Micro 1062 | Divide and Conquer | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 1.12

fferyllt (3):

Cephrir, Dannflor, PookyTheMagicalBear

Radja (2):

Lucian, SCRRRDBEAR

PookyTheMagicalBear (2):

Radja, Isis

Dannflor (1):

SirCakez

SCRRRDBEAR (1):

fferyllt

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is October 14 at 7:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-14 11:00:00)

Notes:

Happy scumday to Cephrir! Your account is now old enough to drive~
Isis is V/LA from Friday-Sunday

[SirCakez]

Ok I'm back sorry I have been out of service for two days thus my VLA

[SirCakez]

I'll read up later tonight but if any questions or responses are needed for me I'll be checking

[Isis]

Dannflor is scum with Pooky

[fferyllt]

My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town

I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture

I like this thought.

I've been away from mafia for several months. I'm not sure I grok the current site culture well enough to see how it impacted hood formation. I hope you have more thoughts on hood formation further into the thread! If not, I'll probably ask you a few questions.

I have two scumleans who are from different hoods, so I'm going to declare the game solve is Dannflor/Somnus.

Somnus just feels performative. 22 doesn't add anything to the discussion. 18 is way longer than it needs to be. And the last line of 29 feels designed to make it known that he's definitely thinking and solving the game.

As for Dannflor, the timing of posts 15 and 21 is weird. I feel like, Dannflor as town would likely post these two posts at the same time. Either at the time of 15, when he allegedly gave up on being secretive about his thoughts on the hoods; or at 21, when he started outing reads. Considering they were separate (and assuming Dannflor was already thinking the thoughts in 21 at the time he posted 15), I'm guessing he's scum who wanted his posting to match the pacing of the thread, and didn't want to start promoting a solving atmosphere. And after Cephrir started outing takes on people being town, Dannflor wanted to match it himself.

As for townleans - Isis is townie for 23, Pooky is townie because my gut says so.

I like this. It's a good chunk of analysis for so early in the game. The lack of RVS is probs a factor. note to self: potential meta homework.

Cakez' 36 is hmm. 38 is more aligned with my reactions to page 1-2.

Also! I'm looking forward to playing with you again, Dann! Especially in a slot that didn't self-destruct before you inherited it!

45 explains Ceph's hood theory wrt to Radja. I grudgingly like it.

i'm harmless!

~snort~

My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town

I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture

Can you elaborate on this? Why wouldnt I divide it like this?
I was thinking I would lock you as town if we were in different neighbourhoods, but that didn't happen.

Also hi Cakez, I remember you too!

to my mind, the small hood contains 3 small name players (because i have not heard of them) while the large hood contains all of the big players. i feel like you wouldn't have done that to yourself - it's too likely the players who play often will be able to find each other as town if they were all town. i think the large hood scum decided to carry the game, i think they are likely a veteran planning to blend in with a crowd they know well, i think because they are a veteran they most likely called the shot on how to divide the hoods, and the presence of strong players in their hood will also explain why they don't die at night.

granted this is partly stemming from my belief that eliming in the small hood was clearly optimal which i'm not so sure about anymore

Interesting, I noted something similar within the small hood. Me and Scared Bear, who are the only players on this list who could be either new or alts, are in the small hood, with Somnus. I was maybe more confident in Somnus being scum than I really should've been, as I don't think it's outright

damning

for him, but it does feel like it should be interesting.

However, your thoughts on the hood distribution do feel more coherent than mine. I can buy it. And I feel like it's a towny thought process from Cephrir.

More good thoughts. Though, with Ceph, I'm more curious to see the presence and tenor of woe-is-me, or lack thereof.

i had some of these thoughts pregame and others during it

i dont really have a lot of reads yet. i'm reading lucian's personality as stilted but i don't have a problem with it at this time. isis might be a town lean i guess

hmm

fwiw i think dann is mostly right here except i probably would not be eager to make myself the center of attention immediately given recent history

Which game(s) are in the recent history bucket?

@Isis

, bottom of page 3 reads like your twitter thread. This is more whimsical than I recall you being, but that was long ago and far away.

@SCRRRD

, have you played with Isis before?

Isis's 90 thinking what i'm thinking when I'm thinking it. I've been assuming Lucian is newish to MS, though probs not new to mafia. I've kinda pivoted after scanning how many games he's played. Could be new to MS. game history suggests possibly alt. I wonder if more newbies are avoiding the newbie game queue altogether these days.

the isis scum read feels kinda easy

like yes i think that post is surface level scummy in that is it mech talk and not really unique mech talk

but the first line makes it feel more like isis is town who really wants to interact with the thread but doesn't have much to share yet. idk like maybe scum!isis would feel compelled to post and make a bad post but i feel like she'd rather wait until she had something good to post or just pick at something that looks more contenty

maybe I'm giving her too much credit here but especially since she follows it up with #39 and #42 not long after it does feel genuine in the sense that she just has no thoughts *yet* but wants to interact anyway

BE ALERT, DON'T GET HURT

I BELIEVE LUCIAN AND I WERE SIDELINED IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE STATUS QUO BIAS IN THE BIG HOOD

I BELIEVE ISIS HAS THE MOST TO BENEFIT FROM THE STATUS QUO BIAS

ANYWAY, MY HOOD SOLUTION IS EASY VOTE: SOMNUS

Hmm

I BELIEVE LUCIAN AND I WERE SIDELINED IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE STATUS QUO BIAS IN THE BIG HOOD

I BELIEVE ISIS HAS THE MOST TO BENEFIT FROM THE STATUS QUO BIAS

I feel dumb and don't really understand what this means, can you explain more

UNLESS YOU ARE SCUM WHITE KNIGHTING ISIS, YOU ARE DEFENDING THEM RIGHT NOW FOR BAD REASONS, AKA POCKETED, AKA STATUS QUO BIAS. YOU DON'T WANT TO ATTACK ISIS BECAUSE IT GOES AGAINST THE STATUS QUO.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE HOOD:

POOKY AND CAKE DON'T EXPECT EACH OTHER TO DEFEND THEM

CEPHRIR HAS EASIER TIME POCKETING PLAYERS WHO ARE UNFAMILIAR WITH THEIR SCUM GAME

IN FACT, ALL THREE OF CEPHRIR, POOKY AND CAKE DO BETTER IN A LITTLE HOOD THAN A BIG HOOD.

IDK WHO THE OTHER ONE IS, RADJI? THEY SEEM TIMID. THEY PUT THEMSELVES IN THERE BY MISTAKE MAYBE AS MY 2ND GUESS.

MY FIRST GUESS THOUGH, ISIS, THEY PUT THEMSELF IN BIG HOOD BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKELY TO WORK OUT FOR THEM.

I'm getting a sense that SCRRRD believes what he's posting, but I seriously disagree that Pooky or Ceph would be hampered in a large neighborhood. Cakez? maybe. I think scum-Cakez would prefer the larger hood for more opportunity to blend in.

How were you and Lucian sidelined?

BABY HOOD

Why is the baby hood a sideline?

VOTE: Somnus


BEAR POWA

VOTE: Somnus


BEAR POWA

Based on fossil evidence from Russia and Bulgaria, the first known members of the family Procyonidae lived in Europe in the late Oligocene about 25 million years ago. Similar tooth and skull structures suggest procyonids and weasels share a common ancestor, but molecular analysis indicates a closer relationship between raccoons and bears.

There can't be two scum in that hood~

side note: I once ran into a raccoon in my garage. He was trying to open the freezer, and he looked big enough to carry that freezer on his back.

Somnus, do you have any reads at all?
Like, if it's not you, it HAS to be either Lucian or ScaredBear. Who are you looking at here?

I'm not convinced lynching in the small hood is a good play here, so I would love to see you put in some effort here and produce some reads.

I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.

[Lucian]

I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.

Does this mean you townread Radja? If so - why?

[fferyllt]

unvote:

Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though.

[fferyllt]

I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.

Does this mean you townread Radja? If so - why?

I do.

My one niggle is that I'm not seeing Radja under pressure here so far, and that's usually when I get strong townfeels from him. This is a strong entrance for him, and I like where his head is at.

[SirCakez]

Dannflor is scum with Pooky

This sounds about right

[Cephrir]

Which game(s) are in the recent history bucket?

my last 2 scum games (some dance game and a micro as shuichi) were absolutely embarrassing due to scum fatigue

[Cephrir]

unvote:

Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though.

how does this square with the sense that SCRRRD believes what he's posting

[SCRRRDBEAR]

DON'T EVER LET FIRE GROW

UNCONTROLLED FIRE KNOWS NO FRONTIERS

@SCRRRD, have you played with Isis before?

GRRRRRRR

[fferyllt]

unvote:

Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though.

how does this square with the sense that SCRRRD believes what he's posting

It's a combo of things. Seeing SCRRRD come up with an early teamsolve with so little data is troubling. And, Lucien is coming off far more town than SCRRRD so far.

I'm a little at sea simply due to the possibility of alts. Neither are playing like newish mafia players.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

UNVOTE:

[SCRRRDBEAR]

UNVOTE:

NOT BEARY KIND OF YOU TO LIE TO US

VOTE: POOKY

[Cephrir]

this game feels really easy right now. sorry about somnus, pooky

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

?

[Dannflor]

who is scrrrdbear's partner, ffery

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

happy cakeday ceph

:3

[Cephrir]

?

im sad that you rolled scum with an empty slot and this replacement is too late to save you

[Cephrir]

and yes i am old thank u 4 noticing

[Dannflor]

ig I'd kill pooky at this point too

[SCRRRDBEAR]

VOTE: RADJA

DANNFLOR'S POSTING IMPROVED GREATLY IN 508. NO LONGER FEELS LIKE FLOATY SCUM SLOT. NOW

EVERYONE

IN BIG HOOD STARTING TO CATCH MY SQUINTY EYE.

why is this post so weird

why did it take one post that honestly i don't think feels all too different from every other post ive made this game

why does it feel so performativeeeeee

BETTER, FOCUSED ANALYSIS WITH COMPLETE THOUGHTS UNLIKE YOUR OTHER BIG POSTS (190 389) AND I FELT LIKE YOU WERE TRYING TO WORK WITH ME BY RETHINKING MY SLOT, INCLUDING POST TAGS AND ADDRESSING MY SUSPICIONS WITHOUT DISCREDITING MY SLOT.

I ALSO LIKED SOME OF YOUR OTHER POSTS LEADING UP TO IT LIKE 429, 466 and 490 + 492. NOT A LOT AND FOR NO PARTICULARLY COMPELLING REASON, BUT ENOUGH TO GIVE ME SOME MISGIVINGS ABOUT MY PUSH AND I DECIDED NOT TO LET ON TO SEE WHAT YOU DID. IT COULD BE THAT I WAS STARTING TO INTERNALLY BELIEVE I MIGHT BE TUNNELED AND THEREFORE BEGAN TO PERCEIVE YOUR POST QUALITY AS IMPROVING, THOUGH IF I HAD TO GUESS IT WAS A COMBINATION OF BOTH AND YOUR POSTS BECAME A LITTLE BIT MORE CLEAR AND POINTED AS I BECAME A LITTLE BIT LESS TUNNELED.

FTR I THINK INCLUDING THE POST TAGS ISN'T JUST EASIER TO UNDERSTAND AND VERIFY WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, I THINK IT'S CORRELATED WITH HAVING MORE FOCUSED AND PRODUCTIVE ANALYSIS ON YOUR END.

I THINK 508 CAN COME FROM SCUM BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY TO COME FROM TOWN, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO 190 AND 389. I DON'T HAVE ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT IT IS JUST MY OPINION.

AS FOR WHY IT MAY BE NAI FOR ME TO READ AS WEIRD AND PERFORMATIVE, I HAVE NO IDEA, I'M JUST A BEAR.

[Dannflor]

Interesting

The correlation was me using my computer to post in the light of day vs. my ipad at midnight

i wonder if there is causation

[fferyllt]

My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town

I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture

Can you elaborate on this? Why wouldnt I divide it like this?
I was thinking I would lock you as town if we were in different neighbourhoods, but that didn't happen.

Also hi Cakez, I remember you too!

to my mind, the small hood contains 3 small name players (because i have not heard of them) while the large hood contains all of the big players. i feel like you wouldn't have done that to yourself - it's too likely the players who play often will be able to find each other as town if they were all town. i think the large hood scum decided to carry the game, i think they are likely a veteran planning to blend in with a crowd they know well, i think because they are a veteran they most likely called the shot on how to divide the hoods, and the presence of strong players in their hood will also explain why they don't die at night.

granted this is partly stemming from my belief that eliming in the small hood was clearly optimal which i'm not so sure about anymore

To be fair, I pretty much only now you and Cakez. So I have no clue who the "small name players" are.
I suppose that matches into your "veteran player wants to carry the game" strategy though?
I was hoping I'd get some idea about your allegiance here, but nothing really points me in any direction.

I hope I can keep up with the pace of this game. I don't really like reading up too much.

Just supports my point really!

I'm a difficult read. Give it time.

This post.

On the one hand, "I'm a difficult read. Give it time" is the opposite of woe-is-me, and I'm pretty sure I'd break out in flaming hives if that's how ceph had responded.

On the other hand, Lucien's gravitas and threat if town is an unknown, I think, so that probably decreases the need/importance for woe-is-me.

On the gripping hand, Ceph hasn't encountered any real headwinds to this point. Maybe I'm using the wrong lens.

Dannflor's 163 Cakez vote raised my eyebrow enough that I switched to ISO mode to see an explanation. I'll save 190 thoughts for when I get there chronologically.

I don't like SCRRRD's 165. Binary take in a shades of grey world. Though I guess it could be confbias if he's town, given his approach looks like team-hunting and he's proceeding from a solve that assumes either Radja or Isis are scum. Very big if, though.

Dannflor is nakedvoting at a good moment for nakedvoting

VOTE: SirCakez

I laughed.

i want to townread Radja because they're another 2015 person <3
i'm playing like a shitter

2013

I DISAGREE WITH MY EARLIER READ ON ISIS. I THINK THEY MIGHT BE TOWN NOW. 179 FOR EXAMPLE. GOOD LOOK FOR THEM AND CAKEZ.

CEPHRIR AND DANNFLOR SEEM OKAY. I CAN'T REMEMBER ANY OF DANNFLOR'S POSTS. MAYBE DANNFLOR IS A LITTLE MORE SUS THAN CEPHRIR FOR THAT REASON ALONE.

RADJA CAN BE SCUM. ISIS SAID HE SEEMS CALM AND MY IMPRESSION WAS THAT THEY SEEM TIMID. WEIRD

POOKY MAYBE TRYING TO BUS SOMNUS AND POCKET ME. 130 EXAMPLE OF BUSSING AND POCKETING

IN SUMMARY, IT'S WORTH WATCHING DANNFLOR AND POOKY VERY CLOSELY, AND MY DUMB EARLY SOLVE IS SOMNUS + RADJA

I AM STILL UNOPPOSED TO EXECUTING SOMNUS D1, IN FACT I HIGHLY ENCOURAGE IT

I don't hate this post. My thoughts on Pooky's vote & interaction are very much colored by my role PM. Pocketing is a strong maybe, but I can see him getting into bear powah regardless of alignment.

I don't agree with the Radja read.

Re 190 now,

@Dann

have you played with scum-Pooky? He didn't start out as a ball of fire in the games I've played with scum-him. Or in the games I modded where he was scum.

(current tin foil is BEAR/ISIS, where BEAR came into the game, decided Somnus was a likely early elimination and that he would be locked as scum over Lucian, and so decided to start mystifying interactions with buddy)

but probably Isis is town probably

Hmm.

I wish that vote were not against me so I could see if I still hate it without the fog of omgus

I feel a case of hives coming on.

does it help you guys if I do it in not stream of consciousness format because it looks pretty clear in my head

[lucian, isis]
[pooky, Radja]
-----
[scrrrrdbear]
[somnus]
[cephrir, sircakez]

although I think I like Cephrir's reaction and recent posts a lot

but I think I need to leave the thread and come back to get a better view

THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE CAUGHT FLAIL TO ME

ALSO, WHY GROUP BOTH HOODS TOGETHER INSTEAD OF MAKING TWO SEPARATE POES?

The bolded bugs me.

Spoiler: Lucian

Spoiler: Isis

Spoiler: SirCakez

Spoiler: DannFlor

Spoiler: Cephrir

Spoiler: Somnus

Spoiler: SBEAR

Spoiler: Radja

loled.

Who were you scumreading at this point?