was rage at Dk and votato and then after I made my case he basically just AtEd me with his "you're all so bad, I'm the only good one here" is what sealed his fate.
I saw this post, but is this worse than "Votato" Red flags that you mentioned?
In post 2249, enomis wrote:313 doesn't really explain much. Why are you okay with votato being in your 4th lynch pool despite you reading him as town?
Also, 2220 doesn't explain anything. You had Ydrasse as highly sus before your sheep.
Enomis asks Joqiza about the logic jump he made with his reads and Joqiza answers in monosyllabes or just with links. This happened before the guilty from Ydrasse, but it already denotes a defeatist Joqiza that is trying to answer giving the least amount of clues possible when answering other people. I am not exactly sure if it was because of the pressure from the rest or the pressure from Enomis alone, but this "covering" attitude seems to indicate SvT to me.
#2264
Spoiler:
In post 2264, enomis wrote:joqiza, you still haven't explained why you were willing to put votato in your lynchpool even though you townread him with minor red flags.
Also, I agree with votato. does that one post strike off your townread of ydrasse? Was your townread on her this weak?
Reinstatement for clarification of Joqiza's logic again, further hammering the idea that Enomis is onto Joqiza by now. Seems towny to me because the logic is sound and it's coherent with previous reads, the only strange thing for me here is the lack of a vote.
#2271
Spoiler:
In post 2271, enomis wrote:I haven't iso them so I wouldn't know. But what I want to know is your thoughts.
Sure, you can reconsider. But did that vote on you really strike-off your Town read on her.
Did you also consider the fact that 3 people are currently doing it.
Maybe let's rephrase my question, what is your view on yrrasse right now?
Also, don't be so defensive, I am trying to know your thoughts.
@dkkoba, just wanna know abit of joqiza meta from you.
does joqiza do this kind of why me post usually? Is this like his default playstyle?
Joqiza fails to explain the progression behind his reads and Enomis gives him yet another opportunity while asking him not to be "so defensive". I'm not sure if this is AI, but I think it once again drives home Enomis' suspicions of Joqiza not having legitimate thought process.
If there is a 4th player I would throw into my above lynchlist, it would be votato
, simply because he seems more capable as a player and there are certain red flags which I’ve noticed.
How did this 4th player in lynch pool transform to not lynching him on the day.
Nothing new here. Enomis still considers Joqiza hasn't answered his concerns at all and reinstates both of them (Votato and Ydrasse positioning from Joqiza) but still does not vote, it is just verbal pressure through repetition.
This is the end of all Enomis-Joqiza interactions unless I missed something. It was a longer journey than I expected because I thought there wouldn't be as much content, but there was as we can all see now laid out here. I have to say, while I found some wifom-able things here and there... their entire interaction looks like stubborn town vs scum, in all honesty. I said I wouldn't let the ISO dive cloud my judgement, but it made it harder and harder to hammer Enomis in this situation, Apogee.
Unless some major argument is brought up about how I'm wrong here... I think Enomis is looking townier out of you two and I'd be leaning towards voting you, Apogee. I won't vote right now because I want to give time for reads and considerations, but I think it's the solve that makes more sense through PoE.
In post 3238, Apogee wrote:So the biggest thing with the difference between 2370 and 2410 is that in between these posts I ISOd votato, got a chance to reread through Joqiza's D2, and changed my mind on if joqiza would fit. Yeah it was only 40 posts, but there were only two people (Dk and myself) who posted very much in there and it was over the course of 5 hours in an evening as I worked through stuff. Looking back from 2370 to my previous 3 posts you can see that they were way way back (2207, 2279, 2306) so I was behind in the thread. 2370 was my first takes on the situation and 2410 comes after I've thought through things. It would have been weird IMO if my reads on Joqiza hadn't evolved at all in that timeframe. I went back, thought about pairings, and said, yeah, this could be coming from scum!Joqiza and its more concerning than my first readthrough indicated and a few of the arguments make sense, but as the initial premise is mediocre in some ways I don't think he was the most likely.
I've already described my hesitancy with the Joqiza wagon (as in who was on it) at that time, and figured that it was plausible votato was co-opting it to keep himself out of the way.
I understand changing your mind about Joqiza, but the thing that I feel complicated about is that he didn't say something that suddenly pinged you as weird, but rather that you revisited the same emotional interaction with 2 different conclusions, if that makes sense. Did you find him more emotional once he started blaming Ydrasse of confbiasing? I'm trying to see the trigger in those 40 posts between your change of mind to try to put myself in your shoes...
So I'm not certain of my exact thought process two weeks later but I think it came down to catch-up versus reread and seeing how Joqiza's few posts between my initial and reconsidered takes on his emotions have a slightly more frantic energy. Like skimming the past 150ish posts stuff didn't seem emotional at first glance but I reconsidered it once I started building a scum!Joqiza picture and thought about it more after ISOing votato and seeing that joqiza was hard to clear from him.
So, what you're trying to say is that emotion *in itself* was not AI for you, but once you started reading his content with a scum-Joqiza mindset, the emotion
became
indicative of said alignment? Isn't that confirmation bias? I'm sorry, my headache is attacking me right now but that's what I understood there...
In post 3241, Maduisha wrote:
When I say Apogee's thoughts were fluid I mean that when I read his posts I could feel that I understood what was going through his mind in most cases. An opposite would be Quick, who posted lots constantly but I could never know what was on his mind. I hope that helps to see what I was trying to say (I'm sorry, I'm not a native speaker and sometimes I choose weird words, I guess). The willingness to re-read is not just investment, because he would come back with quotes from the thread from where he was re-reading, which is sort of proof of that re-read
actually
happening.
Scum can also emulate this, but I think faking thought process over empty content is a lot harder for scum, so that's why I separated it in two different bullet points and I didn't clump it together.
And I think your approach here shouldn't be "will they buy it or not?" and rather lay out your ideas so we can see where you come from. It's harder to comprehend you if you keep them to yourself is all I'm saying. I'm nobody to tell you how to play the game, but I actually think it'd help.
I think very little people lie about re-reading. Either they straight up don't re-read or if they have announced that they have re-read, they usually did. So I think this still merge into one point which is investment.
What do you mean by the
red highlighted portion
. What do you mean by empty content? Do you as scum find it hard to find things scummy about people?
-------
Regarding the nightkill, I will use it if I think it will support my argument in a way that may have a chance to convince you all. If not, it will just be a waste of my time and your time to put it there. You will just read it and think, yeah, wifom.(Given that you all already don't believe my opening post where that is part of my night kill analysis).
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Also, I believe you have not answered this question:
In post 3224, enomis wrote:
Did you think of Dkkoba as a strong player? How and why?
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
In post 3245, Apogee wrote:
That's a pretty anti-town statement to make. Just cause I lean you doesn't mean I shouldn't consider Maduisha scummy -- winning lylos as town is difficult enough as it is needing the 2 town players to agree. Calling me content is also a bit reductionist as just because I haven't laid into people yet today doesn't mean I'm not working on building cases, which I am.
Ok, I will wait for your case.
"you must prove more patient than a caterpillar, more willing to survive than a cockroach, and more stubborn than a leech - or you will definitely fail" - Counselor Rodriguez, the Star of Wisdom
Homertve: "Oh, and by the way, your tail is on fire."
. I think generally how she dealt with the pressure d1 looks a lot better in retrospect and her progressions and arguments have been rational. Actually, something one of you mentioned about how joqiza probably wasn't lynched sans cop made me think how she could have been trying to distance going into D3 but I really didn't get a vibe of scum theatre there.