TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[joqiza]

It would be one thing if like, the other slots at the table were considerably scummy, but I think every other slot besides Autumn Leaves has towntold to some degree.

A Johnny scum flip probably wins the game because his reads list spews a bunch of people town and a Johnny town flips means you have 136 pages to reread where exactly 3 players at the table had TMI of his alignment.

It really should not be this hard.

[MathBlade]

I agree with the sentiment. Again the only reason I am not hammering is to read and if I have questions I can poke around, but it’s really no issue if Johnny is hammered now.

[MathBlade]

So starting on page 28 skimming here we goooooo

Flopz meta diving on that site with the bad UI seems towny.

There's a nervous energy about Cheney's posting that I can't quite place. Also having me as their least favorite person is just mean.

Fire punching in every direction and just being annoying in general puts them in my "I doubt scum would act like this in this setup" bucket right next to koba

The poem level in this game is dramatically higher than expected

Super asserting scum wouldn't bus in this game AND asserting that Chen / Fire can't be partners after their lil makeout sesh... bothers me. Unsure why tho. Will think on it.

850 is lamist from fire

Gotta say as I read up and more people are coming around on Cheney I'm feeling smug.

917 is bananas, mostly because I hard disagree with most of Auros reads. The Lilith take is spicy and the reads on me, flopz, and amp are forgettable. Notable that the only ACTIVE scumread at this juncture is Koba, whom I find to be an easy target.

This is up thru page 38 and I don't wanna lose this so posting now bbl bbz

Started skimming Johnny’s ISO and it looks like he drops townreads outside of readwall and is very scumreadesque in them. We probably would be able to rule of three some of this if Johnny is scum.

[Menalque]

Math also seems vaguely disingenuous if his whole thing is “a townbloc wins the game but only if I’m a member” is his position, which is kinda what it seems like to me

That is not my position AT ALL. This is horrible blatantly bad misrep. My position is that of J’s mentioned above. Find a townblock that is mutually agreed upon and execute outside of it. Re-evaluate said block on occasion then keep going.

Are you seriously going to accuse me of misrepping in the same catch up where you make this post:

That doesn’t seem like a super helpful question, auro

Someone please explain why Menal is a townread other than (oh just reread the pages). That very much looks like a wool over the eyes response when someone doesn’t like their reads questioned.

I am thinking Flopz/Johnny/AL/Menalque for my would elim pool.

Which presents my suggestion that auro maybe not encourage people to rank other players by charisma as putting “wool over the eyes” because of “not liking their reads being questioned”?

[Menalque]

And cool — you’re outside of it. Felt like the fact that you were presenting it on your entry meant you were expecting to be inside it/weren’t going to be happy with being outside it

[Menalque]

This posting is much better than Menalque’s keep J in your townblock.

The first line of that post is about how his views are similar to my own, and i made the post first

How are you trying to call out joqiza as doing good posting for saying the same thing as me only afterwards? Because he used more words to say it?

[Menalque]

Oh, right

I think fb is prob going to continue to tunnel me all game so I wouldn’t necessarily call this aligning, but I think if we can win before a lylo with both of us in it and I can stop him getting much influence in the game that probably isn’t a problem

Why does this read like it comes from a scum PT?

Yes, a fetish of mine is telling the town exactly what I’m planning to do as scum just for shits and gigs, you’re such a truly

inspired

scum hunter mathblade, congratulations

[Menalque]

Oh right

I mean, I would disagree with that so long as he continues to call me scum and one of my aims is to continue sidelining him so long as that continues

So you’ll listen to him so long as he townreads you? What if a majority of the game didn’t townread you? Surely there would be a reason. Someone’s reads/alignment aren’t dependent on whether they read you right, they’re dependent on logic and thoughts and bringing those to the table to find scum.

In this case, as in koba’s, potentially as in yours, the entire game was being interpreted through a lens of me!scum. As I know that not to be true, why would I trust the reads of that person on the rest of the game if I know they’re viewing all the other slots bearing in mind the idea that I’m scum and evaluating our interactions in that light

Also, if a majority of the game didn’t townread me, I’d probably die, duh doy

Finally, yes, shockingly, I’m already aware of that! But as already covered, if the rest of their reads are gleaned through the filter of believing X is scum and you know for a fact that X is not scum, that’s good reason to be sceptical of the rest of their reads and not just their read on you

[Menalque]

I feel sort of bad if fire repped out because of me but also feel like that’s irrational of me

[Menalque]

@Menalque

Here's the progression from Koba that I liked (a bit long):

{
500,

Koba says they won't be able to eliminate scum!Super d1

965,
966,

Koba thinks Super might be scum, but is looking outside

1006,

Koba votes lilith

1011,
1012,
1013,
1023,
1026,

Koba is gauging Super's response here

1028,

Koba thinks lilith/Super are partnered

1034,
1036,

Koba wants to lim lilith first because they don't think they can lim Super d1

1038,

Koba still appears to be evaluating their own read, though

1044,
1058,
1072,

Koba asks Super for a reads list

1080,
1082,
1096,
1106
}

Koba expressed a paranoia of Super, but acknowledged that they didn't think they could ever find eliminate her d1. When they voted lilith, they seemed to believe that Super's response was partner-indicative. They appeared to be trying to re-evaluate their own read, and asked Super for a reads list.

Koba has watched me catch scum!Super twice. Once while Koba and I were in a hydra together. Both times, I caught Super because she demonstrated TMI about flipped slots.

This is a complex thought process for scum to fake. In addition to that, it is largely internal, they're not trying to show off their towny thought process, they're just scumhunting. And, based on my personal meta with them, I believe is likely they would have this thought process as town.

Quoting this to be able to find it more easily

I’ll have a look tomorrow when less tired and I’ll try to parse it

[Menalque]

Like I can see worlds where math!slot is town quite easily and they’re playing badly and that’s just irritating me because in koba’s case they were tunnelling for personal reasons and in math’s case... he just doesn’t seem to have any real arguments for why I’m scum besides “blah mena was a meanie about my strat and also he’s lazy!! >:(“ and is also refusing to read the game through and is trying to engage without any context (which I just think is +scum in general tbh), which I guess boils down to math being OMGUSy (which i do know is true and I’m aware he has problems with strong voices) and lazy himself

[Menalque]

And like math, you can go on about being busy IRL as much as you like but the game is like a two hour read at most on a laptop, you could definitely have managed that over the last 3-4 days, especially if you idk, read when you’re taking a shit or something as well (which is, full disclosure, how I normally make sure I’m caught up on games in the morning)

Either get the read through done and summarise your thoughts on it, or stop lazily dicking around with my slot because I didn’t want to stroke your ego

[Menalque]

koba’s playstyle is audacious so I don’t see why chainsawing infinity couldn’t be a thing. they did that in legends.

why mathblade > infinity now? after I just joined the wagon too .o.

Honestly he’s just annoying me more than infinity is at this point

I don’t really wanna do johnny tho, I just wanted to see if there would be any panic unvotes from anyone who knew he’d flip town

What makes you not want to do Johnny exactly?

I’ve reconsidered due to joqiza wanting him more

I feel like my big concern is twofold:

(1) johnny has been a pretty easy slot to wagon and has compromise-y vibes to me, that means he could be town despite seeming p superficially scummy

If he is just scum, great, I think odds are town wins

The concern, point (2) is that if he /is/ town then there’s potentially another slogfest of a day tomorrow where johnny!town (when he seems like a v likely partner for infinity at this point) weakens the case on infinity!scum slightly and I think the question of killing in (you/me/infinity) remains on the table and that can’t be fully resolved before lylo if it is wrong that there’s at least one scum in those three names. Whereas if infinity!town then we can still kill you tomorrow and then if I’m wrong on you too I can be eliminated on D3 to force te-evaluation in time for lylo instead of me just being lylo bait

[Menalque]

Also, like, I don’t think me voting math is that surprising lili: I already said that if infinity!town that’s where I’d wanna go tomorrow. I’m not sure there’s that much to be lost in reversing the order, but I’ll switch back to infinity if there isn’t support for this, I wanna end day shortly

I don’t think it’s an unreasonable vote? more asking because of wagoning things do you know what I mean

to be honest I don’t even know what I mean

Not... exactly? Basically, full disclosure, this is from a practical POV: I would like to kill in (infinity, math) until scumflip. If there’s not scum then I’ve fucked up p badly, so be it, that can’t be helped, but I think there’s decent odds there’s scum in there, probably >rand odds. I’ve fought all day for infinity and still think a lot would be resolved by flipping him — eg I think we almost always just kill in (Johnny and chenn) the next two days then reevaluate if the game isn’t over. However, I feel less confident on infinity than I did earlier — this may be because I’ve more or less made it clear what to do to get a TR from me (engage me in good faith, try to focus beyond small areas) and so he’s just... done that. He still hasn’t towned it up at all like he did in PyP imo, but he has improved.

Math coming in, proposing a big grand strategy, and then getting super shitty when I wanted to verify that it’s actually a strat that’s good for town is... dubious. Especially as I think he’d have used the fact that he proposed the strategy to try to ensure he was in the townbloc (where, if he’s scum, that definitely... weakens the strat and makes it easier for scum because one of them is fairly safe from elim). I also dislike his points that I don’t want a townbloc when among my opening posts I said something very along the lines of “if I can just find like 3 other town I’m confident in, ideally 4, then the game is basically won”. Which is not precisely talking about townblocs but which is thinking in that sort of way — successfully PoEing scum. Then there’s koba basically having just lazily tunnelled me/super for the entirety of the game after my rep in. I just don’t get good vibes from how math is playing this, and his lack of reading is concerning to me. I dislike that he’s pushing me without having read my ISO, and I dislike how quickly his suspicion of fb disappeared as soon as I *asked* about his strat. Wasn’t even critical, just asked about it.

So basically, I’m less sure on infinity and math has made the koba!slot worse imo. Which then brings me to my final reason for switching: I feel like it’s gonna be easier killing math today. I think infinity has sort of locked himself into a bad position as scum because he knows I’m very dubious of him but by insisting he super duper TRs me I think that’s a hard place to pivot out of it I push him tomorrow for instance (which I will prob be doing if math doesn’t flip scum). Whereas I feel like it’s going to be another absolute fucking slogfest to elim math tomorrow if I *am* wrong on infinity, and so for that reason I think I’d rather reverse the order rn

Oh no, this strategy I mentioned is the best strategy. Regardless of if everyone instantly dumped votes on me for a green flip.

You realize you’re in essence BOPing me for not reading 100+ pages in about 50 hours while working for 8 of them and actually having a fucking life on Sunday and doing my best to answer questions asked in other games? Yes I haven’t read backwards and yes that is shitty. But town’s got what it got. But I think at some point if you’re somehow town you have to realize my entire life cannot and will not revolve around mafia. This is a game ffs.

Again, the entire game is like 2 hours to read prob and I wasn’t even asking that, I was telling you to read my ISO which is like probably 30 mins at most to see if you actually think I’m scum but instead you won’t do that and insist on reading me, if you are reading me, purely based on what you’ve seen since you repped in, whereas i think the points which most clearly show that I haven’t been approaching this game from a scum mindset are already in my ISO, but instead of verifying what multiple people are telling you incl people you’re TRing you’re continuing a lazy OMGUS tunnel for me *asking you a single fucking question that you decided to take as me shading you, aka the least charitable way you could possibly take it*

And you’re surprised that I have concerns about you when your pred lazily tunnelled me in a very similar way basically all game, which makes me think maybe the behaviour in your slot is more than a coincidence and is, in fact, strategic

[Auro]

Won't be active for the next two days~

[joqiza]

I’ve reconsidered due to joqiza wanting him more

I feel like my big concern is twofold:

(1) johnny has been a pretty easy slot to wagon and has compromise-y vibes to me, that means he could be town despite seeming p superficially scummy

If he is just scum, great, I think odds are town wins

The concern, point (2) is that if he /is/ town then there’s potentially another slogfest of a day tomorrow where johnny!town (when he seems like a v likely partner for infinity at this point) weakens the case on infinity!scum slightly and I think the question of killing in (you/me/infinity) remains on the table and that can’t be fully resolved before lylo if it is wrong that there’s at least one scum in those three names. Whereas if infinity!town then we can still kill you tomorrow and then if I’m wrong on you too I can be eliminated on D3 to force te-evaluation in time for lylo instead of me just being lylo bait

(1) I don't really have an answer to this and maybe you'll end up being right but I would rather not overthink the wagon dynamics and instead just smite the scummiest slot. Especially cuz Johnny's partner can be on his wagon here.

(2) I mean the universe you're proposing here has Johnny going to lylo if you're wrong, and if HE'S also town that's obviously a disaster, so it's not like we can really get around this.

I really think we maybe just live in the easy universe cuz a lot of slots have towntold to some degree and the slots in my PoE are scummy and when you have that simultaneous dynamic good things usually come from hammering the scummy slots. I'm willing to vote Autumn if you absolutely need to resolve there but I like how he bent the knee and I feel like if Johnny/Autumn are both town and we're living in the harder universe I'm more likely to figure that out with Autumn than I would with Johnny.

[T-Bone]

Shirou (Fumuki) replaces Firebringer effective immediately.

Vote Count

JohnnyFarrar - 4

(chennisden, Autumn Leaves, Joqiza, Shirou)

Autumn Leaves - 3

(Auro, Lilith2013, JohnnyFarrar)

Chennisden - 1

(Flopz)

Mathblade - 1

(Menalque)

Flopz - 1

(Mathblade)

Not Voting - 0

()

Activity Check - All good!

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to remove politely

Deadline: (expired on 2021-01-31 21:00:00)

[Shirou]

Hi there, I'm a player in this game now I suppose.



I'll probably lurk quite a bit after giving my thoughts (reading the game at the moment).

I would normally do a catch-up posting spam but I don't feel like tryharding this game/it's easier to just do it once when I've collected my thoughts

[Shirou]

By the way, just as trivia, I feel like DKKoba slot did something which can kinda be constructed as a minor scum slip or at least a blatant lie, but I didn't see anyone point it out.

My read on the slot is independent of that, but it's a shame I can't question them about it since they replaced out, because it just doesn't make sense from where I'm coming from.

What I'm talking about is that DKKoba said early in the game that "Nancy had shared a secret" with them to read Auro, but when Auro questioned her on it, DKKoba had to ask Nancy the secret.

This literally means that Nancy didn't really "share" a "secret" with DKKoba early, at most only mentioning that she (Nancy) could read Auro, but DKKoba still acted early as if them "knew" the secret method of reading Auro.

Either way DKKoba is all over the place. Can't relate to any of their posts and I'm on page 55.

[chennisden]

chenn you seem pretty chill about the fact Flopz is hard tunneling you rn

I think it's not very likely it comes from a place of scum

[chennisden]

Unless I'm right about Johnny AND he's trying to prevent his death real hard, which just means I care about Johnny going first either way

[chennisden]

I agree with the sentiment. Again the only reason I am not hammering is to read and if I have questions I can poke around, but it’s really no issue if Johnny is hammered now.

Let's give Shirou time to parse the game.

[Shirou]

I don't know about you guys, but to me it seems like DKKoba lied about her teammates participation in this game (Nancy about Auro), which to me is particularly very scum-indicative, and if DK is town and just lied for the sake of "putting Auro on edge" or something, it sounds quite silly and it's their fault, not mine, that it looks bad on them.

It may look like minor but other than being intentionally silly, there's 0 reason for town to fake teammates participation in the game and DKKoba ISO is already full of "I'm playing 5D chess but in truth it just looks like random, but believe me it all makes sense somehow".

In a recent page skim I've also noted some players saying that being this messy/scummy is "DKKoba's meta" and I just want to say I think it's bad reasoning.

Nero Cain is also someone known for "scummy posting" as town, but in Fungus Mafia he actually rolled scum, and when I was making my case on him, everyone was too sure he was town because..."his town meta is being scummy".

Look, that argument doesn't make sense. If you don't have a 100% ~ 90% read rate on someone (with a good sample size), don't think you understand so much of their meta that you can differentiate between them being scummy because they're town, and scummy simply because they're scum.

[Autumn Leaves]

The thing is that I don't think koba's play is actually scum-indicative for anyone, especially not koba. Ultimately I think poking around randomly without a plan is town-indicative because it's from an uninformed perspective. Yes it's true that they could've changed their meta here, but occam's razor says they're just town. Most of the way I read koba comes from gut, and it's difficult for them to know what to do to make me townread them on gut.

[chennisden]

Funny that my gut instinct is the opposite.

Scum can have no plan, and in such an indecisive and uncertain atmosphere, I'd be surprised if they

did

.