Datisi's Café [game over!]

[mastina]

Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:

I am setting my productivity to 0% today.

You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.

[mastina]

do do do do do do-do do

VOTE: klick

Town.

[mastina]

meep

Town.

[mastina]

Town PM let's goooo

VOTE: Ydrasse

Press

X

to doubt.

[mastina]

I'm on a path that is intertwined with
A debt that's paid when the world goes silent

Me too

Hope it's soon cause I've been on the party path for 3 years and don't want regrets

Town.

[mastina]

this is not a mod note.

Almost missed this, but town.

[mastina]

VOTE: Ausuka

VOTE: Ircher

Scum.

[mastina]

bc this game doesn't have a postcap and larges can sometimes get kinda miserable without one, if d1 starts to get close to like idk 80-100 pages i suggest we simply yeet someone

who wants to join me on this mission

we need 10 more to sign the pact

VOTE: ausuka

Probably a scum try hard, which on D1 is a treat-as-town.

[mastina]

I have not been having a lot of fun with Day 1 of large games. So I might try to coast this one out.

But I also might be bad at sticking to that lol.

But for now, and until I inevitably fail at holding back, Peta I declare you a double voter

VOTE: Klick

Oh is this the mythical Lukewarm scumgame?

...'Cause it looks like a mythical Lukewarm scumgame.

[mastina]

Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:

I am setting my productivity to 0% today.

You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.

I kinda feel like you should have just done this, and not declared it tbh.

Are you basically claiming that you have a power worth the over all productivity taking a hit?

Conversely, people probably should not declare intent to go to 100% productivity, because that is paramount to claiming either a VT or a PR with a bad ability.

I have my reasons.

I legit feel that me declaring this could break the game for the town.

The WHY is something that the scum will have to speculate about.

[mastina]

Btw Roden is scum here pretty sure.

[mastina]

Btw Roden is scum here pretty sure.

Because they didn’t read carefully enough?

Btw I’m rusty since I haven’t played in 4 months, so bear with me.

No, because I've played with Roden enough to know that this isn’t Rodens towngame.
Roden is also not likely to genuinely make the mistake as town.
Beyond that, the contribution is generically a scum one regardless of the above.

[mastina]

Btw Roden is scum here pretty sure.

Because they didn’t read carefully enough?

No, because I've played with Roden enough to know that this isn’t Rodens towngame.
Roden is also not likely to genuinely make the mistake as town.

Beyond that, the contribution is generically a scum one regardless of the above.

is this premise the same one behind your ircher vote

The bolded, no. But the rest actually is; this is Ircher's scumgame and I don't think he makes the entrance he did here if he were town.

[mastina]

How many games have you two played together you think?

At least four, maybe more. (With me having watched at least another beyond that as a reviewer with Roden a player.)

nero is having fun and i for one respect it

I respect it, but I don't townread it. Nero's not being as obtuse/obstinate as his town self normally is. He's not exactly as hard-scum as Ircher/Roden are, but he's not above null yet. I'm giving it more time tho because Nero bleeds his alignment given time. But if I had to gun-to-head my read there right now, it'd be scum obfuscating his play.

have my powers of sarcasm failed me

For the record: town.

Gwoke up no reason pos t this good night

Ydrasse also town for suffering the same insanity of posting when they should be sleeping, that I am. (No really I was going to go to bed but then on a whim decided to start posting here.)

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do

lean

town there overall.

[mastina]

But she'd better explain it eventually.

I guarantee you that I'll have explained by D4. I have a plan.

I could share that plan, but the plan would lose effectiveness if I did. I'll definitely be saying more on D2 and then D3 before the big reveal on D4 but I know what I'm doing, here. It requires some trust but there is actual value to be had in my strategy.

[mastina]

VOTE: Ydrasse

I'm torn between my obligatory-D1-give-jjh-a-pass and my really-hating-this-entrance since it seems particularly bad for jjh in particular and doesn't strike me as the vote I'd expect him to be making here as town.

But since I'm already giving fire the tryhard-scum-pass-for-now-as-town seal I suppose I owe that to jjh as well.

[mastina]

TOWN:
{Ydrasse}
{Vivax}
{petapan, Uncrowned, Something_Smart}
{jjh927*, fireisredsir*} (treated)

LEAN TOWN:
{Andresvmb}
{Ausuka}

NULL:
{PenguinPower, RCEnigma}
{Malakittens, furtiveglance, BlueBloodedToffee}
{Klick*}

NULL*
{Titus, Nero Cain}

SCUM?
fireisredsir (actual)
jjh927 (actual)
{Lukewarm}

SCUM:
{Roden}
{Ircher}

*Needs more time/posts/etc to tell.

[mastina]

Heads up, am phoneposting, so all responses will be one post, slow, not formatted, some things I won't be able to do, and I will likely have to abruptly leave before I get fully caught up.

I respect it, but I don't townread it. Nero's not being as obtuse/obstinate as his town self normally is.

This is the easiest way to read Nero Cain and I'm disappointed that you've discussed it in clear detail in this game before Nero Cain has really posted enough to read him off it

I mean.

It's not like he doesn't already know about this tell.

I've publicly used it to read him before. He knows about the tell. He's seen people in countless games use the tell. So he's fully aware of it.

But he can't really replicate it as scum. He cannot really help Displaying it as town, either. To be honest, I think that it's such an innate part of who he is, that he CAN’T change it.

So there's no harm in educating folks about it.
He can try to be obnoxious as scum;
He can try to be not obnoxious as town;
I don’t believe that he can truly fully succeed at either. Even knowing about the tell, he doesn't necessarily have the capacity to fix it.

(Also, this tips Klick into town.)

[mastina]

I hope i’m the scumread

I’m uninterested in the guessing game though as much as it would give back regarding reads

Why uninterested? I literally made it so easy for you. Also, you can only be a LEAN, since I said you were a smaller read.

For the record, if I hadn't already locktownned Ydrasse, this conversation would've done it for me.

Ydrasse is by FAR the towniest slot in the game by MILES.

I also townlean furtive for the exchange.

[mastina]

Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.

The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.

So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.

For the record, I am also locktownning Something Smart for this post.

[mastina]

Okay, I'm hyped for the mastina catchup. Maybe I have some brainpower left

Don't get your hopes up too high, this is how far back I am and I only have 15 minutes before my appointment.

I'll try to get as much as I can now tho and finish later.
(Btw this moves jjh to at minimum null. Maybe higher.)

[mastina]

Andre is prob town.

VOTE: Mastina

Back to bed for ma

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game.
It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

Mastina is an RVS vote

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read, and this also moves Mala into town by some considerable margin.

Not sure if Mala is locktown, but she's north of null, and I am trusting her on Andres and moving him up to locktown.

[mastina]

TOWN:
{Ydrasse}
{Vivax}
{petapan, Uncrowned, Something_Smart}
{jjh927*, fireisredsir*} (treated)

LEAN TOWN:
{Andresvmb}
{Ausuka}

NULL:
{PenguinPower, RCEnigma}
{Malakittens, furtiveglance, BlueBloodedToffee}
{Klick*}

NULL*
{Titus, Nero Cain}

SCUM?
fireisredsir (actual)
jjh927 (actual)
{Lukewarm}

SCUM:
{Roden}
{Ircher}

*Needs more time/posts/etc to tell.

{Ydrasse, Something_Smart, Andresvmp}
{Vivax, Uncrowned}
{Petapan, jjh927*}
{fireisredsir*}

TOWN OF UNSURE STRENGTH:
{Malakittens, Klick}
{furtiveglance}
{Ausuka}

NULL OF VARYING STRENGTH:
{PenguinPower, RCEnigma}
{BlueBloodedToffee}
{Titus}

SCUM?
fireisredsir
{Lukewarm, Nero Cain}

SCUM:
{Roden}
{Ircher}

So far.
Will continue to update.

[mastina]

how is expecting 5 scum in 21 players unreasonable

For the record, this area also promotes Ausuka in my reads.

Not to locktown, but higher up in the town tierlist at least.

[mastina]

titus calling me town from vca IS pretty weird

Now that you mention it, yeah I think it is.

But I'm not interested in a Titus wagon today.

She should be closely monitored tho.

[mastina]

roden has gone missing ever since he stopped getting questioned for the mech mistake stuff

you got any actual input now or are you just here to defend yourself when you get sussed

:goodposting:

[mastina]

I think I agree with Penguin 100% here about set up balances. Feels kinda weird, I'm usually neutral at best with him.

Polling people now:

Which re-entrance into the game was worse?

This one by Roden?

Or......

[mastina]

guess

Just a confident guess. 4 is pretty typical for a game of this size.
VOTE: Vivax

I've read very little since like page 3, but Vivax is sticking out like a sore thumb.

...This one by Ircher?


I still say both bad but Ircher far, far worse.

[mastina]

I'm not convinced.

Funny, I'm not swayed either away from my townread there and my scumread on you.

[mastina]

the accusation of someone being frozen for not posting within a 19 hour window is pretty lulzy


this isn't fucking mafia universe and i'm grateful for that


(this is not implying a read on ircher ftr)

Vibing with this. It's just a reasonable take.

roden has gone missing ever since he stopped getting questioned for the mech mistake stuff

you got any actual input now or are you just here to defend yourself when you get sussed

Not vibing with this though.

I don't think I was gone all that long? I went to bed then went to work when I woke up. And I've been keeping up with the thread and responding to stuff and giving my thoughts. What gave you the impression otherwise?

You’re giving far less thoughts than you ought to whilst simultaneously managing the feats of not enough mech and not enough reads.
(Gotta go.)

[mastina]

I don't think Mastina ever responded to me anyway.

Oh well I should just say that the lack of knowing how to engage is mutual.

You're not my priority elimination now, anyway; that's Ircher.

Past that, we'll cross the bridge when we come to it.

the last time i pumped the brakes on an early day 1 ircher wagon he was scum who escaped to get a night action
and his posts when he came back were kind of bad tbh

^
I don't care what he claims; I don't care about the wagon composition on him; I don't care about getting distracted by shinies.

He's scum and we shouldn't let him go.

I'm not compromise-voting today. I'm staying on Ircher, period. Any wagon not him will have to be done without me, likely with my strong opposition.

[mastina]

I want to be cautious with Vivax because he seems like the sort of person who's naturally scummy but I don't really like the way he pivots away from Ircher for being too scummy to be scum and then returns because apparently he'd be hammered if he's town??? Especially with Ircher voting Vivax, I feel like if Ircher is scum Vivax is a good place to start d2

From my experience, that's Vivax as town for what it's worth.

[mastina]

I read through mastina's ISO. Incredibly wrong reads as always.

This is not a town-Ircher post.

[mastina]

This is setup, maths and probability spec from someone who obviously loves this kind of thing. How is it town indicative?

Because it reveals Something_Smart as town in a way that I'd prefer to not elaborate on. He's locktown; the why he's locktown for that is not something I want to share.

[mastina]

Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it.

(Technically, I'm not opposed to fakeclaiming as scum, but my fakeclaims need to be believable claims that cannot be fairly easily proven as lies. This means no claiming I can act when I can't, or vice versa. It means no claiming entirely different actions from my actual role. The only exceptions to this are when I have a sufficiently strong grasp of the info in the game to have a high chance of not being caught with the fakeclaim. For instance, if I know the town roles and how they acted, I can slot a claim in that fits with their actions. But yes, this is mostly accurate. Fakeclaims need to be things that are very very carefully done and most of the time it's just easier and better to tell the truth.)

[mastina]

I am very surprised by the FoSes on me that agree with my pushes on Ircher and SS.

To be honest, right now I don't see any team associatives with anyone.

Like, not really anywhere at all.

I only see anti-associatives. (Most of which are not strong enough to prevent them from being scum laying anti-associatives mind you.)

I get that the players I'm not townreading aren't exactly a coherent scumteam. You don't bus Ircher here, for instance. But while I believe Ircher to be scum, I don't have a townread on you right now. Ircher flipping scum would automatically give me a townread on you, but we're not there yet.

[mastina]

If you vote Ircher now maybe we could end it by 35

happy to given his recent contribution but mastina seemed like she's doing her catch up thing.

I'm good; vote away!

[mastina]

Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:

I am setting my productivity to 0% today.

You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.

Full transparency, part 2/3:

I am setting my productivity to 50% today.
On D3, I will be setting my productivity to 75%.
On D4, I will go to 100% and fully explain why I have done what I am doing.

I have a plan. I legit think that I can break the game with this and I promise that I will explain everything on D4 and explain why I have done what I am doing.

It'll all make sense then, and the scum won't know what hit them.

[mastina]

Wow, that's really annoying. I targeted Peta last night.

Pray continue....

I'm a Mailman with a modifier. I sent him a message asking for advice on how to effectively play my role, and let him know I chose him since I believed he would be the most likely person to give solid advice regardless of his own alignment or his read on me.

Btw there's actually TWO reasons for why I think that this is a scumclaim from Roden, maybe 3.
jjh can probably get 1-2 of them, small outside chance of all 3.

But,
VOTE: Roden

Roden is effectively confscum with that claim.

[mastina]

I don’t see myself ever pivoting off of Roden.

Roden was already scum by play to me, but that claim was 200% damning in ways that Roden couldn't even know.

If we wanna go 2 for 2 on scum eliminations, y'all should be voting for Roden today.

[mastina]

I read some stuff. I think scum bussed ircher and I think titus vote looks like a bus

that being said her refrain of "it's not a slip but ircher is frozen obvscum!!" gets really weird if ircher is scum, imo

I agree with this

Scum certainly did bus Ircher, but don't make the surface-level conclusion that all scum did.

In fact, I'd wager it's far less than you think.
Everyone even yesterday was saying, "Oh, Ircher is being bussed."

That everyone included scum.
What I mean by that is, scum knew that there would be zero towncred from bussing Ircher.
Yet Ircher deliberately let himself die.

Basic logic dictates that if Ircher knew that he was going to die, then he believed that his scumbuddies wouldn't be found easily.

But everyone yesterday said that they felt scum were bussing.

So that means that the scum could be found if on the Ircher wagon.

What does all of this mean, then?

Well, I agree that scum bussed Ircher.
I just don't think that it's all the scum bussing Ircher. I would instead wager 1-2 scum on, and 1-3 scum off. (I know that we're going to run with the assumption that there's 4 scum due to Ircher scumslipping, but I wouldn't discount that he was caught scum for the wrong reason and there's actually 5. It's PROBABLY 4, but not CERTAINLY 4, so I will always have an asterisk next to 4.)

If I had to guess, actually, my first assumption would be only 1 scum on, and the rest off.

Which is another reason why I think that Roden is scum.

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

with 21 votes in play, it took 11 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens, fireisredsir

Ydrasse [2]:

Roden, Nero Cain

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb, Ircher

petapan [1]:

Something_Smart

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

not voting [1]:

Ydrasse

mod notes

~ i am using a vote counter, let me know if there are any mistakes.
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

flavour

now playing...
♫

Magazin - Oko moje sanjivo

♫
▶ ❚❚ ──────────────────────────●───  2:53 / 3:04

Oh, this is easy!

Roden is scum.
Fireisredsir COULD be scum.
Those are the only 2 who can be scum off-wagon, so there's 1-2 scum on. 1 if Fire is scum, 2 if Fire is town.

[mastina]

In the Titus/Vivax binary, then:

VOTE: Vivax

Titus COULD be scum, but Roden IS scum.

And Vivax is hard-town to me.

Everyone off the Ircher wagon except Roden, Fire, and Malakittens are hard-town to me. Malakittens is not locked, but still far more likely town than not.

Vivax is always town here, as are many members of the Ircher wagon.

While Titus is in the remainder which COULD be scum, it'd be a departure from her norm and thus is less likely.

Vivax v Titus as a dilemma thus has a high chance of being town-town and I therefore refuse to accept it.
IF there’s scum in there, it's Titus, but she's not the most likely to be scum.

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

with 21 votes in play, it took 11 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens, fireisredsir

Ydrasse [2]:

Roden, Nero Cain

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb, Ircher

petapan [1]:

Something_Smart

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

not voting [1]:

Ydrasse

mod notes

~ i am using a vote counter, let me know if there are any mistakes.
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

flavour

now playing...
♫

Magazin - Oko moje sanjivo

♫
▶ ❚❚ ──────────────────────────●───  2:53 / 3:04

Oh, this is easy!

Roden is scum.
Fireisredsir COULD be scum.
Those are the only 2 who can be scum off-wagon, so there's 1-2 scum on. 1 if Fire is scum, 2 if Fire is town.

Pagetopping this.

[mastina]

Lukewarm >>>>>> RCE

>

PenguinPower > Titus imo for likelihood of scum on Ircher wagon.

It'll take some cross-referencing which I can't do on my phone, but I feel pretty good about this.

Roden 200% scum, Lukewarm quite likely scum, Fire high chance of also being scum.

[mastina]

Titus could have been bussing but you would have to think they were on top of Ircher’s case very aggressively and maybe? It’s possible the Scum decided to take alternative tracks in order to not all get lumped together, but I seriously doubt all of the Scum bailed on Ircher immediately.

Ircher's role was pretty weak, and tbh Ircher gets run up D1 almost every game I play with him regardless of his alignment. I don't think he got hard bussed by his entire team, but I don't think they had much incentive to try to save him either. Best play for scum is for them to avoid being associated with Ircher at all IMO.

This analysis is true, but guess who follows the pattern that you describe for scum?

You!

You literally fit as doing what you say you think the scum should have done.

You avoided association with Ircher, but you if you were town shouldn't have.

[mastina]

Wow, that's really annoying. I targeted Peta last night.

Pray continue....

I'm a Mailman with a modifier. I sent him a message asking for advice on how to effectively play my role, and let him know I chose him since I believed he would be the most likely person to give solid advice regardless of his own alignment or his read on me.

Btw there's actually TWO reasons for why I think that this is a scumclaim from Roden, maybe 3.
jjh can probably get 1-2 of them, small outside chance of all 3.

But,
VOTE: Roden

Roden is effectively confscum with that claim.

Gonna reiterate this btw.

[mastina]

Lukewarm is really the player that asked the important blow up question first so unless that was planned (not likely) I wouldn’t vote there either.

Have you heard about the idea that scum see their scumbuddies slip in situations that the town wouldn't?

And how every time, the scum insist that they would've seen it as town, when actually, no, they wouldn't have?

Lukewarm is the MOST suspicious, not the least.

[mastina]

Btw there's actually TWO reasons for why I think that this is a scumclaim from Roden, maybe 3.

It's independently a pretty sketchy claim. But do you think scum would have Ircher's role and that?

Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.

[mastina]

earlier i thought vivax could be scum TMIing that the BBT kill was a vig kill, since he didnt seem to understand that me/furtive were talking from the perspective of thinking "this is a weird kill for mafia to make"

but in addition to thinking his play just feels like his towngame, i think its more likely that he is actually just a vig TMIing that BBT kill was a vig kill

Hard disagree, to me both Peta and Nero were weird kills. Peta makes sense off the info Lukewarm gave, and Nero...idk, maybe him hinting he had some kind of scavenger role?
But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

Kinda surprised Uncrowned isn't dead tbh, gave you quite a bit of fire

(Fire is probably scum #2, with Roden.)

[mastina]

P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.

I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?

Enough
But let's consider this: The ones who called it weird either don't reply (FG) or believe it (Fire)
While Luke goes on attack mode after not commenting, supposedly having no info whatsoever of how many extra kills scum had. At the very least, you'd have reason to assume Luke has an agenda or ulterior motive here.

Lukewarm is scum feeling boxed in, obv.

He NEEDS a mislim to go through, especially on the vig, because he knows that scum are fucked if they don’t.

[mastina]

In the Titus/Vivax binary, then:

VOTE: Vivax

Titus COULD be scum, but Roden IS scum.

And Vivax is hard-town to me.

Everyone off the Ircher wagon except Roden, Fire, and Malakittens are hard-town to me. Malakittens is not locked, but still far more likely town than not.

Vivax is always town here, as are many members of the Ircher wagon.

While Titus is in the remainder which COULD be scum, it'd be a departure from her norm and thus is less likely.

Vivax v Titus as a dilemma thus has a high chance of being town-town and I therefore refuse to accept it.
IF there’s scum in there, it's Titus, but she's not the most likely to be scum.

I want you to explain why Vivax is hard Town to you. I’m not ruling it out by any means, but outside their implied claim (which is important I’ll admit), I find it hard to believe that you genuinely think they’re hard Town.

I've played with Vivax.

This is his towngame through and through.

I also believe the vig claim.

[mastina]

earlier i thought vivax could be scum TMIing that the BBT kill was a vig kill, since he didnt seem to understand that me/furtive were talking from the perspective of thinking "this is a weird kill for mafia to make"

but in addition to thinking his play just feels like his towngame, i think its more likely that he is actually just a vig TMIing that BBT kill was a vig kill

Hard disagree, to me both Peta and Nero were weird kills. Peta makes sense off the info Lukewarm gave, and Nero...idk, maybe him hinting he had some kind of scavenger role?
But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

Kinda surprised Uncrowned isn't dead tbh, gave you quite a bit of fire

(Fire is probably scum #2, with Roden.)

I can't spot anything scummy about Roden, it's a placid tone

I can.

Aside from play, the claim is a scumclaim.

[mastina]

Feel free to state these reasons, thanks.

Well for a start.

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Ydrasse [2]:

Roden, Nero Cain

There is a big major issue with this.

But beyond that, ~role reasons~ (multiple), ~setup reasons~ (multiple), and play.

Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.

Share with the class?

Well you gotta keep in mind, [Redacted because Roden hasn't fullclaimed and I don't want to give Roden info on how to make a more believable claim.]

(I can share after a Roden fullclaim but suffice to say Roden's claim is exactly that of scum in this game. It doesn't have something a town role should have in this game.) (That said, jjh gives part of it. There's more beyond that tho.)

Where's the scum power if two of them have useless roles?

Well that'd tell scum what NOT to fakeclaim, now, wouldn't it?

[mastina]

VOTE: s_sVOTE: [v/]

PP I am townreading you because I think I get why you are scumreading S_S and see where you are coming from and what you think.

But I think that S_S is town for a related reason that reverses what you saw and made it be town instead of scum.

[mastina]

Mastina Luke is just town

He really isn't.

Something_Smart is tho.

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb}
{furtiveglance} (could maybe be above)

HARD-TOWN:
{Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Vivax, jjh, and Something_Smart are all locktown for different, but closely linked, reasons. They have all shown a towntell that I believe demonstrates they

cannot

be scum here and absolutely must be town. All look town to me by play anyway, but that tell has me convinced each of them is town.

PenguinPower

is almost up there, because I believe PP spotted

half

of what I saw on S_S, but not the half which makes S_S town. S_S towntold in a way that cannot be scum, but if you saw only half of it, you'd think the opposite, that S_S spewed himself as scum. I have to be quite tight-lipped about this to not reveal what it is tho, but I think that PP seeing half makes him town.

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

furtiveglance

I initially had a tier below, but I decided after thinking about the people townreading furtive today's reasons, that I agreed with them. Was town D1 in an incredibly town way and I think is still worthy of the locktown tier today.

Ausuka

I had as below furtive but still at hard-town, yet I've decided to move Ausuka here after reviewing my reason for townreading Ausuka before, and I feel it still holds. Ausuka's play is incredibly anti-partner with Ircher in a way genuinely anti-partnery and with towntells that I believe are genuinely towntells. The whole exchange just looks town.

Klick

looks to be playing town, but not quite as strongly as others. It looks like what I'd expect from him as town, but I don't know what he looks like as scum. He's reasonable, he's making good posts, so his content is definitely town-sounding at the least, but I've no metric to guarantee it is the same way as I do my stronger reads.

Malakittens

would be locktown if not for a couple factors.
The first is that Malakittens was off the wagon, where I expect there to be 1-2 scum.
The second is that both the scum nightkills (confirmed to be Nero/peta per Vivax claiming the BBT vig) are the two players I would expect Mala to nightkill if she were scum. Nero wasn't widely townread, but Malakittens is one of the few players to know of Nero back in his glory days of when he was his most dangerous. Nero also knows Malakittens pretty well I'm pretty sure, so of all the players in the game, she has more incentive than almost any other to kill him.
Similarly so for petapan. I've never seen his towngame in full-swing before, but allegedly, it's pretty damn good from what I'm told. (I believe it, it's just that I've personally never seen it.) This means that basically anyone could/would kill him, but for some reason I seem to recall that peta/Malakittens have some sort of history too which if this memory is correct would make Mala want to kill him.

These factors keep Malakittens from being locktown, but she's still more likely town than not on her strength of play. It's purely NKA/VCA that implicates she

could

be scum and I trust my scumhunting-by-play tools more than I trust my NKA/VCA tools.

Titus

is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does

not

match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

RCEnigma

has been null the entire game, but at this stage, 'null' with this many players with compelling reasons to be town is quite possibly indicative of scum.
He's not been strongly present in a way suggesting town. His content is highly forgettable. When he is town, I expect to remember his posts, and to have a lot of them be agreeable. But while he's making some reasonable reads, his posts overall feel lackluster. He's someone that it's easy to forget is in the game, which is a red flag indicative of possible scum.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

Lukewarm

fits as the scum on the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. Though on D2 I'm sensing more stylistic similarities to Lukewarm's towngame, the D2 content is highly pro-scum in nature, looking to be scum that is in a tight spot and is trying to figure out a way to avoid a town sweep.

Roden

is scum ten times over in ten different ways. I'm never voting elsewhere, not even to vote another scumread. I'm not gonna lie, it ain't as strong as Ircher, but it's

pretty damn close

. If Ircher was 99% scum, then Roden is like 97%. I'll be honest tho, the main difference in that 2% is essentially, "I never catch two scum in a row. I always think I do, but I never

actually

do. I caught Ircher so I couldn't have genuinely caught a second, could I?"
Because by every other metric, yeah Roden should be as strong a scumread as Ircher. Genuinely the only reason Roden is weaker is that paranoia of me never normally being this competent.
But I'll go with the theory that I was a PROPHET when I said I'd be a SCUMHUNTING GOD, and that therefore I am indeed accurate here.

[mastina]

To be clear, mastina:

As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.

Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?

This is the primary reason I think Luke can't be scum.
I'd love to see a convincing perspective on why Luke actively decides to make this post as scum. Because otherwise, I agree that he's a pretty simple choice for PoE.

As scum, Lukewarm would know the total faction numbers.
As scum, Lukewarm would be pretending to scumhunt.
As scum, Lukewarm would see this post by Ircher and think that his town self would see it.
As scum, Lukewarm figured it'd be worth bringing up, and that Ircher wouldn't necessarily be hard-condemned for it.
As scum, Lukewarm thought the interaction was natural-looking and would be an organic way to have interactions with Ircher.
As scum, Lukewarm had to pivot away from this organic interaction plan when momentum built on Ircher and Ircher wasn't able to dissuade it in time.

The interaction doesn't look like town finding a smoking gun.
The interaction looks like scum interacting with scum in the hopes of making both parties look more town from the exchange.
Which didn't end up happening, mind you--but Lukewarm as scum wouldn't have known what that interaction would trigger from the town.

Keep in mind, that post was literally on page 2.

Lukewarm as scum would expect discussion of faction size/info to be mech-talk taking place in the RVS stage of the game. For Ircher to provide his thoughts, where he would explain his comment, and then the town to chime in with their thoughts, and so on and so forth, where ultimately it was decided to be nai or maybe even town for Ircher. That is what it looks like was the plan. He saw something as scum that could be a scumslip, but figured his town self would see it and that engaging in the conversation would be harmless.

Then it turned out to be a big deal. Lukewarm wouldn't have known that a page one post by Ircher that he pointed out on page two would be a big problem for the scum.

[mastina]

Mastina would you be interested in making a deal with me that benefits you twofold?

I mean maybe but honestly unlikely.

I'm pretty sure on my Roden scumread so I really don't see myself moving off of him.

But if it's not a request to vote elsewhere today then sure.

[mastina]

Mastina, I'm struggling to think of how this could be the case. I would say don't worry about sharing your argument, if Ircher's setup speculation was real then there are only 3 mafia left, I don't think scum fakeclaiming in future is a massive problem.

Why catch only two scum fakeclaiming when you can catch three or four by not revealing how they're fucking up their fakeclaims?

[mastina]

I am hoping she has an extremely good reason for doing so

Oh, I do!

If I got seen by a Tracker or Watcher it's a better play for town to just say I targeted someone who died than to let a town PR potentially out themself with a false guilty

If you got seen by a tracker or watcher, it's also better play for scum to claim before they are outted by a

real

guilty, too.

Just sayin'.

[mastina]

Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).

For the exact same reason I know jjh is town and knew Ircher was scum and know Roden is scum.

So, yes, it is a form of TMI, but in this case originating from town. The town who have paid attention that are in the know, are in the know and basically are a gigantic masonry as far as I'm concerned. {Vivax, jjh, Something_Smart, PenguinPower} is a pool which never contains scum if I'm right, here.

jjh probably knows what I know. He may or may not agree, mind you, but he probably sees what I am seeing at least.

You and PenguinPower, if I am right, might be able to figure it out, too. But obviously, the less said, the better, because I don't want to give anything away which would let scum infiltrate the holy masonry.

[mastina]

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Uncrowned

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

The Titus wagon sticks out to me for its constituents

Oh yeah that wagon is scummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Like, is literally my three scumreads, scum.

I wonder why?

Could it perhaps be that they know they're fucked if they lose Roden and they're hoping that they can push a wagon through on Titus?

[mastina]

VOTE: SS
Will consider a Roden vote upon review as that's a strong mastina read.

Titus my townread on Something_Smart is even stronger than my scumread on Roden.

[mastina]

[This post

might

be a scumslip.]

It's not.

Is it possible we have S v S wagons and scum were trying to get my wagon to go?

I mean if I was wrong about Something_Smart then yes, Roden v S_S would be scum v scum, with the scum being primarily off of both wagons.

I do think that both wagons are exclusively town, mind you, because the actual scum were all on you. But while both wagons are town-led, Roden is scum and Something_Smart is town.

[mastina]

VOTE: SS
Will consider a Roden vote upon review as that's a strong mastina read.

Titus my townread on Something_Smart is even stronger than my scumread on Roden.

I can't see how. Throw me a bone.

Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.

The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.

So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.

For the record, I am also locktownning Something Smart for this post.

This is setup, maths and probability spec from someone who obviously loves this kind of thing. How is it town indicative?

Because it reveals Something_Smart as town in a way that I'd prefer to not elaborate on. He's locktown; the why he's locktown for that is not something I want to share.

Mastina, I'm struggling to think of how this could be the case. I would say don't worry about sharing your argument, if Ircher's setup speculation was real then there are only 3 mafia left, I don't think scum fakeclaiming in future is a massive problem.

Why catch only two scum fakeclaiming when you can catch three or four by not revealing how they're fucking up their fakeclaims?

Not all scum have to fakeclaim

I mean, sure, but that will also work against them.

Scum who botch their fakeclaim get eliminated.

Scum who don't fakeclaim have no claim to save them from getting eliminated.

It's only scum producing a not-botched fakeclaim that gives them a chance to survive, so not giving them the keys to make one is for the best.

[mastina]

If he's locktown for reasons you prefer not to share, then I can't follow that.

I get that it's frustrating to not be among those in the know.

But I promise that my read is right and that it is for the best for the town to not elaborate.

Keeping the scum in the dark is genuinely the way we win the game.

There's only a select number of people who could be scum. Heck, if we were to massclaim I'd probably be able to name every town player and all the scum with 98% confidence and y'all would know exactly why I have Roden as scum and those who I have town, as town.

But while my reads being accurate post-massclaim would be proven to be true, today's not the day for a massclaim. 2-3 scum dead, then we can wrap the game up quickly with a massclaim.

I guarantee that I know what I am talking about. I guarantee that I am right. I guarantee that I can back it up. But I also guarantee that on D2, it'd be a bad idea to reveal anything.

Trust me, until we have 2-3 dead scum. (Which should be after Roden's elimination mind you.)

mastina you are aware that there is a sample pm in the opening posts, right?

Oh I am, but [redacted--not revealing this needlessly].

[mastina]

If he's locktown for reasons you prefer not to share, then I can't follow that.

I get that it's frustrating to not be among those in the know.

But I promise that my read is right and that it is for the best for the town to not elaborate.

Keeping the scum in the dark is genuinely the way we win the game.

There's only a select number of people who could be scum. Heck, if we were to massclaim I'd probably be able to name every town player and all the scum with 98% confidence and y'all would know exactly why I have Roden as scum and those who I have town, as town.

But while my reads being accurate post-massclaim would be proven to be true, today's not the day for a massclaim. 2-3 scum dead, then we can wrap the game up quickly with a massclaim.

I guarantee that I know what I am talking about. I guarantee that I am right. I guarantee that I can back it up. But I also guarantee that on D2, it'd be a bad idea to reveal anything.

Trust me, until we have 2-3 dead scum. (Which should be after Roden's elimination mind you.)

For the record:
I think that the game only has a small fraction of the players as possible to be scum. The players that I am locktownning strongest cannot be scum.
From there, there are many players who are incredibly unlikely to be scum off of play.
And that leaves a small pool for who is likely to be scum.

However, I am being cautious here because in the worst case scenario where the scum are in those who are unlikely to be scum by play, keeping them from infiltrating the locktown is a top priority, because as long as the locktown are there, the scum cannot win. No matter how well they climb up reads-wise, if they can't get into the locktown tier, the town wins.

I do get that that's frustrating for the town who are not in the locktown. They are just as much in the dark as the scum are. But I can't let the town not in the know know, without letting the scum who have proven they're not in the know, know.

[mastina]

Any ideas on who would be more prone to killing a peta+nero combo? You know each other better after all

Tbh the player most likely to do that is Malakittens, but by play I think Mala is town.

I

guess

Klick

might

do it? But by play I also think that he's town.

Ydrasse

could

, but she's even more town than the above two.

Ausuka

might

, but I've not the familiarity to be sure.

Titus could, I suppose, but my reasons for townreading her outweigh the evidence for her being scum.

{Lukewarm, Roden, RCEnigma} are the three players I would most expect to kill peta (admittedly, per peta's reputation,

everyone

has reason to kill peta, it's just that these are the players I'd MOST expect to); I'd need to research their Nero history though to see how likely it is from them.

[mastina]

It really feels like you're making this up. I understand why someone would be suspicious of me in a vacuum but this argument feels like you started at the premise "ausuka is scum" and then made up reasoning to reach that viewpoint.

You are correct; fire did this for you.

You know who else has done that?

Lukewarm with his Titus/mastina cases.

Both are scum!

[mastina]

Well honestly from that, I feel even better about following mastina on Roden

You can consider if I'm the last scum on D4! The day that I have said I'll do the reveal on. Coincidentally, that gives us three days to find scum and I have given you three targets for those two days! (Well technically four if you count RCE as a backup of sorts, where if I'm wrong on any of Lukewarm/fire/Roden, it'd be RCE.)

That's a 150% chance of eliminating scum by D4 if you think about it. Just requires sheeping/trusting me that I am right.

Everything about them spells self-doubt

Not quite the wording I'd use, but yes, Lukewarm is scum here. There is something absent from his game. I don't wanna detract from the Roden wagon to fully explain it, but basically Lukewarm has a critical aspect to his reads missing present in his towngame. He's doing a good job of making cases, of making reasons for players to be an alignment, but it's performative and insincere, because the sign of a genuine belief in his reads is missing.

[mastina]

Absolutely bullshit. You've seen me play as scum. I almost

never

avoid my partners. I never avoid the major wagons. Ircher being run up every game is an easy thing to defend and I could have easily talked Ircher out of the noose and coached him. Ircher, being a less active poster, would be easy to Cyrano.
You'd be familiar with my scumgame but instead you're trying to push me because I was right and you're scared.

This is applicable for both Roden's push on Titus, but

also

Lukewarm's push there.

Titus is right. Her play does not match her established behaviors of interacting with scumbuddies.

Is that a hard-clear? Well no. Titus isn't unable to change up her scumplay. She

could

change things up, and I get it--a lot of Titus's play looks like scum.

But the narrative that Titus wasn't too far off of her scumgame's established meta is bullshit, because she IS off of her established scum meta. And I believe that Titus as scum wouldn't have diverged.

The theoretical ability to diverge does not mean actually any reason to diverge in a specific game.
For instance, easy way of explaining this: theoretically, I could fakeclaim as scum any game. (Titus could diverge from protecting scum any game.) But there's a

reason

that I don't diverge from that and avoid fakeclaiming as scum. (There's a

reason

Titus doesn't diverge from defending her scumbuddies.) It works disproportionately often, giving the scumteam an edge they otherwise would lack--"don't fix what's not broken", and changing up a winning strategy is a good way to lose.

Titus had the chance to try and save Ircher. Would she have succeeded? Not necessarily--but she still had a chance to, and didn't. Any attempt to say she did is bullshit.

[mastina]

Suggests a blatant denial of vca info since at least Ydrasse and mastina are universal TRs.

why do you think these are universal TRs?

Well because it's basically only the scum who think they stand a chance of running players like me and Ydrasse up.

That I am alive says more about who the scum aren't--those who continuously townread me both today and yesterday would've killed me as scum, so it means the scum are among those who did not continuously townread me both today and yesterday.

The likes of, sayyyy...you, Lukewarm, and Roden?

[mastina]

Why is ydrasse an universal town read

D1 play. I know that Ydrasse's D2 play has faded and that can be a scumtell for Ydrasse since Ydrasse's scumplay loses momentum with time--but I am willing to bet based off of what the D1 play is that the loss of momentum is nai and more indicative of Ydrasse's mindset/circumstances/etc. more than anything to do with role/alignment.

I want to stick to play as things may not be as expected.

Well in that case you can look at past Roden towngames for an idea of why this isn't among them.

We won't actually

see

the reasons but it's ok for some reason.

To be fair, I

do

want to explain. It's just that I don't want to give info to the scum that they can use to cover their tracks. That applies both to roles and to play. I reveal what I need to, when I need to, but revealing more than that is dangerous.

We've got a game that should be won, just by not giving the scum too much room to work.

All it takes is me shutting my trap and not being the talkative self I would love to be.

[mastina]

VOTE: Ausuka

VOTE: Ircher
Scum.

So for starters, we know there's 4 scum based off what Ircher slipped on page 1. But while there was a random flashwagon on Ausuka going on, why is this the reason mastina voted Ircher

first

for the wrong reason?

Because I didn't catch the 4-scum comment; it didn't really occur to me.

What I

did

catch was Ircher making an RVS vote in a way/style he would never do as town. I've played with Ircher both as town and scum and literally been his scum partner. I know his scumplay pretty damn well. His vote on Ausuka was more of a scumclaim than the comment on faction numbers. Ircher as town never makes that vote, at least not in that way. The entirety of his D1 posts were obvscum.

Like--read his P1 posts. We know he was scum, so like it's less effective than normally. But slip be damned. Just off of content. Just off of what he said there. Just off of his page one posts. Don't they radiate scum?

They did to me.
Maybe it's that I've played with Ircher before, but like.
I don't see how anyone can look at Ircher's page one posts and

not

see him as scum from them. It was that damn obvious. Ircher gave away his alignment with every post he made.

So color me paranoid here, but is Mastina running her entire team into the ground right from the start?

Vote Roden out and see my D3 push, that seems like a good way to find out!

[mastina]

I may or may not be able to shoot again, if you want me to shoot, give suggestions. No promises, a roleblocker is likely.

Lukewarm/RCEnigma would both be solid choices imo.

Btw the Klick/furtive posts on that page make me townread both regardless of Roden's alignment. I don't see either of them making those posts as scum who know Roden's alignment. They are both town who are reaching out to a player whose alignment they don't know.

[mastina]

I was fully prepared to defend Roden from being the days elimination before he decided to throw a temper tantrum. I don't think that I will be doing that any more tbh.

(Like, compare this sort of interaction with Roden to those of Klick/furtive/jjh/etc. Lukewarm knows Roden's alignment. Others do not.)

[mastina]

I also said you had no reason to believe me, which...is exactly what happened.

Because you said something different than you did initially?
Maybe clear that up?

And while it's far from as strong as the others, this, too, looks like town not knowing Roden's alignment.

If you think a scum puts up that type of defense I don‘t know what to tell you.

Have you heard of scum's good friend Ate? I hear Ate is good pals with scum like Roden. "who is ay-tee?", you may ask? Oh you might know him by his full name, Appeal to Emotion.

[mastina]

Mastina pinged him scum for a vote on Ausuka that wasn‘t supposed to stick out in context.

The funny thing about scum posts is that nothing scum say is

meant

to stick out in context. (Okay that's an over-simplification/generalization, as scum have incentive to subvert this on occasion--WIFOM, to distract from other scum, as a gambit, etc. But you know what I mean. Scum don't post trying to look like scum most of the time.)

Just because it isn't meant to stick out in context doesn't mean it won't tho. The whole basis of the game of mafia is identifying scum who thought they were blending in yet made at least one post which ended up sticking out. Ircher did with his very first post and continued for the rest of the page. Ircher couldn't have thought his page one posts would be scumclaims; if he did, he wouldn't have made them. But they still were scumclaims.

I don’t know if anybody has brought this up already

For the record, I believe it'd be anti-town to really expand on your train of thought here. However, I believe it to come from town and you

are

onto something, there. A fairly significant thing actually. But it's best not to elaborate yet.

I guess this is a math question of how many VTs we think are in the game.

Seems like something a town-you would've done already; I wonder why you haven't engaged in it?

*I* have reasons not to (I believe it's anti-town today), jjh has reasons not to, but you don't follow the same school of thought as either jjh or myself do, so I wonder why you haven't? Could it perhaps be that you're doing it in a more...private setting? With two others chiming in?

[mastina]

Someone with an eye for math would have surely gotten interested in the numbers Ircher was putting out, and very quickly realized that they had to be assuming we’re in a 17:4 game - which is not immediately obvious. This gets at what people look for or what they’re interested in, in part.

Why was Lukewarm involved in the math D1 yet not engaged in the math today?

I have gone into why I believe Lukewarm did what he did on D1 as scum: he didn't believe that it would condemn Ircher as scum. He believed it'd lead to a discussion of mechanics/math/etc. He thought that it'd be a way to interact with a scumbuddy and leave both looking townier and assume the interactions would be organically town. Lukewarm couldn't have known that the post he pointed out would be seen as the town as such a big deal.

And it was only

after

that when he made his Ircher case.

In a bit of irony, the thing he accused Titus of is something he himself is guilty of. Where he saw the way the winds were blowing and felt he had to commit.

What's your theory for why Lukewarm isn't nearly as involved in the math D2?

[mastina]

(Oops I'm casing Lukewarm too much right now; I don't want to detract from the Roden wagon. Damn you, ADHD. )

[mastina]

Been thinking over Roden, and I still want Titus to be todays elim.

I mean naturally you want a Titus elimination over a Roden one. Titus has support from those who are unaware of her meta or are purposefully downplaying/ignoring/etc. it. She has been a lead lim candidate all day because people are not following why her meta is like 90+% clearing of her.

That's a far better elimination for you than your scumbuddy!

[mastina]

Like...You consider a lot of things at once in parallel, but don‘t really point and shoot. I hope this doesn‘t come across as mischaracterizing, but it‘s what keeps me sus on you.

This is accurate; Lukewarm is missing the "A-HA!!!" factor.

Making the cases he has is not an a-ha! factor; making the cases he has is having predetermined the outcome and writing the evidence to fit that narrative.

[mastina]

when he‘s clearly very passionate about being the wrong elim

Scum down one scum on D2 are also passionate about being the wrong elim for their team.

In fact scum have more reason to be passionate than town.

If a player who was pushing Ircher hard was wagoned hard on D2, they as town would have good reason to be upset--in their eyes, they'd have reason to think that the town was gamethrowing by voting out a town player that significantly contributed to a D1 scum elimination.

But Roden doesn't fit as that.

If a player who wasn't pushing Ircher hard was wagoned hard on D2, they as town would have no reason to be upset. They'd understand the why. They'd maybe be upset at themselves, but they'd have far less reason to be upset at the town.

So a player who wasn't pushing Ircher hard being wagoned hard on D2 being passionate is more likely to be scum.

[mastina]

But yeah announced superscumkiller mastina didn‘t quite die before Peta and Nero.

Generally speaking, I'm never the first scum kill in the game. That's why it's genuinely shocking to me in the rare instances I am. I'm like, "wait what??? Why me?"

Similarly, I like to meme about being a scum killer but in truth my accuracy level is never as high in reality as it is in my head. I genuinely think all the scum are basically known to me, but if it were truly so foolproof that my reads weren't wrong, I wouldn't need to actually hide/obscure all my reasons, now, would I? I'm holding back specifically because I am aware that I could be wrong on my reads, and just like every time I'm the first kill is a surprise, me actually being right on all my scumreads would be a surprise.

But I have the scumreads so I'm not going to not push them just out of fear that I'll be wrong. So if I see someone who looks like scum...I'mma push them as scum.

When I did the comparison, I was saying that her posts about Ircher do not clear her from being partnered with Ircher, because she has no issue lock!Scum reading a scum partner in her first 5 posts.

Oh sure, my push on Ircher doesn't clear me.

I was quite aware of when I pushed Ircher that if I was right it'd look like Control. So I'd be the first to admit that. I was aware from pretty much the second I voted Ircher, "if he's scum people are going to compare this to Control".

Meaning that I'll back you up on the Ircher push not clearing me.

How unfortunate for you that I don't need the Ircher push to clear me then.

[mastina]

But yeah announced superscumkiller mastina didn‘t quite die before Peta and Nero.

Generally speaking, I'm never the first scum kill in the game. That's why it's genuinely shocking to me in the rare instances I am. I'm like, "wait what??? Why me?"

Similarly, I like to meme about being a scum killer but in truth my accuracy level is never as high in reality as it is in my head. I genuinely think all the scum are basically known to me, but if it were truly so foolproof that my reads weren't wrong, I wouldn't need to actually hide/obscure all my reasons, now, would I? I'm holding back specifically because I am aware that I could be wrong on my reads, and just like every time I'm the first kill is a surprise, me actually being right on all my scumreads would be a surprise.

But I have the scumreads so I'm not going to not push them just out of fear that I'll be wrong. So if I see someone who looks like scum...I'mma push them as scum.

(Side-note, this is also one of the reasons I am pushing my reads so hard right now. I have said that I'm going to do a full reveal on D4. This means that scum shouldn't kill me before N3, and that's

if

they fear the reveal. If they don't fear it, then I'd live even longer.

So if I DO die before N3, I want it to be clear that it's NOT scum shooting me for PR fears. The scum know they can wait until N3 at the very least. Especially with town killstoppers dead, they can afford to kill me any night. Meaning they can afford to have it be a

later

night.

In other words: if I die earlier, I want it to be clear that the scum chose to shot me due to my reads. Not PR hunting. Not out of fear of my D4 reveal. If I die before N3, it'd be because the scum genuinely thought that I off of

play alone

was too big of a threat to wait until a later night. That I was a bigger threat than the likes of Vivax, jjh, etc. That would be significant. If I died before Vivax the town vig, it would mean the scum saw me as such a big threat by play that they couldn't afford to leave me alive.

Thus. I have incentive to tryhard here. If I die N3, nobody would bat an eye. They'd think "oh mastina promised a D4 reveal, scum killed her to prevent that". If I died N1 or N2, then people

should

--I very clearly am not a threat to them by role until at earliest N3 and there are much much much better kills to make than me. So if I die when there's better kills to make than me, it means the scum feared me for my

reads

.

Which is why I need to post an updated readslist with updated reasoning.)

[mastina]

because the sign of a genuine belief in his reads is missing.

and that sign is?

Visible obvious belief he has caught something that is important, basically.

He's made cases for people being scum, but they lack that A-HA! factor. Or rather, it's different.

His case on me and Titus is "A-HA! I can use these things to push these slots as scum". Having reads that he believes are good to push, and then finding things that he believes make that push believable.

His cases as town are more "A-HA! I have found a slot that looks like scum for this".

[mastina]

How you see a vote by Ircher on Ausuka and conclude it‘s not his town game is beyond me.

I mean, I've been playing this game on this site for 14 years (holy shit 2008 was that long ago I'm

old

old), so I've had lots of time to practice getting reads in the RVS and hone it into an art.

I once was half-way writing a guide for how I do it and identify town/scum RVS entrances, but never finished it and my draft has since been lost. I internalized the knowledge but forgot the process used. You know how if you do something often enough how it becomes automatic? I developed a--fairly decent--technique for reading people in the rvs. I don't even remember what it was! I had this whole methodology. It was a

science

. But I internalized it, so that now all I can really say is, "gut!".

It's not gut, it's me internally using the process I honed/refined over the course of those years. But because I can't actually remember what the process was due to just how much I internalized it and how the notes which developed the process were lost, I don't have a better word to use.

That said, the process was enhanced by Ircher being a player I am quite familiar with. I have a technique that allows me to read players in general, but I didn't need it for Ircher. He was just that obvious. He'd be scum by that technique, but he was also just scum by every metric. Meta, play, etc. All from page one.

I lowkey suspect Ircher has scumgame burnout and didn't even really want to try.

Your unwillingness to loosen the screws on Roden gives me lots of doubts

I mean. I'm not willing to let go of a correct scumread when we have a chance to eliminate scum every day here.

There are other slots who could be scum, but precious few. I'd be sad a Lukewarm elimination wasn't a Roden elimination but he'd be okay. fire would be another one. RCE wouldn't be terrible. But while all of them have quite a high chance of being scum, Roden has the

highest

chance of being scum.

[mastina]

this is exactly what your approach looks like tho

I am not Lukewarm tho.

Tells that apply to one player do not apply to another.

Me? I get accused of deciding what reads I want to push literally every game (no seriously, it's literally. every. game. Without fail)--even from players calling me town for doing it. It ain't a tell for me. (Or even if it was, probably actually a towntell.)

Lukewarm on the other hand? It IS a tell for

him

.

It's incredibly disingenuous as fuck for you to suggest my point on Lukewarm is invalid by saying I do the thing that I already said is a

specific to Lukewarm

tell. Me doing it carries an entirely different meaning to Lukewarm doing it and it is Lukewarm doing it which makes him scum.

[mastina]

is that the entire basis for the scumread?

Respectfully, Ircher's already dead. I don't really want to reveal how I read him correctly in full, so that next time we play, he hasn't had the chance to fully adapt.

Like, he'll certainly try to. But the more info I give him, the better he'll be; the less info I give him, the less he'll be able to.

I don't see the benefit in outing my exact process on a scum who's already dead.

so it's a tonal read, mostly?

Actually I'd say "tonal read, partially". Tone

is

part of it, but it's also

formatting

. And content. And process. Lukewarm as town has a certain method of operations that in a sense usually has a wind-up to the a-ha moment. That's absent here. The tone is wrong, the formatting is wrong, the content/process is wrong, because his style as town has that level of build-up, whereas here he's just posting without it.

[mastina]

Spoiler: prior

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Vivax, jjh, and Something_Smart are all locktown for different, but closely linked, reasons. They have all shown a towntell that I believe demonstrates they

cannot

be scum here and absolutely must be town. All look town to me by play anyway, but that tell has me convinced each of them is town.

PenguinPower

is almost up there, because I believe PP spotted

half

of what I saw on S_S, but not the half which makes S_S town. S_S towntold in a way that cannot be scum, but if you saw only half of it, you'd think the opposite, that S_S spewed himself as scum. I have to be quite tight-lipped about this to not reveal what it is tho, but I think that PP seeing half makes him town.

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

furtiveglance

I initially had a tier below, but I decided after thinking about the people townreading furtive today's reasons, that I agreed with them. Was town D1 in an incredibly town way and I think is still worthy of the locktown tier today.

Ausuka

I had as below furtive but still at hard-town, yet I've decided to move Ausuka here after reviewing my reason for townreading Ausuka before, and I feel it still holds. Ausuka's play is incredibly anti-partner with Ircher in a way genuinely anti-partnery and with towntells that I believe are genuinely towntells. The whole exchange just looks town.

Klick

looks to be playing town, but not quite as strongly as others. It looks like what I'd expect from him as town, but I don't know what he looks like as scum. He's reasonable, he's making good posts, so his content is definitely town-sounding at the least, but I've no metric to guarantee it is the same way as I do my stronger reads.

Malakittens

would be locktown if not for a couple factors.
The first is that Malakittens was off the wagon, where I expect there to be 1-2 scum.
The second is that both the scum nightkills (confirmed to be Nero/peta per Vivax claiming the BBT vig) are the two players I would expect Mala to nightkill if she were scum. Nero wasn't widely townread, but Malakittens is one of the few players to know of Nero back in his glory days of when he was his most dangerous. Nero also knows Malakittens pretty well I'm pretty sure, so of all the players in the game, she has more incentive than almost any other to kill him.
Similarly so for petapan. I've never seen his towngame in full-swing before, but allegedly, it's pretty damn good from what I'm told. (I believe it, it's just that I've personally never seen it.) This means that basically anyone could/would kill him, but for some reason I seem to recall that peta/Malakittens have some sort of history too which if this memory is correct would make Mala want to kill him.

These factors keep Malakittens from being locktown, but she's still more likely town than not on her strength of play. It's purely NKA/VCA that implicates she

could

be scum and I trust my scumhunting-by-play tools more than I trust my NKA/VCA tools.

Titus

is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does

not

match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

RCEnigma

has been null the entire game, but at this stage, 'null' with this many players with compelling reasons to be town is quite possibly indicative of scum.
He's not been strongly present in a way suggesting town. His content is highly forgettable. When he is town, I expect to remember his posts, and to have a lot of them be agreeable. But while he's making some reasonable reads, his posts overall feel lackluster. He's someone that it's easy to forget is in the game, which is a red flag indicative of possible scum.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

Lukewarm

fits as the scum on the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. Though on D2 I'm sensing more stylistic similarities to Lukewarm's towngame, the D2 content is highly pro-scum in nature, looking to be scum that is in a tight spot and is trying to figure out a way to avoid a town sweep.

Roden

is scum ten times over in ten different ways. I'm never voting elsewhere, not even to vote another scumread. I'm not gonna lie, it ain't as strong as Ircher, but it's

pretty damn close

. If Ircher was 99% scum, then Roden is like 97%. I'll be honest tho, the main difference in that 2% is essentially, "I never catch two scum in a row. I always think I do, but I never

actually

do. I caught Ircher so I couldn't have genuinely caught a second, could I?"
Because by every other metric, yeah Roden should be as strong a scumread as Ircher. Genuinely the only reason Roden is weaker is that paranoia of me never normally being this competent.
But I'll go with the theory that I was a PROPHET when I said I'd be a SCUMHUNTING GOD, and that therefore I am indeed accurate here.

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart, PenguinPower}
{Andresvmb, furtiveglance} (to be clear, this is them moving up, not the others moving down)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Ausuka} (to be clear this is the above moving up, not these moving down)

TOWN:
{Klick}

SOFT TOWN:
{Titus}

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW TIERS:
{Malakittens}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

I'm confident in locktowning

PenguinPower

here based on his contributions here with everything I've seen here.

Andresvmp

continues to be looking better and better, looking more and more town, and I trust Malakittens's read there regardless of Mala's alignment.

furtiveglance

continues to be looking better, looking more and more town.

The other locktown remain locktown, just not having recently contributed much.

Klick

is doing much I think to be town, but not in a quality that makes me absolutely

sure

he's town. He's doing all town things, it's just that I don't know his scum capabilities and he's not posting as much as the others who I am confident in their townness.

Titus

would be much higher up based on the players pushing her and her meta, but there's a strength of read thing going on. She's not so much a weak townread so much as it is that all the others are just that much stronger townreads.

Malakittens

has VCA and NKA implicating her and her contributions have mostly been saying Andres is town, so she's not doing all of much. However, while it's definitely possible she's scum if 2/4 of my scumreads are town, I don't really think she is right now; her content still looks town to me.

RCEnigma

is doing basically nothing. And for him, that is concerning. His reads look good, but his content? Not so much. He's only not scum because I have three stronger reads pretty much.

[mastina]

You don‘t really re-evaluate no matter what he says

Why re-evaluate a right read into a wrong one?

I am always re-evaluating my reads but every time I come to the conclusion that Roden is far more likely to be scum than town.

Could

I be wrong? Yeah! But I don't think I AM wrong. It's play and claim. Just one would be suspicious; both in tandem heavily implies the read is right. Nothing Roden has done has made me think he's town. He's posted things that have made me go, "okay, I can see how if Roden is town, these were signs of it". But not signs that are town.

I'm not sure if that makes sense. Basically, if Roden is town then from his posts I'll be able to see it in hindsight, but with Roden alive now I don't see it because the town posts are too weak compared to the overall scumness present if that makes sense. Like, yeah, I see how he

could

be town, but from everything I have seen, I don't think he actually is town.

[mastina]

Do you have an opinion comparing Roden right now to GNG upick

It's not a match imo. I can see the vaguest of vague similarities in the "well I'm not telling" play on the day Roden got eliminated, but the nature of Roden's content there compared to here doesn't match up. What Roden was doing outside of the stubbornness in regards to the claim was different, and Roden was still a lot less opaque that game.

Yeah he still lied, and refused to admit it, but he was still a lot more open and engaging. He was doing far more than this game. He was still being strong. He was still being town. Here he's just...not.

[mastina]

I would like to be clear, that my point was NOT that it looks like The Single Game Control. My point was that it looks like the way that scum!Mastina, in general, interacts with her scum partners early on.

Freebie for reading me:
I don't bus my scumbuddies when I know that I need to be kept alive;
I

heavily

bus my scumbuddies when I believe that

they

need to be kept alive, but *I* do not. (How does this work? Well, basically, I never plan on being the lategame scum; I always assume I get eliminated. If I get eliminated while laying reads that clear my scumbuddies, then I further my wincon even in death. I literally wrote an article saying not to bus, because by default when I don't see the need for me to die, I won't actually bus. The article remains true; bussing is stupid to blindly do. I only bus when I feel my teammates will get benefit from it.)

In Control, I valued Ircher's life more than my own, which is WHY I pushed him; I thought I'd go down and would prop him up. Yeah, I was a roleblocker and that was a good role, but I was also in a game with a lot of people I expected could correctly read me, AND Ircher was a role much much much stronger than a roleblocker. It obviously didn't pan out that way, but the

idea

was for me to die before any of my scumbuddies and make sure all of my scumbuddies looked town.

In Multiball 2, I needed to die during the night, so I was actively setting my scumbuddies up to thrive after I died. (And, hey, if it weren't for the other team killing both of them, it'd have worked! Neither of my scumbuddies was killed by the town.)

I can tell you that this game I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him. Yes he was deadweight, but deadweight can still be saved reasonably from a town perspective. (Could've sworn that article had a section where I say "your town self is stupider than you give yourself credit for", but oh well.)

I don't see the benefit in outing my exact process on a scum who's already dead.

because it looks a little fabricated considering the differences between his town page 1 vote and his scum page 1 vote are awfully minimal?

Not to me.

Any player of sufficient skill will have their towngames and scumgames look similar superficially. To someone not in the know, that'd make the differences look awfully minimal, because if you're anywhere remotely close to skilled at scum you know how to make your scumgame look ~90-99% like your towngame.

It's finding the 1-10% that matters.

He literally called me locked town on an Ircher scum flip, and had not yet explained it. He also had vivax and Titus as his strongest scum reads.
I don't kill that slot in the world that you are perpetrating to believe is the the world that we are in. I wait until night 2.

peta was killed when we have a fairly good idea that his reads weren't accurate. That means any "I wouldn't kill him because he was townreading me" defense is invalid. peta's reads weren't kill-worthy N1, yet he died N1. That means he wasn't killed for his reads. And if he wasn't killed for his reads and he wasn't killed for his role (which I don't think he was, unless he 'crumbed something that the scum saw which I did not), which means he was killed for a reason neither reads-related nor role-related.

What's left if not reputation?

And you would be among those who know of his reputation. It seems pretty clear that petapan was a fear-kill. Killed not for what he had said, but for the fear of what he had the

potential

to say. AKA, fear that his reads would shift from inaccurate to accurate.

The rest of every thing that Mastina said about me feels like lots and lots of walls of text to say the vibes are off, so :shurg:

Nope! I actually described what you are missing from your towngame and how your content has been disingenuous-as-fuck and how you're matching evidence to reads rather than reads to evidence.

[mastina]

I still think Roden not really talking about the Ircher wagon at all when it was (imo) the primary discussion point is strongly scummy.

So do I, especially given their role similarity.

It really feels like you're making this up. I understand why someone would be suspicious of me in a vacuum but this argument feels like you started at the premise "ausuka is scum" and then made up reasoning to reach that viewpoint.

You are correct; fire did this for you.
You know who else has done that?

Lukewarm with his Titus/mastina cases.
Both are scum!

I mean, I *agree* with the Lukewarm case. You can look back and see me saying the same things, I'm pretty sure - and peta also thought this! I don't think this really applies to luke here.

It applies.
I understand why someone would be suspicious of Titus in a vacuum. Or heck, even suspicious of me in a vacuum.
Those reads are not in of themselves bad.
But Lukewarm is explicitly making them up. He started with the premise of scum, then made up reasoning to reach that viewpoint. Reasoning which from an outside perspective looks like "oh this seems plausible enough" both as a narrative on the individual and as from coming from a viewpoint from town.

But the issue arises in that Lukewarm's narrative is only consistent from an outside viewpoint casually glancing in--it's not something internally consistent. Lukewarm's cases don't come from the perspective of trying to figure out the alignment of the player in question and demonstrating the conclusion he thinks they are scum. Lukewarm's cases demonstrate he thinks they are scum and then demonstrate the narrative used to justify this viewpoint.

The cases make efforts to ignore inconveniences that get in the way of the point being right. They manipulate things in a disingenuous way lacking honesty, by exaggerating points in favor of the viewpoint and downplaying the points in opposition to the viewpoint.

[mastina]

because she decided at the start of the game that she was going to scumread Ircher?

Ausuka you're lucky that the me(facet) who is fronting right now is not

actually

mastina(the facet) because she is furious and wants to scream at you for this.

I'll keep it fairly polite and say:

DON'T

make this accusation.

I never decide reads in advance. (I need to hit submit on this post before mastina actually does start fronting because she has a lot to say about that shit.)

[mastina]

I hope I get town points for this.

As a matter of fact: yes, you do!

I feel like this meta has been brought up in the thread, so I'm surprised you find it scummy?

It's almost like Lukewarm made up a read, that he knew would make sense in a vacuum, so he started with the premise of me being scum and then made up the reasoning to reach that viewpoint.

[mastina]

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb

,

Klick

, Malakittens,

Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm

,

Vivax

,

Ausuka

Hmm I wonder which of these wagons is scumdriven?

Just a thought.

[mastina]

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb

,

Klick

, Malakittens,

Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm

,

Vivax

,

Ausuka

Hmm I wonder which of these wagons is scumdriven?

Just a thought.

OOPS WRONG YDRASSE COLOR, fix'd.

[mastina]

but what about that do you think is specific to luke being scum?

Because Luke is thorough and meticulous as town and absolutely methodical. His towngame is well-thought-out and doesn't make the ""mistakes"" in narrative he has made this game.

[mastina]

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb

,

Klick

, Malakittens,

Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm

,

Vivax

,

Ausuka

Hmm I wonder which of these wagons is scumdriven?

Just a thought.

im sure you'll be happy to hear that i was just debating whether i wanted to vote titus

Yup, feel free to tho; I'd love to point back to the Titus wagon and how it is identical to the earlier wagon on her compositionally for how consistent the Titus wagon has been in being a scumdriven narrative.

[mastina]

but what about that do you think is specific to luke being scum?

Because Luke is thorough and meticulous as town and absolutely methodical. His towngame is well-thought-out and doesn't make the ""mistakes"" in narrative he has made this game.

could you point out any specific examples of mistakes in narrative that he's made?

I already have; it's in his Titus/mastina cases. I'm kinda clocking out of mafia for the moment right now so don't really feel like rehashing it again but I've made my points on why Titus is town here and don't feel like reiterating them again.

[mastina]

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb

,

Klick

, Malakittens,

Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm

,

Vivax

,

Ausuka

Hmm I wonder which of these wagons is scumdriven?

Just a thought.

OOPS WRONG YDRASSE COLOR, fix'd.

[mastina]

I can tell you that this game I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him. Yes he was deadweight, but deadweight can still be saved reasonably from a town perspective. (Could've sworn that article had a section where I say "your town self is stupider than you give yourself credit for", but oh well.)

So, why are you now acting like listing Ircher as your strongest scum read on page one is something that you "certainly wouldn't" have done this game as scum?

Because in

this

game, I wouldn't have. It's that simple, really. I didn't say I couldn't, or that in general I wouldn't. I said that in this game I wouldn't.

I meant exactly what I said. I might bus to set Ircher up in general. But in this game I wouldn't. In this game Ircher would explicitly be worth less than me. And I don't bus scum who are worth less than me; I only bus scum who are worth more than me. So in this game specifically, I wouldn't have bussed Ircher. I would have strong reason to not have done so. (Specifically, because of knowing about CONTROL. A big,

big

thing about my scumgames is that I avoid doing the same ploy twice. I bussed Ircher in CONTROL, which means that I

couldn't

bus Ircher in this game because everyone would know about how I did so in CONTROL. Bussing the same player the same way in two scumgames would mean that if the game has literally any of the same players or literally any player who looked at the previous game, they'd make the connection. It's surface-level stupidity to think I'd do the exact same move twice for the same scumbuddy.)

I‘m convinced some kind of distant perception exists over this forum game at times. I have been kinda essaying it throughout my games.
Sometimes I believe I can feel other‘s emotion‘s, not everyone‘s, not always.

Oh you might be an Empath, then. No, seriously. I am an empath and I have that exact same thing happen. I take on the emotions/feelings of those around me and have them as their own.
When people are sad, I get sad; when people radiate happiness, I become as happy as they are. I genuinely feel the emotions of others as my own emotions. Events that I have no emotional attachment to I get as emotional as the person who has the attachment to that event, feeling their feelings.

It works in person, but it also works online. I can pick up on the anger of someone and begin to feel angry myself. (This, ahhh...is not a good thing if someone is angry at me and I become angry at them.) I can pick up on a lot of emotions. It's not a 100% thing. It only works about 50-90% of the time. Where I have the connection established to be able to feel it.

So you're not wrong. It exists. It's real. It's a thing.

I

knew

there was a reason I instavibed with you in TFT.
(Empaths tend to have an easier time vibing with other empaths since they just collectively "get" experiences of each other.)

Can we at least pretend to SR her

I mean, we

could

, but I don't want anyone to on a later day look back at our dead bodies and point to our faked scumreads and go "see they were scumreading Ydrasse" when we're no longer able to make it clear that they were a joke.

Alas.

you've said why you think titus is town but not why luke's points come from scum

The two are intrinsically linked--it's

because

Titus is town for reasons that are fairly strong and obvious, that Lukewarm's points come from scum.

the a-ha factor point is reasonable ig, i wanted to know what specific mistakes in narratives he had tho

You literally just said I pointed out why Titus is town. The reasons I pointed out for Titus being town demonstrate the mistakes in Lukewarm's narrative.

Roden [5]:

mastina

, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse

All of these people (and also Titus who voted since the vote count), really need to check in post his full claim and all of the interactions surrounding it, and declare that they still want to be voting him, or find a new place to be.

Nice attempt to paint the Roden wagon as a dead wagon but it ain't one.

The Roden wagon is still strong because the content relating to Roden since the votes cast does nothing to diminish why Roden is scum.

[mastina]

she ALREADY would have known that the value of her life vs the value of Irchers life was well outside the standard.

This is a scumslip from Lukewarm revealing he knows I'm town.

Because, uh: if I were scum with Ircher then I'd know the value of my life versus his from the moment I got my role PM--well before the first game posts of the game. I'd know which players were town (which gives me an idea of what the playerlist will think of me), and I'd know what our roles were.

The only way I wouldn't know the value is if I was town.

Luke just pissed I made a real case on his buddy and wants me to actually validate his arguments.

This is true. Lukewarm is desperate to dissolve the Roden wagon.

It's because the scum know they're fucked if they lose another member.

Kinda wild how all of Roden/Lukewarm/fire have gone harder and harder into defending one another as the day has progressed, isn't it?

Like, I can quote their posts from earlier in the game and demonstrate how their reads on each other differed in that gamestate.
And how the game has progressed especially on D2 they've gone harder and harder into defending one another.
And how as the day has progressed, they've grown more and more desperate to wagon any player not Roden.

[mastina]

Mastina told her to back her up in the scum chat

Funny, that seems to be what you/Lukewarm/fire keep doing for each other.

Like, it's literally there in your isos, how you've gone from varying reads on each other to over time defending each other more and more.

[mastina]

Luke just pissed I made a real case on his buddy and wants me to actually validate his arguments.

This is true. Lukewarm is desperate to dissolve the Roden wagon.

It's because the scum know they're fucked if they lose another member.

Kinda wild how all of Roden/Lukewarm/fire have gone harder and harder into defending one another as the day has progressed, isn't it?

Like, I can quote their posts from earlier in the game and demonstrate how their reads on each other differed in that gamestate.
And how the game has progressed especially on D2 they've gone harder and harder into defending one another.
And how as the day has progressed, they've grown more and more desperate to wagon any player not Roden.

Mastina told her to back her up in the scum chat

Funny, that seems to be what you/Lukewarm/fire keep doing for each other.

Like, it's literally there in your isos, how you've gone from varying reads on each other to over time defending each other more and more.

This is dead serious btw.

Anyone caring to do the research, you can check this!

Check Lukewarm's read progression on Roden and fireisredsir.
Check Roden's read progression on Lukewarm and fireisredsir.
Check fireisredsir's read progression on Lukewarm and Roden.

Especially on D2.

You can also check where they are pushing, too.

[mastina]

Oh were you planning on faking vig and Vivak true claimed first

For the record: anyone with any semblance of doubt that Titus is town need look no further than drunk-Titus's post here.

The tinfoil theory that Lukewarm is scum who planned to fakeclaim vig before Vivax realclaimed it is one that I don't think Titus could come up with if she were scum--and even if she

could

, certainly not while

drunk

could she explain/out this theory so fluently.

[mastina]

Gonna current page this

Y'know Lukewarm for someone accusing others of not reevaluating Roden off of new info...

...You sure seem to not be reevaluating Titus off of new info!

Gee, I wonder why there's this inconsistency between your stance/approach on Roden, and your stance/approach on Titus.

[mastina]

Spoiler: prior

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Vivax, jjh, and Something_Smart are all locktown for different, but closely linked, reasons. They have all shown a towntell that I believe demonstrates they

cannot

be scum here and absolutely must be town. All look town to me by play anyway, but that tell has me convinced each of them is town.

PenguinPower

is almost up there, because I believe PP spotted

half

of what I saw on S_S, but not the half which makes S_S town. S_S towntold in a way that cannot be scum, but if you saw only half of it, you'd think the opposite, that S_S spewed himself as scum. I have to be quite tight-lipped about this to not reveal what it is tho, but I think that PP seeing half makes him town.

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

furtiveglance

I initially had a tier below, but I decided after thinking about the people townreading furtive today's reasons, that I agreed with them. Was town D1 in an incredibly town way and I think is still worthy of the locktown tier today.

Ausuka

I had as below furtive but still at hard-town, yet I've decided to move Ausuka here after reviewing my reason for townreading Ausuka before, and I feel it still holds. Ausuka's play is incredibly anti-partner with Ircher in a way genuinely anti-partnery and with towntells that I believe are genuinely towntells. The whole exchange just looks town.

Klick

looks to be playing town, but not quite as strongly as others. It looks like what I'd expect from him as town, but I don't know what he looks like as scum. He's reasonable, he's making good posts, so his content is definitely town-sounding at the least, but I've no metric to guarantee it is the same way as I do my stronger reads.

Malakittens

would be locktown if not for a couple factors.
The first is that Malakittens was off the wagon, where I expect there to be 1-2 scum.
The second is that both the scum nightkills (confirmed to be Nero/peta per Vivax claiming the BBT vig) are the two players I would expect Mala to nightkill if she were scum. Nero wasn't widely townread, but Malakittens is one of the few players to know of Nero back in his glory days of when he was his most dangerous. Nero also knows Malakittens pretty well I'm pretty sure, so of all the players in the game, she has more incentive than almost any other to kill him.
Similarly so for petapan. I've never seen his towngame in full-swing before, but allegedly, it's pretty damn good from what I'm told. (I believe it, it's just that I've personally never seen it.) This means that basically anyone could/would kill him, but for some reason I seem to recall that peta/Malakittens have some sort of history too which if this memory is correct would make Mala want to kill him.

These factors keep Malakittens from being locktown, but she's still more likely town than not on her strength of play. It's purely NKA/VCA that implicates she

could

be scum and I trust my scumhunting-by-play tools more than I trust my NKA/VCA tools.

Titus

is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does

not

match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

RCEnigma

has been null the entire game, but at this stage, 'null' with this many players with compelling reasons to be town is quite possibly indicative of scum.
He's not been strongly present in a way suggesting town. His content is highly forgettable. When he is town, I expect to remember his posts, and to have a lot of them be agreeable. But while he's making some reasonable reads, his posts overall feel lackluster. He's someone that it's easy to forget is in the game, which is a red flag indicative of possible scum.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

Lukewarm

fits as the scum on the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. Though on D2 I'm sensing more stylistic similarities to Lukewarm's towngame, the D2 content is highly pro-scum in nature, looking to be scum that is in a tight spot and is trying to figure out a way to avoid a town sweep.

Roden

is scum ten times over in ten different ways. I'm never voting elsewhere, not even to vote another scumread. I'm not gonna lie, it ain't as strong as Ircher, but it's

pretty damn close

. If Ircher was 99% scum, then Roden is like 97%. I'll be honest tho, the main difference in that 2% is essentially, "I never catch two scum in a row. I always think I do, but I never

actually

do. I caught Ircher so I couldn't have genuinely caught a second, could I?"
Because by every other metric, yeah Roden should be as strong a scumread as Ircher. Genuinely the only reason Roden is weaker is that paranoia of me never normally being this competent.
But I'll go with the theory that I was a PROPHET when I said I'd be a SCUMHUNTING GOD, and that therefore I am indeed accurate here.

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart, PenguinPower}
{Andresvmb, furtiveglance} (to be clear, this is them moving up, not the others moving down)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Ausuka} (to be clear this is the above moving up, not these moving down)

TOWN:
{Klick}

SOFT TOWN:
{Titus}

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW TIERS:
{Malakittens}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

I'm confident in locktowning

PenguinPower

here based on his contributions here with everything I've seen here.

Andresvmp

continues to be looking better and better, looking more and more town, and I trust Malakittens's read there regardless of Mala's alignment.

furtiveglance

continues to be looking better, looking more and more town.

The other locktown remain locktown, just not having recently contributed much.

Klick

is doing much I think to be town, but not in a quality that makes me absolutely

sure

he's town. He's doing all town things, it's just that I don't know his scum capabilities and he's not posting as much as the others who I am confident in their townness.

Titus

would be much higher up based on the players pushing her and her meta, but there's a strength of read thing going on. She's not so much a weak townread so much as it is that all the others are just that much stronger townreads.

Malakittens

has VCA and NKA implicating her and her contributions have mostly been saying Andres is town, so she's not doing all of much. However, while it's definitely possible she's scum if 2/4 of my scumreads are town, I don't really think she is right now; her content still looks town to me.

RCEnigma

is doing basically nothing. And for him, that is concerning. His reads look good, but his content? Not so much. He's only not scum because I have three stronger reads pretty much.

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart, PenguinPower}
{Andresvmb, furtiveglance}
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Ausuka, Titus}

TOWN:
{Klick}

??? (tbh):
{Malakittens}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

I'm comfortable moving Titus up to locktown at this point to be honest. There's just too much she has going for her. Departure from her established patterns as scum; content posted; consistent counterwagon to scum; pushers of her elimination largely being suspect; play more clearly being town; etc.

Any individual thing wouldn't be enough, but collectively as a whole I'm comfortable with that locktown read right now.

[mastina]

Okay I have a new hot take:

One, but not both, of {Lukewarm, Dannflor} are scum.

They are

not

scumbuddies, but they are

not

both town.

Their interactions already have me sure that they're not partnered together but both look like scum interacting with town, if that makes sense. One of them is town being interacted with by scum; the other is scum interacting with town.

I think that fireisredsir is scum regardless and Roden remains scum regardless and the proof that Roden is scum regardless lies in the fact that the scum keep on trying Titus/Something_Smart counterwagons to Roden and the composition of the Roden wagon has remained basically pure as pure can be the entire time so is towndriven.

[mastina]

(Have read, will back that reading with commentary now, obv.)

[mastina]

Okay I have a new hot take:

One, but not both, of {Lukewarm, Dannflor} are scum.

They are

not

scumbuddies, but they are

not

both town.

(Basically, I know it's been a while since I've seen Dannflor play as a replacement, but this doesn't look like his town-replacement approach. The formatting, the subjects he's engaged in, his focus, where he is looking, how he is engaging, etc. All of it lacks the Dannflor replacement flair I expect from him.

But he's 100% never scum with Lukewarm here from their interactions with each other. Their interactions are

not

scum-scum. It's not how scumbuddies talk to each other. It's way too organic, way too fluid, way too natural, way too unscripted, as it were. They cannot be scum having this back-and-forth fluently, so there is only one scum in the two.

Yet Lukewarm also radiates scum with everything he is doing for much of the same reason--where he has focused, the formatting, what he is engaged in, a lack of reassessment when faced with new info, etc.

Since neither Lukewarm nor Dannflor are my focus for today, we can put off sorting there until tomorrow tho, I'll figure it out then ideally when cross-referenced with fireisredsir.)

[mastina]

I think the scumteam is trying to feel out if they can get mastina eliminated today because they feel trapped by her influence and accurate perception of the game

This.

There's no

votes

on me, sure. But there's a specific subset of players who suspect me. While there's a few among them that are town, I think it no coincidence that most are my scumreads.

Keep in mind also that the scum don't need to vote me to try and fight my influence--just trying to discredit my credibility by saying I could be scum is enough to dissuade folks from following me.

[mastina]

It's a trait that backfires easily. Is why I mostly prefer to be on my own with nothing but my thoughts. And often look like I'm daydreaming around others.

Yeah the "zone-out" effect is real. It's ridiculously easy to get overstimulated and just...not "be there", as it were.

Being by myself is peaceful, calm, serene, since I know it to be free of the influence of others. (That said, my thoughts are sadly not always the best, butstill. At least when by myself, I know they're mine, not those of someone else.)

definitely not seeing fire-scum

I'll probably be able to sell you on fire-scum tomorrow with relative ease, but it's not worth tackling today.

I think Mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, and Roden are all town

Then who would you propose as scum?

It's

not

Something_Smart. There's only one circumstance I can ever see Something_Smart being scum in and testing it is not the play today. So who's scum?

Spoiler: prior

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Vivax, jjh, and Something_Smart are all locktown for different, but closely linked, reasons. They have all shown a towntell that I believe demonstrates they

cannot

be scum here and absolutely must be town. All look town to me by play anyway, but that tell has me convinced each of them is town.

PenguinPower

is almost up there, because I believe PP spotted

half

of what I saw on S_S, but not the half which makes S_S town. S_S towntold in a way that cannot be scum, but if you saw only half of it, you'd think the opposite, that S_S spewed himself as scum. I have to be quite tight-lipped about this to not reveal what it is tho, but I think that PP seeing half makes him town.

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

furtiveglance

I initially had a tier below, but I decided after thinking about the people townreading furtive today's reasons, that I agreed with them. Was town D1 in an incredibly town way and I think is still worthy of the locktown tier today.

Ausuka

I had as below furtive but still at hard-town, yet I've decided to move Ausuka here after reviewing my reason for townreading Ausuka before, and I feel it still holds. Ausuka's play is incredibly anti-partner with Ircher in a way genuinely anti-partnery and with towntells that I believe are genuinely towntells. The whole exchange just looks town.

Klick

looks to be playing town, but not quite as strongly as others. It looks like what I'd expect from him as town, but I don't know what he looks like as scum. He's reasonable, he's making good posts, so his content is definitely town-sounding at the least, but I've no metric to guarantee it is the same way as I do my stronger reads.

Malakittens

would be locktown if not for a couple factors.
The first is that Malakittens was off the wagon, where I expect there to be 1-2 scum.
The second is that both the scum nightkills (confirmed to be Nero/peta per Vivax claiming the BBT vig) are the two players I would expect Mala to nightkill if she were scum. Nero wasn't widely townread, but Malakittens is one of the few players to know of Nero back in his glory days of when he was his most dangerous. Nero also knows Malakittens pretty well I'm pretty sure, so of all the players in the game, she has more incentive than almost any other to kill him.
Similarly so for petapan. I've never seen his towngame in full-swing before, but allegedly, it's pretty damn good from what I'm told. (I believe it, it's just that I've personally never seen it.) This means that basically anyone could/would kill him, but for some reason I seem to recall that peta/Malakittens have some sort of history too which if this memory is correct would make Mala want to kill him.

These factors keep Malakittens from being locktown, but she's still more likely town than not on her strength of play. It's purely NKA/VCA that implicates she

could

be scum and I trust my scumhunting-by-play tools more than I trust my NKA/VCA tools.

Titus

is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does

not

match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

RCEnigma

has been null the entire game, but at this stage, 'null' with this many players with compelling reasons to be town is quite possibly indicative of scum.
He's not been strongly present in a way suggesting town. His content is highly forgettable. When he is town, I expect to remember his posts, and to have a lot of them be agreeable. But while he's making some reasonable reads, his posts overall feel lackluster. He's someone that it's easy to forget is in the game, which is a red flag indicative of possible scum.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

Lukewarm

fits as the scum on the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. Though on D2 I'm sensing more stylistic similarities to Lukewarm's towngame, the D2 content is highly pro-scum in nature, looking to be scum that is in a tight spot and is trying to figure out a way to avoid a town sweep.

Roden

is scum ten times over in ten different ways. I'm never voting elsewhere, not even to vote another scumread. I'm not gonna lie, it ain't as strong as Ircher, but it's

pretty damn close

. If Ircher was 99% scum, then Roden is like 97%. I'll be honest tho, the main difference in that 2% is essentially, "I never catch two scum in a row. I always think I do, but I never

actually

do. I caught Ircher so I couldn't have genuinely caught a second, could I?"
Because by every other metric, yeah Roden should be as strong a scumread as Ircher. Genuinely the only reason Roden is weaker is that paranoia of me never normally being this competent.
But I'll go with the theory that I was a PROPHET when I said I'd be a SCUMHUNTING GOD, and that therefore I am indeed accurate here.

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart, PenguinPower}
{Andresvmb, furtiveglance} (to be clear, this is them moving up, not the others moving down)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Ausuka} (to be clear this is the above moving up, not these moving down)

TOWN:
{Klick}

SOFT TOWN:
{Titus}

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW TIERS:
{Malakittens}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

I'm confident in locktowning

PenguinPower

here based on his contributions here with everything I've seen here.

Andresvmp

continues to be looking better and better, looking more and more town, and I trust Malakittens's read there regardless of Mala's alignment.

furtiveglance

continues to be looking better, looking more and more town.

The other locktown remain locktown, just not having recently contributed much.

Klick

is doing much I think to be town, but not in a quality that makes me absolutely

sure

he's town. He's doing all town things, it's just that I don't know his scum capabilities and he's not posting as much as the others who I am confident in their townness.

Titus

would be much higher up based on the players pushing her and her meta, but there's a strength of read thing going on. She's not so much a weak townread so much as it is that all the others are just that much stronger townreads.

Malakittens

has VCA and NKA implicating her and her contributions have mostly been saying Andres is town, so she's not doing all of much. However, while it's definitely possible she's scum if 2/4 of my scumreads are town, I don't really think she is right now; her content still looks town to me.

RCEnigma

is doing basically nothing. And for him, that is concerning. His reads look good, but his content? Not so much. He's only not scum because I have three stronger reads pretty much.

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart, PenguinPower}
{Andresvmb, furtiveglance}
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Ausuka, Titus}

TOWN:
{Klick}

??? (tbh):
{Malakittens}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

I'm comfortable moving Titus up to locktown at this point to be honest. There's just too much she has going for her. Departure from her established patterns as scum; content posted; consistent counterwagon to scum; pushers of her elimination largely being suspect; play more clearly being town; etc.

Any individual thing wouldn't be enough, but collectively as a whole I'm comfortable with that locktown read right now.

You are town.
Vivax is town.
PenguinPower is town.
I'm quite confident in Andres and furtive both being town.
Titus is town.
Ausuka is quite likely to be town.
Uncrowned has a ton making the slot town.
Ydrasse's play has gotten weaker but is still more town than not.
Klick has only gotten more and more town the more he posts.

So who is scum?

Malakittens? Possible from NKA/VCA but her play looks town.
RCE/Dannflor? Well if Lukewarm is town, yes. 1/2 of them is town and the other is scum so if Lukewarm were town then the RCE/Dannflor slot would be scum.
fireisredsir? Well explicitly so yeah.

But there really isn't a lot of slots who

can

be scum.

It's not just that I have strong scumreads on the slots I am scumreading. (Altho that is also true.)

It's that I have strong townreads on the vast majority of the game, which leaves only a ridiculously small pool for possible scum.

[mastina]

Oh were you planning on faking vig and Vivak true claimed first

For the record: anyone with any semblance of doubt that Titus is town need look no further than drunk-Titus's post here.

The tinfoil theory that Lukewarm is scum who planned to fakeclaim vig before Vivax realclaimed it is one that I don't think Titus could come up with if she were scum--and even if she

could

, certainly not while

drunk

could she explain/out this theory so fluently.

I don't find her coming up with a reason to push me town indicative, and also your bar for "so fluently" is broken lol

My metric is working just fine.

Titus coming up with reasons to push you is not town-indicative.

Titus coming up with

that specific theory

while

drunk

is town-indicative.

Titus was fluent in being able to explain her theory and her viewpoint. She was drunk, so her thoughts were broken and fragmented, but the narrative was still explained well enough to get her point across. She explained her theory while heavily not sober and also highly distracted. It was not a preplanned thing.

Titus as scum is meticulous in her planning. She doesn't do things on a whim. She doesn't do things spontaneously. She is calculating and thorough. But her drunk posting lacked that precision. Titus drunkposting is not a towntell in of itself, mind you. Because Titus can and has been drunk as scum before. But when a scum-Titus has been drunk before, she has never produced a whole-scale theory on a faked scumread she wanted to push.

Titus didn't get drunk and come into the thread with a plan to present a theory. Titus got drunk and came into the thread and did posting which happened to give a theory. The distinction is important. It hard-townspews Titus because while any individual aspect could come from scum, it is the whole altogether that absolutely cannot.

Titus could come up with reasons to push you as scum.
Titus could drunkpost as scum.
Titus could plan out reasons to push you.
Titus could as scum drunkpost things that don't add anything new.

But Titus developing a tinfoil reason for you to be scum while drunk, without planning, is proof that she is never scum here.

And the only reason my suspicion on you isn't growing is because I actually think Dannflor is scum more than you, right now. (No seriously.)

[mastina]

I am questioning why you "most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life about your own" in this game

Because Ircher's role is worth less than a goon. It's literally a liability.

That, plus this game has a grand total of four players I'd expect to be problematic in scumreading me, and literally none of them are charismatic. Malakittens isn't, jjh isn't, Nero isn't, and Titus isn't. Nobody in this game is familiar enough with my scum, with the ability to argue that I am scum. There's charismatic players present like petapan and when he really gets going Klick, but while most of the players have

played

with me, the only ones likely to

scumread

me are the four who have no charisma.

Thus as scum I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own because both from a role perspective and a play perspective I'd have no reason to want to prop him up. Add in that I never make the same play twice as scum (easily verifiable btw as I have a long-standing meta where I can document this lack of repetition* and deliberate avoidance of it--in fact this is such a strong thing that I might need to be careful about avoiding running afoul of a listmod banning me for a trust tell of it because it has held true across hundreds of scumgames), and the fact that my push on Ircher looks identical to Control hard-clears me.

*(You can probably find me talking about it by searching for whenever I mention the TVTropes term, It Only Works Once--once a trick is known, it can never be used exactly the same way again. You can make

broad strokes

that are

similar

. The strategy of letting myself go down to prop my scumbuddies up worked for

years

fairly reliably. But it was still

implemented

differently each time. There were overarching broad strokes of it being the same basic idea, but the execution was different each time.
Basically, people tend to naively think that the idea of "don't fix what's not broken" where I don't adapt my scumplay when the strategy is shown to have worked, is mutually exclusive with It Only Works Once, but in fact, no, they are not mutually exclusive. They augment each other. You can't use the exact same trick twice, but you can use two different tricks that have similar outcomes/premises/etc. For instance, if you were to use a phaser to shoot to kill, then a borg might adapt to it. But if you use a disintegrator, the borg won't have adapted to it. Both are energy guns that kill their target--the "don't fix what's not broken" half where they are both aiming to do the same thing. But the method they use to achieve the thing is still different.
In a game sense, I can bus a scumbuddy from page one, but bussing the

same

scumbuddy in the

exact same way

won't work twice. Ever. So I wouldn't do it. Once the exact method I used to bus a specific scumbuddy has been seen, it can't be used again. So my interaction with Ircher being identical in this game to Control when Ircher was scum hard-clears me because as scum I never would use the identical strategy thanks to it being known.)

Lukewarm has eroded my Titus townread somewhat. I might vote her, even though I think Roden is more likely scum, because having one dominant wagon and nothing that challenges it is usually pretty bad for the gamestate.

You and I have read two very different games if you think Roden has been the only dominant wagon today, mate.

[mastina]

The fact that you, in your hypothetical, so confidently said that you would actually have valued your own life over Irchers, feels like you are adding some mental math into that hypothetical (such as knowledge of your scum PM) that your town self would not have access to to factor in OR you are just trying to make up a reason to self clear yourself.

While I don't do this by default, whenever the question comes up of how I'd act as scum when I am town, I put thought into hypothesizing what scumastina would do in the game. It's a useful exercise because it can demonstrate how scumastina is not in the game because the markers have diverged in some significant way.

Now, obviously. It ain't perfect. I'm town so I couldn't know for

sure

what scumastina would do.
But I can still make some reasonable guesses, when I put the thought into it.

I can, and have, written my "Situational Awareness" breakdowns of the entire playerlist as town before, demonstrating how scumastina would approach them in the pregame. "PlayerX will do this, the best way we have to counter this is to do A. Player Y is likely to do this, the counter should be B. Player Z is not a threat, so do C..." etc. Town-me figuring out what scum-me would do in the game in spite of it being a towngame.

And the idea of me being scum was proposed, so I thought of what I would, and wouldn't, have done as scum.
I wouldn't have bussed Ircher in the exact same way as I did in Control because I would know that Ircher was likely to go down and that people would then look to Control and finger me as scum.
I would know that Ircher is a likely elimination regardless of his alignment but as a scumbuddy that he'd be likely to take heat, and if scum didn't defend him, go down.
I would know that there aren't many players in the game who could catch scumastina and convince the town they had done so.
I would know that Ircher's role was worse than a goon, and from past experience, that Ircher wouldn't claim VT when pressured.
I would know that Ircher having fakeclaimed a confirmable role in Control would NEVER live when claiming a confirmable role this game--even with it being the truth.
I would know all of this, and come to the conclusion that bussing Ircher would give me nothing of value and that the optimal play would be to keep attention away from him. I could keep him in the peripheral. Saying that he's suspect enough but preferring the town options over him. I could push any player I wanted to, including realistic counterwagons to him. Ircher could then choose to save himself by simply stating that he didn't slip, he made an assumption for *literally any reason Ircher wanted*. This was a perfectly viable thing for him to do. The slip was NOT hard-condemning him. The slip was NOT something inescapable. The slip was NOT something which would make him guaranteed to die. The slip was NOT something he couldn't recover from.

But he deliberately chose to go down without a fight--meaning that I didn't do the above analysis and give him feedback.

[mastina]

I don't understand why Roden went silent when I jumped in for him.

Because Roden is wanting the town to eat itself up alive and wait for the wagon on him to dissipate for bullshit reasons and for a wagon on a town player to become the majority, or even better,

two

town wagons overtaking him!

Imagine how good it'd be for the scum if instead of a wagon on Roden that can't be matched, the two dominant wagons were on Titus and Something_Smart when both of them are town.

[mastina]

As far as Titus' actual posts go, they just seem overly careful? I get a sense of just being overly aware of how she's being perceived

Post 201 has a weird LAMISTy phrase in "generates wagons so not gunna fight this," and 204 "dude's not town" feels overly explainy. Like Titus doesn't want to be misconstrued as defending Ircher by accident?

Okay but CHALLENGE:

Find me a scumgame where Titus acted that way.

I'm reasonably sure it doesn't exist.

I'll be the first to admit it looks like scum.

Heck I scumread Titus for all of D1 off of

that very reasoning

. That Titus's posts were overly cautious, precise, meticulous, etc.

But when it comes down to it, those things are actually more towntells for her than they are scumtells, especially in regards to treatment of scumbuddies.

Titus as scum never goes for the wishy-washy not-really-defense of Ircher. She either doesn't defend him at all (not likely), or actually does defend him, and I mean

defend

defend. Not half-assed defense. I mean proper defense defense.

Keep in mind.
People keep saying, "Ircher was doomed."

That wasn't the case.

Ircher could have talked his way out of that elimination.

Ircher was not doomed.
Ircher was not in a position that he couldn't recover from. He could have fought his way out fairly easily,

especially

with the support of his teammates. He wasn't fucked.
He was put in a suboptimal position.
But not an irrecoverable one.

He chose not to try.

Yes, people might say "it was better for him to not try and give no info than to try, fail, and give a ton of info".
Which is true, sure.
But while true, and Ircher would think that way (he did after all not try), he can be influenced by his scumbuddies and talked into following their plans. He can be swayed, influenced, and given direction. He can be given a plan, and follow it. He didn't need to give up. He wasn't forced to give up. He wasn't in a situation where giving up was unambiguously the best play possible.

He

chose

to give up.

To give up was arguably good play, but it is not unambiguously the best play. You can fight your way out of that situation and still leave the town unable to piece together an accurate solve. You can generate a gamestate favorable to the scum by producing

too much

noise, rather than too little.

Ircher chose not to. Which meant that his scumbuddies never gave him this idea. He wasn't told to try; he was either given no instruction at all or more likely, his scumbuddies encouraged him to give up.

And that tells you who his scumbuddies aren't. Titus is not a scumbuddy because Ircher's play doesn't match a Titus scum strategy and Titus's play doesn't match Ircher being scum.

It feels more like she wants people to interact with her while drunk so she can get town credit rather than actually wanting to solve the game while drunk.

I agree with this! It was her wanting to interact with others while she was drunk!

I disagree with the conclusion!

It's not that "Titus wanted people to interact with people while she was drunk as a scum move".
It's that Titus wanted to interact with people while she was drunk, and in that state,

accidentally began to solve

.
It is specifically the

lack of intent to solve

that helps prove it was town from her.

Titus didn't aim to solve while drunk.
But she DID solve while drunk.
That is town.

[mastina]

Penguin why do you think S_S is scum

I don't really want to be too specific but it was around his mech talk about productivity and early posting today wrt productivity and PRs.

I want to reiterate that I see exactly what you do PenguinPower. I know exactly what you saw, and there is one specific scenario where you are right, because what you saw is mostly valid.

But I saw something which reversed it from hard-scum into town.

If the thing I saw that I am calling the other half which makes him town isn't actually there, then yeah he'd be hard-scum.
But that is a very specific scenario because in all other scenarios I just see him as town that is hard-spewed as such.

when her own description of Titus before this was

Titus is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does not match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

The uncertainty she presented in her own read of Titus leaves me unable to believe that me scum reading Titus is a Real Genuine corner stone of her scum reading me.

You are scumreading Titus for the very thing that is the towniest part of her iso.

No fucking shit I don't believe your scumread there is genuine?

If your reasons for being suspicious of Titus were aligned with my reasons for having previously not townbinned her, then that'd be one thing.
But the very thing that kept her out of scum for me is the thing placing her in scum for you--and that's where I call bullshit.

this post seems to ignore the reality that I don't think anyone could've prepared for Ircher's apparent scum slip and the subsequent storm that followed.

This is something that is a true fact that is misleading in an incredibly malicious way.

Yes, nobody could have prepared for the apparent scumslip and the subsequent storm which followed. That was not something scum could have planned for.

But no, the above doesn't mean that the only possible outcome of D1 was an Ircher death; the above doesn't mean it was unrecoverable. Ircher easily could have argued his way out of the slip and the scum could have chosen to shift their stances in ways that would avoid revealing themselves to be aligned with him yet which made the gamestate more favorable to Ircher.

People are making the surface-level conclusion that "Ircher scumslipped and this was popular with the town, therefore Ircher was fucked".

No scum player worth their salt is incapable of convincing players that a scumslip wasn't a scumslip. In fact, many scum players can even fake scumslips that they deliberately make specifically to argue their way out of them in a reasonable way that looks organic, generating a townread on them. No scum player of any reasonable skill sees a strong earlygame push on them and thinks "yeah we're doomed".

It was literally an RVS post that got Ircher in trouble, and he was run up during the RVS.

Tell me: how many games have an early D1 scum wagon during the RVS that dissipates soon after?

The answer is quite a lot!

How many of those wagons were popular with the town at the time?
The answer is basically all of them!

Ircher being wagoned early during the RVS and this being popular does

not

mean that Ircher was destined to die.

That is a surface-level narrative that doesn't take into account that Ircher has years of scumplay experience to know how to get out of it.

So the question isn't "how did the scum react when they realized Ircher was fucked?".
The question is, "Ircher decided to go down rather than fight out--why? What is the implication of that?"
The implication of Ircher deciding to go down rather than fight out is, among others, that Titus is town.

[mastina]

Mastina, can you elaborate on your Uncrowned and Andres reads? I feel like you keep skipping right over them

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do

lean

town there overall.

Andres had players townread him early-on, and had town vibes. It wasn't anything that I can really point to and explain, but he just looked like he was solving in a way that

could

be faked, but was PROBABLY genuine from town.

Andre is prob town.

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game. It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read.

Malakittens has kept this townread on Andres and has said it has gotten stronger and stronger with time. Malakittens insists that Andres is locktown in fact. Her townread on him is that strong. She is

sure

that Andres is town. She is certain that Andres cannot do this as scum.

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, I trust that read.
If Malakittens is town, then her read there is genuine. The question then becomes how trustworthy is her locktown of Andres, and given what she's described and her experience with him and her confidence, I am willing to bet that she is right.
If Malakittens is scum, then

theoretically

she could be hard-townbinning a scumbuddy, but in practice, she wouldn't do that and there's not really room for both Malakittens and Andres on a team anyway. Mala could be scum, but Mala and Andres can't be.

Beyond that: Andres's content has gotten townier and townier with time. Especially on D2. Posts like this demonstrate a solid thought process highly likely to be town. 1052 is dead on the point. 1060 has some good vibes too in particular,

(I didn’t find the “slip” killer, the freezing is what did Ircher in)

This is something that literally everyone pushing Titus is ignoring. The Titus-scum narrative

relies

on the logic "Ircher was caught by the slip and was fucked". Andres is one of the only players in the game to put the deeper thought needed to realize that wasn't the case, that it was Ircher's later responses which sealed his fate with what he did and didn't do.

I find the 1091 into the followthrough to be sincere. While it's

possible

to be performative or even scum thinking that asking would be scummy and then immediately retracting, the more likely option given Andres was suspicious of Vivax initially was Andres wanted to push Vivax on the details of his claim, but then realized that would be anti-town and took it back.

The towniness really begins to skyrocket in 1123 and the followthrough though. The viewpoint is sincere and thoughtful enough that I don't see it as scum. The way he worded it, the way he thought of things, the way he approached it, all felt town.

1130 is a valid criticism of Roden and good point in defense of Titus.

1169 may be easy to fake as scum but was still something I read as sincere.

Andres's interactions with Roden radiate town at every stage regardless of Roden's alignment but

especially

if Roden is scum.

And the final nail in the coffin that locks Andres as town is this post, and the immediate follow-through (and subsequent elaboration).


When it comes to Uncrowned, it's largely been a combination of Reads I Liked, insight I liked, and the general vibes Uncrowned has given off: casual chill gaming that is still contributing and pushing in a pro-town way, akin to Ydrasse (speaking of which the Uncrowned-Ydrasse interactions make me townread both halves of the engagement). How Uncrowned has interacted with Roden was incredibly important. The engagement there looks like town who doesn't know what the alignment of the person they're interacting with is. 409 gives an example of this. 469 is a good post too.

Uncrowned is also the player who has voiced suspicion on me, which I find the least likely to have ulterior motives for having done so. Less than you, less than Lukewarm, heck even less than Something_Smart. Uncrowned's engagement there looks like genuine unfamiliarity with me and trying to figure me out, rather than scum who has a good idea of what I am like.


Basically while I lack meta on both, both are

highly

likely to be town by play.
I realize it doesn't display well in iso. Isoing them doesn't reveal them to be town.
Reading the game, however, DOES.

Their townness isn't found in iso; their townness is found in reading all the posts in the game and how their content relates specifically to the gamestate at the time and showing nuances.

[mastina]

it *feels* like he is either town, or he is writing specifically for me, and I don't think that I am in a position to be catered to lol

Why not?

You are not an elimination candidate today, but are a candidate for future days.

You are a strong pusher of a mislim on Titus. In fact are the main pusher there.

You are the perfect person to cater to because it's zero risk high reward. Dannflor loses nothing by catering to you. He gains a more scum-controlled/favored gamestate almost no matter what.

[mastina]

Okay I have a new hot take:

One, but not both, of {Lukewarm, Dannflor} are scum.

They are

not

scumbuddies, but they are

not

both town.

Their interactions already have me sure that they're not partnered together but both look like scum interacting with town, if that makes sense. One of them is town being interacted with by scum; the other is scum interacting with town.

This doesn’t make sense and you should be reevaluating more if you simultaneously see us both as scum interacting with town and as not aligned

It does make sense.

I know I am wrong about my scumread on

one

of you.

But the other is definitely scum.

There's just too many players with too good reasons to be town for there to be too many town outside of those names.

And among them, there are behaviors that are highly scum-indicative.

Pushing Titus the main and most persistent counterwagon to Roden (notably, Roden has had THREE counterwagons! Vivax prior to his vig claim, Something_Smart, and Titus have ALL been attempted! Does THREE wagons countering to Roden seem like a town-driven scenario to you? It sure doesn't to me!) is among them, especially when ignoring the reasons for Titus to be town or even calling the things clearing her as being reasons for her to be scum.

Your interactions with Lukewarm aren't scum-scum, and vice-versa.

But both of you, individually, tick basically every marker for scum.

Outside of the STRONG town pool and thus being in the quite small PoE.
Pushing the exact agenda scum need to be pushing in this moment.
Ignoring facts that work against the pro-scum push that scum need to make.

Basically I know you can't both be scum, but I also know one of you

has

to be scum. Literally the one and only world it wouldn't be is if the scumteam is {Roden, fireisredsir, Malakittens I guess?}, but the fact that both of you are hard-defending a slot who cannot be town with both of you town seems to suggest that one of you is scum.

[mastina]

Do you think there might not be some value to what we have to say?

Honestly?

No.

I know that is incredibly insulting and disrespectful of players that normally are quite competent and skilled.

But at least

specific to this game

, the value of, say, "Titus is scum here" is, explicitly, not something I value.

I respect the Roden-is-town belief since even I have paranoia there.
But the replacements to Roden for wagoning? No. If there were a wagon counter to Roden that wasn't on someone I was hard-townbinning I may hold more interest in respecting those vastly different viewpoints.

But in this game specifically, I feel that my reads have

very strong reasons

to be correct.

[mastina]

Mastina I have this sinking gut feeling that you are town and that scum is currently playing around you specifically and pocketing you

Name names and I can humor you but I'm not going to respond to Titus/Vivax/Something_Smart as options.

Period.

Nor jjh, nor PenguinPower.

Name a name you think is scum playing around me/pocketing me outside of those and I will listen.

But not jjh/Vivax/Something_Smart/PenguinPower or Titus.

[mastina]

If you can't case me this game

I've been casing you the entire game.

I've not the energy to rehash tonight but suffice to say it's there in my iso aplenty.

And Vivax is right, in his as well.

And in all the players who voted you on D1 and half of those who did on D2, too. (The likes of Uncrowned in particular have cased you.)

[mastina]

Have you considered that Ausuka and Malakittens could be mafia piggybacking the Roden vote? Town driven doesn't mean all town on it

I mean, sure.

It's possible Mala's scum; VCA and NKA both have her as highly likely to fit as scum.
Her play suggests town tho so she's less likely scum than other options.

For her to be scum you also need a coherent scumteam. She's not going to bus Roden after having been off of him, so for her to be scum, Roden must be town and she would need to have two other partners.

Who fits as a Malakittens partner?

There aren't many options.


Ausuka has looked town ten times over in ten different ways and none of them feel like deepscum. All feel natural, organic, sincere, and genuine, and Ausuka's content has felt like it has consistently been an attempt to further the wincon. I admit lack of familiarity with Ausuka so I don't know what Ausuka is capable of as scum, but if Ausuka were scum I would sincerely be incredibly impressed--this would genuinely be a Don Coralone level of performance imo in how well Ausuka has played.

Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.

I sincerely doubt that peta's read was as strong as you are implying it was. In fact, I'm reading petapan's iso from the bottom. There's only one mention of Titus (which is explicitly referring to pre-439 content) after this:

while most of my reads are weak vibes

So every suspicion peta had on Titus was BEFORE this post, and thus, per petapan, explicitly "weak vibes".

Did petapan state suspicion on Titus? Yes. But you are presenting the false narrative that his scumread there was strong. It is quite likely petapan's scumread was in fact quite weak. From what I know about petapan, he's more likely to have reads be weaker than what he says rather than stronger than what he says. Meaning that his Titus push is more likely to have been weaker than what he said rather than stronger. At many points peta said it was early. He even said his readslist was a vibelist not a readslist.

For someone who claims to have taken a look at peta's reads, you sure seem to have glossed over that peta's reads were not nearly as strong as you are implying they were!

(This is not all I am going to be quoting for the Lukewarm post but this part felt like it was important enough to stand out:

Lukewarm claims to have read petapan's iso but is lying about petapan's strength of read on Titus.

[mastina]

I got the feeling that she came up with the idea that she needed to push me, and then started trying to come up with reasons.

What in the gamestate meant Titus needed to push you?

Last I checked, Roden has consistently been near elimination, and you have consistently had 0-1 votes on you. Titus has never had more votes than Roden. She's been close, but never surpassed.

IF Titus were scum, she would know that Roden would flip town--and IF Roden flipped town, a push on you would be much harder for her to make due to you having increased credibility from it. Titus would know that pushing you wouldn't work. (Inevitably you'll bring up the difference between my stance describing you now versus 2007 but I'll nip that in the bud by stating it's a difference in perspective between Titus's view and Dannflor's view. How Titus views you differs from how Dannflor views you. Dannflor's view is the 2007 post, Titus's is this one.)

She wouldn't be able to get an elimination there. You could argue she's setting up an attempt to discredit you, but guess what? You're not going to convince me

Titus

is doing that when that's exactly what you've been doing to me. It'd literally be projection of you accusing Titus of doing the thing you are guilty of.

I realize Titus tends to think long-term, but it is specifically her thinking long-term which means her attacking of you makes her town. If she were scum, she'd know Roden would flip town and invalidate her stated world view. That would weaken her position and give her no leverage compared to you. She wouldn't be able to win a fight with you. The easier solution for her would be to just nightkill you, since Vivax has stated he won't be firing tonight.

Her narrative would, with a Roden townflip, require an entire revision. She would need to either discard all her reads (thus meaning she doesn't push you) or invent entirely new reasons for them (thus meaning she needs to bullshit extra reasons). In either case, it doesn't fit with a scum plan. It doesn't fit with a scum agenda.

Titus has no need to push you today as scum--but she also has no need to set you up for a push on future days, because of her stated world view and what a Roden townflip would do in regards to your/her stances.

You are trying to have it both ways. You earlier argued that this whole thing looked like her scum game, EXCEPT for her Ircher interaction.

I may have slightly misspoken if I said "looked like her scumgame". It'd be more accurate to say "looks like scum".

Her D1 posts look like scum. "overly careful, a sense of just being overly aware of how she's being perceived" looks like scum, but on reflection I don't think a scum-Titus actually looks that way. It's a thing that looks like scum but I don't think in hindsight actually IS scum. Even if it WERE something that

could

be scum, the important part:

especially in regards to treatment of scumbuddies.

Titus's treatment of scumbuddies is never "overly careful, overly aware of how she's being perceived".

my own position is that that Titus looks to me like she was trying to save him, all the way up til he hit E-1 and more people were voicing willingness to vote there.

If Titus were trying to save Ircher, her vote wouldn't be on Ircher.

Period.

So your stance is, explicitly, not one which can work with mine because my stance is that the vote explicitly is evidence she wasn't trying to save Ircher.

Because it feels like I have little thread control.

If it feels like you have very little thread control, why do you think Titus needs to push you???

I've explained my stance on the difference between Titus/Dannflor; your turn.

[mastina]

To actually get to him being mechanically town, you have to stop and think about the more specific details of the numbers. And not just the % points needed to direct the kills, but also the % points needed by the flipped townies. And while I saw those numbers when I looked at the flips, I did not do any of the mental math on what that would mean for the over all % points.

Okay Lukewarm, question:
What made you do the numbers with Ircher, but not do the numbers for Vivax?

[mastina]

firing

Roden [8]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower

not voting [2]:

jjh927, Something_Smart

For the record, this basically clears Something_Smart of being scum.

I'm not honestly sure beyond that but you have to realize that you are getting a bunch of passive support from people who aren't really chasing their own directions at all.

This sounds reasonable until you realize that literally the only read those who support me on Roden have in common with me is Roden.

Everyone on the Roden wagon doesn't agree with me on the likes of you, Lukewarm, fire, etc. They mostly all have their own scumreads beyond that. Yes, they are not chasing those other reads. But town has strong incentive to not chase their other reads. If your point is that they have reads that are the same as mine, that's not the case; if your point is that they are not pursuing their other reads, then that isn't remotely scum-indicative and is actually town-indicative.

Town voting Roden are incentivized to

not

push elsewhere, because if they believe Roden is scum enough to vote him, pressing their other scumreads is likely to cause the Roden wagon to dissipate.

And we all mostly town read each other.

Guess what scum need to do with a scum elimination D1.

Generally, it's not that likely for scum to stick together in a block like that.

Generally, there isn't a scum elimination on D1 that is followed by a scum wagon on D2.

There being a scum elimination on D1 into a scum wagon on D2 has a funny way of making things diverge from the general case.

Klick is right on you btw; while 2053 is far townier, I see why Klick thinks it's suspect. You're townier now than you were because this is a more reasonable post--but it is still factually wrong, in a way that

could

be town but also could be scum.

[mastina]

assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with at least one another living player, via private topics or otherwise. you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.

night abilities:

jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%; +10% for each additional usage]

- furthermore, you will gain a private topic with that player: it will open at the end of the night, and stay open until the start of the following night.

MOD DATISI:

Say BBT had neighborized PlayerA N1. That topic would be open D2, and close N2.

PlayerA has no other private topics beyond the one formed on D2.
Both PlayerA and BBT live.

Would petapan see PlayerA as having a private topic?

[mastina]

Also, just from a game state perspective, the reason I haven’t been all that keen of moving away from Roden, is that I would naturally expect there to be a lot of resistance to the execution of a player if the Town were roughly moving in the right direction. And you can’t tell me that more than a few alternatives have not been offered to stop Roden from getting executed (Titus, Something_Smart, mastina, to name a few). This is purely circumstantial obviously, and it can be interpreted various different ways (a lot of Scum together pushing the wagon of a Town player stubbornly wouldn’t look that much different to this, except I don’t SR Klick, I think Ydrasse is Town, and I doubt Malakittens is insisting on me being Town just to pocket me).

This.

If Roden is Town, why have there been so many attempted counterwagons to him?

Vivax was a counterwagon shut down ONLY by Vivax's vig claim. He got like five votes prior to it.
Something_Smart was a counterwagon.
Titus was a counterwagon.

Which is, statistically, more likely?

The town collectively has resisted a wagon on town that has scum on it, and has tried multiple times to get counterwagons going...
...Or that the town collectively is voting together on a wagon that doesn't have scum, and the scum have tried multiple times to get counterwagons going?

If Roden were town, then the wagon on him would have gone through by now.
If Roden is scum, then it makes sense for the wagon to have not gone through--scum are desperate to save him so won't vote him, and there are enough town players paranoid of the wagon, doubting the wagon, etc. to not push it through.

If Roden were town, then the scum would need to all be on the wagon already for it to have not gone through, and even then, it

still

would be likely to have gone through. Vivax could have hammered. Something_Smart could have hammered. jjh could have hammered. furtive could have hammered. Ausuka could have hammered.

How many different counterwagons to Roden will it take for people to realize Roden is scum?
How many different iterations of the Roden wagon will it take for people to realize Roden is not town?
How many times will a lack of Roden being hammered reveal that Roden wasn't going to be hammered by scum and that therefore the only options are Roden-scum or all remaining scum on Roden?

[mastina]

Like Klick just seems to be in lockstep with you without any real unique pushes or thoughts of his own.

I think if Dannflor had any genuine interest in sorting me and thought this, the town next step would be asking any questions about any of my reads
Instead, he's starting with a conclusion and saying this with intent to sound persuasive instead of to solve
Because he doesn't need to actually solve for me
Because he's scum

^This is a genuine thought regardless of Dannflor's alignment. It is a good one. May or may not be accurate, but it is a good thought that comes from town.

So Klick can't be scum voting.

I am not scum voting.

Andres has shown incredible nuance in thought that strongly indicates him not being scum. I've explained this read in fairly strong detail, but Andres cannot be scum here.

PenguinPower is town for a bunch of reasons.

I've explained my Uncrowned townread and it is basically due to Uncrowned having highly unique of a perspective that I don't see as scum, for instance the progression on me.

Who's possible scum then on Roden?

Malakittens, Titus, and Ydrasse.

Unless you think that's the scumteam, that means scum off of the Roden wagon.
If scum is off of the Roden wagon, why is Roden still alive?
ESPECIALLY if Titus the main counterwagon right now is scum???

Why would scum off of the wagon not hammer Roden, here?

Hoping the town does it for them? Risk losing Titus??? Titus has gotten five to six votes with some not voting Titus saying they would. Half the Roden voters have said they'd vote Titus. So the Roden wagon could dissolve and the Titus wagon go through. Why risk that as scum? Why risk the scum losing a second member when you can guarantee a town elimination?

It's just far more likely that scum have a vested interest in not eliminating Roden.

[mastina]

Wouldn't be surprised if Klick's were the best reads in the game tbf

Klick is voting Roden and has the main defenders of Roden as in his nulls or scum.

What do you think that says about Roden's alignment, then?

[mastina]

I have mentioned a few times that I felt like his interaction with Ausuka reeked of tvt to me.

Funny, those interactions are part of why I think Roden is scum!

I also feel like the level of obstinance Roden had with claiming his role is more likely to be town then scum.

And I believe it is scum that doesn't know how to make a town roleclaim.

Roden is scum who still doesn't know why his claim isn't a town one. There's one very specific thing I am going for with this and it remains true. Roden is scum by play, by circumstances, by what the town/scum roles are likely to be, AND by claim.

[mastina]

mastina

I'm interested in hearing if you have any thoughts about 2092

I do. Roden's play is basically a grand AtE here.

There are questions that I realize people have about his play.
"Why did he claim"
"Why was he so stubborn"
etc.

I admit, I don't have the answer to all of those.

You're never going to have an answer for every aspect of a read on a slot. No slot is 100% scum in literally every way shape and form with literally nothing town about them at all. (Altho obviously I like to say that. It's never actually true, but it makes a nice statement of a slot that is 99% scum.)

But the simple fact is Roden did those things as scum.

He is not town. He has slipped being scum in ways he doesn't even know.

I thought jjh knew when jjh asked about the percentage, but apparently jjh didn't see what I saw in regards to Roden's percentage claim. And what *I* saw hard-spews Roden as scum. That, aside from how his role is going to be a scum role in this game. His role isn't town here.

His play fits as scum for all of D1.
His play fits as scum in almost every way.
But he is still mechanically scum. For percentage-based reasons.

[mastina]

I also feel like it is good design to make peta's traffic analyst have a false guilty, so that it is not just a cop.

Roden's role is real, but it ain't town.

You've proven that Roden's role is real, but Roden's role being real was never the question. Roden's role is, explicitly, real.

It is also, explicitly, a scum role this game. For reasons the scumteam has no clue about, but which would be obvious with a massclaim.

If you were modding a 21 player and you gave Mafia 4 players (not confirmed), would you give 2 Mafia useless abilities?

As a matter of fact, yes!

I'm not going to out the why, but I'll say this:

The scum are

not

going to have any strong scum roles: Ninja, Strongman, Roleblocker, Rolecop, etc.
100% guaranteed they have NOTHING considered a strong scum role.

I'm not explaining this but I guarantee it's true.

[mastina]

Roden is town regardless but the mechanical reasoning on this page is pretty poor. Roden being town is very much in spite of the mechanical reasons for him not to be

Roden still fucked up his claim in a way that I thought for sure you saw but which apparently you didn't. In regards to the percentages.

His role is also not a town one because of what the town/scum roles are.

[mastina]

Peta consistently called Titus scum.

Sure did!

But you're lying about the strength.

Two can play the iso game.

(i mean i kkkkkkiiiiiind ooofffff think vivax posts like he knows ircher's alignment but i'm not gonna harp on it right now)

This is how peta was expressing another of his scumreads, on Vivax. Does this radiate confidence? No, it doesn't.

isn't bad vibes just scumreads

i'm playing semantics but my intention wit using "vibes" rather than "reads" was to emphasize that these are mostly loose instinctual feelings

rather than reasoned conclusions i feel strongly about

because hey it's really early

Here he literally says it.
"It's really early"
"These are mostly loose instinctual feelings"
He literally says "rather than conclusions I feel strongly about".
THAT ITSELF SAYS HE WASN'T CONFIDENT.

You're presenting the narrative that peta was hard-pushing Titus as a strong scumread. But that's a lie. He wasn't.

hey it's a vibes list not a reads list

And it's here, too.

going full blown scumcase this early often just means conf biasing yourself. wanted to play it low key and let thins flow naturally rather than trying to wrestle the thread over a gutread, yknow?

He literally says here that he doesn't want to confbias Titus and that the read is gut.

while most of my reads are weak vibes i'd already bet the game on penguin being town

And here he explicitly says most of his reads are "weak vibes".

Presenting the narrative that petapan was hard-scumreading Titus is disingenuous-as-fuck.

I read Roden’s ISO - I had forgotten just how horrific their D1 was. Also, their posting is too focused on self-preservation over trying to solve the game. Yeah they had some comments as prompted by me about Uncrowned, but outside of pushing what, mastina, is there a coherent push in there? I don’t remember one. Like they get upset at Ausuka for voting them and not really speaking about them before, and they make a point of saying that Vivax v. Lukewarm is TvT in 1228, but they really seem for the most part to be fighting the reasons people are expressing for SR’ing them or getting upset about questions about their role. I just don’t see a whole lot of actual curiosity about other people’s alignments. It could just be that they’re demoralized, but it’s been a very consistent apathy.

This but even the "could be demoralized" isn't town--in fact it's indicative of scum.

[mastina]

I find speculating about specific reads from dead people being why they were killed to be incredibly unscientific and really not worth time at all

How about lying about the certainty of those dead players on their reads?

That seems more noteworthy to me.

petapan's lack of certainty on Titus doesn't show with a control-f of 'titus' in his iso. You can't find the lack of certainty by searching his iso for Titus.

Yet if you actually bother to read even a fraction of his iso, it becomes clear he wasn't strongly pushing Titus; pretending he was is disingenuous as fuck.

It was super-earlygame. petapan knew it. His reads weren't well-developed. He said as much. He thought Titus was suspect, sure--but suspect for the early game, without having had the time to refine that read. He was killed before he could engage with Titus. But the chances are quite high that he would've engaged with Titus today, explored her stances, prodded her, interacted with her, and come to a different conclusion.

Maybe

he doubles-down on Titus town. MAYBE. But saying he

definitely

was going to strongly push Titus is simply not true.

[mastina]

The recent stuff was Mastina trying to call me a liar, and me responding.

Because you did lie.

You lied in your narrative of peta's read on Titus, portraying it as something it wasn't.

It is factually true that peta expressed a scumread on Titus.

It is not factually true and is in fact factually false that peta was strongly scumreading Titus--explicitly, he wasn't. It was too early in the game. He said as much repeatedly. That his read was more of a vibe than a read.

[mastina]

Mastina 100% understands why I would be demoralized because she has straight explained and defended me when I've gotten like this before when we were both town in GnG

The difference there was that you were actually town by play and your claim actually made perfect sense as town.

Here neither is the case because neither is true.

[mastina]

Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:

I am setting my productivity to 0% today.

You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.

Full transparency, part 2/3:

I am setting my productivity to 50% today.
On D3, I will be setting my productivity to 75%.
On D4, I will go to 100% and fully explain why I have done what I am doing.

I have a plan. I legit think that I can break the game with this and I promise that I will explain everything on D4 and explain why I have done what I am doing.

It'll all make sense then, and the scum won't know what hit them.

Remember when I said that there would be a big huge reveal on D4?

...I lied.

PARTIAL CLAIM: I am an investigative role and I have a result indicating fireisredsir is scum.

VOTE: fireisredsir

I'm not claiming what the result is until

after

fireisredsir claims here.

I'll be fullclaiming once fire has been locked into a claim.

[mastina]

Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:

I am setting my productivity to 0% today.

You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.

Full transparency, part 2/3:

I am setting my productivity to 50% today.
On D3, I will be setting my productivity to 75%.
On D4, I will go to 100% and fully explain why I have done what I am doing.

I have a plan. I legit think that I can break the game with this and I promise that I will explain everything on D4 and explain why I have done what I am doing.

It'll all make sense then, and the scum won't know what hit them.

Remember when I said that there would be a big huge reveal on D4?

...I lied.

PARTIAL CLAIM: I am an investigative role and I have a result indicating fireisredsir is scum.

VOTE: fireisredsir

I'm not claiming what the result is until

after

fireisredsir claims here.

I'll be fullclaiming once fire has been locked into a claim.

In the mean time, I know there will be questions about why I targeted fireisredsir, but I made up my mind for that target pretty early into D2.

As for the why I did this, I knew I wasn't going to be roleblocked or killed N2 by claiming my big reveal was on D4. To be honest, this was one of the reasons I was driving so hard the Roden wagon--I wanted to use my role and really wanted that result on fire, because I felt Roden flip + fire investigation = HUGE info on the gamestate.

I decided on fire early on D2, decided to commit to that, didn't want Titus because nobody would trust me on that result, didn't want Lukewarm/Dannflor because if they are town they're likely to die in spite of my scumreads on them, and fireisredsir I had reason to want to investigate since early into D2.

[mastina]

My second thought was he dropped down to 50% to try and stop the bonus kill. Have not looked at any numbers to see if it would make sense for them to get a bonus kill if he was running at 50%

I mean I was running at 50% yesterday, so keep that in the mind.

[mastina]

We should wait to see if mastina confirms before we do anything.

Well I ain't in a masonry I'll say that much.

I'm catching up to see if fire has claimed yet.

[mastina]

@mastina did you get added to a PT by Titus y/n

Nope!

[mastina]

Also claim your damn flavor

Not until after I see fireisredsir fullclaim.

[mastina]

MASTINA ARE YOU IN A HOOD WITH TITUS

Nope!

So you're claiming a guilty on fire mastina?

Yup!

[mastina]

LOL no you don't, hard counterclaim

im a reddit moderator, i can check if someone carried out a night action. i used it on mastina both nights and both nights she did not carry out an action. i just triple checked my results to make sure

25% + 5% each use

VOTE: mastina

Alright so fullclaim:
I'm a inspection company CEO's nibling, and a

1-shot Cop

.
The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

I see if someone's aligned with

the inspectors

.

Last night, I targeted fireisredsir, but my N2 Cop Result was

My Action Failed; I got not result

.

Keep in mind:
We have a dead town jailkeeper and a dead town doctor--the town isn't going to have much in the realm of killstop power.
I said that I was going to do a big reveal on D4, not D3, so scum had no reason to roleblock me last night.

I

should

have gotten either a hard innocent or hard guilty--but my action failed. It shouldn't be a town killstop power and scum had no reason to roleblock me.

Ergo, the result indicated to me that fireisredsir had some form of protection his town self shouldn't have. A rolestopper on him, or more likely, an unclaimed ascetic.

Which is why the result was still damning. If he had claimed commuter or ascetic then it'd have been a travesty of town errors, but with him claiming to have tracked me two nights in a row when he explicitly had no reason to do so and not seen me visit either night means he is highly likely to be bullshitting here.

[mastina]

My second thought was he dropped down to 50% to try and stop the bonus kill. Have not looked at any numbers to see if it would make sense for them to get a bonus kill if he was running at 50%

I mean I was running at 50% yesterday, so keep that in the mind.

Didn't you claim you were using 100%?

I ran 0% on D1 to bank 100%, and 50% yesterday to bank 50%.

I could've done 25% on both days, but I figured that 100% into 50% made for a better support of the D4 reveal lie that I was planning. (From the moment I understood the mechanic, I put the "claim that I'll claim on D4" plan into place, but I DO have some--very subtle--crumbs in my iso which tell you that the true reveal was on D3.)

[mastina]

but she's claiming an investigative result and she is literally lying bc i checked her both nights and she hasn't done anything

To what do I owe the pleasure of being visited two nights in a row when I said on D1 that the reveal would be on D4? When I said on D2 that I'd go 50% on D2 and 75% on D3 and 100% on D4? (Obv was a lie, will be at 100% now and every day future since I already fired my shot.)

Could it perhaps be that you knew that I couldn't have a result on you because of factional knowledge?

I don't believe there's more town killstopping power, or if there is, that they just so

happened

to have targeted me last night.

And scum aren't going to have an ungated roleblocker.

So a lack of result on you is still effectively a guilty, because

something caused my action to fail

, and that something is almost certainly scum-related.

Like, say, a scum rolestopper rolestopping fireisredsir.

[mastina]

isn't mastina's like whole thing that she hates lying about claims

As scum!

I lie my ass off all the time as town.

Oh boy so Mastina's guilty on Fire is explained by Mastina being roleblocked and Fire's guilty on Mastina is explained by Mastina being roleblocked

Yes, but fire's claim seems awfully like he knew I couldn't have a role result on him and that he is making up a roleclaim to justify that--why target me twice especially when I didn't visit N1? When I said the reveal would be on D4? I made it clear I wasn't acting until N3-at-earliest, and the proof that I wasn't acting would be found in a genuine N1 result on me.

Why would fireisredsir target me two nights in a row, when I was proven to have not acted N1 and had publicly stated my reveal was on D4?

It doesn't track. If fire thought I was scum lying, then there would've been proof I wasn't acting from N1.

Why would Fire see me not act N1 and think I would act N2?

What would make fire decide to target me twice when I said D4?

[mastina]

But mastina just walked that back

I didn't walk it back--the result indicating a guilty is still indicating a guilty.

I had no reason to be roleblocked last night.

But my action failed.

So something caused it to be blocked, when I had no reason to be roleblocked.

Ergo, something made fireisredsir be immune to my investigation.

And fireisredsir's claim supports that he knew he was immune to actions last night, because

a town fireisredsir has no reason to target me two nights in a row with a no-visit result N1

.

[mastina]

you were the only one telegraphing a strong role

This is not a town mindset btw.

I promise that by D4, you'll know why.

Especially since my

very first post

said

by Day Four

. (Btw that wording is one of the true 'crumbs. I didn't say ON D4, I said BY D4, and D3 is by D4. )

[mastina]

scum had no reason to roleblock me

who would you have expected them to roleblock?

You, jjh, PenguinPower, or Vivax.
Maybe {Titus, Lukewarm, Dannflor} if not killing them.

But they had no reason to block me.

I had claimed the reveal would be on D4, not D3.

I was under fairly wide suspicion.

Roden, my HARD push, flipped town.

I had my credibility

destroyed

by that flip--with people quite suspicious of me.

Why would the scum roleblock me?

They wouldn't.

Ergo, the scum likely have either an ascetic/commuter (fireisredsir) or a rolestopper (who targeted fireisredsir to protect fire from the chance Vivax would vig there).

And in either case, the No Result is still a guilty. It's not as

hard

of a guilty as the actual result would be, but it's

still

a guilty. It's akin to a Loyal role receiving a No Result--not as hard of a guilty, but still a guilty because scum had no reason to roleblock me.

[mastina]

Hm that’s not a guilty

It is still a guilty.

With scum having no reason to waste an assuredly-limited roleblocker on me, and town having two dead killstoppers meaning it's unlikely there was a town roleblocker roleblocking me, there should be no reason for me to have received a No Result.

But I did--something caused my action to fail, when there was no reason for it to have failed.

Ergo, fireisredsir was immune when he had no reason to be.
Which is a guilty.

[mastina]

btw reminder that mastina said she 100% guarantees scum has no roleblockers or anything powerful when now that she's fullclaimed it's clear that she had zero reason to believe that
explain why you said that?

Because it's a 1-shot cop, and setup mechanics require scum have no typical strong scum roles.

In the natural balance of the game, the game is scumsided. In mountainous, the game is scumsided.
The scum have the potential to make multiple kills on top of that.

The town have all their roles have heavy use requirements, and most of them are quite gated with most of them situational in power.

The town is balanced to an effectively-all-vanilla scumteam. The town is too weak to have the scum have anything ungated like a full roleblocker, full rolecop, etc. So anything they have is going to be incredibly gated--a 1x roleblocker, or a role that isn't able to

directly

mess with the town's strength but can do so indirectly--ascetic, commuter, or rolestopper. (Keep in mind a scum rolestopper is significantly weaker than a town rolestopper, the same way a town roleblocker is significantly weaker than a scum roleblocker.)

[mastina]

you can explain it now!

Just did!

Game mechanics require that the scum's roles don't have strong answers to the town's roles.

The town's roles are already punished by the percentage mechanic.

ON TOP OF THE PUNISHMENT OF THE PERCENTAGE MECHANIC, most roles also have additional gates to them. I literally only had the one shot, and that was it. It took 150% to get a single-use role off.

If the scum had a method of countering all the town power ON TOP OF them having access to extra kills when town players use their roles ON TOP OF the town having their roles be heavily gated, the game would be HEAVILY scumsided because it'd be worse balance-wise than mountainous would be. Punishing town for using their roles at all, and nullifying their attempts to have used them.

[mastina]

mastina is the one who altered her claim after hearing my results

I made no alterations.

I have the 'crumbs to prove my action is what I claim it is.

I claimed I had a result indicating you were scum.

That's exactly what the No Result was.

At one point, I almost literally gave away that I was going to cop you on N2.

[mastina]

I'll figure it out then ideally when cross-referenced with fireisredsir.)

Here's where I almost gave it away.

How was I going to cross-reference with fireisredsir?

Why, by copping him, of course!

[mastina]

I'll figure it out then ideally when cross-referenced with fireisredsir.)

Here's where I almost gave it away.

How was I going to cross-reference with fireisredsir?

Why, by copping him, of course!

^Proof I'm not lying about my claim btw.

[mastina]

Fire, did you expect town-mastina to take an action N1 and/or N2? Also, did you soft your N1 result anywhere?

This is why fire is scum with that claim.

If fire thought I was scum, then the lack of N1 acting on my part would mean fire had reason to not track me again N2;
If fire thought I was town, then seeing me not act N1 and seeing me claim I would reveal on D4 means that fire had no reason to believe I would act N2.

The claim is explicitly one that doesn't fit from a fire-town viewpoint but fits from a scum viewpoint that

knows

I am claiming an action which they would know was impossible.

[mastina]

i suspected that most likely based on your claim, if it was true and you were town, you wouldn't act n1, and would act either n2 or n3, or both. so i checked n1 -- because if you had acted n1, and then later claimed that you hadn't, that means you're scum who actually had a different role, or you were carrying out the kill

so the n1 result checked out, but i still didn't really trust you on play, and so i decided it was worth checking again n2 due to the possibility that you would reveal d3

Again, this is not a town mindset to have.

It's literally fire revealing he's scum.

[mastina]

And scum aren't going to have an ungated roleblocker.

Hey mastina, if you want us to adjust our takes based on this claim, I think its time for you to explain the claim.

Basic setup design.

The game's scumsided as mountainous; the town needs PRs to make the game be balanced.

But the game mechanics in this game punish the town for using their power roles via the extra kills. This means that the scum are given an advantage for the town PRs.

On top of the town PRs being punished by extra scum kills for using their PRs, the town PRs are all gated in ways that weaken them further. I'm not an ungated cop gated only by percentage; I'm a ONE SHOT COP that the SOONEST I could fire was N2. In terms of a Normal, do you think "Novice 1-shot Cop" is worth a scumteam being given an ungated roleblocker?

Fuck no, that doesn't track.

Ergo, the scum's roles MUST by necessity not be strongly and directly hindering to the town's roles, which are all gated, and all punished via extra scum kills. Because if the scum had strong role answers to the town's roles that are already punished by the extra kills for using their role and gated heavily, the game would be unacceptably scumsided because it'd be worse than mountainous (itself scumsided) for the town.

[mastina]

also i guess i should say that i don't really trust mastina at all, not super interested in sheeping reads there

ig the main reason i don't want to vote there is bc of mastina, but maybe that's dumb, idk

is this really a post made by someone who just got a result indicating mastina is more likely to be telling the truth?

Nope!

Fire is lying his ass off.

[mastina]

I made it clear I wasn't acting until N3-at-earliest, and the proof that I wasn't acting would be found in a genuine N1 result on me.

and i wanted to see if that was the case or not? who else do you think i should have checked?

A tracker can catch scum killing this game.

BIG time--scum can potentially be killing, what, 4 players per night?

Why would a town tracker be interested in checking for PRs, rather than trying to catch the scum kill when the scum have multikills???

[mastina]

Mastina, why have you not reached the conclusion that Fire could just be a roleblocker yet

I mean possible but unlikely; scum would have reason to believe they'd be wasting their roleblock on me.

[mastina]

that seemed like easily the most useful place to use my role

Sure!

As a scum tracker!

It makes sense "you made an elaborate claim that seemed to indicate you had significant power. you made it very clear that you would be revealing your role by d4" would be worth tracking

as a scum tracker

.

But you know what a town tracker would want to do with their role?

TRACK THE SCUM WHO HAVE MULTIKILLS.

[mastina]

what i miss about multitasking
isn’t it just one mafia shoot gun many times

which ever mafia goes pew pew, cannot do any other action.
no multitasking except multi blasting

And you think a town tracker wouldn't try to catch the scum going pew pew multiblasting?

[mastina]

The town is balanced to an effectively-all-vanilla scumteam. The town is too weak to have the scum have anything ungated like a full roleblocker, full rolecop, etc. So anything they have is going to be incredibly gated--a 1x roleblocker, or a role that isn't able to directly mess with the town's strength but can do so indirectly--ascetic, commuter, or rolestopper. (Keep in mind a scum rolestopper is significantly weaker than a town rolestopper, the same way a town roleblocker is significantly weaker than a scum roleblocker.)

how do you know how much total power town has?

You said it yourself; the balance is likely 2:1 or so PR:vanilla.

But every one of those non-vanilla roles is heavily gated NOT ONLY by percentages punishing them from extensive use, NOT ONLY by stronger roles having high percentages that in many cases stack after each use (meaning each role is, effectively, likely 1x), but ALSO by them having gates ON TOP OF those punishing percentage mechanics making each role likely to fire only once and giving scum extra kills.

Ergo, the scum roles MUST all be fairly weak. No ungated rolecop, no ungated roleblocker, etc.
A scum rolestopper fits; a scum ascetic fits. If so they would be the only strong scum PR.

Setup spec supports a scumteam of:
{Ircher as a looks-town role, Rolestopper/Ascetic for defense, Tracker for investigating, probably-goon to do kills}.

Tell me that doesn't sound like a probable setup to you.

[mastina]

If you're so sure you didn't get roleblocked then why didn't fire just claim the ascetic or whatever you think it is that caused the no result
If it's a role that passively causes no results in that way then fire would have had no reason to fear a guilty because it would have been impossible

An unclaimed town ascetic claiming only after being investigated on D3?

How well do you think that'd work out for fire?

It's either scum ascetic tracker or scum tracker with a scumbuddy rolestopper on him.

[mastina]

Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).

For the exact same reason I know jjh is town and knew Ircher was scum and know Roden is scum.

So, yes, it is a form of TMI, but in this case originating from town. The town who have paid attention that are in the know, are in the know and basically are a gigantic masonry as far as I'm concerned. {Vivax, jjh, Something_Smart, PenguinPower} is a pool which never contains scum if I'm right, here.

jjh probably knows what I know. He may or may not agree, mind you, but he probably sees what I am seeing at least.

You and PenguinPower, if I am right, might be able to figure it out, too. But obviously, the less said, the better, because I don't want to give anything away which would let scum infiltrate the holy masonry.

mastina can you explain this yet? especially since you were wrong about Roden

Oh do you really want me to?

If you insist.

You're scum or a PR, period.

There's no way you're a VT in this game and if you claim VT I'm instavoting you.

[mastina]

is there any reason this wouldn't make sense mastina?

Yeah; the OP tells you how scum roles work. Scum don't have productivity at all. It's only town.

Ircher's flip also shows that.

[mastina]

Mastina, why have you not reached the conclusion that Fire could just be a roleblocker yet

I mean possible but unlikely; scum would have reason to believe they'd be wasting their roleblock on me.

Then how do you explain the no result? If Fire had a role that would cause your action to fail, he would not have needed to worry about your 'guilty' whatsoever

Yes he would because an unclaimed ascetic on D3 after an unspecified guilty result = not going to work.

What if I had claimed Loyal (literally any role that gets results)? Loyal (any role acting) would fail, and get a guilty. Ergo, he couldn't claim ascetic and have it be believed because it would be tailoring the claim to fit mine conveniently.

[mastina]

Like, from your POV right now, is Fire a mafia ascetic tracker? You're making multiple leaps of logic at the same time and I don't think you can feasibly jump that far

That or a mafia tracker with a separate scum rolestopper.

[mastina]

(You are free to not answer if you think the answer is detrimental to the town.)

[mastina]

(I'm literally an hour and half late for leaving for work so gotta go.)

[mastina]

Work phoneposting, but:
1: can't keep up with thread from work, so no further commentary now.

I realized that I rushed some things eg fire claim not acknowledged, but I promise that when I am not 2 hours late for work, I'll be able to talk more about everything.

2: I realize that I didn't comment on Titus's claim. It's due to the above, I was rushing to not be 2 hours late for work, but it radiates being a scumclaim in 10 different ways. I can explain why it's such a suspect claim when back, but it has to do with her role vs. Mine, and her claimed format, how it works, etc.
Does that make her scum?
Well, probably, yeah.
I'm voting fire because fire is scum with just as much certainty if not more, and I want to make that clear as A statement, but I hold no delusions here; I'm fully aware that the Elim today is Titus, and I agree with it due to how scum her claim is. Is her role actually scum, fucked if I know, but her claim is scum regardless of whether her alignment is, if that makes sense.

3: I need to go through the day again and give non-fire-centric thoughts, off of changed information.

For instance, Ydrasse locktownned, jjh locktownned, PP locktownned, and the big one: Lukewarm locktownned, among others.

Another biggie:
Obviously, Klick and Dann aren't scum together.
But both individually are ambivalent to me: having reasons to be town, but also, reasons to be scum. They COULD be TvT, but aren't sVs, and still have a decent chance of having scum.

Klick is potentially scum for some things yet town for others, Dann is potentially scum by play but might have townslipped yet the townslip is fakeable.

[mastina]

Oh forgot to mention, Fire claim still scum regardless of tracker or tracker type action as it fulfills the same role on a scumteam: weak investigative role which doesn’t give too much info, is still useful to the scum, yet works as plausibly town.

[mastina]

Oh forgot to mention, Fire claim still scum regardless of tracker or tracker type action as it fulfills the same role on a scumteam: weak investigative role which doesn’t give too much info, is still useful to the scum, yet works as plausibly town.

Also on that note, guaranteed scum in Titus/fire and pikely both, for one reason:

How many investigative roles do you think we have?

We've got the dead, me, Ydrasse, Titus, and fire all as having investigative actions.

[mastina]

Oh forgot to mention, Fire claim still scum regardless of tracker or tracker type action as it fulfills the same role on a scumteam: weak investigative role which doesn’t give too much info, is still useful to the scum, yet works as plausibly town.

Also on that note, guaranteed scum in Titus/fire and pikely both, for one reason:

How many investigative roles do you think we have?

We've got the dead, me, Ydrasse, Titus, and fire all as having investigative actions.

Also Also, if scum had a roleblocker, why would they block me and kill Vivax, rather than just block Vivax?

Yes, I get it, Vivax proven vig and townread and was wildcard. But part of that wildcard status was that he could shoot N2.

Why block me when blocking Vivax was safer?

The best answers I have are that they had protection against Vivax (rolestopper--which could in fact mean that I double failed, checking their roles topped scumbuddy while also being roleblocked), or that they DID block Vivax, or that they didn't have a roleblocker.

Roleblocking me and leaving the wildcard vig free to potentially shoot is suboptimal.

[mastina]

public info about the setup

1. the basics:

~ the town faction is named

café's employees

. the mafia faction is named

the inspectors

.
~ closed setup.
~ while the setup does not meet normal guidelines, it is non-bastard, and none of the roles are overly complex.
~ players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
~ non-town power roles function as normal.
~ using town power roles requires

productivity percentage points

; see below.

2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.

3. the average of town's productivity:

~ at the end of each day, the arithmetic average of all townies' productivity that day is calculated.
~ if the average is 75% or higher, nothing happens.
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.
~ it is

not

publicly revealed what the town's average productivity is, or how many extra kills the mafia has that night.
~ the mafia will only know how many extra nightkills they have, if any; they will not be informed what the town's average productivity was.

4. sample town vanilla and town power role role pm:

Spoiler:

vanilla waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are a

vanilla waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

this job sucks, but it beats being homeless.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

n/a

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are an

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

solving world hunger? achieving world peace? but Datisi's café needs you!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

informed [cost: 69%]

- during the night, activate this power. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn the exact alignment of every single player in the game.

multiacting 10-shot vigilante [cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target up to 10 players to attempt to get them fired.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

~ note: all town vanillas will receive the same role pm.

Okay so I'm dumb and explaining Rather than working, but I have the wording now, so don't wanna risk losing it later.

BASICALLY:
21? (Too lazy to check if this is the number of players, but I think so?) Players with 4 scum as mountainous is scumsided.

You might wonder how, but keep in mind that if I recall correctly, 11:2 is the balance metric for mountainous.

Double the scum to 4, and you need Double the town, plus or minus 1: 21 or 23 town, to keep it on odds. (Yes, mountainous might not directly scale, but I'm doing loose mental math here. Point is, there's not enough town for it to be balanced as a mountainous.)

What that means is,
THE NET TOTAL SUM VALUE OF THE TOWN ROLES IN THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MOUNTAINOUS STANDARD:
Any and every boon that the scum has, needs to be weaker than the town's boons. The strength of the extra scum kills and the strength of the scum roles needs to still add up to a sum total LESS than the sum total value of the town's roles.

If we treat mountainous 4 scum as value 0, then scum kills are negative, and scum power roles are also negative. Town's roles having nerfs isn't negative so much as divisive, or if you prefer, multiplicative by a fraction value.

Because a value of 0 is scumsided, the value needs to move notably to the positive, say by +20 (numbers arbitrary).

So, what value does this mean?

Enter, the percentage nerfs.

Percentage has an obvious nerf, in enabling the scum extra kills. This is, loosely, a positive being counterbalanced by a negative. If the town roles all act, it'd be, say, a +20 to a -15-30: loosely breaking even, and being either slightly beneficial to the scum -20++) or town (-15).

The roles are thus naturally counterbalanced by the extra kills, bringing the sum total close to 0. As a reminder, it needs to be significantly higher than 0.

However, there's a SECOND nerf for every power role:
Any with stacking percentages will eventually exceed 100%, and any role exceeding 100% cannot fire every night.
THE MORE ANY POWER ROLE IS USED, THE LESS OFTEN IT CAN BE USED.

This further reduces the value of each PR, effectively making them take a minimum of two days to fire--more, if desiring to limit scum kills.

And then,
THE MORE TOWN ROLES THERE ARE, THE MORE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR USING THEM GROW.
Which means extra punishment dropping the value even further, as this game is quite obviously PR heavy.

Evert town role (except Roden's, which is why I thought it bullshit) has consequences for being used, dropping the points value for the sum total which needs to be notably above 0.

Which means that you'd expect the roles to be strong, right???

...Except their strength is heavily gated. One-shot cop, not full cop.

THE TOWN'S ROLES GATES MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO WEAK FOR SCUM TO HAVE STRONG ROLES.

Because the town's roles have gates in the form of modifiers, high percentage costs that grow, etc., that means EVEN IN A HEAVILY PR CENTRIC GAME, the scum CANNOT have strong roles, else the sum total is at 0 or even negative, when it needs to be above positive by some margin.

Thus, the scum roles must be fairly weak.
Irchers role to give a conformable role.
A rolestopper or ascetic for some defensive power that doesn't stop all of the town's strength.
An action investigation role that isn't a rolecop, but still gives them info.
And a Goon.

Is a balanced scumteam.
(Outta time.)

[mastina]

public info about the setup

1. the basics:

~ the town faction is named

café's employees

. the mafia faction is named

the inspectors

.
~ closed setup.
~ while the setup does not meet normal guidelines, it is non-bastard, and none of the roles are overly complex.
~ players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
~ non-town power roles function as normal.
~ using town power roles requires

productivity percentage points

; see below.

2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.

3. the average of town's productivity:

~ at the end of each day, the arithmetic average of all townies' productivity that day is calculated.
~ if the average is 75% or higher, nothing happens.
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.
~ it is

not

publicly revealed what the town's average productivity is, or how many extra kills the mafia has that night.
~ the mafia will only know how many extra nightkills they have, if any; they will not be informed what the town's average productivity was.

4. sample town vanilla and town power role role pm:

Spoiler:

vanilla waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are a

vanilla waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

this job sucks, but it beats being homeless.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

n/a

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are an

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

solving world hunger? achieving world peace? but Datisi's café needs you!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

informed [cost: 69%]

- during the night, activate this power. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn the exact alignment of every single player in the game.

multiacting 10-shot vigilante [cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target up to 10 players to attempt to get them fired.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

~ note: all town vanillas will receive the same role pm.

Okay so I'm dumb and explaining Rather than working, but I have the wording now, so don't wanna risk losing it later.

BASICALLY:
21? (Too lazy to check if this is the number of players, but I think so?) Players with 4 scum as mountainous is scumsided.

You might wonder how, but keep in mind that if I recall correctly, 11:2 is the balance metric for mountainous.

Double the scum to 4, and you need Double the town, plus or minus 1: 21 or 23 town, to keep it on odds. (Yes, mountainous might not directly scale, but I'm doing loose mental math here. Point is, there's not enough town for it to be balanced as a mountainous.)

What that means is,
THE NET TOTAL SUM VALUE OF THE TOWN ROLES IN THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MOUNTAINOUS STANDARD:
Any and every boon that the scum has, needs to be weaker than the town's boons. The strength of the extra scum kills and the strength of the scum roles needs to still add up to a sum total LESS than the sum total value of the town's roles.

If we treat mountainous 4 scum as value 0, then scum kills are negative, and scum power roles are also negative. Town's roles having nerfs isn't negative so much as divisive, or if you prefer, multiplicative by a fraction value.

Because a value of 0 is scumsided, the value needs to move notably to the positive, say by +20 (numbers arbitrary).

So, what value does this mean?

Enter, the percentage nerfs.

Percentage has an obvious nerf, in enabling the scum extra kills. This is, loosely, a positive being counterbalanced by a negative. If the town roles all act, it'd be, say, a +20 to a -15-30: loosely breaking even, and being either slightly beneficial to the scum -20++) or town (-15).

The roles are thus naturally counterbalanced by the extra kills, bringing the sum total close to 0. As a reminder, it needs to be significantly higher than 0.

However, there's a SECOND nerf for every power role:
Any with stacking percentages will eventually exceed 100%, and any role exceeding 100% cannot fire every night.
THE MORE ANY POWER ROLE IS USED, THE LESS OFTEN IT CAN BE USED.

This further reduces the value of each PR, effectively making them take a minimum of two days to fire--more, if desiring to limit scum kills.

And then,
THE MORE TOWN ROLES THERE ARE, THE MORE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR USING THEM GROW.
Which means extra punishment dropping the value even further, as this game is quite obviously PR heavy.

Evert town role (except Roden's, which is why I thought it bullshit) has consequences for being used, dropping the points value for the sum total which needs to be notably above 0.

Which means that you'd expect the roles to be strong, right???

...Except their strength is heavily gated. One-shot cop, not full cop.

THE TOWN'S ROLES GATES MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO WEAK FOR SCUM TO HAVE STRONG ROLES.

Because the town's roles have gates in the form of modifiers, high percentage costs that grow, etc., that means EVEN IN A HEAVILY PR CENTRIC GAME, the scum CANNOT have strong roles, else the sum total is at 0 or even negative, when it needs to be above positive by some margin.

Thus, the scum roles must be fairly weak.
Irchers role to give a conformable role.
A rolestopper or ascetic for some defensive power that doesn't stop all of the town's strength.
An action investigation role that isn't a rolecop, but still gives them info.
And a Goon.

Is a balanced scumteam.
(Outta time.)

(NOTE: Percentage means that town's holstering is dividing town's ++strength to be less; town blasting is multiplying scums' --effect to be greater.)

I realize that this is a theme game with theme mechanics/roles, but the formatting of roles/results/etc. Means that Datisi is clearly channeling his NRG experience.

What this means is that this game in many ways works as a scaled up Mini: 1 extra scum, to 9 extra town acting as a buffer for the extra scum kills.

The balance standard for a mini:
3-4 moderately strong tprs vs 0-1 weak scum prs. Datisi likes his scum prs, which bumps the total up to 4-6 fairly strong tprs vs. 2-3 scum prs. Or, if the town roles aren't all that strong, more like 8 or so tprs of weaker strength.

A popular default scum role combo:
1 interference role (roleblocker strong, ascetic/rolestopper mid),
1 investigative (rolecop strong, tracker type mid),
1 goon or worthless eg messenger role.

Scaled up, you get either 2 messengers (what I thought) or q messenger 1 goon.

And for the town, double the ~8 to ~12-16 tprs.

But the scum can't have the strongest versions of their roles, because they are too strong as-is.

[mastina]

public info about the setup

1. the basics:

~ the town faction is named

café's employees

. the mafia faction is named

the inspectors

.
~ closed setup.
~ while the setup does not meet normal guidelines, it is non-bastard, and none of the roles are overly complex.
~ players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
~ non-town power roles function as normal.
~ using town power roles requires

productivity percentage points

; see below.

2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.

3. the average of town's productivity:

~ at the end of each day, the arithmetic average of all townies' productivity that day is calculated.
~ if the average is 75% or higher, nothing happens.
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.
~ it is

not

publicly revealed what the town's average productivity is, or how many extra kills the mafia has that night.
~ the mafia will only know how many extra nightkills they have, if any; they will not be informed what the town's average productivity was.

4. sample town vanilla and town power role role pm:

Spoiler:

vanilla waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are a

vanilla waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

this job sucks, but it beats being homeless.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

n/a

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are an

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

solving world hunger? achieving world peace? but Datisi's café needs you!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

informed [cost: 69%]

- during the night, activate this power. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn the exact alignment of every single player in the game.

multiacting 10-shot vigilante [cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target up to 10 players to attempt to get them fired.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

~ note: all town vanillas will receive the same role pm.

Okay so I'm dumb and explaining Rather than working, but I have the wording now, so don't wanna risk losing it later.

BASICALLY:
21? (Too lazy to check if this is the number of players, but I think so?) Players with 4 scum as mountainous is scumsided.

You might wonder how, but keep in mind that if I recall correctly, 11:2 is the balance metric for mountainous.

Double the scum to 4, and you need Double the town, plus or minus 1: 21 or 23 town, to keep it on odds. (Yes, mountainous might not directly scale, but I'm doing loose mental math here. Point is, there's not enough town for it to be balanced as a mountainous.)

What that means is,
THE NET TOTAL SUM VALUE OF THE TOWN ROLES IN THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MOUNTAINOUS STANDARD:
Any and every boon that the scum has, needs to be weaker than the town's boons. The strength of the extra scum kills and the strength of the scum roles needs to still add up to a sum total LESS than the sum total value of the town's roles.

If we treat mountainous 4 scum as value 0, then scum kills are negative, and scum power roles are also negative. Town's roles having nerfs isn't negative so much as divisive, or if you prefer, multiplicative by a fraction value.

Because a value of 0 is scumsided, the value needs to move notably to the positive, say by +20 (numbers arbitrary).

So, what value does this mean?

Enter, the percentage nerfs.

Percentage has an obvious nerf, in enabling the scum extra kills. This is, loosely, a positive being counterbalanced by a negative. If the town roles all act, it'd be, say, a +20 to a -15-30: loosely breaking even, and being either slightly beneficial to the scum -20++) or town (-15).

The roles are thus naturally counterbalanced by the extra kills, bringing the sum total close to 0. As a reminder, it needs to be significantly higher than 0.

However, there's a SECOND nerf for every power role:
Any with stacking percentages will eventually exceed 100%, and any role exceeding 100% cannot fire every night.
THE MORE ANY POWER ROLE IS USED, THE LESS OFTEN IT CAN BE USED.

This further reduces the value of each PR, effectively making them take a minimum of two days to fire--more, if desiring to limit scum kills.

And then,
THE MORE TOWN ROLES THERE ARE, THE MORE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR USING THEM GROW.
Which means extra punishment dropping the value even further, as this game is quite obviously PR heavy.

Evert town role (except Roden's, which is why I thought it bullshit) has consequences for being used, dropping the points value for the sum total which needs to be notably above 0.

Which means that you'd expect the roles to be strong, right???

...Except their strength is heavily gated. One-shot cop, not full cop.

THE TOWN'S ROLES GATES MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO WEAK FOR SCUM TO HAVE STRONG ROLES.

Because the town's roles have gates in the form of modifiers, high percentage costs that grow, etc., that means EVEN IN A HEAVILY PR CENTRIC GAME, the scum CANNOT have strong roles, else the sum total is at 0 or even negative, when it needs to be above positive by some margin.

Thus, the scum roles must be fairly weak.
Irchers role to give a conformable role.
A rolestopper or ascetic for some defensive power that doesn't stop all of the town's strength.
An action investigation role that isn't a rolecop, but still gives them info.
And a Goon.

Is a balanced scumteam.
(Outta time.)

(NOTE: Percentage means that town's holstering is dividing town's ++strength to be less; town blasting is multiplying scums' --effect to be greater.)

I realize that this is a theme game with theme mechanics/roles, but the formatting of roles/results/etc. Means that Datisi is clearly channeling his NRG experience.

What this means is that this game in many ways works as a scaled up Mini: 1 extra scum, to 9 extra town acting as a buffer for the extra scum kills.

The balance standard for a mini:
3-4 moderately strong tprs vs 0-1 weak scum prs. Datisi likes his scum prs, which bumps the total up to 4-6 fairly strong tprs vs. 2-3 scum prs. Or, if the town roles aren't all that strong, more like 8 or so tprs of weaker strength.

A popular default scum role combo:
1 interference role (roleblocker strong, ascetic/rolestopper mid),
1 investigative (rolecop strong, tracker type mid),
1 goon or worthless eg messenger role.

Scaled up, you get either 2 messengers (what I thought) or q messenger 1 goon.

And for the town, double the ~8 to ~12-16 tprs.

But the scum can't have the strongest versions of their roles, because they are too strong as-is.

Basically, the percentage mechanic acts as a force multiplier for the scum, and/or a force nullifier for the town.

When the total sum needs to be notably above 0, the scum prs drag the amount too close or even below 0 if too strong.

The town power roles being gated by role gates and percentage costs, as well as fear of the extra kill leading to theoretically using less than the maximum, means that their ~12 tprs don't bump the total up nearly enough.

The scum even having the scum prs be notable drags the total arguably too low imo, but Datisi tends to have more of a scumsided setup lean if I recall correctly.

Yet even with that lean, full roleblockers/rolecops/etc. Is too much.

The scum roles need to be moderate to weak, to account for the town's roles being triple nerfed from their theoretical maximum potential.

And because Datisi likes those scum roles, he has them in their mid-powered format: rolestopper or ascetic,
And an action investigation role.

[mastina]

public info about the setup

1. the basics:

~ the town faction is named

café's employees

. the mafia faction is named

the inspectors

.
~ closed setup.
~ while the setup does not meet normal guidelines, it is non-bastard, and none of the roles are overly complex.
~ players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
~ non-town power roles function as normal.
~ using town power roles requires

productivity percentage points

; see below.

2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.

3. the average of town's productivity:

~ at the end of each day, the arithmetic average of all townies' productivity that day is calculated.
~ if the average is 75% or higher, nothing happens.
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.
~ it is

not

publicly revealed what the town's average productivity is, or how many extra kills the mafia has that night.
~ the mafia will only know how many extra nightkills they have, if any; they will not be informed what the town's average productivity was.

4. sample town vanilla and town power role role pm:

Spoiler:

vanilla waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are a

vanilla waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

this job sucks, but it beats being homeless.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

n/a

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are an

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

solving world hunger? achieving world peace? but Datisi's café needs you!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

informed [cost: 69%]

- during the night, activate this power. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn the exact alignment of every single player in the game.

multiacting 10-shot vigilante [cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target up to 10 players to attempt to get them fired.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

~ note: all town vanillas will receive the same role pm.

Okay so I'm dumb and explaining Rather than working, but I have the wording now, so don't wanna risk losing it later.

BASICALLY:
21? (Too lazy to check if this is the number of players, but I think so?) Players with 4 scum as mountainous is scumsided.

You might wonder how, but keep in mind that if I recall correctly, 11:2 is the balance metric for mountainous.

Double the scum to 4, and you need Double the town, plus or minus 1: 21 or 23 town, to keep it on odds. (Yes, mountainous might not directly scale, but I'm doing loose mental math here. Point is, there's not enough town for it to be balanced as a mountainous.)

What that means is,
THE NET TOTAL SUM VALUE OF THE TOWN ROLES IN THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MOUNTAINOUS STANDARD:
Any and every boon that the scum has, needs to be weaker than the town's boons. The strength of the extra scum kills and the strength of the scum roles needs to still add up to a sum total LESS than the sum total value of the town's roles.

If we treat mountainous 4 scum as value 0, then scum kills are negative, and scum power roles are also negative. Town's roles having nerfs isn't negative so much as divisive, or if you prefer, multiplicative by a fraction value.

Because a value of 0 is scumsided, the value needs to move notably to the positive, say by +20 (numbers arbitrary).

So, what value does this mean?

Enter, the percentage nerfs.

Percentage has an obvious nerf, in enabling the scum extra kills. This is, loosely, a positive being counterbalanced by a negative. If the town roles all act, it'd be, say, a +20 to a -15-30: loosely breaking even, and being either slightly beneficial to the scum -20++) or town (-15).

The roles are thus naturally counterbalanced by the extra kills, bringing the sum total close to 0. As a reminder, it needs to be significantly higher than 0.

However, there's a SECOND nerf for every power role:
Any with stacking percentages will eventually exceed 100%, and any role exceeding 100% cannot fire every night.
THE MORE ANY POWER ROLE IS USED, THE LESS OFTEN IT CAN BE USED.

This further reduces the value of each PR, effectively making them take a minimum of two days to fire--more, if desiring to limit scum kills.

And then,
THE MORE TOWN ROLES THERE ARE, THE MORE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR USING THEM GROW.
Which means extra punishment dropping the value even further, as this game is quite obviously PR heavy.

Evert town role (except Roden's, which is why I thought it bullshit) has consequences for being used, dropping the points value for the sum total which needs to be notably above 0.

Which means that you'd expect the roles to be strong, right???

...Except their strength is heavily gated. One-shot cop, not full cop.

THE TOWN'S ROLES GATES MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO WEAK FOR SCUM TO HAVE STRONG ROLES.

Because the town's roles have gates in the form of modifiers, high percentage costs that grow, etc., that means EVEN IN A HEAVILY PR CENTRIC GAME, the scum CANNOT have strong roles, else the sum total is at 0 or even negative, when it needs to be above positive by some margin.

Thus, the scum roles must be fairly weak.
Irchers role to give a conformable role.
A rolestopper or ascetic for some defensive power that doesn't stop all of the town's strength.
An action investigation role that isn't a rolecop, but still gives them info.
And a Goon.

Is a balanced scumteam.
(Outta time.)

(NOTE: Percentage means that town's holstering is dividing town's ++strength to be less; town blasting is multiplying scums' --effect to be greater.)

I realize that this is a theme game with theme mechanics/roles, but the formatting of roles/results/etc. Means that Datisi is clearly channeling his NRG experience.

What this means is that this game in many ways works as a scaled up Mini: 1 extra scum, to 9 extra town acting as a buffer for the extra scum kills.

The balance standard for a mini:
3-4 moderately strong tprs vs 0-1 weak scum prs. Datisi likes his scum prs, which bumps the total up to 4-6 fairly strong tprs vs. 2-3 scum prs. Or, if the town roles aren't all that strong, more like 8 or so tprs of weaker strength.

A popular default scum role combo:
1 interference role (roleblocker strong, ascetic/rolestopper mid),
1 investigative (rolecop strong, tracker type mid),
1 goon or worthless eg messenger role.

Scaled up, you get either 2 messengers (what I thought) or q messenger 1 goon.

And for the town, double the ~8 to ~12-16 tprs.

But the scum can't have the strongest versions of their roles, because they are too strong as-is.

Basically, the percentage mechanic acts as a force multiplier for the scum, and/or a force nullifier for the town.

When the total sum needs to be notably above 0, the scum prs drag the amount too close or even below 0 if too strong.

The town power roles being gated by role gates and percentage costs, as well as fear of the extra kill leading to theoretically using less than the maximum, means that their ~12 tprs don't bump the total up nearly enough.

The scum even having the scum prs be notable drags the total arguably too low imo, but Datisi tends to have more of a scumsided setup lean if I recall correctly.

Yet even with that lean, full roleblockers/rolecops/etc. Is too much.

The scum roles need to be moderate to weak, to account for the town's roles being triple nerfed from their theoretical maximum potential.

And because Datisi likes those scum roles, he has them in their mid-powered format: rolestopper or ascetic,
And an action investigation role.

Now, there IS room for a HEAVILY GATED roleblocker, but it needs to be INCREDIBLY gated.

We're talking, one-shot or MAYBE 2x. (But let's be real, if my memory of Datisi scumsiding setups by default is true, it's 2x. But not 3x or more, even Datisi wouldn't do that.)

So why am I so adamant that it's doubtful that I was roleblocked?

...Because:
LAST NIGHT, THE SCUM KNEW THAT TOWN PRODUCTIVITY DROPPED BELOW 75%.

They had an extra kill.

Because they knew that they had an extra kill, they could estimate how much percentage that the town used: enough to be below 75%, but above 50%.

I had publicly stated I was using 50%, which gave the scum an extra insight into estimating the percentage used. And the conclusion:
THE SCUM KNEW THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRODUCTIVITY WAS MISSING, AND THAT THEREFORE THE TOWN HAD SOME HUGE PERCENTAGE NOT HOLSTERED.

So, if the town had enough not holstered to give the scum a second kill, with them knowing my percentage, they could deduce about how much was missing--and know that by the math, it was A LOT.

Say...enough for a second vig shot from Vivax?

He theoretically could, too! He said he was holstering, but the scum knew that SOMEONE used enough to trigger a second kill. (Or multiple people used a bit which added up.)

Vivax yesterday was, explicitly, a wildcard.
What he said he'd do, what stances he said he had, everything was constantly changing.
So when the scum got a second kill, it wouldn't be too far a logical leap to conclude that Vivax had another shot prepped.

Why, then, would the scum use ONE OF THEIR ONLY SHOTS on ME, rather than blocking THE CLAIMED VIG WHO LIKELY LIED ABOUT HOLSTERING? (Okay, so I'm not sure Vivax did, but from a scum perspective, it SHOULD have looked like he lied about holstering.)

More than that:
With the number of shots limited to said hypothetical roleblocker, why would the scum burn it N2 on me, when it's better to save it for an outed PR whose actions the scum need to block?
If they wasted it on me but, say, there was a cop-doc combo (we had a doc and we have cop roles), they wouldn't be able to stop it. (Yes, doc dead N1, butstill.)

In a game that they know will be basically honorary Role Madness with only a few VTs, why would they burn it on me N2 when they could be fucked over by not having the roleblock after, sayyyy, massclaim?

But beyond that, why roleblock me on N2?

The best night to roleblock me was N1, after I announced 0%, strongly hinting at a N1 action.
The second-best time would be N3, the night before the grand reveal I promised would come on D4.

If my role had different effects triggered by different days, then the best nights to stop it would be N1 or N3. The middle of the chain should be the least important part, not the most important part.

The only way that I can see them prioritizing a block on me N1 is if they knew I hadn't acted N1--sayyyyyy, by fireisredsir having legitimately targeted me N1 and reporting that I didn't visit to his scumbuddies?


Basically, no matter how you slice it, Fire is implicated as scum.

If scum blocked Vivax, then my failure is not explained. Thus, Fire scum.
If scum used a rolestopper to defend against Vivax, then fire is scum.
If scum KNEW to use a roleblock on me, that information came from a scum investigation on me--an action which fire claims to have performed on me.

Ergo, no matter how you slice the cake, Fire is scum here.

[mastina]

public info about the setup

1. the basics:

~ the town faction is named

café's employees

. the mafia faction is named

the inspectors

.
~ closed setup.
~ while the setup does not meet normal guidelines, it is non-bastard, and none of the roles are overly complex.
~ players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
~ non-town power roles function as normal.
~ using town power roles requires

productivity percentage points

; see below.

2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.

3. the average of town's productivity:

~ at the end of each day, the arithmetic average of all townies' productivity that day is calculated.
~ if the average is 75% or higher, nothing happens.
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.
~ it is

not

publicly revealed what the town's average productivity is, or how many extra kills the mafia has that night.
~ the mafia will only know how many extra nightkills they have, if any; they will not be informed what the town's average productivity was.

4. sample town vanilla and town power role role pm:

Spoiler:

vanilla waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are a

vanilla waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

this job sucks, but it beats being homeless.

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

n/a

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

welcome,

Datisi

! you are an

omniscient, omnipotent waiter

, aligned with

café's employees

!

solving world hunger? achieving world peace? but Datisi's café needs you!

day abilities:

during each day, you may choose how productive you're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%. if you do not submit anything, you will default to 100% productivity. for a complete explanation of this mechanic, please read the setup post, located here.

night abilities:

informed [cost: 69%]

- during the night, activate this power. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn the exact alignment of every single player in the game.

multiacting 10-shot vigilante [cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]

- during the night, target up to 10 players to attempt to get them fired.

win condition:

you win once all threats to

café's employees

have been fired, and at least one member of

café's employees

is still in the game.

the main thread is here. please confirm by replying to this pm with your role name.

~ note: all town vanillas will receive the same role pm.

Okay so I'm dumb and explaining Rather than working, but I have the wording now, so don't wanna risk losing it later.

BASICALLY:
21? (Too lazy to check if this is the number of players, but I think so?) Players with 4 scum as mountainous is scumsided.

You might wonder how, but keep in mind that if I recall correctly, 11:2 is the balance metric for mountainous.

Double the scum to 4, and you need Double the town, plus or minus 1: 21 or 23 town, to keep it on odds. (Yes, mountainous might not directly scale, but I'm doing loose mental math here. Point is, there's not enough town for it to be balanced as a mountainous.)

What that means is,
THE NET TOTAL SUM VALUE OF THE TOWN ROLES IN THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MOUNTAINOUS STANDARD:
Any and every boon that the scum has, needs to be weaker than the town's boons. The strength of the extra scum kills and the strength of the scum roles needs to still add up to a sum total LESS than the sum total value of the town's roles.

If we treat mountainous 4 scum as value 0, then scum kills are negative, and scum power roles are also negative. Town's roles having nerfs isn't negative so much as divisive, or if you prefer, multiplicative by a fraction value.

Because a value of 0 is scumsided, the value needs to move notably to the positive, say by +20 (numbers arbitrary).

So, what value does this mean?

Enter, the percentage nerfs.

Percentage has an obvious nerf, in enabling the scum extra kills. This is, loosely, a positive being counterbalanced by a negative. If the town roles all act, it'd be, say, a +20 to a -15-30: loosely breaking even, and being either slightly beneficial to the scum -20++) or town (-15).

The roles are thus naturally counterbalanced by the extra kills, bringing the sum total close to 0. As a reminder, it needs to be significantly higher than 0.

However, there's a SECOND nerf for every power role:
Any with stacking percentages will eventually exceed 100%, and any role exceeding 100% cannot fire every night.
THE MORE ANY POWER ROLE IS USED, THE LESS OFTEN IT CAN BE USED.

This further reduces the value of each PR, effectively making them take a minimum of two days to fire--more, if desiring to limit scum kills.

And then,
THE MORE TOWN ROLES THERE ARE, THE MORE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR USING THEM GROW.
Which means extra punishment dropping the value even further, as this game is quite obviously PR heavy.

Evert town role (except Roden's, which is why I thought it bullshit) has consequences for being used, dropping the points value for the sum total which needs to be notably above 0.

Which means that you'd expect the roles to be strong, right???

...Except their strength is heavily gated. One-shot cop, not full cop.

THE TOWN'S ROLES GATES MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO WEAK FOR SCUM TO HAVE STRONG ROLES.

Because the town's roles have gates in the form of modifiers, high percentage costs that grow, etc., that means EVEN IN A HEAVILY PR CENTRIC GAME, the scum CANNOT have strong roles, else the sum total is at 0 or even negative, when it needs to be above positive by some margin.

Thus, the scum roles must be fairly weak.
Irchers role to give a conformable role.
A rolestopper or ascetic for some defensive power that doesn't stop all of the town's strength.
An action investigation role that isn't a rolecop, but still gives them info.
And a Goon.

Is a balanced scumteam.
(Outta time.)

(NOTE: Percentage means that town's holstering is dividing town's ++strength to be less; town blasting is multiplying scums' --effect to be greater.)

I realize that this is a theme game with theme mechanics/roles, but the formatting of roles/results/etc. Means that Datisi is clearly channeling his NRG experience.

What this means is that this game in many ways works as a scaled up Mini: 1 extra scum, to 9 extra town acting as a buffer for the extra scum kills.

The balance standard for a mini:
3-4 moderately strong tprs vs 0-1 weak scum prs. Datisi likes his scum prs, which bumps the total up to 4-6 fairly strong tprs vs. 2-3 scum prs. Or, if the town roles aren't all that strong, more like 8 or so tprs of weaker strength.

A popular default scum role combo:
1 interference role (roleblocker strong, ascetic/rolestopper mid),
1 investigative (rolecop strong, tracker type mid),
1 goon or worthless eg messenger role.

Scaled up, you get either 2 messengers (what I thought) or q messenger 1 goon.

And for the town, double the ~8 to ~12-16 tprs.

But the scum can't have the strongest versions of their roles, because they are too strong as-is.

Basically, the percentage mechanic acts as a force multiplier for the scum, and/or a force nullifier for the town.

When the total sum needs to be notably above 0, the scum prs drag the amount too close or even below 0 if too strong.

The town power roles being gated by role gates and percentage costs, as well as fear of the extra kill leading to theoretically using less than the maximum, means that their ~12 tprs don't bump the total up nearly enough.

The scum even having the scum prs be notable drags the total arguably too low imo, but Datisi tends to have more of a scumsided setup lean if I recall correctly.

Yet even with that lean, full roleblockers/rolecops/etc. Is too much.

The scum roles need to be moderate to weak, to account for the town's roles being triple nerfed from their theoretical maximum potential.

And because Datisi likes those scum roles, he has them in their mid-powered format: rolestopper or ascetic,
And an action investigation role.

Now, there IS room for a HEAVILY GATED roleblocker, but it needs to be INCREDIBLY gated.

We're talking, one-shot or MAYBE 2x. (But let's be real, if my memory of Datisi scumsiding setups by default is true, it's 2x. But not 3x or more, even Datisi wouldn't do that.)

So why am I so adamant that it's doubtful that I was roleblocked?

...Because:
LAST NIGHT, THE SCUM KNEW THAT TOWN PRODUCTIVITY DROPPED BELOW 75%.

They had an extra kill.

Because they knew that they had an extra kill, they could estimate how much percentage that the town used: enough to be below 75%, but above 50%.

I had publicly stated I was using 50%, which gave the scum an extra insight into estimating the percentage used. And the conclusion:
THE SCUM KNEW THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRODUCTIVITY WAS MISSING, AND THAT THEREFORE THE TOWN HAD SOME HUGE PERCENTAGE NOT HOLSTERED.

So, if the town had enough not holstered to give the scum a second kill, with them knowing my percentage, they could deduce about how much was missing--and know that by the math, it was A LOT.

Say...enough for a second vig shot from Vivax?

He theoretically could, too! He said he was holstering, but the scum knew that SOMEONE used enough to trigger a second kill. (Or multiple people used a bit which added up.)

Vivax yesterday was, explicitly, a wildcard.
What he said he'd do, what stances he said he had, everything was constantly changing.
So when the scum got a second kill, it wouldn't be too far a logical leap to conclude that Vivax had another shot prepped.

Why, then, would the scum use ONE OF THEIR ONLY SHOTS on ME, rather than blocking THE CLAIMED VIG WHO LIKELY LIED ABOUT HOLSTERING? (Okay, so I'm not sure Vivax did, but from a scum perspective, it SHOULD have looked like he lied about holstering.)

More than that:
With the number of shots limited to said hypothetical roleblocker, why would the scum burn it N2 on me, when it's better to save it for an outed PR whose actions the scum need to block?
If they wasted it on me but, say, there was a cop-doc combo (we had a doc and we have cop roles), they wouldn't be able to stop it. (Yes, doc dead N1, butstill.)

In a game that they know will be basically honorary Role Madness with only a few VTs, why would they burn it on me N2 when they could be fucked over by not having the roleblock after, sayyyy, massclaim?

But beyond that, why roleblock me on N2?

The best night to roleblock me was N1, after I announced 0%, strongly hinting at a N1 action.
The second-best time would be N3, the night before the grand reveal I promised would come on D4.

If my role had different effects triggered by different days, then the best nights to stop it would be N1 or N3. The middle of the chain should be the least important part, not the most important part.

The only way that I can see them prioritizing a block on me N1 is if they knew I hadn't acted N1--sayyyyyy, by fireisredsir having legitimately targeted me N1 and reporting that I didn't visit to his scumbuddies?


Basically, no matter how you slice it, Fire is implicated as scum.

If scum blocked Vivax, then my failure is not explained. Thus, Fire scum.
If scum used a rolestopper to defend against Vivax, then fire is scum.
If scum KNEW to use a roleblock on me, that information came from a scum investigation on me--an action which fire claims to have performed on me.

Ergo, no matter how you slice the cake, Fire is scum here.

As for why fire's claim is a scumclaim, it's a perspective slip.

Fire has two different reasons claimed for checking me two nights in a row, but there's a disconnect between the two.

The first night is a scum investigation of my claim imo, but since it's plausibly town, fair. I believe that scum had FAR more incentive for the action than town, because the reward is far greater for the scum. But because it's plausible as a town action albeit far more optimal a scum action, then let's move on to the next issue:

The second night of investigating me makes no sense from town.

If I was scum who didn't act N1, why would I suddenly act N2?
Fire might have suspected me, but I didn't act N1, and fire had 100% proof I didn't. Meaning that as scum, I wouldn't have suddenly acted N2. There was no scum elimination D2, so whoever performed the N1 kills could and WOULD perform them again.

It's fair for fire to have had Suspicion on me, but fire had every reason to believe that I wouldn't act as scum N2, because I didn’t act N1. Nothing about how D2 went would make a scum player who didn't act N1, act N2.

If I was town to fire, then he'd know that I claimed a D4 reveal and didn’t act N1. This meant that if he thought that I was town, then he'd have thought the action would be N3, not N2.

There's no town reasons for investigating me two nights in a row when N1 gave a no-visit result and no scum died D2.

What that tells me then, is that the N1 target is truthful, but the N2 target is a panicked "You couldn't POSSIBLY have a result on me, I was mune/we blocked you!" (Either works.) Where he claimed that he visited me again, out of knowledge my action failed, but not from a second investigation.

I believe that fire actually investigated me N1, and some other unclaimed town player N2, but changed the N2 target in direct response to my claim. That the N2 claim of me is a TMI panic.

[mastina]

Work phoneposting, but:
1: can't keep up with thread from work, so no further commentary now.

I realized that I rushed some things eg fire claim not acknowledged, but I promise that when I am not 2 hours late for work, I'll be able to talk more about everything.

3: I need to go through the day again and give non-fire-centric thoughts, off of changed information.

For instance, Ydrasse locktownned, jjh locktownned, PP locktownned, and the big one: Lukewarm locktownned, among others.

Another biggie:
Obviously, Klick and Dann aren't scum together.
But both individually are ambivalent to me: having reasons to be town, but also, reasons to be scum. They COULD be TvT, but aren't sVs, and still have a decent chance of having scum.

Klick is potentially scum for some things yet town for others, Dann is potentially scum by play but might have townslipped yet the townslip is fakeable.

So uh.

Gonna need to rain check this one. (I think that's the expression to use? Delay until tomorrow.)

We, uh. We have other things on our mind. (Quite literal, mind.)
Is something we need to relax from. (Mafia's not relaxing.)

We'll be back to gaming (and hey, maybe some semblance of normal!) tomorrow.

[mastina]

VOTE: fireisredsir

[mastina]

VOTE: fireisredsir

This is explicitly to tilt fire, but to be more explicit than the emote:
This is not a real vote; it is a placeholder vote while I hunt for the third scum.

fire should never be eliminated while there are two scum left alive, so my vote there is, explicitly, a wagon that should never go through.

But I wanted it as a statement because if the third scum we eliminate isn't a roleblocker of some kind, then my No Result is still fairly damning.

Remember:

the scum aren't multitasking

.
Remember:

Titus couldn't both rolecop N2 and kill

.
Remember:

I got no result N2

.
Remember:

The scum must have a role that caused my failure N2

.

There's three possibilities for my failed result:
Scum roleblocked me;
Scum used a rolestopper type role on fireisredsir (which they'd only do if fire was one of them);
fireisredsir is ascetic.

If the third scum is a rolestopper type role, then fire is automatically the fourth and final scum.

If the third scum is a role which absolutely shouldn't have holstered N2 to make a kill, then the result is still damning because the implication is that either the last scum is a roleblocker and the scum gave up on a powerful ability N2...
...Or that fire is ascetic and was in fact the one making the kill while his teammates used their useful actions.

So for fire to be town, then EITHER:
The third scum we eliminate MUST be a roleblocker,
The third scum we eliminate MUST have a role they wouldn't use N2,
OR, the scum MUST have given up on a powerful action they wouldn't want to give up on, in order to use a roleblock N2. Titus especially knowing she was likely to go down would want to get a second rolecop result to her team; A roleblocker would need to block me; the third scum would want to use their role; either Titus or that third scum wouldn't be able to.

All of this is to say:
fire is not an elimination I'm making any time soon. Even after the third scum goes down there's a fairly high chance I'm not going to

actually

vote for fire after that. But I want it on the record that it's still possible for him to be scum and will constantly be assessing off of the info given.

Anyway, again, tl;dr:
Not actually voting fire to vote for fire, vote was half joke half statement all placeholder; I'm gonna be hunting third scum.

[mastina]

STARTING POINTS:

I need to review yesterday, but fire vs. me reveals a lot of players' alignments imo.

Exasperation/frustration/solving/etc. indicates potential town; lack of emotion/response/etc. indicates possible scum.

TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.
TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:
{jjh927, PenguinPower} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo.

WHAT'S LEFT AS A STARTING POINT:
Malakittens
furtiveglance

Andresvmb

(basically shouldn't be scum here no matter what, probably is in the above tbh)

{Dannflor, Klick}

(has a maximum of 1 scum between them, could both be town but both have individual sus things)

Something_Smart

(tbh I want Something_Smart to claim because by play he fits as scum)

fireisredsir

(could be fourth scum but again, third scum

needs

to be eliminated first)

[mastina]

STARTING POINTS:

I need to review yesterday, but fire vs. me reveals a lot of players' alignments imo.

Exasperation/frustration/solving/etc. indicates potential town; lack of emotion/response/etc. indicates possible scum.

TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:

{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.

TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:

{jjh927, PenguinPower} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo.

WHAT'S LEFT AS A STARTING POINT:
Malakittens
furtiveglance

Andresvmb

(basically shouldn't be scum here no matter what, probably is in the above tbh)

{Dannflor, Klick}

(has a maximum of 1 scum between them, could both be town but both have individual sus things)

Something_Smart

(tbh I want Something_Smart to claim because by play he fits as scum)

fireisredsir

(could be fourth scum but again, third scum

needs

to be eliminated first)

Formatting fix'd.

[mastina]

This game is getting exciting, but also frustrating. I'm at a point where I think I have a broadly correct poe of Dannflor (it should be Dannflor not RC btw Datisi), Malakittens, Something Smart, maybe Titus/Ydrasse, but it's hard to get those votes going. Let's see if we can revive the S_S wagon.
VOTE: Something_Smart

Uh oh.

We shouldn't fire Ydrasse, I think they're an Employee. I'll vote Ircher for now but I might unvote if they come on and explain why they thought 17/4.
VOTE: Ircher

Uh-oh.

Spoiler: (tl;dr: avoided voting both Titus AND Roden)

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Uncrowned

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

Vivax [2]:

Ydrasse,

furtiveglance

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens

Something_Smart [5]:

furtiveglance

, PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned, Vivax

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

firing

Roden [6]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Something_Smart [3]:

PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned

RCEnigma [3]:

furtiveglance

, fireisredsir, Vivax

Titus [2]:

Roden, Lukewarm

firing

Roden [6]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Titus [3]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Vivax

Something_Smart [3]:

PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned

RCEnigma [2]:

furtiveglance

, fireisredsir

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Vivax, Ausuka

Malakittens [2]:

furtiveglance

, Uncrowned

firing

Roden [7]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Ausuka, Dannflor

Something_Smart [1]:

furtiveglance

mastina [1]:

fireisredsir

vote count 2.final

firing

Roden [9]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower, Vivax, Lukewarm

[HAMMER]

Titus [3]:

Roden, Ausuka, Dannflor

Something_Smart [1]:

furtiveglance/size][

UH-OH.

...Maybe I had the "right idea, wrong person" with an f name that was deepwolf powertowning?

'Cause initial glance: that ain't a good luck for furtive.
Didn't vote Titus at all, vote on Ircher looks suspect, vote on Titus while claiming to have suspicion on prior day that isn't actually displayed in the votecounts = verrrrrrrrrrrrrrry suspect.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[mastina]

(oops accidentally highlighted wrong f name in 2250 and had the formatting fuckup in 2264 but you get the idea--it suspect; I need to investigate things further tho)

[mastina]

I don't really get furtiveglance being in your pool

Well furtive has been town to me for the whole game--but there's two scum left and only so many possible candidates.

I don't remember why I was townreading furtive--maybe I regain that townread, I'm still going along trying to figure it out. I'll keep you updated.

[mastina]

VOTE: titus
i got u lukewarm bby

Mala is possible scum as well here--
Stayed off of the Ircher wagon D1 (I don't expect literally ALL the scum to be on the D1 Ircher wagon); the NKA heavily implicates her; she never voted Titus until yesterday and her Titus read before the vote is...worrying (as in there was basically none).

Her play looks town.

But her stances are...questionable/worrying/etc.

So I can't in good faith remove her from the suspect pool.

[mastina]

I would imagine Ausuka is a vig shot

I think she was viably in the miselimination pool and unless scum saw something they thought was a crumb or something I doubt they take that shot

i mean i thought she was scum for what i thought was heavily softing a PR and then later walking it back so it's def possible scum saw the same thing i did
i did figure out eventually that i was misinterpreting but it did really look that way at first to me

^First post of day.

anyway i think mastina is probably scum but we can go for titus first ig

im slightly concerned about giving scum!mastina what she wants in terms of living to d4 but at this point maybe it's worth it for the chance that she's town

Spoiler: Additional posts prior to mine

And honestly, I intend to spend most of my time trying to figure out whether Titus makes sense as an execution here, because odds are that they’ll face immense pressure (way too many votes have piled on there both yesterday and today, and there’s been a lot of discussion about the slot). Klick just… isn’t going to get executed over several other suspicious slots today. So your push seems way out of place to me.

do you think it's a bad idea to look in multiple places? i don't get this

"way too many votes have piled on there [for her to not be pressured again today]" i think

LMAO

im going to wait for someone smart to tell me what this means
i don't think titus' claim makes sense tho

if it succeeded then why did ydra get a result that titus doesn't have a PT?

if it succeeded then why did ydra get a result that titus doesn't have a PT?

I didn't have it yet. I should soon.

... you get it during the day?

(tl;dr none of them mention me at all--also those posts in of themselves look suspect in the Titus interaction. Just sayin'.)
For the record--these don't look like the posts of a town player who investigated me N2 and saw me not acting.

But again. While there's quite a high chance fire is scum, we gotta eliminate the third scum first to prove he's scum. (IDEALLY with the third scum flipping rolestopper as the hardest of hard condemns for him imo, since just a not-roleblocker isn't a hard guilty. But obviously only way to tell is with said third scum flip.)

[mastina]

i have a role where i can check to see if people have pts(EXCEPT THE MAFIA PT) and join them if they do
titus doesn’t have any pts

dayummmmmmm
I think Titus is lying then
VOTE: Titus

i have a role where i can check to see if people have pts(EXCEPT THE MAFIA PT) and join them if they do
titus doesn’t have any pts

I am waiting for the mod. Technically accurate. I had a conditional action to masonize mastina if no one visited her. It resolves last in nar.

I do actually think Mastina will back this, so the smartest thing is to
UNVOTE: Titus

im going to wait for someone smart to tell me what this means
i don't think titus' claim makes sense tho

(I'm starting to think it might just be furtive + fire, but like: still have 20 pages to view AND THEN cross-reference with players' stances across the game, both flipped scum and the living players ON the flipped scum.)