CONTROL - GAME OVER!

[Ircher]

First
VOTE: MUSH

[Ircher]

VOTE: Bell

[Ircher]

Pray tell me Mr. Bell, what secrets are you hiding?

[Ircher]

Look if you didn't want to get burned down early then you should've used your noggin before you fluffposted, now its too late and that's your problem not mine

Can you explain how this is scum indicative for Cephrir? I'm not familiar with his meta.

For actively seeking fun. It reads to me like you drew scum, hated it, and are now looking for ways to make your own fun.

This seems really reachy. A lot of people mess around during the beginning of a game. How is this scum-indicative for Cephrir specifically and not for anyone else?

[Ircher]

bell is town, but i don't expect any points for that brain blast

Nah, it's too early to make that read.

[Ircher]

If it were a general comment, then I’d be even less inclined to believe it. My assumption is there must be some truth to it, but it cannot be such in the general sense.

[Ircher]

VOTE: MUSHSHAGANA

[Ircher]

NorwegianBoy brings up a good point. I still like my current vote.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Bell

I think moving here will provide interesting results.

I think you should move back to MUSH.

[Ircher]

But, maybe I'm being a little harsh given how slow the game is.

It's been 3ish hours and about 100 posts. That's not a slow game.

Random Note: How familiar are you with LLD?

~Mama

Considering the games I've played recently, this pace is extremely slow to me.

Quite, why?

Count it as a blessing then.

[Ircher]

Yes. Stop taking pot shots at everyone.

[Ircher]

I have never seen Mush this scummy ever. Will explain more later.

-nornor

I'm gonna pre-empt it

It's gonna be about me not wallposting, which is just the playstyle change I was talking about from jump

OR

It's gonna be about my change in typing style which is because there's a different fuckin person moving the fingers, gee willikers, we're trying to put different people in charge of the body sometimes over here

OR

It's gonna be both

And in case it's "OH, following other people" I was the first person to scumread Ircher TRY AGAIN LATER LOL

How about your fallacious reasoning this game?

[Ircher]

Mush seems tonally town

Hard disagree.

[Ircher]

VOTE: MUSHSHAGANA

[Ircher]

more votes on MUSH plz

[Ircher]

I will perhaps this evening; not right now. Your assumptions though for your initial reads are off the charts.

[Ircher]

*narrator voice* Greeting had not in fact read.

It's not obvious. Stop pretending it is.

[Ircher]

As promised, here are some examples of MUSH's fallacious logic.

The content of your post reads EXACTLY in theme with a specific part of Control, but its a part that wouldn't be very likely to come up in a green role PM. If you hadn't fluffposted without thinking through the consequences of your actions you might have been fine, but instead you fluffposted in a way that gave the game away, precisely because you didn't know what you were talking about. Sorry bud

According to MUSH, Cephrir is scum for 57 because it isn't likely to have come from a town role pm. Let me point out some of the various ways this argument is fallacious:

1: It presupposes that Cephrir is familiar with the source material. This is evidently false because in 57, Cephrir explicitly states he is not familiar with the source material. You may argue that it's scum indicative regardless, but there's nothing preventing someone with a town alignment who is unfamiliar with the source material from making the exact same post. While it may be true perhaps that a scum role pm may make such a post more likely (I wouldn't know as I don't know the source material), it is at best a marginal difference.

2: It also presupposes that Cephrir's role is directly related to the post at hand and that Cephrir pulled material from his role pm to make that post. There is no evidence in favor of this assumption; in fact, later posts highly suggest this is not the case as Cephrir denied MUSH's guess in 123.

The following two go together.

Ircher why do you think I'm making any claims about Cephrir specifically and not a general statement about anyone in the circumstances Cephrir finds himself in

Ceph and I have never played together, there is no meta being used here

I guess you're still scum. Great job bolstering my early hypothesis

MUSH's argument here is that I am scum at least in part because I misinterpreted one of MUSH's earlier posts as being a specific observation about Cephrir rather than a general observation. For reference, the post I misinterpreted was 63:

Look if you didn't want to get burned down early then you should've used your noggin before you fluffposted, now its too late and that's your problem not mine

I would like to point out that if you are reading chronologically (and thus haven't seen the elaboration in 80, then it is very easy to interpret this post as MUSH scum reading fluffposting in general. My assumption was since that in the general case, that does not equate scum, there must have been something specific between MUSH and Cephrir that led to Cephrir's post being scummy in MUSH's eyes. 70 does not contradict my initial assumption; in fact, it reinforced it. Finally, there was also Lady Lambdadelta's take in 71, and her take is in fact a meta read. These factors combined, my original assumption, while incorrect, was reasonable. The issue here is that MUSH is trying to twist this around and paint it as scum!me protecting scum!Cephrir. MUSH is completely ignoring the "how would town come to this assumption" and instead jumps straight to the conclusion that reinforces MUSH's own preexisting bias. The argument that I am scum for making an incorrect assumption is fallacious because it completely ignores all the other equally plausible scenario and instead picks the one that fits in the most with MUSH's narrative.

[Ircher]

Sorry, Ircher, that's not satisfactory.

Patience is a virtue.

Isn't that what meta is, though? Judgement of someone's play by how they played in other games, regardless of whether you've been in that game or not?

Yes. Unfortunately, some people take a very narrow-minded view of what constitutes meta which leads to confusion.

Say something townie or die.

Noraa has in fact said some townie things so far. Marginally so perhaps, but townie-indicative nonetheless.

Agree that my fakeviging is not AI, but noraa has to give you something...

I disagree. There's really only one reaction to a fake vig and that's "Why did you just do this?" Both scum and town are going to have the same reaction.

Man this does not make me feel better about Ceph. I feel ike you named 2 townies as town, pushed townie mush as scum and Ceph kind of stands otu.

I'm saying this read list is weird.

I don't think it's weird if the assumption is that MUSH is scum. The other reads pretty much fall into play after that. I know you disagree with that assumption, but it's still a valid one to make.

uhh why?

Because I scumread it....

Ok, but point is. If Noraa was scum they would probably twist their emotions in a certain manipulative way.
And here it’s more like the: "i can’t believe you’ve done this" guy that just looks utterly betrayed.
I could just be totally wrong here, but that’s honestly what i feel.

Sure, but that is by no means conclusive. It is a point in Noraa's favor, but she needs more than just that for a full-fledged town read.

[Ircher]

For the record, this is bad modding as it has a direct influence on the game, namely?

I'm conftowning both LLD and Three Bears from it.

I agree it's (rather minor imo) mod influence, but this is just silly.

I hate the RVS analysis posts. They made my eyes glaze over and it just read as information-over-analysis to me. It's typically a town tell to me, but there's a thin line between actually town telling and just LAMIST serious analysis posts.

I don't understand. How are they, in this specific instance, not a town tell. What makes Greeting's posts different from the general case of information instead of analysis?

Like a scumslip doesn't have to be fuckin binary it can be on a sliding scale and tbh probably usually IS on a sliding scale

No. People on this site treat scum slips as meaning >99% chance of coming from scum, so it is effectively binary. If it isn't that confident an identifier, then a different term should be used (or perhaps no buzzwords at all).

So much confidence and putting up a whole readslist after so much meme-ing and fluff that was in this game?

This is unfortunately what mastina does at the beginning of the game. I wouldn't put much stock into its accuracy, but it's not alignment indicative for mastina.

I don't think LLD and Greeting are aligned because I town read one and scum read the other.

That seems circular to me. What are you town reading about Lady Lambdadelta?

That isn't what I said. Scum reading someone no matter what they say or do, and explicitly making it clear that that's what you're doing, isn't a real attempt at reading somebody.

That isn't what happened? I think Cephrir and Save the Dragons have done a good job outlining their reads on you and explaining why it makes you scum. I don't fully agree with the conclusions, but that doesn't discount that they have valid points. (My main qualm with immediately jumping to Roden scum here is that doubling down isn't solely a scum trait. Town do it often too. I know there are other aspects like the Greeting read, but I just don't feel it is definitive enough evidence towards scum!Roden.)

I always find it funny when previous scum buddies see my playstyle and thought process in detail, then see me act the complete opposite in another game and accuse me of being scum lol.

By funny I mean tiring.

Posts like these aren't helping your case, but on the flip-side, I would expect most scum to try to be more agreeable, so again, it's kinda net neutral.

[Ircher]

VOTE: MegAzumarill

[Ircher]

And I would like to provide mrs. logic with some emotional support with regard to your reasoning of me being unaligned with Lady Lambdadelta because she has been utterly violated. You have provided a thesis that both of us are unaligned and now you're backtracking from it and claiming that it's not what you meant. That's.. bad, but I'm not yet sure if it's scum indicative.

I'm not sure how I feel about Greeting basically piggybacking off of Cephrir's earlier argumebt. On one hand, it is a reasonable take and factual. On the other hand, it feels kind of busywork-ish to repeat it now when it is very much done and over with.

Mastina just has that town Mastina entrance, and i’d very much like people to explain why they think Mastina is being scummy here. Because they sound fucking DRUNK.

I don't think she is, but I don't think it's an unreasonable take because her playstyle at the start is just begging for people to scum read her as she pulls out reads from thin air.

roden's using ate "woe is me" and needling using words like "inane" to try and attack the points against him without actually refuting those points. it makes it look like they weren't legit points to begin with. instead of answering, he doubles down on this narrative.

how are people like "well i guess that could come from town"

Because townies have done this in the past. Have you ever played with Robbnva/Jake From State Farm before? He used to do this kind of stuff all the time regardless of alignment. To be clear here, I think it does come out as slightly +scum equity, but it is very marginal as townies are equally keen to double down when they are wrong.

galron town game is ez

I really don't get how you and others are coming to this conclusion so early. All I have seen from Galron is sheeping a vote for "no good reason", claim softing, and a bunch of other one liners that say very little. Let me clear here: I'm not actively scum reading Galron, but I see nothing that really rings out as town either.

Anyone else weirded out that LLD did an obvious fake vig on Noraa, Noraa took it to heart, and then LLD takes a break while Three Bears gets freebie town reads?

No because it is the weekend. A lot of people post less on the weekends (albeit I don't know if that is true for Lady Lambdadelta specifically.)

NAH not how it works

With this level of reasoning (as displayed here and elsewhere), I'm not putting much stock in Noraa's reads.
---
I will try to give a reads list tomorrow or Tuesday.

[Ircher]

like, sure there's nothing in meg's ISO, but could just be lost town? or is lost town not an option in yalls books?

It's certainly an option, but just being an option doesn't mean it's actually the case.

I can't really help you with your death tunnel at this point then.

I didn't think your initial posts and arguments were too scummy. As I mentioned before, I've seen plenty of stubborn town players that stick to their guns even when they are wrong. However, the continued focus on defending and arguing back in place of forming reads (that are not based entirely in OMGUS) strikes me as a tactic scum adopts. Not only is it distracting to the rest of the thread, it makes you look busy while in reality, you are just treading the same old ground again and again.

whereas if you just take 1 look at Arcade, Arcade screams maf...

I think that's just their style. I've played several games with Dunnstral both with him as town and as scum, and this seems pretty par for the course. They certainly could be scum, but it's hard to tell either way after you account for playstyle differences.

i wanna see ircher's readlist

I am still working on it unfortunately. I will have it by the end of Friday; I promise. You can lim me without hesitation if I don't follow through.

and Ircher I played a game with a LONG time ago.

It has indeed, back in 2016 for Newbie 1709. I'm glad to see you're still around!

[Ircher]

And your point is?

[Ircher]

Am I not supposed to defend myself when I'm being accused?

No, you don't always have to defend yourself against every accusation. Doing so takes up unnecessary space and is often not productive. In fact, it is generally better to provide more content in the form of reads than to keep defending yourself.

And at what point am I "treading the same ground again and again" when I'm not even the one bringing up those posts?

Let's see...

You ask Dragons in 1007 why he thinks you are scum when he has already explained multiple times in places like 560, 571, and 582. You are asking a player to explain their argument again for the one hundredth time when they had already explained it 99 other times. Your follow up in 1011, while it provides some insight into why you think Dragon's read of you is flawed, sticks mostly to the same tired argument where you reduce it to "I'm guilty if I do, and I am guilty if I don't," like you did in 591.

Also claiming OMGUS is lazy and not even factual because I town read two

This is not the impression I got when reading your posts, though you are right that your reads have shifted towards town on them in your recent posts. My point made in the context of your previous posts like 578 where you call Dragons's approach to reading you "dishonest" and in 598 where you mention Cephrir "like

making [his] life difficult". I admit, you do in the same post say that Dragons is town, but it's easy to glaze over when you spend so much time arguing back and forth. It suggests to me that you believe what is being argued is incorrect (which we agree is your stance), and that in turn implies that you scum read the people making the argument (because if you town read them, there's no point in continuing to argue; you argue to show an argument is flawed and that the person making it is not doing so with honest (read "townie") intentions).

scum roden is trying to shake people off by being pleasant. There's a certain amount of like jokey stuff in there.
town roden is just like what the fuck why are your reasons shit.

this is town roden. im pretty certain of it.

I feel this is incredibly easy to manipulate. It makes sense from a motivation standpoint, but I would be wary of trying to read a slot on this alone.

besides arcade and ircher as well

What is the point of asking if you are just going to exclude the thread's top scum reads? It would be more direct just to ask for a reads list.

All I want is for you to explain the thinking there.

This has been asked so many times before, and Roden made it clear he wasn't going to give a straight answer to this. There was no need to ask for the sixteenth time.

Val...I did explain it. I've explained it several times now. I'm not going to do it again.

No, you explained it with circular reasoning and then countered any attempts to extract an honest answer with "I already explained/I didn't use circular reasoning" when you hadn't explained clearly. Your response in 1011 is clear evidence of such; you finally acknowledge that you did try to use circular reasoning, but you still hadn't addressed the original point even with that acknowledgement.

I've already explained that it isn't. I'm not going to explain yet again to you or anyone else.

Where? I looked at your ISO, and it seems to me that it's only Roden's Greeting and LLD read that caught your attention. Sure, that doesn't imply that it's the only thing that caught your attention, but it also doesn't imply that something else also grabbed your attention with regards to Roden. (In 1215, you give a detailed explanation of why you are interested in Roden answering it, but you don't actually mention or hint at there being other reasons you are interested in Roden.)

weird how few votes on roden despite people arguing 4 it so loudly

I find this comment weird as I only saw a few loud voices about Roden, but just because you are dismantling a poorly-argued argument doesn't imply you scum read that slot. Others have made passing comments, but that doesn't really count as "loud".

Interesting that I have to ISO both of us, and in under two minutes I can find the answer you're looking for while proving your answer doesn't exist.

What you just proved is that you in fact did not answer the question as evidenced by Dragon's last response to you. Also, it's probably easy for you to find since you know what you're looking for (as you made the posts in questions). The rest of us do not have that luxury.

At that's the last time we will have that discussion.
Call it scummy. Go on. I dare you.

that's scummy!

(No additional comment needed.)

Yeah Val is scum. Seeing what Mama and Baby bears think.

-- The Pinkinator.

I think your portrayal of the ISO is pretty accurate, but once again like with Roden before, I have trouble jumping straight to the conclusion. That is, the stubbornness could come (and in all honestly, is more likely to come) from stubborn town rather than caught scum that doesn't want to back out. What is scum Val gaining with this approach other than Roden's ire?

i was expecting the game to be paced a little faster but yeah i'm having fun

No, the pacing was perfect at about 5-8 pages a day. 10-15 pages like what happened today is too many for those of us who aren't checking 24/7.

Read to the bottom of page 57.

[Ircher]

Question Ircher, I feel kind of like you're ignoring me.
Are you trying to get me miseliminated later?

You haven't stood out to me much at all. So yes, I am in a sense ignoring you.

[Ircher]

Your question is rhetorical in nature. I don't see a need to answer it directly.

[Ircher]

If you insist, my read on you is basically null with a twinge of town based on the activity tell, which I don't put too much stock in because it is easily manipulated. Interpret that as you wish.

[Ircher]

You're still in the top half of posters. There are a lot of loud posters in this player list, so it's hard to tell who is dipping it out due to the noise. (To be clear here, being "loud" isn't an issue by itself. It just makes it harder to keep track of the quieter slots.)

[Ircher]

like you did a fake vig big whoop you could have done that as scum or town

Redacted.

I was the one who led the Ircher push initially and then came back from being sick and reinvigorated ircher wagon again.

I'll have to check the first part, but the second is untrue. Andante is the one who caused the recent switch back towards me in 1463. Post 1458 doesn't really count. I didn't see anyone express a real interest in shifting votes immediately after.

haven't read a single thing from you about your Ircher stuff... just saying..

This is true of pretty much the entire wagon.

VOTE: LLD

This isn't a good vote. LLD I think had a pretty good early game before they became sick. While their current argument is rather poor form, it seems more a personality thing than anything and isn't particularly alignment indicative.

it's not a game of who has the loudest voice

In theory, perhaps. In practice... Nah, the loudest voices always exert the most power.

Norwee - Town
LLD - Null
Mastina - Scum

I'm not impressed.

i have some reads

i have read the game

The question asked, while posed as a binary question, did not expect a binary response. This tells us nothing about your current thoughts and state of mind.

I'd prefer the elim to be the Meg slot but the longer we go without ircher fighting the push on him the less willing I am to go against the grain here.

I won't be on the wagon though regardless.

What is there to fight? Maybe one or two people have expressed a reason for scum reading that goes beyond "Their ISO looks scummy." There's nothing to engage.

Over all participation has been nothing like what i expected (at least one half) of this hydra to contribute lol

What did you expect from them? Their participation levels seems inline with what I've seen in the past; maybe a bit on the lower side, but I don't think it is that significant of a difference.

this might be meta gaming, but i really really don't think that sir cakes would play into a S/S gambit in the thread

Why? As the moderator of the game (which isn't bastard), he should be impartial and avoid exerting undue influence on the game. That means he shouldn't favor town gambits over scum gambits. (I realize mods are not perfect, but I don't really see how you can come to the conclusion that it is /never/ S v. S based on SirCakez stepping in.)

I’m not sure how to process that Ircher is mostly posting about boring irrelevant stuff when they are the main wagon,

1: I read chronologically. Sometimes I read the current page as well, but you shouldn't count on it.
2: As mentioned above, there is nothing to actually engage content-wise.
3: Engaging your own wagon isn't always the most productive thing. We've seen this already multiple times in this game (albeit not with actual votes, but it's the same thing pretty much.)

i kinda wish they would respond to their on wagon and state if they think there’s scum there, or come up with an strong townread.

The wagon is full of sheep and few shepherds. There is certainly scum on it, but I don't think it's worth my time figuring out who since it's going to be clouded by my own knowledge that I am town.

Read to the bottom of page 68.

[Ircher]

I am Helen Marshall, a non-consecutive night friendly neighbor.

[Ircher]

I'm not sure I understand Cephrir. SirCakez said the locking of the thread was a bit of trolling, presumably to lend a bit of credibility to the idea LLD had legitimately dayvigged the bears. The other post wasn't mentioned, and would not do that. I assume therefore, that was legitimate and intended.

Why was this your focus on conversation? Anyway, if you want my take on it (which you probably don't but are getting anyway), I would presume that SirCakez made the first post when he unlocked the thread after locking it so people knew that he had seen the fake day vig shot. The latter post was meant to reinforce that it wasn't a real day vig, and he was simply trolling.

ok im finally here but i dont feel like reading up so i'll just try to keep up from here (PROBABLY WONT HAPPEN) but i'll try.
ALSO HECK YES for dunnstral repping in on main. i'll have a read on that slot soon i think

I have to ask, how does this change things for your ability to read the slot? My impression has been that Dunnstral made the majority of posts prior, so I don't see how Dunnstral replacing on his main changes things.

also, 1) irchers play is crap, 2) the reads are crap, 3) the scumhunting isnt fuckin there, the 4) wagon fucking keeps stalling despite no apparent resistance right at 5-6 votes, etc...

1) You should elaborate. We've (and by we, I mean the rest of the thread) already established that my quote walls style is NAI.
2) Okay, sure. I haven't presented much in terms of reads. Who would you like me to elaborate on?
3) Provide evidence.
4) This isn't a reason to scum read a player. Voting is way too volatile for this to be reliable.

also ircher is the reason me and STD exited RVS,

And how does that mean anything? I already laid out how one of your arguments for scum me was completely flawed. You've been stuck on this one read since pregame, and everything you've done has been in relation to it. You aren't scumhunting. You are cruising on an early read that you have failed (and continue to fail) to elaborate on substantively. The only reason I'm not voting you right now is that there is zero interest (which astounds me).

Btw sorry I'm not doing much.

I've noticed this, and I think it's scum indicative for you. You seem much less engaged than when you are town.

Ircher- I haven't liked any of his posts. For the most part my eyes just glaze over when trying to read them, long wall posts segmented by quotes from multiple people just comes off as muddling to me.

This is not a legitimate reason to scum read me.

The shade towards me for defending myself reads as a soft defense for himself for not engaging with people who are scum casing him.

I wasn't scum reading you for defending yourself; I was scum reading you for defending yourself at the exclusion of pretty much everything else. That point still hasn't changed.

However I will add that his recent attempt to discredit the town reads on LLD weirdly coincides with Ircher's attempt to do the same.

Citation needed. I've been mildly town reading Lambdadelta for the majority of the game. Granted, I haven't expressed that too explicitly, but I don't recall expressing the opposite either (except perhaps very early game when MUSH and Lambdadelta were pushing Cephrir).

Read to bottom of page 75.

[Ircher]

In fact, if anyone is interested in looking over Bell's iso, they have spent the last ~7 real life days only pushing on two of the lurkiest slots in the game and throwing out shallow questions to look like they're doing something.

This is a good point. I hope Bell responded/explained why that's his approach (though I can hazard a guess).

I am, however, willing to compromise.

I have had no reason to townread Ircher, but wasn't convinced the lack of "on-pointness" that mastina described was AI at the early stage it was raised, and thought it better to wait and see if things improved.

They haven't, but my reads on some of the characters that jumped on the wagon while I was waiting gave me pause.

I don't like this post from Val because he is trying really hard here to disassociate himself from my wagon while at the same time joining. It would be one thing if he was simply "I'm compromising here; I'm not confident he will flip scum, but I will join in the best interests of the town." Instead, he is giving off a message along the lines of "Here are a hundred reasons why I haven't joined this wagon yet and why I'm still reluctant to join, but I'm going to join anyway. When this flips green, you shall absolve me of any guilt." This gives me the impression of scum that wanted my wagon to succeed, but that also didn't want to get their hands dirty.

Does Ircher always only talk in giant quote essays? these things are painful to read

No, but when it's the primary method. It also doesn't help that I'm currently behind.

like, my LLD vote was a joke, and I feel like people actually reading would've seen that?

Nope. I in fact recall (perhaps wrongly as I'm not going to check, but the point remains nonetheless) that at least one other person didn't take it as a joke and questioned/said something about it at the time.

I guess Dunn lives till tomorrow, but I'm not a fan of this "I only talk in quote essays cause I'm catching up" there's like no actual live interactions with anyone

I am pretty consistent in when I'm available; namely, I am here after 10 pm and until about midnight eastern time. You can ask me a question during that time frame, and I will usually acknowledge it like I did when Bell asked me if I was ignoring him earlier. I may miss it though if it gets buried by a new page, but you can certainly quote it.

thewayitends is probably scum simply because in a game that seems fixated on running up lurkers his name has not come up which suggests scum are more interested in pushing other targets

Perhaps. Both they and their original had and continue to have zero presence in the game. Also, I think Meg was the only major wagon formed on a "lurker" slot.

this a hot take
scum are only pushing lurkers
makes lurker push
A+ self callout

This is a rather major misreading of catboi's post.

I would like to see something in the way of meaningful reads from Ircher still.

I think the cliff notes were something like:

MUSH --- Scum
Lambdadelta --- Town
Dunnstral --- Null
Bears --- Maybe town?
Roden --- Neutral but probably town on net
Val --- Scum
mastina --- Scum for low activity
Bell --- Null
Greeting --- Town

I have more reads, but I want to take some time to do ISOs. I've been lacking the time though. I guess this doesn't count as meaningful reads, but maybe it gives you and others a better idea of where I am at.

no gallon literally just voted ircher

Fwiw, Galron I think misread my claim.

Read to the bottom of page 86.

[Ircher]

I targeted catboi last night. Hopefully they'll confirm receipt in their next message.

[Ircher]

Flea, it's okay that uou're upset about it, but this is just noise at this point.

[Ircher]

Well that's strange.

[Ircher]

I mean, the most plausible is I got blocked. What is strange is why someone felt the need to block me here.
The other theory is catboi is scum and trying to get me mislimmed, but I targeted catboi specifically because I was town reading the slot and didn't think they would be killed.

[Ircher]

VOTE: mastina

[Ircher]

I really hate irchers response…

Richer have you ever been a friendly neighbor in a past game

Over 5 years ago is the last time I've drawn the role according to my records. I really don't see a point on dwelling on the issue. Nothing I say will convince people otherwise, and the cause is self-evident from my point-of-view. What kind of response would you have expected?

[Ircher]

Why did you figure catboi was unlikley to be killed?

Greeting had a lot of "hot takes" if I recall correctly. That gives scum ammunition to setup a mislim there down the road, so catboi wouldn't be a high priority kill. People like Dragons, Cephrir, and Lambdadelta would be more likely kills because they have more control of the game state and are widely seen as town by everyone.

[Ircher]

Reads:

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%): Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Save the Dragons (+82%): They just seem town to me. No real concerns or comments.

Cephrir (+76%): I think he has consistently been town this whole game.

Lady Lambdadelta (+74%): I feel the way she initially pushed Cephrir and the progression of her read on me makes much more sense and felt more genuine than MUSH did in either respect. She has been lacking in presence some, but that's really my only concern.

Neutral Town

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

catboi (+49%): I thought Greeting was town. I would have to ISO them to point out the things I specifically liked, but I lack the time.

Roden (+32%): While I do have my concerns here which I've covered in 1312 and 1625, I do think Roden's overall behavior comes more from stubborn town than scum.

Null

(0%-30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Bell (+10%): I pretty much explained this earlier. I haven't really noticed anything good or bad from the slot. Looking over the ISO activity-wise, he's had a pretty consistent presence though he did skip a day.

tictac (-1%): I've seen almost nothing from this slot. I think they claimed ascetic?

Dunnstral (-20%): This certainly could be Dunnstral's scum game, but I lack confidence as Dunnstral has this style as both alignments. I agree 126 is a bit off, but that alone isn't very convincing to me. I think the best way to read Dunnstral is after we get some flips so we have a clearer idea of his motivations.

Malakittens (-25%): She has a lot of posts like 846 and 989 where she explains why she hasn't really read the thread. I get being sick and all, but I think this slot needs to do more.

Neutral Scum

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

The Three Bears (-31%): I was mildly town reading Noraa's posts because they seemed to be on the level of outrageousness where it actually becomes somewhat townie for her. That said, Flea's posts since the start of Day 2 is really tanking the slot.

Tet (-33%): Last time I checked, I've agreed with a lot of this slots reads. At the same time, I don't think this slot is doing much. They have a history of being contrary to the popular opinion, but I feel it is off in some way.

TheWayItEnds (-42%): Who is this slot again? They severely lack thread presence, and the times they have popped in, it hasn't been very good. 2072 was especially egregious.

mastina (-44%): mastina has been rather quiet this game. I feel that's a pretty big tell for scum!mastina actually. 498 is a rather questionable reads list though mastina's read rate can vary a lot on Day 1.

MUSHSHAGANA (-48%): I outlined a lot of my qualms with this slot in 473. Since posting that, all I've seen it do is continue to advocate for my elimination without ever expressing a reason that goes beyond "Ircher's ISO is just oozing scumminess." Furthermore, 1651 tells me its reads are almost completely based on how others are reading me. Its focus is its push on me to the exclusion of all else, and I think that comes from scum that wants to look busy without really doing things. 2164 was actually decent.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this reads list

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null section contains both townreads and scumreads, and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. They do not represent a probability of any kind and should not be interpreted that way.

---
Val is also scum, but I didn't really have time to ISO and evaluate specifically what I don't like about the slot. NorwegianBoyEE I think I'd go with town if forced to choose, but it could easily shift. Galron lacks presence, and I don't have much of a read there. Toogeloo struck me as off, but I would need to ISO to give a fair evaluation. Similarly for Andante except I lean more towards town.

[Ircher]

if your action was roleblocked can you use it tonight? for non consec? im assuming not but worth a check

Nope.

[Ircher]

any reason to think u were poisoned at night?
cause lld did that "seize" thing on u yesterday.

This is just silly.

[Ircher]

I always forget, if ircher were a friendly neighbor, would they be informed that their one shot was refunded?

No of course not. Friendly neighbors don't get a notification.

[Ircher]

Who did you neighborize?

I didn't neighborize anyone. I sent a friendly neighbor notification to catboi, but catboi didn't confirm it.

[Ircher]

I think Bell scum claimed in the last few pages.

[Ircher]

why did you friendly neighbor catboi and not me? like, I'd argue I'd have been a much better choice

I already explained. I'm too lazy to look up the exact post, but it's in my ISO. As to why not you, you aren't firmly in my town reads. I wanted to message someone who I was sure would confirm it if they did receive it. I don't have that level of trust for your slot.

[Ircher]

when have you ever seen a town poisoner?

Grand Idea mafia.

As a more serious answer, I think I have seen reflexive town poisoner before in a non-bastard game. You can consider it a "Vigilante-light".

[Ircher]

It's a rehash of what's already been said.

[Ircher]

This also feels off. The confident conclusiveness of this answer doesn't add up if the claim is real. The reply is instant, and the only way he could know for sure is if he asked the mod ahead of time, but he doesn't mention that. Very much just feels like a "just trust me bro" response.

This is pretty standard practice on this site. I have no clue what you're attempting here.

[Ircher]

In other news, Roden just dropped several percentage points with how he's spinning things here.

[Ircher]

Somebody mentioned earlier that Ircher's reads list looked townie, but also noted that he essentially had written it ahead of time, which leads me to believe it was just fabricated as a last ditch effort to save himself.

Let's be clear here: I was in the process of making it over the course of several days. This is evidenced by the fact that I mentioned such. If I had finished it earlier, I would have posted it earlier.

[Ircher]

He also still isn't scum hunting

You don't think forming reads is scum hunting? Then what do you count as scum hunting? Just because /you/ think my reads are fake and not genuine doesn't mean they are. Try looking at things from both a town Ircher and a scum Ircher perspective because it is self-evident you are only considering the latter here.

[Ircher]

In other news, Roden just dropped several percentage points with how he's spinning things here.

Except he’s referring to me who said it first and you didn’t bat an eye

That's not true. I just didn't comment; not everything is worth it at the time. Also, the specifics matter here. You called me out for my initial reaction. Roden is calling me out for providing the standard answer to a question that has a standard answer on this site. That's very different; the former is a good faith engagement even if I disagree. The latter is just incredibly bad faith. You both agree the claim is fake; that's fine, sure; however, the way you reach that conclusion matters, and the way Roden is reaching that conclusion is really iffy compared to yours.

[Ircher]

I'm well aware you're biased against me and using it as a shield to do little elsewhere.

[Ircher]

That said, I'll take you up on your challenge.
VOTE: MUSHSHAGANA

[Ircher]

Your opinions on pretty much everyone can be summed up as either "They support killing me" or "They're actively pushing against my lim". That hardly counts as doing stuff. You have a commanding presence, and it masks what you aren't doing.

[Ircher]

Also, so no one misinterprets my argument here. I'm not saying all your reads are like that. Just 85-90% of them are.

[Ircher]

Why would I as town engage in an argument that I'm likely to lose? That's just silly. As both alignments, I am best off choosing my battles wisely.

[Ircher]

Also the reads list comment is like the least important part pf Roden's post. It baffles me that's the hill him and Mala want to focus on here.

[Ircher]

Why is roden again the only person making sense.

Well, he certainly isn't in the post you quoted!

[Ircher]

Not all qualms have to be pursued. Some can be just noted mentally as a "I scum read this, but it's not important enough to derail the thread over" and moved past. The only reason I addressed Roden's post was because he made multiple bad faith and poorly constructed arguments.

[Ircher]

Why are yoo assuming we have a voyeur or watcher? What are your premises that lead to that conclusion?

[Ircher]

If anything, the flip of a tracker decreases the chance since role variety is generally important for balancing reasons.

[Ircher]

Why would you argue with someone who has minimal power and voice in the game state over someone who might actually be able to convince people to see things your way?

I disagree heavily with your fundamental assumption. You might not be a MUSH or Lambdadelta, but you certainly are loud and have quite some control over the game state, even if it doesn't end well. Also, you already out your foot in your mouth by TMI'ing there is a watcher.

[Ircher]

A watcher would /never/ target me because I would /never/ be killed night 1. A watcher gains much more from watching whoever is killed than they would by watching me. Even if we assume there is a watcher, your conclusions don't follow. A voyeur perhaps would target me, but there is no solid indicator a voyeur exists.

pedit: Laziness.

[Ircher]

No reason to target you when everyone expected you to get RB'd? You really think town doesn't try to catch the Roleblocker?

1) There was no guarantee of a scum roleblocker.
2) Catching the scum performing kills is still better which has a 0% chance of happening against me.
3) Catching a roleblocker is no guarantee they are scum. It points favorably towards, sure, but I can see cases where town roleblocks me (even if it isn't objectively the correct move.)

[Ircher]

I've been telling y'all that MUSH is scum since like day 1 of day 1.

[Ircher]

*raises finger to point out that omgus is commonly town*

Does it indicate a greater than rand chance of being town? I don't think so, but you are welcome to cite the relevant statistical literature and prove me wrong.

[Ircher]

Fair enough.

[Ircher]

I think the biggest difference for scum!Dunn is he is more picky about things, but he's pretty nitpickey as both alignments. At least, that's my impression from my experience with him.

[Ircher]

Andante tilting is frustrating but she is locktown for it, doubts have gone away

I do not think Roden arguing with Ircher is actually productive at all

Why don't you suggest more productive activities then?

[Ircher]

This town is doomed.

[Ircher]

Lim mastina next.

[Ircher]

Yay!!

Thanks for hosting SirCakez!

[Ircher]

Anyway i’m grateful for being allowed to win by technicality, but i can’t accept this as an win in my heart :/
I was never supposed to be able to scumside, my goal was to destroy everyone, and i didn’t factor in scum doctor that could block my killing. If i’d known that i would have radically changed my strategy and focused a lot more on killing scum than i ended up doing.

You deserve a Hannibal nom. Arsonist is really hard to play, harder than a serial killer, and you still did extraordinarily well.

[Ircher]

I don't think so, but you can always make a thread in mafia discussion.