Mini Normal 2245: LJITGBSMoD [game over!]
-
-
Datisi it/heDrawn from Memoryit/he
- Drawn from Memory
- Drawn from Memory
- Posts: 26012
- Joined: March 28, 2019
- Pronoun: it/he
- Location: Croatia
vote count 6.02
with 4 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 6 ends in (expired on 2021-11-26 21:00:00).
Last edited by Datisi on Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M-
-
StrangeMatter Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1656
- Joined: June 7, 2021
- Location: CST (UTC-6)
- Happy Scumday!
What even is your case on me right now?In post 2020, Commander Shepard wrote:
I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.In post 2019, Dwlee99 wrote:You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
I am not scum, but even if I was I would not be forced to scumread you. My play yesterday was about working down a PoE. As I said I know scum was on that elim so I played that properly. The more you say you’re honed in for good play it’s just spam. It’s quite frankly wrong unless you are scum and are incapable of seeing it from my point of view.In post 2022, Dwlee99 wrote:
But you!scum is forced to scumread me because you know I'm honed into you for your play on wrt slot yesterdayIn post 2020, Commander Shepard wrote:
I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.In post 2019, Dwlee99 wrote:You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.In post 2024, Dwlee99 wrote:
And I think redtea said it well ^^^In post 1863, redtea wrote:
gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtellIn post 1779, Dwlee99 wrote:
okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum hereIn post 1776, Commander Shepard wrote:Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare
Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
There’s the scum pointers of you being a replace in so late in the game and not enough backwards hunting. You being on the tailend of Gamma is sus. Voting when it’s conf town decision is sus.In post 2026, StrangeMatter wrote:
What even is your case on me right now?In post 2020, Commander Shepard wrote:
I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.In post 2019, Dwlee99 wrote:You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me
However just because I can make an argument you are scum doesn’t make it right. I want to elim the right person.-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441
I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason, because once I make a decision I have to stick with it.-
-
Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25777
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
PerspectiveIn post 2031, Commander Shepard wrote:viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441
I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason,because once I make a decision I have to stick with it
I'm gonna give you space to do your ~analysis~ though
Good luck
Actually, there were things directed towards me and I feel the need to respondI prefer they, thanks :)-
-
Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25777
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
-
-
Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25777
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
I feel like you killed Alice specifically to come into today saying thatIn post 2028, Commander Shepard wrote:
This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.In post 2024, Dwlee99 wrote:
And I think redtea said it well ^^^In post 1863, redtea wrote:
gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtellIn post 1779, Dwlee99 wrote:
okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum hereIn post 1776, Commander Shepard wrote:Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare
Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"I prefer they, thanks :)-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
No perspective slip. This to me is essentially elo with Osaka deciding it. If we no elim Osaka clearly dies and protecting someone would be throwing. If I waffle between the two of you after voting then we surely lose as both you and Matter think it’s me. Therefore I must decide,be right, and be convincing.In post 2032, Dwlee99 wrote:
PerspectiveIn post 2031, Commander Shepard wrote:viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441
I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason,because once I make a decision I have to stick with it
I'm gonna give you space to do your ~analysis~ though
Good luck
Actually, there were things directed towards me and I feel the need to respond-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
How would I know you’d highlight redtea so I highlight that? You’re stretching Mixter. I get you think/are pushing I am scum but this is just confbias and not useful and gives more to Osaka who says they can’t/aren’t reading. What are you doing to bring them up to speed?In post 2034, Dwlee99 wrote:
I feel like you killed Alice specifically to come into today saying thatIn post 2028, Commander Shepard wrote:
This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.In post 2024, Dwlee99 wrote:
And I think redtea said it well ^^^In post 1863, redtea wrote:
gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtellIn post 1779, Dwlee99 wrote:
okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum hereIn post 1776, Commander Shepard wrote:Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare
Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
@osaka this has a summary much as I have been able to of day one. Been crazy busy. People object to some conclusions but post numbers are there for yourself.In post 2004, Commander Shepard wrote:Known Alignments- Town -> toxictaipan, val89, norway, marcistar, darby,t3,aliceK
- Scum -> Jolyne, Gamma
Assumptions- Redtea is town based on the claim and Alice not dying.
- Scum are in between Dwlee99 and StrangeMatter (fmpov this is a fact, but I'm putting this under assumptions to be clear of the starting premises.)
Day 1 events
Day 1 Facts- Day 1 lasted until 1197.
- Post 405 Val89 confirmed as town
- Day 1 flipped toxictaipan as VT. The only locked scum on it is Gamma. The only other possible scum on the wagon is Dwlee. Jolyne and StrangeMatter's slot (and mine if you want to consider me which is well not possible from my pov) were off the wagon.
Joylene scumreads/votes- Jolyne voted Darby, Alice,val, unvote, Alice, post 853 -> Claimed informed ascetic scum. Already noted as to why this was important.
- Jolyne scumread Norway, t3,
- 422 shades conf town bad.
- Suggests and pushes toxic despite never voting for them.
- Hard pushes Alice
- Post 853 votes are T3. Tinfoils Gamma as partner to Alice. 1103, doesn't "buy this shit" from Gamma.
Joylene townreads- Joylne -> marci, darby, t3, complains about Darby and val wagon despite never talking about val, dwlee town, norway, alice, gamma
- Post 853 -> redtea, marci.
Gamma notes- Votes: t3, val, t3, toxic, t3, toxic (not a typo that pattern is duplicated)
- Gamma defends Dwlee T3 meta argument scum by exploitable? How? It's either true or it's not. Look at T3 meta tell later. See if accurate. -> Hints towards Dwlee
- Gamma POE 671 -> Rule of 3 hints towards Strange Matter
I need to ISO Dwlee and CamelCase D1 and check out T3's meta suggestion to see if it's true.
THIS IS A FAKE VOTE : DWLEE
Then because of the limited size, will probably combine the other days.-
-
Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25777
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
-
-
StrangeMatter Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1656
- Joined: June 7, 2021
- Location: CST (UTC-6)
- Happy Scumday!
And exactly what makes you think all of that is wrong?In post 2029, Commander Shepard wrote:
There’s the scum pointers of you being a replace in so late in the game and not enough backwards hunting. You being on the tailend of Gamma is sus. Voting when it’s conf town decision is sus.In post 2026, StrangeMatter wrote:
What even is your case on me right now?In post 2020, Commander Shepard wrote:
I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.In post 2019, Dwlee99 wrote:You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me
However just because I can make an argument you are scum doesn’t make it right. I want to elim the right person.-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.
this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)
town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)
that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.
which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.check out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
someone please sanity check what i just wrote. i wrote these thoughts for myself but i wanna know if they make sense (i'm quite tired at the moment)
this also means that we NEED to execute today, because if we don't execute then i should not defend anyone; in that case, where the first item is the kill target and the second target is the protect target, scum wins if:
- (me, town1)
- (me, town2)
- (town1, town2)
- (town2, town1)
- (town2, scum)
- (town1, scum)
town wins if:
- (me, scum)
and we get an extra day if:
- (town1, town1)
- (town2, town2)
which means scum wins 2/3 of the time, with p=1/9 of town win and p=2/9 of extra day. that means that we're in the same situation - if we no exec, then i'm the obvious target, and we get an extra day sans me. whether or not that's the optimal play ultimately depends on who we want to be in the next daycheck out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
@StrangeMatter -> Those things are obviously bad. Not sure what you’re asking.
So couple of things
1) No one here scumreads you and based on the babysitter claim you are confirmed town.
2) Scum will 100% shoot you overnight because of point A.
3) This means we have a 2/3rds chance of losing if we no elim.
Instead I think the better option is to either go with who you say to elim or you give reads and you protect no one going into the night.
Admittedly this means I have to dig myself out of the hole scum have put me in and whichever one of Dwlee/StrangeMatter is scum well done but you should not be protecting anyone tonight.-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
-
-
Commander Shepard Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1078
- Joined: March 31, 2017
-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
didn't i literally just say that if we no exec, i shouldn't protect? did you not read anything i just wrote?In post 2045, Commander Shepard wrote:If you’re dead set on not elimming as the traditional four rules say please don’t protect anyone. I would rather you just argue for who you think scum is than a hero babysit.check out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
my point is we're likely to gain a day regardless of what happens if we exec todayIn post 2043, Commander Shepard wrote:3)* if we no elim and you protect someone.
It’s much more important to sort people than try to gain a day. There’s four people left and we have to buckle down and decide the elim.check out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
In post 2044, Commander Shepard wrote:If we elim and assume that we elim town, that should also be considered an auto loss because then a Townie dies and GG.
I agree that we need to elim today but it’s a foolish thing to think you’re more than an IC at this point Osaka.osuka wrote:did you not read anything i just wrote?check out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi-
-
osuka he/him/hisJack of All Tradeshe/him/his
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5898
- Joined: July 2, 2017
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: with my scumpartners
actually this doesn't make sense but i don't want to elaborate as to whyIn post 2040, osuka wrote:quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.
this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)
town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)
that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.
which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.check out osuka's votecounter + modtools, and get to know an idiot (me!)
"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.