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[fireisredsir]

- I don't like 4844. I said I couldn't explain why at the time, mostly because it was a gut reaction, but I can give it a go - part of the reason it feels so slimy to me is that they're strongly pushing the narrative to look for scum off the hem wagon when they were someone who jumped on it. Something about the combination of doing x -> arguing that scum would never do x so quickly just bothers me. This wouldn't really matter if I thought this post from fire also makes sense coming from town, but I don't really think it does - sure, scum don't just hop on town wagons all the time, but they don't just avoid them either and I feel like fire knows this. I feel strongly the right answer is to look for scum both on and off the HEM wagon and I expect them to say this instead of acting like scum would just never turn around and jump on a wagon in that way

(4484)
i didn't say any of this tho? nowhere did i say that scum would never do x or that scum wouldn't be on the hem wagon

i said that scum who had a strong townread on hem making the choice to flip that read to a scumread and vote hem would need a strongly motivating reason to make that choice. i 100% stand by this. scum often struggle with inertia and for most scum players it's rare that they'll want to flip their read without good reason bc it draws a lot of attention

i also said that i had trouble imagining what world there could be that would provide scum with a sufficiently powerful motivating factor to do that based on the gamestate at the time

this wasn't like a major thought, i don't think i ever based any reads off it, i was just kinda pondering what i would expect scum to do (and basing it on what i felt i would do in that position if i were scum and hem was town) since that was the current topic of conversation

[Ausuka]

- I don't like 4844. I said I couldn't explain why at the time, mostly because it was a gut reaction, but I can give it a go - part of the reason it feels so slimy to me is that they're strongly pushing the narrative to look for scum off the hem wagon when they were someone who jumped on it. Something about the combination of doing x -> arguing that scum would never do x so quickly just bothers me. This wouldn't really matter if I thought this post from fire also makes sense coming from town, but I don't really think it does - sure, scum don't just hop on town wagons all the time, but they don't just avoid them either and I feel like fire knows this. I feel strongly the right answer is to look for scum both on and off the HEM wagon and I expect them to say this instead of acting like scum would just never turn around and jump on a wagon in that way.

---

- I'm putting this at the back because I don't feel super confident on this point and feel sort of dumb bringing it up, but it kind of feels like they were encouraging me to scumread marci?? in 624 when I say town marci would feel more tonally spunky they say "I could buy that." This really does not mean anything on its own but when combined with 3096 where they do the same thing on d2, and their overall progression on marci - they call her town early d1, drop that and pretty much hold her as a consistent scumread without really justifying it at all - I think it feels suspicious.

what posts are these? neither 4844 nor 3096 are fire's posts. i'm trying to find them in fire's iso, but i'm tired and not really succeeding in that

other than this, def think the case could have some merit, but i'd like to sleep on it first

ugh i feel really bad. this is why you don't wallpost while sleep deprived kids

4484 and 3097 is what i mean

[fireisredsir]

- I also didn't like 5146. I also find this one hard to verbalise. I suppose it doesn't really seem natural - of course, it's always a possibility that duelling wagons are both red, but I don't understand what they're trying to do just bringing up this possibility. It feels like they're pretty much willing to push whoever's viable - which yes sounds like a surface level reason to scumread someone, but consider
1) while doing this they have been advocating that scum wouldn't play in this manner and have likely been playing around that
2) pushing eliminations is just... good for scum, and if endgaming isn't specifically the highest priority on their agenda right now - for example, if they had a partner more townread to them - I think it makes more sense to aggressively try to advance the scum wincon, while also not really creating associatives by pushing back against any wagons that might actually be scum
3) maybe this goes too deep into theory but like, I don't think you can really say "scum wouldn't be opportunistic because that burns their towncred" if you advocate that being opportunistic shouldn't lose people towncred???

i explained my thought process more in 5181, dunno if that helps

ive read this a few times and i don't really know what your (1) (2) (3) points are in reference to? i don't think any of these are points that i was arguing?

are these reasons for why i could be playing to push whoever is viable as scum here? (if so, fair ig, i don't think there's any reason why I wouldn't be doing that as scum here)

[Ausuka]

- I don't like 4844. I said I couldn't explain why at the time, mostly because it was a gut reaction, but I can give it a go - part of the reason it feels so slimy to me is that they're strongly pushing the narrative to look for scum off the hem wagon when they were someone who jumped on it. Something about the combination of doing x -> arguing that scum would never do x so quickly just bothers me. This wouldn't really matter if I thought this post from fire also makes sense coming from town, but I don't really think it does - sure, scum don't just hop on town wagons all the time, but they don't just avoid them either and I feel like fire knows this. I feel strongly the right answer is to look for scum both on and off the HEM wagon and I expect them to say this instead of acting like scum would just never turn around and jump on a wagon in that way

(4484)
i didn't say any of this tho? nowhere did i say that scum would never do x or that scum wouldn't be on the hem wagon

i said that scum who had a strong townread on hem making the choice to flip that read to a scumread and vote hem would need a strongly motivating reason to make that choice. i 100% stand by this. scum often struggle with inertia and for most scum players it's rare that they'll want to flip their read without good reason bc it draws a lot of attention

i also said that i had trouble imagining what world there could be that would provide scum with a sufficiently powerful motivating factor to do that based on the gamestate at the time

this wasn't like a major thought, i don't think i ever based any reads off it, i was just kinda pondering what i would expect scum to do (and basing it on what i felt i would do in that position if i were scum and hem was town) since that was the current topic of conversation

i can respond to this better tomorrow but

i feel like what i said is more or less accurate? like, you're pushing that scum are people who stayed off hem's wagon and that we should yeet those people because they held out their vote 'for no good reason'

sure scum -can- have inertia but i just really disagree that scum aren't also often opportunistic? like, scum do very much pivot and change their reads when convenient imo and i think it's unlikely you think otherwise?

i guess if i have time i could look into your meta to see if this is a position you, like, consistently hold. i think it's a pretty useful line of argument to push if you are playing as opportunistic scum, which if you're red seems to be your style, which is the point i'm trying to make

pedit: i see you responded again but im really sorry but i have to sleep now i dont think i can keep going

[Dannflor]

VOTE: morning tweet

[Dannflor]

going out to dinner

i don't super vibe with the later posts on fire

they are lines of logic/emotion that i vibe with and often employ, i also think fire's noncomittalness hasn't had like... a ton of agenda behind it?

to me the strongest points here is the trajectory on shea and the interactions with vpb

[fireisredsir]

i can respond to this better tomorrow but

i feel like what i said is more or less accurate? like, you're pushing that scum are people who stayed off hem's wagon and that we should yeet those people because they held out their vote 'for no good reason'

sure scum -can- have inertia but i just really disagree that scum aren't also often opportunistic? like, scum do very much pivot and change their reads when convenient imo and i think it's unlikely you think otherwise?

i guess if i have time i could look into your meta to see if this is a position you, like, consistently hold. i think it's a pretty useful line of argument to push if you are playing as opportunistic scum, which if you're red seems to be your style, which is the point i'm trying to make

pedit: i see you responded again but im really sorry but i have to sleep now i dont think i can keep going

idk it just seems like you are misinterpreting and taking this to the extreme of it being a position that i feel strongly about and pushed hard rather than it being a kind of throwaway thought where once i looked into who those people actually were, i decided i didn't really subscribe to that idea anymore

i do generally believe that scum act in order to get townread and in order to yeet town, and a lot of scum players (not all!) are often reluctant to take significant action that will make them less townread unless they have a good reason. and i was saying that i didn't really see what the good reason would be for scum to join the hem wagon if they already strongly townread him

dann also agreed with what i was saying (in the moment, at least) so idk i think it was reasonable. unless you think we're scum together

anyway no rush, gn

[DeasVail]

my two main novel thoughts I had rereading obscure:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald this is a scum slot I think

HEMs early stuff I thought town and also VP but a few things struck me as off from both and I would like to look back properly at both.
I don't particularly think FB is town but I can wait for him to kick into gear for now and he's done enough that I am not auto scumreading so I don't want to vote there right now.
I am interested in seeing more of Xof's iso dives to see what kind of content is there
I will look at some stuff in the morning. I'm trying to just chuck down rough notes so I don't have to start fresh so I appreciate this is a bit halfhazard.

I don't like how cagey this feels and I don't like the excuses for:

• *Not expanding on the VP and HEM reads
  *Posting in order to use the thread as a notepad

At this rate I'll say there's probably a scum in Gamma, xo, Conman

to comment on this,

I saw conman was also a substitute. I feel like I'm doing the same thing? i agree that it's actually helpful when you're coming into the game so late because everything is kind of inflated. so i'm a townie and i sympathize with it, at least, not sure how much of an alignment tell.

i considered just keeping notes on a document first, but if something happens and i die, i want to be able to have my thoughts out there, and humanmonkey mentioned on the last page it's better to just spew all my thoughts.

I could see this post as a bit white knighty of Conman and a little LAMIST. namely the logic of "I think he's townie, cause he's doing this thing I'm also doing" I can imagine as insidiously trying to plant the idea that obscure is town.

deasvail

weird post about me (skitter), but i can ignore this since i'm not going to hold onto a first post into the game. hmm, starts by just outing a bunch of townreads, which feel sort of easy as a lot of them are sort of founded around "i agree with X's reads" rather than establishing their own (948, 949, etc)

i don't like 950 that much either because it sort of feels like they've making up a narrative "as scum, i'd expect them to do X" when that's really not like a logical assumption - mafia can act in a lot of different ways.

3242 some of the re-evaluation on the VP flip feels kind of decent.

i'm struggling a little with 3333. i feel like it's not hard for mafia to find suspects, but it may be more challenging for mafia to actually sound convincing/believable when they push on these suspects, and it sort of feels like deas doesn't really have any strong pushes (so basically what people were saying about me, even though i don't think it's contextually true about me), and that they are struggling in this regard.. which, they do acknowledge this, but i don't necessarily see that as a plus point. their read on me feels a bit.. eh, flat/waffly, like they are just sort of shrugging it off as a slightly lesser townread than before due to what people are saying but not putting a ton of thought into it. also i'm willing to look at frog again, but gut says it's not a good place to push based on my feelings yesterday.

all in all, i still think they deas has a good chance to be scum.

so rereading this post, I don't see why obscure actually thinks DV is more likely scum than anyone else. There's an implicit argument that having a lot of townreads is scummy, but it's not presented directly and it doesn't really hold up - lots of players in the game have the "too many townreads" mindset at the moment, why single out DV over all the rest? And further it applies to obscure as well, which he himself acknowledges here, but then obscure throws this out without attempting to explain the difference between DV's play and obscure's own. just an assertion that they are different.

I also specifically don't like the bit on 950 - there's a lack of depth to obscure's treatment of it.

1) just because it's not a "logical assumption", why is it scummy for DV to think fire is more likely to fake paranoia as scum?

2) the point of how "mafia can act in a lot of different ways" is true, but also kinda meaningless? like in my mind you could use that as a general retort to a lot of arguments or reasons why people might scumread somebody. the whole game is trying to make informed guesses around how scum is likely to behave. so the way obscure is just wholesale dismissing DV's read feels really uncharitable - I'd at minimum want to understand whether obscure has any thoughts on if fireisred would be more likely to fake paranoia as scum, to understand if obscure tried to empathize or engage with DV's read at all. But instead we don't see that, we just have obscure calling it a bad read by DV.

I leaned towards the messiness of the read on me more likely coming from town. Obscure seems like a thoughtful player and my inclination was that as scum he would be more careful to avoid the inconsistencies in his suspicion of me.

I don’t consider this to be clearing as such, but it does make me hesitant to scumread obscure.

[DeasVail]

Also gamma is someone who I have thought was scum for a while but had difficulty articulating the read. I think that Tweet’s replace-in is also more typical of scum and I feel good about eliminating there

[fireisredsir]

and on shea, i think my 3416 shows that i am p clearly wavering on this read and going back and forth on it a lot and struggling to figure out how to interpret what im seeing. it's obviously not just a townlean

and then... that continues to happen

it's literally still happening. i think right now gth i would guess that they're town but at the same time id rather they get flipped over most of the rest of the game. i think that's been more or less my position for a while, with a few moments of tilting towards scumreading

shea is just one of those playstyles that i struggle coming to a confident read on bc they are good at sounding genuine as scum, and at the same time i also am not really on the same wavelength most of the time in terms of understanding their thought process. that makes for a lot of doubt about whether I'm coming to the right conclusions, bc i don't know what im supposed to be looking for in order to read them correctly

[Dannflor]

I just keep feeling like I'm mind melding with a lot of what fire posts and the parts that I do find scummy are I think not actually as alignment indicative as I first thought

I do feel best about gamma/morning-tweet right now of all the current wagons

that may change in 5 minutes but that's the most conviction you're gonna get out of me right now

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: tweet

[Thestatusquo]

I would like more frequent vote counts.

[DeasVail]

The other thing about Obscure’s scumread of me is that he was the first person to make a serious push on me. As scum when you identify someone to “scumread” who is not widely suspected at the time, I think there is a greater feeling of pressure (particularly for someone newer) to make the read “smooth”, if that makes sense.

[DeasVail]

I remember back in the day when the bar for sufficient activity was to have more posts than the mod.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah but that was back in the day when game days went "ehhhh maybe I'll put a deadline on if we get to a month and discussion slows down"

[DeasVail]

…slows down to less than one page per 24 hours?

[T3]

Morning Tweet (5): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir
obscure (4): Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
DeasVail (3): marcistar, Enchant, obscure
Thestatusquo (1): Cat Scratch Fever
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, scamper, Morning Tweet
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean i still think gamma was scum but I'm still alarmed by how everyone told me i was wrong and then happily jumped on.

VOTE: tweet

[Thestatusquo]

I think the scum team is something like

{Fire gamma SS and then a wildcard of someone who I'm not scum reading.}

[Ydrasse]

i love musecirclejerk

[Ausuka]

good morning

uh i'll type up responses to fire at some point

i was townreading gamma mostly but if morning tweet is polarised that wagon seems fine

zzz

[Ausuka]

VOTE: obscure

Whatever I'm just tired

join me and kill fire.

I am willing to do this if we have numbers which i do not think we do

[Ausuka]

i would be Interested in hearing from ausuka on fire

i'd also be fine with letting nero lead because i think he's town and clearly me trying to have things my way is not going great

i guess i'd also like to hear what u think of it?

why don't you just make one yourself

cuz I'm lazy, less articulate, and less likely to be given credence from other people.

sorry my post probably did not meet your standards

[Datisi]

VOTE: tweet

y-2

actually reading her iso this game, this feels really polarized, and the fact that she's so quiet and accepting of her wagon makes me feel like she has accepted her death. she was going mad in chara's folly. which maybe isn't a fair comparison considering she just repped in here, but uh yeah feeling this lethargic is scummy anyways i think.

if she is scum, then i would not be surprised if she is being bussed and that feeling partly came from her teammates. this is moreso post hoc thinking after seeing fire vote there, but i think it could have some merit either way.

i don't think i have enough brainpower for this game day to actually do some Deep Thinking about fire's alignment, but it is only day two, there is tomorrow.