Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

first

[fireisredsir]

are we still doing rvs

i thought it would be more fun to do a random coalition stage

since that's what we're doing first

[fireisredsir]

ari sounds like she doesn't like my random coalition stage idea ):

[fireisredsir]

thank u i was proud of it

[fireisredsir]

exactly its like twice as much info

[fireisredsir]

I was just thinking that it would be really horrible if you were actually mafia and got me to trust you and then eliminate everyone else in the coalition besides you and then we had to 1v1 at elo it would be like a scary horror movie where you find out the killer is inside the house and I would have nightmares :<

hmm i don't like this one

[fireisredsir]

early vibes are slightly good for skitter bc i had generally similar reactions as she did as i was reading along and idk the way she's going about things reminds me a lil more of town skitter

[fireisredsir]

like ok i think the thing is that it feels like skitter came in with the goal of Analyze Things and Move Game Forward whereas with ari it feels more like a goal of Establish Presence and Talk To People. and the first set of goals is townier than the second set especially in this setup. this is a very vibes read but i feel like its somewhat supported by what's been posted. datisi is somewhere in between, i think. everyone else idk they haven't talked enough which is towny, maybe.

the difficult thing is that ari just has more of that energy in general in most games. but something about it here just feels more intentional somehow idk

[fireisredsir]

@fire do you have thoughts about anyone else?

i do have specific thoughts on one someone else but im gonna keep them a secret for now cause i wanna see what they do and also cause i think its fun when i see other people do that and i want to be cool like those people

[fireisredsir]

the difficult thing is that ari just has more of that energy in general in most games. but something about it here just feels more intentional somehow idk

I actually thought I was doing a decent job of exercising restraint hehe

well i think that's maybe part of it

like it feels like you're having to decide what balance to strike rather than just letting it flow naturally

[fireisredsir]

because eliminations happen in the coalition.

btw i saw this on the wiki as well and can someone explain why, as i am small brain

cause we have 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

scenario 4 is a win. so by pure rand we have 1/3 chance of 2 scum in, and 2/3 chance of 1 scum in.

lim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267

lim outside:
(1/3) * (0/5) + (2/3) * (1/2) = 0.333

am i dumb

[fireisredsir]

lim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267

lim outside:
(1/3) * (0/

4

) + (2/3) * (1/

4

) =

0.167

bolded corrections are mine

u kno what, i am dumb, thank u

my brain kept getting caught on the 7 number but thats the number of town

[fireisredsir]

i wanted to wait until everyone had posted content and then drop a full squad heal after that rather than going one by one

[fireisredsir]

it could be that he's just busy today cuz holiday and he will come back and towntell his butt off tomm

hi yes i was spending the day with my mommy cuz i am a good child (:

[fireisredsir]

it would actually be hilarious if fire not using the "ping" tell on skitter is scum!indicative for him

i didn't mention it in panic room i think but idk if the large was over at that point so it prob wasn't strictly legal

AND GUESS WHAT

1 use of ping and not until like post 500, and she was scum

smh its real

[fireisredsir]

anyway now that mala has posted my first shot at a coalition is

HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: skitter
HEAL: not known 15
HEAL: irrelephant
HEAL: malakittens

[fireisredsir]

my secret read from earlier was that save the dragons is scum and sadly he probably still is. this is purely a vibes read and i have little to justify it but i feel it in my soul

[fireisredsir]

I didn't like that he didn't give me any pushback to scumreading him at all because I think town!him would wonder why I'm misreading him right away but scum!him might feel more scared and fearful of engaging immediately.

idk exactly how i responded to you misreading me in panic room but i feel like it was similar? except this time i find you more suspicious but thats unrelated i think. idk i don't usually push back that hard on people scumreading me in general

[fireisredsir]

nk15 seems to be making no effort to get townread and i like that

mala no good reason lol she was just the final name to pop into my head. it's in order of confidence and that one is very low

[fireisredsir]

i feel it in my soul

try an antacid

also this helps tbh

make more jokes

sing more songs

[fireisredsir]

my eyes kinda glazed over reading menalque earlier but i shall attempt again

[fireisredsir]

did you try an antacid

if symptoms persist ill give it a try

[fireisredsir]

ok reread and still feel very hmmmm on menalque

like 146 exactly correctly predicted my reaction to the previous post and im not sure if thats a good or a bad thing.

leaning towards not necessarily good, at least the way he went about it

[fireisredsir]

ive only played with him as scum i think but i have read some of his towngames when trying to sort previously and the vibes feel like very noticeably different to me between the two

and this does not feel like town vibes

[fireisredsir]

I didn't like that he didn't give me any pushback to scumreading him at all because I think town!him would wonder why I'm misreading him right away but scum!him might feel more scared and fearful of engaging immediately.

idk exactly how i responded to you misreading me in panic room but i feel like it was similar? except this time i find you more suspicious but thats unrelated i think. idk i don't usually push back that hard on people scumreading me in general

panic room was more cuz of the bella repout due to pressure from being a bomb theory then actually reading your play tho :<

mmm it may have been but i don't think that came across in thread, you were talking about how my tone was less confident and more careful etc. felt p similar there to here

except that there it seemed like you believed it

here idk if you really believed that from a page 1 suspicion i would just freeze up and stop posting as scum lol

[fireisredsir]

I could get here. Why is malakittens more town than save the dragons? @NK15 and @fireisredsir

mala vs save the dragons is just vibes to me. save the dragons has scummy vibes and mala has slightly towny vibes. sry if you wanted a convincing explanation lol

not very strong on mala, but im feeling less sure on datisi/menalque and ari is kinda scummy imo so mala is what's left

[fireisredsir]

SaveTD - It's mostly the charisma. I liked that he's taking more of a leadership role and he's not trying to fade into the background.

skitter do you agree with this assessment?

asking you specifically cause you disagreed with my take on std and i feel like exactly the opposite of this so if you both disagree with me there then maybe im just interpreting wrong idk

[fireisredsir]

200 from fire is a bit oof though

like i recall that fire said he wanted to wait for everyone to post before healing, but like, (1) mala had posted before (this point is pedantry tho so whatever) but (2) what about mala's 178 is something that makes you wanna heal her

(1) i got 0 from her original posts and got slightly more than 0 from that post, so by my own arbitrary guidelines of what counts, that one counted and the others didn't

(2) maybe this is overthinking but i felt like it looked too much like lazy scum mala (which at least a couple people here should know what that looks like) and unless she just like straight up doesn't care at all (in which case she will prob get caught sooner than later anyway) i thought she would make some attempt to not look like that. and yes i have talked myself out of correct scumreads like at least once a game with this logic and i am aware of that. but anyway after this i also kinda liked her questioning my heal on her, didn't feel like something she would be as likely to do as scum

[fireisredsir]

fire - i think that's not a Good reason to townread someone since just because someone knows they need to play differently doesn't mean that they CAN do that, and this is a setup where one scum lowkey benefits from looking scummy if they're also distanced enough for later, but that's a theoretical discussion that's not very helpful right now

as for her "questioning" your read on her, 216 felt more like she was asking "what do you mean now that i've posted, i've posted before" rather than "why are you townreading me for that post", which feels like something scum might do if they feel like they should enter a conversation with you but they don't want to actually make you rethink your townread or open the gates for discussion there

did anything i said give the impression that i thought it was a Good reason

your reason isn't very Good either but there isn't much to go off at this point

for your second point yea ok that's fair

[fireisredsir]

ping

fire what's your tell on datisi if he says ping

datisi did you already explain why you townread ari and if so can you explain it better

[fireisredsir]

oop that wasn't supposed to be a quote

[fireisredsir]

Guys I got malakittens+datisi scumteam in my eye and I can't get it out

I'm not even really advocating that that's definitely the scumteam it's just like... stuck there in my large elephant eye

My trunk is not quite nimble enough to hepl, someone help

hm can you talk about this more

[fireisredsir]

ok well i was kind of feeling like your more recent posting has vibes of "haha look at me i have towny thoughts processes and plans and paranoias" and less so like those things were genuine. like it feels like you care more about projecting that image of yourself than about the things themselves

and that response doesn't really help on that front

[fireisredsir]

i have vibe scumread on std

[fireisredsir]

datisi did you already explain why you townread ari and if so can you explain it better

can you answer this btw

[fireisredsir]

ok ok i didn't know if you saw it

[fireisredsir]

i am feeling somewhat less favorable towards irrelephant than i was earlier but am unsure who i would replace them with in my personal list. datisi i guess. and maybe mena over mala

HURT: all
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: skitter
HEAL: datisi
HEAL: not known 15
HEAL: menalque

[fireisredsir]

I think datisi is mad at my shading his slot in the same way I've seen happen many times when two people's playstyles don't gel (I think mine and Datisi's don't gel).

I'm over here like "I'll just play and push and pull and read and vote and see if I can achieve some stuff for town without breaking my back"
Datisi is like "Unwritten thoughts don't exist, therefore I will write all of mine and dislike any posts without every thought on paper"

And I poked at him a bit and he got mad in a self-righteous way I think is hard to fake as scum

like this just is pure scum tbh

[fireisredsir]

all the currently proposed teams (until i just changed) have either ari or irrelephant in them and im not especially excited about that

[fireisredsir]

I think datisi is mad at my shading his slot in the same way I've seen happen many times when two people's playstyles don't gel (I think mine and Datisi's don't gel).

I'm over here like "I'll just play and push and pull and read and vote and see if I can achieve some stuff for town without breaking my back"
Datisi is like "Unwritten thoughts don't exist, therefore I will write all of mine and dislike any posts without every thought on paper"

And I poked at him a bit and he got mad in a self-righteous way I think is hard to fake as scum

like this just is pure scum tbh

can you elaborate on this read. why is it scumplay?

i thought it was kinda self-evident but apparently not ???

it just feels very... narrative-setting in a slimy way. like he is deciding what datisi thought and it feels like he is twisting things to both discredit the suspicion ("oh its just a playstyle clash from both sides and we're both wrong!") and also townread datisi for it at the same time. it's also the fact that it is setting a narrative for his own play ("im over here like") that makes it out to look towny, in a way that to me makes it feel like the play was designed to appear that way. maybe it is just town that describes things in ways that happen to set off my "this is not genuine" detector, but it just feels very sus to me. now that i think about it, it kinda reminds me of tenebros in the large if y'all remember that, but he did end up being town

im actually v surprised datisi did not have the same reaction to it that i did so idk maybe i am seeing ghosts, but this was a major alarm bells post for me

[fireisredsir]

ari

why is ari scummy? i skimmed through your iso and i'm not sure i see it

your towncase somewhat convinced me not to scumread her but im still not especially trusting. i think she's been less scummy lately as well but the early game felt very much like a scum entrance to me. i didn't get much feeling of actual drive to solve behind her posts, it felt mostly like she wanted to set up a thread presence.

i also thought her scumread on me was p questionable early, not the fact that she had it, but the way in which she pushed it. 190 specifically. i just don't really believe that she genuinely thought that me not posting for 7ish hours after she page 1 suspected me was something that was scum-indicative for me.

i know neither of those are exactly the strongest scum reasons but people tell me she is scary as scum (i think i have not ever had the pleasure of experiencing it myself?) and so if i have a reason to suspect early on im not gonna let it go away completely just cause she started goodposting

[fireisredsir]

ok continuing on the irrelephant point but he seems to have a pattern, like with 427 he is sort of responding to a datisi post about suspicion on him but also really the bulk of what he's saying is about how the post affects his own read on datisi

and i know that like objectively strictly yes that maybe should actually be a towny thing to do, to care more about your reads on other people than about their reads on you

but it feels like its one step further, like its caring more about other people's perceptions of your reads on other people

and it also makes it look like it's a response to the post but actually it really isn't?? like this is obviously super reductive but it feels to me like if person A says "hey person B, I think you're scum for reason X!" and then person B's response is "*pats head* thats a nice reason you have there person A, you're town!"

and i know the post after was slightly more response-focused but still

idkk maybe it really is just a playstyle thing and i will go look at some past games to see if i should be ignoring this feeling but ahhh it makes my skin crawl reading it, just feels super slimy

[fireisredsir]

it's very pingy. my friend's brother had a penguin stuffed animal named ping-ping once. i'm trying to get fire to tr me correctly by saying ping a lot. is it working? ping.

the ping doesn't help but the non sequitur about stuffed penguins does, maybe

[fireisredsir]

hi irrel!!

why did you call me Irrel?

this is an example of an angleshooty townie post because I think he thinks at that moment in time maybe you heard someone refer to him as irrel in a scum pt and it struck him as weird you referred to him that way.

a lot of his thoughts are angleshooty in a townie way but I guess if he's good at faking angleshooty thoughts then maybe this is NAI for him?

I am kind of just going with a general profile of the player because I have no experience with him.

see like for me that post felt way too on the nose. like obviously he wants people to think that was the reason he asked. but does he seriously care or think that the line of questioning will go anywhere? like what possible answer will datisi give that will make him go "aha! you're scum!"

literally no answer

its a pointless question and it is pure performance

you said that you don't know if performativeness is AI here but this instance of it just seems way more likely to come from scum to me

[fireisredsir]

also if y'all that suspect me want to not include me alongside whoever you think is scum with me im cool with that and will be fine to vote for it if there's a consensus

mala has still done nothing really so she's a leave out and prob just is scum

nk15 sure whatever idk, i kinda feel like he believes what he's saying but wouldn't be too unhappy with him being left out

kinda want skitter and datisi in most

mena is slightly town of null, i think, maybe

ari slightly on the scummy side of null ig, and i feel like she will just win if she is scum and the coalition fails

irrel and std i want out

[fireisredsir]

Like fire you basically towncased me and then said "but it feels performative! so none of the town points count"

hmm i don't think i did this

i think there is a clear distinction between doing things that look towny and doing things that are actually towny. and the former has more scum motivation

and i was mostly saying that there are things you've done that people are surface level reading as towny (which was your goal! well done!) but that i think are in fact on a deeper level not towny

[fireisredsir]

but fire is now coming in with the same takes, only delayed

yea this is just not true at all lmao

ive been sus of std like all game, and p sure my suspicion on you developed around the same time as datisi around post 342

[fireisredsir]

mala... prob just is scum

nk15... wouldn't be too unhappy with him being left out

ari slightly on the scummy side

irrel and std i want out

you think 5 of us are scum?

???

are you trying to look so blatantly scummy that i come back around to thinking that you're not actually trying to look town and therefore you aren't scum

i kinda like that tbh

but no. I think there are 5 people who are the strongest possibilities for scum atm. nk15, in the part that you snipped out, i somewhat townread actually, so 4, I was just saying that if consensus leaves him out thats Fine, I Guess. obviously only 2 of those are actually scum. why do you think i would have the whole game solved already

[fireisredsir]

@menalque, aristeia, skitter

Who's fire's scum buddy? Or alternatively: please link me to a game where fireisredsir scumread most of the playerlist and was town

i got criticized for this in the last game i played lol i can find it if you want

it was a dumb criticism then and its dumb now

having a pool of possible suspects that is wider than the number of scum is like... normal play?? I would always much rather have my scumhunting dials calibrated so that i have too many potential scumreads than too many townreads bc it is easier for me to reason my way out of a wrong scumread than it is to reason my way out of a wrong townread

[fireisredsir]

3 scumreads, 1 slightly on the scum side of null, and 1 where i would be okay with them being left out of the coalition if that's consensus (not even saying i want them eliminated)

why do you have trouble believing that

[fireisredsir]

i have trouble believing that you have trouble believing that

[fireisredsir]

well there's only 2 mafia players in the game so I'd think you'd be trying to figure out which of your scum reads are like actually scum?

i mean, i am doing that, i just have not successfully completed the task. is there anyone in the game who has narrowed their scumreads down to 2 besides NK15? this seems like a ridiculous standard

[fireisredsir]

also I'm not even sure what your actual reasoning is for each of your scumreads and they feel kind of fluffy and ephemeral. You don't really sit down and write out why you think I'm mafia etc.

STD is just vibes afair and Irrel is kind of just echoing what Dats said.

You dropped mala from your heal list but shaded irrel/me when she's playing in a way similar to her scum meta but didn't mention her until later.

It just feels not very thought out?

i explained to datisi my thoughts on you. std i can try to explain more in depth if you want. i feel like I've spent a lot of words explaining thoughts on irrel and i don't personally feel like they're the same things datisi has said.

mala i had a slight gutread of her as town from her early posts but then datisi kinda convinced me it wasn't a good reason and also she disappeared which is +scum. there's not really much worth talking about there cause she has no content and i feel like the reasons why she could be scum are pretty obvious

[fireisredsir]

Who's your strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition and why?

well im arguing hardest for irrel to be left out bc he is currently on a lot of people's heal lists and i think he shouldn't be. mala probably has a higher chance of being scum, i guess? but she's already off the lists so i don't really need to care about that rn.

std i feel like my gut read is comparably strong to my feelings on irrel but i feel less capable of putting words to it or justifying it since multiple people have kinda shut it down previously

[fireisredsir]

basically i think if mala is scum then she is the designated "getting left out" scum and her partner is likely in a comfortable position, so i care more about making sure the coalition is clean bc that is our primary goal at the moment

[fireisredsir]

Like I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you think me being More-Widely-Townread-Than-I-Deserve (MWTTID) is scummy, look into the people townreading me, don't scumread *me*. Because MWTTID is evidence that scum is townreading me fypov, not evidence that I must be scum.

this has nothing to do with my scumread of you. i also think this was a misrepresentation when you said it before about datisi. the only connection that it has is that it makes you more likely to be in the coalition. and if you are scum then it is better for town for you to not be in the coalition. it is more prudent and more immediately important to argue for your removal than it is to hunt the possible scum who may or may not be incorrectly townreading you because our current goal is forming an all-town coalition. you attempting to redirect this onto other people is scummy imo, and certainly is not pro-town.

again. people townreading you is not part of the evidence for you being scum. it never has been. you continually misrepresenting this is, however, evidence towards you being scum

[fireisredsir]

in fact, shifting the argument in this way is p much exactly what I would expect scum to do in this position, as someone who is widely townread but is suspected by a minority. it minimizes and dismisses the case and changes the landscape of the debate to appear like its focused more around pedantic points of what exactly the case consists of rather than the actual merit of the points.

this is a pattern of scumplay in this position because your goal is not to convince me or datisi. your goal is to make it look to the people who already townread you that this argument is over nothing

[fireisredsir]

i answered ari on that question earlier, but i think that latest response pushed you up higher to be my highest scumread

i think that from your position, saying that you're working towards a coalition without you in it is a fairly empty promise given that you are the 2nd most healed person, so i don't think that means anything

[fireisredsir]

I mean it's nonsensical because he's literally saying

I have these 5 scumreads

im literally not and i refuted this the last time you said it, so the logic that follows in this post is invalid

i think you're smart enough to realize that this is clearly a misrep and so i don't really understand why you keep repeating this unless your goal is to frustrate me

ideal world if i were going solely on my own reads would be you/mala/irrel/std being left out, for example. nk is still not a scumread. you are not a strong scumread and are closer to null than scum. so if i were being left out i would prob want me to replace you in that list

that said i realize that i am not the best scumhunter here and i am also not townread enough for people to listen to me very much so i don't expect to be making a coalition solely on my own reads

[fireisredsir]

If it’s the latter, we can just agree now: neither you nor I will be in the coalition. If it’s the former, explain how I (the player who I would argue has done the most to move the game forward, but I digress) am scummier than malakittens, NK15, and your other scumread, Save the Dragons (who has the same reads as me but has done less to make the rest of the playerlist sortable).

a) yea thats fine with me, although i doubt it will happen just cause you said so

b) see it feels like you think that you deserve to be townread bc you have scored more townpoints than these other people who haven't done enough. and you seem annoyed that i am not giving you credit for your valiant attempts to score these townpoints. that's... just not how the game of mafia works. im not here to count up the townpoints that everyone has scored and calculate who has the most. im here to find scum. scum are perfectly capable of appearing like town. the point is to find which players have a scum motivation behind their actions. i believe that you do. do you think that you are incapable of scoring townpoints as scum? i read your past games and that is clearly not true.

[fireisredsir]

Who's your strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition and why?

well im arguing hardest for irrel to be left out bc he is currently on a lot of people's heal lists and i think he shouldn't be. mala probably has a higher chance of being scum, i guess? but she's already off the lists so i don't really need to care about that rn.

std i feel like my gut read is comparably strong to my feelings on irrel but i feel less capable of putting words to it or justifying it since multiple people have kinda shut it down previously

This is what you wrote so though? You seem to care more about how many people are healing Irrel than why he must be mafia.

i don't understand what that has to do with you falsely claiming that i have 5 scumreads, but ok, we can talk about this instead if you want to

i think it is more important for me to spent my energy on irrel bc if i am right and he is scum then the coalition will likely fail bc most people townread him. if i am right and mala is scum then... i don't have to do anything, bc she is already being left out. this doesn't mean that the number of heals on him makes him more likely to be scum, or that i care about that more, it just affects where i think it is worth discussing

im not really sure what your point is here tbh, maybe im missing what you're saying

[fireisredsir]

@fire: should i be townreading u now?

idk, i never really understand why people do or don't townread me. i think there's been games where i've been awkward or uncomfortable or make questionable decisions and ive understood why people scumread me for that, but i don't feel like ive done that this game

i think if you don't understand or disagree with my reads then i can get why you wouldn't since then maybe my thought process is less clear than i think it is

but i think i would be approaching things differently if i were scum here, which isn't very helpful since everyone always says that

so, idk, maybe!

i will say that i hoped when you caught up you would show up and be all like "aha fire is right irrelephant is in fact scummy!" but it's ok it was optimistic

[fireisredsir]

a) probably just playing more to the consensus and trying to work with people and spending more time just chilling. like just pick 2 or 3 people early and townread them and then try to make a block with them and work together to solve with them. i would def be aiming for getting in the coalition personally since my main skill as scum usually is getting townread (that may have changed as i spend more time on forum, idk, i haven't been scum much yet)

b) idk, i feel like my vibes are generally pretty variable in early game depending on if i have any reads i care about + whatever outside circumstances i have. and then they mostly stabilize towards normal once the game picks up a bit more. last game i felt like i had 0 confident reads for most of the game so idk why exactly you townread me, i would have expected the opposite

[fireisredsir]

also before anyone comes in like "no thats wrong!" im not saying that my description is, like, necessarily optimal scumplay or how i expect everyone else would play scum here, its just what i think i would do

[fireisredsir]

I mean like you want a bunch of people out of coalition

my point is that this isn't true. there's 3 people i actively want out atm, possibly 4 if we're including you, which i don't really think i am. ive already explained this. i don't know why you keep thinking i have 5 scumreads. i don't, i never said i did, and irrel blatantly took my words out of context when he claimed that i did. so no, my list is not too big, and so your logic does not apply

ive already said this in a previous post but if it's irrel/std/mala left out then im happy. at the time you asked originally, i said that mala was prob my strongest scumread in likelihood to be scum, but that i didn't care about pushing that scumread bc she was already going to be left out. that's why irrel was more important to me. altho now my scumread on irrel has increased so now he prob is my strongest

[fireisredsir]

ok but his explanation for why irrel is his biggest scumread is because he is likely to get in.

cite this please. if i ever said this it was not what i meant bc this has never been true for me

irrel misrepped this as well

[fireisredsir]

f it's irrel/std/mala left out then im happy.

ok this is kind of hard to get to because if we leave you/irrel/std/mala out and we try to go with mena/skitter/ari/dats/nk15 like um Nk15 is never going to vote for me or dats?

yea i know im not likely to be happy here i also already said this!

but also id vote for that so if you/mena/skitt/datisi do thats 5 anyway

[fireisredsir]

Who's your strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition and why?

well im arguing hardest for irrel to be left out bc he is currently on a lot of people's heal lists and i think he shouldn't be. mala probably has a higher chance of being scum, i guess? but she's already off the lists so i don't really need to care about that rn.

std i feel like my gut read is comparably strong to my feelings on irrel but i feel less capable of putting words to it or justifying it since multiple people have kinda shut it down previously

maybe my phrasing was unclear in that. but the answer to your question there was mala ("has a higher chance of being scum"), and i was explaining why i felt like it was worth arguing more strongly for irrel despite him not being my strongest scumread at the time

[fireisredsir]

has anything i've posted affected your read in anyway, fire

yes

i liked the bit about the penguin

[fireisredsir]

actually tho i can try to put some words to it, ik i haven't really explained it (i was wondering if ari would ask me to since it seemed like something she would do if she wanted to sort me, but she didnt)

[fireisredsir]

that was re: std. but yes I will compile my irrel reasons too

[fireisredsir]

yes that would be a misinterpretation then and its maybe my bad for not giving you a super clear "your answer is x". but yea that's not at all what i was saying. my answer at the time was mala, but it seemed like there was an implied question/confusion (not just in that quote but in the surrounding context) of "I don't get why you're pushing the people you're pushing" so i wanted to explain why i was focusing on irrel despite him not being my strongest scumread

ig cause you said "strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition"

and like

strongest scumread was mala

but strongest WANT was irrel, and the reason why my wanting/caring/focusing was more on irrel was cause he was more likely to make it in, so my level of caring about pushing him out was stronger. no need to care about pushing mala out bc she was already out. but that had no effect on my scumread, just on my level of focus

[fireisredsir]

Spoiler: irrel posts

ok well i was kind of feeling like your more recent posting has vibes of "haha look at me i have towny thoughts processes and plans and paranoias" and less so like those things were genuine. like it feels like you care more about projecting that image of yourself than about the things themselves

and that response doesn't really help on that front

I think datisi is mad at my shading his slot in the same way I've seen happen many times when two people's playstyles don't gel (I think mine and Datisi's don't gel).

I'm over here like "I'll just play and push and pull and read and vote and see if I can achieve some stuff for town without breaking my back"
Datisi is like "Unwritten thoughts don't exist, therefore I will write all of mine and dislike any posts without every thought on paper"

And I poked at him a bit and he got mad in a self-righteous way I think is hard to fake as scum

like this just is pure scum tbh

can you elaborate on this read. why is it scumplay?

i thought it was kinda self-evident but apparently not ???

it just feels very... narrative-setting in a slimy way. like he is deciding what datisi thought and it feels like he is twisting things to both discredit the suspicion ("oh its just a playstyle clash from both sides and we're both wrong!") and also townread datisi for it at the same time. it's also the fact that it is setting a narrative for his own play ("im over here like") that makes it out to look towny, in a way that to me makes it feel like the play was designed to appear that way. maybe it is just town that describes things in ways that happen to set off my "this is not genuine" detector, but it just feels very sus to me. now that i think about it, it kinda reminds me of tenebros in the large if y'all remember that, but he did end up being town

im actually v surprised datisi did not have the same reaction to it that i did so idk maybe i am seeing ghosts, but this was a major alarm bells post for me

ok continuing on the irrelephant point but he seems to have a pattern, like with 427 he is sort of responding to a datisi post about suspicion on him but also really the bulk of what he's saying is about how the post affects his own read on datisi

and i know that like objectively strictly yes that maybe should actually be a towny thing to do, to care more about your reads on other people than about their reads on you

but it feels like its one step further, like its caring more about other people's perceptions of your reads on other people

and it also makes it look like it's a response to the post but actually it really isn't?? like this is obviously super reductive but it feels to me like if person A says "hey person B, I think you're scum for reason X!" and then person B's response is "*pats head* thats a nice reason you have there person A, you're town!"

and i know the post after was slightly more response-focused but still

idkk maybe it really is just a playstyle thing and i will go look at some past games to see if i should be ignoring this feeling but ahhh it makes my skin crawl reading it, just feels super slimy

hi irrel!!

why did you call me Irrel?

this is an example of an angleshooty townie post because I think he thinks at that moment in time maybe you heard someone refer to him as irrel in a scum pt and it struck him as weird you referred to him that way.

a lot of his thoughts are angleshooty in a townie way but I guess if he's good at faking angleshooty thoughts then maybe this is NAI for him?

I am kind of just going with a general profile of the player because I have no experience with him.

see like for me that post felt way too on the nose. like obviously he wants people to think that was the reason he asked. but does he seriously care or think that the line of questioning will go anywhere? like what possible answer will datisi give that will make him go "aha! you're scum!"

literally no answer

its a pointless question and it is pure performance

you said that you don't know if performativeness is AI here but this instance of it just seems way more likely to come from scum to me

Like I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you think me being More-Widely-Townread-Than-I-Deserve (MWTTID) is scummy, look into the people townreading me, don't scumread *me*. Because MWTTID is evidence that scum is townreading me fypov, not evidence that I must be scum.

this has nothing to do with my scumread of you. i also think this was a misrepresentation when you said it before about datisi. the only connection that it has is that it makes you more likely to be in the coalition. and if you are scum then it is better for town for you to not be in the coalition. it is more prudent and more immediately important to argue for your removal than it is to hunt the possible scum who may or may not be incorrectly townreading you because our current goal is forming an all-town coalition. you attempting to redirect this onto other people is scummy imo, and certainly is not pro-town.

again. people townreading you is not part of the evidence for you being scum. it never has been. you continually misrepresenting this is, however, evidence towards you being scum

in fact, shifting the argument in this way is p much exactly what I would expect scum to do in this position, as someone who is widely townread but is suspected by a minority. it minimizes and dismisses the case and changes the landscape of the debate to appear like its focused more around pedantic points of what exactly the case consists of rather than the actual merit of the points.

this is a pattern of scumplay in this position because your goal is not to convince me or datisi. your goal is to make it look to the people who already townread you that this argument is over nothing

main points summarized:

1) the big thing is that it feels like he cares more about looking towny than about actually doing pro-town things

2) his responses to peoples suspicions about him have felt slimy to me, like he is dodging the point and trying to make it about something else in a way that feels deliberate. he has done this multiple times

3) i think his tone in responses as well has felt like he is frustrated that he isn't getting as much credit as he expected to from doing things that look surface-level towny. this frustration seems more likely to come from scum than town to me

4) his positioning in general and the way that he chooses to engage with different people seems dependent on what benefits him rather than coming from a genuine town solvy mindset

5) not really a key point, but i did read some previous games and he is well in his scumrange, and he is capable of making towny-looking progressions and being proactive as scum, so i don't think people should be townreading him for that despite his complaints otherwise

[fireisredsir]

std:

ok i haven't really played much with std but i did meta read a bunch of games when i was trying to sort him in large 238 d1. i felt like i got a decent feel for how he approaches games differently as town vs scum, and thought that he was likely scum that game, so that's why i TA checked him n1. unfortunately he was traitor so i got a false inno

i feel somewhat hesitant to even try to justify this read bc i don't think im going to explain it very well but whatever

basically i feel like there is a certain energy that he has when town, like he is generally excited to solve the game and also just... wants to be there. he usually has reads that it feels like he really cares about, or even if he doesn't exactly, he still is trying to work with people and help move the game forward

as scum he has fine read progressions and etc and still can joke around and whatnot but he lacks that town energy. he seems content to be a background character and pop up occasionally with a Good Post, and yet not really drive things. when i read posts that he makes as scum i picture him making a face and being like "ugh do i have to do this".

here is a recent scumgame that i feel is illustrative:
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=88804&user_select[]=629
and a towngame:
viewtopic.php?p=13237692&user_select%5B ... #p13237692

these were just the first ones i saw but i think p much any of them would fit imo

i think his iso this game looks way closer to his usual scumgame. ive thought that since like his first 3 posts so maybe im confbiased idk, and maybe he's just lacking energy due to non-alignment-related reasons, but idk its still the read i have

if anyone who has played with him more than me thinks that this take is way off then im willing to reconsider

[fireisredsir]

I think fireisredsir's refusal to heal anyone is anti-town, because it hides thought processes.

...what? im healing people and have never refused to

rn i am healing me/skitt/datisi/menalque/nk15, which is still my preferred even if nk doesn't like it

[fireisredsir]

irrel misrepped this as well

how come when aristeia reads your words this way it's a misunderstanding, and when I do it it's misrepping

honestly its probably that ive played with ari more so i know her better and i feel more inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. is that fair? no! i think its reasonable to assume that if she was misunderstanding me then you were too

tbf tho i wasn't ever saying that she was and you weren't, at the time of the post you quoted i thought you both were misrepping me

[fireisredsir]

This is how your words read to me. I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I'm just pointing out that it feels silly from my point of view that you're scumreading me for thinking that I'm towny or for "thinking I've earned townpoints". I do think I'm towny - not just in easily fakeable tone, but in how much I've helped town. In fact I've been working my butt off to sort the playerlist and push the not-yet-sortable players - heck, you & datisi & aristeia are all much more readable - to EVERYONE - because I pushed you for reads and/or got under your skin.

i mean yes that is more or less true, but just because you are actively doing things and pushing people and making them more sortable does not necessarily mean that you are helping town more than you are helping scum.

there are plenty of scum players on this site who like to take a very active role in leading the game so that they can control things and set up the gamestate they want. most of this plist just got out of a game with scum!prism where she did exactly that. so i don't think that it is inherently towny for you to do that.

that's why i think its important to look at what motivations players like that have and what narratives they are trying to set. when i looked at yours, i found them scummy

[fireisredsir]

Oh yeah. Well forget me, I'm 100% tunneled on a townie, aren't I. Like 1/4 of my scumread on you was your refusal to use heals but that was just something you said earlygame and not actually a behavior you acted out.

I'm losing my mind, aren't I. I'm getting in fights with people about how towny I am in a game where towncasing yourself is basically a scumclaim.

I am happy I joined this game, I am mostly having fun, but my brain feels like mush and I think I used to be better at this. Sorry if you're town, fire, I can't tell anymore

and speaking of prism/last game, nice reflective stepback, but i have learned these tricks and shall not be fooled!

actual response:
maybe i am tunneled as well but i can't help but read this as scum attempting to defuse the situation and get both of us to reassess. and yea there is a world where you're town here, but it just isn't the one that im seeing as most likely rn

[fireisredsir]

I'm very much intentionally channeling players like RC, Shoshin, the worst... players whose play I think is really good at rooting out scum, but who also got/get scumread all the time for it because it's not easy to follow.

maybe our lovely quackup mod has changed since you were last around, but i don't think i have ever even considered scumreading a post of his. the one time i did i felt immediately guilty for it. they are too pure

[fireisredsir]

Well lucky you I'm voting for a coalition I'm not in.

For you to continue scumreading me, I think you have to assume my partner is also widely coalition'd? I guess you would probably argue it's dragons

yea either that or you don't actually expect to be left out of the coalition despite your stated willingness to be

[fireisredsir]

and speaking of prism/last game

also nice now I'm getting scumread for how good prism is at being scum, cool,

don't worry that was just a joke for the other people who were in that game

[fireisredsir]

i'm worried i'm townreading someone i shouldn't be

its probably std imo

what did you think of my post about him

[fireisredsir]

I kinda wish I was playing the scumgame you think I am. Talking more than almost anyone, manipulating everyone's read and the entire gamestate to my liking, leaving BOTH my scum partner and myself out of the coalition just KNOWING it'll get me so widely townread I end up in the coalition even though one player is tunneling me

i know this is slightly tongue in cheek but i don't think you really would have had much choice in the matter, you were solidly in the coalition and if you like doubled down on that and were like "no im not leaving" i think it would just make you look worse

and you probably, in this hypothetical world, would have expected that the townreads people have on you and scumreads people have on me would have meant that my tunnel would have largely been disregarded

[fireisredsir]

ari i would like your thoughts on std if you have them

you said earlier you thought he was taking more of a leadership role this game, both me and skitter disagree with that. do you still feel that way?

[fireisredsir]

fire if you could take one person out of my coalition (datisi, aristeia, skitter, std, menalque) who would it be. And if you could take out two who would it be? In theory this would be to put you or you+me in

std, after that would probably be ari

[fireisredsir]

i mean maybe i don't like that the read on me hasn't evolved into a tr

but i am a little bothered it was just scum right out of the gate and it hasn't changed at all despite me trying my best

ik sorry i really have considered at multiple points if my read is wrong but i still feel it. and i know there isn't really much for you to push back against or refute which is part of why i haven't really been pushing it. ig if you're town just keep doing you and maybe someday I'll see it

[fireisredsir]

on coalitions i am okay with skitter's even tho its not my favorite. i also imagine that everyone will be ok (unless it really is just nk/mala) with it bc i don't think its right

[fireisredsir]

Datisi [5]: Datisi, Aristeia, skitter30, Menalque, Irrelephant11

i think i like this one more atm but its not a big difference

[fireisredsir]

oh thats huge actually

[fireisredsir]

Ari I just don't think I've seen enough from overall to be in any way confident – if I absolutely had to, lean town UNLESS fire is scum in which case she's scum

im curious if you have a convincing reason for this (more for the "not with anyone else" part) bc if you do then that would also be helpful for me

[fireisredsir]

i was thinking maybe leave out mala/me/fire/std?

what do people think of that ?

im ok with that but if 2 people outside of it are ok with it what are the chances its right

then again i guess what are the chances that scum being left out will loudly oppose a correct solve

[fireisredsir]

I guess I could be ok with irrel instead of STD if that's what fire wants.

my brain is mushy on those two

what makes you want to take what i want into account? what's your read on me now?

[fireisredsir]

...............................................................................................can'ttellifthat'sajoke

I think I'm in a much more serious playerlist than I thought I was, overall, actually. Like that one time I was really funny and fire got so mad because I didn't immediately answer his question. also now
am I the only one having fun??

i wasn't mad, you not answering just didn't really do anything to make me think you were town

im having fun!!

[fireisredsir]

was thinking maybe leave out mala/me/fire/std?

I find this interesting. I'm curious for fire to actually pick who he would remove from the coalition, and if it would be me like his previous reads would suggest. Seems risky to bet the game on NK15 being town, though. Like his potential partner could still be.... skitter, or menalque, or datisi, or even maybe std, really. And almost nothing rules him out as scum

from this one? i guess so, yeah. we're not betting the game on it tho, we're just betting not winning the d1 game. and if youre saying he can be partners with skitt/mena/datisi then leaving him out isn't like a lock anyway

[fireisredsir]

anyway this is interesting. Honestly like 50-70% of my townread on datisi was that you and skitter both townread him (if one/two of you is town you're hopefully right, if you're both scummy mafs, well then by pure maths he's still town). I don't really wanntttt to reconsider my townread on datisi but good to know that I shouldn't assume NK15's potential scum partner is in the nullread pile he made

um you probably shouldn't rely on my townread of dats very much because I am very biased and I don't think I ever scumread him ~__~

like he's just so handsome how can you scumread that face with that smile.

it is really difficult

[fireisredsir]

well if we're lockscumming mala for not playing then he can't really be partners with anyone but mala?

idk if we are but that does seem to be one of the most likely pairings fmpov

[fireisredsir]

i have ari/irrel marked as unlikely in my logic puzzle grid but i was too dumb to write any notes of justification for it so i don't remember why (:

[fireisredsir]

ha i already knew that fact cause i went looking earlier

[fireisredsir]

i have ari/irrel marked as unlikely in my logic puzzle grid but i was too dumb to write any notes of justification for it so i don't remember why (:

it must be my very smooth interactions with our favorite elephant and I don't bother to pocket my partners in thread usually.

it probably was interactions-based yea

most of them were about who wanted who in their coalitions but there were a few other reasonings

[fireisredsir]

mala, rn you are likely to be left out of the coalition unless people really start thinking you're towny quickly

with that in mind, who else do you think should be left out?

[fireisredsir]

so like for example you would be ok with a skitter/irrel/fire/nk/mena coalition?

not sure how likely that would be just curious

[fireisredsir]

mala can you talk about why your nk read changed

[fireisredsir]

mala can you talk about why your nk read changed

its probably because he says me/dats r s/s and being weird and she supposedly has the same idea

why do you keep asking her softball questions?

bc i want to figure out who makes sense as her partner if she's scum

[fireisredsir]

to put it another way.

I don't understand your curiosity about things that you should already know

i wanted to see how she would talk about coalition forming under the assumption that she was being left out, or if she was willing to do so. i found this very useful when you did this, actually, since the coalitions you proposed meant i could rule certain scum partners for you as very unlikely

i also wanted to see how she talked about nk (yes i can guess what her answer would be if she's town, thats why I asked, so I can see if her progression makes sense), especially since he is a clear possible partner

[fireisredsir]

like the more opinions people give on what coalitions they're okay with forming, the better

[fireisredsir]

i kinda want ari in now

[fireisredsir]

i think if ari is scum she's likely scum with someone who is already in, and so there is very little utility to leaving her out

[fireisredsir]

i mean being left out is not the same as elimination

in fact it makes you less likely to be eliminated

unless you're scum in which case it makes it more likely the coalition succeeds and you just lose

[fireisredsir]

HURT: all
HEAL: skitter
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: datisi
HEAL: aristeria
HEAL: menalque

i think this is a winning coalition, and in the worlds where it isn't, i think we weren't going to get a winning coalition anyway lol

kinda not expecting this will be the one that gets the votes and thats cool but just putting on record what i want

[fireisredsir]

fire, if you swap out skitter and Relly then we have a deal

you're gonna have to sell me on why

[fireisredsir]

oh wait jk it has you in it

yes std out is a very key difference there

[fireisredsir]

fire, if you swap out skitter and Relly then we have a deal

you're gonna have to sell me on why

more on the skitter side than the irrel side i already understand your thoughts there mostly

[fireisredsir]

Fire I have to go make lunch but can you remind me your scumcase on std (can be quotes of your own posts, but also if there’s anything new) and I’ll write a towncase on him and we’ll see who, uh… idk, wins?

p much just 565

ik this is likely not to be very convincing to anyone else unless they happen to be picking up the same vibes

i could go through and pull things out and explain possible scum motivations behind them but with 0 flips i don't think thats likely to really get us anywhere. if there's something from him that you think he just absolutely could not have done as scum feel free to point it out and ill take a look and see what i think

[fireisredsir]

if there's something from him that you think he just absolutely could not have done as scum feel free to point it out and ill take a look and see what i think

std if you want to argue your case you are welcome to do this for yourself as well sometimes that is actually convincing for me

[fireisredsir]

ik im the one who is supposed to have the burden of proof in this situation

so i mean only if you want to

[fireisredsir]

i don't really have std and nk as most likely partners so i don't have an answer to that

i did have nk and mena as unlikely and i will try to look for why

[fireisredsir]

maybe it was just the way in which he is failing to answer mena's question lol

doesn't seem very partner-y, but apparently nk is not great at working together anyway

[fireisredsir]

fire can you show me you've actually re-assessed your read of me at any point

i am going to do a full reread now with what you've said in mind and see if i can see it from the perspective you've given

[fireisredsir]

ok im looking for places where std is driving the game and taking charge

his entrance def is not

his series of posts 101, 105, 106 i don't feel like is. naked vote/heals and then has to be prodded to explain them? the explanations are fine, but it's not very active.

121 and 122 not really it either. im looking for places where you are trying to move the game forward and get things going. you're present so far, yes, but it's all reactive and p passive.

139 is the first one! this is a proactive question. gj. townpoints

the thing with menalque 152 is... ok, i didn't love the way that you pretty quickly backed off on it once challenged. it could be town who is honestly unsure of things, but to me it felt and feels like scum being hesitant to put yourself out there and feeling like you may have bit off a bit more than you could chew and wanting to get back out

174 and 176 kinda towny, moving things forward, ig i can see why ari felt you had more of that energy since you were engaging with her here (actually makes me feel better about ari since i didn't understand why she read you that way)

you engaged with me a little around 204 but idk if thats very ai since i had just called out my suspicion on you

next is 292. fine, but fairly passive. then some theory talk with menalque which doesn't do much for me either way. 301 kinda towny tho.

432 is what i was talking about as a Good Post. like on the face of it yea ig it looks sorta towny, but you are capable of doing that as scum, and to me it doesn't really look that active. none of it really demands or even expects a response. it clarifies your own reads, but doesn't push things forward. and that's fine! im not saying you shouldn't make those posts or that you're scum bc of them. im just saying they aren't what make you town

494 and surrounding is p good. active engagement. that said, i feel like at this point sorting based on this gets a little bit murkier bc you've already been called out for it now, and so as scum you likely would make an attempt to rectify that.

so...

i think there are some places where i felt like you were being proactive and trying to move things forward. i still feel like they were relatively minor, and for most of the game you were content to be in the background. in the scum game i linked earlier though you also did ask people questions and engage with them at times, so it's not like that's clearing. i think you did it there even more than this, game, actually. idk. i feel like my read has slightly improved but not enough for it to not be a scumread.

[fireisredsir]

Let’s just do me/fire/std/NK15/mala
Simple, easy, everyone can get on biard

this is 200iq actually, bc if the coalition fails we elim inside the coalition, so we can just put top scumreads in there instead and then chain lim them all

new meta

@Fire I don’t think you’ll keep both me and std out of the coalition. Which of us do you scumread more and why?
(Towncasing std currently)

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other so for me its kind of a package deal actually. i can see reasons to townread you both so idk it might depend on who else is being left out. if i absolutely have to pick one without any other context i probably want std in

[fireisredsir]

std - based 90% on vibes I think he's town, needs a re-eval before end of phase. Could be scum with anyone, really, except fire

what changed from this, irrel?

[fireisredsir]

why do you think we're partners

i felt like the way irrel was positioning himself earlier was setting up a narrative of either him or you being scum (he talked about it in a kind of weird 3rd person way in 644 and 649). he has also at times taken steps towards seeing that exactly one of you/him would be in the coalition. post 478 was especially notable, where he said he was willing to leave himself out alongside mala/nk/me, sort of like a reaching across the aisle thing to compromise with me i guess. and of my scumreads he chose you to be the one remaining in the coalition

[fireisredsir]

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other

this is actually a major reason I townread std

std - based 90% on vibes I think he's town, needs a re-eval before end of phase. Could be scum with anyone, really, except fire

what changed from this, irrel?

[fireisredsir]

to be specific

it sounds like in quote 1 that you are saying that you are townreading him bc you agree his most likely partner is you, and you know you're town, so therefore he doesn't have any likely partners fypov

but in quote 2 you say he could be scum with anyone

[fireisredsir]

does anyone have a strong read on menalque and if so can they explain it

[fireisredsir]

does anyone have a strong read on menalque and if so can they explain it

i don't have a "strong" read but

i think my point for him being town in 317 is still pretty decent

also i'm skimming over his iso and he just... vibes town? i guess this will be p difficult to explain when my experience with him is in ballpark of 20 games, but i'd usually get a vibe when he's being actively manipulative and trying to get things his way, and i just don't get that feeling right now

like i'd imagine if he's scum here he'd be acting with a bit more force to him, which is kind of similar to my ari read but it still applies

i can probably point out specific posts if needed but

this helps ty

[fireisredsir]

ok yea i want skitter/datisi/ari/menalque

fine with whoever is consensus of me/irrel/std in the last spot

[fireisredsir]

ok yea i want skitter/datisi/ari/menalque

fine with whoever is consensus of me/irrel/std in the last spot

What’s *your* townread of Menalque based on? Maybe I missed it

sheeping skitter and datisi, mostly

i wasn't very convinced but had him slightly town of null, and then when i was considering possibilities outside of my main scumreads i didn't really remember why i had him as unlikely

but then what they said made sense to me

[fireisredsir]

a few things about 1056

1) it's really cute

2) i think its really unlikely actually that datisi would townread you in this game relatively easily as scum if he has scumread you in like every previous game. cause i think that scumtisi can be quite neurotic about that sort of thing and tbh his townread feels a little lazy in a way that i think he would just not really be brave enough to do as scum. maybe i am underestimating the level of big brain play he could pull off but idk there's just so many ways it could backfire that it doesn't seem worth it. he does like to play up his paranoia since he knows it gets him townread, you may be suspicious of an easy townread (and you'll probably townread him either way), others may see it as pockety/partnery/etc, so there's like no benefit to the path he's taken

3) i guess there is a world where you are partners maybe but again i cannot really imagine this would be the path you would have chosen to take

4) so basically i kinda want you both in @skitter pls

[fireisredsir]

i think the argument that mena would be trying to control the game or have a presence slightly more unless he actually planned to be left out is a good one

[fireisredsir]

HURT: all
HEAL: me, ari, dats, irrel, std

i am ok with this, like ideal world for me would have me in for one of irrel/std and maaaaybe mena for the other one but eh its ok

[fireisredsir]

Menalque has only posted more than nk15 and malakittens, numerically. Fun fact

I think the argument that mena would post more as scum if anyone had ever scumread him and didn’t post more because everybody townread him without needing to do extra work nearly nullifies that. Like he may not have been manipulative because he was seemingly a sure bet for the coalition

getting in the coalition doesn't end the game tho, i think that he would have had to work harder to keep up with people towning it up in order to go the distance

[fireisredsir]

idk if the conclusion is "therefore town", exactly, since i think he would get eliminated before elo in that scenario

it's more "therefore prob not most likely to be scum who wanted to be in the coalition"

[fireisredsir]

I really do think that unless its like exactly mala/mk we're going wronf somewhere ....

full disclosure this made me want to convince you of irrel/std and then that made me paranoid that you said it in order to make me want to convince you

not a lasting paranoia but still

can you explain more of your thought process when you said this

it would make me feel better

[fireisredsir]

i think the two current competing coalitions are dats/mena/skitt/irrel/ari and skitt/ari/dats/irrel/std

i'm not actually sure i haven't been following the votes carefully i don't work well under pressure ahhhh enjoy the holiday tho!!

if these are the two options i like the former better and can consolidate onto it if we're doing that

[fireisredsir]

well that makes me like it even more

[fireisredsir]

HURT: all
HEAL: datisi
HEAL: menalque
HEAL: skitter
HEAL: irrelephant
HEAL: ari

[fireisredsir]

would be funny if after all this it is just nk/mala

[fireisredsir]

whats the sticking point for you

[fireisredsir]

hm

[fireisredsir]

well rip

this doesn't really change how i feel about skitter/datisi/ari

i think

idk maybe ill reread

[fireisredsir]

i also didn't really want mena/irrel/std in, if that was wrong then mb but also i kinda still don't think it was wrong

[fireisredsir]

bye skitter have a good weekend!!

[fireisredsir]

ig if it isn't exactly irrel/std then maybe i can trust std is town now

[fireisredsir]

i thought std thoughtdump was p helpful actually so i was gonna do the same but im kinda sleepy so maybe ill do it tomorrow instead

briefly tho

i don't really think skitter needs to take the choices she's made here if she were scum so i still think thats town

but i also don't think i really agree with the conclusions she came to as a reaction to the coalition failing

i think ari is largely making good points here

[fireisredsir]

i don't have the brain for good thoughts rn but i really think its irrelephant

and i feel some amount of dread at the prospect of attempting to convince a sufficient number of people to agree with that

but ill try later

for now, only conclusions, no thoughts

VOTE: Irrelephant

[fireisredsir]

ik and i think thats prob true for skitter too

mostly want to talk to datisi about it cause it felt like he had similar thoughts at first and then ended up at a townread somehow and im not sure why exactly

[fireisredsir]

zzz idk

was sheeping skitt and datisi on it and i kinda believe their points

but he would def be my 2nd choice after irrel but i also think irrel was intentionally flipping opinion on him late in the coalition phase bc he realized he didn't have a very good viable miselim set up and that menalque would do nicely

but maybe im just wrong on irrel and it is mena idk

[fireisredsir]

i do think it is like 90% in [irrel, mena]

but i also like really hope it is bc if its any of the other 3 they are all scary and i do not feel confident in my ability to figure out which one is fooling me bc i have more or less convinced myself on all of them being town for various reasons

[fireisredsir]

as the game was progressing, i felt more and more that my reasons for scumreading irrel were personal nonsense rather than actual good reasons and that if i tried to look at it from a neutral perspective, i could feel he actually was moving the game forward and being active in trying to solve it. like i plan to at least double check my work there this day phase but yeah not my first choice within the coalition i guess?

i did feel like this at times which was why i ended up being ok with him being in bc i accepted i could just be wrong

but then when it failed, like... i don't really think it's anyone else?

idk i still think 427 is really scummy and im still surprised you don't, just the way he was kind of dodging your points and calling you town for making them instead is ew to me

i feel like he did an excellent reflective stepback on me in a way that seemed scummy

ugh see this is what i mean these points aren't even great how can i convince other people when i can't even explain why i think he's scum

[fireisredsir]

i mean rationally the takeaway here is probably that im wrong lol so i probably should either accept that or have a little more confidence in myself but oh well here we are

[fireisredsir]

and like I'm not sure I see Irrel - STD as a scum team because of some of the things STD has said today about himself being on the same page with Irrel[which is like kind of mindboggling to do if you're S-S]

i mean they did start saying that only after i already said i thought they were most likely to be partners with each other so to me it just looks like they were trying to damage control and make it look like one pocketed the other even tho idk if that really reflects the actual progression of things

[fireisredsir]

did you check if he does this in other games by any chance? i see you said you were going to

only to the extent where i felt he was not out of his scumrange and that he does like to effort and be in control of things as scum, i didn't like do an in depth comparison between town and scum looking for tells

mostly cause its p stale meta since he hasn't played much in like years

[fireisredsir]

hmm

that line from scum!irrel with no other scum in the coalition would only make sense if he was decently sure nobody would actually follow him on it. idk it lowkey feels like "vote me out today vote x out tomorrow" kinda thing if it's from scum - depending how hard he was being townread by everyone at that point... i'll think about it if/when i need to

i did feel like he was doing things that he felt people wouldn't follow him on, fwiw, especially when he was saying he was ok with being left out of the coalition

like i think that was p unlikely to ever happen

[fireisredsir]

well that's just stellar. i should probably reassess my read on him while keeping in mind that i can't write things off as townie because "scum probably doesn't effort this much" or for similar reasons like that

ik you don't like secondhand meta but it was a pain to go through and find his scumgames so here was one that did have a good amount of effort to it if you want to look

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77737&user_select%5B%5D=31377

[fireisredsir]

which is also a heaven/hell game which is at least vaguely similar from what i gather

[fireisredsir]

i just woke up from my nap

i had a dream that me/skitter/dats were drinking at a bar

I snoozing on Datisi's shoulder because I had a bit too much to drink and his shoulder smelled nice

Skitter was fighting with the waiter because she had too much to drink and he wanted her to drink this giant pitcher of water and she was not having any of that.

Not terribly useful but just something cute I wanted to share. <3

i picture people as looking like their avatars

was skitter a tiger

[fireisredsir]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=89344

I read that thread and decided in my next town game I would try some new stuff to defuse t/t arguments and create town cohesion. You’re scumreading my new town trick. I don’t think I’ve ever done such a graceful defuse thing as scum. Guess this is wifom coming from me but at least I can point to the reason I did that

hmm ok ty idk how much i really buy that since it was defusing an argument between you and someone else which i feel like is a substantially different scenario than creating town cohesion but i will consider this

[fireisredsir]

ok some thoughts on this phase so far

skitter: i don't really think she has that reaction to the coalition failing as scum? like yea obviously the play is to look like frustrated town and to be all like "ah i knew we should have done this instead", but the thing is that i don't think the direction she went was ever gonna hold up?? like i feel like doing that is only ever going to weaken her position (and it did, datisi started scumreading her more for it). and its just not really the kind of play i have seen from scum skitter, i don't see why she fakes that and weakens herself just for a hope at a tonal townread. that's not at all what I would expect from scum skitter

ari: ari feels genuine to me this phase in her responses to skitter. it feels to me like she is really trying to solve and advance town wincon with her posts without necessarily pushing the narrative that she wants. i also think the whole "ill just sheep skitter" followed by "i wouldn't do that as scum because it's giving up too much thread control" is like... she made literally those exact two posts as town, about skitter, in the previous game, as town. i just... do not think she would mirror herself that hard as scum bc its like way too noticeable for me/skitt/datisi who were in that game as well. maybe that's dumb. idk.

datisi: datisi i feel has somewhat painted himself into a corner if he is scum here by having too many townreads. i really just don't think he's scum cause imo he would be playing up the paranoia way more (which i think tbh everyone would expect him to be doing anyway) and he literally would need that paranoia to be kicking in right about now so that he can have a believable progression on whoever he wants to miselim next day phase. he would end up being fine without it, probably, but i feel like its just kinda risky and limiting his options too much. im less confident about the townread on ari point tho cause i went and looked and he did similarly townread her as scum in the large 238 without much explanation (altho he did think she was traitor secretly)

ive realized that a lot of these points are "i don't think this person would do this as scum" which i also realize is probably not the strongest reasoning even tho it is something that i tend to do a lot. idk. maybe i should accept at some point that i don't actually know what other people would do, but its more fun to imagine that i do

anyway i think these are all town and will be very unlikely to vote for them unless someone really convinces me or mena and irrel have both died and flipped town in which case i hope im nk'd by that point cause i don't want to have to figure that shit out

[fireisredsir]

also side note but i really like this setup

its so cool having a day 1 where everyone is still alive but we also have a bunch of voting pattern info and some mech info from the coalition forming phase

i almost don't even mind that we got it wrong cause this way we get to play more (((:

maybe its a different feeling being outside the coalition vs inside lol

[fireisredsir]

[fireisredsir]

what do you expect scum!skitter to do

in short, suspect people for good reasons. like ive only ever seen early game scum skitter but i mostly remember her saying lots of reasonable things that most people would agree with and couldn't really be disputed that easily.

so id think she would express some paranoia around you and/or datisi to keep those options open but i don't really think she'd jump to you as a team right off the bat and then also back off right after. as someone widely townread she doesn't really have to lead and can just prod around a bit and let other people convince her of things

her reaction does follow from what she wanted earlier, so it isn't like out of nowhere, but it feels like she just jumped headfirst into the fire for no good reason... ok actually wait there is one possible good reason which is if she is partnered with irrel/mena. but anyway outside of that i just don't expect scum skitter to do things for no good reason

maybe im wrong on that and if you can convince me that there is a good reason (outside of just matching town tone, don't think she needs that) or of her doing similar things in the past as scum then i can reconsider

[fireisredsir]

correct me if I'm wrong but you're townreading her for making a bad push against me?

well i kinda thought it was more nuanced than that

i think specifically in the position she is in in the current gamestate with the current level of suspicion on her she would be more likely to lose standing by making that push and there's very little she could gain from it, and i think she as scum would know that

i also was townreading her already so i mean its not like its my only reason

[fireisredsir]

ok yes i know i am not as good at scum as some people here

but that was actually my point, like i think that her making a somewhat weak kneejerk reactionary push on you and then backing off actually makes it harder for her to shape the game-state towards mis-eliminating townies because

1) it weakens her position as a universal townread and as a town leader
2) it somewhat discredits any later pushes she makes in the same direction since you can easily push back on it and gives you more control
3) it's not likely to be immediately successful, there's still a lot of day left to play

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

i think that if scum skitter were to push you she would do it more methodically and logically build it up. that's my point.

[fireisredsir]

maybe the response is just "she thought it would work out and it didn't" but idk again my impression of scum skitter is that she is not that impulsive and plans things out better than that

[fireisredsir]

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

I mean she doesn't know how the push will go before she makes it?

like everything involves risk. You're townreading her for her push failing. This is kind of similar to Prism trying to push me and getting shoved back and doing a reflexive stepback.

Mafia do not know which pushes will work when they try them - they can only make an educated guess and try their best.

i guess so, i did think of prism briefly. i still think the situation is different since prism knew she was always going to get eliminated at some point that game, and skitter at the start of this phase was the most widely townread player. it seems like more risk than is necessary for not much reward, compared to making a more logical and methodical push

i also do not think that she would have much expectation of a knee jerk reaction to coalition failure as being a push that would work out. i think the main potential benefit to it is looking town, but that's unnecessary when almost everyone already thinks she's town

[fireisredsir]

the "put all the consensus scumreads in" strategy is optimal tbh

[fireisredsir]

i mean, yes, but i don't exactly townread people for having nonsense thought processes either - like nothing stopping scum!her from being in the same situation

you don't have to townread her for it but i also don't really see why her actions are more likely to come from her as scum

[fireisredsir]

actually ty that explanation helps a lot i didn't really understand why you were so interested in that point

not sure i entirely agree on it being scummy but i get now why you're pushing the way that you are

[fireisredsir]

maybe you had already said that and im just slow

but something about the way you said that made it make more sense

[fireisredsir]

well i think that one made sense why you were pushing it i just disagreed. but that was also more the point about her trying to get you eliminated with the push early this phase

i still am not sold on that one

this was more about her actions last phase around who she wanted in the coalition vs vs who she was townreading vs who she was taking action towards putting in the coalition and how those may or may not all line up and why thats potentially sus

[fireisredsir]

but also i didn't really think you were scummy for your points about skitter but i kinda was getting nervous about datisi in the last 2 or 3 pages since it felt focused more on her doing weird/inconsistent things and less about if those things actually would help her as scum

but then the explanation made it make more sense to me so thats gone away i think

[fireisredsir]

hi

i might just be dumb and it might just be mena but might as well wait to see what he says when he comes back since i think town mena under pressure has some precedent for towntelling and solving

so i don't mind the wagon being there rn and may join it at some point but that point is not yet

[fireisredsir]

i also think nk15 is scum

[fireisredsir]

i also like datisi triangles

[fireisredsir]

with every outside coalition person either already voting or willing to vote mena (fmpov everyone is, ig you could argue im faking willingness to vote, but w/e), either

1) someone is bussing
2) there's 2 scum in coalition
3) mena isn't scum

1 seems like a poor choice considering you aren't likely to really get much cred for it

2... maybe, i guess. purely on associations i feel like skitt or ari would be more likely than datisi/irrel? but on play i think those are town so idk

[fireisredsir]

I don't think it's believable that StD's reads are real. I don't think that it makes sense that StD is suddenly okay with my posts and alright with my being on the coalition only to then immediately switch back to me being scummy for fundamentally a reason that has been consistent from the start of the game.

if that reason were genuinely compelling to StD, StD would not have been okay with me going on the coalition. if it were not, and that's why he changed his mind, then his reasons for scum reading me now would be different but all we've had is critiques of Datisi's towncase and a return to the "performative" argument. along with some very non-specific "shallow ISO" comments that haven't been evidenced at all

i read this and at first i thought hmm yes this is a good point

but then i realized that im p sure i had a v similar trajectory on irrel

i scumread off some earlier posts, then near the end of coalition forming i was starting to get convinced he could be town, and then as soon as it failed i was like nope nvm. and when asked for reasons on this i mostly threw my hands up and went "ugh idk BAD VIBES" and then pointed out some of the stuff that i scumread him for originally

so i guess i can see how std as town would have a similar path on you. the most damaging part to this is 1097 where he says he has felt good about the slot, idk, even if i was feeling slightly more optimistic about irrel at end of phase i don't think i ever phrase it in that way. he does have more of a townread on you for more of the phase than i thought, so ig the trajectory is somewhat different.

but considering he said his 4 strongest townreads were (ari, skitter, irrel, datisi) the progression still makes sense to me. it feels like you're looking for normal-mafia-game-vote-progressions, but thats not what we have here. he was open to having the coalition as is, and now that it fails he needs to find who isn't actually town. so from that perspective, engaging primarily with datisi's towncase and saying why he disagrees with it actually makes a lot of sense

[fireisredsir]

i also do not understand the point you're making with the performative quote thing at the end of your post

[fireisredsir]

generally agree with std's response to the case more than i agree with the case

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Irrelephant 11
No one except me so far has said that this game isn't just out of skitter's or ari's scumrange but also not outside of Irrelephant's scumrange. And with the recent trajectory I wonder if Mena is right and the team is STD/Irrelephant

lol

[fireisredsir]

why do you think im partnered with nk15

why do you think nk15 is scum

It’s not an associative-based read, you’re both my individual top picks for scum

I’m going to answer the second part after I hear back from NK15 on my most recent question

don't think you ever answered the second part

why do these points you're making about lack of progression and lack of believable reasons for reads apply to std and not nk15

like what made him your target for today instead of nk when they were previously both your top scumreads

[fireisredsir]

nk do you wanna talk about how during coalition forming you were dead set on one team and nothing in the world would make you reassess but then now you've proposed like uh... 5 different teams now or something? and keep jumping to a new one and disregarding whatever the previous one that you were convinced of was?

[fireisredsir]

Aristeia I forgot to say: you're scum for using the light theme of MS. Dark theme only for us townies

i use sepia what does that make me

[fireisredsir]

yea no mena/nk case necessary, id be down to vote there as well

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Irrelephant 11
No one except me so far has said that this game isn't just out of skitter's or ari's scumrange but also not outside of Irrelephant's scumrange. And with the recent trajectory I wonder if Mena is right and the team is STD/Irrelephant

lol

"lol" in this was short for "if it's mena/nk team then mena just facepalmed so hard from this post"

[fireisredsir]

Okay I’m tired enough to sleep now pls leave further questions for me after this but not too many thanks

why do you think im partnered with nk15

why do you think nk15 is scum

It’s not an associative-based read, you’re both my individual top picks for scum

I’m going to answer the second part after I hear back from NK15 on my most recent question

don't think you ever answered the second part

why do these points you're making about lack of progression and lack of believable reasons for reads apply to std and not nk15

like what made him your target for today instead of nk when they were previously both your top scumreads

maybe it didn't look like a question cause it didn't have a question mark so here you go:

?????

[fireisredsir]

on irrel i really disagree with that, i don't think it required as much foresight as you're saying to see that mena was likely to be a better path

[fireisredsir]

i did not ever get the impression that the elim was most likely to fall within dats/skitter personally

[fireisredsir]

skitter me saying "why don't you want to vote scum" isn't me trying to pivot to you, and if mena flips green I'm the one that looks bad.
I said it because I'm dumbfounded that you don't want to vote menalque after the way he's played this game day

@fire? @std? Am I missing something here? Is skitter just a stubborn towny?

you saying that v much seemed manipulative and i prob would have voted you at that point too

[fireisredsir]

i also don't really get the sense of urgency cause assuming mena has some time to post today i think it will be useful to see what he posts

[fireisredsir]

dumb as fucking bricks

based on past meta i don't think this is very clearing lol

but i don't think it should be a major point either way

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

mmm don't really need that sitting at e-1 rn

[fireisredsir]

me you skitter nk

[fireisredsir]

I don't have much experience with NK15 but unless he has a meta of completely ignoring scum partners then you should pay attention to it

yea this was exactly the point, he does

[fireisredsir]

Okay I’m tired enough to sleep now pls leave further questions for me after this but not too many thanks

why do you think im partnered with nk15

why do you think nk15 is scum

It’s not an associative-based read, you’re both my individual top picks for scum

I’m going to answer the second part after I hear back from NK15 on my most recent question

don't think you ever answered the second part

why do these points you're making about lack of progression and lack of believable reasons for reads apply to std and not nk15

like what made him your target for today instead of nk when they were previously both your top scumreads

maybe it didn't look like a question cause it didn't have a question mark so here you go:

?????

[fireisredsir]

oh ok you were still getting there

[fireisredsir]

mena has clearly decided i'm scum but has no nuance to it no re-evaluation no thought process behind it. it's not like a townie finding a scumread at all, it's like scum picking someone because they have to. and people are just ignoring that.

i don't think people are really ignoring that fwiw, i felt that way and p sure at least one other person has mentioned that same thought

[fireisredsir]

my eyes are glazing over and i don't like the way the vc in 1700 is looking at me

so what you're saying here is that me and ari should each vote one of irrel/mena, leaving them both at e-1 with only you left unvoted and you get to choose who to hammer?

that's what you want, right?

[fireisredsir]

alas, it never would have worked, twas but a fleeting dream

[fireisredsir]

alas, it never would have worked, twas but a fleeting dream

curious what the goal was? I could tell it was a reaction test but not what kind

was a joke, dats gets stressed out by having to hammer/make pivotal decisions

i don't think he likes it as either alignment so not really a reaction test tbh