Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

If there are four players in a scum pool, and only one of them is scum, farside doesn't think that I should have ANY town feelings towards any of them.

Even though three of them are town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Y'know, I had a big(ger) post prepped linking to every single substantive mention of Amy by GC on Day 4, but I think these are the crucial ones that need to be judged if we're evaluating whether or not his stance on Amy shifted unnaturally or opportunistically.

This reasonable enough point that gives Amy some credit is the only thing to which he points as a reason to outright townread her on Day 4. He later talks a bit about how her interactions with scrambles specifically don't look much like a buddy, but it's worded more null than this.

That reason there fits one of the criteria that merited inclusion in this post, where he posits Riddleton, CDB, Titus and himself as people who should be generally accepted as town.

(1) Played against a scum win condition.
(a) THEORY: Scum won't bus both of their scum partners back-to-back so that they are last alive, this early in the game.
(b) THEORY IN PLAY: Voted to lynch Beli-scum D2 and scrambles-scum D3.

This is what that criterion was, and Amy's behaviour highlighted in the first link fits it.

I think it's a mistake not to acknowledge that he made such a point

when he talks about Amy later on down in this post but do I think it's indicative of a nefarious desire to keep her open as a mislynch? No. I actually think it shows consistency in his approach to his 'these four people are conftown' post. Because, aside from himself, nobody to whom he applies this 'wouldn't bus both buddies' towntell has that as the

only

reason why they're on the list. For every (1), there is a (2). Amy doesn't have that - and you'll recall that he didn't have another strong point earlier in the Day that he was also overlooking. Instead, he had the perfectly legitimate concern that Amy was no longer as strong a presence in the game as she should have been. He presents that as the reason why she's not on the list and, reading between the lines of the rest of his post, I think it's clear that he's trying to say that it's in spite of the aforementioned townping.

With that in mind, everything that comes afterwards makes sense. He says Amy's not conftown but that there are multiple people whom he'd prefer to lynch here, which is consistent with the above. He reminds farside that he has as much of a problem with Amy's inactivity as he does with farside's here. Here he finds himself having to choose between Amy, farside, CKD and CDB, where he finds the latter two town and acknowledges that maintaining a vote on farside would not get her or someone whom he suspects more than Amy to be lynched, so he votes for Amy.

It's consistent. It's all consistent. I think GC is guilty of not making #1797 as completely crystal clear as he could have done, but I don't think that was done with a scummy intent behind it. I don't think that it is a valid reason to suspect him.

[Green Crayons]

This is where I see a motive with lynches. I know I'm town so his move to CKD and saying he could convince riddle on my lynch if CKD is town makes me read lining up lynches for a scum win.

lol, already debunked:

And here's further scum logic. "You think Player X and Player Y are scum candidates. I think Player X and Player Y are town. You must therefore be scum setting up mislynches!"

This surface-level logic - refusing to consider and weigh the basis for a player's suspicions - is a great scum template, because it can be applied to anyone! Examples:

1) farside thinks GC and Titus are scum candidates. I think GC and Titus are town. Therefore farside must be scum, setting up mislynches!
2) Riddle thinks CKD and GC are scum candidates. I think CKD and GC are town. Therefore Riddle must be scum, setting up mislynches!
3) CKD thinks GC and CBD (I think?) are scum candidates. I think GC and CBD are town. Therefore CKD must be scum, setting up mislynches!

lol, double standard, these people aren't also suspicious to farside for the exact same play:

I really can't make it simpler than this, CKD.

Especially

if I thought I had more time than I did, why wouldn't I want somebody who I could still quite plausibly see as town to show signs of reconsidering and making sure that they were on the right track? How many times do I have to explain that the choice between you and Amy is essentially arbitrary to me before you accept that I'm not protraying you as Beelzebub incarnate?

No one's willing to join me on CKD. Thus, my options are stay on CKD and be a stubborn person; or compromise. You even awknowledged this stance yourself with Farside/Amy yesterday.

I already said that CKD and you are my main suspects. Voting CKD first is safer, yes, in the rare event both of you are town. But no one is willing to join me on it (bar GC who doesn't seem to be really buying CKD as scum which farside pointed out)

[curiouskarmadog]

okay going to reread farside, I guess the not hammering me bit makes sense (from a farsidescum angle). But she really could have backed off today with posting (using a shitty GC theory) and I am pretty sure it (my lynch) would have happened without much talk from her. I guess her coming in defending me could help get me (and lets say Riddleton) to lylo with her, and my lynch would pretty much have been a slam dunk. The only backfire was that no one hammered.

it is hard for me to swallow this though..

[curiouskarmadog]

also it should be noted...all things constant, GC is the lynch (got to 2 first).

I should be around tomorrow, but sat/sun I might be out of commission.

[Green Crayons]

For the record, if I do get lynched, CDB shouldn't get town points for town reading me if he makes it to LYLO. Per the general rule that nobody should ever get town points for reading a town player, barring some abnormal situation-specific exception, and this situation is not an exception.

That said, that is the only scum motivation I could see in CDB undertaking a thorough and thoughtful analysis and reread that repeatedly hammers home (among other points) that I look, sound, breathe, and am town.

Everything else about his play today looks town from where I'm sitting, even trying to take into consideration the inevitable bias that comes into the analysis when talking about apparently the only person who actually sees my play as town.

[Baezu]

Vote Count 5.07

(L-2)

Farside22: (2) Green Crayons, ChannelDelibird

(L-2)

Green Crayons: (2) Farside22, Riddleton
Riddleton: (1) Titus

Not Voting: Curiouskarmadog

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-11-25 17:49:00)

Mod Notes:
None

[/area]

[farside22]

I'm looking through this myself.

Post 1087 not keen on amy vote from CBD and prior to this didn't believe CBD's read on Amy.
post 1321 his only reason for dinging amy was her reaction and reduced activity in the game.
post1350 I note he jumps on this one post from amy where she contradicts herself.
post1354 reads as though he doesn't see it as something scummy
post1390 clarifies not scummy
this postshows he is uncomfortable with amy
What alarms me is if he wasn't comfortable with Amy and her post and reaction about scrambles why do I see this post with still looking at options
quickly after this is the vca work here where cbd is back on the list
Which changes once again here Why did he back down his own thoughts and follow riddle? Why not work out and talk it though back and forth?
here we have the me before amy comment
here you see GC is talking about amy interaction and why he didn't see it as scum
He follows Amy logic here for ckd
finally we have [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p6357676]this vote on Amy.

He seriously changed his mind back and forth between me, ckd, me, amy back to ckd back to me and then amy for really the only reason was what?
I'm asking because most of his post was seeing beli and her and even scrambles looking at her as town and not scum.

That vote from GC onto amy was BS.

Logical my ass CBD

[Green Crayons]

If there are four players in a scum pool, and only one of them is scum, farside doesn't think that I should have ANY town feelings towards any of them.

Even though three of them are town.

[Green Crayons]

This is where I see a motive with lynches. I know I'm town so his move to CKD and saying he could convince riddle on my lynch if CKD is town makes me read lining up lynches for a scum win.

lol, already debunked:

And here's further scum logic. "You think Player X and Player Y are scum candidates. I think Player X and Player Y are town. You must therefore be scum setting up mislynches!"

This surface-level logic - refusing to consider and weigh the basis for a player's suspicions - is a great scum template, because it can be applied to anyone! Examples:

1) farside thinks GC and Titus are scum candidates. I think GC and Titus are town. Therefore farside must be scum, setting up mislynches!
2) Riddle thinks CKD and GC are scum candidates. I think CKD and GC are town. Therefore Riddle must be scum, setting up mislynches!
3) CKD thinks GC and CBD (I think?) are scum candidates. I think GC and CBD are town. Therefore CKD must be scum, setting up mislynches!

lol, double standard, these people aren't also suspicious to farside for the exact same play:

I really can't make it simpler than this, CKD.

Especially

if I thought I had more time than I did, why wouldn't I want somebody who I could still quite plausibly see as town to show signs of reconsidering and making sure that they were on the right track? How many times do I have to explain that the choice between you and Amy is essentially arbitrary to me before you accept that I'm not protraying you as Beelzebub incarnate?

No one's willing to join me on CKD. Thus, my options are stay on CKD and be a stubborn person; or compromise. You even awknowledged this stance yourself with Farside/Amy yesterday.

I already said that CKD and you are my main suspects. Voting CKD first is safer, yes, in the rare event both of you are town. But no one is willing to join me on it (bar GC who doesn't seem to be really buying CKD as scum which farside pointed out)

[farside22]

If there are four players in a scum pool, and only one of them is scum, farside doesn't think that I should have ANY town feelings towards any of them.

Even though three of them are town.

Town feelings sure.

Changing reads on a whim and going with any flow that leads to a lynch of a player you were not scum reading that hard for a good fucking reason.

No.

[Green Crayons]

Here was my pool of acceptable lynches yesterday: farside, CDB, CKD, and Amy.

By the end of yesterday, I thought CDB and CKD were bad lynches. Thus I was down to farside and Amy.

Nobody wants to kill most likely scum farside,

so I go for my other option, Amy, for the reasons stated.

Then today begins up.

NOBODY JOINS ME ON FARSIDE FOR NO GOOD GODDAMN REASON.

Seriously it's aggravating.

So since that's not gong through, I return to my other two options: CDB and CKD. I don't really know which of them is more likely to be scum than the other, so I vote for CKD since people are actually voting him and at least one of the players (Riddle) who is doing so accepts the fact that if CKD and I am not scum, then farside is scum. Since I know for a fact that I am not scum, and if CKD flips and ends up not being scum, then I at least have one other person I can try to convince that I am actually town and farside is indeed the scum I think she is.

[Green Crayons]

It's like you're ignoring the fact that I have always said you are the scummiest scumbag out of the scum pool, but because I can't get the votes to join you, I switch to other players in the scum pool who I think are relatively the scummiest (after you).

[Green Crayons]

the votes to lynch you*

Like, your 2482 is a whole list of me talking about Amy, but it ignores the context that

at the time I switched from farside to Amy, (1) there wasn't a sufficient enough votes to lynch farside (the scummiest scum in the scum pool), (2) I thought CKD and CDB looked pretty darn town (even though they were in the lynch pool), and therefore that meant (3) Amy had some lingering suspicion on her, and therefore was a more acceptable lynch than CKD or CDB, and thus I switched to her because an Amy lynch > CKD/CDB lynch.

[farside22]

It's like you're ignoring the fact that I have always said you are the scummiest scumbag out of the scum pool, but because I can't get the votes to join you, I switch to other players in the scum pool who I think are relatively the scummiest (after you).

Which changes from Amy to Ckd. Which ever wagon works.

[farside22]

All I hear reading GC's post is waaaahhhh people didn't join me so I went with one of the other 4 reads I listed as scum even though I called them town.

[farside22]

Sorry 3 not 4.

[Green Crayons]

All I hear reading GC's post is waaaahhhh people didn't join me so I went with one of the other 4 reads I listed as scum even though I called them town.

lol:

This is where I see a motive with lynches. I know I'm town so his move to CKD and saying he could convince riddle on my lynch if CKD is town makes me read lining up lynches for a scum win.

lol, already debunked:

And here's further scum logic. "You think Player X and Player Y are scum candidates. I think Player X and Player Y are town. You must therefore be scum setting up mislynches!"

This surface-level logic - refusing to consider and weigh the basis for a player's suspicions - is a great scum template, because it can be applied to anyone! Examples:

1) farside thinks GC and Titus are scum candidates. I think GC and Titus are town. Therefore farside must be scum, setting up mislynches!
2) Riddle thinks CKD and GC are scum candidates. I think CKD and GC are town. Therefore Riddle must be scum, setting up mislynches!
3) CKD thinks GC and CBD (I think?) are scum candidates. I think GC and CBD are town. Therefore CKD must be scum, setting up mislynches!

lol, double standard, these people aren't also suspicious to farside for the exact same play:

I really can't make it simpler than this, CKD.

Especially

if I thought I had more time than I did, why wouldn't I want somebody who I could still quite plausibly see as town to show signs of reconsidering and making sure that they were on the right track? How many times do I have to explain that the choice between you and Amy is essentially arbitrary to me before you accept that I'm not protraying you as Beelzebub incarnate?

No one's willing to join me on CKD. Thus, my options are stay on CKD and be a stubborn person; or compromise. You even awknowledged this stance yourself with Farside/Amy yesterday.

I already said that CKD and you are my main suspects. Voting CKD first is safer, yes, in the rare event both of you are town. But no one is willing to join me on it (bar GC who doesn't seem to be really buying CKD as scum which farside pointed out)

[Green Crayons]

Oh, and:

If there are four players in a scum pool, and only one of them is scum, farside doesn't think that I should have ANY town feelings towards any of them.

Even though three of them are town.

[ChannelDelibird]

farside needs to hang Today. I don't believe that she believes this nonsense.

[Green Crayons]

All I hear reading GC's post is waaaahhhh people didn't join me so I went with one of the other 4 reads I listed as scum even though I called them town.

Like, the brash ignorance of this post is astounding.

Hey, look, this applies too!:

Titus and CKD: join me on the GC wagon.

There is nothing I read from GC today that he even remotely believes CKD is scum.
He is using riddle's desire and will most like push for my lynch. I see the set up and if you missed the implication please let me know so I can smack sense into you.

For farside-town to have posted this, she would have to believe:

(1) EITHER

(A) It's impossible for town to have more than one scum suspect at a time; OR

(B) Town, in a non-LYLO situation, will never vote from their scum suspect pool a person they do not suspect the most from that pool (CKD), because nobody will join them in voting the person they do suspect the most from that pool (farside), and because the thread has indicated that it is willing to lynch outside of the scum suspect pool (Riddle, Titus, GC).


(2) Town only 100% believe in their votes, even when they admit that they are not voting for their #1 suspect.


(3) That the following posts do not actually indicate GC's basis for suspecting CKD, even if it is not a 100% confident vote:
- Post 1074
- Post 1654
- Post 1659
- Post 1662
- Post 1697
- Post 1723
- Post 1784
- Post 1797
- Post 1798
- Post 1991
- Post 2013
- Post 2018
- Post 2112
- Post 2113
- Post 2115
- Post 2120
- Post 2233
- Post 2246

[farside22]

farside needs to hang Today. I don't believe that she believes this nonsense.

You need to read my links and tell me why I'm wrong.

How many people has he listed as scum? Do you know I have seen scum do the exact same thing not to long ago.
It's called keeping your options open and swinging any lynch you want without anything ever going against them.

[Green Crayons]

lol

The only lynch I have ~*~ wanted ~*~ for the past two days is a farside lynch.

I have settled for pursuing other lynches. Just like CDB did yesterday. Just like Riddle is doing today.

[farside22]

Apparently having 50% options throughout the game on who to lynch should look town to GC for some reason.

[Green Crayons]

How many people has he listed as scum? Do you know I have seen scum do the exact same thing not to long ago.

Oh, a meta attack without citing the previous game.

Quick, Riddle, get in here and make sure to be as critical of this meta attack on me as you were of my "meta" attack on farside!