Micro 1062 | Divide and Conquer | Postgame
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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SirCakez he/himIs A Liehe/him
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Ok I'm back sorry I have been out of service for two days thus my VLABrian Skies - "I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup."
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SirCakez he/himIs A Liehe/him
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I'll read up later tonight but if any questions or responses are needed for me I'll be checkingBrian Skies - "I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup."
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Isis she/her, not theyBest in Classshe/her, not they
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Dannflor is scum with Pooky"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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- Location: Left Coast
I like this thought.In post 17, Cephrir wrote:My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town
I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture
I've been away from mafia for several months. I'm not sure I grok the current site culture well enough to see how it impacted hood formation. I hope you have more thoughts on hood formation further into the thread! If not, I'll probably ask you a few questions.
I like this. It's a good chunk of analysis for so early in the game. The lack of RVS is probs a factor. note to self: potential meta homework.In post 32, Lucian wrote:I have two scumleans who are from different hoods, so I'm going to declare the game solve is Dannflor/Somnus.
Somnus just feels performative. 22 doesn't add anything to the discussion. 18 is way longer than it needs to be. And the last line of 29 feels designed to make it known that he's definitely thinking and solving the game.
As for Dannflor, the timing of posts 15 and 21 is weird. I feel like, Dannflor as town would likely post these two posts at the same time. Either at the time of 15, when he allegedly gave up on being secretive about his thoughts on the hoods; or at 21, when he started outing reads. Considering they were separate (and assuming Dannflor was already thinking the thoughts in 21 at the time he posted 15), I'm guessing he's scum who wanted his posting to match the pacing of the thread, and didn't want to start promoting a solving atmosphere. And after Cephrir started outing takes on people being town, Dannflor wanted to match it himself.
As for townleans - Isis is townie for 23, Pooky is townie because my gut says so.
Cakez' 36 is hmm. 38 is more aligned with my reactions to page 1-2.
Also! I'm looking forward to playing with you again, Dann! Especially in a slot that didn't self-destruct before you inherited it!
45 explains Ceph's hood theory wrt to Radja. I grudgingly like it.
~snort~In post 52, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:i'm harmless!
More good thoughts. Though, with Ceph, I'm more curious to see the presence and tenor of woe-is-me, or lack thereof.In post 53, Lucian wrote:
Interesting, I noted something similar within the small hood. Me and Scared Bear, who are the only players on this list who could be either new or alts, are in the small hood, with Somnus. I was maybe more confident in Somnus being scum than I really should've been, as I don't think it's outrightIn post 45, Cephrir wrote:
to my mind, the small hood contains 3 small name players (because i have not heard of them) while the large hood contains all of the big players. i feel like you wouldn't have done that to yourself - it's too likely the players who play often will be able to find each other as town if they were all town. i think the large hood scum decided to carry the game, i think they are likely a veteran planning to blend in with a crowd they know well, i think because they are a veteran they most likely called the shot on how to divide the hoods, and the presence of strong players in their hood will also explain why they don't die at night.In post 27, Radja wrote:
Can you elaborate on this? Why wouldnt I divide it like this?In post 17, Cephrir wrote:My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town
I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture
I was thinking I would lock you as town if we were in different neighbourhoods, but that didn't happen.
Also hi Cakez, I remember you too!
granted this is partly stemming from my belief that eliming in the small hood was clearly optimal which i'm not so sure about anymoredamningfor him, but it does feel like it should be interesting.
However, your thoughts on the hood distribution do feel more coherent than mine. I can buy it. And I feel like it's a towny thought process from Cephrir.
hmmIn post 56, Cephrir wrote:i had some of these thoughts pregame and others during it
i dont really have a lot of reads yet. i'm reading lucian's personality as stilted but i don't have a problem with it at this time. isis might be a town lean i guess
Which game(s) are in the recent history bucket?In post 65, Cephrir wrote:fwiw i think dann is mostly right here except i probably would not be eager to make myself the center of attention immediately given recent history
@Isis, bottom of page 3 reads like your twitter thread. This is more whimsical than I recall you being, but that was long ago and far away.
@SCRRRD, have you played with Isis before?
Isis's 90 thinking what i'm thinking when I'm thinking it. I've been assuming Lucian is newish to MS, though probs not new to mafia. I've kinda pivoted after scanning how many games he's played. Could be new to MS. game history suggests possibly alt. I wonder if more newbies are avoiding the newbie game queue altogether these days.
HmmIn post 98, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:
BE ALERT, DON'T GET HURTIn post 92, Dannflor wrote:the isis scum read feels kinda easy
like yes i think that post is surface level scummy in that is it mech talk and not really unique mech talk
but the first line makes it feel more like isis is town who really wants to interact with the thread but doesn't have much to share yet. idk like maybe scum!isis would feel compelled to post and make a bad post but i feel like she'd rather wait until she had something good to post or just pick at something that looks more contenty
maybe I'm giving her too much credit here but especially since she follows it up with #39 and #42 not long after it does feel genuine in the sense that she just has no thoughts *yet* but wants to interact anyway
I BELIEVE LUCIAN AND I WERE SIDELINED IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE STATUS QUO BIAS IN THE BIG HOOD
I BELIEVE ISIS HAS THE MOST TO BENEFIT FROM THE STATUS QUO BIAS
ANYWAY, MY HOOD SOLUTION IS EASY VOTE: SOMNUS
I'm getting a sense that SCRRRD believes what he's posting, but I seriously disagree that Pooky or Ceph would be hampered in a large neighborhood. Cakez? maybe. I think scum-Cakez would prefer the larger hood for more opportunity to blend in.In post 104, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:
UNLESS YOU ARE SCUM WHITE KNIGHTING ISIS, YOU ARE DEFENDING THEM RIGHT NOW FOR BAD REASONS, AKA POCKETED, AKA STATUS QUO BIAS. YOU DON'T WANT TO ATTACK ISIS BECAUSE IT GOES AGAINST THE STATUS QUO.In post 99, Dannflor wrote:
I feel dumb and don't really understand what this means, can you explain moreIn post 98, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:I BELIEVE LUCIAN AND I WERE SIDELINED IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE STATUS QUO BIAS IN THE BIG HOOD
I BELIEVE ISIS HAS THE MOST TO BENEFIT FROM THE STATUS QUO BIAS
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE HOOD:
POOKY AND CAKE DON'T EXPECT EACH OTHER TO DEFEND THEM
CEPHRIR HAS EASIER TIME POCKETING PLAYERS WHO ARE UNFAMILIAR WITH THEIR SCUM GAME
IN FACT, ALL THREE OF CEPHRIR, POOKY AND CAKE DO BETTER IN A LITTLE HOOD THAN A BIG HOOD.
IDK WHO THE OTHER ONE IS, RADJI? THEY SEEM TIMID. THEY PUT THEMSELVES IN THERE BY MISTAKE MAYBE AS MY 2ND GUESS.
MY FIRST GUESS THOUGH, ISIS, THEY PUT THEMSELF IN BIG HOOD BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKELY TO WORK OUT FOR THEM.
Why is the baby hood a sideline?In post 106, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:
BABY HOODIn post 105, Dannflor wrote:How were you and Lucian sidelined?
There can't be two scum in that hood~In post 135, Cephrir wrote:VOTE: Somnus
BEAR POWA
Based on fossil evidence from Russia and Bulgaria, the first known members of the family Procyonidae lived in Europe in the late Oligocene about 25 million years ago. Similar tooth and skull structures suggest procyonids and weasels share a common ancestor, but molecular analysis indicates a closer relationship between raccoons and bears.
side note: I once ran into a raccoon in my garage. He was trying to open the freezer, and he looked big enough to carry that freezer on his back.
I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.In post 149, Radja wrote:Somnus, do you have any reads at all?
Like, if it's not you, it HAS to be either Lucian or ScaredBear. Who are you looking at here?
I'm not convinced lynching in the small hood is a good play here, so I would love to see you put in some effort here and produce some reads.-
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Lucian He/HimGoonHe/Him
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Does this mean you townread Radja? If so - why?In post 554, fferyllt wrote:I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.I, too, have a destiny.-
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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unvote:
Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though.-
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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I do.In post 555, Lucian wrote:
Does this mean you townread Radja? If so - why?In post 554, fferyllt wrote:I like this post. I'm now up to two townreads. I feel more strongly about this one.
My one niggle is that I'm not seeing Radja under pressure here so far, and that's usually when I get strong townfeels from him. This is a strong entrance for him, and I like where his head is at.-
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SirCakez he/himIs A Liehe/him
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This sounds about rightIn post 553, Isis wrote:Dannflor is scum with PookyBrian Skies - "I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup."
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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my last 2 scum games (some dance game and a micro as shuichi) were absolutely embarrassing due to scum fatigueIn post 554, fferyllt wrote:Which game(s) are in the recent history bucket?"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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how does this square with the sense that SCRRRD believes what he's postingIn post 556, fferyllt wrote:unvote:
Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though."I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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SCRRRDBEAR He/himGoonHe/him
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DON'T EVER LET FIRE GROW
UNCONTROLLED FIRE KNOWS NO FRONTIERS
GRRRRRRRIn post 554, fferyllt wrote:@SCRRRD, have you played with Isis before?
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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It's a combo of things. Seeing SCRRRD come up with an early teamsolve with so little data is troubling. And, Lucien is coming off far more town than SCRRRD so far.In post 560, Cephrir wrote:
how does this square with the sense that SCRRRD believes what he's postingIn post 556, fferyllt wrote:unvote:
Somnus's vote is where mine would probably be if I'd been here from the start and was feeling vote-y, though.
I'm a little at sea simply due to the possibility of alts. Neither are playing like newish mafia players.-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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UNVOTE:Show"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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SCRRRDBEAR He/himGoonHe/him
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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?Show"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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happy cakeday ceph
:3Show"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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im sad that you rolled scum with an empty slot and this replacement is too late to save youIn post 566, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:?"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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SCRRRDBEAR He/himGoonHe/him
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BETTER, FOCUSED ANALYSIS WITH COMPLETE THOUGHTS UNLIKE YOUR OTHER BIG POSTS (190 389) AND I FELT LIKE YOU WERE TRYING TO WORK WITH ME BY RETHINKING MY SLOT, INCLUDING POST TAGS AND ADDRESSING MY SUSPICIONS WITHOUT DISCREDITING MY SLOT.In post 549, Dannflor wrote:
why is this post so weirdIn post 529, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:VOTE: RADJA
DANNFLOR'S POSTING IMPROVED GREATLY IN 508. NO LONGER FEELS LIKE FLOATY SCUM SLOT. NOWIN BIG HOOD STARTING TO CATCH MY SQUINTY EYE.EVERYONE
why did it take one post that honestly i don't think feels all too different from every other post ive made this game
why does it feel so performativeeeeee
I ALSO LIKED SOME OF YOUR OTHER POSTS LEADING UP TO IT LIKE 429, 466 and 490 + 492. NOT A LOT AND FOR NO PARTICULARLY COMPELLING REASON, BUT ENOUGH TO GIVE ME SOME MISGIVINGS ABOUT MY PUSH AND I DECIDED NOT TO LET ON TO SEE WHAT YOU DID. IT COULD BE THAT I WAS STARTING TO INTERNALLY BELIEVE I MIGHT BE TUNNELED AND THEREFORE BEGAN TO PERCEIVE YOUR POST QUALITY AS IMPROVING, THOUGH IF I HAD TO GUESS IT WAS A COMBINATION OF BOTH AND YOUR POSTS BECAME A LITTLE BIT MORE CLEAR AND POINTED AS I BECAME A LITTLE BIT LESS TUNNELED.
FTR I THINK INCLUDING THE POST TAGS ISN'T JUST EASIER TO UNDERSTAND AND VERIFY WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, I THINK IT'S CORRELATED WITH HAVING MORE FOCUSED AND PRODUCTIVE ANALYSIS ON YOUR END.
I THINK 508 CAN COME FROM SCUM BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY TO COME FROM TOWN, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO 190 AND 389. I DON'T HAVE ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT IT IS JUST MY OPINION.
AS FOR WHY IT MAY BE NAI FOR ME TO READ AS WEIRD AND PERFORMATIVE, I HAVE NO IDEA, I'M JUST A BEAR.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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This post.In post 161, Cephrir wrote:
Just supports my point really!In post 143, Radja wrote:
To be fair, I pretty much only now you and Cakez. So I have no clue who the "small name players" are.In post 45, Cephrir wrote:
to my mind, the small hood contains 3 small name players (because i have not heard of them) while the large hood contains all of the big players. i feel like you wouldn't have done that to yourself - it's too likely the players who play often will be able to find each other as town if they were all town. i think the large hood scum decided to carry the game, i think they are likely a veteran planning to blend in with a crowd they know well, i think because they are a veteran they most likely called the shot on how to divide the hoods, and the presence of strong players in their hood will also explain why they don't die at night.In post 27, Radja wrote:
Can you elaborate on this? Why wouldnt I divide it like this?In post 17, Cephrir wrote:My first scalding hot take is that Radja would not have divided the hoods like this and is therefore town
I feel like this is the work of someone up on site culture
I was thinking I would lock you as town if we were in different neighbourhoods, but that didn't happen.
Also hi Cakez, I remember you too!
granted this is partly stemming from my belief that eliming in the small hood was clearly optimal which i'm not so sure about anymore
I suppose that matches into your "veteran player wants to carry the game" strategy though?
I was hoping I'd get some idea about your allegiance here, but nothing really points me in any direction.
I hope I can keep up with the pace of this game. I don't really like reading up too much.
I'm a difficult read. Give it time.
On the one hand, "I'm a difficult read. Give it time" is the opposite of woe-is-me, and I'm pretty sure I'd break out in flaming hives if that's how ceph had responded.
On the other hand, Lucien's gravitas and threat if town is an unknown, I think, so that probably decreases the need/importance for woe-is-me.
On the gripping hand, Ceph hasn't encountered any real headwinds to this point. Maybe I'm using the wrong lens.
Dannflor's 163 Cakez vote raised my eyebrow enough that I switched to ISO mode to see an explanation. I'll save 190 thoughts for when I get there chronologically.
I don't like SCRRRD's 165. Binary take in a shades of grey world. Though I guess it could be confbias if he's town, given his approach looks like team-hunting and he's proceeding from a solve that assumes either Radja or Isis are scum. Very big if, though.
In post 166, Isis wrote:Dannflor is nakedvoting at a good moment for nakedvotingI laughed.
2013In post 175, SirCakez wrote:i want to townread Radja because they're another 2015 person <3
i'm playing like a shitter
I don't hate this post. My thoughts on Pooky's vote & interaction are very much colored by my role PM. Pocketing is a strong maybe, but I can see him getting into bear powah regardless of alignment.In post 188, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:I DISAGREE WITH MY EARLIER READ ON ISIS. I THINK THEY MIGHT BE TOWN NOW. 179 FOR EXAMPLE. GOOD LOOK FOR THEM AND CAKEZ.
CEPHRIR AND DANNFLOR SEEM OKAY. I CAN'T REMEMBER ANY OF DANNFLOR'S POSTS. MAYBE DANNFLOR IS A LITTLE MORE SUS THAN CEPHRIR FOR THAT REASON ALONE.
RADJA CAN BE SCUM. ISIS SAID HE SEEMS CALM AND MY IMPRESSION WAS THAT THEY SEEM TIMID. WEIRD
POOKY MAYBE TRYING TO BUS SOMNUS AND POCKET ME. 130 EXAMPLE OF BUSSING AND POCKETING
IN SUMMARY, IT'S WORTH WATCHING DANNFLOR AND POOKY VERY CLOSELY, AND MY DUMB EARLY SOLVE IS SOMNUS + RADJA
I AM STILL UNOPPOSED TO EXECUTING SOMNUS D1, IN FACT I HIGHLY ENCOURAGE IT
I don't agree with the Radja read.
Re 190 now,@Dannhave you played with scum-Pooky? He didn't start out as a ball of fire in the games I've played with scum-him. Or in the games I modded where he was scum.
Hmm.In post 200, Dannflor wrote:(current tin foil is BEAR/ISIS, where BEAR came into the game, decided Somnus was a likely early elimination and that he would be locked as scum over Lucian, and so decided to start mystifying interactions with buddy)
but probably Isis is town probably
I feel a case of hives coming on.In post 216, Cephrir wrote:I wish that vote were not against me so I could see if I still hate it without the fog of omgus
The bolded bugs me.In post 228, SCRRRDBEAR wrote:In post 226, Dannflor wrote:does it help you guys if I do it in not stream of consciousness format because it looks pretty clear in my head
[lucian, isis]
[pooky, Radja]
-----
[scrrrrdbear]
[somnus]
[cephrir, sircakez]
THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE CAUGHT FLAIL TO MEIn post 227, Dannflor wrote:although I think I like Cephrir's reaction and recent posts a lot
but I think I need to leave the thread and come back to get a better view
ALSO, WHY GROUP BOTH HOODS TOGETHER INSTEAD OF MAKING TWO SEPARATE POES?
loled.In post 239, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Spoiler: Lucian
Spoiler: Isis
Spoiler: SirCakez
Spoiler: DannFlor
Spoiler: Cephrir
Spoiler: Somnus
Spoiler: SBEAR
Spoiler: Radja
Who were you scumreading at this point?
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