Micro 1091 - Prism v. 1L Year [Game Over]

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #1350 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:31 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

UNVOTE:
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #1351 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:35 am

Post by Alisae »

hi luke!
i have not slept yet xd i am catching up w/ seasonal anime and bed before I "fix" my sleep schedule.
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Post Post #1352 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:36 am

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I think if I was mafia I would have had enough time to decide if I wanted to hammer or not lol
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Post Post #1353 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:37 am

Post by Alisae »

man i wish i was mafia i woulda done that
that would have been really funny
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Post Post #1354 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:54 am

Post by SirCakez »

I wish we would hammer I don't think there's much more solving to be done here without a flip
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Post Post #1355 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

GL, you making it clear you are keeping up with the thread -- but also ignoring pooky's sure does make me queasy
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Post Post #1356 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@cakez, I mean, I was kind of hoping all of you would weigh in on :

In post 1339, Lukewarm wrote: Does the fact that all of [GL, Dunn, Cakez] have voiced a meuh preference, when given a fairly even choice between Meuh and RH, mean that going for RH first the correct choice?

Because from my pov, that means either:
-pooky is scum,
- RH+Meuh is then scum team, so order does not matter, or
-a member of the scum team just choose Meuh when they could have taken RH (and could have framed it as having liked my case, and wanting to work with the Mechanically Town Player )
In post 1340, Lukewarm wrote: And I just don't see why any if those 3 would feel like they need to bus here, when RH should look like a pretty good miselim option right now.

Like, their vote puts rh at e-1, while every player other then GL has said they would be down for the RH elim.

And with that many people down for the rh elim, it's hard for any one player to look particularly bad for it
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Post Post #1357 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Like, from your PoV Cakez, do you think Meuh is scum, and her partner:


-Dunn, started this Meuh wagon with , while RH was sitting at e-1, and I was leading the charge on RH?
-GL, when forced to choose between partner!Meuh or RH, chose to vote for Meuh (putting her at e-1) while saying zero reasons to think that Meuh is scum, meaning he will get very little credit on a Meuh scum flip?
-Pooky, decided they should double fake claim miller this game?
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Post Post #1358 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:19 am

Post by SirCakez »

I'd rather just lim Meuh there's any number of reasons to explain what's going on with the votes here
I see more explanations for RH9 town then Meuh town
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Post Post #1359 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:21 am

Post by SirCakez »

It could very easily just be Meuh/RH9 too, that seems like the most obvious explanation to me
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Post Post #1360 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:21 am

Post by SirCakez »

But I'd rather do Meuh first because I think that gives us more info then RH9 slot and Meuh is also going to be harder to elim in later game while pretty much everyone SRs the RH9 slot
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I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup.
"

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Post Post #1361 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

What info does a Meuh scumflip give you that a RH/Ali scumflip does not give you?

And what info does a Meuh townflip give you that a RH/Ali townflip does not give you?
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Post Post #1362 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:32 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 1342, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1341, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: I am lowkey kind of concerned this is the second time GuiltyLion has decided to make his vote at the end based on "the other person is probably not scum because X so I'm gonna vote Y"
Which other vote gave you this impression?
i felt guiltylion's ydrasse vote was like mostly about why he thought Cakez was town and not much to do with why Ydrasse was mafia
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
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Post Post #1363 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:01 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1355, Lukewarm wrote: GL, you making it clear you are keeping up with the thread -- but also ignoring pooky's sure does make me queasy
I was waiting for him to respond to your question about it

He's right that's how I voted both times but if I were scum here I would have just hammered RH9 slot when I had the opportunity and not even let a new player into the game, that's all risk and no gain for me as scum

I feel like I keep raising this point about catboi replacing out being really odd and honestly borderline tactical if he's scum and nobody is really addressing it

for that reason I think Meuh is a better lim here
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Post Post #1364 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:04 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I also don't buy Meuhs claim of mindmelding with RH9 and her going silent when he was almost limmed
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #1365 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:18 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1359, SirCakez wrote: It could very easily just be Meuh/RH9 too, that seems like the most obvious explanation to me
Is that because you scumread both players or are you seeing associatives between them

I think Meuh scum doesn't just let her buddy get limmed like that
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #1366 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:49 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1363, GuiltyLion wrote: I feel like I keep raising this point about catboi replacing out being really odd and honestly borderline tactical if he's scum and nobody is really addressing it
I try my best to treat rep outs as NAI.

Catboi was frustrated with this game, and was not enjoying it, so he repped out. And that can be true for either alignment, without it being a "tactical" rep out.

That being said, I also had an immediate thought that this could make him town, so I understand why you feel the way that you do.

When looking at RH, on his own, I think it is scum.

And when I look at Catboi, prior to his rep out, I went from null->lean scum.
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Post Post #1367 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1275, SirCakez wrote: I'd vote any of GL/RH9/Meuh
In post 1292, SirCakez wrote: Yeah I'm down to yeet RH9 slot. I think I'm still voting there too?
In post 1330, SirCakez wrote: VOTE: meuh whatever i feel like this is the best shot of hitting scum rn
GL vs RH9 feels like a coinflip
Cakez, walk me though these three posts being back to back in your iso.

Because you go from, they are both even with no preference (but voting RH) -> reaffirming your RH vote -> Meuh is the best elim [to the point of arguing against the RH elim] across these three posts.
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Post Post #1368 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1365, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1359, SirCakez wrote: It could very easily just be Meuh/RH9 too, that seems like the most obvious explanation to me
Is that because you scumread both players or are you seeing associatives between them

I think Meuh scum doesn't just let her buddy get limmed like that
Meh. A lot of people don't like going hard towards defending their partners, because they think it will make them look worse then it really does most of the time.

Quietly hoping that the wagon will lose steam on its own is not all that uncommon for scum to do imo.

I don't think that RH+Meuh is my top choice atm, but I have not ruled it out.
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Post Post #1369 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 8:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I think that I am committing to the idea that RH is the better elim.

The transition from RH e-1, to Meuh e-1 was too smooth and easy. Not a hint of resistance from anyone but me - actually, every single one of the potential Meuh partners happily encouraging the Meuh elim > the RH elim.

That transition feels like the scum team either:
-Does not care which one goes over because both are town.
-Prefer the Meuh elim, beacuse Meuh is town.
-Is exactly Meuh+RH, and therefore could not influence the transition basically at all.

None of those worlds have scum meuh / town RH, which makes me think that RH/Ali is the more correct play.
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Post Post #1370 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:50 am

Post by Meuh »

In post 1360, SirCakez wrote: But I'd rather do Meuh first because I think that gives us more info then RH9 slot and Meuh is also going to be harder to elim in later game while pretty much everyone SRs the RH9 slot
In what world am I a hard late game elim???
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Post Post #1371 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:58 am

Post by Meuh »

I was gonna reply to Luke's whole thing like "RH9 is town so scum just don't care" but I'm less and less confident on that
When Dunn asked for the mindmeld I had with RH9 and I went back to find it, I found that ISO definitely had a lot more echoing other people's thoughts and doesn't have a lot unique he's bringing to the table. Which kind of explains why I felt mindmeld, he just agreed with whatever other people were saying :dead:
and Dunn being the one leading the charge on the push for me probably points to that being a possible team at this point
Not sure about the Cakez/RH9 scum team chance here though.
I found the Catboi replace out NAI at the time and I don't really see a reason to change my mind on that (nor do I like reading people based on rep outs)
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Post Post #1372 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:26 am

Post by Meuh »

Spoiler: Dunn/RH9 slot
In post 249, catboi wrote:
In post 243, elle (1L) wrote: shaping view of game around assuming millers are town seems ? to me
miller claims in current site meta are town at a rate well above random (not even counting the very silly normal Dunnstral just linked) and reading into the personality of the players claiming and determining they aren't lying is pretty basic, it's not dissimilar to evaluating most other claims really. It's just based on whether you think the person is likely to be lying or not.

That being said the logic I used for it is trivial to fake as scum and I would probably play around the claims exactly the same way as scum, because it's easy to make that sort of logical point. Dunn townreading me there for it was puzzling but sometimes town make weird reads so I'm not going to do anything about it.
In post 251, catboi wrote:
In post 240, Dunnstral wrote: I don't think that will be very helpful for me so would feel guilty making you put in substantial effort to do so. If somebody else thinks this would be useful they can jump in.

I don't think it will be helpful because I don't put a lot of weight into saying you would do things differently when we are this early into the game, and you are the one describing things and there is bias there. I think that mafia fake claiming millers is unlikely, and despite what catboi says I do think a track record of not fake claiming miller makes it more likely to not be fake in this game as well. And meuh was the one who counter claimed so they took an active role and I agree with the thought that mafia are less likely to do so, especially when somebody else is already claiming that role. So that makes me think the millers are town, and
your reaction to them reminded me of when I played the mini normal recently and the mafia made a similar argument against the miller claims
.

And I also am reading catboi and bell as town, so that has me looking at Elle (1L), Ydrasse, SirCakez, and GuiltyLion. And you Elle (1L) are the one who has given the most content to discuss. I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.
Thought push on elle was maybe a little unfair but I like the bolded line, fakeable but it's a decent thought.
In post 331, catboi wrote: I acknowledge as being correct on some level about the word choices Meuh seeming scummy, I'm just...not sure it actually comes from scum. It's a
plausible
read from Ydrasse, at any rate.

I think from Cakez is a very generic sounding read that does nothing for me, but I think he comes off okay in his tiff with Ydrasse, and I'd even lean town on it? Just my feeling that the passion is real rather than a show being put on by mafia. Could be wrong, but I don't really feel like he's a good vote on Day 1 because he tends to get mis-elimmed as town a lot.
In post 311, Dunnstral wrote: Would Ydrasse, as mafia, feel the need to push SirCakez early on, rather than building up connections?
It's not impossible
if
she felt threatened by cakez scumreading her and felt the need to push back on an accuser before she became a wagon - part of why I squinted at her accusing the game of shifting momentum toward her was that it felt like it could be an unconscious guilt thing - when you're scum you tend to perceive your actions as ore suspicious than they are and get worried that people are going to start pushing you and it felt like an exaggeration of reality.

Or she could just be a paranoid townie. I'm hardly committed to my current vote.

(also got a laugh out of me)
In post 332, catboi wrote: I don't really have a read on elle but I'm not opposed to voting her. I don't have thoughts on Dunn having a read on me because I have almost no success reading people off how they read me. I don't think it's impossible for a townie to see someone reading the game the same way as them and call it town even if it was fast, but in terms of his other content it's been unobjectionable but doesn't scream town to me.
In post 477, catboi wrote:
In post 459, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 453, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: like gls thoughts on catboi exactly mirror my own. so they make sense to me. i just dont bother to question dflors townread cuz i think its tactically bad.
I do not think that it is unreasonable to not be swayed by Dunn's reasons. I wasn't. I still don't have a read on catboi.

It also did not bother me that he asked Dunn to explain the read, that is also reasonable. My issue was where GL went after that.

It did not read to me, like GL was trying to divine if Dunn's read was a plausibly genuine read or not, and therefore whether having that read was scummy or not. At least, I did not see anything about that coming from GL's posts following Dunn's explanation.

Instead, it seemed like he pivoted into trying to convince Dunn not to have that read. And he was not even arguing that Cartboi is scum. Just that Dunn should not have a town read because it is
possible
for scum to replicate it.

I don't see why a townie would actually care if Dunn has a day 1 town read on Catboi, especially one Dunn openly said he is not married to
Spoiler:
I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.


But there is scum motivation to stop people from forming too many town reads.
Maybe I am ascribing too much to the unsaid, but I thought it was pretty plausible that GL's questioning of Dunn was for exactly the reason of figuring out if it was genuine or not.
In post 482, catboi wrote: hm, okay

having a tracker in a setup with (potential) millers is kind of comedic if it's true, but I don't feel like eliminating a PR claim on Day 1. Still feels like there's probably a scum between Luke and GL but it's not something that needs immediate resolution in my opinion.

VOTE: Dunn

I guess I land here: not really strongly townread by anyone but also not getting pressured.
In post 502, catboi wrote:
In post 488, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 482, catboi wrote: VOTE: Dunn

I guess I land here: not really strongly townread by anyone but also not getting pressured.
That does not mean I am mafia.
True it doesn't but I don't townread you. If I'm wrong on you then either I'm wrong on cakez (entirely possible but I'm personally not going to vote him Day 1), or someone else is getting misread by people.
In post 506, catboi wrote:
In post 505, Lukewarm wrote: I think that I am convincing myself that GL is town, and that catboi is positioning to eliminate him after killing me for being a tracker.

Both because he linked the two of us together in a way that seems disingenuous, but also in the same post of doing that just side stepped eliminating inside the pair entirely for the day.

Especially when reading , and his pivot into Dunn feels toothless, like it was just The Best Option Left. Not like he even thought his thoughts on Dunn were Good.
I literally just said we shouldn't vote you Day 1 so I don't know where you're getting the idea I'm trying to eliminate you. I would only push to eliminate you if you weren't NKed and after a mass claim your claim was one we decided didn't really fit in the setup. You're right I'm trying to eliminate outside you two, but I don't think you're ever scum together, so there's almost certainly a scum outside you. In the event I'm wrong on there being a scum between you two then voting outside you is even more beneficial to the town for obvious reasons.

I don't know where you'd get the idea I'd be able to effortlessly chain-elim GL and then you or why you think I'd lay my roadmap for a path to victory out in the thread Day 1, that's totally unnecessary as scum when I can just go 1 step at a time.

I would agree with your assessment that I'm not being exceptionally forceful with my vote on Dunn. Why should I be? I have no particular reason to believe my reads are highly accurate, and when I try to force a case too much it ends up being wrong. If I really wanted to I could bullshit a case in 45 minutes on how Dunn is obvious scum and needs to die today but it wouldn't mean I believed it or that it's more likely to be right. Why do I have to have a scumread I feel confident about on Day 1?
In post 511, catboi wrote: ughhh i butchered the quote blocks i'm sorry, EBWOP for readability

In post 508, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 506, catboi wrote: I literally just said we shouldn't vote you Day 1 so I don't know where you're getting the idea I'm trying to eliminate you. I would only push to eliminate you if you weren't NKed
-
I don't know where you'd get the idea I'd be able to effortlessly chain-elim GL and then you
I was not saying that I felt like you were trying to eliminate me. I specifically meant night kill me, and then use my town flip to elim GL.
Lmao

I mean, I get it, but that's still very silly.
In post 509, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 506, catboi wrote: Why do I have to have a scumread I feel confident about on Day 1?
My issue is that you seemed more confident in there being scum between me and GL, yet chose Dunn.

Your stated position is that you GL is one of the lower people in your reads, and that his flip would give you insight into me, so that seems like the direction that would be more natural.

But you didn't go that direction. Instead, you voted you weaker read, and punted the Luke/GL pair down the road.
I have other means of getting insight into you besides voting out GL. I felt at the time you were more likely to be scum than him so I wasn't keen on voting him out. (But maybe I'm wrong on you!). If push came to shove I might vote him, but as I've said, if there's a scum outside you two it makes perfect sense to me to try to find that scum first. If I vote one of you out and it's wrong that's bad, if I'm wrong on both of you it's probably a game-loing read. So to me it doesn't hurt to vote outside. Night actions/claims will potentially help clear you up, if we manage to flip scum outside you then we can see if that scum makes sense as a teammate with either of you.

I wouldn't say I was more confident on GL being scum, that doesn't accurately reflect my position. My read on Dunn isn't very strong, it's just the best I have currently.
In post 520, catboi wrote:
In post 514, Bell wrote: I find catboi's take on Luke's interactions with the tvt thing surprisingly persuasive. I'm kind of wondering about how they're addressing push back though. They respond differently to pressure than I do though.
Don't know what you mean in particular by this.As far as my response goes, I'm trying to be more communicative for the most part. I think Luke's pushback on me is extremely goofy but it's not setting off the same "absolute bullshit" flags the last two times I saw him as scum. I'm bad at reading people who scumread me though, as I've stated. I can't tell if they're being reasonable or not because I'm biased on knowing my alignment. I usually just reflexively OMGUS if they're being annoying enough.
In post 517, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 506, catboi wrote: Dunn is obvious scum
I believe in my cat
LMAO you're evil for this one
In post 536, catboi wrote: {pooky, bell, meuh}
{cakez}
{Luke, GL}
{Dunn, Ydrasse}
In post 539, catboi wrote:
In post 505, Lukewarm wrote: I think that I am convincing myself that GL is town, and that catboi is positioning to eliminate him after killing me for being a tracker.

Both because he linked the two of us together in a way that seems disingenuous, but also in the same post of doing that just side stepped eliminating inside the pair entirely for the day.

Especially when reading , and his pivot into Dunn feels toothless, like it was just The Best Option Left. Not like he even thought his thoughts on Dunn were Good.
Luke, I want to revisit this. You're scumreading me here because my vote is "toothless", because I lack passion behind it.

Now, GL gets a pass for this because he doesn't know my scumgame and is making the common fallacy that me lacking energy is a scumtell. But you - you've seen my scumgame. Do you think I, at any time as scum, come across as dispassionate? As lacking the will to put conviction behind a push?
In post 547, catboi wrote:
In post 545, Bell wrote: Dunn, I will move on you if you don’t suggest a better alternative in a better way.

I say as if power is something I have over anyone.
Image
In post 599, catboi wrote: I think GL accusing Cakez of chainsawing me is moving into "hard to fathom as being the real belief of a town player" territory. It's enough in the territory that I would be okay with voting him today, because his arguments have gotten continually worse, and look more like he's trying to "score points" with every attack rather than attempting to discern a perspective or actually investigate alignments. (I think even if he's town the way he's playing right is outright anti-town, not because he's reading me wrong but because of him tunneling in a single-minded fashion where everything someone does only adds further fuel to the fire. I think if allowed to live he will harm the town regardless of his alignment. That's simply how I've come to view this type of play. I've been guilty of it many times in the past (no pun intended), and part of the reason I've been playing restrained this game is to try to curb that tendency. I think he absolutely should not be allowed leadership/agency in this game).

Luke is simply mad I dared to suspect him. He is probably town and gets resolved mechanically either way. I wish he would not play so emotionally, but at his core he's still the same newbie I flew off the handle at for deathtunneling me a couple years ago.

I think Ydrasse's contributions to the game have overall been minimal to non-existant. Her main reads have been to defend elle for getting flustered, and OMGUSing Cakez. The elle read is not really logical because scum get flustered all the time, and instead comes across as white-knighting a player who was an early push. The Cakez read is entirely reactive and can easily be scum motivated. Beyond that, she shaded me for suggesting I'd be okay voting elle, and then shaded luke for calling her town. This is all play that is merely reacting to major events going on in the thread and responding to them, it takes very little effort. It doesn't feel investigative, like she's actually parsing the game and trying to figure anything out - rather she's simply commenting on big things or things that mention her. I think she is actively procrastinating on contributing to the thread and this is more likely to come from scum who is struggling to manufacture content.

I think the reasons that have been given for her being town are not very good. Guiltylion is suggesting her feeling concerned about the thread vibes being against her is a towntell. I think this is not convincing because it's ultimately a "vibe-based" read that is related t attitude, and that thing can be faked, or maybe she was just legitimately feeling threatened. Dunn says she is more charismatic as mafia early - again, this is a vibe-based read that is really not convincing. Luke is town reading her because she made a joke on page 1 and because she is defending his slot. I think this is obviously terrible reasoning n face value. Early game gutreads are not very likely to be accurate, and townreading someone simply for defending you means you are highly likely to fall into a pocket. Scum defend players who otherwise look to be uncontested wagons all the time. I think he is biased because he disliked being run up so quickly upon entering the game (which to be fair is an entirely understandable response), and so has latched on to anyone he saw as being protective of him.

That's my reasoning for Ydrasse being scum, it could be wrong, I don't think my read accuracy is particularly special. I would still prefer to flip her or GL if I'm voted out today.

---

It's very hard for me to explain how I'm reading pooky but I simply get the feel he is being genuine every time he posts, the way he spoke about me felt unrestrained and like it was coming from a town perspective. Similarly, Bell getting irritated with Cakez for the E-1 thing felt real and he keeps making his contributions that are slightly snarky but insightful. I buy what he's doing as town motivated

Meuh slightly less confident on but nothing she's posted has felt like t was not from a genuine perspective to me, and I still lean on the miller claim as being +town.

Dunn I had more as potential scum for POE reasons and some fear he may have been buddying me, but historically I'm not great at reading him. I thought there was simply a chance he was being overlooked.

As for Cakez, I wish I had an answer for why he felt like voting me before writing this post but I still felt like the response he had to pressure was towny in terms of how he was seemingly challenging people about voting him. I am also historically not great at reading him so my confidence level is not high, but that is the best I can manage. I think if Ydrasse flips mafia he is basically always town and should be treated as an innocent child.
In post 613, catboi wrote:
In post 608, Dunnstral wrote: catboi you have paragraphs for why you suspect other people which I read and seems pretty convincing to me. Except for the part where you say we should eliminate "regardless of alignment" - that part I am not a fan of. And then you have sentences for me, saying poe, which doesn't even make sense if you have two other, better scumreads, and then "overlooked" which is based on what other people are doing.
I guess, yeah. I realize the justification for that read isn't great but I was basically spilling out as stream of consciousness, and that was all that came to mind. Maybe that means I should reconsider you, but I don't have a lot of things I can really point to that says anything about your alignment. I often don't really know how to read you and I don't think you've done anything obviously towny to me this game - which doesn't make you scum necessarily, I just can't really clear you.

As for the "regardless of alignment" thing - it's partly salty on my part, no way around it, but it's also a theory I have. I think when a town player is really overconfident and trying to aggressively steer the game, they're usually wrong and usually harmful. On self-reflection, that's where all my worst moments come from. I've witnessed other players run games into the ground by being ego-driven and steamrolling everyone who opposed them. I think GL is tipping close to that in terms of how he's handling me. (Luke also does this but like I can't really suggest policy killing him because I think he's probably town)

To be clear though I think this is an entirely viable model for scumplay and if GL as scum felt I was getting too threatening I could see him taking advantage of Luke here given he'd already laid he groundwork for pushing me.
In post 618, catboi wrote: Dunn can be town because he seems to earnestly care about convincing me I'm wrong on him when there's a chance I get voted out today, and I think if he's mafia he wouldn't care as much about trying to persuade me.

This is an experimental read I just made up, but I like the logic behind it.
In post 619, catboi wrote:
In post 617, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 600, Ydrasse wrote: after literally just playing against me as mafia feel like he should be more aware that this isnt my mafia game and also p sure he made a post earlier where hes like "when do i not have passion as a wolf" or something and like i can think of multiple times before where hes in fact been "down" or lower energy in games when it was beneficial so it's a nonpoint.
catboi, what do you think of this? Do you think it is a fair assessment?
The latter part is plausibly true but it was a game where I was struggling to keep up with a bunch of hyperposters and was AtE'ing to survive, which isn't really true in comparison to this.

I don't think her posting is meaningfully different from what I've seen of her scumgame, but like I'm not that good at this game so I could easily be wrong
In post 643, catboi wrote:
In post 642, catboi wrote: If scum succeed at pushing me out today (which I now think probably happens because I underestimated how fickle certain people are), you two have to take charge of the game because it's a shitshow and I don't think anyone else knows how to find mafia
oh and work with dunn I guess - I'm still cautious about it but I think my last read on him makes sense and he knows how to cooperate
In post 673, catboi wrote:
In post 649, Dunnstral wrote: catboi you have 2 votes on you, you're not about to be eliminated
Both Luke and ydrasse are clearly willing to vote for me, cakez was toying with the possibility of voting me for ???reasons???. It's not hard to read the room and see there's support for eliminating me becaus I've pissed off half the game. I think you're the only one actually townreading me.

(If I squint and tilt my head, cakez so readily accepting the possibility of voting me when it became viable looks opportunistic. Maybe Bell is right there and I'm wrong, he has good instincts a lot of the time, I really don't know. You should probably trust someone else's judgment over mine).

I just...lack the will or the enthusiasm to fight off a wagon on me. I probably could do it but I'd have to get really mean to make it happen and I'm trying not to play that way. I don't think I'm so valuable to the town that I have to stay alive at all costs, I'm just a VT and I don't think my reads are anything special. Also when people tunnel me it more or less completely removes any chance I have of getting good reads, because I can't figure out if people pushing me are scum or just tunneled.

I see Luke replied to me but honestly I'm on the verge of passing out, I just wanted to address this before I went to sleep. hope this is reasonably coherent.
In post 815, RH9 wrote: Preliminary reads based off what I've read so far:
Meuh — Probably town for claim; I don't think she would fakeclaim something like that
Pooky — Probably also town for claim
Dunn — I like their analysis, so maybe town
Luke — Null; I thought his predecessor was nullish and I haven't really caught up to when he starts posting
Bell — Null; Seems pretty chill, not sure what to make of it as I tend to associate town!Bell with being somewhat aggressive
GL — I've liked his early posts, so maybe nulltown?
Ydra — I feel like from her interactions with Cakez, they feel unaligned
Cakez — I tend to SR him because he usually feels scummy to me; I'm going to try to avoid confbiasing myself this time
In post 819, RH9 wrote: Reading Luke's posts, I feel like his argument with catboi over the Dunn vote actually feel kinda towny. In that, it feels like he has genuine concern over catboi's motivations. And his and feel like he's trying to be nuanced, which doesn't really seem like something scum would do? Especially, since he could've take advantage of the increasing pressure.
But I'm leaning towards moving Luke up to my TRs.
In post 978, RH9 wrote:
In post 961, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 910, RH9 wrote:
In post 893, Ydrasse wrote: i wasnt claiming venge and i think all of this like. stuff about it feels like wolves trying to react to something that literally isn't there
i'm vt
my flavor's catboi. this is why it was funnier before. i also did not want to claim because it's pretty easy now to narrow down what's left
I think this makes sense.
I don't think it makes them any more likely to be town though
True.
It's just that I thought Ydra's earlier statements made sense with the flavour claim.
In post 1028, RH9 wrote:
In post 1027, Dunnstral wrote: I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.
This is a good idea.
In post 1048, RH9 wrote:
In post 1047, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1030, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 1027, Dunnstral wrote: I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.
i think luke should claim last in case he catches someone in a lie
Oh, maybe I should have fully read before I responded lol
At least, Dunn is confirmed to be a PR now.
In post 1056, RH9 wrote: TBH after Dunn claims, we should get Cakez to claim what PR he exactly is.
In post 1072, RH9 wrote: P-edit: TBH Beholder is a rare enough role that if Dunn actually is it, I'm going to question if it's a trueclaim.
In post 1085, RH9 wrote:
In post 1084, Dunnstral wrote: I'm a 1-shot doctor

Flavor is Student Life's Mental Wellness Dogs

I targeted Lukewarm last night
That checks out, I guess?
In post 1095, RH9 wrote:
In post 1094, Dunnstral wrote: I'm in co-op Baldur's gate, hence my terseness

I thought it strange that RH9 went straight to Beholder before I could claim my role
Cakez (I think?) was asking for plausible scum roles that would target Doc.
Beholder was one of them.
In post 1097, RH9 wrote:
In post 1096, Dunnstral wrote: I do think is a weird perspective to have if you are a VT. I get that you will say that it slipped your mind but how?
I said 2 VTs as a reaction test to see if scum would take the bait and treat it as a slip, which seemed to have happened.
I feel like it might've gotten a bit out of hand, though.
In post 1146, RH9 wrote:
In post 1142, Meuh wrote: One of my initial thoughts was that scum could have neapolitan, and that a miller would mess with their results rather than cop results, but that seems kinda silly? With no cop claim, I'm inclined to think they're just named townies at this point? No clue if this lines up with what Prism would do as a mod though
So, it'd figure one of Dunn/Cakez/GL isn't telling the truth, then?
Because Luke had no way of faking a result on Dunn, given he claimed first.
In post 1160, RH9 wrote:
In post 1155, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: also his approach is not as townie as the other two
As in after the massclaim?
Because, you could be right on this.
The way Cakez has interacted with claims does feel townier than Dunn's.
(Though, I could biased in that I feel like if all PR claims are town, that means Mafia's basically hoping Luke wastes his last track on the PR claims. And that'd have to mean scum are doing pretty well at not getting any attention.)
In post 1170, RH9 wrote:
In post 1164, GuiltyLion wrote: I agree Luke's claim has to be town at this point because there's not enough town power otherwise

I'm thinking either

1) Cakez just trueclaimed his role as a scum RB
or
2) Dunn is some kind of scum investigative that targeted Luke

what's extra wonk is that neither Cakez nor Dunn see any issue with eachother's claims

I think at least to Dunn's credit he is just coming off kind of obtuse whereas Cakez pivoted from "scum in the PRs" to just immediately accepting Dunn's claim - feels like he may be strategically positioning and not wanting to make an enemy out of Dunn
This is a good point.
Dunn has been consistently been saying 'PRs are Town' (for reasons which I still don't agree with) but Cakez has only really been 'scum in RH9/GL' but he went from 'scum in Meuh/Dunn/Luke' to 'scum prob just Meuh' (given he seems to be TRing Pooky).
Eh. Maybe this really is a scum!Cakez world, after all.
Though, if Cakez is scum, then I'm stuck on who's his partner other than maybe the Miller claims.
In post 1176, RH9 wrote: I think rn I'm at one of Cakez/GL is scum along with one of the Millers.
P-edit: Maybe it could be GL/Dunn.
In post 1177, RH9 wrote: Eh.
Now I think about it, Cakez only makes sense as scum with Pooky.
In post 1178, RH9 wrote: And I don't think Pooky is scum.
In post 1179, RH9 wrote: At least, Pooky has came across as genuinely concerned town quite a bit.
In post 1205, RH9 wrote:
In post 1188, Lukewarm wrote: I think the only way I live to tomorrow (to bring my second result) is if dunn is town, and 2-shot, and lied about being 1 shot in order to bait the kill into me.

Which is honestly the smart way for him to play being 2 shot.

And kind of smarter then a 1-shot dunn true claiming being 1-shot. (Actually 1-shot dunn should have claimed x-shot).

And dunn should probably not react to this post either.
I don't think Dunn is a gambity sort of player?
I might be wrong but the way Dunn's been playing makes me think it's unlikely he's 2-shot.
At best, we can hope Cakez is town and has not yet used his rb.
In post 1210, RH9 wrote:
In post 1206, Dunnstral wrote: If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm
I think you trueclaimed.
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.
In post 1243, RH9 wrote:
In post 1214, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1211, RH9 wrote:
In post 1207, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs
I guess this is OK with me.
what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lol
Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.
In post 1244, RH9 wrote:
In post 1226, Lukewarm wrote: Dunn, don't you see?

He thinks you could be a true claiming, scum-aligned, 1-shot doctor (in a game with no Vigilante) who used their 1 shot to protect the town tracker.

Image
That is not what I've been saying.
I'm saying that Dunn is probably trueclaiming the 1-shot aspect if he is really a town doc.
In post 1248, RH9 wrote:
In post 1225, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1210, RH9 wrote:
In post 1206, Dunnstral wrote: If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm
I think you trueclaimed.
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.
I can't tell if you are calling me town here, but if you are I feel like you were speculating that I may have been mafia earlier
Well. I felt like you could be scum, due to the fact that Cakez barely makes sense as scum with half of everybody but like you and Pooky.
And Pooky hasn't felt like scum to me, so reasonably this limits scum to you/GL/Cakez/Meuh.
However, I have been thinking that Cakez can actually be Town and I've been mindmelding with Meuh, leaving the scumpool to you/GL.
On the other hand, your play if town, makes more sense coming from a world where you trueclaimed than one where you're playing elaborate mindgames like Luke has been suggesting.
In post 1249, RH9 wrote:
In post 1243, RH9 wrote:
In post 1214, SirCakez wrote:
In post 1211, RH9 wrote:
In post 1207, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs
I guess this is OK with me.
what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lol
Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.
OK.
Maybe this is going to end up with what you've been saying.
In post 1277, RH9 wrote:
In post 1270, Dunnstral wrote: To expand on my point in 1266, it is weird to me that RH9 has an impression of me that I don't gambit, but does not seem to be considering that when thinking I could be mafia. I think that if RH9 is being truthful, they should look at Luke's track result on me and conclude that I am more likely town than not, because to them I would have to be gambitting to be mafia.

Now that I am thinking about this, they also very quickly jumped to saying I might fake claim beholder at the start of the day. Doesn't this also contradict their thinking here, since that would be a gambit?
I
did not
suggest you fakeclaim Beholder.
Stop reframing the narrative.
I suggested Beholder is a
plausible scum role
you could have and
target Luke with
.
And anyways scum claiming doctor when tracked to the tracker is not gambity at all.
It's just what scum would do, since it's the most believable claim.

I wanna delve into this more at some point but reading through these interactions, I think this is a very plausible team here tbh
Catboi does scumread and vote Dunn early on but then throws out an "experimental read" on Dunn being town that he sticks to, and he has no problem shifting to Ydra instead
RH9 starts with a soft townread on Dunn, then shifts to questioning him more when the thread leans that way (notably with Pooky saying he was the most likely PR to be lying and me pushing Dunn), but is also willing to consider Cakez actually being scum instead when GL brings it up. Issue is that a lot of RH9's reads were influenced by the whims of the thread, so I don't really think his shifts here look super bad in terms of being paired with Dunn (though it definitely doesn't unpair them)
RH9 slot/Cakez doesn't really make sense to me either, Cakez' interactions with both Catboi and RH9 don't look paired at all to me
and I'm doubtful on GL/RH9 or Pooky/RH9 for mech reasons (although the latter is a bit more feasible)
Maybe that's just it
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Meuh
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Post Post #1373 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:28 am

Post by Meuh »

In post 1294, Dunnstral wrote: VOTE: RH9 E-1
In post 1295, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: im so tempted to yeet this without a replacement
In post 1296, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: but what if it blows up in my face
In post 1300, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: wolfy poppins
In post 1301, Meuh wrote: Pretty sure that was a cat, not a wolf :good:
In post 1302, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: ok ms catwolf
In post 1303, Dunnstral wrote: VOTE: Meuh
Yeah maybe that's just it
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Post Post #1374 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1372, Meuh wrote: RH9 slot/Cakez doesn't really make sense to me either, Cakez' interactions with both Catboi and RH9 don't look paired at all to me
Why / which ones?

That is a pairing I have toyed around with in my head some recently
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