Newbie 2086 - Reaction GIFs | End!

catboi · Post Post #725 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:36 am

In post 677, catboi wrote:I should say: conventional wisdom in this situation is to re-read and re-evaluate, that's the standard spiel that gets tossed out all the time. You're in ELO for a reason, if you had the right reads you wouldn't be here, etc etc.

It doesn't really work. At least not in my experience. The more I reread the worse my accuracy becomes. That's why I'm sticking to my first impulse of Dunn-scum. If it's wrong, that sucks but I can live with it.

In general I think a lot of people could stand to recheck their assumptions at endgame, as I feel like too few do and they sleepwalk into the wrong vote. But do as I say, not as I do, I suppose.

For the record: This is a post and perspective I simply never make as scum. It doesn't happen. It has no value.

I have a harder time convincing people with something I intuitively

feel

in my head but haven't put into words yet. But as town I'm less interested in "showing" every step of my thought process and more in figuring things out for myself regardless of whether or not it all shows up in the thread. My success rate in ELO/late game voting is, without exaggeration, incredibly poor. I'd estimate something like 80-90% incorrect? Significantly below random. But that always came after doing "the right thing" and rereading. More often than not, my first impressions were significantly more likely to be correct and I talked myself out of them every time, wanting to believe there was a more complicated solution.

But the thing is: when no one here really knows me except for Dunn. I don't need to take that perspective as scum. I can play a much "cleaner", conventional game that would appear more appealing and "solvy" to players unfamiliar with me.

It is incredibly easy for me to fake analysis. Had I drawn scum, I could very easily put on a show of rereading the game, ISOing everyone, waste a ton of time, and make it look good. People townread the most foolish things.

Maybe I

should

adapt that to my play for the sake of convincing people but the concern was that I'd end up confirmation biasing myself into a bad read. My goal, first and foremost, was to make the vote I felt was right, because even if my success rate is poor I am always distrustful of other people and

hate

giving up agency and sitting back and waiting for someone else to do something. That's a play that is much less good for optics but it is one I have no reason at all to make as scum.

butterchurn · Post Post #726 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:13 am

In post 721, catboi wrote:It's very likely he legitimately suspected that void was possibly the doctor, and stayed away for that reason.

This wasn't a major point, but I don't think this is likely. Me, you, zefiend, and cape have claimed VT (Dunn has effectively claimed VT as well by thinking that void could be doctor, although I don't think he ever said it directly). If he were scum, then all of town just claimed VT. I don't see why town would lie on their claims here, so that would mean that we would be in Column C, with no doctor, and the scumteam would be aware of that since they wouldn't have a roleblocker.

In post 721, catboi wrote:As scum dunn lurks hard and akes that kind of play because he knows people will let him get away with it.

Do you remember any example games where this happened? I would very much like to look at them, if so.

In post 721, catboi wrote:I regret using the "carrying water" line on cape earlier because you really are making a ton of excuses for Dunn's play.

That wasn't my intent. I just wanted to hear your reasoning. You've given it now, thanks for that.

In post 722, catboi wrote:I WOULD HAVE COMPROMISED.

I made that post at 1:30 AM my time. The intent was to discuss this with other people. By the time I woke up, the game was hammered. I WAS GIVEN NO OPPORTUNITY TO TALK WITH OTHER PEOPLE. You are willfully distorting the timeline of events here. I did not have him as a strong suspect. I had him as someone in my POE. I was uncertain. I always am. I would have gladly moved to put my vote on him but was cut off from doing so.

I was referring to before that post, so no, I'm not distorting the timeline. I'm aware that you likely did not want things to move on void that fast regardless of your alignment. And if you didn't have him as a strong suspect, then that explains why you didn't push hard for him, although I still would expect you to look into him further earlier in the day when he had 2 votes from Greeting and cape.

In post 723, catboi wrote:Why the hell would you not engage with someone who has provided decidedly less to work with this game? Why would you notangage with his reasoning at all? The hyperfocus makes absolutely no sense.

Because I don't really trust my ability to read his responses or reactions. If you haven't noticed, I've had very poor reads this game (suspicions and votes on 3 of the 4 confirmed town), which is why I entered the day planning to approach things differently. And it's not like I'm ignoring him, I gave you each equal weight while I was rereading, I just don't really have specific questions for him. From my perspective, the only question is which of you or dunn is scum. I feel like I'm learning more from this than I would be if I took a different approach.

In post 724, catboi wrote:In a general sense dunn's scumreads this game prior to today have all been either opportunistic or survivalistic: he has either voted on the lead wagon at the time (as with not known/cape) or pushed back against the people who were pushing him. At precisely no point was he ever actually trying to genuinely evaluate people.

Do you mean with not known/void? When he voted cape, there were 2 votes on Greeting, and 1 each on zefiend, dunn, and void. I assume you meant that cape fits into the pushing back against people who were pushing him category, but he suspected cape before cape suspected him.

In post 725, catboi wrote:I have a harder time convincing people with something I intuitively feel in my head but haven't put into words yet. But as town I'm less interested in "showing" every step of my thought process and more in figuring things out for myself regardless of whether or not it all shows up in the thread.

I think I buy this, and it helps explain some of your behavior if you're town.

butterchurn · Post Post #727 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:28 am

Also, I know I'm pushing you a lot, but understand my perspective -- yesterDay early I was fairly convinced of Greeting being scum, and for the most part, you talked me out of it. Once I had come around on Greeting, I was feeling a lot of doubt in my own scumreads and suspicions, and you defending Greeting had me townreading you. So I decided to put some more trust in the direction you were heading instead. That backfired pretty badly. It makes me pretty hesitant to follow along with you again, because I REALLY don't want to make that mistake twice, and so I want to make sure I'm doing my due diligence and considering all possibilities first.

ɀefiend · Post Post #728 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:31 am

In post 705, butterchurn wrote:
In post 695, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 659, butterchurn wrote:
In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.
I did not. I said that about Dunn. Very interesting that you mixed those up, though. Since before the kill even came in, I thought that only teams with you on them would kill Greeting. The change in opinion that I've had is that I see it could be possible for Dunn to be scum (specifically, with you), where previously I thought the kill only made sense if he were town.

In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:2) Do you think scum!me spends an entire day pushing Greeting instead of lazy sheeping on VOID, only to lazy-kill Greeting the following night?
Yes, obviously I do. I think Greeting is a bit of a weird kill no matter who the scumteam is, but clearly
someone
thought it was the best choice, and I think any team without you on it would be much less likely to opt for that route.
This is all post-hoc rationalization. I 1000% do not kill Greeting last night if I'm scum.

Your focus on me today is very telling.

I do not suspect Cape will hand me the hammer, but im not ready to hand it to him either yet. I want to be able to figure out if a bus is occuring. And, like all game, butter is hedging their bets and opinions to be opportune.
Adding more 0s doesn't make it any more convincing. It's also 10000% not post-hoc -- I analyzed the possible nightkills during the night exactly so I could avoid any post-hoc rationalization (I don't particularly care if anyone believes that or not, but that
was
my reasoning for it, so it's kinda funny to me that you're claiming otherwise). You most certainly could kill Greeting as scum, because otherwise you are pretty much locked in to a vote on him. You already basically said you were going to camp there. If you don't think that's a viable miselim (I don't think it really was), killing him gives you way more flexibility, since now you can easily vote anyone and play a more active role in the endgame, regardless of your partner. I think it especially makes sense if your partner is catboi or cape, since it allows you to easily push for Dunn. Any team without you on it, however, would be much more inclined to leave Greeting alive, because if you do just lock your vote on Greeting as town, the game is over.

I'm not really focused on you at all, I'm more concerned about catboi and dunn. I'm already pretty sure that you're the partner of whichever of them is scum. That's not hedging. I'm unsure between dunn and catboi, and trying to work that out.

Who do you think is mafia?

I'm like the least a active person in this endgame right now, mostly because of work (phone posting). And I haven't made a push on anyone. I already said I need to reevaluate everyone but now the dynamic is obviously Dunn vs catboi, and I haven't worked that out either. By calling me the partner you're either betting the game on cape being town or you're scum yourself. And since you never previously voiced suspicion on me until today I do consider it focused AND telling. Like, you're just flat out calling me scum because greeting is dead despite the obvious fact that FMPOV, YOU could be scum who killed Greeting. So by refusing to even acknowledge I could be town, you've left me no choice but to try to work with cape, who I haven't town-read all game, to try and solve the catboi vs Dunn thing. I get a strong impression that you want to know where I'm leaning with respect to Dunn vs catboi because you want to know whether you'll have to bus or quickhammer. And I am definitely not ready to give you that option not am I ready to trust the game to Cape.

What you are accusing catboi of with respect to his suspicion on Dunn is exactly what you are doing to me and it's making me think you are scum.

ɀefiend · Post Post #729 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:37 am

In post 706, Cape90 wrote:
In post 695, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 659, butterchurn wrote:
In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.
I did not. I said that about Dunn. Very interesting that you mixed those up, though. Since before the kill even came in, I thought that only teams with you on them would kill Greeting. The change in opinion that I've had is that I see it could be possible for Dunn to be scum (specifically, with you), where previously I thought the kill only made sense if he were town.

In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:2) Do you think scum!me spends an entire day pushing Greeting instead of lazy sheeping on VOID, only to lazy-kill Greeting the following night?
Yes, obviously I do. I think Greeting is a bit of a weird kill no matter who the scumteam is, but clearly
someone
thought it was the best choice, and I think any team without you on it would be much less likely to opt for that route.
This is all post-hoc rationalization. I 1000% do not kill Greeting last night if I'm scum.

Your focus on me today is very telling.

I do not suspect Cape will hand me the hammer, but im not ready to hand it to him either yet. I want to be able to figure out if a bus is occuring. And, like all game, butter is hedging their bets and opinions to be opportune.
Where are you at with the whole catboi/zefiend thing?

You mean catboi/Dunn?

No idea. I thought I would be easily pulled towards scum!Dunn but with butter's behavior I am not sure AT ALL anymore. As the day goes on I must admit I am more comfortable with you hammering but as it stands I will NOT be voting before butter.

catboi · Post Post #730 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:21 pm

In post 729, ɀefiend wrote:No idea. I thought I would be easily pulled towards scum!Dunn but with butter's behavior I am not sure AT ALL anymore. As the day goes on I must admit I am more comfortable with you hammering but as it stands I will NOT be voting before butter.

Whys his behavior making you uncertain?

catboi · Post Post #731 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:55 pm

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:This wasn't a major point, but I don't think this is likely. Me, you, zefiend, and cape have claimed VT (Dunn has effectively claimed VT as well by thinking that void could be doctor, although I don't think he ever said it directly). If he were scum, then all of town just claimed VT. I don't see why town would lie on their claims here, so that would mean that we would be in Column C, with no doctor, and the scumteam would be aware of that since they wouldn't have a roleblocker.

...it hadn't actually occurred to me until this moment that there was no PR and scum would have known. Blunder on my part. Then he either faked it to look town, or ignored it knowing that my tunnel on void was beneficial to scum and if someone else got eliminated, it would benefit them.

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:Do you remember any example games where this happened? I would very much like to look at them, if so.

mea culpa: had heard secondhand he does that stuff, couldn't find any record of him quickhammering a town elim as scum though, don't have the patience to dig. Do have an example of him making an opportunist vote on a town wagon that he'd previously been avoiding. Think regardless of player type your argument here is veering into "too scummy to be scum" territory, which is a logical fallacy.

Cape90 · Post Post #732 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:57 pm

In post 729, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 706, Cape90 wrote:
In post 695, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 659, butterchurn wrote:
In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.
I did not. I said that about Dunn. Very interesting that you mixed those up, though. Since before the kill even came in, I thought that only teams with you on them would kill Greeting. The change in opinion that I've had is that I see it could be possible for Dunn to be scum (specifically, with you), where previously I thought the kill only made sense if he were town.

In post 658, ɀefiend wrote:2) Do you think scum!me spends an entire day pushing Greeting instead of lazy sheeping on VOID, only to lazy-kill Greeting the following night?
Yes, obviously I do. I think Greeting is a bit of a weird kill no matter who the scumteam is, but clearly
someone
thought it was the best choice, and I think any team without you on it would be much less likely to opt for that route.
This is all post-hoc rationalization. I 1000% do not kill Greeting last night if I'm scum.

Your focus on me today is very telling.

I do not suspect Cape will hand me the hammer, but im not ready to hand it to him either yet. I want to be able to figure out if a bus is occuring. And, like all game, butter is hedging their bets and opinions to be opportune.
Where are you at with the whole catboi/zefiend thing?
You mean catboi/Dunn?

No idea. I thought I would be easily pulled towards scum!Dunn but with butter's behavior I am not sure AT ALL anymore. As the day goes on I must admit I am more comfortable with you hammering but as it stands I will NOT be voting before butter.

Yes my apologies, I guess when I am being driven, my thoughts don't like to work.
If it is fine with you, I am not comfortable with picking sides right now here and want to think it over some more. I found 718, 721 - 723 too all be towny from catboi. I kinda want Dunn to like, come here, I have been waiting for him

catboi · Post Post #733 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:02 pm

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:I was referring to before that post, so no, I'm not distorting the timeline. I'm aware that you likely did not want things to move on void that fast regardless of your alignment. And if you didn't have him as a strong suspect, then that explains why you didn't push hard for him, although I still would expect you to look into him further earlier in the day when he had 2 votes from Greeting and cape.

What, exactly, is there for me to "look further into"? I questioned him briefly to try to get him to explain his tances, felt it inconclusive, and moved on. I did not feel particularly inspired to ask more and didn't have much to work with. I wasn't going to compromise and vote him up too early into the day.

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:Because I don't really trust my ability to read his responses or reactions. If you haven't noticed, I've had very poor reads this game (suspicions and votes on 3 of the 4 confirmed town), which is why I entered the day planning to approach things differently. And it's not like I'm ignoring him, I gave you each equal weight while I was rereading, I just don't really have specific questions for him. From my perspective, the only question is which of you or dunn is scum. I feel like I'm learning more from this than I would be if I took a different approach.

You have simultaneously criticized me for not "looking further into" Dunnstral while not having anything to ask him yourself.

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:Do you mean with not known/void? When he voted cape, there were 2 votes on Greeting, and 1 each on zefiend, dunn, and void. I assume you meant that cape fits into the pushing back against people who were pushing him category, but he suspected cape before cape suspected him.

False. Cape voted for Dunn in 403, and while Dunn said he disagreed with my townread of cape in 378, he didn't begin pushing back in earnest until Cape had him as a scumread.

catboi · Post Post #734 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:02 pm

In post 727, butterchurn wrote:Also, I know I'm pushing you a lot, but understand my perspective -- yesterDay early I was fairly convinced of Greeting being scum, and for the most part, you talked me out of it. Once I had come around on Greeting, I was feeling a lot of doubt in my own scumreads and suspicions, and you defending Greeting had me townreading you. So I decided to put some more trust in the direction you were heading instead. That backfired pretty badly. It makes me pretty hesitant to follow along with you again, because I REALLY don't want to make that mistake twice, and so I want to make sure I'm doing my due diligence and considering all possibilities first.

That seems a pretty drastic overreaction. Part of the game as town is being wrong. It's not to say I wouldn't have pushed void as scum, necessarily, but almost every town player, even particularly good ones, are frequently wrong on their scumreads (I am not particularly good town player, as I have repeatedly emphasized). I had precisely one scumread I was pushing for most of the game, which turned out to be incorrect. Why does that make me more untrustworthy relative to anyone else who's been incorrect? I understand skepticism and due caution at this stage of the game is warranted but it feels like you've put an unusual level of attention toward me.

Dunnstral · Post Post #735 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:09 pm

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:
In post 721, catboi wrote:As scum dunn lurks hard and akes that kind of play because he knows people will let him get away with it.
Do you remember any example games where this happened? I would very much like to look at them, if so.

Spoiler:

catboi · Post Post #736 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:19 pm

You were decidedly lurky in chromatic ascenscion

catboi · Post Post #737 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:23 pm

But I also think it's not

that

significant a point

butterchurn · Post Post #738 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:24 pm

In post 731, catboi wrote:...it hadn't actually occurred to me until this moment that there was no PR and scum would have known. Blunder on my part. Then he either faked it to look town, or ignored it knowing that my tunnel on void was beneficial to scum and if someone else got eliminated, it would benefit them.

Seems like a bit of a stretch to me that you would get that wrong as scum intentionally for the purposes of appearing town that hasn't thought things through carefully, or attempt to lie about it, so my instinct here is to read you more town for this.

In post 731, catboi wrote:mea culpa: had heard secondhand he does that stuff, couldn't find any record of him quickhammering a town elim as scum though, don't have the patience to dig. Do have an example of him making an opportunist vote on a town wagon that he'd previously been avoiding. Think regardless of player type your argument here is veering into "too scummy to be scum" territory, which is a logical fallacy.

I'll look a bit as well. And I think I lean towards agreeing with the last point here, I may have just been overthinking.

In post 733, catboi wrote: What, exactly, is there for me to "look further into"? I questioned him briefly to try to get him to explain his tances, felt it inconclusive, and moved on. I did not feel particularly inspired to ask more and didn't have much to work with. I wasn't going to compromise and vote him up too early into the day.

In post 726, butterchurn wrote:Because I don't really trust my ability to read his responses or reactions. If you haven't noticed, I've had very poor reads this game (suspicions and votes on 3 of the 4 confirmed town), which is why I entered the day planning to approach things differently. And it's not like I'm ignoring him, I gave you each equal weight while I was rereading, I just don't really have specific questions for him. From my perspective, the only question is which of you or dunn is scum. I feel like I'm learning more from this than I would be if I took a different approach.
You have simultaneously criticized me for not "looking further into" Dunnstral while not having anything to ask him yourself.

Fair enough. I think the context is different, but regardless, not particularly interested in pursuing this line any further.

In post 733, catboi wrote:False. Cape voted for Dunn in 403, and while Dunn said he disagreed with my townread of cape in 378, he didn't begin pushing back in earnest until Cape had him as a scumread.

I was referring to 222, but I suppose that isn't a huge amount of suspicion.

In post 734, catboi wrote:That seems a pretty drastic overreaction. Part of the game as town is being wrong. It's not to say I wouldn't have pushed void as scum, necessarily, but almost every town player, even particularly good ones, are frequently wrong on their scumreads (I am not particularly good town player, as I have repeatedly emphasized). I had precisely one scumread I was pushing for most of the game, which turned out to be incorrect. Why does that make me more untrustworthy relative to anyone else who's been incorrect? I understand skepticism and due caution at this stage of the game is warranted but it feels like you've put an unusual level of attention toward me.

It probably is. For most of the day, though, I was leaning towards the scumteam being you and zefiend, so I think it makes sense to be questioning you. And I think that doing so has accomplished my goal of getting a better read and better understanding of things and continuing to think things through, and I'm now leaning the other direction.

catboi · Post Post #739 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:34 pm

For what it's worth, a significant chunk of experienced players will fake townslips where they pretend to forget things about the the setup or the flipped players in order to get townread.

It's not really in my wheelhouse to do so, because I just don't think about that sort of stuff, although you can't really take my word for it while we're in this game. But it is something to be wary of.

butterchurn · Post Post #740 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:51 pm

I'm aware people do that, I just think it seems unlikely in this scenario.

catboi · Post Post #741 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:42 pm

I did ponder the question of who dunn's partner is, because my brain needs something to work on and I can only argue with people about him for so long. I don't really feel confident in an answer at all, though.

catboi · Post Post #742 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:36 pm

I suppose I'll just stream of consciousness off the top of my head, at the risk of it backfiring on me.

butterchurn's play today has pinged me pretty hard - not just in terms of him arguing with me but smaller things he's done, seemingly trying to get on my good side earlier in the day, wanting to direct the vote to zefiend. His read on Dunn throughout the game was fairly hinky, he kept trying to give him a townread for fairly strained reasoning. But I'm also biased against people whose reasoning irritates me, and I tend to get unreasonably worked up over it. Had a few such instances of that where I tunneled another player for not seeing eye to eye. In general prior to this day phase I'd been concerned he'd be playing the sort of scum game an experienced player with no meta onsite could get away with - a lot of nice looking words but overly cautious with no real pressure anywhere, an overly cautious game where his main concern is looking good. I haven't investigated to see whether that holds up.

does cape fit the profile? theoretically that sort of back and forth distancing between two teammates isn't really impossible and in these situations I get paranoid of it but I don't see why if he was distancing from Dunn all game that he'd abandon it at this moment - seems it'd be unnecessary when he'd look better

zefiend calling out butterchurn for fencesitting while pointedly doing so himself is...a look. I sort of bought his insistence he wouldn't kill greeting although that's very flimsy. In a lot of ways his cases felt like he was force fitting arguments and I found his engagement with the game suspicious on multiple occasions. Dunn slightly defended him while zefiend just slapped dunn with an uncertain/don't know read, which is

so cliche

i almost doubt whether it could truly come from a teammate. His play today probably fits the stereotypical scum profile, though, I admit.

So that's why I'm left uncertain. Hopefully this makes some sense, I'm not going to proofread it~

fferyllt · Post Post #743 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:23 pm

Vote Count 3-4

catboi

(1): Dunnstral

Dunnstral

(1): catboi

Not Voting

(3): Cape90, ɀefiend, butterchurn

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline: January 18, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-01-17 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

butterchurn · Post Post #744 (ISO) » Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:03 pm

In post 742, catboi wrote:seemingly trying to get on my good side earlier in the day, wanting to direct the vote to zefiend.

Curious where you felt like this was the case. I guess what's in my head is not always what ends up in the thread, but from start of Day until fairly recently I was leaning scum on you (at some points more so, and at some points less so) and had little to no expectation of working together with you being very likely. Although I do remember at one point I wanted to see what you would do if there seemed to be a possible zefiend elim, because I didn't think town-you was particularly likely to switch off your suspicion of Dunn and onto zefiend. If you had, or if you had started trying to go along with me, I likely would have found that questionable, and would have been paranoid about you bussing in a potential you/zefiend scumteam. But I didn't think I really did much with that, because once Dunn cased you, a cross seemed pretty inevitable. Maybe that's what you were picking up, though.

Also, for what it's worth, I don't think I was ever townreading Dunn the way you think I was. The only townlean I had on him was because I didn't think the Greeting kill made sense for him. Not understanding why scum!dunn would do something is vastly different from giving him a townread for it, in my book at least. I can understand how it would look that way from your perspective, though. And naturally, when I'm looking at things from a perspective of you being mafia, that implies Dunn as town for me, even though I wasn't by any means townreading him in isolation.

catboi · Post Post #745 (ISO) » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:05 am

In post 614, butterchurn wrote:
In post 607, catboi wrote:Eh. Don't know. If I had ruled out the actual team they might want to keep me alive.
Initial read of this is that it has me leaning slightly more town, since this is my thought process as well. I think scum you could easily stick to one of the teams you had laid out earlier. Doesn't hurt to express doubt, though, so eh.

This line in particular had me scratching my had because it had that sort of vague buddying feel that tends to be how scum play around me in late game, at a moment I was potentially opening myself up to a zefiend vote. The reasoning was very puzzling to me because I could easily see someone interpreting my backpedal on my analysis from the day as a way of keeping my options open, but you somehow concluded it was +town, which didn't really make sense to me

catboi · Post Post #746 (ISO) » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:15 am

In post 239, butterchurn wrote:
In post 232, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 223, butterchurn wrote:I like both of those posts for the most part. I also felt questionable about cape's latest, and it appearing potentially opportunistic is a good point that I hadn't considered.
Was leaning towards suspicion with GeorgeBailey, now trending slightly the other direction
.

That vote puts NK15 at E-1, correct?
Because of Dunn's intro or because of something else?
Yes, from the two posts he made. GeorgeBailey seemed generally useless at best, and low-effort mafia at worst.
Dunn's first posts on their own seemed insightful and I generally agreed with them, which to me is a much more positive sign for that slot's alignment.
It's not much content so it's not a strong lean at all, but essentially his posts took him from "still suspicious here" to "willing to give this a relatively fresh slate".

In post 377, butterchurn wrote:Somewhat suspicious of Greeting already from what I mentioned in 243 and 245. I would think that scum currently would be pretty excited due to the cop kill and generally being at an advantage at the moment, so I was thinking that at least one of them would be posting early and would want to control the narrative of things from the start of the day. Cape and greeting's posting early today both fit that bill, to some extent. Also still never was particularly satisfied by cape's answer to my line of questioning in 175, especially now that we know notscience was town. Would not be surprised for town catboi to be somewhat discouraged, feeling relatively neutral there.

Scum could also aim to lay low here.
Would like to hear more from dunnstral especially, since his first post he's given a few opinions but with little to back them up.

In post 382, butterchurn wrote:Forgot to conclude -- both of those feel like patterns of how I would expect scum to interact with this wagon. zefiend ignoring it is also strange, but I think it's less strange knowing that NK was town -- feels almost too obvious to me for scum to completely ignore a wagon on town that is dominating the discussion. catboi felt relatively consistent on his thoughts on it, which could go either way. void didn't say much, but a lot of his thoughts aligned with my own, so... shrug. dunn neutral, both readings are plausible.

In post 401, butterchurn wrote:
In post 396, Greeting wrote: What do you think of:
catboi
,
Dunnstral
and
ɀefiend
, three players I mentioned earlier?
Not very firm reads on any of them.

-
Slight townlean on dunn, as almost everything he's said has made sense to me and seems well-reasoned. Not enough posts to have a strong feeling, but nothing has made me suspicious as of yet.

- zefiend I feel like has just not really been on my radar for whatever reason. I've re-read him a couple times to try to get a read, and it just feels like we're on different wavelengths. My instinct is to find that suspicious, but the arguments against him don't convince me much. He's said a few things I agree with, and a few things that that just seem strange but not particularly AI.
- catboi I'm somewhat conflicted on. In general I would say slightly leaning town, but there's been a couple things that give me pause, and his reads don't align with mine at all.

In post 515, butterchurn wrote:
In post 473, Dunnstral wrote:I don't think whether zefiend is technically a newbie or not really matters as much as how comfortable they are with the game. (The newbie rules are kind of wonky now that it's been brought up, though).

I think Cape is the better vote right now, I don't see the 'conviction', I thought they were scummy day 1, and I don't think their arguments make sense on day 2.

VOTE: Cape90
Dunn, your suspicions at this time (as best as I can gather) included Greeting, Cape, and Void. What made you decide Cape was the "better vote" out of those 3?

In post 567, butterchurn wrote:
Dunn would probably be my second choice, FWIW.
Have come around somewhat on both cape and Greeting, moreso on cape. Still planning to take a look at potential pairings as well tomorrow, although now some of it will be somewhat redundant.

In post 598, butterchurn wrote:Brief conclusions: Leaning town on dunn. My gut is much more conflicted, but I'm making the call not to trust it right now since it's been wrong so far. If I were to vote right now, it would probably be for zefiend. I mostly townread him before this, but he looks worse knowing Greeting was town. The question is, would scum know that killing Greeting makes him look worse?

Maybe not consistently but really your ISO looks like how I'd expect a partner to talk about dunn, you townlean him for very vague reasons early on ("insightful", "makes sense") and never really investigate much, ask him to do more but remain neutral, mention him as a secondary suspect but only when voting void, and then at the start of the day your stance suddenly flips back to leaning town on him. I don't get the sense there's much consideration of whether or not he could be scum.

catboi · Post Post #747 (ISO) » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:25 am

Oh, I just thought to check GeorgeBailey's ISO and I don't think him and cape is a thing based on the early game, george jumped on the early suspicion of cape, he did distance/bus in Micro 1026, but it was significantly later in the phase, at a time when the scum felt like they were being POE'd and didn't have much in the way of options. I don't think his early jump on cape is similar to that.

butterchurn · Post Post #748 (ISO) » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:57 am

In post 745, catboi wrote:The reasoning was very puzzling to me because I could easily see someone interpreting my backpedal on my analysis from the day as a way of keeping my options open, but you somehow concluded it was +town, which didn't really make sense to me

Shrug. Still makes sense to me, I stand by it. Wasn't a huge thing though, on a scale of 1 to 10 of suspicion that probably took you from like a 7.5 to a 7. That was around the point I was talking about, though, where I was curious to see if you would consider a switch to zefiend. Just not for the reasons that you're reading from it. Which, I know, I don't really expect you to just accept that, but I might as well explain my thought process.

In post 746, catboi wrote:I don't get the sense there's much consideration of whether or not he could be scum.

This is, to a certain extent, regrettably accurate. I definitely was considering it, but I wasn't really focusing on it. I'm historically pretty bad at reading people who don't post much, which probably is only more reason for me to focus on them even more, but instead usually means I mostly watch them from afar, and put them in the "let's come back to this later" bucket. When I do have reads, I usually don't know how to put them into words, or support them with evidence from the thread. It's a major weakness in my town game; I inevitably end up focusing more on the people who post more. I think if you pulled out my positions on zefiend from the first two Days, it would look fairly similar. And now I'm thinking that the mafia team are two of the lowest post count people in the game, so. Lessons for next time, I guess.

Also, I'm obviously biased, but if I were a scum partner to Dunn, I don't see any value for me to approach toDay the way that I have. Dunn felt like all but a foregone conclusion to be eliminated here, especially after on the surface-level, a Greeting kill will look bad for him to a lot of people. As town, foregone conclusions in ELo are very scary, and make me paranoid. My instinct is to run away from them, or at least be very wary. But as scum, I would absolutely just want to jump on Dunn for his hammer and bus him, and deal with the rest later. Even if for some reason I decided not to do that, I probably would have just kept tunneling on you, and Cape likely would have joined in. As town though, I was still doubting, and wanted to hear more from you. I don't see any reason why, after all this, you think I would then start to turn back to Dunn if I were scum. It would just be making the game way harder for myself for no real benefit. Instead, it's just the somewhat roundabout way in which my suspicions evolved.

catboi · Post Post #749 (ISO) » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:41 am

Well, I'm just running through the thoughts in my head at this point in time because I've nothing else to do with cape and zefiend not being active at all.

As it is I'm not entirely sold, because, as far as hedging their bets on Dunn,

that's what literally everyone was doing

at the start of this day phase, which I found altogether bewildering, but clearly they didn't feel any risk of blowback there. Hypothetically in this situation as scum outside the cross vote, I don't think it's unreasonable to try to read the room and take whatever stance you feel is more likely to win at the moment rather than pressing for it yourself. At any rate, easy to posture about these things. But like I said, I do not feel strongly confident about this at all.

Can you explain to me what things dunn posted you thought were insightful/made sense?