Micro 1091 - Prism v. 1L Year [Game Over]

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna try to muster up energy for this game and reread and do more tonight

of the current two wagons I'd definitely prefer Cakez over Ydrasse but there's a few things I want to check re:Cakez. I remember in Eurybia's I eventually had him correctly as scum and I want to reread his ISO from that game and compare it to how it feels here, as well as look at the things I picked up on there

I also felt his treatment of me vs catboi was agenda'd but I was largely operating in a context of scum!catboi, if catboi slot is town I need to reassess whether he's been playing it like scum would a TvT but at the time I wasn't getting that vibe so I just want to reassess there

860 also makes sense to me

I kinda feel like Meuh has fallen off a lot this game and that's starting to worry me

[Dunnstral]

So you think Ydra is the most likely to be scum?
Why are going with "I'm not impressed" as your reasoning here? In addition why aren't you afraid of outting another PR, or do you doubt that Lukewarm is one given your narrow pool?

I am looking at 600, 601, 611, and 612 and decided I didn't really think it was a town argument vs being performative

And I've become less convinced that GL/SirCakez are mafia

As for 'outting another PR', I don't feel comfortable voting for any of the players who have claimed today (Pooky, Meuh, Lukewarm, Rh9 slot)

[Bell]

But you feel comfortable enough to put Ydra who has strongly implied she’s a PR?

[Dunnstral]

I was not considering that.

...You are also voting for Ydrasse

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But you feel comfortable enough to put Ydra who has strongly implied she’s a PR?

Bell do you think ydra!scum would claim VT

[Ydrasse]

more importantly is what would town ydra do because im about to BLOW EVERYONES MINDS
(sorry for not like. playing. i maybe shouldnt have joined because im burned out on this game buuuuut... it is what it is. also ive been playing wow. hi.)

(i will claim if i have to.)

[Dunnstral]

How is WoW going?

[Bell]

1. @Dunn, so you missed her heavy hinting at being a PR?
2. @Pooky, I think in some circumstances she might. But that’s not really the thought I’m having.

I can examine people’s reasoning while being on the wagon ya’know.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

2. @Pooky, I think in some circumstances she might. But that’s not really the thought I’m having.

I have never seen her claim VT as mafia so i just assume she'll make up something if she is mafia

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

tho I guess maybe she did at some point when i didnt notice

[Dunnstral]

I didn't miss it, I wasn't thinking about it. I was thinking about who was most likely to be mafia.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VOTE: Ydrasse

[RH9]

more importantly is what would town ydra do because im about to BLOW EVERYONES MINDS
(sorry for not like. playing. i maybe shouldnt have joined because im burned out on this game buuuuut... it is what it is. also ive been playing wow. hi.)

(i will claim if i have to.)

I don't you think you have to claim, if the current situation continues.
Cakez feels way more likely to end up on E-1 than you IMO.
(GL seems to be leaning towards Cakez over you, and I'm assuming you're not going to self-vote.)

[Prism]

SirCakez has been prodded. He has 24 hours to post before I begin searching for a replacement.

[SirCakez]

Prod received
I think I kind of believe Ydra's PR softing? Enough to where I don't want to vote her today. So that's just leaving me with GL.

[GuiltyLion]

alright here's where I am at

I took a look over again at Cakez ISO in the Eurybia game, the last time I remember playing with him as scum. I do feel he comes across a bit differently here than he did in that game. the main differences I see are:

1) In Eurybia's Curse, scum!Cakez was quick to give out a bunch of early game townreads and stick to them (see: here, an early townread on the worst that was reinforced here, here an early TR on skitter that he got into trouble with but kept doubling down like so, and also notably here he called Meuh vs GL a TvT and stuck to both those reads as well). the worst was a scumbuddy in that game wheres the other players were townies, so one read was to shield a buddy and the others were pocket attempts or efforts to blend in, but across all of them they were fixed somewhat early and he stuck to them somewhat implausibly, giving his play a very agenda'd feel to it. Whereas here I am seeing fewer expressed townreads to begin with - but even the ones he has given he's either waffled on (progressing from 'null town' on elle 294 to a vote/scumread 463) or been hedgey about (catboi 464, Bell "don't know but wouldn't vote today" 683)

2) His pushes in Eurbyia's curse were often grounded in something NAI that he then embellishes to make sound bad. Examples here and here. See his method of 'casing' gamma in this post. I think there's maybe some surface level similarity with his initial Ydra push in this game, but then I look at his later votes and justifications, like the commentary on Luke in 466 or even his sheeping Dunn onto me in 590 and it feels more Rational and Considered, as well as proactive in explaining why he's actually voting where he's voting. I reflexively didn't like 590 because I thought it was a questionably timed sheep of a poor case on me but when I try to remove my own feelings from the situation the means in which he's making his votes doesn't have the same exaggeration to it as it did in his scumgame.

So there's enough here to make me a bit uncertain, from a brief meta comparison. It's possible he's stepped up his game but Pooky also suggesting this doesn't feel like his scumgame is giving me pause.

All that said, I have a nagging concern with this most recent post:

I think I kind of believe Ydra's PR softing? Enough to where I don't want to vote her today. So that's just leaving me with GL.

From her interactions from catboi, I got the sense that Ydra was softing some sort of vengeful ability. If that's what Cakez thinks as well, and he's scum and she's town and telling the truth, this seems like it could be a convenient excuse to avoid voting her and thus putting himself at risk.

More thoughts coming in a second post in a sec

[GuiltyLion]

Now, for some general mech/gamestate thoughts:

At this point I am suspicious about all the claims flying around. We have 2 miller claims, a 2-shot tracker claim, and another softed PR implying some sort of venge.

I am not really a mech based player or particularly good at assessing balance but this feels wonky if all of these claims to be true. Namely the biggest thing to me is that if we assume a town will not eliminate any of these claimed roles on D1, that leaves a pool of 5 possible D1 eliminations of which 2 are mafia. I also don't think it's particularly likely that of two of the three slots we've seriously wagoned (catboi being the third) both have PRs. So I think either one of Luke/Ydrasse is lying or one of the millers is just scum

(as an aside the most hilarious timeline would be if a Pooky/Meuh scumteam decided to yolo gambit both claiming miller at the start... I doubt that's what happened but now I want to try that sometime if I roll scum in a 9p lmao)

VOTE: Ydrasse

I want to hear a full claim. and frankly if she is venge then I don't think it's that harmful if we miseliminate, it basically unlocks a vig shot

[GuiltyLion]

if we had more time I'd want Meuh to face more scrutiny because it feels like she's been on coast for the past few days but I don't know if there's enough time to flashwagon

@Meuh I'd like your thoughts on what I just said re:Cakez since you were in that game as well

[Ydrasse]

i wasnt claiming venge and i think all of this like. stuff about it feels like wolves trying to react to something that literally isn't there
i'm vt
my flavor's catboi. this is why it was funnier before. i also did not want to claim because it's pretty easy now to narrow down what's left

i don't know if i'll have the energy to like pick up later in the game anyways so might as well die now

i'd probably send the team on gl/cakez. there's a lot of quiet people though atp that make me feel uneasy. also like a tracker claim with millers is lol. but that's trying to outguess the mod.

VOTE: gl for posterity and good luck to the wolves who are going to look bad off of this when i flip i will be happily playing wow free from the stress of worrying if i need to post

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm why is catboi a VT, flavorwise

[GuiltyLion]

Ydrasse do you have any thoughts on what I said about Cakez

[Ydrasse]

i dont know honestly in regards to both
i'm very lost this game and defaulting back on him as a scumread
itheres a lot of weird things going on this game that make me go ??

like i think if youre a wolf i think youre just being very Logical and this is what i see sort of thing with the informed eagle eye thing that wolves have
if hes a wolf i think he is playing a different game than he has before but im still put off by before even if we kind of came to an understanding later

i dont know where else to look. meuh? luke? rh9 whelmed me too on entrance but like meh

everything about this feels meh

[GuiltyLion]

do you think scum!catboi would replace out like that?

I feel you on this game feeling meh, you claiming VT instead of a PR means my theory doesn't really work anymore

[GuiltyLion]

also if you think the team is Cakez/GL why did you vote me when Cakez was the larger wagon

[Ydrasse]

yes i do
i'm not keen on interpreting feelings as the reason why i read someone a certain way. i will say i think that town him has more reasoning to do it though than wolf him

and yes it is baffling how that conclusion was reached

p-edit: posterity as i said, im not like super into the Fighting to Be Alive thing per my energy this game and it felt more apt to put my suspicions towards you than him