Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[the worst]

not that guy!! he's the worst ugh

[the worst]

Umlaut is aligned with the

Town

.

Fredrick A Campbell is aligned with the

Town

.

Eevee is aligned with the

Town

.

Snowblaze is aligned with the

Town

.

Titus is aligned with the

Town

.

Day 2 begins.

Rce/a50/ydra/Raya PoE right?

[the worst]

tricks? uhhhh I'll try my best uh
I have some gum if that helps?

[the worst]

talk to me about menalque - our scumflip is offwagon, and the wagon was reasonably well padded with ICs
who struck you as opportunistic around it? who felt EMPOWERED AND RIGHTEOUS about menalque being scum?
do you think you were deceived, or do you think town danced off a cliff? noting that SS was probably not the immediate deceiver
what do you think about SS choosing to escape rather than ~whoever his buddy is~

[the worst]

Votecount 1.Final

Maemuki

.............

(7):

Eevee

(622), Raya36 (634),

Snowblaze

(646), Ydrasse (658),

Something_Smart

(839),

Titus

(882),

Umlaut

(903)

Snowblaze

...........

(6):

RCEnigma (672),

Montosh

(785), Almost50 (814),

Fredrick A Campbell

(824),

Menalque

(852),

Maemuki

(878)

Not Voting

..........

(0):

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Maemuki has been lynched.

i would normally assert that bussing is counter-intuitive in this setup, but also kinda have to acknowledge that at a minimum, SS bussed.
so is the second busser in this situatio raya or ydrasse? given they're crossvoting now i can't help but wonder if one of them has been keeping the other alive/unconfirmed to set them up for this ~~
or is mohab/maemuki staying off their cw for so long to distance from rce or a50?

it's like a big technicolour jigsaw puzzle. i'm excited!

[the worst]

I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.

I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.

it shows something very different actually! we have different thought processes, and i have freshly replaced into the game.
i'd value your input quite highly, since we're just as likely to come up with different answers, as we are to come up with different questions.

[the worst]

@ydra
assume i'm tired & fairly hung over and not really prepared to deepdive your walls of analysis above
can you give me a couple of sentences on why any of that actually makes the other person likely to be mafia aligned with SS?

@raya
i'll probably ask you to do roughly the same

[the worst]

The good news is: I am home
The bad news is: I am beat and really need to sleep

I'll probably read back tomorrow, but right now I will do this:

VOTE: S_S

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't. The 3 unconfirmed on Mae's wagon were Raya, Ydrasse & S_S. I think the scum of them likely fence-sat yesterday, in an attempt not to be caught on a miselimination. "I was on the scum wagon but not on the Town wagon" is a good defence from scum PoV. S_S is the one that fits the profile. Ydrasse & RTaya were both on me, and I was this close to being eliminated myself. If that had happened they'd have looked bad (almost as bad as Menalque does for many), so I conclude S_S is the one scum ON the Mae wagon, but I really can't decide whether the 2nd scum was also on the Mae wagon (Ydrasse) or the Snow wagon (Menalque). (My problem is Menalque has been promoting himself as a GOOD scum player, and I did witness his Scum game once and he was indeed good, so I am not sure if this is his bad town play or his attempt on being too scummy to be scum.)

Aside from that, S_S is play is reminding me of his play in the previous game (with me and Menalque) when he was Scum. He looks disengaged and rarely intervenes. He refused to bus in that game though, and that's what kept him off the bottom of my readlist here, but the thing is I can't see Raya+Ydrasse as a team that double bus'd and then decided to powerpush me on D2 too. In fract, I don't think this is Raya's scum game at all, so it's either S_S or Ydrasse (or both). Oh, and the reason I firmly believe at least one scum bus'd is the fact I know I'm Town and the confidence I have in my TR on RCE.

Disclaimer: Sleep on this for 24 hours if you will. I don't even know if what I've just typed reflects my thoughts accurately or not, because I am

falling asleep already

. Please do ask me for elaboration on whatever you think doesn't make sense or is unclear to you and I will respond when I come back next (in less than 12-16 hours ideally, but give it up to 24 hours at max)

Daily reminder that S_S is scum with ydrasse or Menalque and should be the elimination here.

What if I fakeclaimed a guilty on S_S? Would that help?? Hmmm.. guess not.

OK, I'll come clean. I'm a Jailkeeper, and I jailkept S_S twice. This is why scum have not been able to kill yet. (Yeah, THAT'll work)

But seriously, I dunno why everybody's being considered BUT S_S. I want someone to enlighten me, cuz he feels so much like he was in the previous game (with the exception of the bus vote as I said earlier)

How moved was everyone by A50 correctly scumcasing SS?
did he have enough clout that this was unlikely to be a bus?

[the worst]

Titus was pushing for an Ydra elim before being shot for what it's worth
soul tells me it's just one of raya/ydra

[the worst]

A50 why aren't you voting yet

[the worst]

- there was some s_s/raya mutual ~scumreading going on between them and i don't think that it's genuine. there wasn't a lot of push from either of them, fmpov, to get a true wagon going. this is moreso true for s_s who had some point was like "raya won't be voted out, no one is interested in voting raya" despite there being a few sentiments where people were questioning why raya was being townread as thoroughly as she was. neither of them made a very strong effort to go for each other.

first impression here is that it's very realistic for townies to nullread each other as well. it's doubly realistic for a townie to nullread a scum player who plays as .... delicately? carefully? as ss does. at what point did it strike you that Raya was interacting with a scumbuddy in the interactions which you've referenced?

I also think misreading the way the plist is treating a player is more likely a sign of Raya and ss not being aligned aorn? usually in anti bus gamestates, a scumread on your partner feels disproportionately heavy. the clawback ss & his partner had to do from losing their first member wasn't a small task. I'd have actually expected his perspective on how people were reading his partner to be more bleak than negligent (or just sassily blatantly incorrect)? Maybe that's just me. :p

[the worst]

I don't think I can really address the rest before I do a decent read. Your assumption that I'm tired and hung over was absolutely correct, so I'm not in the right head space right now. But I'll get back to you well before deadline.

[the worst]

talk to me about menalque - our scumflip is offwagon, and the wagon was reasonably well padded with ICs
who struck you as opportunistic around it? who felt EMPOWERED AND RIGHTEOUS about menalque being scum?
do you think you were deceived, or do you think town danced off a cliff? noting that SS was probably not the immediate deceiver
what do you think about SS choosing to escape rather than ~whoever his buddy is~

Err... the Menalque lynch may or may not have been forced through by me...

Anyway, welcome the worst! I'll read Soon.

~Eva

you villain!!!!
just kidding - it happens!
who if anyone resisted it with integrity? do you feel like there was anyone who felt like, unexpectedly keen to eliminate menalque?

[the worst]

ydra can you talk to me about why you have RCE & A50 cleared?
it would mean more coming from you than eevee. sorry.

[the worst]

that wasn't critical of you btw eevee
more like, it's another perspective and it's coming from an uncleared mindset which is a big comfort add.

[the worst]

wagonomics tell me rce should be a huge red flag. lol. he's also overwhelmingly competent. i could really use a peace of mind injection :p

[the worst]

oh god that's adorable

[the worst]

cool, thanks. how about a50?

[the worst]

nuh uuuh

[the worst]

The Titus kill also puts the spotlight on you, but kind of unnecessarily so that it feels like a statement (if that makes sense) and I don't know who else wants to make a statement apart from you.

This really resonates with me. I was thinking something similar (but less eloquent). the Titus kill makes a lot of sense as a deadpan kill from Ydra and a small amount of sense as a wifom kill from Raya given the way she opened the day but I'm really not sure that's a kill from a50 or rce.

[the worst]

:>
I like u rce

[the worst]

I have some gum

Liar. Duck don't have teeth, so they don't have gums.

Hey if you zoom in real close on duck bills there's like these little bumps that look like teeth. That's basically the same thing right?

[the worst]

Thanks Raya. I'd still appreciate a couple of quick sentences or paragraphs on why Ydra is certainly scum fypov. I'll do my big readup soon so I'd appreciate some general things to consider if that's ok with you

[the worst]

what if i told you i'm like 90% sure it's a50 and he's bamboozling you

[the worst]

I'm not being serious. I kinda think it's Raya :s

[the worst]

life Lifeing is a whole mood. be safe.

[the worst]

I find it interesting how Holden places an omgus vote on Votato. Then when two votes are placed (one for Holden, one for Votato) he engages with the player who voted for Votato

This is a pretty astute observation but it's between two townies and lacks a vote which makes me so angrey

[the worst]

I'm not being serious. I kinda think it's Raya :s

I promise it's not me

Gonna need you to upgrade this to a pinkie promise, please.


....I failed to actually do reading tonight.
Soon!

[the worst]

The more I read the more I don't feel all that great about anyone

A50 is probably town; if he isn't then the fauxbus on SS was probably game winning. I think this is the kind of plist he can beat as scum but he reads reasonably sincere and I do kinda agree that SS may have actually been a contender that phase. I don't think A50 is ever the type to be like "SHEEP ME FOOLS" unless blatantly contradicted which I don't feel like he was.

RCE is not outside scumrange which is Stressful but whatever I'm outsourcing this read to the fact everyone who actually interacted with him townreads him

I think Raya has had more glimmers of towniness than Ydrasse. I think Ydrasse feels like she really needs Raya eliminated more than Raya feels like she desires for Ydrasse to be eliminated

I suppose in a manner of speaking, town who get an elim through have a chance of winning; scum who get an elim through instantly win

idk
maybe this is nonsense?
VOTE: Ydra sry if I'm wrong

[the worst]

VC

At a vca level raya and Ydra are like. hauntingly equal slots. it would not surprise me whatsoever if scum considered vca manipulation with their kills, but it would surprise me very much if A50 made the decision to set up a final day Raya/Ydra dichotomy then lurk out in the hopes they killed each other. he was probably setting up Ydra realistically which he hasn't really capitalised on. idk maybe scum!a50 feels comfortable enough, lol. if so rip

[the worst]

watermelon

so she can eat while she flees the ship, and

and the knife.

to kill any townies she bumps into on the way

gottem

[the worst]

more or less claiming we are the same alignment only UNTIL the mafia gave her a way to recant it

the thing with this section of the argument is I don't feel like that's a way many scumbuddies actually interact, to be entirely honest.

trying to establish Raya as the deepwolf but then stopping halfway to help Raya establish you as a miselim shortly before KNOWING he was about to flip scum would be like....an insanely baller move on SS' part

SS is good at scum for sure but I think he has too much respect for our sanity to do that

[the worst]

i think it’s unfair to say that me feeling like i have to eliminate raya is a scumpoint and it isn’t the same in reverse. like... yeah? everyone here has basically made up their minds i feel like and i’m working against the tide of everyone. no one can say raya needs to feel like she has to get me out today because 1) she’s been allowed this entire game to go under the radar it feels like and everyone’s kind of given her a townread for most of the game and 2) she isn’t in a position where she’s the person who is gonna get voted out currently so she doesn’t have any reason to push harder until that pressure’s on her.

I mean I would disagree from my point of view. There's a much stronger case on me than there is on you I think. I just happen to know that case on me is wrong

this is low-key how I feel
the case against Raya scores more points as far as like, things which could be considered scummy at some level, but it also doesn't /feel/ right

[the worst]

someone w Raya meta please reassure me that her calm and very pleasant tonality is just a feature of her playstyle as either alignment

I know I'm right I just want someone who likes meta to reassure me
I can taste that Ydra is vexed but I don't think the reason for the vexation is really ai

[the worst]

basically ya I'm not sure why a lot of these conversations are still happening

[the worst]

yeah, if I had to find a way to compare this to my understanding of your meta I'd call it exactly on brand. you're like, earnest and seem to enjoy the game. but you're very likeable and don't seem to take it too seriously.

so it's probably not AI here; I'm just tending back towards the other stuff I'm seeing

[the worst]

i don’t know who it is if not raya. that’s all i’ve got to offer and if i’m gonna get elimmed at this point then so be it i guess

I'm probably confbiasing atp so outsourcing:
anyone else find Ydra giving up here kinda scummy?

[the worst]

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

\o\ mood /o/

[the worst]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

[the worst]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

Did you mean 2159?

Both.

[the worst]

This question is a bit leading TW but how likely do you think it is that SS redirects scum agenda upon replacing in?

For the hypothetical say wagons are forming on town but scum aren't interacting with the wagons. Just in general how do you think SS approaches his new scum partners OOT?

Maybe? Sure. Idk.
This is a quick game; he knows that nobody needs to endgame in the traditional sense. We never, ever play to like f3 for example.

All he knows is that his partner and he need to escape within two phases. I think he knows that he's on thin ice with a50 having shaded him without having a read and potentially needing to 1v1 him to win the game (1v1ing a50 is just an absurdly chaotic experience). Scum shoot Titus who was both suspecting Ydra, and is also a vca wizard. It's like evidenced that scum smelled Mohab's peril in the wind and decided to bus. I think it's very likely there was some distancing/softbussing y'day as well - like being "not associated enough for us to be linked literally tomorrow" is the wincon for scum interactions.

Which is a big part of why I was a bit anxious in townreading A50. But idk. I don't think SS' "he sure is a player" or whatever is particularly partnery. I think A50 is capable of having pushed more nonsense through as scum. I don't think he..... fits?

Raya could be it but it just feels like, anticlimactic. She feels like the player who is normally eliminated in scenarios like this not the player who is aligned with flipped scum. If we had a couple of phases left I think she'd be a great contender but we have one bullet, so I think we need to get a bit more creative.

I'm actually probably more suspicious of you than Raya than A50 atp - it's also kinda PoE-ey but like. the more I think about it Ydra also fits my impression of the way scum in her shoes should be performing in this game.

Like all they need is for people to panic long enough not to kill them
Or to panic and kill someone else
so flinging everything she has at Raya and praying is like exact wincon
I think town in her shoes is probably more inclined to get paranoid of A50 or revisit her read on you
It just feels...maybe constructed?...definitely convenient

:shrug: I think it's just her

[the worst]

Sorry I didn't really answer your question directly. I think there was probably a double bus on Mohab/Maemuki. SS definitely bussed that slot. I think it stands to reason that he distanced/softbussed the other.

Bearing in mind my stance on the immediacy of the scum wincon and the facts SS both already has bussed, and is like overwhelmingly sensible?

yeah sure. I think he redirects the scum agenda on rep in if he's not comfortable with the direction it's headed in.

[the worst]

It's probably more of a growing discomfort at the idea of eliminating Raya than a scumread on you. if that makes any sense. it might just be my mood too.

[the worst]

His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.

This is definitely astute.
I think the reverse is true for his comment about SS/Ydra being ridiculous in a way? Unless the last scum is A50 he's intentionally left little breadcrumbs or red herrings to his partner & the set miselim. I have this wonky feeling we're meant to be reading into his decision to leave before his partner but I also don't really feel inclined to do that

[the worst]

I haven't really seen Raya as townie as everyone else seems to. The only thing that makes me think hmm town is probably more likely to do this is when Raya defaulted her vote back to Frederick after agreeing he likely towntold. It's offbeat enough to be town just blanking on what's going on.

I guess I could crunch through someone's iso and talk thru what strikes me as towny or not towny until I talk myself into it or out of it if you want? I definitely remember her trajectory fail on Frederick and like yeah it didn't strike me as agenda-fulfilling. it felt kinda clumsy & like maybe a real thought

[the worst]

I suppose I'd expect scum who were pushing someone who then towntold to be fairly wary of the towntell

whereas I can absolutely buy being unsure about how to read Freddie in the heat of the moment. I don't think he's the type of player to like exert oppressive levels of sheer obvtown energy. When I've read games with him previously I've generally found him kinda nullish until a certain Cerebral Moment

Or maybe Raya jumping back to Frederick was just uncertainty and opportunism or like trying to avoid the scum wagon actually going through

Who knows ~~

friendly reminder scum made the decision to clear Fred (even tho he was p unlikely aligned with Mohab but whatever) - do we think Raya allows that kind of loose end in her iso as endgame wolf?

[the worst]

Votecount 2.Final

Montosh

.............

(7):

Menalque (1626), Titus (1628), Fredrick A Campbell (1629), Almost50 (1631), Snowblaze (1632), Eevee (1669), Umlaut (1670)

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (1573), Raya36 (1620), Montosh (1633)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

RCEnigma (1653)

Not Voting

..........

(0):

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Montosh has been lynched.

I'm so mad.

[the worst]

Asking why he escaped is the kind of wifom I don't really want to get into. It's just as useful as asking why his partner didn't without knowing his partner.

sure. but every piece of info they've made public has happened via scum agency. their decisions are the most pertinent alignment indicative factors in the game. so I don't think we should go down that particular rabbit hole but I think we should be wary.

[the worst]

soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50

[the worst]

This is a philosophical discussion for another day I think- we're both right and both wrong, just important that we don't get bogged down with possibilities. The answer has to like make sense with the reality we live in, but it's pretty improbable that we'll divine the answer based on mech decisions and all that

[the worst]

soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50

Make A50 call me scum and I'll scum case him.

hey rce I heard a certain monkey thinks you're scum

[the worst]

hello I now think A50 is more likely than rce and I don't know where Raya fits in that

pedit: basically exactly that too ya ;-;

[the worst]

I mean I think we've all been aware of the fact scum 100% win if they aren't elim'd vs. town whatever% win if they're not elim'd but beyond that, like

if that's the case I'm not sure why you aren't reconsidering slots other than Raya?

[the worst]

I'm like transparently willing to talk about scum A50 or scum rce. I don't feel like anyone has engaged me or tried to engage me on this. might be like biasing because I think I'm great tho

[the worst]

i guess if you think it's a scum mindset i can't really... change that.

this is literally what you do to win the game...

[the worst]

`-`
I feel like my vote makes me a good townie but a bad person
help

[the worst]

I appreciate that but fmpov focusing on that is like, the least useful thing possible for me

I think maybe if I was less grumpy and jaded I'd find it easier to revisit my bias but in this case I'm like, actively aware I'm biased but also don't really see a reason to fix that bias...?

[the worst]

VOTE: y...dra.......sse?

[the worst]

VOTE: A50
don't @ me

[the worst]

yeah ditto
VOTE: Ydra

sorry which responses do you want my input on? I'm a bit sluggish this morn

[the worst]

I'm kinda fine with rce
I don't really know that I agree with Menalque and it was pretty hard to follow him this game (hey he'll be back to laugh at us postgame if it is rce)

I haven't played with him in like a long ass minute. I don't think he's as obvtown as everyone is saying he is but I do think he's fairly towny. Rce is very competent.

The less I like Raya as the elim the more I'm like
Ydra > RCE > Raya > A50
tho

[the worst]

When I did my initial lazy vca I thought Raya was p high scum equity but I don't think she's posting like scum

[the worst]

2240 is so underdeveloped it makes me Anxious but I don't know if scum!rce doesn't just take the Ydra elim for the win

[the worst]

wait you didn't invite me?!
that's ok. I'll try and do some more legwork later.

[the worst]

I'll raise you
VOTE: RCE

[the worst]

That's more of a placeholder so Ydra isn't near-elim'd! I'd still rather vote her for the kill aorn

[the worst]

Ydra Raya a50 rce

[the worst]

I'll feel pretty dumb if Raya is scum.

[the worst]

I wonder if this is one of those games where menalque calls the scum team then charisma-faceplants and gets miselim'd for his troubles

[the worst]

Also ya rce is a very easy SS partner and is not particularly towny

[the worst]

SS is capable of like whimsically noninteracting with either alignment as scum

[the worst]

I know SS' playstyle! He Comes As He Wishes, getting a quality interaction with him is a combo of either trying and/or being lucky and I absolutely don't think you're the type of person who would heavily go out of his way to try and force it. No need to prove anything.

[the worst]

I killed Titus.

[the worst]

Fr though I think Titus was the least predictable factor in this equation

[the worst]

Just under 3 days. A50 is just town or he won two weeks ago. Raya feels wrong. RCE only kinda feels right. I feel bad for wanting to murder Ydra more than I feel wrong for murdering Ydra so

VOTE: Ydrasse
if I'm right u played a good xylo for sure

[the worst]

VOTE: RCE to show I'm down!

[the worst]

I'm not sheeping you! I'm projecting more confidence than I really feel, I'd be fine getting more votes on either of them allowing it's 3 days til deadline

[the worst]

pedit: Oh good! You agree it's about a 50/50 coinflip between RCE/Ydrasse right now though, right?

yeah!

[the worst]

I guess my last issue is whether you and I have both talked ourselves into townreading Raya incorrectly

live footage of me at endgame.

Spoiler:

<3

[the worst]

Ydrasse is still obvscum.

this was definitely a factor in the nk lol
technically better to just shoot titus if ydra is scum because titus can be very literal with her reads
also probably smart to shoot titus anyway because this is a wifomy last will & testament and titus can be unpredictable depending on flips

who knows~~

[the worst]

I'm kinda believing Ydrasse but I'm scared I'm just falling for their scum lies

~~ same ~~

[the worst]

one more question:

who is scum?
[A] Ydrasse

Ydrasse

RCE
[D] Ydrasse

please pick one answer.

[the worst]

i'm sorry i don't understand; could you please select one of the multiple choice options?

[the worst]

oof right in the feels

[the worst]

on one hand i kinda just want to eliminate rce
on the other hand, ydrasse hurt my feelings

decisions decisions...

[the worst]

whaaat how

[the worst]

LIBEL!!!!

[the worst]

She saw through my ruse, dear monkey. We are doomed.

[the worst]

VOTE: RCE awesome

[the worst]

what if nsg is a troll mod and eevee is scum?
hhhhmmmmmmm

[the worst]

does this face look trustworthy to everyone?

[the worst]

do you feel unfairly caught or what?

[the worst]

i'm too lazy to case anything : (
if i'm wrong on you i like to think i'm fairly open minded? i've changed my mind on who i think is scum here like 147 times and there's only 4 options

if you're town tho your wincon is fidning the scums, not voting a conftown - now is probably the time to show us we're wrong?

[the worst]

why are you defending yourself rather than hunting scum when you're (self-stated) bad at defending yourself and (in my experience) good at murdering scum?

[the worst]

He gave up when he voted eevee too tho
idk I'm fine here
I'll follow my whims if they change

[the worst]

VOTE: Ydrasse
back to the plan

[the worst]

given nobody is really townreading RCE except A50 atp
and there's a massive benefit to policy elimming giving up/AtE
do we just do it

[the worst]

hmm fair
if it's RCE and he wins this way i'll actually be upset

i think i have enough respect for RCE's game that i'm kinda fine just killing ydrasse and hoping i'm reading her attitude in this phase correctly

[the worst]

obviously the fact my brain still hurts probably correctly indicates i have a lot of respect for ydrasse too

[the worst]

Is anyone going to join me on Almost50?

probably not tbh
i had my moment but i've been talked down from it and a50 didn't seem to give a stuff what i thought so i'm not really sure how to advance it. it would also be a {tw, fac} vanity wagon.

on the balance of probabilities his associatives with SS are just, less likely to come from a scumbuddy than RCE's or ydra

i'll also be laughing my ass off in endgame if A50 is actually scum tho and i think you can join me in the "we told you so" parade. :p

[the worst]

if ppl think there is a trust tell can it please be reported & us move on to the next thing
unless i'm being like, negligent and there's something straight up clearing i think this exchange is just self meta vs. self meta....?

[the worst]

what are the rest of your reads like - do you agree raya is liekly town?

[the worst]

we have 34 hours left. that's enough time to flashelim a50!

[the worst]

look within yourself: do you think a50 thinks he was going to get that elim through before SS escaped?
if yes: he's town
if no: his partner equity is thru the roof

fyi on readthrough i sincerely did not think he thought he would get the elim but i'm lowkey kinda reserving to people who actually had a vibe for that end of phase

[the worst]

a50 also played this as scum. which was a closed setup in uuuhhh, the same family as this setup (they're both influenced by an older setup but i think anuket topaz is very consciously/intentionally an improvement on the concept; i digress)

what does this tell me?
not much because i can't really be bothered working out a50's core meta tells
BUT!!! it does tell us that he has a taste for what scum need to do to survive

x

amount of time
if he's scum in this setup he's trying to survive this phase. he was trying to get his partner to survive the previous phase. i think he probably would have preferred not bussing d1, but i'm not sure i have a strong enough impression.

[the worst]

Votecount 1.6

Mohab500

.....

(3):

Eevee (71), Craig Pelton (73), Umlaut (88)

Craig Pelton

.

(3):

Fredrick A Campbell (70),

Homura

(109), HoldenGolden (129)

HoldenGolden

.

(1):

Raya36 (21)

Homura

.......

(1):

Ydrasse (10)

Not Voting

...

(5):

Sujimichi, Snowblaze, Chemist1422, Mohab500 (51), RCEnigma (89)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.7

Menalque

.....

(3):

Homura

(109), HoldenGolden (129), Ydrasse (182)

Mohab500

.....

(2):

Eevee (71), Umlaut (88)

HoldenGolden

.

(1):

Raya36 (21)

Snowblaze

....

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (181)

Ydrasse

......

(1):

Menalque (208)

Not Voting

...

(5):

Sujimichi, Snowblaze, Chemist1422, Mohab500 (51), RCEnigma (89)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.8

Mohab500

.....

(4):

Eevee (71), Umlaut (88), RCEnigma (238), Fredrick A Campbell (247)

Menalque

.....

(2):

HoldenGolden (129), Ydrasse (182)

HoldenGolden

.

(1):

Raya36 (21)

Ydrasse

......

(1):

Menalque (208)

Not Voting

...

(5):

Sujimichi, Snowblaze, Chemist1422, Mohab500 (51),

Homura

(235)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.12

Mohab500

............

(2):

Umlaut (88), RCEnigma (238)

Menalque

............

(2):

HoldenGolden (129), Ydrasse (182)

RCEnigma

............

(2):

Eevee (292), Menalque (296)

HoldenGolden

........

(1):

Raya36 (21)

Chemist1422

.........

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (345)

Not Voting

..........

(5):

Sujimichi, Chemist1422, Mohab500 (51),

Homura

(235), Snowblaze (330)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Almost50

replaces

Homura

.

Votecount 1.17

Snowblaze

...........

(5):

HoldenGolden (511), Fredrick A Campbell (522), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552),

Almost50

(570)

RCEnigma

............

(3):

Snowblaze (415), Mohab500 (502), Eevee (547)

Raya36

..............

(1):

RCEnigma (497)

HoldenGolden

........

(1):

Raya36 (495)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422, Umlaut (521)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.18

Snowblaze

...........

(6):

HoldenGolden (511), Fredrick A Campbell (522), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552),

Almost50

(570), RCEnigma (599)

RCEnigma

............

(3):

Snowblaze (415), Mohab500 (502), Eevee (547)

HoldenGolden

........

(1):

Raya36 (495)

Mohab500

............

(1):

Umlaut (596)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.19

Snowblaze

...........

(4):

HoldenGolden (511), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552),

Almost50

(570)

Mohab500

............

(3):

Umlaut (596), Fredrick A Campbell (608), Eevee (622)

RCEnigma

............

(2):

Snowblaze (415), Mohab500 (502)

HoldenGolden

........

(1):

Raya36 (495)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422, RCEnigma (612)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

Votecount 1.20

Mohab500

............

(5):

Umlaut (596), Fredrick A Campbell (608), Eevee (622), Raya36 (634), Snowblaze (646)

Snowblaze

...........

(4):

HoldenGolden (511), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552),

Almost50

(570)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Mohab500 (502)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422, RCEnigma (612)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

which is what homura then a50 did.
i can see homura's voting patterns d1 being pretty guilty-minded; i think a50's are consistent with a scum agenda but i don't really have a read on his d1.

[the worst]

A50 d2 lazyparks ydrasse then swaps to montosh at the last moment; what was his trajectory on either of the slots like fypov? this is either opportunistically minded or he reached the conclusion he's currently reached wrt ydrasse quite a while ago

Spoiler: i wonder if titus is high fiving in my direction in the dead chat?

Votecount 2.3

Almost50

............

(4):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081), Titus (1090)

Menalque

............

(3):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102),

Almost50

(1104)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Menalque (1114), Fredrick A Campbell (1117)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.4

Almost50

............

(4):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081), Titus (1090)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Menalque (1114), Fredrick A Campbell (1117)

Ydrasse

.............

(1):

Almost50

(1156)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.5

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081)

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Fredrick A Campbell (1203)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Menalque (1114)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.6

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (1267)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Menalque (1284)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Eevee (1299)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Something_Smart, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.7

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Almost50

............

(2):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080)

RCEnigma

............

(2):

Eevee (1327), Raya36 (1328)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (1345)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Something_Smart, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.8

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Montosh

.............

(2):

Umlaut (1382), Fredrick A Campbell (1384)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Raya36 (1408), Ydrasse (1413)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Snowblaze, Eevee (1396)

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.9

Menalque

............

(5):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102), Eevee (1430), Fredrick A Campbell (1432), Ydrasse (1438)

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Raya36 (1408)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Umlaut (1382)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Something_Smart, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.10

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360)

Menalque

............

(3):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102), Ydrasse (1438)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Raya36 (1408), Fredrick A Campbell (1478)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Umlaut (1382)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Snowblaze, Eevee (1491)

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.11

Ydrasse

.............

(4):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360), Eevee (1548)

Menalque

............

(3):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102), Ydrasse (1438)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (1478)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Umlaut (1382)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Snowblaze, Raya36 (1549)

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.12

Ydrasse

.............

(5):

Almost50

(1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360), Eevee (1548), Umlaut (1565)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (1478)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Almost50

............

(1):

Ydrasse (1573)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Snowblaze, Raya36 (1549)

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

Votecount 2.Final

Montosh

.............

(7):

Menalque (1626), Titus (1628), Fredrick A Campbell (1629),

Almost50

(1631), Snowblaze (1632), Eevee (1669), Umlaut (1670)

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (1573), Raya36 (1620), Montosh (1633)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

RCEnigma (1653)

Not Voting

..........

(0):

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Montosh has been lynched.

[the worst]

literally my only reservation is that SS didn't give a fuck about a50's case on him; but then again SS isn't like.....a super huge fan of theatre? especially when forcing the dialogue might accidentally bring them into the spotlight

Spoiler:

Votecount 3.1

Menalque

............

(3):

RCEnigma (1679), Ydrasse (1683), Raya36 (1685)

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Titus (1688), Menalque (1715)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Snowblaze (1692)

Not Voting

..........

(5):

Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Almost50, Eevee (1687)

With 11 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-11 20:41:59).

The good news is: I am home
The bad news is: I am beat and really need to sleep

I'll probably read back tomorrow, but right now I will do this:

VOTE: S_S

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't. The 3 unconfirmed on Mae's wagon were Raya, Ydrasse & S_S. I think the scum of them likely fence-sat yesterday, in an attempt not to be caught on a miselimination. "I was on the scum wagon but not on the Town wagon" is a good defence from scum PoV. S_S is the one that fits the profile. Ydrasse & RTaya were both on me, and I was this close to being eliminated myself. If that had happened they'd have looked bad (almost as bad as Menalque does for many), so I conclude S_S is the one scum ON the Mae wagon, but I really can't decide whether the 2nd scum was also on the Mae wagon (Ydrasse) or the Snow wagon (Menalque). (My problem is Menalque has been promoting himself as a GOOD scum player, and I did witness his Scum game once and he was indeed good, so I am not sure if this is his bad town play or his attempt on being too scummy to be scum.)

Aside from that, S_S is play is reminding me of his play in the previous game (with me and Menalque) when he was Scum. He looks disengaged and rarely intervenes. He refused to bus in that game though, and that's what kept him off the bottom of my readlist here, but the thing is I can't see Raya+Ydrasse as a team that double bus'd and then decided to powerpush me on D2 too. In fract, I don't think this is Raya's scum game at all, so it's either S_S or Ydrasse (or both). Oh, and the reason I firmly believe at least one scum bus'd is the fact I know I'm Town and the confidence I have in my TR on RCE.

Disclaimer: Sleep on this for 24 hours if you will. I don't even know if what I've just typed reflects my thoughts accurately or not, because I am

falling asleep already

. Please do ask me for elaboration on whatever you think doesn't make sense or is unclear to you and I will respond when I come back next (in less than 12-16 hours ideally, but give it up to 24 hours at max)

Like how often does a mislynching wagon have all town on it?

Way more often than a lot of people think.

Votecount 3.2

Menalque

............

(3):

RCEnigma (1679), Ydrasse (1683), Raya36 (1685)

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Titus (1688), Menalque (1715)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Snowblaze (1692), Almost50 (1745)

Not Voting

..........

(4):

Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Eevee (1687)

With 11 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-11 20:41:59).

Nothing new here. It's still the same story of "It's A50/Menalque.. no it isn't,, yes it is.. let's eliminate A50.. mo let's do Menalque."

Let me tell you that I'm confident both scum are being wagoned as we speak. I am just voting the one I'm more confident in, and since the game uses plurality; I don't think I'll be switching my vote in the foreseen future.

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[the worst]

soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50

*wistful sigh~*

if we want to take a very literal read i ///think/// titus would vote a50 today and is a very good a50 nk.

[the worst]

VOTE: 49

[the worst]

oh he's l-1

[the worst]

i wonder if ydrasse is just scum. lol.

[the worst]

oh it's not, i was wondering if ydra would lolhammer

[the worst]

I could do A50. (I could have done A50 day 2, remind me why we didn't do it then?)

Something shinier happened, it kinda looked like the moon

[the worst]

Unfortunately all the reasons for scumreading A50 are also reasons to townread him. I'm pulling from at least year old meta here but scum!50 is more likely to me to have xyz reasons so and so is scum over him. Especially since his position all game hasn't been the most comfortable.

I don't think scum!50 in this situation has literally any reason to play hard and insist XYZ is scum over him for ABC reasons - from his perspective he would have already won going into d4

do you think that's an unfair pov? lmk if so we still have time to kill you. uh. I mean Ydrasse?

[the worst]

clear

[the worst]

Ydra: existential awareness of the gamestate and open-mindedness towards ideas which she's previously appeared unwilling to consider but all new thoughts have believable trajectory

Raya: doesn't seem aligned with flipped scum; mindset today presents as consistently solvey and consistent with town meta; frustration at ydra's case is not only Believable but Relatable

RCE: thought processes may actually be too ludicruous to be scum; self meta which people are misinterpreting as a trust tell I think which I'm going to ignore; A50 townreads him and will cut his own nose off to back this up

A50: rce is town and Ydra is scum. I will not be reconsidering this or attempting to engage with any of the solving dialogues today. Not only this but your solving dialogues make me laugh and/or cry and if you eliminate me you are game throwing. GAMETHROWING!!!

we gottem pals

[the worst]

I didn't mention A50 ignoring my case but w/e I think if we're both town he laughs at me and vomits out 80 reasons why my reasoning is fallacious, approximately 7/80 of which are true but all of which are hilarious

[the worst]

also probably a men at work music video

[the worst]

Ydra: existential awareness of the gamestate and open-mindedness towards ideas which she's previously appeared unwilling to consider but all new thoughts have believable trajectory

Raya: doesn't seem aligned with flipped scum; mindset today presents as consistently solvey and consistent with town meta; frustration at ydra's case is not only Believable but Relatable

RCE: thought processes may actually be too ludicruous to be scum; self meta which people are misinterpreting as a trust tell I think which I'm going to ignore; A50 townreads him and will cut his own nose off to back this up

A50: rce is town and Ydra is scum. I will not be reconsidering this or attempting to engage with any of the solving dialogues today. Not only this but your solving dialogues make me laugh and/or cry and if you eliminate me you are game throwing. GAMETHROWING!!!

we gottem pals

shit I missed the intuitive resolution to this post. can we all just pretend I posted this instead of gottem

[the worst]

IT WAS ME, IT WAS ME ALL ALONG
MUAHAHAHA

[the worst]

i totally came around on u ydrasse! high five / sorry?

[the worst]

oh the sacred pinkie promise. stronger than any trust tell. i am so relieved.

[the worst]

that's me irl rn

[the worst]

i didn't realise for a bit lol, but i got it eventually.
have i met either head before? you both feel somewhat familiar but i don't have any like, identity intuition guesses

[the worst]

can like raya or someone pls check in

pedit: awww

[the worst]

wait no menalque is a bigger troll than ydrasse i think

[the worst]

i've played with you some duckling! a couple of times on your super secret alt account

~Eve

which alt - radiantcowbells or northsidegal?

[the worst]

can't tell if Menalque troll or Ydrasse troll at this point lol

~Eve

menalque's post rings trollier, i don't think he /actually/ comes in here to relieve our anxiety after being mis-elim'd before nsg posts the endgame. that would be kinda like, very kind to us but semi disrespectful to nsg/The Institution. i think menalque is more likely to bully us but be respectful to The Institution ergo i think he's the troll

[the worst]

dude i love your firebringer alt. hilarious gimmick.

[the worst]

can't believe after everything people still think RC, NSG and I are three different people. glorious !

[the worst]

ya same
she could be super evil to get us back but
eh
i think mena is much higher troll equity

[the worst]

rce is offline on discord
i dunno if i have a way to get hold of raya or a50
guess we play the waiting game :'[

[the worst]

oh shit yes go team!!!!!!! <3 <3 <3

[the worst]

great job ducky! obviously other people were important too but that was a pretty great replace-in, always great to have you!

thank you so much! ^^
this was a really fun game. i don't think we've spoken about it yet, but i'm a huge fan of the "anuket topaz version" of this setup.

[the worst]

Is anyone going to join me on Almost50?

Alright then.

I think the kind of audacity? of Freddie's push here is probably what opened the gates for the flashwagon.

Drunkduck definitely voted A50 but I'm not sure anyone had sat back and seriously just gone "Hmm. No. Monkey scum." until this point.

[the worst]

Are you scum once again, S_S?

I am not.

Sure. I haven't said anything indicative of my alignment yet.

Say it ain't so SS.

He indeed did not say anything indicative of his alignment.

SS goodposting as always.

[the worst]

great job ducky! obviously other people were important too but that was a pretty great replace-in, always great to have you!

thank you so much! ^^
this was a really fun game. i don't think we've spoken about it yet, but i'm a huge fan of the "anuket topaz version" of this setup.

thanks! i saw you talking a little bit about it i think

yeah, i really like escapes as a mechanic but it's really weird to actually make a setup mechanic because if you go the original mith route or the way jingle did it then one bad scum member can take down their entire team, and too far in the other direction and you get something like perpetual mylo where it kind of drifts pretty far from the original intent

i think anuket topaz strikes a pretty good balance, and i'm really happy with how this run went.

it's hard for me to conceptualise the exact EV but I feel very similarly - the technical EV of mith's setup or IEP is probably quite close to 50%, but like you said just eliminating non-towny players who have a weaker scumgame should dramatically outperform the EV.

confirming 5 townies is still very damaging on paper, but it's a much more redeemable shift in the gamestate than Just Losing. I agree this run was a fantastic example of how scum can play around this setback.



(actually I don't even think Mohab is all that weak as scum, this was just a very towntelling playerlist. Also I really hope I get a chance to play with Maemuki at some point. she brought an awesome energy to her rep-in)

[the worst]

oh god same

[the worst]

does this mean.....
I can finally read you correctly and I'll never incorrectly call you scum again?!?

...naaaah :3

[the worst]

*slowly chews nail*