Power Brokers: Game of Thrones - Game Over

[Rubicon]

Good morning.

VOTE: Auro

That’s two votes on you. You’re basically lynched already, so you might as well confess and tell us who your partners are.

[Rubicon]

Ygritte leans town so far. That's my only read right now.

On the one hand, my first instinct is to like where KMD's brain is coming from with regard to scumhunting inside the groups. The premise is probably wrong - anything other than a random distribution of scum to groups would be unbalanced imo - but it's an idea that someone might be more likely to have as town.

On the other hand, KMD is saying he

knows

that it's a town idea - and making sure we're aware that this town thought process definitely happened inside his brain because of how town he is.

And then he's... not acting on it. If you actually are town and believe you have better odds of finding scum inside your own group, don't you start the game by doing that? He's starting the game by going after someone

not

in his own group, which seems weird.

[Rubicon]

There are bad birds and there ar eother burds.

[Rubicon]

More people should vote Auro.

[Rubicon]

man this game will be a learning experience that's for sure

House Molla reporting for duty

I've asked ABR, but just to clarify as far as ya'll understand, scum only have the same abilities we do right? Cause I think there is some way we can game this system I just don't understand the full system yet.

My very rough understanding so far is that all players have access to some combination of Noble Actions, Court Actions, or Spy Network actions, depending on their role (Noble/Power Broker/Court Official). There are no secret abilities.

These actions can be performed by either the player, or their "second in command" NPC (which I guess mostly matters for interactions with other powers that can target either the player or the player's second in command).

I'm not really clear yet on whether specific actions can only be performed by the player, or only by the second in command.

The scum have the same powers as town, according to their role, plus one additional NPC who can perform Spy Network actions for them.

[Rubicon]

That makes sense - thanks for explaining.

[Rubicon]

this is a snorefest

Needs more daykills tbh.

[Rubicon]

You mean like a democracy? What kind of noble are you?

I'm on board with this one:
VOTE: Porkens

[Rubicon]

Not in favor of the KMD wagon, his iso looks pretty town on a quick read. Auro isn't bad, but not something I feel comfortable with at the moment. Will hop on if needed yet we have 5 days to do something.

I'll second Auro's request for more details on why you're not comfortable with voting him at the moment.

Also, is anyone else jumping out at you as suspicious?

[Rubicon]

^ soft defense of a scum partner.

Porkens today, Firebringer tomorrow.

[Rubicon]

Is this how bbmolla usually plays these days?

I've been away from mafia and this website for a few years but I remember his play being less... I dunno... superficial

"Auro is probably town for the wagon on him" ???

I mean he might actually be town after reading 179/180 but that's some weak ass reasoning

[Rubicon]

I didn't realize your vote on Shireen was serious.

Why is she scum?

[Rubicon]

If so, she's probably done some scummy things that you could point out in order to convince me and others to join you in lynching her.

[Rubicon]

While Ygritte isn't really scumhunting atm, knowing their main it's NAI for now.

Rubicon: Molla has quite a bit of previous experience with me, if that makes any difference.

Fair enough.

I assume that goes both ways, so is your read on him pretty null so far?

[Rubicon]

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[Rubicon]

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

[Rubicon]

I put this together for myself and thought others might find it helpful. Let me know if I made a mistake anywhere.

Current Player Locations

Auro Castle Auro's Army		BBMolla Castle BBMolla's Army		Firebringer Castle Firebringer's Army
Capital City Arya Stark | Auro | BBmolla | Elena Fisher | Firebringer | Flavor Leaf | Kmd LicketyQuickety | Nero Cain | Porkens | Rubicon | Shireen Baratheon | votato | Ygritte Auro's Second | BBmolla's Second | Elena Fisher's Second | Firebringer's Second Flavor Leaf's Second | Nero Cain's Second | Porkens's Second Rubicon's Second | Shireen Baratheon's Second
Flavor Leaf Castle Flavor Leaf's Army			Shireen Baratheon Castle Shireen Baratheon's Army

Ability Chart

Each phase (day), you can use 1 ability from each row under your role. If you have a third-in-command, they can perform an additional action on your behalf.

	Nobles	Court Officials	Power Brokers
Players	Firebringer Flavor Leaf BBmolla Auro Shireen Baratheon	votato Arya Stark LicketyQuickety Ygritte Kmd4390	Rubicon Nero Cain Elena Fisher Porkens
Travel Abilities (travel to castle / capital city)	Travel Without Household Guard Travel With Household Guard	None	Travel Without Household Guard
Player Abilities	Kill Hostage / Violate Guest Right Release Hostage Recruit New Household Guard Call the Banners Move the Army Lay Siege to Castle	Investigate Death Investigate Plots Investigate Escape Routes Disband House Guard Arrest Second In Command Release Second In Command	None
Second-In-Command Abilities	House Arrest	None	Plan Assassination Infiltrate Intelligence Network Take Hostage Distract Court Official
Special Abilities (must be earned)	Recruit Ally Secret Alliance Escape Route (passive)	Recruit Ally Secret Alliance Escape Route (passive)	Recruit Ally Secret Alliance Escape Route (passive)

Burst (Instant) | Fast (One Phase Later) | Slow (Two Phases Later)

Italic

– Hidden Action | Not Italic – Public Action | Some public actions are revealed the following day.

[Rubicon]

I don’t want to lynch LQ anymore but I need to think about who to switch to.
UNVOTE:

[Rubicon]

@ABR:

Do Court Official roles disappear permanently when a Court Official dies, or would we be able to appoint new officials with a coup even after the original ones died?

[Rubicon]

Special Actions: (has a chance of being given each time a player takes an aggressive action: arrest, kill, kidnap, disband):
-Recruit ally (gain an NPC third-in-command that will give you an additional action per phase, can only be used once per game) (slow) (hidden)
-Secret alliance (neighborizer, 1-shot) (burst) (hidden)

-Escape route (1-shot evade assassination or hostage execution) (triggers upon threat) (hidden)

Sweet. This is how Court Officials can prevent getting NK'd.
LQ, you can Disband my Guard and then take the Escape Route power
I personally don't care for Guards, I want to travel fast between castles.

Pretty sure the awarded special powers are random?

[Rubicon]

Spy Network Actions:
-Plan assassination (kill a player's second-in-command if there is one accompanying him, if none, then kill player. Must designate location of player at time of resolution or action fails) (slow) (hidden)
-Infiltrate intelligence network (Has a chance to unlock after the first Secret Alliance is made. Pick 2 players you suspect of having a secret alliance and become a hidden observer in their PT) (fast) (hidden)
-Take hostage (must target a player without a household guard (or busy arresting) to a designated castle and jailkeep them, must designate target player's location at resolution) (slow) (hidden)
-Distract Court Official (this ability is rotated between Power Brokers every phase) (burst) (public)

None of these seem helpful to town.

Take Hostage is a valuable role for both alignments. For example, if we agree that Court Officials will be targeted for the first few scum assassinations, we could agree to take the Court Officials hostage at random locations, protecting them with the jailkeep and (maybe?) interfering with scum's ability to use the same Take Hostage power to prep their assassinations. Would that work?

There might also be some value in Power Brokers jailkeeping each other, but I'm too tired right now to think that through.

(I'm not sure how multiple conflicting jailkeeps resolve in this setup, the action resolution isn't really clear on that.)

Plan Assassination seems really anti-town in the early game phases, but I don't feel good about restricting town kill power later on. Yes, this might backfire horribly, but still - sometimes you get into a situation where you need an extra kill to win.

[Rubicon]

What kind of situation? If there's any very special situation, town can collectively agree to allow vigs at that point, no?

Sure, and "never assassinate anyone secretly or without getting town approval" is a version of the rule I would fully support.

[Rubicon]

-Arrest second-in-command (type: Arrest: Player1's 2nd (only works if they are in capital city) (burst) (public)

COs can just neuter Power Brokers and then hope to get the Escape gift today, while the Power Brokers are still in Capital and there's nothing to flip

Basically I hate this and think it's anti-fun but it might also be optimal, so whatever.

[Rubicon]

People I don't want to lynch: Elena, LQ, Aero, votato, kmd.

There's definitely scum in that list somewhere, but we can get them later.

I'd be down to lynch Firebringer (obvious scum with zero pro-town posts), Nero Cain (artificial / poorly reasoned reads), or Porkens (??).

VOTE: Firebringer

[Rubicon]

You shouldn't disband your guard. It protects you from House Arrest and Take Hostage, and you can't House Arrest anyone else if you lose your guard.

[Rubicon]

-Arrest second-in-command (type: Arrest: Player1's 2nd (only works if they are in capital city) (burst) (public)

COs can just neuter Power Brokers and then hope to get the Escape gift today, while the Power Brokers are still in Capital and there's nothing to flip

Basically I hate this and think it's anti-fun but it might also be optimal, so whatever.

I changed my mind, this is a pretty good plan.

Once we have more information the COs can release the Power Brokers they think are town.

[Rubicon]

Can the scum NPC bypass Escape Plan too?

[Rubicon]

People I don't want to lynch: Elena, LQ, Aero, votato, kmd.

There's definitely scum in that list somewhere, but we can get them later.

this is ewwww

Which part, the reads or the part about getting possible scum in the list later?

[Rubicon]

the part about scum in the list for later

I probably could have phrased that better. To be clear, "don't want to lynch" means they've all done things I liked, but they're not super strong townreads yet. I'll continue to look at them but there are scummier players like Firebringer that I'd prefer to lynch first.

[Rubicon]

votato, rubi and ygrite team?

Have you explained either of the votato/ygritte reads yet?

[Rubicon]

how can you ask that if you already called my reasoning poor?

Would you explain those two reads, please?

[Rubicon]

I think Porkens is a better lynch than all of them, personally.

I kind of feel like it’s possible he believes this is pro-town play LOL

[Rubicon]

I will be happy to answer that question and any others you have for me after you answer mine.

[Rubicon]

I'm stubborn too, but it just grinds my gears when I ask someone to explain a read and they evade. It's not necessarily a scum thing, but in my mind if you're town, you should want to convince me to vote your top scumreads. If you think Ygritte or votato are legit the scummiest players in the game, and I'm sitting here waiting to be persuaded, why evade?

Using some dumb "gotcha" on a logical contradiction as your excuse to do it doesn't make me feel better about your reads not being artificial.

[Rubicon]

Why on earth is Auro the top wagon still?

[Rubicon]

combobreaker

[Rubicon]

sorry I couldn't resist

I read the thread and made a mental note of not liking your reasoning at a couple points. Then I posted that in the thread. Your Ygritte read is one example, since in my opinion there is more to read in her ISO than just the gimmick, and this is page 24 - I think that being your strongest scumread still seems artificial. I also thought you grabbed onto my Pork-scum ideas in the PT a little too easily.

I just looked up your votato read and I guess I thought you might have more to say about them since it's your strongest read.

[Rubicon]

Language fucking matters - true!
But so does intent and the progression of a person's reads and reactions through a game. The reads you're giving out are surface-level.

Language is an easy thing to pick on people for as scum, because people make language and logical errors all the time that can be grabbed onto for mislynches. That's the kind of thing I'm watching in your play, and why I was hoping you would give a more detailed case on those two players.

[Rubicon]

Power Broker PT.

I'd also like to point out that I when I replaced in everyone but Porkens had posted in my hood so I asked if Porkens was scum b/c of it. This happened BEFORE Porkens voted me ITT. He later claimed that he never saw but in the back of my mind I had it that Pork was voting and retaliating here b/c I kinda called him out in the hood.

Basically, Nero posted in the PT that Porkens might be scum for not posting there. Shortly after, Porkens called Nero out in the main thread for coming into the game super aggressively and trying to shock people into townreading him, even though he wasn't

really

being all that aggressive. I suggested that Porkens might feel like Nero was being aggressive because he was scum and in an overly defensive mindset.

Porkens then claimed to have not realized the PT existed / not have read Nero's posts. When he did read the PT, he immediately unvoted Nero, which Nero pointed out didn't make much sense as a response (if he thought Nero was scummy in the main thread, that should still have been true).

I still think this is all suspicious, even though I'm also paranoid about nero now and wondering if he jumped on what I said too easily. >.>

[Rubicon]

Do either of you have a read on Firebringer so far?

[Rubicon]

Would you explain those two reads, please?

but you've already read my explanation (at least the parts I've mentioned) and you called it poor. But now you are saying that I haven't offered an explanation so which is it? Have I not explained my reads or was my reasoning poor?

I'm not really liking that you were supposedly suspicious of me for voting Pork early on. Don't you think I was already mildly suspicious of him for not posting and his reaction. I don't need you to tell me how yo think and feel.

Fair enough.

This argument feels unproductive so I'm not going to bother going into it anymore. I'd still like to hear more from you about your reads, but I acknowledge it's D1 and maybe this will happen more later.

[Rubicon]

Nobles see whoever visits them, right?

[Rubicon]

Elena, what do you think of Auro's plan?

[Rubicon]

I just reread ygrite's ISO and I am seeing nothing but gimmick/fluff posting and sheeping Shireen.

I mean I guess she calls KMD scum and Pork town in 137 and 139, respectively.

now there is

Fine, since I am a Lannister, I will repay my debts and provide reads:

Porkens
Shireen
BBmolla
----------
votato
Nero Cain

VOTE: Nero Cain

wich I took as a reaction to

We are killing votato or ygrite, right?

and then she

kinda

lies about it

384: Nero, how was I OMGUSing you when you made no mention of me until I voted you? You OMGUSed me, you scummy Ironborn.

ofc, she'll say that she never saw my 186 but the fact of the matter is that she has 2 unexplained reads.

Since you disagree with me that ygrite was doing nothing but gimmick posting can you explain what else she's doing?

I mean, of course, this doesn't mean ygrit

HAS

to be scum b/c sure there are times town has done this and I'm certainly aware of that but at the same time I don't think anyone should just intsa town read that. If you don't think its scum play and there's certainly the possibility it's not but having anything more than a null or lean scum read on that slot seems

but the sheeping and the OMGUS deff seems scummy to me.

I think I understand your read better after reading these two posts. Specifically, the issue with two unexplained reads.

Have you played with ygritte before?

[Rubicon]

I slept for 5 hours and woke up thinking Nero is probably town.

[Rubicon]

Fill in the blanks game:

If Ygritte is scummy for posting nothing but gimmick/fluff posting and sheeping (and the read thing)

Firebringer is ___ for posting ___?

[Rubicon]

Firebringer is ___ for posting ___?

null, like firebringer

Meaning what?
I skimmed a few of Firebringer's recent completed games. I realize this is how he plays, but it seems like he's also capable of having reads and scumhunting, even on D1.

Here is a quick summary of his ISO in this game:

- all nobles must die
- votato is suspicious for posting reads
- molla's post is "DUMB"
- he likes that auro is posting setup talk
- all the setup talk makes him want to go to sleep
- the entire game thread has no substance and no one has done anything worth responding to

I disagree that this is null. Even meme players eventually do something that shows they care about finding scum.

[Rubicon]

all nobles must die

this was his fist post in the game. I don't know if anyone can honestly read it as anything but a troll post.

He's only been voting Nobles.

Of course it's trolling, that's the point.

[Rubicon]

I do not have agency.

What do you mean by this?

[Rubicon]

What do you feel that ygritte has been doing thats not gimmick posting?

This is going to disappoint you but it's honestly just a vibe read.
I agree with you I should probably put her closer to null.

[Rubicon]

Who’s “he”?@rubicon

Firebringer.

[Rubicon]

To be honest I don't understand the mechanics and stuff either

No need to be honest, Kmd; you should keep lying, it suits you more.

No need to be honest, Kmd; you should keep lying, it suits you more.

Scum post?

Maybe. Feels more like a comment for the sake of it than trying to accomplish anything productive.

Yeah, it’s not even conversational

No need to be questioning, Porkens; you should stick to being strong town, it suits you more.

Nibble?

No need to bite me, Porkens; you should keep your distance, it suits you more.

one wonders about the infatuation with suits. Perhaps I should mention this curiosity to my spymaster.

sips wine

This is the series of posts that originally gave me a positive vibe on Ygritte. She didn't give a fuck here, and I liked that.
It's not a strong read.

[Rubicon]

I think probably Firebringer is scum who doesn't think his team will win, either because the setup makes kills hard, or because the team composition is weak.

[Rubicon]

VOTE: Porkens

[Rubicon]

I’m ok with being arrested for one main reason, which is that COs can become bulletproof. That’s the only plan I’ve seen that seems to have the slightest chance of helping anything so let’s do it.

[Rubicon]

Ideally all the PBs would be arrested by different COs.

[Rubicon]

I don’t get the Shireen town read.

[Rubicon]

Wait a minute. I'm not townreading Fire...

!
VOTE: Firebringer

[Rubicon]

Vote Count 1.02

Auro (4): votato, Rubicon, Kmd, BBmolla
Shireen Baratheon (1): Firebringer
Kmd (3): Auro, Shireen Baratheon, Ygritte
Not Voting (6): Arya Stark, Porkens, Flavor Leaf, The Trollie, Elena Fisher, momo

14 alive, 8 to lynch!

(expired on 2020-06-20 08:53:47)

remain until the end of week 1!

Winter is coming. We should consolidate.

Would you be down to lynch Firebringer?

[Rubicon]

So you townrean Firebringer?

[Rubicon]

Awkward deadline for Pacific Timers.
I'll be asleep at deadline but will keep an eye on this thread for the next few hours.

[Rubicon]

You need to arrest my second. "Rubicon's 2nd"
Or else it won't work.

You can arrest anyone with a second in command (anyone except Court Officials) but we're doing Power Brokers to try to lock down rogue assassinations.

Since there are four PBs and five COs, at least one of you should disband Auro's guard since he apparently wants that and it has an equal chance of making you BP.

[Rubicon]

Also you should arrest the person you scumread the most since the other COs might not be around to do it otherwise.

[Rubicon]

The current votes are super depressing especially when you consider we don't even get flips until d3.

I'm fine with lynching a lurker if we have to. I just don't really see any reason to think Shireen is scum, as opposed to Firebringer who I am very comfident is scum.

[Rubicon]

Unofficial VC

Shireen Baratheon (5): Elena Fisher, Arya Stark, LicketyQuicket, Kmd, Porkens
Firebringer (2): Auro, Rubicon
Ygritte (2): Firebringer, Nero Cain
Auro (1): votato
Kmd (1): Shireen Baratheon
Votato (1): Ygritte
Rubicon (1): BBmolla

Not Voting (1): Flavor Leaf

[Rubicon]

wow i was kind of excited about like 10 new pages to this game and then i skimmed it not finding anything that i was that into responding to or even reacting to.

maybe I got to take this game as memey or something. cause the shitstorm of lq/nero was snoring unless maybe I add some playful commentary to it.
All the mechanic talk making me want to go to sleep and i am really tired maybe i should do that.

and everyones pushes are like not even worth questioning why they do that cause they got nothing on nobody to do anything of substance.

THE ONLY SUBSTANCE I GOT WAS LICKETY AND NERO AND IT WAS MOSTLY JUST "I DONT LIKE U" "NO I DONT LIKE U".

Later on we'll look back on this as a scum claim and wonder why we left him alive.

[Rubicon]

VOTE: vote firebringer
we go agane

[Rubicon]

I don't townread either of those players so I'm open to lynching them depending on what they, and FB, do today.

[Rubicon]

rubicon u can only tunnel me for so long my dude.

BEFORE I PLOT WITH THE SCUM TEAM TO BETRAY THE TOWN AND SACK UR VILLAGE AND KILL ALL UR PEOPLE AS REVENGE FOR THIS BETRAYAAL

I would be easily convinced you're town if you started doing town stuff.
But so far I'm only seeing scum stuff.

The tunnel continues.

[Rubicon]

Help build the momentum in the meantime, in that case?

VOTE: FL

[Rubicon]

People not using abilities or traveling yesterday is f'd up.

Especially LQ

[Rubicon]

oh wait I think I see what happened with lq

[Rubicon]

I love that the only PB not to be arrested is Porkens.

But also for some reason his 2nd is still in the capital.

[Rubicon]

People not using abilities or traveling yesterday is f'd up.

Especially LQ

And you didn't travel either, so

That was deliberate. If scum expect everyone to travel to castles, staying in the city is actually safer.

I'll travel to a random castle today to avoid death.

[Rubicon]

I checked, and apparently that isn't how it works. They have to target you at your destination location. If you travel today, they have to guess your destination in order to assassinate you.

[Rubicon]

(It's a little weird from a mechanical point of view since it makes NKs so much harder, but it does match the flavor: If you start traveling week 2, you wouldn't expect to still be in the capital at the start of week 3, even if your arrival at another place hasn't been announced yet.)

[Rubicon]

Should LQ reveal his D1 action result? Or is this better kept hidden for now?

[Rubicon]

I don’t know how close to lynch we are but Anyone who hammers before town can understand and get their actions on this phase in s scum and will be killed.

I'm investigating plot. Would expect another court officer to do the same and two others investigate escape routes. Last one should Investigate death, but IDK if that would work for lynches or not.

I think you are forgetting some stuff.

what stuff? if others have already sent them in they need to say so. I'm not going through the thread to find out.

I've said what I have done like a billion times already. I had a long discussion with Auro about it. Did someone wipe your memory or something?

However, I think he was also roleblocked by Porkens for some reason, so it might not matter.

[Rubicon]

someone should probably arrest this guy before he assassinates auro

[Rubicon]

I'd like to get some confirmation on whether Porkens distracted LQ or LQ used an ability.

Because if Porkens did use Distract, he wouldn't have been able to submit any assassinations yesterday, and if he didn't, we should make LQ reveal his result to prove he didn't investigate Escape Routes.

[Rubicon]

Why's molla town

[Rubicon]

Okay I think the kmd kill can only mechanically come from town. If anyone claims it and there's no CC, they're confirmed town. I'll explain after someone claims it.

Yo I was thinking the same thing.

My brain was going around in circles trying to figure out how it could be a scum kill and then I realized it wasn't.

[Rubicon]

Shows how much i was paying attention. I literally thought KMD was low key a universal townread for everyone. Not like high townread but universal town lean at least.

Quoting this for later analysis.

[Rubicon]

Cases are for nerds

[Rubicon]

LQ, what was your D1 action & result?

[Rubicon]

There were 3 plots last night for kidnap/assassination. We know one was probably killing KMD. That means the others are likely kidnap.

Ah. Thank you.

[Rubicon]

I've taken no actions so far this game, and was under the impression that arrests interrupt assassination plots.

Does House Arrest count as a plot? Or maybe Distract?

[Rubicon]

Have you read much of the game yet?

[Rubicon]

Apparently Investigate Plots does in fact include plots submitted by arrested players before they were arrested. Also, it only includes Spy Network actions (take hostage and assassinate).

[Rubicon]

Nope.

[Rubicon]

I recommend that whichever PB (other than me) who did not use one of those actions should tell us, so we can know who did, or force a counterclaim situation.

[Rubicon]

Do you want to vote FB? We could make it L-3

Were you scumreading FB here, Arya?

[Rubicon]

VOTE: firebringer

So that's why someone said you or Rubicon. Ok

Arrest Rubicon

Unvote, Vote Shireen

Is anyone even here?

Arrest rubicons second

VOTE: Rubicon

Reading the context around those quotes will show that I knew he arrested me (I helped him correct his action to arrest me properly) and therefore had a good chance of being BP. It makes no sense for scum-me to assassinate him in that world. The kill was most likely submitted before he used his action. Which also makes it really weird for scum-me to point out the mistake in his action instead of hoping he would log off without noticing -- and in any case, that timing would make your argument against me here invalid anyway.

[Rubicon]

UNVOTE:
just to avoid early hammers

[Rubicon]

Two people in my PoE just aren't posting: Votato and Firebringer. Fire posts sometimes, but with a very high noise:signal ratio is how I read it; and he's pretty sharp and more aggressive when town.

I think that's a sufficient scumcase for Fire. So, let's vote him?

LQ, this is Auro's actual reason for voting Firebringer.

I understand why you don't like him characterizing the read as PoE later, but in fairness, this game state basically demands scumhunting through PoE. Half the player list is doing nothing. You would expect the scum team to keep their heads down, and avoid risky plays that draw attention to themselves - which doesn't lend itself to being able to make long, detailed cases against anyone. FB at least has made legitimately scummy posts, as you yourself pointed out earlier.

[Rubicon]

And FWIW I really think you two are both town.

Auro has had genuine reactions throughout the game, and is putting in a level of scumhunting effort that would frankly be a little silly to try to fake as scum in this game. Also, LQ used Investigate Plots publicly on D1 which is super town and nobody can convince me otherwise.

Expand on Rubicon and Votato?

Seconding this request.

[Rubicon]

Two people in my PoE just aren't posting: Votato and Firebringer. Fire posts sometimes, but with a very high noise:signal ratio is how I read it; and he's pretty sharp and more aggressive when town.

I think that's a sufficient scumcase for Fire. So, let's vote him?

LQ, this is Auro's actual reason for voting Firebringer.

I understand why you don't like him characterizing the read as PoE later, but in fairness, this game state basically demands scumhunting through PoE. Half the player list is doing nothing. You would expect the scum team to keep their heads down, and avoid risky plays that draw attention to themselves - which doesn't lend itself to being able to make long, detailed cases against anyone. FB at least has made legitimately scummy posts, as you yourself pointed out earlier.

Quoting to bring this onto the new page.

[Rubicon]

You are getting in the way of my Scum hunting and I don't like it.

I don't give a shit.

The only way town loses this game is by eating itself in pointless TvT arguments.

[Rubicon]

OK I'm back to thinking nero cain is scum.

[Rubicon]

I can leave you with this for the mean time, since I don't need mechanics to get some reads:

Auro's frustration towards LQ's vote comes from town more often than scum. Scum knows they have to be cool at that kind of misreps and Auro's frustration seemed legit and not an overreaction as I would expect scum to do. Rubicon's participation in that 1v1 is scummy, either with LQ being scum and fabricating some kind of distancing, or with LQ being town and trying to defuse the 1v1 before it was obvious both Auro and LQ are town, and pocketing both ends at the same time.

This is a decent post, even though you're totally wrong about the me stuff.

Looking forward to your analysis of the game now and wondering which of the two worlds you think is happening here (LQ being scum that I'm distancing from or LQ being town that I'm trying to pocket).

[Rubicon]

I've been talking to Nero about his D1 action in the Power Broker PT. He's claimed using Take Hostage to kidnap LQ before he was arrested - apparently because Porkens was going to roleblock LQ on D1, so the D3 jailkeep would be a safe way to get a special ability.

I don't understand why he's refusing to claim this in the main thread, especially if he thinks the person he's been discussing it with in the PT (me) is scum.

We're certainly not a mason chat, so even though the action itself might potentially be from either town or scum, I think his evasiveness on the subject is more likely to come from scum.

[Rubicon]

Nero's action is fine, and so is his responses to my questions, including not wanting to say where he was going to kidnap LQ to (which is not a Nero travel action FYI).

I just think he'd be responding to those questions

here

if he were town. There's no reason to fear an open and transparent discussion of a cancelled action as town. It's more likely to come from scum who got nervous on being called out for something he thought would be secret.

[Rubicon]

I've been talking to Nero about his D1 action in the Power Broker PT. He's claimed using Take Hostage to kidnap LQ before he was arrested - apparently because Porkens was going to roleblock LQ on D1, so the D3 jailkeep would be a safe way to get a special ability.

I don't understand why he's refusing to claim this in the main thread, especially if he thinks the person he's been discussing it with in the PT (me) is scum.

We're certainly not a mason chat, so even though the action itself might potentially be from either town or scum, I think his evasiveness on the subject is more likely to come from scum.

That actually makes perfect sense. The mod recently informed me one of the actions out of the 3 was invalid, which must have been Nero's.

I agree, and it basically confirms your result.

(With Porkens probably using assassinate on Auro.)

[Rubicon]

I just think he'd be responding to those questions here if he were town. There's no reason to fear an open and transparent discussion of a cancelled action as town. It's more likely to come from scum who got nervous on being called out for something he thought would be secret.

Ah so tl;dr Nero is scared of me so doesn't want to talk in the main thread

I see

(:P )

You and others, I think.

Bottom line, Nero is claiming an action that could be anti-town -- kidnapping someone to a castle means that scum can kill them without needing to guess the location. His stated reason for doing so doesn't make sense -- a d1 Distract and d3 jailkeep don't interact. Then he's being evasive about it for no good reason. He's probably scum.

[Rubicon]

I've played with Nero extensively over the years, fwiw, and still think he's scum.

My current reads are something like:

Town:

LicketyQuickety
Auro
Porkens
Elena
Shireen (weak read)

The muddle in the middle:

Ygritte
votato
BBmolla
Pink Ball
Arya Stark

Scum:

Nero Cain
Firebringer

[Rubicon]

I'd prefer to lynch Firebringer or Nero today, but to be fair Nero is arrested so he's less of a threat mechanically.

[Rubicon]

Power Broker PT.

I am guessing he WAS active during this time and this was when Rubicon was Asking Nero stuff.

Your reasoning is going over my head here, but yes this is correct.

[Rubicon]

Reading the context around those quotes will show that I knew he arrested me (I helped him correct his action to arrest me properly) and therefore had a good chance of being BP. It makes no sense for scum-me to assassinate him in that world. The kill was most likely submitted before he used his action. Which also makes it really weird for scum-me to point out the mistake in his action instead of hoping he would log off without noticing -- and in any case, that timing would make your argument against me here invalid anyway.

[Rubicon]

pisskop, would like to hear your thoughts on firebringer and Nero Cain specifically once you’re caught up.

[Rubicon]

I've been talking to Nero about his D1 action in the Power Broker PT. He's claimed using Take Hostage to kidnap LQ before he was arrested - apparently because Porkens was going to roleblock LQ on D1, so the D3 jailkeep would be a safe way to get a special ability.

I don't understand why he's refusing to claim this in the main thread, especially if he thinks the person he's been discussing it with in the PT (me) is scum.

We're certainly not a mason chat, so even though the action itself might potentially be from either town or scum, I think his evasiveness on the subject is more likely to come from scum.

That actually makes perfect sense. The mod recently informed me one of the actions out of the 3 was invalid, which must have been Nero's.

Our claims now contradict this result. There are two failed actions, one valid action claimed by Porkens, and presumably the scum assassinate (unless that doesn’t count).

[Rubicon]

the democracy shit is just LAMIST. Doing "town" thing doesn't necessarily make one town.

Stop being daft, the point was to illustrate that I couldn't start being a dictator after extolling democracy. I didn't say that makes me town, I said that if I solo power grab later that would make me scum.

Your problem is you think Nero is arguing with you because he disagrees and you just have to change his mind with rational arguments when he’s actually just arguing with everything to create mist.

[Rubicon]

No, but as I said, I’ve played with Nero many times and have a pretty good grasp of how he thinks.

[Rubicon]

Our claims now contradict this result. There are two failed actions, one valid action claimed by Porkens, and presumably the scum assassinate (unless that doesn’t count).

????

I tried to send in a LQ kidnap or w/e it was
u r claiming ?????
piss is claiming that elena tried to murder vota
pork said he did something

Right, but that’s four total plots with two invalid, when the result is three total actions with one invalid. Could be the scum plot doesn’t count since it resolved first, or something.

I already claimed no action.

[Rubicon]

Look at these rich nobles talking about having fun in their castles while some of us rot away in the dungeons dreaming of a chance to see daylight again, smh my head

[Rubicon]

It's not suspicion, just a lack of a confident townread.

Rubi is town. Stfu nero

lmao

[Rubicon]

Auro, I’ll take a look at Nero’s meta as soon as I have some time. It might not be tomorrow because of irl responsibilities.

[Rubicon]

Untargetable is not the same as undetectable, though.

[Rubicon]

No actions here.

BTW We might want to plan some additional arrests before end of day.
And also consider whether there is an effective way to use Take Hostage to protect COs from lynching by moving them out of the capital.

[Rubicon]

Protect from NK I mean.

[Rubicon]

Since the NK has to know the target’s location, moving them out of the capital is protective.

[Rubicon]

Also, I think I see the most likely solution to the Investigate Plots contradiction but I’m going to think on it more before discussing.

[Rubicon]

And also consider whether there is an effective way to use Take Hostage to protect COs from lynching by moving them out of the capital.

It's slow so we lose one more CO anyway, though

Yes, but we could potentially protect some of them.

[Rubicon]

I think I townread pisskop’s entrance.
Elena was fairly town so it’s good confirmation of my vibes there.

[Rubicon]

Fun fact if we all push pink all and he is town he will obv town rage at us

Do we want that as part of the fun gang? No not really.

But it is a fun fact!

Tbh I think that could be fun but I might just be mean.

Was expecting more from him by now for sure!

[Rubicon]

Everybody stopped talking so I guess I’ll go to bed now.
Good night to all of you.

p-edit except nero

[Rubicon]

As summarized as possible:

I have told FB I have a towntell on him that if he doesn't do it during an ammount of time I estimate, then he's probably scum. That towntell is having fun. FB has fun as scum too, but with less freedom, so it feels awkward at times. As I said, FB knows that's the way I read him, so him going with the fun block with me inside, it's a direct message to me, telling me he's town, that I should trust him.

Given the context of this game, where I'm not involved and lurking, he wouldn't lose his time trying to get townread by me when I'm not a deciding factor;

scum FB would focus on other players rather than me, 'cause I don't have the wim to defend him. Instead, town!FB do this in an attempt to read me, not to defend himself: FB is scumhunting even at L-1. That's town. FB talking about my town meta, where I freak out when I'm wagoned, is proof that what he's doing right now is not survivalism, but rather creating new content that will help us to get a better read of the game even if he's lynched.

As I said, this is a towntell specifically to me, but if you throw the context he's involved right now, I think the way he's playing at L-1 should be enough to reconsider a vote on him.

Pretty sure Firebringer is just scum, Pink. The bolded sentence is bad logic. "I'm not involved and lurking" and "I'm not a deciding factor" is something that might seem obvious to you, but I thought you were catching up before dropping good content on us (that's what you were indicating before this post). FB probably did too, and if you have history together, he has every reason in the world to post things you would townread.

[Rubicon]

VOTE: Firebringer
I think that's L-1. Nobody hammer yet please, I still need to figure out where I'm traveling to.

[Rubicon]

I know LQ is not a Titus alt but it's hard for me not to read them as similar. I keep catching myself using Titus meta to evaluate his posts and realizing that's probably wrong.

[Rubicon]

We might want to have two COs check the flip tomorrow for verification in case the first CO ends up being scum giving false info.

[Rubicon]

I've been mixed on Ygritte for most of the game, however -

Oh yeah, what should I submit to the mod today? Investigate plots? Disband a guard?

Does disbanding someone's guard help or hurt them?

I don't really want to disband any of these people then. What else can I do?

This is probably town. It's not how I would expect a scum CO to discuss and plan using their power.

[Rubicon]

NOBODY HAMMER I DIDN'T TRAVEL YET

[Rubicon]

here's the problem with this post. He's saying that he town leaned Ygritte based on posts in the 130's but he was already town leaning her b4 these posts ever happened.

This is the context for the post where I said that:

What do you feel that ygritte has been doing thats not gimmick posting?

This is going to disappoint you but it's honestly just a vibe read.
I agree with you I should probably put her closer to null.

This is going to disappoint you but it's honestly just a vibe read.

I'm not and that's fine if that's how you feel.

but its not also what I asked.

I said she was doing nothing but gimmick/fluff posting. You disagreed and said she was doing "other things"

I want to know what "other thing" she was dong?

You weren't asking me "Why did you townread Ygritte in post 116?"
You were asking me to explain my current townread on Ygritte, at the point we were talking. That is what I was answering.

My read on Ygritte's earlier posts was an even more nebulous vibe read from RVS stuff, but I didn't think you cared about that. The fact I had positive vibes before the other thing that gave me more positive vibes is not a contradiction. It's just what happened.

that post as I think/feel Rubi has had a pretty positive view on ygritte most of the game.

I had a positive view of Ygritte up until you pressed me on it and I realized my read was mostly based on RVS vibes. You can read my ISO from that point on and it should be clear that I moved her down into my null/lurker read category.

This is what I mean by "mixed" since I did have positive vibes from the slot early on, even if they were for dumb reasons, and further consideration made me less confident.

[Rubicon]

Nope. Re-read what I just said.

[Rubicon]

I don't think Nero is the best lynch for today. We should keep lynching Firebringer.

[Rubicon]

I completed my travel action, which was to travel to a castle and definitely not stay in the capital city for another day, which would be really dumb.

[Rubicon]

You were asking me to explain my current townread on Ygritte,

I wasn't really asking that either. I asked you what she was doing besides fluff posting.

133 was kinda calling KMD scum but when she posted a list he was no longer a scum read.

137 is idk. TMI on Pork maybe?

idk what 139 is.

like you are claiming that you are answering a question that I actually didn't ask. I asked what "other things" she was doing and posting 3 of her posts and leaving things ambiguous doesn't really answer my question, IMO.

Okay but
You realize I answered the whole question exactly as written right? (1) this is why I townread her, (2) you were right there wasn’t much more than fluff so I adjusted my read.

What do you think of my current reason for calling her town?
Do you disagree? If so, how do you think those posts make sense from scum?

[Rubicon]

And please actually give it serious thought instead of just arguing for the sake of arguing.

[Rubicon]

also, if you think I'm scum why do you listen to me about ygritte?

Literally just read my freaking posts and you’ll be able to answer your own question.

[Rubicon]

I slept for 5 hours and woke up thinking Nero is probably town.

^ my read on Nero when he was asking me about Ygritte

Wow shocking that I would be willing to listen to a townread and reevaluate a read based on their input

[Rubicon]

This is the series of posts that

originally

gave me a positive vibe on Ygritte. She didn't give a fuck here, and I liked that.

that's what's throwing me off. B/c you are now saying that you FIRST read her off of RVS. So wouldn't your RVS read be the original one? IDK, its weird to me that if you believed that you were responding to a question about why you tow read ygritte you wouldn't lead with "I liked her RVS stuff

AND

..."

The events you’re talking about are separated by less than 12 hours.

[Rubicon]

bullshit. You scum read me first

FOR

scumreading Ygritte

THEN

I pressed you on it and

THEN

called me town.

I'd be down to lynch Firebringer (obvious scum with zero pro-town posts),

Nero Cain

(artificial / poorly reasoned reads),

I slept for 5 hours and woke up thinking Nero is probably town.

That seems like an accurate summary of events.

you are also back to scum reading me so....How does this fit with your ygritte read?

I think Ygritte might be town for the questions about her role, because it seems like a scum CO would benefit from being able to use Investigate Escape Routes secretly - and trying to coordinate her actions with town would make it harder to do that.

So I suppose if you are scum that would mean you successfully got me to second guess myself on a correct townread. However I’m currently doing a meta dive on you that Auro asked for so I’ll see what I think after that.

What do you think of those posts from Ygritte?

[Rubicon]

I need an updated VC to find out who the remaining scum are.

[Rubicon]

Pink Ball - your vote on my wagon be looking a little sketch.
Wanna explain yourself?

[Rubicon]

Well, you're the only unexplained vote on the wagon.

Nero has made his reason for voting me clear enough, even if I think it's dumb. The votes from Ygritte and Porkens seem to be reacting to his case, and both have previously implied they think I'm suspicious.

AFAICT your vote is just leftover from your initial reaction to my interaction with Auro and LQ before you started catching up? You haven't reacted to anything Nero or I have said on the last few pages, you're just sort of hanging on there, egging the wagon on...

[Rubicon]

I thought you had caught up now?

But yes, it seems a little weird to not be reacting to anything that's happening and just egging things on instead. I also responded to several of your posts and you just ignored everything..

[Rubicon]

OK.

It's a little irritating to have someone gleefully egging on a lynch wagon against me when they haven't even read my posts. Even if you're not caught up, you're presumably around enough to have an opinion about what Nero Cain is saying, if you're willing to go along with it so easily.

[Rubicon]

Anyway I'm going to go eat dinner and chill for a bit.

Firebringer still scum, recommend lynching.

If I die before tomorrow please press Pink Ball for more content.

[Rubicon]

Firebringer (4): Auro, votato, LicketyQuickety, Rubicon
Rubicon (4): Nero Cain, Ygritte, firebringer, porkens

Not Voting: Shireen Baratheon, Arya Stark, gobbledygook, pisskop, Pink Ball

(expired on 2020-06-27 10:00:00) to deadline

[Rubicon]

VOTE: rubicon

Good and great

do you scumread firebringer and me both equally

[Rubicon]

Long exhale out the nose.

Rubi, who’s your pick for scumteam and why?

I don’t scumread either of you particularly hard.

3 scum in {Firebringer, Pink Ball, Nero, votato, Arya}

[Rubicon]

I've explained my Firebringer, Pink Ball and Nero scumreads already.

votato & Arya are PoE

I townread everyone else

[Rubicon]

I didn’t misspeak.

[Rubicon]

Well I mean when you are town reading/leaning someone based off of RVS and you say that your

origina

l reasoning was not RVS then I'm just very confused.

This is the series of posts that

originally

gave me a positive vibe on Ygritte.

like this is just blatantly untrue b/c you are now saying that you town leaned her off of RVS. So wouldn't that be your original reasoning?


don't like auro sidelining himself from the discussion.

Nero you’re being a pedantic ass. Please stop.
It’s not a misspeak because I literally don’t remember posting that I townread Ygritte in 116 or having an opinion on the slot at that point. You asked me to explain my read on Ygritte and I responded with the first halfway concrete thoughts I had. If I had other thoughts on the slot they were not in my head or significant enough to be memorable other than vibes.

This is really the dumbest shit and I’m only responding to you because Auro said he believes it lol

[Rubicon]

What was that about

[Rubicon]

I thought I cared more than I did for a second.

Relatable

[Rubicon]

is this something you say to a scumread?

Not really no.
I feel like your push on me is genuine.

[Rubicon]

i find his tunneling townie.

but the fact he has decided to not respond to me when i directly confront him is too annoying for me to ignore. so if he is gonnaa both:
+ do an annoying tunnel on me.
+ not respond to me when i try to engage him.

i don't see value in defending him from a lynch when i think he is more detrimental to the town than me. i can forgive players who tunnel me. i am not putting up with players who both do a tunnel and pretend i don't exist while they do said tunnel.

Understandable but engaging with my scumreads isn’t really my thing.

I want you to engage with everyone else. Seeing you do some actual scumhunting and feeling like you cared about finding scum would make me townread you. Trying to talk to me because I’m tunneling you feels like you care more about my read on you.

[Rubicon]

For example, I actually have no idea who you would

want

to lynch today (other than me). That’s weird to me.

[Rubicon]

you can arrest firebringer

[Rubicon]

vote firebringer

[Rubicon]

sorta hate mafia games these days since most ppl do like shit all.

Nero lynch Firebringer with me today.

If he flips anything other than scum you can wagon the shit out of me.

[Rubicon]

There are bad birds and there ar eother burds.

I mean let’s be real that was the same day I posted this bit of wisdom. Even I don’t know what this means and I posted it.

[Rubicon]

sorta hate mafia games these days since most ppl do like shit all.

Sorry about that, but I have sort of been on a mental energy low for a while.

I just remembered we don't get that 2-day night phase where I could chill. Sigh.

Vote Rubicon and be a hero.

Spoiler:

Who are you voting again?

Remind me why you’re voting me?

[Rubicon]

Going to sleep now, won’t be around at deadline.

Non-voters should commit to something, this game has too many people sliding by.

We should be lynching Fire but if it’s me, here are my reads one last time:

3 scum in {Firebringer, Pink Ball,

Nero

, votato, Arya}

Update Nero to town.
Lynch the rest.

[Rubicon]

I reaffirm my townread on FB, first 20 pages checks out with what I've said before about him.

Can you be more specific

[Rubicon]

As summarized as possible:

I have told FB I have a towntell on him that if he doesn't do it during an ammount of time I estimate, then he's probably scum. That towntell is having fun. FB has fun as scum too, but with less freedom, so it feels awkward at times. As I said, FB knows that's the way I read him, so him going with the fun block with me inside, it's a direct message to me, telling me he's town, that I should trust him.

Given the context of this game, where I'm not involved and lurking, he wouldn't lose his time trying to get townread by me when I'm not a deciding factor;

scum FB would focus on other players rather than me, 'cause I don't have the wim to defend him. Instead, town!FB do this in an attempt to read me, not to defend himself: FB is scumhunting even at L-1. That's town. FB talking about my town meta, where I freak out when I'm wagoned, is proof that what he's doing right now is not survivalism, but rather creating new content that will help us to get a better read of the game even if he's lynched.

As I said, this is a towntell specifically to me, but if you throw the context he's involved right now, I think the way he's playing at L-1 should be enough to reconsider a vote on him.

Pretty sure Firebringer is just scum, Pink. The bolded sentence is bad logic. "I'm not involved and lurking" and "I'm not a deciding factor" is something that might seem obvious to you, but I thought you were catching up before dropping good content on us (that's what you were indicating before this post). FB probably did too, and if you have history together, he has every reason in the world to post things you would townread.

@Pink Ball, this one

[Rubicon]

@Rubi oh ok I remember that post but it wasn't a question that's were my confusion came.

I read that post of yours and you made me reevaluate and make me put special attention on FB. I have not concluded if you or me are right; he could be pocketing me, yes, but I think that his attitude towards his own wagon, and his attitude towards this game checks out as town for me. Same with Elena: her attitude towards this game in particular comes off as her town game rather than her scum game.

I need flips at this point. No lynch on D1 is getting into our heads

Agree with you about Elena (pisskop now), but not Firebringer.

I think Firebringer is the most useful flip at this point.

[Rubicon]

Firebringer (4): Auro, votato, LicketyQuickety, Rubicon
Rubicon (4): Nero Cain, Ygritte, firebringer, porkens

Not resolving this one way or another feels like a massive mistake, especially to lynch Shireen who hasn't posted in a week and is getting replaced.

[Rubicon]

As a matter of fact, I can fake it and fake it well. Read Tatsuya's Anime King Sized Upick for proof.

I kind of liked this as town?
It's small but there's a bit of pride there that doesn't really fit imo.

[Rubicon]

Unfortunately we don't get flips till D4.

[Rubicon]

dominate us

[Rubicon]

Firebringer does nothing all game and whenever he starts to think he might be lynched for real he switches into AtE mode.

Also I am working during the days.

U calling me lurker is horseshit

U know what fuck this.

I’m done.

VOTE: Auro

Don’t care what alignment u are.

^ see also ^

But ask him who he scumreads & wants to lynch instead and he goes silent.

[Rubicon]

i apologize for having emotions. Next time I will try to act like a robot.

Next time you’ll be town and your emotion will be channeled toward a different wincon that involves catching scum instead of whining and voting your townreads

[Rubicon]

I think Arya is voting me too.

[Rubicon]

Wagons explained:

Firebringer is scum but also a cool person and reasonably active (despite not having any reads or pushes on anyone) so people think he’s town.

Nero is tunneling me for using the word “originally” in a way he didn’t like. LQ thinks I shot KMD for arresting me D1 even though arresting me made him mechanically likely to be BP so if anything I’m cleared by it.

Davesaz wagon is probably scum driven to distract from Firebringer, considering his predecessor’s reaction to being meaty lynched d1 was pretty town.

In summary, the d1 NL fucked everything up and we just need to lynch someone to get something concrete to base actual reads on.

[Rubicon]

VOTE: votato

OK let's do this.

[Rubicon]

pisskop how much of the game have you read, out of curiosity? I know the mechanics are complicated but they're mostly irrelevant to reads at this point anyway and I'd like to know what you think about who's scum.

[Rubicon]

Fight it then

Do not go gentle into that good night

[Rubicon]

Lol wut

[Rubicon]

Arya wtf

Somebody please lynch FB at some point

I’ll guess I’ll go to my funeral now

[Rubicon]

Firebringer / Pink Ball / votato / Arya

Reactions to the fake hammer would be interesting to look at, though

[Rubicon]

It kind of seems like pisskop was already aware? Hmm.

hmmm

[Rubicon]

You know what I mean.

[Rubicon]

Remember to make two COs check the flips.

[Rubicon]

GG! Nice work town and big thanks to SS for stepping in to moderate.

I think this setup has some good concepts, but would need some adjustments before I'd be willing to play it again. In particular I'd probably nerf the 'kill everyone' strategy and give town more reliable investigative power.

Also, the way the ruleset is written leaves a lot of things ambiguous. That led to unnecessary confusion, with the mod having to rule on how things work throughout the game. I think that the more complex and unusual a setup is, the more clearly the rules need to be written in order to make it fun to play.

(WitchHunt is a classic example of doing this right. The setup is no-flip like this one, with even more abilities, but every role and every possible power interaction is explained clearly in the ruleset.)