A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Staeg]

vote: Starbuck

P-edit: tierce, you're wrong, vigs have a much lower % of hitting scum than lynches, so yeah.

[Staeg]

Salamance scum - that jump on the feysal wagon was horrendous: he chooses him instead of voting him, he smacks on RVS-esque commentary and then asks something that was already asked (with multiple question marks, mind you).
Starbuck scum - mostly what was already said. The initial I-thought-about-it-but-really-didn't about the Chooses, followed by more of that, followed by not reading the argument closely at all.

I didn't read the feysal thingy as a scumslip at all, and mostly what Regfan said in this regard.

Pappums town.
NachoPlum probtown.
Regfan probtown.

unvote
vote: salamance

Choose: Starbuck

Also wow there's a lot of people whose names start with S this game.

[Staeg]

...I'm not liking stefan's posting at all, but it's only gut and I'm not sure if it's because of the language barrier or not

[Staeg]

Salamance scum - that jump on the feysal wagon was horrendous: he chooses him instead of voting him, he smacks on RVS-esque commentary and then asks something that was already asked (with multiple question marks, mind you).

This is why.
BBmolla admitted that his vote is sheeping and only sheeping. He didn't try to pull any fancy "BUT WHAT IF I MISSED SOMETHING????????/?" Granted, he's not town for it, but I'm not assigning him any scumpoints, either.
Dolorous Edd is just... wrong. He was the first to point it, when there were no actual votes on Feysal.

[Staeg]

This thread -

The time you took finding this picture could've been used for catching up.

Also, to clarify things about starbuck: the VT claim is a not a towntell, for fuck's sake. It wasn't even accompanied by a flavorname. Some may say "But she selfvoted! And claimed VT! Scum wouldn't suicide like that!" and they would be right. They wouldn't. The problem is, the only way to call their bluff is to choose/lynch them, which, guess what, is not happening. Her confusion on the Choose thing... I guess that I could remotely see why it's considered as a towntell, but uhh, the "Why are you choosing this early???" means that she at the very least took the time to think about what the choose is/why are people doing it, but the following posts re: choosing do not reflect this.

[Staeg]

The time you took finding this picture could've been used for catching up.

Who said I wasn't? Who says I don't have a handy cataloged reaction image folder (who doesn't?!)

Pro-tip: I wasn't catching up.

So, then, commentary?

[Staeg]

Snowstorm, any other commentary?

[Staeg]

I actually will comment on this - I was following the thread last night until about the point where people jumped on Feysal's junk, but I was of the opinion that our choice was basically a second lynch. Now anyone saying "Well, let's use it on someone suspicious", if they're suspicious (you think they're scum) and you've succeeded with catching scum even (unlikely IMO), scum is going to shoot whoever the hell they want, not who we (the collective town majority opinion) wants to shoot.

Okay, so, you don't have ANY opinion of anything that happened until the Feysal stuff. However, what you said here is obvious and pretty much useless, so...?

I am still not really sure about why anyone is saying that the person we choose should be the one choosing whom he vigs.

[Staeg]

I'm not sure I'm following you. You're saying that you agree that we should use it as a second lynch, but you also want to have control over who the chosen person will vig?

No, I'm saying if we're using it as a second lynch (smart), we can't expect to control who the extra kill is. We could certainly wish for it, and it's likely it'll be a mislynch (just based on past experience), but it's likely then that a directed kill will also be a failed attempt to hit scum, so I say we use it as a regular lynch and just don't try to direct it.

Why shouldn't we try to direct it?

[Staeg]

Choose: Shadow1psc

Dear God, it's like reading what I'm like as scum.

MoI I'm here

Why the choose instead of vote?

PE: do explain

[Staeg]

Aha, so molla's town.

[Staeg]

I dont see the slip...

Molla, your gambit is cute and all, but how is this not dying with fire

[Staeg]

Unvote Vote Dolorous Edd

what?

[Staeg]

Re: flavor on the sending, it's only flavor. No matter who we send, they die and they get a 1-shot vig.

[Staeg]

Re: townread on bbm, I'll elaborate if it's needed further down the line, but it's mostly gut.

[Staeg]

Stefan, it's a theme game. I wouldn't put it beyond faradaynexus(anyoneelse) to word the role PMs in such a fashion. Alternatively, the scumteam could have a small size that indicates multiball, or even some PR that would only ever make sense in multiball (like a scum sane cop).

[Staeg]

Okay, um. While there was a GW2 stresstest yesterday this thread acquired 2 pages within 3 hours so I said fuckit, woke up to find 2 more and now there's another 2
I'm at the start of P13 and would easily switch my vote to Hyperion.

[Staeg]

I'm mildly... not suspicious, I guess, but... troubled? by the fact that snowstorm doesn't want to read the previous games to "keep an objective PoV," when he has already played with about 1/3 of the playerlist on the Westeros forums.

Re: Regfan's 345 - again, for the millionth time I ask: how is posting 10 posts of 50 words worse than 2 of 250?

Alek's entrance to the thread reeks of bad (no, tyene, it's not a towntell because someone else already got the brownie points for it), and shadow's reaction to said bad was, um, actually scummy

Okay, for the last time (and sorry if someone has actually answered, but I don't think they have): why would we not use the Choose as a second AND third lynch? I know, the second one can hit scum, I know, the assassin can be dumb and do their own thing even if town, but why does it hurt to try?



So, to sum it up, the following players should be dead come massclaim day (preferably within the next 4 days):
Salamence
Dolorous Edd
Hyperion
Shadow

I would still like starbuck to die (who STILL hasn't nameclaimed), but I'm more or less alone there.

unvote
Vote: Hyperion

[Staeg]

Why should starbuck claim at all? He already claimed VT, what more is there for you to find out?

I would like to know why you want DE, Hyperion, and Shadow dead, because I am sure I know you want me dead because of my shitty LyLo play, which is more biased than actual scummyness.

Her rolename. You know, when you're doing that whole "waa I'm a vanilla townie just

lynch

choose me already" I would expect you to nameclaim at the very least (the thing is, I'm seeing a disconnect between her resigning herself to death and not claiming a rolename - which brings me to the point that she might have been coached to do this without the proper details).

DE, because of alek's entrance posts. Hyperion, because every single thing that he's said has A) been said at least twice already and/or B) is crap. Shadow, because of his posts before he went into /emo state.

I'm reading SnowStorm as scum, but I want to interject here a bit because it makes sense to me why he wouldn't. At Westeros, we always play behind alts. There are very very few times we play altless. We also have quite strict meta rules. We can't out another person's alt or our own. Sure, we have codes and things to get around some of the rules when we have meta reasons for why we read people the way we do, but we can't use that as part of our cases or arguments at all. You know how people go, "In GvE, you behaved this way, so I believe xyz here?" We can't do that there. So, because we are accustomed to play without meta - and our hilariously bad altguesses of each other has hindered games in the past - it makes perfect sense why SnowStorm wouldn't want to read any past games to get an unobjective PoV because that's how we're conditioned to play this game.

Uhh... Snowstorm definitely did not give me this impression when he said

The idea I have of Mina's town play is that I usually agree with her and get early town reads on her, which hasn't happened in this game, though I don't think she has posted much? As for CES, I don't really know how to read him and the freshest memory I have of his play is when he managed to survive a whole game as scum without doing anything but voting without reason. So, I'm kinda worried about them, I'd like to see more from Mina.

Out of curiosity, is there data on this somewhere?

I could've sworn that there were some statistics somewhere (made by LlamaFluff, specifically), but they might have been eaten by the crash... This post is all that I could find wrt this argument.

[Staeg]

You still say you think I'm scummy, but you also "defend" me. You can tell the difference between our (not just mine but the other Westero's players') alignment and personality tells and you're the first to defend us if someone gets their tells wrong.

Any commentary on my reply to this?

[Staeg]

Okay umm how about the hydras started acting like one slot instead of two mason/scumbuddies
This is mostly @DEdd, but also a bit about others

[Staeg]

Why do you want Starbuck to nameclaim? Until she's in danger of being lynched, it's antitown. If she was at L-1, we'd want to hear her name and flavor, but until then, all it does is give more information to the scum.

And to the town. Why did she claim VT? Because she volunteered to be chosen. If she was getting chosen, why not nameclaim, and if not, why claim VT? The thing is, even if her name gives us nothing, her doing so (or in this case, not doing so) gives us info.

[Staeg]

For the moment, though, she's nowhere near being chosen. I just don't see how we can use her nameclaim to help us. Stefan, I don't think it's more dangerous, but it's still additional information for the scum.

Well, I guess that my point isn't that she should nameclaim but more that she's scum for not nameclaiming.

(also I don't think that scum gain more info from a nameclaim than townies do, especially if it's coupled with a VT claim, but I don't want to go rolefishing)

[Staeg]

Checking in.

I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal

That's fine and all, but how about some actual reasoning for the votes?

[Staeg]

I'm sorta here-ish
Would prefer minimum to not die, but mainly because I think there are far better choices
Don't think MoS doing the tierce vote ass-forward is a scumtell (would shoot anytime, though)
Aaand that's it for now.

[Staeg]

So um. I haven't begun reading page 28 yet and got prodded. Wheee.

(yes, I'll get to it sooner rather than later)

[Staeg]

Okay, so I'm not caught up and probably won't be for another 3 days (and uh deadline's in 4 and a quarter so), so I'll join this thread from here and talk and stuff.

[Staeg]

Nope, will need some reasons as to why since I had a slight townread on her.

[Staeg]

I completely disagree with regfan on kortul's posts bleeding towniness - they're just a stack of information and analysis that is half decent and half bullshit.

[Staeg]

Herp

Choose: Kortul

[Staeg]

Choose: Kortul

Thanks for killing my town-read on you Staeg. Post 648 shows that Kortuls actually reading through the game super carefully looking for information, not just information to fabricate reasoning to vote people with but information that would better help him attain reads, it's a very town-motivated mindset and not one that scum take when replacing into a game. His overthrought in Post 795 about the usages of the second kill despite it being spoken by everyone prior to him comes across as him really wanting to state what's on his mind whereas as scum he'd know posting something such as that has potential for drawing fire towards him and know that there'd be no gaining in doing it. His Post 1000 is another townish-tell, previous post of his shows that he still suspects Snow despite his mason claim stating that the reasons he suspects him are still valid so him checking up on the likelihood of his claim being legitimate flavourish is very natural. His taking into account his reads on the wagons in Post 1073 is again a town-tell and his attempt to get more infromation on the bvoigt case is too. Also the fact that when reading through Shadow he didn't just state posts he disliked but also linked to one that he did in Post 1081 is a big town-tell, scum don't go into an ISO going 'how can i find them scum and town', not at all especially not when they're planning on voting the person.

The first tells are player-based tells, not alignment-based tells (I wouldn't do that as either alignment, tierce, on the other hand, probably would). Of the others, some are valid but don't cut it and other's aren't valid in multiball at all.

[Staeg]

Alright. Um. The majority of my scumreads, great or small, have either been replaced and are either towning or are apparently masons. So um.
I agree with Sapor on most things (all except for the stefan scumread and my read on Feysal is more based on him sounding

wrong

in his posts than his ISO of GK) and the tone there is town (but Iec appears to be the only one playing and huge hydrabomb incoming etcetc)
GK&SS are masons
Shadow/Starbuck/Kortul can still die anytime
The kortul Choosewagon is not going through today; I could support a Feysal choose, I suppose, but I'd prefer a 666 one, seeing as he'll eventually be mislynched if he's town, and if not, he won't be of much use.

unvote
Vote: Shadow

Unchoose
Choose: 666

Haven't read Bvoight in ISO, but his posts haven't struck me as too bright or too townie, so I wouldn't weep if the lynch landed there.


Jesus, the fucking walls ;_;

Staeg, which of the things that I posted in Post 1108 are player-based tells on him and can you link me a single game of his that proves such because your continued vote on Kortul is disgusting, you should at least be able to read him and see there's significantly better targets to go to.

Okay, these are your towntells:

Post 648 shows that Kortuls actually reading through the game super carefully looking for information, not just information to fabricate reasoning to vote people with but information that would better help him attain reads, it's a very town-motivated mindset and not one that scum take when replacing into a game.

His overthrought in Post 795 about the usages of the second kill despite it being spoken by everyone prior to him comes across as him really wanting to state what's on his mind whereas as scum he'd know posting something such as that has potential for drawing fire towards him and know that there'd be no gaining in doing it.

His Post 1000 is another townish-tell, previous post of his shows that he still suspects Snow despite his mason claim stating that the reasons he suspects him are still valid so him checking up on the likelihood of his claim being legitimate flavourish is very natural.

His taking into account his reads on the wagons in Post 1073 is again a town-tell and his attempt to get more infromation on the bvoigt case is too.

Also the fact that when reading through Shadow he didn't just state posts he disliked but also linked to one that he did in Post 1081 is a big town-tell, scum don't go into an ISO going 'how can i find them scum and town', not at all especially not when they're planning on voting the person.

Underlined is multiball-invalid things, bold are player-based tells and italics are points I disagree that are towntells.

[Staeg]

I want kortul dead so bad ;_;

Shadow, re-read your ability and tell me if what you posted in-thread is accurate. I may or may not be seeing something that doesn't check out.

unvote
Vote:Bvoigt

[Staeg]

Stefan is objectively the best lynch because Stefan has claimed VT 1 day before deadline. This is a no-brainer.

How about Starbuck the claimed VT?

[Staeg]

IIRC, Starbuck claimed VT a) on page 12 or something b) with no significant wagon (but a fair amount of rhetoric, mostly because she had some bizarre idea about the Choose mechanic). If you thought her VT claim

made her scum

, then you probably should have wagoned her and maybe lynched her way back then, but it would be that you thought something about the claim made her scummy (e.g., the circumstances of the claim).

Claiming with a wagon is different. The only reason a claim should change things is if it's alignment-confirmable (e.g., Masons, Cop), and/or if it makes them scumbait (e.g., Vig). (Scum can WIFOM this, but it requires a risk on their part that I would welcome.)

Stefan claimed with a smaller wagon, but at 24 hours to deadline and with momentum, that may as well have been a full wagon.

- Iec

No, you said that this lynch was objectively better because he claimed VT. Starbuck had claimed VT earlier, with a less momentum on her wagon, but it was still there.
The thing is, you're trying to justify Steph as the objectively better lynch in a game of mafia. Almost nothing is objective in mafia.

[Staeg]

Gettin scum reads on Staeg again. Partially meta based but also seems that when he is posting it's rarely ever a post that matters in the game. I could ask some random questions but it's not like that would help all that much.

Aha. What gave you a townread on me earlier on? Why, exactly, do my posts not matter?

[Staeg]

Stefan, why exactly didn't you claim your role and instead crumbed?
(I know others have kinda-sorta asked this but noone put up a direct question)

[Staeg]

welllll thennn

unvote
Vote: bvoight

tbqh, I think that the claim makes bvoight MORE likely to be scum, but vigs can prove themselves and are counterclaimed with bullets etcetc

[Staeg]

Derp

unvote
Vote: Stefan

[Staeg]

Given the information shared by BB, I think anyone who is actively flying under the radar and trying not to make waves, especially at the end of the day, should be investigated; Shinori and Starbuck are already on my scumlist, but they fit into this pattern, and I'm adding MoS, Staeg, and Seraphim to this group as well.

How is BBm's information pointing to this, exactly?

By the way, on good terms with Cersei =/= Lannister Alliance Aligned and vice versa. If anything, Cersei's going to bring about the ruin of the Lannister Alliance, so being against her is not exactly anti-LA.

[Staeg]

Yeah okay mr. I-fakeclaim-miller-as-town

[Staeg]

Flash wagon Saporerint? No?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bvoigt

???

[Staeg]

The wagons were at 10-10. You just voted the claimed vig with no reasoning added on top. I haven't seen any reasons in your ISO previous to this, either.

[Staeg]

How is vig an easy claim, again?

[Staeg]

But in all seriousness, you make more sense than I do this early in regards to that logic, so I'll concede. Sorry Stefan,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bvoigt

?

[Staeg]

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

[Staeg]

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

[Staeg]

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

[Staeg]

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

[Staeg]

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

[Staeg]

Since DCL turned up Stannis Faction, that means that it is multiball, right?

Staeg - what do you mean by you feel bad for Regfan?

I don't think so.

About, not for. Gut bad feelings.


BM, the town should still have a majority; why can't we organize?

[Staeg]

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Yea, I also caught that, but in a somewhat different form. Yesterday:

Spoiler:

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

This interaction looks horrible, and he just looks like he is trying to avoid voting Bvoigt. However, if he really believed in what he was saying he wouldn't have changed his mind so quickly:

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

The back and forth and the weirdness in Staeg's read on Bv really looks bad for him.

Well
What happened at the start of the day was literally tired-me looking at the thread, going "woop, 666 was scum... hm, they opted to kill a mason... fuck, how did the other scumteam know which mason to kill on their own?" and then that didn't make sense, at which point I realized that it's A) not necessarily multiball B) 666's scumteam killed both masons C) bvoigt didn't vig anyone. So, a vig that didn't shoot should probably explain some things and a vote surely can't do any harm.
This is the point where I realize that we'd decided to have shadow torture bvoigt. That kinda locked the vote in but eh.

[Staeg]

(if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

[Staeg]

Yeahhh that was a scumslip alright

Re: me being lynched if bvoigt flips non-stannis scum... Uh, I guess so? I mean, I can't actually defend against "you have bad interactions bro"

[Staeg]

Staeg, did you suspect Stefan when you voted for him, or did you not?

No, I didn't - I had a weak townread on him, but it seemed like the best thing to do at the time with the deadline close and all.

Also, nacho, do tell how I can defend against "bad interactions"

[Staeg]

Pretty much everything I've seen as an accusation against me is "bad interactions with bvoigt" and sometimes a bit of "feels off".

[Staeg]

Yeah excuse me but plessiezar kinda entered the thread and towned everything up a notch or twenty; I pretty much agree with everything he says.

Also, I sent in my jailvote.

[Staeg]

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

This one's @DEdd.

Alright, so, yeah. I'd prefer to godhand plumamma.
Sapo gets in here and stuff
Shinori gets in here and stuff


Aaand I'm not actually sure who I'd want to vote.

[Staeg]

So what the hell is that information?

(I targeted regfan, to ward off all those pesky shitflingers)

[Staeg]

Earlier in your posts you said you felt bad about Regfan and voted BVO. Forgive me if I'm just playing bad, I probably am. Why did you state earlier that you felt bad about regfan in post 1564?

Gut+Role.

Do you still feel bad about him? What makes you feel bad about him?
Yes. Gut+Role.

Also, what is that supposed to mean in regards to you targeting him? To ward off all those pesky shitflingers? Were you doing something that would help give you a town read on him?

By that, I meant that I gave you the answer because if I didn't, someone would come along and be HERP A DERP STAG AINT CLAIMING HIS ACTION HOPING THAT SHINORIS JUST GAMBITING HERP. Yes.

[Staeg]

So why did you choose to use your ability on Regfan?

Because he was a person that I'd trust with an inno if town and want deadeadead if scum.

[Staeg]

I'm not a full alignment cop. I mean, I might as well claim already, since I'd probably be the lynch and this might not change it:
Wyman Manderly, Frey-cop. Regfan result should be obvious, can out other results if needed.

[Staeg]

Yeah and no. About 2/3 through the book, Wyman reveals his plot to Davos (who happens to be flipped scum ._.) and sends him on a mission to uncover his (wyman's) son.

The excuse for this, in my PM, is that the gears of the plot haven't really started moving yet, so I have to put up with the Lannisters and Freys.
(reading my PM, without reading a part of it, I'd actually say it's a scum PM but whatevs)

PE: no, he doesn't kill the Walder brothers (at least, it's not spelled out).

[Staeg]

Oh, I check if a person is a Frey or not. Simple as that.

[Staeg]

Uh, that wasn't in the flavor, that was me being dumb - he asked for Davos to look for Bran, not his son. Yeahhh.

[Staeg]

Also, the name of the ability is Four and Twenty Freys Baked in a Pie.

[Staeg]

You're an outted cop now... You out the result the second you have it....

No, see, these results may or may not actually help town.

As for the other thing - the boltons made it look like Theon killed the two brothers, but he actually killed two random peasant boys.

[Staeg]

Quite literally THE only thing that tells me that I'm town is that the charade is NEARLY done.

Also, I investigated Minimum. Not a Frey.. Both investigation choices are on targets that I'm leaning town, but not really convinced, and would trust if they're town. Minimum's investigation choice also had the added reasoning that as scum they might opt to go for a weird fakeclaim.

[Staeg]

Staeg is by almost all accounts likely some sort of Role-Cop and made up the "Frey Cop" claim in a panic knowing his links to bvoigt (which I pointed out yesterday) were strong. No chance in hell he is getting Godhanded.

In panic? I was well aware that if I wasn't getting lynched today, then tomorrow. I had 2-3 nights/days to plan for this. What the hell are you trying to say?

[Staeg]

After day 1 we had two claimed Freys, both masons. If Staeg is Frey cop, why he decided to ignore them, and not use an ability where it could be useful to town? And why investigate Regfan, who suspected both of them and couldn't be yet another Frey mason? Moreover, there was little chance that Regfan would be wagoned and forced to claim anytime soon, so how the information that he isn't Frey would help Staeg to get a better read on Regfan?

I was expecting the masons to get dealt with by themselves, even without my intervention (if not that night, then the next). Already explained Regfan0

Jal, yes, Min and Reg are not Freys.



The thing is, when I got my role, I immediately went "well, the freys don't actually LIKE the lannisters, so I guess they could maybe be scum?" This kinda waned when I saw the Walder twins flip town, but those two were just kids; they didn't have any clue of what's going on in the game of thrones.

In fact, anyone more apt than me in these things, which side did the Freys choose during Robert's Rebellion?

[Staeg]

If I found Regfan to be a Frey, I'd consider him to be "gut town" and slightly more likely to be town.

[Staeg]

So why did you ‘know’ you were getting lynched other than you being linked via Night Action to a scummy target choice and by dayplay and votes to scum? There have only been 2 Nights total in the game. By 2-3 do you mean 3 periods of Nightalk with your partners (Pre-game and N1 and N2) perchance?

Because everyone was already starting to go OOOH LOOK AT DEM INTERACTIONS BETWEEN BVOIGT AND STAEG at the start of D2. By 2-3 I meant that I didn't know that sapo would get Edd'd, which would make me D4's lynch candidate, instead of D3's.

If I found Regfan to be a Frey, I'd consider him to be "gut town" and slightly more likely to be town.

Staeg, why would you consider him to be "gut town", if in 2036 you said, that until the flip of masons you considered Frey as scum, and not sure even now?

Well, I answered what I'd have thought at the beginning of D2, with the flips and all... uh, before that, I wouldn't actually take my results or role seriously for the first 3 days or so.

The thing is, when I got my role, I immediately went "well, the freys don't actually LIKE the lannisters, so I guess they could maybe be scum?" This kinda waned when I saw the Walder twins flip town, but those two were just kids; they didn't have any clue of what's going on in the game of thrones.

In fact, anyone more apt than me in these things, which side did the Freys choose during Robert's Rebellion?

So, one more time - why did you check Regfan, if you had no idea how to interpret the results? You had the perfect opportunity to ask the bolded question when Snow claimed mason, it would be natural question, not giving away your role, and providing you a better understanding of the future investigation results.

Because:
My role, at the start of the game with no flips, may as well be a VT that can visit someone during the night.
Future flips may make my role (and results) become actually useful for determining alignments, in which case, see my previous explanation (I targeted players that I'd trust as town and would want to out as scum).

Also, I asked the Mod if the events happen at the beginning, the end or anything inbetween of the plot; he said that he couldn't answer. The fact that the Walders were alive at the start indicates that the game can't be endbook-only, but that doesn't tell us much.

[Staeg]

Fakeclaiming VT is the One True Waytm. How does that relate to Freys anyway?

That relates to Freys in the sense that if you/mina would want to fakeclaim something that doesn't go along the lines of your pre-determined fakeclaims, you could pull something out of your collective asses. It's a weak point, but there's no reck, there's no Fate, there's no hindu in this game, so I went for the next best thing.

[Staeg]

No. It's not at all. I'd hope you're trolling but I have a feeling your not so I'll walk you through it. Lets say that Scum!Staeg is given a fake-claim from Faraday, the fake-claim obviously checks out and makes sense but the fake-claim is a VT fake claim then Scum!Staeg is forced to out his real role when Shinori reveals he was caught investigating, this means he'll just claim his real role trying to spin that the flavour still works as town.

Well, none of my flavor explains my ability, so this doesn't really work?

[Staeg]

Would you assume that Wyman Manderly was my fakeclaim or my actual role atm?

[Staeg]

Uh... I'm not sure if I understand your 2072, then.

[Staeg]

Oh, I see. Thought you were saying that I had a fakeclaim of Wyman as a VT, but you never said that the Vt fakeclaim would be Wyman.

[Staeg]

@Staeg, I'm having a hard time buying why you wouldn't legitimately investigate one of the claimed masons. There was a general consensus at the end of D1 that due to the dubious nature of of the mason claims that they probably wouldn't be killed until later on (which didn't hold true). Regardless of whether you interpreted their claim as "oh they may be kids, so I dunno if they really were bad or not!" I would figure that you'd want to check out their claims, to see if they were actually fake claiming or not especially since apparently one or both were scum reads to you once upon a time. That's two potential scums you could have had, vs an investigation of Regfan which would prove nothing at the time.

Because they might have been Frey scum fakeclaiming. Because they might have been thingmajiggered by some weird scum role. But most of all, because I believed that they would solve themselves.

[Staeg]

See the previous post. Getting a Frey result on them wouldn't confirm them as town, and I thought they would get vigged/crosskilled/investigated/whathave you within two days.

Also, I'm not lynched yet because godhand and stuff.

[Staeg]

And another thing: are we agreed that I have something that investigates stuff (aka do you think that me and shinori aren't buddies, and even if we are, it goes a bit further)? This goes to everyone.

[Staeg]

Mjaye, how is that WIFOM?

Everyone including kortul decided that my question wasn't worth answering. Welp. I'll probably answer kortul's question later (but no, there was only one question, the first part was a logical consequence of the second part).

[Staeg]

If the information is valid I think probably the Aegon faction is split into two ‘sub-factions’ – one with Varys / Aegon and one with Danny / John Connington. My knowledge of the series is more drawn from the HBO series but since Danny and John are oversees it could make sense to have them separated in this regard. Anyone who has actually read the books feel free to correct me on this.

Dany has Jorah Mormont, not Jon Connington with her.

I agree with Benmage that it's probably Connington+Aegon(+Septa Lemore/Halfmaester if we need a 5th?) and Varys+Cheesemonger Illyrio.

[Staeg]

That's not what you said, though?

I misread shadows saying Staeg instead of BVO. I don't know why.

I'm fine with BVO lynch, however if Bvo flips town we look at staeg and shadows because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night.

##Vote: Bvo

So, you have information that potentially clears Bvoigt and implicates Staeg and Shadow somehow and you're just fine lynching Bvoigt in case? If that's not what you mean, what do you mean?

No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town.

[Staeg]

@Staeg - so is Shin scum?

Might very well be. Not sure what everyone finds so town about him, and a voyeur/follower wouldn't surprise me as scum.

Kortul, I meant that I might answer it later (depending on what happens in-thread, obv). I'll answer it after I wake up and if ~things~ don't happen.

[Staeg]

GODHAND Plums Yo Momma

[Staeg]

Oh hi I apparently got lynched lemme get something together before this gets locked

[Staeg]

So yeah, Shinori/MJaye/Jal/Scumhunter/kortul can be lynched in any order, don't touch Minimum/Regfan/MoI/BBm/DEdd until much later, but uh, nobody cares about this anyway.