Open 556: Fire and Ice (Over)

[Moonlight]

I'm off to bed, but not before reminding everyone that we need 6 votes for a lynch. And we're only 6 Townies, so unless one scum pair helps us lynch another, we need to come together if we want to still have a fighting chance.

[Mr Glidder]

Not a fan of the way Moonlight suddenly flipped out and made a bajillion posts in a row, but it does feel genuine.

Really not a fan of the sudden twohop to start a wagon on him. NS in particular, with a first post being blatant sheeping.

I'm gonna wait for Zeph to report in before deciding whether to join his wagon.

[Moonlight]

I'm gonna wait for Zeph to report in before deciding whether to join his wagon.

Last visited: Wed May 21, 2014 7:35 am

Yeah, good luck with that.

Why do you even need to see how he responds to this? He'll obviously "change his mind" about his read on Baezu, decide that I'm scum and hop on the wagon. Look at his D1 play, look at Baezu's interactions with him on that day, look at everything that is crystal clear to me but for some reason everyone else seems to be oblivious about.

If we lose, it's going to be because some of you are not doing work that needs to be done. Start paying attention to this game, PLEASE.

[Randomnamechange]

Fine. I'm happy with a Zeph wagon, but still seriously don't trust idk. Also, it is probably good to remember that most people were suspicious of Yuriko, so NS's slot is already suspicious
UNVOTE: idk
VOTE: Zephyrus

[Moonlight]

This is where I'm at right now:

Town:

Boro, midget, Finglove, idk, Mr Glidder

Scum:

Zeph with Baezu, NS with 4 Heads.

Boro I'm quite confident about. midget and Finglove also seem very towny since late D1, and idk's and Glidder's posts on D2 ring quite well.

4 Heads is a slot I initially townread, then I had some doubts about. I'm placing that slot in scum through process of elimination and if I'm wrong about a read, it's probably that one instead of idk or Glidder. But I think I've got this right.

[Moonlight]

For those too lazy to check the votes:

randomidget (1) - Mr Glidder
idk (0) -
Nobody Special

YurikoJasmine

(0) -
Moonlight (2) - Baezu, Nobody Special
4 Heads of Insanity (0) -
Mr Glidder

tman2nd

(0) -
Finglove (0) -
Baezu (0) -
BoroPhil (1) - Finglove
Zephyrus (3) - Moonlight, idk, randomidget

Not voting (3) - 4 Heads of Insanity, BoroPhil, Zephyrus

We need 6 votes to lynch.

[Randomnamechange]

My town - me, Moon, Finglove, Mr Glidder, Boro, 4 heads/Baezu
My scum - Zeph with Baezu/NS, idk with 4 heads
I'm not 100% sure on the second team, but I am confident on the first one.

[Moonlight]

Continuing with more thoughts of mine: it's unlikely that Tricks' wagon was completely scum-free, it was a perfect chance for scum to get major towncred in case he was on the other scum team, and I believe that Baezu's push on Tricks counted on that.

It's really hard to scumread her based on her early D1 play, but her D2 intro was simply awful. She should know better than regarding me confTown at any point, and that me not getting NK'd could simply have come out of fear that a Doc would protect me, so no one bothered to shoot me. She jumped to the conclusion that I must be scum because of my intro, which I can't find anything bad about. I was scumreading Zeph and being wrong about Tricks made me re-examine all my reads, but I reached the same conclusion: that guy's not Town in this one.

Speaking of Tricks, I believe that the formation of a townblock was a huge threat to scum, and it's part of the reason I had second thoughts on 4 Heads (Viomi hated the idea). And right now, a good townblock is the only thing that can save us after the flip and NKs.

[Randomnamechange]

BoroPhil

,

Moonlight

,

Baezu

,

4 Heads of Insanity

,

Finglove,

Not_Mafia

,

The_Ascended

These are the people on Tr1cks wagon (blue = dead)
So there were two possible scum on the wagon.

[Randomnamechange]

Continuing with more thoughts of mine: it's unlikely that Tricks' wagon was completely scum-free, it was a perfect chance for scum to get major towncred in case he was on the other scum team, and I believe that Baezu's push on Tricks counted on that.

It's really hard to scumread her based on her early D1 play, but her D2 intro was simply awful. She should know better than regarding me confTown at any point, and that me not getting NK'd could simply have come out of fear that a Doc would protect me, so no one bothered to shoot me. She jumped to the conclusion that I must be scum because of my intro, which I can't find anything bad about. I was scumreading Zeph and being wrong about Tricks made me re-examine all my reads, but I reached the same conclusion: that guy's not Town in this one.

Speaking of Tricks, I believe that the formation of a townblock was a huge threat to scum, and it's part of the reason I had second thoughts on 4 Heads (Viomi hated the idea). And right now, a good townblock is the only thing that can save us after the flip and NKs.

My town block would consist of you, me, Finglove, Mr Glidder and Boro.

[Finglove]

I am still suspicious of Boro, but I agree I can't fit him with a partner at this stage. I'm happy with randommidget and moon as town, probably glidder as well. We all seem to share our strongest scum reads as Zeph and NS(yurikoslot) so should we go after one of them?

[Moonlight]

That's the idea. We'll need to eventually wonder if our townreads on each other are wrong, but that's a headache for D3 and on in my opinion. Zeph's play is the one that sticks out the most for me, NS is lurkish and doesn't post a lot as either alignment, so I'm a bit more hesitant about reading him.

If we mislynch today, we're pretty screwed anyway so I won't get into that. On the flip side, now that our numbers are dwindling, the scum are faced with the following, delicious, WIFOMy dilemma:

"If the other team expect us to kill another Townie in the second night, they might try to shoot us to get an early advantage now that Town is toast".

This game is going to be a headache for scum too. And that dilemma becomes even more serious for them if we lynch one of them today!

[Mr Glidder]

Hmm yes I forgot that people might not be returning after the downtime.

Well,

Wagon on Zeph (scumread): Moonlight (townread), idk (null), randomidget (weakening scumread)
Wagon on Moonlight (townread): Baezu (nulltownread), NS (nullscumread)

Okay.

Vote: Zephyrus

[Baezu]

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

[BoroPhil]

I am here, but I seem to be having problems logging in.

Initial thoughts:

a) Tricky was town. WTF
b) Scum took out the best two players by far. Pretty lucky not to go for the same one though.
c) Finglove following Tricky's dying wishes is odd considering how badly he played (though if he was sick I guess I can understand him not wanting to put the effort in)
d) But what is odder is he picks out a Tricky post from 470 (May 5) and ignores Tricky's last post - 739, 13 days later. Surely Fingy, if you are happy to 'happy to follow a dead mans suggestion for now', why not his last post?
e) Tricky did look scummy, but before we speedlynch Zeph, surely worth noting that he was actually the only person confidently townreading him. So maybe we should listen to what he has to say.

oh and Fingy, in response to 783 - I've had a scum read on 4 Heads for most of the game - see 322 for example.

[Moonlight]

Baezu's vote puts Zeph at L-1. (Meanwhile, I keep telling myself that her post is a blatant appeal to emotion from scum, but the possibility that I've been horribly wrong somewhere gnaws at me regardless.)

@Boro: He was sick last time we talked and we're still friends. =P I get upset easily but I never hold grudges, especially over a game.

What's your read on the situation here other than those thoughts? What do you think of Baezu and NS?

[BoroPhil]

reads so far

Baezu
Not_Mafia
BoroPhil
randomidget/Moonlight
Moonlight/randomidget (about equally on the town half)
4 Heads of Insanity (honestly, about equal to them, too)
YurikoJasmine
Finglove
Zephyrus
tman2nd
idk
Tr1ckster

Something like this. But it doesn't feel right. Best I have right now, off of my casual catch-up. I'll need to do more later.

*thinks about mastin's rambling stuff*

Spoiler: His thoughts

I suppose how I'm being perceived would matter to me if it was by someone I consider important. The community as a whole is not something I consider important enough, not yet at least. Maybe that'll change, but for the moment I can put myself in those shoes by imagining myself not meeting the expectations of someone whose play I look up to.

My own reads are similar...ish.

10 -
9 -
8 - The_Ascended
7 - NM & Boro
6 - Baezu
5 - 4 Heads & midget
4 - Finglove & tman
3 - idk & Jasmine
2 - Zeph
1 - Tricks
0 -

0 = Lynch this no matter what, 10 = Never, ever, ever lynch this, 1-9 = Everything in-between.

Strange. I usually have a 9 by this point and don't have that many people below 5. Lurking in this one makes me more uneasy than usual too.

Zeph's last post puzzles me. I can't tell if it's distancing or if these two can't be scum together (because who would notice their buddy's posts so late?).

My reads list, from town to scum:

Leaning town: Not_Mafia, Moonlight

Weak lean town: Boro, Baezu

Null: 4 Heads, The_Ascended (I find hydras pretty hard to read, but nothing in their posts has particularly alarmed me yet)

Leaning scum: idk (lurking), randommidget (lack of conviction in scumhunting), Yuriko (lurking, even taking V/LA into consideration)

Scumreads: Zephyrus, Tr1ckster (see previous post)

(Replacing out: tman2nd)

My reads list is (from towniest to scummiest):

The ascended
Moonlight
Borophil
NotMafia
Fin glove
4heads
Tman
Idk
Jasmine
Midget
Zeph
Tricks

Minor correction*

Zephyrus
BoroPhil
Not Mafia
idk
RandomMidget
Tr1ckster
tman2nd
Finglove
Moonlight
YurikoJasmine
The_Ascended
4 Heads of Insanity
Baezu

As for me, I think I am:

Not
Ascended
Finglove
Moonlight
Random
tman
Zeph
Yuriko
Baezu
4heads
idk
Tricky

I think these are worth posting again for reference.

[BoroPhil]

Baezu has flip flopped around a lot - and his vote above is pretty indicative of that. Votes for you, then votes with you? I think he swapped his reads on me yesterday as well.

[BoroPhil]

Fine. I'm happy with a Zeph wagon, but still seriously don't trust idk. Also, it is probably good to remember that most people were suspicious of Yuriko, so NS's slot is already suspicious
UNVOTE: idk
VOTE: Zephyrus

I think this is the key point for NS - it's scummy as it stands based on Yuriko. and jumping on today's most popular wagon without anything else isn't exactly endearing them to me.

reads list NS?

[Moonlight]

I wasn't the popular wagon at any stage though.

Since Zeph shows no signs of life, I'll play devil's advocate for him. The one thing I can find in his defense is his absence.

If I was scum, even if I had to go V/LA, I would try my best to check the thread once in a while to see how my buddy is doing. Even if I trusted my buddy completely to not let Town lynch someone who's not responding, I'd still hate to leave something out of my control.

Zeph and I are different people of course, but the lack of his presence unsettles me when it comes to reading him, despite finding his play very scummy.

(This whole defense is moot if he is cunning enough to be checking the thread while logged out though.)

[Randomnamechange]

I wasn't the popular wagon at any stage though.

Since Zeph shows no signs of life, I'll play devil's advocate for him. The one thing I can find in his defense is his absence.

If I was scum, even if I had to go V/LA, I would try my best to check the thread once in a while to see how my buddy is doing. Even if I trusted my buddy completely to not let Town lynch someone who's not responding, I'd still hate to leave something out of my control.

Zeph and I are different people of course, but the lack of his presence unsettles me when it comes to reading him, despite finding his play very scummy.

(This whole defense is moot if he is cunning enough to be checking the thread while logged out though.)

He doesn't need to do that. You can select to not have it shown that you are online. Also, in Newbie 1488 he was a bit of a lurker and town.

[idk]

This is a surprisingly quiet game. Thought there would be a lot more posts in 2 days.

Hmmm. Why would they keep you alive moon? You're essentially conftown and that's a great nk for scum. The fact that you're still alive combined with the fact that you pointed it out in that first line throws up a red flag for me all over the place. Why do you think they kept you alive? Also, what's with the rapid vote out of the gate? Man that whole post reeks to me. It seems like it's coming from over cocky scum that thinks he can't get caught... :/

VOTE: moonlight

Holy shit that was forced. You seem to be trying waaaay too hard to get rid of Moonlight. Was it because your scum-buddy changed your NK at the last minute?

I tend to agree with Baezu. (Hey, first time for everything )

VOTE: Moonlight

"Hi everybody, I haven't posted yet, but I agree, let's lynch the most town player here."

What even just happened?

randomidget
Finglove
Moonlight
BoroPhil
Mr Glidder
4 Heads of Insanity
Baezu
Zephyrus
Nobody Special
idk

Least scummy at the top, most at the bottom. I really don't like the way idk is flying under the radar.

Real convincing case there, midget. I might have to vote myself after that one.

I am still suspicious of Boro, but I agree I can't fit him with a partner at this stage. I'm happy with randommidget and moon as town, probably glidder as well. We all seem to share our strongest scum reads as Zeph and NS(yurikoslot) so should we go after one of them?

To be honest, I don't think it really matters who their scumbuddy is at this stage in the game. As no scum has died yet, we're still in a position where we need to lynch the scummiest player. Once there's a scumflip, then we can try looking through interactions to find the other wolf, but until then, it's just wasting time.

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

"I got shit for my vote, so lemme switch to a wagon."

I am here, but I seem to be having problems logging in.

Try clearing your cookies. Worked for me.

Initial thoughts:

a) Tricky was town. WTF
b) Scum took out the best two players by far. Pretty lucky not to go for the same one though.
c) Finglove following Tricky's dying wishes is odd considering how badly he played (though if he was sick I guess I can understand him not wanting to put the effort in)
d) But what is odder is he picks out a Tricky post from 470 (May 5) and ignores Tricky's last post - 739, 13 days later. Surely Fingy, if you are happy to 'happy to follow a dead mans suggestion for now', why not his last post?
e) Tricky did look scummy, but before we speedlynch Zeph, surely worth noting that he was actually the only person confidently townreading him. So maybe we should listen to what he has to say.

oh and Fingy, in response to 783 - I've had a scum read on 4 Heads for most of the game - see 322 for example.

a) This seems like a genuine reaction from someone who thought for sure Tricky was scum.
b) Why do you feel like you have to address the NK? Unless you're trying to figure out who would've wanted them dead, I see no reason to bring that up.
c)

Other name that springs out is BoroPhil. Tricks and Ascended got worried about him at various points, and I was scumreading him a while back as Glidder pointed out. Let me just iso him...

He stated that both Tricks

and

Ascended had a scumread on Boro, and also said he had a similar read on him earlier in the game. So it wasn't just Tricky.
d) Surely, Boro, if you had read, he was following not one, but

two

dead men's wishes, as well as his own wish. Just sayin'.
e) I agree that speedlynching someone isn't a good idea, but take a look at Zeph's post. At the risk of sounding quite rude, I think he's either scum or has one of the worst town plays I have ever seen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So far there have been no posts from 4 Heads of Insanity or Zephyrus today. Let's get some activity from ya!

Now that I'm out of school, I should be able to make more posts. Sorry for the low activity Day 1!

[Mr Glidder]

Okay that's a town post there by idk. I hadn't realized the full extent of that Baezu flipflopflorp.

Also

I'll probably be V/LA for two days

.

[Randomnamechange]

Continuing with more thoughts of mine: it's unlikely that Tricks' wagon was completely scum-free, it was a perfect chance for scum to get major towncred in case he was on the other scum team, and I believe that Baezu's push on Tricks counted on that.

It's really hard to scumread her based on her early D1 play, but her D2 intro was simply awful. She should know better than regarding me confTown at any point, and that me not getting NK'd could simply have come out of fear that a Doc would protect me, so no one bothered to shoot me. She jumped to the conclusion that I must be scum because of my intro, which I can't find anything bad about. I was scumreading Zeph and being wrong about Tricks made me re-examine all my reads, but I reached the same conclusion: that guy's not Town in this one.

Speaking of Tricks, I believe that the formation of a townblock was a huge threat to scum, and it's part of the reason I had second thoughts on 4 Heads (Viomi hated the idea). And right now, a good townblock is the only thing that can save us after the flip and NKs.

I reckon the doc protected you, as you, the_ascended and nm were the obvious targets.

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

No one picks up on this switch from Moon being scum to moon being an extremely strong town read in one page when there suspicion on Moon starts getting them into trouble? Also diverting attention to Zeph by putting him at L-1. I smell diversionary tactics

This is a surprisingly quiet game. Thought there would be a lot more posts in 2 days.

Hmmm. Why would they keep you alive moon? You're essentially conftown and that's a great nk for scum. The fact that you're still alive combined with the fact that you pointed it out in that first line throws up a red flag for me all over the place. Why do you think they kept you alive? Also, what's with the rapid vote out of the gate? Man that whole post reeks to me. It seems like it's coming from over cocky scum that thinks he can't get caught... :/

VOTE: moonlight

Holy shit that was forced. You seem to be trying waaaay too hard to get rid of Moonlight. Was it because your scum-buddy changed your NK at the last minute?

I tend to agree with Baezu. (Hey, first time for everything )

VOTE: Moonlight

"Hi everybody, I haven't posted yet, but I agree, let's lynch the most town player here."

What even just happened?

randomidget
Finglove
Moonlight
BoroPhil
Mr Glidder
4 Heads of Insanity
Baezu
Zephyrus
Nobody Special
idk

Least scummy at the top, most at the bottom. I really don't like the way idk is flying under the radar.

Real convincing case there, midget. I might have to vote myself after that one.

I am still suspicious of Boro, but I agree I can't fit him with a partner at this stage. I'm happy with randommidget and moon as town, probably glidder as well. We all seem to share our strongest scum reads as Zeph and NS(yurikoslot) so should we go after one of them?

To be honest, I don't think it really matters who their scumbuddy is at this stage in the game. As no scum has died yet, we're still in a position where we need to lynch the scummiest player. Once there's a scumflip, then we can try looking through interactions to find the other wolf, but until then, it's just wasting time.

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

"I got shit for my vote, so lemme switch to a wagon."

I am here, but I seem to be having problems logging in.

Try clearing your cookies. Worked for me.

Initial thoughts:

a) Tricky was town. WTF
b) Scum took out the best two players by far. Pretty lucky not to go for the same one though.
c) Finglove following Tricky's dying wishes is odd considering how badly he played (though if he was sick I guess I can understand him not wanting to put the effort in)
d) But what is odder is he picks out a Tricky post from 470 (May 5) and ignores Tricky's last post - 739, 13 days later. Surely Fingy, if you are happy to 'happy to follow a dead mans suggestion for now', why not his last post?
e) Tricky did look scummy, but before we speedlynch Zeph, surely worth noting that he was actually the only person confidently townreading him. So maybe we should listen to what he has to say.

oh and Fingy, in response to 783 - I've had a scum read on 4 Heads for most of the game - see 322 for example.

a) This seems like a genuine reaction from someone who thought for sure Tricky was scum.
b) Why do you feel like you have to address the NK? Unless you're trying to figure out who would've wanted them dead, I see no reason to bring that up.
c)

Other name that springs out is BoroPhil. Tricks and Ascended got worried about him at various points, and I was scumreading him a while back as Glidder pointed out. Let me just iso him...

He stated that both Tricks

and

Ascended had a scumread on Boro, and also said he had a similar read on him earlier in the game. So it wasn't just Tricky.
d) Surely, Boro, if you had read, he was following not one, but

two

dead men's wishes, as well as his own wish. Just sayin'.
e) I agree that speedlynching someone isn't a good idea, but take a look at Zeph's post. At the risk of sounding quite rude, I think he's either scum or has one of the worst town plays I have ever seen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So far there have been no posts from 4 Heads of Insanity or Zephyrus today. Let's get some activity from ya!

Now that I'm out of school, I should be able to make more posts. Sorry for the low activity Day 1!

damn that was a townie post. This more or less clears idk unless one of my other scum reads comes up with a good reason why they are town.

[Moonlight]

@MOD:

Requesting prods/replacements for 4 Heads and Zephyrus.

And was Kublai Khan notified about this game? =/