Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

[GuiltyLion]

It had almost no success getting traction on gamma because of a ubiquitous claim that her tone and emotion were coming from town, and I find it really weird that as far as I can say nothing really seems to have changed that much but here's a wagon out of nowhere.

my main thing with Gamma is I thought she felt genuinely uninformed of marci's alignment. When I pushed on marci at the very start of the game, Gamma kinda pushed back at me in a defensive way, I think this was out of considering her a friend and not wanting her to get bullied immediately out of playing at gamestart. Then Gamma slowly became more and more suspicious of marci throughout D1/D2, it didn't feel like a calculated trajectory to me and I feel scum!Gamma would have been more likely to stick to an approach of buddying marci rather than picking a fight with her and claiming to feel "betrayed"

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: obscure

I'm still not feeling great about this and still need to re-ISO DV, I am taking a train to Portland shortly and will try to do a bit of reading during that, but looking at wagon comp I still like this option much better than DV. MT wagon seems ok but I haven't found the courage to re-evaluate my Gamma townread yet

[Thestatusquo]

Can you please at least look at fire?

[GuiltyLion]

Was there something specific to look at? He's still in that space for me of townie but every now and then making a clangy post. but I'd feel stupid if we limmed him and he flips town over the more classically scummy and more immediately appealing options. I don't think he's necessarily endgame for me atm.

Also 5211 is kinda exactly how I'm feeling, thats a perceptive post if hes scum, and I feel I'd need to see more of fire's interactions with flipped town/scum to feel confident about voting there

[GuiltyLion]

Anyway train is now taking off so gonna do some ISOs

[Ausuka]

ok i'm here to DO STUFF

does anyone have any stuff for me to do otherwise i'm just gonna vibe around and do my own thing

[Ausuka]

i will try and make a fire post tsq don't worry

[Nero Cain]

inb4 Ausuka puts out some awesome case on Fire that everyone sheeps. I think she's said some scummy sounding this but I p much always feel that about her.

[Datisi]

I read back to the point where scamper softed an inno on you and Marci claimed the vig kill on VPB.

well mostly that. your slot claimed vig and if that's true, i don't want an un-caught-up vig shooting power roles, you feel

also, fire mentioning it does remind that tweet is like, known for fucking up scum on replace in. i think i've recently seen mena say that as scum, tweet replacing in is NOT something you wanna see. so once i'm home tomorrow, i'll try to find examples of her repping in, and of her play here since rep in

[Thestatusquo]

I mean, we can talk about leashing again. I don't want to leash CSF anymore. I feel pretty confident that they're town based off of their interaction with me on rep in. But I would like them to read up as much as possible before shooting a bullet, yeah.

[fireisredsir]

i think a lot of that comes from perpetual melo but thats a p high standard to live up to

[GuiltyLion]

I'm re-ISOing obscure trying to build the best town case for him that I can but nothing is striking me as unfakeable or clearing

I think if he is scum he's skilled at pressing the right buttons to defuse pressure. issues I have with him are: his main real presented scumread & case on DV is fairly thin, there's some instances peppered throughout his ISO of motivated reasoning, and I also still have to ding the slot for a complete lack of substantial/clearing interactions with Baltar

[GuiltyLion]

my two main novel thoughts I had rereading obscure:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald this is a scum slot I think

HEMs early stuff I thought town and also VP but a few things struck me as off from both and I would like to look back properly at both.
I don't particularly think FB is town but I can wait for him to kick into gear for now and he's done enough that I am not auto scumreading so I don't want to vote there right now.
I am interested in seeing more of Xof's iso dives to see what kind of content is there
I will look at some stuff in the morning. I'm trying to just chuck down rough notes so I don't have to start fresh so I appreciate this is a bit halfhazard.

I don't like how cagey this feels and I don't like the excuses for:

• *Not expanding on the VP and HEM reads
  *Posting in order to use the thread as a notepad

At this rate I'll say there's probably a scum in Gamma, xo, Conman

to comment on this,

I saw conman was also a substitute. I feel like I'm doing the same thing? i agree that it's actually helpful when you're coming into the game so late because everything is kind of inflated. so i'm a townie and i sympathize with it, at least, not sure how much of an alignment tell.

i considered just keeping notes on a document first, but if something happens and i die, i want to be able to have my thoughts out there, and humanmonkey mentioned on the last page it's better to just spew all my thoughts.

I could see this post as a bit white knighty of Conman and a little LAMIST. namely the logic of "I think he's townie, cause he's doing this thing I'm also doing" I can imagine as insidiously trying to plant the idea that obscure is town.

deasvail

weird post about me (skitter), but i can ignore this since i'm not going to hold onto a first post into the game. hmm, starts by just outing a bunch of townreads, which feel sort of easy as a lot of them are sort of founded around "i agree with X's reads" rather than establishing their own (948, 949, etc)

i don't like 950 that much either because it sort of feels like they've making up a narrative "as scum, i'd expect them to do X" when that's really not like a logical assumption - mafia can act in a lot of different ways.

3242 some of the re-evaluation on the VP flip feels kind of decent.

i'm struggling a little with 3333. i feel like it's not hard for mafia to find suspects, but it may be more challenging for mafia to actually sound convincing/believable when they push on these suspects, and it sort of feels like deas doesn't really have any strong pushes (so basically what people were saying about me, even though i don't think it's contextually true about me), and that they are struggling in this regard.. which, they do acknowledge this, but i don't necessarily see that as a plus point. their read on me feels a bit.. eh, flat/waffly, like they are just sort of shrugging it off as a slightly lesser townread than before due to what people are saying but not putting a ton of thought into it. also i'm willing to look at frog again, but gut says it's not a good place to push based on my feelings yesterday.

all in all, i still think they deas has a good chance to be scum.

so rereading this post, I don't see why obscure actually thinks DV is more likely scum than anyone else. There's an implicit argument that having a lot of townreads is scummy, but it's not presented directly and it doesn't really hold up - lots of players in the game have the "too many townreads" mindset at the moment, why single out DV over all the rest? And further it applies to obscure as well, which he himself acknowledges here, but then obscure throws this out without attempting to explain the difference between DV's play and obscure's own. just an assertion that they are different.

I also specifically don't like the bit on 950 - there's a lack of depth to obscure's treatment of it.

1) just because it's not a "logical assumption", why is it scummy for DV to think fire is more likely to fake paranoia as scum?

2) the point of how "mafia can act in a lot of different ways" is true, but also kinda meaningless? like in my mind you could use that as a general retort to a lot of arguments or reasons why people might scumread somebody. the whole game is trying to make informed guesses around how scum is likely to behave. so the way obscure is just wholesale dismissing DV's read feels really uncharitable - I'd at minimum want to understand whether obscure has any thoughts on if fireisred would be more likely to fake paranoia as scum, to understand if obscure tried to empathize or engage with DV's read at all. But instead we don't see that, we just have obscure calling it a bad read by DV.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: obscure

[Dannflor]

Skimmed obscure's ISO. Thinking town there since his posting is extremely involved and detailed for someone completely new to mafia. Unless it's an alt and the "I'm new" thing is a schtick to hide the alt, seems unlikely someone gives that much spew as a first time scum.

That being said, GL and Ausuka seem to be his top town reads, and that's inherently bad. You have much to learn young padawan.

this is the only interaction in the game between the two slots

[Dannflor]

i tend to think town reads given with extremely hedgy reasoning or reasoning that is easy to back down on is more indicative of a scum buddy than not

[GuiltyLion]

there was also the Baltar question towards skitter about why she was asking me about my scamper vote and ignoring his own. but I feel that's super easy to fake as scum. I think I remember Nero thought it was dis-associative though?

[Dannflor]

oh I forgot skitter was in the role previously

[Dannflor]

the problem is i was just rereading the start of the game and i kinda really town read skitter lol

[Dannflor]

It had almost no success getting traction on gamma because of a ubiquitous claim that her tone and emotion were coming from town, and I find it really weird that as far as I can say nothing really seems to have changed that much but here's a wagon out of nowhere.

my main thing with Gamma is I thought she felt genuinely uninformed of marci's alignment. When I pushed on marci at the very start of the game, Gamma kinda pushed back at me in a defensive way, I think this was out of considering her a friend and not wanting her to get bullied immediately out of playing at gamestart. Then Gamma slowly became more and more suspicious of marci throughout D1/D2, it didn't feel like a calculated trajectory to me and I feel scum!Gamma would have been more likely to stick to an approach of buddying marci rather than picking a fight with her and claiming to feel "betrayed"

I just reread this and I don't really feel like Gamma ever starts buddying Marci

it seems more a way to just pick at you tbh

[Ausuka]

My thoughts on fireisredsir

- I was scumleaning them on d1. This was because they felt purposefully noncommital, especially around Ari in posts like 590 or 658. Looking back now, I don't think this point is as strong as I did back then - there is some backpedalling going on but Ari is scary in general and I don't think it's that consistent of a theme.

-I didn't really like their presence on FB and Eiralox because I thought they were both super easy pushes that created the impression of doing stuff and posting content without actually doing a whole lot for town. I still think this, and especially that the push on eiralox was kind of eh. Like - I think he was just drowning in post count and the nature of the large theme game, and I think it's pretty clear that in general his normal behaviour is going to be different to his behaviour where he's light years behind and has no idea what was going on. So in particular I think their push on Eira was uncharitable and potentially was initiated with the desire to build a wagon and making Fire look proactive?

- I think 1127 looks like town, because they seem to be leaving stuff on the table w/ Relly where I expect scum to, like, try make the pushes they feel like they can make at least somewhat genuinely?

- they were one of the people in ari's reads post. I don't think this matters too much? But it's a factor that I'm looking at because she had 5 scumreads and according to Scamper's Very Reliable Sources Datisi is town, and so fire and S_S as the other slots she was scumreading (CMM was wrong and VPB was right) should get a bit more scrutiny than other slots in my opinion. I also feel like Firebringer slot was scumread generically by people whereas Fireisredsir's slot was a lot more, deepwolfy? And so it would make more sense to kill to protect it.

- I don't like their progression on shea d2. I think coming into the day scumreading that slot (whereas d1 they seemed to strike an extremely neutral tone at all times), flipping around to a townlean and then going back to being cool w/ the Shea wagon feels... off to me. To elaborate; 3416 shows that they are leaning town on Shea - for what I consider to be good reasons, like that the way Shea progresses his reads is towny, and then just, pivots away from acknowledging that and leave it, eg in 3483 where they ask for scamper's thoughts on their point about shea - only to say they are cool with the shea wagon *before scamper even responds*. I know they do emphasise their uncertainty in that post but I don't know if that makes it better for me. I feel like they really emphasised that uncertainty to just an extreme degree because they wanted Shea to be eliminated at some point and didn't feel it was strategic to make a defense there? Because I feel like this is a good point they're making and they just forget all about it and go back to pushing Shea way too easily imo.

- I don't like 4844. I said I couldn't explain why at the time, mostly because it was a gut reaction, but I can give it a go - part of the reason it feels so slimy to me is that they're strongly pushing the narrative to look for scum off the hem wagon when they were someone who jumped on it. Something about the combination of doing x -> arguing that scum would never do x so quickly just bothers me. This wouldn't really matter if I thought this post from fire also makes sense coming from town, but I don't really think it does - sure, scum don't just hop on town wagons all the time, but they don't just avoid them either and I feel like fire knows this. I feel strongly the right answer is to look for scum both on and off the HEM wagon and I expect them to say this instead of acting like scum would just never turn around and jump on a wagon in that way.

- I also didn't like 5146. I also find this one hard to verbalise. I suppose it doesn't really seem natural - of course, it's always a possibility that duelling wagons are both red, but I don't understand what they're trying to do just bringing up this possibility. It feels like they're pretty much willing to push whoever's viable - which yes sounds like a surface level reason to scumread someone, but consider
1) while doing this they have been advocating that scum wouldn't play in this manner and have likely been playing around that
2) pushing eliminations is just... good for scum, and if endgaming isn't specifically the highest priority on their agenda right now - for example, if they had a partner more townread to them - I think it makes more sense to aggressively try to advance the scum wincon, while also not really creating associatives by pushing back against any wagons that might actually be scum
3) maybe this goes too deep into theory but like, I don't think you can really say "scum wouldn't be opportunistic because that burns their towncred" if you advocate that being opportunistic shouldn't lose people towncred???

- I think their interactions with VPB can be s/s easily. 162 feels kinda distancey but that's early game so whatever. 519 is kind of discouraging me from pushing VPB, which slightly rubs me the wrong way but again whatever. The main point that makes me think this is Not Good is that they seem to not really address VPB for most of the day or while he was being pushed?? Like, they scumread VPB starting in 2264 but by that point I think CMM and Dann were kinda just the duelling wagons? And any danger to VPB had passed. VPB seems to ask fire a few questions but like, I'm not sure there's much of substance there? Their interactions aren't positive, but don't really seem to be threatening to each other either. I think their interactions are +scum for fire here.

- I'm putting this at the back because I don't feel super confident on this point and feel sort of dumb bringing it up, but it kind of feels like they were encouraging me to scumread marci?? in 624 when I say town marci would feel more tonally spunky they say "I could buy that." This really does not mean anything on its own but when combined with 3096 where they do the same thing on d2, and their overall progression on marci - they call her town early d1, drop that and pretty much hold her as a consistent scumread without really justifying it at all - I think it feels suspicious.

I'm tired and finishing this early; I think there are maybe some points to be made in fire's favour that I haven't really pondered too much here, like read fluidity is generally an indicator of town and even though I think it could be scum motivated in this case I don't *know* how reliable that is because I don't think I've ever read a slot as playing scum in this manner before? But overall I think fire is pretty scummy yeah and I'm tired so I'm leaving it here, I think it's long enough as it is. Sorry for not being articulate as was hoped, but at least I didn't do nothing right?

[marcistar]

hrr

[Ausuka]

holy shit that took too long im going to bed

[Frogsterking]

5370 shall be named the "fireisscum" post.

[Datisi]

- I don't like 4844. I said I couldn't explain why at the time, mostly because it was a gut reaction, but I can give it a go - part of the reason it feels so slimy to me is that they're strongly pushing the narrative to look for scum off the hem wagon when they were someone who jumped on it. Something about the combination of doing x -> arguing that scum would never do x so quickly just bothers me. This wouldn't really matter if I thought this post from fire also makes sense coming from town, but I don't really think it does - sure, scum don't just hop on town wagons all the time, but they don't just avoid them either and I feel like fire knows this. I feel strongly the right answer is to look for scum both on and off the HEM wagon and I expect them to say this instead of acting like scum would just never turn around and jump on a wagon in that way.

---

- I'm putting this at the back because I don't feel super confident on this point and feel sort of dumb bringing it up, but it kind of feels like they were encouraging me to scumread marci?? in 624 when I say town marci would feel more tonally spunky they say "I could buy that." This really does not mean anything on its own but when combined with 3096 where they do the same thing on d2, and their overall progression on marci - they call her town early d1, drop that and pretty much hold her as a consistent scumread without really justifying it at all - I think it feels suspicious.

what posts are these? neither 4844 nor 3096 are fire's posts. i'm trying to find them in fire's iso, but i'm tired and not really succeeding in that

other than this, def think the case could have some merit, but i'd like to sleep on it first