Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[Flea The Magician]

Theres a bunch of nerds, a bunch of nerds
everything is better with a bunch on nerds!

... I haven't even had sugar, it's almost 11pm and I feel like I'm on a sugar high.

VOTE: Titus

[Flea The Magician]

My recommendation is to play fast and loose with votes and get two wagons going asap.

What does this mean and how does it help us?

Mean we just vote until something sticks and we start getting info, quick way out of RVS really but leaves us directionless

[Flea The Magician]

My recommendation is to play fast and loose with votes and get two wagons going asap.

What does this mean and how does it help us?

Mean we just vote until something sticks and we start getting info, quick way out of RVS really but leaves us directionless

Flea, how do you know by now that's strictly untrue? People react and still push wagons for reasons. I'm not advocating that we vote randomly. Instead, I'm suggesting we don't resist a popular wagon we're ok with for a shiny new thing.

Half way into page 1 and going for the RVS breaker is commendable but half the thing is RVS is best broken naturally with someone having legit sus. People will still flop around like a fish out of water but there is less drive there to attach on to something.

[Flea The Magician]

I guess you have to enable it every time you post. That’s annoying.

Ohhh, I've been wondering why mine isn't working.

UCP > Board Preferences > Posting Options > Attach my signature by default

I also suggest going into Display options > Enable bold and color BBcode in sigs; Disable automatic sig-hiding: On

[Flea The Magician]

OK so mech spec from me

We are 9 with a double elim meaning we're 7 into night. Scumshot brings use D2/P4 with 6 players meaning optimal play at this point requires a No-Lim at some point.

My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.
This is going to make stuff interesting as the scum won't want to vote to eliminate their target, making associatives fuzzy but also meaning optimally they don't want their targets yeet.

6 Players D2 with the N2 kill predetermined would be interesting for sure.

The other thing is given the playerlist the N1 kill is going to be telling.

Code: Select all

MalcolmTucker
furtiveglance
GoldfishFromTheMoon
Alianna

Cat.Jpeg

Radical Rat
Titus
Dunnstral
Flea The Magician

Because it can be split like this, players who have games together and knowledge on each others styles so kills are potentially easier to read.

Personally, I don't think we use the extra shot. We don't have enough information to make the best use of it

[Flea The Magician]

OK so mech spec from me

We are 9 with a double elim meaning we're 7 into night. Scumshot brings use D2/P4 with 6 players meaning optimal play at this point requires a No-Lim at some point.

My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.
This is going to make stuff interesting as the scum won't want to vote to eliminate their target, making associatives fuzzy but also meaning optimally they don't want their targets yeet.

6 Players D2 with the N2 kill predetermined would be interesting for sure.

The other thing is given the playerlist the N1 kill is going to be telling.

Code: Select all

MalcolmTucker
furtiveglance
GoldfishFromTheMoon
Alianna

Cat.Jpeg

Radical Rat
Titus
Dunnstral
Flea The Magician

Because it can be split like this, players who have games together and knowledge on each others styles so kills are potentially easier to read.

Personally, I don't think we use the extra shot. We don't have enough information to make the best use of it

Just noticing your listing of who has played together, me and cat.jpeg play together on another site so we are very familiar with each others styles.

Code: Select all

GoldfishFromTheMoon
Alianna
Cat.Jpeg

MalcolmTucker
furtiveglance

Flea The Magician
Titus
Radical Rat
Dunnstral

Probably better ordered like this then, I have played with Malcolm and Furtive once each and absolutely hammered them in both games, not though my own skill though but I'd imagine both would be weary of me at this point. This is also based off my current knowledge of who is who

[Flea The Magician]

either way the kill and interactions are going to be super interesting. Dunno how effective Titus VCA will be but I'm gaining something of a tell around those but I'll definitely be keepin eyes on votes and interactions closer than I normally would.

[Flea The Magician]

Scum have absolutely played this optimally with the D1 kill submission.

If we use this kill, we deny ourselves a lot of information - while it doesnt detract from the number of eliminations we have available to us, the information offset is not worth it nor is the expanded pool as we're sat on evens.

A smaller pool is always better to work with, 1 for 1 gives us that optimal pool.

VOTE: No Kill

[Flea The Magician]

Nope. We are eliminating. Eliminations are information. That's a load of hogwash from scum looking to deny information.

VOTE: furtiveglance

Try me.
You're also voting the wrong person.

9 -> 1+1:1 -> 6 Misyeet and Lose.
6 -> 1:1 > 4 Scum Partity win -or- Misyeet and lose.
4 -> 1:1 > 2 Scum Parity win.

9 -> 1:1 -> 7
7 -> 1:1 -> 5 Potential YOLO.
5 -> 1:1 -> 3 YOLO.


I much, much prefer the second option.

[Flea The Magician]

-Track, if town selects the player that is performing the nightkill, they are revealed as the killer that night phase.

-Watch, if the town selects the player that was selected for nightkill the player performing the kill is revealed as mafia.

- Imprison, if the town selects the kill target OR the player performing the kill, there is no kill the next night.

-Kill, the town gets an extra elimination that day phase. This is not plurality and is majority.

-Inform, the mafia chooses a player to gain bulletproof. The first vote of the day will tell the voted player what alignment the chosen player is at the start of the night phase.

We have 3 phases and 5 options.

Why would the maf use the informed role at all?
Imprison, is a shot in the dark, watch and track are about the same.
If we have strong scum players, there's no threat here.
We play this steady.
We play this smart.

[Flea The Magician]

I think we should hold conversation about what scum may or should do with each ability and their relative utility until AFTER the ability shows up. Let scum figure out their own strategies

Ok, so give me your thoughts behind shooting and no shooting.

[Flea The Magician]

Also, the imprisoned person isn't clear?

nope.
Only the Inform potentially gives us a clear and that has to go to a Locktown person to make sure of that.

[Flea The Magician]

7, 71 and 104 from Radical Rat. just don't like the tone

Can you substantiate those any further?

[Flea The Magician]

From Titus, 93 is really bizarre. Calling Flea scum for strategic difference of opinion is a massive leap, then voting for me just because I'm the one vote going. Seems really bloodthirsty

Town can have a difference of opinion. Scum will jump on it.

Titus do you have any investment in this game? I'm getting the vibe you're dodging me.

[Flea The Magician]

Hope you're better soon <3 Gives me the heebies when you're not more of a presence in games

[Flea The Magician]

More that I've tried to engage with you and you've felt evasive.

[Flea The Magician]

There has mostly just been analysis of game mechanics and a lot of it is NAI

And yet I feel you should have more visible reads ...

[Flea The Magician]

I think we should hold conversation about what scum may or should do with each ability and their relative utility until AFTER the ability shows up. Let scum figure out their own strategies

I think we should hold conversation about what scum may or should do with each ability and their relative utility until AFTER the ability shows up. Let scum figure out their own strategies

Ok, so give me your thoughts behind shooting and no shooting.

Shooting gives us a non-zero chance of hitting scum, whereas not shooting gives us an exactly zero chance of hitting scum. But even on a miss, the flip and wagon behavior will give us something substantial to work with going forward into the proper elimination. Not shooting does not give us that, and we're essentially just having an absurdly long D1 instead. Further, smaller amount of living slots means higher likelihood of a hit for any of our other PRs, even though it puts us in a more precarious position going by the numbers alone.

OK so then you prefer to go onto evens when we're shooting blind twice? not shooting gives us more room for error imo.

[Flea The Magician]

There has mostly just been analysis of game mechanics and a lot of it is NAI

And yet I feel you should have more visible reads ...

Can you elaborate on this?

I feel like I should have a little more knowledge on where they stand in this game currently, be that reads, investment levels, or even stance on the current situation.

For example Titus feels detatched and lacking conviction but I know she would much prefer to shoot currently and I know she likely has a PoE where she would shoot.

I got nothing but "meh." from Goldfish and I don't like it.

[Flea The Magician]

The thing is everyone at this point should have an opinion on something.
Be it game state, using the Kill or not, or a read on someone.

If someone has nothing - they're either not invested or overly cautious which can be scummy.

[Flea The Magician]

Yu can still do stuff and contribute, this doesn't put us to night. So use the time we have.

[Flea The Magician]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

I haven't double checked the math because I'm lazy, but I think this is actually a really good way to go about this. We can popcorn and nominate two townreads each, and then eliminate from what remains.

Spoiler:

Probability Calculator





Feel free to use your own numbers

The numbers are actually off because it doesn't account for the fact that the first elimination removes a player from the pool. The actual chances are slightly higher than shown.

You're really liking that website lately aint ya lol.
Lemme fire up IDLE.

Odd of us randomly hitting both town is 52%, hitting one maf is 43% and hitting both is 4% approximately from what I just fed it and using random.sample

[Flea The Magician]

It certainly helps to reframe the argument.

If you are town, and you have 1 townread, and you exclude yourself. Your chance of voting out mafia in 2 eliminations is greater than 50%.

To argue that the day 1 elimination is completely random is likely incorrect. I challenge people to be able to have 1 townread rather than defaulting to a no-elimination.

If you have a slight scumlean, you should be voting for them instead of voting to not eliminate. 2 eliminations is

not

worse than 1. Eliminations are the towns tool, mafia use the night kills. When have you ever played a game of mafia as town and tried to eliminate as few times as possible?

I pointed out that mafia have the option of forcing the same situation where there's 4 players alive whether we no eliminate today or not. So the only argument left is that we will somehow have more information later, but we can't get information later if we no eliminate. And the information we get later is worth more when there are less players alive, anyways.

It genuinely is random barring any slips. Humans are not good at psychology. We're good at pattern recognition.
Removing yourself if you're town here, you have 47% of a full miss, 47% of hitting one and just under 5% of hitting a double.

Likewise scum have a 71% chance of a double mislim in their favour and 28% of their partner being hit - and this is on sheer random chance.

Problem is while we know our own alignments it's a foolish idea to use the odds away from you as those are your odds and your odds alone. The group numbers are what should be used.

Also twice.

[Flea The Magician]

and I can refute all of those baseless arguments. If I was scum with nothing to say, I wouldn't say that. The gamestate was stale and I commented on it. So what. It's a well known fact that town is eliminated day 1 in most games. I also have the added knowledge that I'm town. The most redundant of your arguments against me seems to imply that I was against using the double elimination just because I was the most popular vote. This is false. I always wanted to No Eliminate first, and stated that at the time. As for my outrage at being called scum, Titus' read had no basis or explanation. So yes I was baffled. As for not pushing my current reads, I really don't know what you mean. I've been consistent on voting No Eliminate, and I've also been open with my reads on players, even asking others to comment on them. So I did push there without being prodded.

In other words, get your murderous hands off me you greedy opportunist.

Yes I know I how I sound. I think it's warranted if you actually read the game though, and see how unfairly I'm being treated.

I am sure that town are smart enough not to condemn me here anyway, so have fun being left looking desperate and exposed.

I'm getting the same vibe as I got from you in the Muses game here. you're trying to use general game mechanics and metagame knowledge to defend yourself.

[Flea The Magician]

and I can refute all of those baseless arguments. If I was scum with nothing to say, I wouldn't say that. The gamestate was stale and I commented on it. So what.

It's a well known fact that town is eliminated day 1 in most games. I also have the added knowledge that I'm town.

The most redundant of your arguments against me seems to imply that I was against using the double elimination just because I was the most popular vote. This is false. I always wanted to No Eliminate first, and stated that at the time. As for my outrage at being called scum, Titus' read had no basis or explanation. So yes I was baffled. As for not pushing my current reads, I really don't know what you mean. I've been consistent on voting No Eliminate, and I've also been open with my reads on players, even asking others to comment on them. So I did push there without being prodded.

In other words, get your murderous hands off me you greedy opportunist.

Yes I know I how I sound. I think it's warranted if you actually read the game though, and see how unfairly I'm being treated.

I am sure that town are smart enough not to condemn me here anyway, so have fun being left looking desperate and exposed.

I'm getting the same vibe as I got from you in the Muses game here. you're trying to use general game mechanics and metagame knowledge to defend yourself.

I just like defending myself. I know you're not really meant to, but I do it nonetheless. I don't really understand this criticism either. I just went through Dunnstral's weak scumcase on me and dismissed it. What metagame knowledge have I appealed to?

Bolded in most recent example. I don't mind you defending yourself, it's the flattening defence I have an issue with such as what you've attempted here for the most part.
You give mostly flat reasoning that doesn't investigate or probe any further. Theres no content generation. The only thing you have here is asking to clarify on metagame knowledge.

This is what you did in the Muses game, you just gave flat defences that went nowhere, no matter what was thrown at you.
Now admittedly I don't have enough on you to metaread you and I'm not overly a fan of meta as this site tends to use it, I use live meta if I'm using it.

I can't shake that vibe though at the moment.

[Flea The Magician]

It is accurate though and I called it out myself.

Nope. We are eliminating. Eliminations are information. That's a load of hogwash from scum looking to deny information.

VOTE: furtiveglance

Try me.
You're also voting the wrong person.

9 -> 1+1:1 -> 6 Misyeet and Lose.
6 -> 1:1 > 4 Scum Partity win -or- Misyeet and lose.
4 -> 1:1 > 2 Scum Parity win.

9 -> 1:1 -> 7
7 -> 1:1 -> 5 Potential YOLO.
5 -> 1:1 -> 3 YOLO.


I much, much prefer the second option.

[Flea The Magician]

I'm the main one pushing her no kill.
Titus needs to give her reasoning for the furtive vote an why not me when I'm clearly being called scum in that post as the main person pushing for no kill.

[Flea The Magician]

Almost all, if not all, the people voting no elimination aren't scumhunting and barely scratched an omgus.

This isn't true though is it. I've been trying, and I've been trying to engage with you, I know you're not at your peak but in a game like this I know you'd read and respond. I've also called out another read and set of interactions I've had and given the state of the game there isn't much to go on.

I'm the main one pushing her no kill.
Titus needs to give her reasoning for the furtive vote an why not me when I'm clearly being called scum in that post as the main person pushing for no kill.

Like I said. Town can disagree. Scum jump on the opportunity to silence town and deny information.

So where do you stand on me currently? Because I'm seeing a conflict.

We aren't going to get a good wagon in the time we have. I think it's best we just end the phase so we can move on from this argument and discuss reads.

I don't think we will get a turn around and an elimination today, I think its best if someone hammers so we can stop talking about if we should double eliminate or if something was a joke or not and get onto more helpful things.

Adding to this its never too late to try and get a wagon if you believe it's right, there's no reason for you to lie down and watch the game roll over you.

What makes these discussions not helpful? I think deciding to eliminate is a very important decision, and if someone presents a more compelling reason than simply being afraid of missing, I'd be happy to hammer a no lim. Can't happen if we don't talk about it though.

Likewise, the joke thing was a misconception that informed my scumread, and that's important to clear up, is it not?

[Flea The Magician]

Okay so I was thinking about if Furtive was scum, who would be their scumbuddy?
I think it would be pretty crazy if Dunnstral, RadicalRat, or Titus is their scumbuddy.
Malcolm Tucker I really dont think is because of 100 and 102 along with other posts
Flea I dont think is because of 209, now normally I would consider the possibility of them being a scumbuddy but who doesn't want to go down with furtive so they decide its better to add some pressure to distance themselves but not straight up scum read but this post and the reasons used really dont feel like a scum buddy interaction.
Alianna 196, slightly less sure but also dont think this is scumbuddy behaviour.
Lastly there's Goldfish who i feel could be a possible scumbuddy, the RVS vote for Furtive coulda been orchestrated. She also was the only one who put basically no pressure on furtive, I will admit tho, I myself didnt say very much against them.

Ofc this all only matters if furtive is scum, but I dont know if I want to vote them soon and find out so oh well.
I could spend 5 hrs doing this ^ for everyone so if we find one mafia we will instantly know the other (because my assumptions are definitely always right) but im tired and also i dont think doing this will be as clear cut for other people and things might change but i thought this was worth it in case the furtive wagon rolls on into elim phase.
Basically what im saying is if furtive is scum goldfish would prolly be a good vote, if goldfish is town i think furtive is too?

(also just in case i get night killed, which i feel like i wont, i dont think Goldfish would wanna kill me night 1 (and its okay for me to say this because they cant change their minds) though she could probably be persuaded idk)

So the weird thing here for me is you're hunting associatives without a flip or even confidence in pre-flip.

Whats your read on Furtive currently? ELI5.

[Flea The Magician]

kewl.
VOTE: cat.jpeg

[Flea The Magician]

Radical Rat, your thoughts on players besides me are just "Cat/Goldfish could be scum, maybe?"

For me it's the other way around, by the way. People's pushes on me seem rather disingenuous, and I've been defensive as a result of people being unnecessarily offensive.

My position is a pretty strange one to be in, and I'm not sure how to go about it. 3 people seem to have it locked into their heads that I'm scum, and everything I say seems to just confirm that for them. I'm trying to give reads and play the game normally, but If I'm constantly having to defend senseless pushes on me, I'll be a bit busy with that.

Oh no, that wasn't a full readslist or anything, just my current scumpool.

Actual readslist would look something like this:

Flea, Dunnstral
Malcolm, Titus
Alianna
Cat, Goldfish, furtive

I don't like this readslist. It looks calculated, and not in a good way. It actually looks like an exercise I'd do if I was scum - rank players from hardest to easiest to mislim.

Can tell you don't play with me much. I am FAR from a hard mislim.

Okay so I was thinking about if Furtive was scum, who would be their scumbuddy?
I think it would be pretty crazy if Dunnstral, RadicalRat, or Titus is their scumbuddy.
Malcolm Tucker I really dont think is because of 100 and 102 along with other posts
Flea I dont think is because of 209, now normally I would consider the possibility of them being a scumbuddy but who doesn't want to go down with furtive so they decide its better to add some pressure to distance themselves but not straight up scum read but this post and the reasons used really dont feel like a scum buddy interaction.
Alianna 196, slightly less sure but also dont think this is scumbuddy behaviour.
Lastly there's Goldfish who i feel could be a possible scumbuddy, the RVS vote for Furtive coulda been orchestrated. She also was the only one who put basically no pressure on furtive, I will admit tho, I myself didnt say very much against them.

Ofc this all only matters if furtive is scum, but I dont know if I want to vote them soon and find out so oh well.
I could spend 5 hrs doing this ^ for everyone so if we find one mafia we will instantly know the other (because my assumptions are definitely always right) but im tired and also i dont think doing this will be as clear cut for other people and things might change but i thought this was worth it in case the furtive wagon rolls on into elim phase.
Basically what im saying is if furtive is scum goldfish would prolly be a good vote, if goldfish is town i think furtive is too?

(also just in case i get night killed, which i feel like i wont, i dont think Goldfish would wanna kill me night 1 (and its okay for me to say this because they cant change their minds) though she could probably be persuaded idk)

So the weird thing here for me is you're hunting associatives without a flip or even confidence in pre-flip.

Whats your read on Furtive currently? ELI5.

I think regardless of if we get a furtive flip that post was useful, this game has some interesting possiblities in which we can gain information without having to eliminate. It also helped me wrap my head around this confusing game. Idk what ELI5 means but right now I unapologetically town read furtive, its not a strong town read and if we get some actual reasons they are mafia other that 'being too defensive' (which yes can be scummy but town do it too, especially furtive) then i think their partner is goldfish.

ELI5 is Educate me Like I'm 5.

You're still making associatives for some reason, so then you solve that I can see stands at Goldfish and Furtive.
Why goldfish?

Radical Rat, your thoughts on players besides me are just "Cat/Goldfish could be scum, maybe?"

For me it's the other way around, by the way. People's pushes on me seem rather disingenuous, and I've been defensive as a result of people being unnecessarily offensive.

My position is a pretty strange one to be in, and I'm not sure how to go about it. 3 people seem to have it locked into their heads that I'm scum, and everything I say seems to just confirm that for them. I'm trying to give reads and play the game normally, but If I'm constantly having to defend senseless pushes on me, I'll be a bit busy with that.

Oh no, that wasn't a full readslist or anything, just my current scumpool.

Actual readslist would look something like this:

Flea, Dunnstral
Malcolm, Titus
Alianna
Cat, Goldfish, furtive

I don't like this readslist. It looks calculated, and not in a good way. It actually looks like an exercise I'd do if I was scum - rank players from hardest to easiest to mislim.

You think maybe that might be because scum finds it easiest to mislim players who look scummy?

You could have made this list pre-game, looking at past games. It doesn't reflect at all on the gamestate - the only link is me being bottom and you sussing me. The other reads come out of nowhere. I don't see a natural thought process here or any explanation. I will one up you tomorrow and show you what a real readslist looks like.

RadRat has played with me before, they know I am an easy elim from the right angle.
My games are on my wiki page, feel free to go look at them to get an idea of how weird a player I am.

Oh cool. A is likely scum too. I'll do either. No way town has me furtive as SS.

VOTE: furtive

Titus are you OK? Like genuinely asking

[Flea The Magician]

Alanna is someone who needs my attention at the moment, but I'm currently in a manic depressive episode so bear with me while I work it out my system

@Mod LA due to health

Shouldn't be issue but just in case.

[Flea The Magician]

Dunn might be scum here.

Disagree, game is stagnent and Dunn literally doesn't say anything if there's nothing to say. Genuinely like trying to extract blood from a stone on slower games.

[Flea The Magician]

Dunn might be scum here.

Go on

Scum!Dunn struggles with content and I saw you elsewhere.

VOTE: Titus

You know Elitelling is bad and this doesn't fit your usual logic for a good vote. You also can struggle with content as scum, and from what I can see you're floundering here.

[Flea The Magician]

Alianna I've just skimmed over your ISO and I'm feeling the disappointment.
You don't have much content, you're not driving much and I'm getting a blind sheep feel from you overall. 363 is one of the best posts I can see in there.

[Flea The Magician]

Goldfish where is the readslist?
And can people who aren't voting vote or explain why they refuse?

Idk who to vote for. I don't know what to think.
VOTE: RadicalRat because reasons in my readlist

Any reason for the vote now instead of at the time of your reads?

[Flea The Magician]

The thing is votes are changable, they don't lock. So why wouldn't you vote? You've played a newbie game so you'd know that.

[Flea The Magician]

Most were already voting in their red list or the list was for the ability phase

[Flea The Magician]

I know you're probably trying to read me better but this is so random. I just wasnt thinking about voting earlier and then I was reading back and did.

Yeah I'm far from a "normal" player, I'm very random and chaotic but I know my thought train and when needed I'm occasionally able to elaborate it to people.

[Flea The Magician]

Sorry, I've had a lot happening past couple days, didn't find the energy to engage here.

At any rate, I have to agree that Titus looks bad here. Alianna push/vote was questionable, but I was willing to take it as just being wrong, moving on to Dunnstral with a similarly bad/reachy push after no one bit on Alianna though... I think that tips the scale a bit too far.

Lol.

Now I have lost pretty much all hope for this game.

There's no one competent here I can build around.

Most everyone fucked up D1 mechanically.
People ignore social dynamics in a game.

I'd sub out here but that would be strategic here so *shrug*.

Titus wtaf. Genuinely worried about you now cause you are not the person who goes "Well I wanna sub out but its strategic ss lol!" normally because you know thats not only against rules but its a shit move. It now also confirms my SR on you here.

You know my logic and yours can work together, you made no solid effort to convince me that using the double lim was beneficial for town and you know of all people I will sit and listen to - you are one of them.

Elaborate on the social dynamics here for me.

[Flea The Magician]

No its not, it's against the rules to talk about subbing out you know that.

Our views were straight opposite but you know I can be talked to and convinced otherwise.

I'm mega sus on A at the moment because as I've said their ISO is so underwhelming they feel like a spectator not a player. Dunn lurks in general and more so in stagnant games.

The triangle thing is interesting actually, my first thought was your rule of 3.

I like to think I am mechanically competent player, maybe I've played too many bastard games at this point though.

Now you've said it, yeah its against rules for you to sub out.

I am more than happy to work with you but you need to show me you're town here.

UNVOTE: Titus

Wheres the moon logic mama bear I know and love?

[Flea The Magician]

Elitelling is when you accuse someone of being scummy because they're "avoiding the game" by being active elsewhere on site and not posting in the game.

[Flea The Magician]

I think I'm fairly confident that Flea/Malcolm/Goldfish/Titus are all town, so voting in Alianna/Cat/Dunnstral/Radical Rat will probably result in good things.

Was going to ask what you made of my positioning on the Wagon, the jump on then jump off after being AtE'd

[Flea The Magician]

My thoughts are Titus will flip red. I'm aware she's unwell however and that may be impacting my read. 9 hours to go isn't going to change anything at this point as we have no competing wagon which would indicate to me a red flip. If Titus is green then we've lost probably our strongest player.


I don't do D1 associatives.

Cat.jpeg is also a top scum read for me at the moment.

VOTE: Titus

Come at me scumbutts.

[Flea The Magician]

Oh and Alianna, your turn to be bitten by The Flea tomorrow.

[Flea The Magician]

Brains are weird, reading up...

[Flea The Magician]

Spoiler: We don't need another hero!

As the sun set 8 people went to their houses. In the morning.... 8 still remained.

The Day 2 Ability Phase shall be: Inform
The mafia has chosen a player, vote a player you want to learn the alignment of the player chosen by the mafia!


Votecount 2.0.0

Day 2: Taste- So many tasty things to eat

Not Voting: Radical Rat, MalcolmTucker, furtiveglance, GoldfishFromTheMoon, Dunnstral, Cat.Jpeg, Alianna, Flea The Magician

With 8 alive it takes 5 to make a decision.
Deadline:(expired on 2022-05-17 00:07:08)

Beautiful. Sorry Titus <3 so this shot is either random or someone who played with Titus before knows she powers up as the game goes on.
Dunn isn't the type to make that shot I don't think, I think Rat might but might suggest it more than push it.
Doesn't eliminate either of them and both are under close watch today.

Let it be said that I was online when the daystart was posted

Let it be said that I also was online when the day start was posted. Is that relevant though?

LAMIST much?

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

Hoping you elaborate on this.

Spoiler: We don't need to know the way home

Wagon on me was interesting and draws parallels with 2092 but I don’t want to comment too much until I’ve thought more.

Again, hoping you elaborate here.

I've thought about this inform ability a bit more. It will most likely give us a confirmed town, because mafia wouldn't want to out themselves. I think based on yesterday the player we will be informed of is probably Flea/Malcolm, for being consensus townreads.

I think we've actually forced mafias hand here which amuses me. Fun thing is finding out who they've cleared.
For me Goldfish is not the one to inform here, but, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves. So optimal scumplay here is vote their NK or vote themselves.

Spoiler: All we want is life beyond

I find it humorous that because Titus was NK'd it's almost like we didn't eliminate twice. They would hate that. Im going to look at the game again with the knowledge 2 people knew Titus was the nightkill. The final vote count has me, furtive, malcolm, and alianna not voting titus but i dont think thats too useful because i think the mafia (at least one of them) ended up voting titus in the end to avoid getting voted themselves (rr or dunnstral). Also once again I townlean alianna for how absurd it was for them to unvote on Titus. Early in the game though might yeild more information.

Titus is screaming at me from the dead thread. I can promise you that. 3 eliminations become one and we're on evens which is what I was trying to avoid.

You need to be aware of how you're perceived and why. That's the first step to being involved in the town. If you just push your own agenda and ignore us all the time, it's not easy townread you. You didn't really engage with my idea of giving Goldfish the info, what do you think about that? I get that you prefer yourself, but do think Goldfish is scum? Or just a likely nightkill target? What's the issue here.

Mhmm. Why pick on Dunn and not goldfish for this?

Spoiler: The thunderdome.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

Actually a good shout. Hoping we get more solid stances from Alianna though and I'm not entirely sold without a reread there.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

This logic is bizarre and cyclical because it assumes town!Alianna initially. The way I see it, Alianna was the counter wagon to confirmed town. That's the only thing I care about. Alianna does not get towncred for being the counter wagon to the nightkill, because that implies that me/Malcolm are scum. Which is untrue/I would be shocked if Malcolm was mafia. So Alianna is no more town than yesterday for me.

Your logic is amazing.

Rat gains cred, Dunn gains sus, cat/malc/furtive incriminating each other? huh.

[Flea The Magician]

Will be posting and responding later.
RL happened and continues to happen -.-

[Flea The Magician]

sorry for being flakey, health has taken a big shift. will be tonight or tomorrow.

[Flea The Magician]

Not sure why I gain sus in the post above

Wasn't anything significant, that I could point to. Vibes.

These thoughts are....idk. Weird? Bad?

1) Nightkill analysis is even more useless than usual in this considering that it was done pre-game. Rat gets no towncred from that.

2) I don't need to elaborate on informing Goldfish. They're my strongest townread.

3) Your point about giving the Titus wagon towncred is illogical. It assumes that Alianna is town - which I don't think is true in the first place. The fact is that the Titus wagon were all voting town - they get scumcred in my eyes.

4) Are you sarcastically criticising my logic about Alianna still being scummy based on yesterday's wagon? If so, counter it.

5) You're casually sussing me/Malcolm/Cat. Expand on this.

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

NKA in a traditional sense, useless. I'm not using it in a traditional sense, I'm going on what I would expect people to do pre-game which would be based on knowledge of Titus.

You absolutely do, and in fact I'm going to insist on it.

What point about the Titus wagon? You mean Rats I agreed with?

Absolutely yes I'm being sarcy.
You are dismissing any wagon analysis reads by trying to pretend they're circular and amending to the wagon information to create your point.

Facts are: Alianna was the designated counterwagon. Titus wagon would've wanted to be avoided.
Scum are probably smart enough to put 1 on wagon at most.

Counterwagon drivers are likely to be scum pushes on town targets to maximise their win chance, there's nothing gained from pushing their own team as a counter.

For now it's safe to keep Alianna off the table, they're by no means confirmed, but it does present interesting insights - and you provided one yourself - the implication of yourself and Malcom.

Casually sussing? You and Malcom yes, Dunn, yes. Cat? no. Nothing casual about my sus there. And now there's nothing casual about my sus on you.
VOTE: Furtiveglance

Now this last line of yours is going to get its own post.

Re: 507 and 509 being LAMIST
I don't get what you mean by this. I did not read 507 as making any attempt to project alignment. It just looked like Goldfish being Goldfish. I can tell you that the same goes for my post 509.

Re: furtive's 566 criticizing Dunn's self-vote
Self-voting isn't auto-sus here. From an individual perspective, it makes sense to do so as either alignment because you're informed of your own alignment. The problem is that your fellow townies are not, so overall the pro-town decision is to give the information to somebody trusted. Goldfish is widely townread, so there isn't really an issue with her self-vote, but Dunn has been controversial.
Slightly related thought, scum could try to get a controversial player informed to sabotage the ability's effectiveness. I like 576 even less now.

Towncred for the sake of towncred. I dislike it.
Goldfish being goldfish means nothing to me. I don't know them.

I can likewise counter your point here with Dunn being Dunn.
Furtives 566 is trying to lecture someone with a join date 6 years older than them on how to play mafia.

, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves.

What do you mean? mafia can lie about someone who isnt them being BP'd because mafia could just not kill the person they said and it would seem like they were BP'd. How would that out the mafia.

Wasn't fully clear of mind at the time, more possibilities have been rolled. This is an optimal play from them here and them being informed works fully in scum favour here.

In the scenario that the mafia have BP'd someone they will try and get elimmed today (probably RR, Alianna, or Dunnstral), because the fact that the mafia might have given the BP to them even though they are being scumread has been acknowledged then if they are scum they can pretend that is what happened. Also it would be stupid to eliminate the person we informed and i dont want to rule out any of these 3 from elimination.

In the more likely scenario that mafia has chosen to BP a consensus townread because it will be the least useful to town once we find out, then they know that person wont get voted out and will survive to the last day. In that case mafia probably BP'd somebody who they believe they can convince to vote with them. Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR (at the end of day one rr was the only person goldfish gave no read on or mentioned). And i think goldfish is likely to be BP because shes the most widely townread and also hasn't expressed as strong opinions or scumreads as other widely townread people.

But wait if goldfish is the BP that means shes also not the NK so voting her is fine? Im confusing myself. While i think goldfish is most likely to be BP its a 40% chance and the other 60% is split (not exactly evenly) between everyone else so i think shes most likely but still not likely. Whatever. Me being a better vote still makes sense (under the conditions you think im town). Vote Cat 2022.

I don't think they'll go for a consensus TR personally, I think if they are a consensus TR then it's co-incidence. Thing here would be to confirm a player who is right on as few of the maf as possible. That player gets confirmed pretty much, and their takes are going to carry a little more weight than they probably should.

[Flea The Magician]

Great. I think Alianna is the best vote for today, just ahead of Radical Rat.

VOTE: Alianna

Why?

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

How the heck did you get to 4?

I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.

I agree that I need to throw out Alianna/Radical Rat, after the inform thing.

I think it makes for Alianna/Dunnstral or Dunnstral/Radical Rat, which would put Dunnstral in my focus.

Yeah Alianna/Dunn would strike me as the most likely team right now, albeit with the caveat sometimes hard to be 100% confident with associatives.

Break down the associatives you have for me.

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

If I

had

to, Dunn.

[Flea The Magician]

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

So accusing me of coasting, interesting. D2 I've been absent admittedly because my health took a nose dive - as is it want to do when it feels like it.
Questionable content, oh yeah absolutely - and a good amount of the bait was taken. Even better though is almost every single post I'm seeing from you is so questionable on so many levels, and while you're trying to do your little and often - reality is I see you actually doing very little actual decent hunting and mostly excusing yourself.


As for understanding my thought process? Good luck. There's at least 3 sets of ADHD/Autism mindset and tracks to follow.

[Flea The Magician]

I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.

Nuance is a powerful thing and something you seem to lack.
The fact you correctly townread Titus is nothing, so did I for most of the day until she took a stupidly bad take which is odd for her and ngl I'm a lil worried about her.

Even Numbers is abslutely better for mafia, that was never in dispute.

Bottom line in self-meta and saying what scum you would do is NAI - the weight you put there however, is AI. Your whole defence again is "I don't play like that."

566 is just a shitty post and I could be inclined to say its a mislim setup. Frankly I don't think you're that stupid.

[Flea The Magician]

I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.

Nuance is a powerful thing and something you seem to lack.
The fact you correctly townread Titus is nothing, so did I for most of the day until she took a stupidly bad take which is odd for her and ngl I'm a lil worried about her.

Even Numbers is abslutely better for mafia, that was never in dispute.

Bottom line in self-meta and saying what scum you would do is NAI - the weight you put there however, is AI. Your whole defence again is "I don't play like that."

566 is just a shitty post and I could be inclined to say its a mislim setup. Frankly I don't think you're that stupid.

If Even Numbers is better for mafia then, why are you saying mafia wouldn't vote the nightkill?

I pull some weird fucking plays but even I know I'm this setup scum need to secure this game asap

[Flea The Magician]

I'm at E-2 out of nowhere. That means at least 1 town is voting for me, probably 2.

I feel wronged. I'm trying to solve, I'm being open, I'm giving reads.

I called Titus town and you killed them anyway, so you guys haven't helped me solve at all.

Calling Titus town gets you nothing. No credit, no free pass, no get out of jail free card.

What I'm saying is that I think I'm playing well, townreading town and scumreading scum, and other town aren't playing as well.

I thought I was a pretty likely nightkill, but judging by today scum probably think they can condemn me off the back of a bad start.

I've kind of gone off Alianna being scum, I'm seeing Dunnstral/Radical Rat right now.

The worst vote on me comes from Radical Rat. 707 ^^ looks really sneaky and desperate to appear uninformed by talking about confbias and stuff.

I do actually agree with you on the RR vote, but RR seems to have same kinda mindset as I do currently.

I think town will lose if I'm eliminated today, it's as simple as that for me.

Then fight. Make it so you're needed for town, make it so you make sense and have good presence. Cause all you've done is extrapolate and dismiss others foundations.

I'd love a Radical Rat vote today, maybe even more than a Dunnstral vote. But I do think Dunnstral is likely scum as well.

Practically we have a problem with today's vote. Flea/Alianna/RR/Dunnstral will all end up voting me, whereas me/Malcolm/Cat/Goldfish will vote the counter - either Dunnstral or RR.

Convince me otherwise, there's others I'm happy to vote for other than you currently.

Dunnstral, would you vote for Radical Rat instead of me?

Alianna, will you vote either Dunnstral or RR?

You think Dunn is scummy and seeing if they'll vote RR, then just asking Alianna to save you somehow? Stuff like this is why you're failing vibe checks.

[Flea The Magician]

I'm trying to be realistic and practical. I can't help you with vibes. Is it possible that you don't like my vibes regardless of alignment?

Absolutely yes. It's also possible I have bias as a result of this and then paying a little more attention than I should be to parts of your post

[Flea The Magician]

It's not as simple as 1 dead town vs 2, we can't No Eliminate after Day 1 and even numbers is better for mafia so vote the nightkill + miscondemn + nightkill = 2 mafia in 6 = good for mafia.

In this kind of game Mafia need to secure as many eliminations as quickly as possible. I don't think they shoot their targets here at all.

3 chances for dead townies D1 and they got rekt on that. Sure they have the numbers still, but, with game progression being slower there's some spicy town power to come which with fewer numbers can condemn them.

[Flea The Magician]

Furtive digging in deeper I see.

Whats wrong with Dunn looking towards candidates?