Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Dwlee99]

A claim would be good just to make sure she doesn't have results or something

[Sakura Hana]

I think im the only one voting bears anyway, plus i still see no reason to risk getting the strongman into the raid, now that we know strongman exists, i feel it's less likely i was RB'd N1 and a strongman happened instead. So we should probably avoid a potential strongman that gained an extra shot from the first raid to be in this one.

[Mandelbrot]

MB or RC is where I want the lim to end today.

I'm good with voting either one, when it's time to build a wagon.

- House

[RealCheeks]

Romance
mastina
Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
RealCheeks
Toogeloo
Bell

Another thing to think about is.
If Mirio was a strongman shot and i wasnt roleblocked, then this potentially contains the strongman.

I feel like this is really important and why I'm not crazy looking for a deepwolf, if you find the strongman that'll be only slightly less awesome than finding the RB.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I actually think MB is town, I don't think they hard defend Elsa like that as a buddy. Think I nailed it on the head with Mandel.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Or Bell I dunno I keep going hot and cold on Bell.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I think Toog is town after more thought because he would've given Elsa a better claim right?...
~C

[RealCheeks]

Elsa is scum because Momodi is a Vanilla Townie at best. There is no information to share.

My hero solve as of this very second is Elsa, Wheme, Mystic Bears, and Mandelbrot (my deep wolf pick).

I think Mystic Bears needs to exit the raid and Qrow and Raven needs to be on it.

Toog actually gets credit for Mandel.
~C

[RealCheeks]

StD, Dwlee, Mandelbrot is my legacy.
~C

[Mandelbrot]

StD, Dwlee, Mandelbrot is my legacy.
~C

Your red flip will make this grandstanding pointless.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

I can flip Toog's read of me with one word.

A taru farewell.

Should that time come.

[mastina]

Yo. First off:

VOTE: Join Raid

Join Raid

For obvious reasons, given that you want me on this raid. Just sayin', keeping a guaranteed success every day is very very strong.

2:

Elsa Jay, Lahabrea (

Garlean Invader 1-shot Combined Janitor Roleswapper

), was eliminated Day 3.

You are

Lahabrea (

Garlean Invader 1-shot Combined Janitor Roleswapper

)

Ability:

• Ascian:
  As an Ascian, you have a power to overtake someone's body. Once per game, when you make a nightkill you may choose to hide the flip of the target. If successful, you will also take his role.

While my role can bypass the janitor aspect of this role, I got confirmation from the mod that I wouldn't be able to bypass the 'take role' aspect. In other words, as soon as the janitor was used, we lost the ability to ever know what H1H2 knew because Elsa stole it, meaning, my bypass wouldn't work.

In other words, I can bypass the

janitor

, but I cannot bypass the

roleswapper

, so it's a good thing we flipped Elsa yesterday.

3: I wrote this before the topic was locked and while it was partially a case on Elsa, it still has good info so I'mma posting it now.

I think it looks like Elsa Jay is the consensus. I think it's wrong, but I think the wagon is pure with the exception of possibly tictac and TC, who MAY be resolved in the night phase. I'm debating moving my vote there in case I am wrong.

I realize that Elsa's not lockscum here, but there's multiple reasons I prefer the Elsa elimination.
1: SirCakez's treatment of Elsa Jay fits his scum modus operandi of how he usually defaults to treating his scumbuddies. Though this is not slam-dunk (as SirCakez is aware of his meta and actively trying to change it), it seems more like a probability than a possibility that SirCakez slipped back into the bad habit without having consciously thought about it.

2: Elsa Jay was on the failed raid, and there is only a finite number of possible scum on that raid. Even

if

Elsa Jay is town, an Elsa Jay flip is, explicitly, not worthless, as it, explicitly, would narrow down the number of finite names who could be scum on the failed raid.

3: By play, Elsa Jay's play has felt incredibly pro-scum. This is a little hard to quantify, but when it comes to the motivation and intent of Elsa's posts, to me they reek of being scum. I realize this is something that's subjective rather than objective, but I still should call it as I see it. When I look at Elsa Jay's posts, I struggle to see the town justification for them. (It requires me to go through difficult logical leaps relying on Elsa Jay basically being a manipulator even as town and being, so to speak, in the Flavor Leaf/Boonskiies school of play, and even via

that

, I have a hard time tracking. But admittedly, due to how foreign/alien the FL school of play is to my brain, I can't follow it too well anyway. Still, though, it's extra hard for me to see it this game from Elsa.) In contrast, when I look at Elsa Jay's posts in the lens of them coming from a scum wincon, every post, every move, just makes perfect sense.

4: I genuinely think that, with the possible exception of Dwlee, all the names on the D2 raid aside from Elsa are more likely town than scum.
I've doubts on TC owing to the lackluster play from the slot, sure, but as I've said I genuinely believe the tracker result of going nowhere is a probability-of-innocent over possibility.
I've doubts on tictac being town, due to tictac's content overall being in the Toogeloo school of "it's there, but you don't really remember it" (Toog has seen me describe his play multiple times so Toog will understand what I mean by this), but what I see

does

look town, especially more recently.
I've doubts on RealCheeks being town, but both heads have looked town to me overall with their posting, especially CheekyTeeky. There's no

guarantee

that they're town, but they definitely

look

town to me.
And while Bell

could

be scum, I'm still like 90% sure that this is Bell as town, to the point where Bell remains one of my top townreads.

So I genuinely don't see the scum who caused the raid to fail, being anyone other than {Elsa Jay, Dwlee99}.

None of these on their own would be strong, but with all four, it builds up. I don't have a slam-dunk "Elsa Jay is clearly scum here beyond any question of doubt".

But I genuinely think that Elsa Jay is the best elimination, both due to a fairly high chance of Elsa flipping scum,

and

, the clear tangible benefits to be had even if Elsa

doesn't

flip scum.

[Bell]

Cool mastina. Please full claim.

[Dwlee99]

Wtf was the point of being able to reveal a janitor but not a roleswap

[Mandelbrot]

Cool mastina. Please full claim.

+1

There's no utility in hiding your flavor. There's no remaining mystique to your utility to hide behind.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

It would explain the abilities she has, and why she can legitimately hunt scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

- House

[mastina]

VC 3.05

Tomorrow Corporation (2):

WhemeStar, Mystic Bears

Mandelbrot (1):

Save The Dragons

tictac (1):

Qrow and Raven

ArcAngel9 (1):

Dwlee99

Mystic Bears (1):

Bell

Not Voting:

ArcAngel9, Elsa Jay

Btw really only interested in voting in this pool.

And from them:

HARD TOWN:
Bell
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)
tictac

SOFT TOWN:
Save The Dragons

???:
Dwlee99

REMAINDER:
Whemestar
ArcAngel9

So like.

VOTE: ArcAngel9
Would also vote: {WhemeStar, Dwlee99}.

Do I think that group is exclusively the scum?

No, but I'm not really interested in touching the Elsa voters today and I'm not interested in touching my previous hard townreads today.

[Mandelbrot]

Full claim please, mastina.

[Dwlee99]

I think she has 300 posts of catch up until she is back with us

[mastina]

It's boring but like. If the slot's town oh well, if the slot's scum it's a super easy flip.

Basically why I want the D4/D5 flips to be ArcAngel9 and WhemeStar.

If we get two scum from that, we're down to the last scum and things get more spicy.
If we get one scum from that, we still gotta find two more but we've got scum basically locked down and things begin to get spicy.
If we get no scum from that, kinda sucks, but oh well; we can begin to hard-effort at that point.

[Mandelbrot]

I think she has 300 posts of catch up until she is back with us

She can see current posts when her post... posts.

- House

[mastina]

Because the VC said he did. Ask GiF. I’m not making that up. He was the hammer despite never actually self-voting.

can confirm.

Echoing this. When I saw the final vote on Elsa Jay was Elsa Jay without Elsa having voted Elsa Jay, I lowkey thought that Elsa had stolen a role from H1H2 that would self-hammer at L-1 honestly.

[mastina]

Do you think we should do a mass claim while you're still alive at this point?

I wouldn't be opposed to a mass-flavor-claim and the folks that are consistently in the bottom half of most folks's readslists being required to back their flavor up with a roleclaim.

I wouldn't want everyone to claim tho.

If we get to 3 scum dead, sure, massclaim feels fine, but with only two scum dead massclaim feels suboptimal.

Especially with the scum roleblocker alive.

Kill another scum and/or kill the scum roleblocker, fuck yeah massclaim away but with three scum alive and a scum roleblocker, not really comfortable with a massclaim of roles. Mass-flavor-claim would be fine with players topping the elimination charts forced to claim, but EVERYONE even the townie slots fully massclaiming feels like a mistake here.

[mastina]

I want to see h1h2's role

So did I, but sadly, while my role can bypass a janitor it cannot bypass the effects of a roleswapper and thus cannot reveal h1h2's role. Using my janitor bypass would just reveal that h1h2 had had their role swapped by Elsa.

Like, I was getting, "shut up, we're Masons" kinda vibes from the hard defense & the way MB submitted a raid list exchanging his name for Elsa's.

I genuinely thought that Elsa had a neighborhood with the players most strongly defending Elsa (e.g. House, Titus, MB, StD--not all of them, obv, but some of them) and that the reason they were hard-defending Elsa was due to some neighborhood shenanigans.

Apparently not tho.

[mastina]

I'm suddenly getting paranoid about mastina =_=

Iso me, control-F "cakez".
Repeat this control-f, but with "Elsa" instead.

Then iso Elsa and control-f 'mas'.

There was literally NO player pushing Elsa harder than I was and if you think there was, you can fuck off because I was 100% the strongest pusher of Elsa being scum bar none. You can give

credit

for the Elsa elimination elsewhere as I was not the only reason Elsa was eliminated but while I may not own 100% credit for the elimination, I WAS the

strongest

pusher of that elimination.

So either I was hard-bussing or I'm not scum.

(Also this isn't my scum meta, so.)

Can mastina pass the raid by herself with her role?

If you're asking if I could pass the raid solo as the only one on it?

Haven't asked the mod but I'd actually assume the answer is 'yes', given nothing says I couldn't.

However, doing so would obviously burn through a guaranteed success. Given I only have two shots total and burned one D1 (with it being beneficial to not specify if I did or did not burn it D3), I don't want to burn through a shot today.

Tomorrow if you want me to verify my role though would be happy to pass a raid solo (or close to).

(Basically, right now I have either 0 or 1 shots. If it's 0 I can't burn through a success; if it's 1 I don't want to reveal that I have only 1 by forcing a burned success. Tomorrow if I am on the raid and it succeeds, I will have either 1 or 2 shots, depending on how many shots I have right now and if I burn one today but will always have at least one with a chance I have two. So obviously, confirming my role that way would be optimal tomorrow, not today.)

mastina had her chance at the coroner, supposedly we'd know the flip even if she died, well she's alive, and we don't know the flip so i'm assuming she either got interfered with or was lying. So there should be no reason for her to withhold a full claim.

I was not lying. My role can bypass a janitor. It was explicitly confirmed by GIF that everything I thought about it was true. I couldn't be roleblocked and it would work even if I was nightkilled.

However, I did not anticipate the roleswapper.

And my role cannot bypass the roleswapper.

So I didn't use my role last night because it would not have revealed anything useful.

I

really

don't wanna eat a modkill from communication being too close to what GIF said, but basically, GIF said RE: Elsa Jay's role, that after Elsa used the roleswapper, H1H2 would be shown as having had their role stolen. H1H2's original role would not be revealed, because my role cannot bypass the roleswapper.

I don't know how else to explain it beyond that.
My role can bypass a

janitor

. Nothing can prevent my role from bypassing a janitor. Scum can't roleblock my janitor-bypass and scum killing me won't stop my janitor-bypass from functioning.
My role cannot bypass a

roleswapper

, because while my role can bypass the janitor, it would then after having bypassed the janitor not show H1H2's original role but rather show that H1H2 had their role stolen.

there's no further use for her role

Actually, there is. I said my role could bypass a janitor; when did I say that was

all

it could do? I didn't. My role has other utility beyond bypassing a janitor.

And I'd rather not out it.

I'm not exactly fond of flavor-claiming (though I'm not hard-opposed) specifically because I'm like 90% sure flavor-claiming will reveal the nature of the role that functions as a janitor-bypass. I'm

willing

to, but I'm not claiming short of the town, ALL of the town, massclaiming (and that is something, per what I've said, I'm opposed to with 3 scum alive with one of them a roleblocker).