Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

So, my suggestion is:

If NQ is town, Ceph gets confirmed, and targets Fua, which leaves only [Shirou/GL] on the elimination pool if we exclude Enchant, and it seems everyone agrees to exclude Enchant from the pool. If Fua gets an inno there, from a 3rd person pov, the scum team needs to be Shirou + GL, and if Fua receives a guilty, town would need to decide who in [Shirou/GL] is Fua's partner.

If NQ is scum, Ceph isn't confirmed, therefore the pool is [Ceph/Shirou/GL] and since we only would have up to 2 miseliminations but 3 targets, Ceph should target either me or GL so that we either get the last guilty, or we get an inno and get back to 2 eliminations for 2 players, which leave us on auto again (unless fua is scum with NQ, but bleh, can't hope to win here if that's the team I think).

[Shirou]

The above is a completely neutral suggestion that should be the best from everyone pov if they are town I believe, even fua.

The above leaves no chance for a miselimination on fua for example, which is what a team like Shirou/GL would need, but also makes it impossible to get the extra elimination from Ceph if NQ is scum and the theoretical teams would be Shirou/NQ or GL/NQ.

The unique pairing it clearly loses to is Fua/NQ, but eh, if it's fua/NQ to hell with this game. There's no perfect solutions and I would have tried my best to be wary of fua as reasonable as possible.

[Cephrir]

naturally, the "lim me" plan somehow finds its way into dissolving into a supposedly objectively better alternative. it always seems to do this

[numberQ]

So why is Enchant consensus town? I vaguely feel the same way but when I stop and think I'm not actually sure why, maybe I'm just going with everyone else's flow. An ISO would probably give me an answer but people seem pretty confident about it so someone must have a reason for thinking so. I'm sure that reason has been stated, but day 5 conversation has been fast and dense so far.

[Shirou]

naturally, the "lim me" plan somehow finds its way into dissolving into a supposedly objectively better alternative. it always seems to do this

kkkkk

I know it sounds sus but I was actually quite a bit convinced it's fua/guilty by their random spat on the day opening. I still kinda am. However I'm also progressively more and more afraid of being wrong every time people just seem to shrug off my suggestion.

I'm not a very confident person, if no one says "hey, maybe you're onto something", I just kinda default to "maybe I should change tracks" most of the time, but especially because if Fua/GL isn't the solve and I do stray us from our mech plan yesterday for this, losing the game may end up being single-handedly my fault. I don't want to rob people of winning to try risking a "hero solve" that no one seems to believe in.

However, it's also true it's a bit...hm, ?manipulative?, true.

After all, if it's scenario 1, and NQ flips town, then naturally I would by process of elimination end up with Fua/Guilty again, just like from GL's pov it would be Fua/Shirou, and by doing what I did today, maybe I'll have a bit extra ammo to prove that GL is the hypothetical fua's partner rather than me.

(the above is once again, excluding Enchant from the pool, and I will stand by that...)

[Shirou]

Alternatively we could assume fua is town and check for Enchant if NQ flips town, but hmm, I feel like there would be more opposition to this version.

I'm not sure if I would be opposed to that despite what I said about fua though. I feel like...deep in my heart, scum!fua is kinda a nonsense solve because it's hard to believe they would have gone for a no kill gambit in N1 like that...

I can count on one hand the number of scum players I've known in 4 years that would resort to that ballsy tactic on N1. I really thought Morph had to be scum with NQ yesterday since that would be the unique scenario where scum didn't do an unusually risky gambit here...

[Shirou]

Pick your WIFOM poison, because it's soon gonna be confirmed to be *at least* one of those but could also be two of them:

> Scum voluntarily no night killed on N1 for a chance of being confirmed.

> Scum cleared their own partner on D2.

> Scum deliberately risked being guilted on N3 rather than nightkilling me on N2 or N3.

[fua]

So why is Enchant consensus town? I vaguely feel the same way but when I stop and think I'm not actually sure why, maybe I'm just going with everyone else's flow. An ISO would probably give me an answer but people seem pretty confident about it so someone must have a reason for thinking so. I'm sure that reason has been stated, but day 5 conversation has been fast and dense so far.

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

Ydrasse replaced out because Morph called them useless. They claimed doctor on D1 without being prompted (sort of like me) and their reaction to what a townie said in public (leaving altogether) is not something I could see scum ever doing despite Shirou's attempt to widen the lim pool, especially since Ydrasse wasn't even being especially scumread. Also Enchant hasn't done anything that diverges from his town game. Source: I've seen him as scum twice.

Enchant's behavior in general would net him being a top townread even outside of the extraneous circumstances of the replace out.

Wasting a cop shot on Enchant is throwing.

[Tejate Raichu]

you dying tonight would be a godsend honestly lol

I think it's Tejate that always dies here - the cop checks are more cleared than the claimed cops

This is exactly what I meant yesterday when I said I'm most likely to die outside of Ceph/Meg. I feel like I'm probably just dead unless doctors wine. My flip proves nothing, fua's flip proves that I'm town. I know which one definitely looks better for scum, so I find it baffling that fua could propose themselves being the night kill in any universe. Plus I'm now starting to be widely townread, and if my newbie game reminded me of anything it's that that gets you killed.

@Tejate, @Enchant, @NQ why do you think that in the last bits of D3, fua tried to change GL from my cop pool to their own?

I have already expressed my opinion on this on day 3. I thought fua's proposed pools were terrible and they made me physically grimace. You not going with a GL check when your read has suddenly wrapped back to scum!GL though isn't reassuring either.

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

This bothers me a lot still, because mechanically speaking Shirou's plan

should

be correct. So why is there this sudden backpedal, and conflicting reads from Shirou? I still think that scum!fua should make itself apparent with the current plan, and while I certainly still don't full TR fua I don't see how the plan really needs to make a sudden change. Does flipping town not now just prove that either nQ or fua is fake? We could change Ceph's check to accommodate if you really want. Ceph checking fua with a town result should effectively confirm scum!nQ, no?

@Tejate, @Enchant you really think that Fua/GL is impossible and would bet on the game being literally any other team before that?

Please don't put words in my mouth just because I wasn't awake to post. I'm still considering what we should do if you flip town.

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?

If you're town, it's gotta be GL/NQ from my perspective.

From what I'm expecting, the final day would have at least two of Tejate/Ceph/Enchant/Fua to decide the game result in that scenario.

That means the chance of us winning are still pretty good considering that's the solve all of you would most likely default to once I do flip.

If GL is town, it needs to be you/NQ, and the key to winning there is by leaving GL alive today so that he can protect Ceph, and for Ceph to check you.

If it's NQ/Ceph though...hm, what I'm doing right now is a terrible course of actions, and honestly there's a possibility it's just that, but hm...wouldn't it be a rather ballsy play...?

Sigh

Then why on EARTH are you not proposing nQ elimination? Every single possible scum team you list here besides fua/GL includes nQ. I'm sorry, but I really don't see the logic behind threatening to self-vote if you're town here. It makes far more sense for you to push for nQ elim, change Ceph target to you or fua, and then go to town. Do you not agree that fua or you coming up town proves the other as scum in the case of nQ elim?

UNVOTE:

@Ceph

Check me tonight to confirm Tejate and myself.

After one of NQ/Shirou dies can we lim GL?

i'll agree to this if everyone's cool with it

I'm probably just the kill tonight but I'm fine with this if we decide to flip nQ.

[Tejate Raichu]

Summarized to get it out of the wall of text: If we flip Shirou today and he's town, Ceph should check nQ or fua. If we flip nQ today and he's town, Ceph should check Shirou or fua. This makes sense to me.

[numberQ]

Okay, you gave a reason for a Ydrasse TR. Nothing specific about Enchant though, who makes up the bulk of that slot's activity. From what I can see jumping back a few pages here and there, there's a lot of people saying Enchant is obvtown and then other people just kind of agreeing with that assessment. If we follow Shirou's plan, Enchant being town is the one assumption that could ruin things if it's wrong, so it's worth examining.

[numberQ]

^ that was to fua's post before Tejate just now

[Tejate Raichu]

As for who I want to vote today, I don't know. I want to take some time to think about it. I think from a mech perspective, nQ just makes a lot of sense. Him flipping town ensures that we can trust Ceph's result, which means that unless Enchant is scum, Shirou or fua will be mechconfirmed scum. And then there's the obvious benefit that if he flips scum, we're on a good path to solving. Unless I'm missing something big, this should be correct.

But my heart is telling me that Shirou is still just scum here. I know it's less mechanically advantageous if Shirou flips town, but the way today has been handled just feels weird. There should have been no reason to go into panic mode over something that should have a very simple fix. Shirou flipping scum on the other hand hard confirms Ceph as well, and leaves us with a free cop check tomorrow between nQ and fua, wherein the pool is essentially nQ/fua/GL, short of any Enchant shenanigans. The problem is that this perfect scenario hinges on a scum flip from Shirou, and it's otherwise worth less than nQ.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

[Cephrir]

To be fair, anyone flipping scum confirms me

[Tejate Raichu]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

Also, can we talk about this? What the fuck is this? Why am I listed among an unconfirmed but strong TR here as if I'm also a townread? I was CHECKED by you, you should know for a fact that I am town and this should be fairly obvious unspoken. It's not like nQ is saying "I'll never vote for Ceph" because that is very obvious. No one else should be eager to vote me either. Even if, and that's a big if, EVEN IF you think I'm scum, it is always mechanically better to go for fua first since that is my only possible partner. I'm not in imminent danger of being a potential vote on day 6, you are.

So why the hell would you say this as town cop? Why did you say that as if I'm merely a strong TR? Why do you say that as if I am EVER a potential mis-elim from the point you checked me without you being eliminated first?

[Tejate Raichu]

To be fair, anyone flipping scum confirms me

How does nQ scumflip confirm you?

[Cephrir]

Anyone else

Brain is hard

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, fair enough.

[Shirou]

I have already expressed my opinion on this on day 3. I thought fua's proposed pools were terrible and they made me physically grimace. You not going with a GL check when your read has suddenly wrapped back to scum!GL though isn't reassuring either.

Hm

If fua or NQ isn't scum I've no option right now other than assume GL is scum. (Since I'm assuming Enchant is town after today posts).

It's kinda PoE really, I still think GL is objectively towny but Morph flipping town just makes it hard to not mention him on the possible teams from my pov...?

This bothers me a lot still, because mechanically speaking Shirou's plan should be correct. So why is there this sudden backpedal, and conflicting reads from Shirou?

We've 2 eliminations left right now Tejate. If Fua/GL is the team as I suspected, if I blindly voted NQ here, tomorrow it would be GL pairing me off with Fua, and Fua pairing me off with GL. Even if Ceph got a guilty on one, the other one would try to pair me up with the remaining one. If I'm miseliminated there, it would be game over for us from my pov.

I really felt like their entrance posts talking about Fua/Shirou or GL/Shirou were the preparation for that, coupled with how fua suddenly tried to leash themselves on GL on Day 3, I strongly felt it was GL/Fua and still do to a good degree. So I got a bit riled up.

However the more I think about this, the more I realize that I probably shouldn't already assume NQ is town and go for that, even if I do still think that me self-voting and making a big show of NQ being town and GL/Fua being the team, would be the most likely way for us to win against that team specifically, but hm, the more I think about it like I said, the less sure I'm that I've the "hero solve" rather than just being too paranoid. A Fua/GL team would have played rather riskily compared to what I've seen around here in 4 years...

[Shirou]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

Hm, I think if whoever we flip today flips town, we kinda always should investigate fua because getting a guilty when the pool is this small isn't very helpful compared to an inno...

For example imagine we eliminate NQ today, they flip town for some reason and the pool is [Fua, GL, Shirou]. If you get a guilty there, you still need to risky a fifty-fifty on who is the last scum.

However if you get an inno, you automatically know the scum team.

Guilties are more valuable when you've multiple suspects (like the beginning of the game), but the smaller a pool is, the more helpful innos are.

The exception is...a guilty on fua. In my opinion if there's a deepwolf in this game, it's fua, and it's hard to imagine that we win against scum!fua without a guilty that can convince most people to vote there. I wouldn't want to vote fua without a guilty either if at all possible, if we're wrong, it would be a really bad mistake and everyone would be cursing us from the dead thread.

However hm...If I'm not being neutral, I guess I do like your plan considering a hypothetical inno on me would make me feel so peaceful/at ease. It would also be a really good result for town to narrow down the PoE as well, perhaps even more helpful than a guilty on fua since it would make the team look like GL/Fua by process of elimination.

However...that's only because I know I'm town of course...hypothetically speaking if you got a guilty on me, it would be actually a fairly wasted investigation since I was a common suspect anyway.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

Hm, I think if whoever we flip today flips town, we kinda always should investigate fua because getting a guilty when the pool is this small isn't very helpful compared to an inno...

For example imagine we eliminate NQ today, they flip town for some reason and the pool is [Fua, GL, Shirou]. If you get a guilty there, you still need to risky a fifty-fifty on who is the last scum.

However if you get an inno, you automatically know the scum team.

Guilties are more valuable when you've multiple suspects (like the beginning of the game), but the smaller a pool is, the more helpful innos are.

The exception is...a guilty on fua. In my opinion if there's a deepwolf in this game, it's fua, and it's hard to imagine that we win against scum!fua without a guilty that can convince most people to vote there. I wouldn't want to vote fua without a guilty either if at all possible, if we're wrong, it would be a really bad mistake and everyone would be cursing us from the dead thread.

However hm...If I'm not being neutral, I guess I do like your plan considering a hypothetical inno on me would make me feel so peaceful/at ease. It would also be a really good result for town to narrow down the PoE as well, perhaps even more helpful than a guilty on fua since it would make the team look like GL/Fua by process of elimination.

However...that's only because I know I'm town of course...hypothetically speaking if you got a guilty on me, it would be actually a fairly wasted investigation since I was a common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?

[Shirou]

common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?[/quote]
Hmm, I explained it before but in the case of a scum!NQ flip, we kinda have two choices:

Ceph would be not confirmed at all in that scenario, so:
1) If we treat them as conftown anyway we can try to confirm fua
2) If we include Ceph in the pool of suspects we need to give up in ever getting fua right here most likely

if NQ is scum, it means we've up to 2 miseliminations left to kill 3 players in the pool [Shirou, Ceph, GL]. There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose. If we check fua that problem remains, but if we check either GL or Me, it would mean we are guaranteed to win as long as fua isn't the last scum.

It's a tricky situation...and since I'm a coward, despite what I said, I believe including Ceph in the pool and not checking fua in this scenario is the correct choice to not have a potential salty postgame. If we lose to scum!fua everyone is just gonna praise fua, but if we lose to either scum!GL or scum!Ceph (and from a 3rd person pov, scum!me), we would be losing a game that was technically on a silver plate for us, just because of last minute paranoia.

Therefore, I would say if NQ is scum, either me or GL being checked is the go to choice for minimum risk? But I guess fua isn't unreasonable if you want to get dangerous...

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

[Tejate Raichu]

common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?

Hmm, I explained it before but in the case of a scum!NQ flip, we kinda have two choices:

Ceph would be not confirmed at all in that scenario, so:
1) If we treat them as conftown anyway we can try to confirm fua
2) If we include Ceph in the pool of suspects we need to give up in ever getting fua right here most likely

if NQ is scum, it means we've up to 2 miseliminations left to kill 3 players in the pool [Shirou, Ceph, GL]. There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose. If we check fua that problem remains, but if we check either GL or Me, it would mean we are guaranteed to win as long as fua isn't the last scum.

It's a tricky situation...and since I'm a coward, despite what I said, I believe including Ceph in the pool and not checking fua in this scenario is the correct choice to not have a potential salty postgame. If we lose to scum!fua everyone is just gonna praise fua, but if we lose to either scum!GL or scum!Ceph (and from a 3rd person pov, scum!me), we would be losing a game that was technically on a silver plate for us, just because of last minute paranoia.

Therefore, I would say if NQ is scum, either me or GL being checked is the go to choice for minimum risk? But I guess fua isn't unreasonable if you want to get dangerous...[/quote]Well here's the thing right, scum!Ceph doesn't actually gain anything by posting a false guilty. They'd still lose. In the case of redtea/nQ/Ceph, scum!Ceph HAS to come up with an inno tomorrow or we just 1f1 them. Which means that actually, I think we can wholeheartedly trust an inno on whoever they check regardless of nQ's alignment. As such, I actually see little reason to deviate in accounting for scum!nQ flip.