Open 645: C9++ - Game Over

[davesaz]

VOTE: Ümläüt

[davesaz]

Zach stop leading mislynches and vote for transcend already

And just how would you know what's a mislynch and what's not?

VOTE: Dunnstral

[davesaz]

Zach stop leading mislynches and vote for transcend already

And just how would you know what's a mislynch and what's not?

VOTE: Dunnstral

I don't like this.

FoS Dave.

Why don't you like it?
How should someone read the comment I replied to?

[davesaz]

vanity wagon

Vote transcend

Reason?

[davesaz]

Vote transcend

Reason?

Why vote transcend?

[davesaz]

Why don't you like it?
How should someone read the comment I replied to?

Too easy.

If we were 2-3 days into the phase (and therefore more material available) this might hold water, but we don't even have a post from everyone yet.

[davesaz]

Why don't you like it?
How should someone read the comment I replied to?

Too easy.

If we were 2-3 days into the phase (and therefore more material available) this might hold water, but we don't even have a post from everyone yet.

So what do you think of me questioning you on it? Why shouldn't I question you on it? What do you get out of even mentioning what Dunn did? Couldn't you just see how things develop? Cuz it looks like you are basically just setting up how this argument goes knowing someone will question you on it so you can argue with them to make them look scummy.

Having a conversation on it is good.
I didn't say you shouldn't ask, I said your stated reason for not liking it (too easy) is weak at that point in the game.
What do I get from it? I see whether Dunn or others panic at the suggestion he's scum.
The whole point of the game is to accuse people and see what they do.

[davesaz]

vanity wagon

Vote transcend

Reason?

Hmmm asking his scumread why to vote someone. Not sure what to make of it, probably dismissing it as null.

At this point all reads are weak. I have reason to suspect him and want to see what my vote will provoke, but need more info. The request for votes seems rather empty, so I was trying to probe if there was a reason behind it that I just didn't see.

Zach stop leading mislynches and vote for transcend already

And just how would you know what's a mislynch and what's not?

VOTE: Dunnstral

I don't like this.

FoS Dave.

"yo dave... dude.... i don't really like your vote lol... i think ur scummy i fos u lol....


oh, but riddleton was last to confirm his role he's gotta eat rope lol... ha"

i feel like if you were scum you'd probably make more of a push on dave than you did here. i think your fos here is justified, i think you should've thrown a vote his way or something, but it is what it is.

I often see scum do a dance around people just like what LQ did. Cast a little suspicion, wait till someone agrees, then sheep the case the other person makes.
The followup dialogue with LQ makes me doubt he's scum, but still got my eye on him.

[davesaz]

There is no evidence to support that that is what I'm doing. Casting shade much? Very noncommittal read. Basically you are leaving yourself open to jump on board my wagon if one occurs.

The purpose of my post was to tell Transcend not to use "FOS without vote" by itself as AI.
I'm very open about early reads being noncommittal, and always am. I even said it myself...

At this point all reads are weak.

[davesaz]

Why would Dunn panic so easily?

Let the record show dave never answered this.

Let the record show that I didn't notice it.
Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Also note the "and others".

[davesaz]

Ranger's readlists seem rather stratified. I'd like for her to point out some of the distinctions that resulted in her being able to define 8 different tiers. But for now it seems arbitrary. I'm not sure why Dunn was moved up to the same tier as the conftown, and I don't see anything Riddleton's done to be put in the tier below that.

Ranger's read lists tend to be relative. The top tier is townier than the bottom, but it should not be read as conftown, nor is the bottom tier necessarily a scumread. She usually keeps it unlabelled for a while.

[davesaz]

Why would Dunn panic so easily?

Let the record show dave never answered this.

Let the record show that I didn't notice it.
Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Also note the "and others".

Why didn't you notice it? Sometimes who does what? "and others" I was asking you not others.

1. Because it came in while I was posting a reply to an earlier post. I hit preview to verify the tags on what I wrote but didn't notice another new post had come in. After that point it was no longer new, so when I hit the "new posts" icon for the thread it positioned at a later point. Before you get snippy about this, I never lie about RL things like the mechanics of how I read threads and post.

2. Sometimes the target panics, sometimes they don't.

3. I previously said that I want to see what the target does, and what others do. It's interesting to see who ignores it, who agrees with it, and who overreacts. (that would be you btw)

4. Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you? (I think I know the answer and I'm not scumreading you atm, but still interested in what you actually say)

Pedit @farmer: Yeah, once in a while there is an exception to the "Ranger's reads are relative" rule.

Pedit2: And slip ups like that can be a scumtell for Ranger, if indeed it is a slip. She makes a point of doing the read list thing as either alignment. Caution though, I hard scumread her for unnaturally strong town reads in a previous game and she turned up town... gonna want a reason for them being in the same tier, and a good one.

[davesaz]

I don't think I got an answer on 111. At that time why were you voting Transcend and trying to get others to follow?

[davesaz]

I don't think I got an answer on 111. At that time why were you voting Transcend and trying to get others to follow?

Because he was scummy and I explained it

Can you quote your explanation?

[davesaz]

Oh I'm still voting Dave. I had some questions for him but he never turned up to reply. I'm fine with either Dave or Bins.

I don't remember seeing any questions. Ask away.

[davesaz]

@Dave, I remember your defense of Transcend felt a tad strong, as if you knew he was town despite him just entering the game. Would you explain why you didn't/don't want players voting for Trans?

I am inherently suspicious of people who yell "xxx is scum vote with me" without even once giving a why.
I had no read on Trans at that point. It would not matter in the slightest who xxx was, I would want a reason. The questions were not to defend Trans, they were to sort Dunn.
I will make an exception when xxx has just done something that I find scummy, but in that case I'll usually explain myself while still asking the other(s) to see if they are using the same reasoning.

[davesaz]

I have lots of material to do logic analysis on but have not been able to put the time into it yet. It's obviously easier with flips.
Ranger's 367 contained a

joke

that was badly misread by several people.
I have meta on one of the people who misread the post, and that meta says his reaction to it is probably not AI.
Don't really like Bins but I'd have to review our previous games in common to find out if it matches meta. I suspect it's playstyle and not AI.

My style of forming reads is pretty much the opposite of Ranger's. She gets something out of the flow just reading for catchup. (whether it's real or manufactured takes a later review) I have to re-read and study, and even then sometimes don't get anything strong out of it at all. It is reread time, but this isn't the only thing I'm doing today so it's hard to say when I'll have results.

[davesaz]

287 More self-defense and pretty lame self-defense at that, basically saying it's okay to give vague cover-all-the-bases quasi-scumreads like he did. (No, it's not okay.)

It's my meta. It's not going to change. I don't do strong scumreads until there are flips, period. I have a wiki page, knock yourself out. Or you can just zip it.

302, 326: reiterating the question from 111. Spoiler alert: He does nothing with the answer he gets, because the answer never actually mattered.

Actually the answer does matter. TBH don't think I got a satisfactory one. Haven't done anything with it

yet

. See previous answer...

[davesaz]

@Dave, I remember your defense of Transcend felt a tad strong, as if you knew he was town despite him just entering the game. Would you explain why you didn't/don't want players voting for Trans?

I am inherently suspicious of people who yell "xxx is scum vote with me" without even once giving a why.
I had no read on Trans at that point. It would not matter in the slightest who xxx was, I would want a reason. The questions were not to defend Trans, they were to sort Dunn.
I will make an exception when xxx has just done something that I find scummy, but in that case I'll usually explain myself while still asking the other(s) to see if they are using the same reasoning.

Are you saying you found literally nothing scummy about Trans' entrance...?

Have you played with him before?

I didn't notice anything, haven't played with him before. Was trying to ask exactly what was allegedly noticed, preferably with a quote and analysis of why it's scummy.

[davesaz]

To Umlauut: This post was a reply to LQ, but the topic of the post was Dunn. I think you may have missed that aspect of it?
Trimming my reply to the point I think you're trying to make.

Why would Dunn panic so easily?

Let the record show dave never answered this.

Let the record show that I didn't notice it.
Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Also note the "and others".

Why didn't you notice it? Sometimes who does what? "and others" I was asking you not others.

4. Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you? (I think I know the answer and I'm not scumreading you atm, but still interested in what you actually say)

It appears to me that this post was interpreted as "throwing shade" on LQ (and Ranger which I snipped).
If you look more closely I was trying to get confirmation from LQ, in his own words, that the things that I was seeing and interpreting as town were indeed from town motivation. The way that someone answers a why question can be extremely revealing.

The Ranger part of that post was to warn people that Ranger is quite skilled at

looking

town and it can cause big problems if you form a read on her too early.

[davesaz]

I think I quoted the wrong post...

[davesaz]

i feel like if you were scum you'd probably make more of a push on dave than you did here. i think your fos here is justified, i think you should've thrown a vote his way or something, but it is what it is.

I often see scum do a dance around people just like what LQ did. Cast a little suspicion, wait till someone agrees, then sheep the case the other person makes.
The followup dialogue with LQ makes me doubt he's scum, but still got my eye on him.

Transcend is making an accusation against LQ, that he didn't push me hard enough. I reply that scum do that,

but I don't think it was scum motivated in this case

.
It really helps to read and understand the whole context, and not try to pick out individual pieces. Don't feel bad if you read this the wrong way though, at least 2 got it wrong.

[davesaz]

TBH I'd need to look at the posts between then and now. Back then it was really weak town.

[davesaz]

Which alignment needs to hide what they do? Which alignment can afford to be totally open? I'm being open...

Are you town for tunneling on it, or scum for ignoring the clear signs in the followup conversation?

[davesaz]

Starting my rereads. Transcend isn't doing anything that I would consider to be information gathering. I get a weak scum read from the overall effect. It feels like wanting to look active but not really knowing how to begin.

[davesaz]

Reread of Dunnstral - chatterbox, weak town based mostly on a desire for lively conversation being more likely to be town motivation than scum. Not sure I understand the motivation behind mentioning he's likely to be NK. Would like to see more explanations and less vote salesmanship.

Pedit: Ranger, can you give some explanation of why Transcend is in your top read tier? He's solid bottom third for me and it's unusual that we'd disagree so strongly on someone with a level trajectory in the game.

I give less weight to 372 for two reasons. One, I've seen LQ take things really literally before and so this wouldn't be abnormal, and two there is a pretty good percentage of people for whom challenging it on the setup comes more automatically than other kinds of challenges. That doesn't mean I put no faith in the tell, I just don't see it as strong as you do.

[davesaz]

Huh? Don't see you in the player list of that game.

[davesaz]

So what do you actually think of LQ then?

TBH I'd need to look at the posts between then and now. Back then it was really weak town.

Please explain how "choosing not to commit to long term memory everything I've read in the game" equates to scummy?
Lazy, I'm guilty of. Scummy, no.

[davesaz]

I give less weight to 372 for two reasons. One, I've seen LQ take things really literally before and so this wouldn't be abnormal, and two there is a pretty good percentage of people for whom challenging it on the setup comes more automatically than other kinds of challenges. That doesn't mean I put no faith in the tell, I just don't see it as strong as you do.

This is me having paid attention to something that LQ did, and giving an opinion on it.

[davesaz]

Do the ISO of Transcend, in any case, when your headache is better.

Have you seen anything else you'd call noteworthy?

[davesaz]

A plain farmer, what is your read on Umlaut?

What's yours?

[davesaz]

Tex, I skimmed Transcend's ISO and I'm not sure I see what you see. It just seems like post after post of meh. I don't like that he's sort of gliding along and giving mostly null reads without actually pushing any cases, but is this all you're talking about or is there something more?

That's a good characterization of the iso, but what do you think of it in terms of alignment?

[davesaz]

Ranger is voting me instead of LQ, even though LQ supposedly scumclaimed (he actually didn't). This is because I called Ranger scum-aligned, she wants me dead because I will expose her as scum-aligned while I'm alive.

An interesting theory, but what are you basing this on? Can you show her only scum reading you after you scum read her?

[davesaz]

Wait, what's your fourth scumread? I'd assume Tex based on the order of your last read list, but why?

texcat replaced Loopdan, who was incredibly scummy. Strike one.
Since then, texcat has continued to do basically nothing, and this runs contrary to the town-texcat I've become familiar with. Strike two.
Furthermore, texcat has bad interactions with LQ and iraonavp. Strike three.

Loopdan wasn't suspicious at all, and neither is texcat.

Has texcat (or loopdan) done anything that you can point to (post# or quote) that makes you confident in the slot being town? I'd like to get a handle on how you form town reads.

Pedit: It would also help if you would identify post# or quote where A plain farmer does things you find scummy.

[davesaz]

Go where?

FWIW I have mixed feelings. The wagon I want to join (Transcend) is on a player replacing out. I'd kinda like to see replacements and go from there. OTOH it's beneficial for town to have progress.

Too many people have scumreads which depend on associations, for this early in the game. While certain associative tells like chainsaw defense and coaching are occasionally useful, they're nowhere near reliable enough to have that be the only basis of a scumread.

[davesaz]

Titus, you said you'd need to talk with me but didn't ask any questions. What would you like to know?

A little nervous about Ranger's appeal to own authority plus "gee how can anyone miss this stuff".

Bins, nice job laying groundwork and switching to me pages later (without a case no less), but you're wrong. I haven't decided if this is scum trying to find a new cw, or just wrong.

[davesaz]

Iraonavp (5)- a plain farmer, Ranger, Dunnstral, Ümläüt, Titus
a plain farmer (2)- Zachalstrika, Iraonavp
Dunnstral (2)- RC, davesaz
Titus (3)- texcat, Smithereens, LicketyQuickety
davesaz (1) - Bins

Iraonavp - wagon is mostly townreads, one scumread
Titus - one weakscum, two townreads
APF - one town, one scumread
Dunnstral - one unknown, one town who should make up his mind :p
davesaz - one unknown

{Zachalstrika, davesaz}
{Ümläüt, Dunnstral, Smithereens}
{LicketyQuickety, Ranger}
{RC, Bins}
{texcat, APF}
{Titus, Ironavp}

I see too much in Ranger's posting which could be manipulative. LQ generally looks town but the reaction
still makes me question it a little. RC (Riddleton) hasn't said enough, and Bins has been too variable
so I'm leaving them as unknown. I liked enough of the case on APF to keep him in the weak scumread
tier along with texcat. Titus is based on Transcend with room for improvement.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

[davesaz]

I think it might have been easier to ask for a reads list.

Titus, why didn't you freak out like you did in the other game with this setup?

Who calls anyone null-aligned? Why aren't people just town or scum. Or even townreads and scumreads. The hyper sensitivity to including the -aligned modifier makes me think of someone trying to avoid being called out on being too definite in their reads. It's been bugging me the whole game, but null-aligned is a tipping point.

pedit: I was going to vote for Iraonavp but with Dunn's vote don't want an accidental hammer. Gotta post this and update my vc.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Iraonavp

L-1

[davesaz]

He doesn't always say aligned. Nobody is null aligned. Null is null not null aligned. But I already had a scum read.

[davesaz]

Not the only reason.

[davesaz]

To repeat.

There is no such thing as

null-aligned

.

There is null, but not null-aligned.

I have read other games where Ira was town and much looser with terminology. Here he's being overly careful. (pedit: and A Plain Farmer noticed that too)

But that's still not the

only

reason. Part of the reason was that now is the right time to have a L-1 from a town strategy point of view. Part of the reason is that he's scummy without the -aligned thing. That's going to take quotes, and my daughter wants frozen yogurt

now

.

[davesaz]

It's rather obvious that using "-aligned" is not AI even without that tangible evidence.

If it weren't every time, and if he hadn't used it for null too, then there might be a point for NAI.
But I really gotta go get that FroYo while the place is still open...

[davesaz]

And now Dave disappears. Gee textbook scum imho.

Look asshole, I

never

lie about RL events.
I went to BTO yogurt and spent about $13.

[davesaz]

And if Ira is such a fucking scumread then why are you busting my chops.

[davesaz]

And Bins sounds convinced enough that yelling at everyone that she's town-aligned will prove it that it makes me doubt myself.

Probably the scum-aligned players are the ones hiding in the shadows, like davesaz and a plain farmer.

Criticizes Bins for yelling she's town when he has been doing exactly the same thing himself.

[davesaz]

It is absolutely not solid at all.

@Mod: I request to be replaced out. I'm in too many games, and I'm having trouble keeping up. I can't post quality posts often enough.

Kappy clearly lied about replacing out, all that shows is that he's a bad person and doesn't want to be read as scum-aligned.

Dunnstral probably doesn't believe what he's saying and you're buying his nonsense. Smithereens, go back and read Kappy's ISO. There's no other reason to lead you to the conclusion that he's scum-aligned.

Modified Amished tell.

[davesaz]

Read it again. I was asking "why, if you're town," did you think this? That is, how can someone with a town mindset come to that train of thought?

I know, you didn't scumslip

. But you made an extremely scum-aligned post which could not be consistent with any stance on LicketyQuickety's alignment, not that you made any stance.

Underline added for emphasis.
The underlined sentence may be a scumslip in itself. I had given it the benefit of the doubt before, and probably still would now.

[davesaz]

In before someone asks -- it's Friday. I work an average of 10 hours on weekdays and often am falling asleep at my computer this time of night. A pissed off Dave is a productive Dave.

[davesaz]

Nope, I don't really care what you think. What I am doing is adding evidence that backs up what I already said, I already had ira as a scumread.
Did you fully read and understand the point about town strategy? I don't want to belabor the point if unnecessary.

[davesaz]

Hmm, so Dunn either doesn't have a strong read, or is very afraid of public opinion.

[davesaz]

Titus, need I remind you that you were dead wrong about me in the other C9++? And pretty much every game we've played together? You could use that meta to town's advantage, if you're town.
If you're scum, you're doing what I'd expect you to do.

[davesaz]

Bins there is no way you can say i have 0 town posts.
i would support a bins wagon, that is a totally scum position to take. Im a plausible mislynch.

[davesaz]

You really don't get it, do you.
Town!!Dave thinks Ira is scum, and votes him to ensure that

if town needs to change wagons we'll have enough time

.
In

this setup

getting to L-1 with several days on the deadline is

mandatory

.
Last game I played this as town, town wouldn't listen to me and fucked it up big time.

Town strategy is waaaayyyyy more motivation than "opportunism". Scum want us to no lynch, or wait until the last minute so we derp lynch a pr or something.

[davesaz]

Can't decide whether to because it's a game and you're having fun with it, or .

[davesaz]

Btw happy cakeday.

[davesaz]

Zach you're not dying n1 just chill

Probably the reason that Dunnstral was killed.

[davesaz]

Scummy can also be lack of townie. Lack of conviction, lack of scumhunting activity, narrow focus of interaction or avoidance of certain players, etc. I would need to reread to tell you if texcat matches this pattern...

Ranger matches the pattern of someone who could be scum confidently pushing cases, knowing they are wrong, but also knowing that they can manipulate certain members of town to follow them. It is very difficult to sort this pattern from someone who is town and confident and trying to lead.

Spoiler: for those who always see scum in the shadows

I match the pattern of someone who doesn't know what people's alignments are yet. Not the pattern of someone who doesn't want to decide until they see what town thinks.

[davesaz]

Ranger, we need to talk about why you're townreading Transcend and Smithereens as of this point. Neither of them belong in your top townreads.
I'm not going to post my continued catchup until I get a response.

I asked the same question regarding Transcend. Don't remember exactly when I asked it, whether it was before or after this point.

[davesaz]

@dave

Titus, why didn't you freak out like you did in the other game with this setup?

What is this question referring to/why was it asked?

It was a test which didn't yield any data given it was overlooked.

Spoiler: details

Titus and I were both town in a game. She did something that I didn't think town would do, I voted her, her reaction was rather strong.
No reaction this game to my voting her (under completely different circumstances) so I was going to ask her about the difference to see what developed from that question...

[davesaz]

I don't think RC's question is for me but...

We're lynching Smithereens, LQ, or Titus today unless something major happens in my catchup.

I don't see Titus as a short term lynch. Maybe later if expected things don't happen...
LQ I could go for. The late day vote for Ira looks like an attempt to get weak town credit for being pro-lynch at a time that some people seemed like they would drag out a no lynch.
Smithereens has had scummy looking moments but also some things that look like scumhunting. If upcoming time off from work translates to availability for mafia, I know what I want to review for a more definitive read. I'd be willing to lynch if nothing better comes along.

[davesaz]

Having reasoning for a read does not make the read good nor the reasoning correct.
You point to someone's action and say they would act that way if they knew the other person's alignment.
It is reasonable to think that there could be a correlation, and it is good play to follow it up. But it is fallacious to draw a strong causation without other evidence.
Because you (perhaps subconsciously) omit the possibility that there could be another more likely reason, you jump to a conclusion that the evidence does not support.

Take me "acting like I knew Transcend was town". People have asked me about this, and I very clearly explained that I would always ask the same type of question at that point in the game in order to find out the 2nd party (in this case Dunn's) alignment. You latched onto a single question early in the game and won't let go of thinking I had knowledge of Trans's alignment, despite my clear behavior the rest of the game. In fact, my changing read of Trans (and Titus) actively works against your theory.

[davesaz]

Due as in, for a prod?

[davesaz]

Zach you're not dying n1 just chill

Probably the reason that Dunnstral was killed.

This is coming straight out of left field. What the hell is this analysis dav?

What does it mean when someone tells a conftown (an obvious possible kill choice) that they won't be NK'd?

[davesaz]

I don't think Ranger is the only one scum reading you.

[davesaz]

I think LQ is more likely to be town than scum.
Ranger could be a GF and I think the argument that she would choose BP as a SK to be more WIFOM than certain.
I 2nd the request for a VC.

[davesaz]

There is a setup possibility where a scum Titus knows there isn't a cop, or at least strongly suspects there isn't one. In that case I could see her faking an inno for the town cred. However this possibility is more than balanced by my previous experiences with Titus. This game matches her PR meta, in fact she played the claim very similar to the way she played it in the last C9++ game we were both in. As a one-shot, once the ability is used there is no reason not to reveal it, and she tried to lay a trap with it and using a trap matches the last game exactly (she was a doc in the other game and used a different kind of trap). If it is a fake it won't last to LYLO because in that case the possible setups with a 1-shot will hopefully have been eliminated by that point.

There were multiple people suspicious of Ranger. The main question is not so much why choose Ranger, but why use the ability on N1 when it's likely that the target could be NK'd and the shot could be saved for another more scummy target. The answer to that is multifold -- she replaced into a scummy slot so there was real danger of falling into a lynch before the ability could be used, and Ranger is a player who you want to catch with a guilty early. Are there other targets? Sure, but that kind of second guessing can wait until postgame.

All in all it looks like a true claim. But neither is conftown.

[davesaz]

There is a setup possibility where a scum Titus knows there isn't a cop, or at least strongly suspects there isn't one. In that case I could see her faking an inno for the town cred. However this possibility is more than balanced by my previous experiences with Titus. This game matches her PR meta, in fact she played the claim very similar to the way she played it in the last C9++ game we were both in. As a one-shot, once the ability is used there is no reason not to reveal it, and she tried to lay a trap with it and using a trap matches the last game exactly (she was a doc in the other game and used a different kind of trap). If it is a fake it won't last to LYLO because in that case the possible setups with a 1-shot will hopefully have been eliminated by that point.

There were multiple people suspicious of Ranger. The main question is not so much why choose Ranger, but why use the ability on N1 when it's likely that the target could be NK'd and the shot could be saved for another more scummy target. The answer to that is multifold -- she replaced into a scummy slot so there was real danger of falling into a lynch before the ability could be used, and Ranger is a player who you want to catch with a guilty early. Are there other targets? Sure, but that kind of second guessing can wait until postgame.

All in all it looks like a true claim. But neither is conftown.

This post reads so weird to me. Don't know if I like it or not.

I have run into this a lot. Gut players don't like logic perhaps?

[davesaz]

Is that question open to anyone?

[davesaz]

VOTE: texcat
Trying to fit LQ's actions into the read.

[davesaz]

L-2 by my count.

[davesaz]

Please texcat may be innocent fo-


Hold on a fucking minute texcat wants to lynch LQ who MOSTLY ALL OF YOU SEE AS SCUM AND YOU VOTE THERE???

Holy fucking swordfish Batman there is scum on texcat wagon

Please lynch a plain farmer tomorrow

Please do not lynch LQ tomorrow

If you weren't an IC I'd want to vote you for this logic. First thing, not everyone on the texcat wagon thinks LQ is scum. My reason is specifically because texcat's case on LQ seems forced. I'm town, if you think texcat is town and we have an unconfirmed inno on Ranger, then who is the scum there? Second thing, if you really think a plain farmer is scum, why not try to get him lynched today? I'd be willing to go there if it seemed a lynch was possible. Try to convince people with evidence.

[davesaz]

Keyword is mostly, you'll notice I said mostly all of you.

Farmer has barely interacted today and is on texcat just because texcat is stronger in his gut. I can't pull out shit from thin air to case him with.

That is a case -- absence of town can be the best scum case. Most of what I remember about your posting has been just "lynch x, don't lynch y", but if you gave this type of info before it's possible I just missed it. (I was already skimming over the 4th weekend, and then the downtime...)

[davesaz]

I can say I'm town. I can say you're scum because you can't say that with the power I can, or even Ranger can, until I see a flip.

I can also say RC is scum.

I think you're using "can" to mean it's a possibility, as in "it's possible you're scum, it's possible RC is scum".
If you're trying to say you think I

am

scum, then you're not reading what I'm typing, or at least not interpreting it correctly.

[davesaz]

I'm saying it sort of like that but I didn't miss what you said. I've seen nothing from you or RC that tells me more town than scum and you guys being on texcat is icing on the cake.

1105 is the only thing anyone should need to be able to town read me.
Let me reinforce that some more. I want a L-1 in the next 3 days. I'd prefer it to be on someone in my probable scum list, but that isn't a requirement.

[davesaz]

Can I have a sentence or 3 on why he's scum pretty please? Apologies if you did this and I missed it.


I get that you're RC and you're awesome but I'd be as stupid as my dad thinks I am if I blindly sheeped.

If I am scum right now I am bussing. pinkie promise.

One of the reasons I think you probably aren't scum is that you not only bus, you put on a huge show. The show isn't happening, so it feels more like the game where I was a BG and you jumped in my shit for not trying to protect you when I thought your quiet play was scummy.

[davesaz]

I'm willing to look back at Smithereens, but before I put in that effort to start my weekend, what's the case?

[davesaz]

You have a comprehension problem. 1626 does not ask for a lynch, it asks for a L-1. With days left on the deadline. Apply a few neurons to that statement.
If I were scum I'd want town to scramble for a compromise with 10 minutes left.

[davesaz]

We had L-1 on texcat. What did you learn from that?

LQ voting to make the L-1 and then immediately unvoting was creepy but typical for LQ.
We did not get out of it what town needs to get from a L-1, which is either intent from someone, time spent at L-1 to see if scum will hammer it, or a claim.

[davesaz]

We had L-1 on texcat. What did you learn from that?

LQ voting to make the L-1 and then immediately unvoting was creepy but typical for LQ.
We did not get out of it what town needs to get from a L-1, which is either intent from someone, time spent at L-1 to see if scum will hammer it, or a claim.

This looks a lot like a scum claim. It looks like you know that I am going to flip town. Why else would scum hammer me? And why do you want to force claims from town? So you'll know who to NK???

If

scum will hammer it. As in I don't know...
You will also please remember that it's not you specifically I want at L-1, it's someone. I'd prefer it to be a scumread of mine. You do happen to fit that category but you're not the only one.

I do not want a claim with hours or minutes left, after it's too late to switch. I want it days ahead of time, if there is one. Scum would not want a claim at all, because they'd prefer to lynch a possible PR without giving town time to change our minds.

[davesaz]

I'm willing to look back at Smithereens, but before I put in that effort to start my weekend, what's the case?

^ I don't like this post. I just ended a game where this is literally all scum said.

Did you look at whether I was doing things other than making the quoted post? (the fact I'm asking should be a hint )

Does kinda make me wonder whether anyone replied, so thanks for that at least.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Smithereens

Fair enough I just want some god damned progress that isn't LQ ( or texcat right now) PREFERABLY farmer but that seems to be a tall order for town.

I'm willing to look back at Smithereens, but before I put in that effort to start my weekend, what's the case?

@Zach, what was the reason you wanted Smithereens?
I have meta that he acts this way as town. Haven't seen a scum game...

[davesaz]

I know I'm never a paragon of loquaciousness, but we seem to have slammed on the brakes.

[davesaz]

That angle may have merit, but I'll refrain from saying why I think so at this time.
If it were SvS who do you like for a 3rd scum? We don't know for sure if it's 2 or 3, and I know association before flip, but thoughts?

[davesaz]

I'm willing to go either way. Let's pick one...

[davesaz]

Only 1 day 5 hours.

VOTE: Smithereens

[davesaz]

I think my vote was L-2

[davesaz]

I find them both equally scummy. Zach prefers Smith.

[davesaz]

Deadline is in 0 days, 23 hours, 52 minutes

Why did you move to texcat?

[davesaz]

Actually I took the stance that I wanted a L-1 immediately. It's a clearly town stance.

[davesaz]

That was something like 4 days ago, and since then everyone else has sat on their thumbs

[davesaz]

I'm controlling my anger here instead of claiming.
Fuck off.
VOTE: texcat

[davesaz]

read the damn setup.

[davesaz]

With so many chances to have another PR in the setup, we needed to move quicker.
Both to get off the lynch if we hit one of the possible PR's, and to reveal a save target if we do have a protect available. If VT claim then lynch anyway and take our chances.
Sorry I snapped at you. I was starting to feel like I'd have to do something stupid like draw a NK to get town to wake up.

[davesaz]

@mod, does Postie get an extension to read in?

[davesaz]

disregard, I missed the extension in the vc post.

I still agree with not waiting till the last second.

[davesaz]

Nice shot by the vig. At least CMV for the setup, with at most 4 T's. This rules out the 5T case with a SK. Definitely 2 scum left (3T with a goon and RB, or 1T with GF and RB). Beyond that it is antitown to speculate until we decide to massclaim. Even though we could clear Ranger if it's the 3T case, it is better to keep scum guessing on how many and who the PRs are.

Deep analysis may show at least one partner for Ümläüt. I don't think we should be in a hurry here. No claims yet, as we might be able to lynch scum.

[davesaz]

Who was Dunnstral scumreading?

A quick glance at his ISO is mostly 1-liners, and it's not apparent he had any consistent reads.

[davesaz]

Bigger question is why only one kill N1, but digging hard on that is not a priority. Finding associations with Ümläüt is the priority.

[davesaz]

LQ has defended Ümläüt and Bins to a degree.

[davesaz]

Well I feel vindicated about Umlaut, so I'll need to reread there to find two scumbuddies

Did you have a scumread there? I've been digging through ISOs to find out everyone's stance on Ümläüt, haven't got to yours yet.

[davesaz]

Someone must have thought he was either scummy or useless. Or made a snap decision based on the texcat flip. I'm perfectly fine with the reason being withheld for now in case it's VV.
I can't remember if I read through Umlaut and didn't see an obvious outbound connection, or if I started at it the opposite way looking for connections back to him. It was too late at night, should have taken notes.

Zach being alive could point either way on APF. Not being a threat and being too obvious a threat are both equally valid. Kinda makes me want to think through how many mistakes we can afford and consider lynching APF anyway just to eliminate the wifom before lylo. But I still want to use as much time as possible trying to figure the logic.

[davesaz]

Heavy work day, now on an outing with my sons scout troop. May post later tonight.

[davesaz]

I would like to see more people give a thumbs up or down on massclaim.

[davesaz]

At this point I don't give a shit about any of the PRs dying because Ranger is more valuable than any of them so I'm going to say we should massclaim right now.
The claim order is going to be as follows:
{LQ, Postie, APF, Bins, Davesaz, RC, Ranger}

If we do this, I want you and Ranger before me, and Ranger before Bins.

LQ, Postie, APF, Ranger, Bins, RC, Dave

[davesaz]

Ranger going last could fakeclaim something to take it to 1T making her not a GF. She has an inno but is not confirmed.

[davesaz]

@Mod: Is Ranger due a prod?

(Is mod due a prod? )

[davesaz]

I think I said that wrong.

If she's scum (and a GF) then if she goes last she has an idea of what is safer to fakeclaim. Where if she goes early in the order she doesn't know who will claim what, so can't guess what to CC to get a 1v1 she might win.

[davesaz]

That's not very helpful. How does it help to let potential scum go last? What's wrong with what I said?

[davesaz]

So remind me who you think is scum?

[davesaz]

You left off yourself.

[davesaz]

I'm not too interested in that meta q/a thing. If it's RC asking the questions and grading the answers, it's not an impartial test.

I tried looking at just the VC patterns and got nowhere. I could look at the circumstances of key votes but it feels like a game where scum haven't been forced to make hard choices.

If the people who have softed PR are all PRs, then the only thing better than massclaim in this situation is lynching someone who is not a PR and catching scum.
If anyone is lying about it then we'll get a CC and a clear 1v1 to replace the directionless mess we have now.
Even if we did mostly all agree to massclaim, the near unanimous first choice said he's not participating short of L-1.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety
Ok,

L-1

it is.

[davesaz]

I tried to stop the LQ lynch since Day 0 b tw

How many times have you played with LQ?

[davesaz]

Helpful that is not.

[davesaz]

Assuming Bins is actually full doc, I know the exact letters for the setup and would like to use that information to nail any fake claims. The only way to do that without revealing the full setup to everyone else, and therefore telling everyone exactly what to claim, is for me to go last. RC, I don't care how well you think you know C9++ in general, my full knowledge of which roles exist in this game trumps that. We can even solve this if Bins is lying, but I need to be last for that case as well.

[davesaz]

Spoiler: rant

Part of me wants to go toe to toe with RC and see who wields more votes, but there's a chance he's the vig and I'd hate to throw the game on a vendetta. When I say I know more,

I know more

. Pull your head out of your ass, you're not God's gift to mafia. I've been playing so long I don't even remember when I started, and I racked up a win streak of 13 games as all alignments on another site. My RL job involves applying logic to finding bugs in million line programs when all I have is the postmortem memory contents of variables which may or may not have been corrupted. A logical inconsistency breaks the game wide open, and RC wants to remove all possibility that someone makes a mistake in claiming.

I'm perfectly willing to claim, but I'll give RC one more chance to see the light that the chance of catching someone in a lie drops to zero the moment I reveal. The person who has the information should go last.

[davesaz]

CMDDDVT is the setup. I protected Zach and Bins. I knew Bins was either doc or scum from her reaction toward me near the end of D2, but didn't know if she was 1-shot or full.

[davesaz]

Popcorn RC

[davesaz]

DDD is two full docs. Having comprehension problems?

@RC: Did you claim VT? If you did, I missed it. In any case, I'm a full doc.

@MOD: are blocked shots by 1-shot roles refunded?

[davesaz]

Gah, we have to wait for Ranger.

[davesaz]

Now you're the one who missed a claim.
I protected the only conftown N1, Zach.
Unlike the game you jumped me for not bodyguarding when I didn't know who town was.

[davesaz]

I tried to shoot dave N1 (sorry ) but was blocked. And of course I got my man N2.

When I play a PR, I aim for scummy enough to be safe from NK, while town enough to not get mislynched. It's a gamble when setup has a possible vig.
Got a pre-existing scumread of Umlaut to back that claim up?

[davesaz]

We need the mod's answer on the refunded shot too.

[davesaz]

Let's not play whack the setup.
Bins, how did you choose your target? I explained mine quite clearly.

[davesaz]

@APF I did that on everyone, to look for a partner. It wasn't all that helpful, but I can look again.

Pedit: Only the mod can confirm people. We have Ranger left to claim, and a 1-shot who claimed two shots.

[davesaz]

Ah, that's something that varies from game to game / mod to mod. Thanks for clarifying.

Bins and APF can't have both been RB'd, so we have a nice 1v1.
We still

wait for Ranger

. It is

very

important that we do this.

[davesaz]

Actually it isn't a 100% 1v1, as scum and sk could have double killed.

@MOD please verify, doc protects only one kill?

I know, silly question but I really believe in being extra safe.

[davesaz]

I feel like we're being manipulated, and it's not a good feeling.

[davesaz]

Ranger check the flips. Bins you made a wrong assumption about who the manipulator is.

[davesaz]

WTF is this guy doing at L-2 already?

Last time I got crazy-fastwagoned like this on D1, the second, third, and fourth people on the wagon were all scum. This was on a different site with a lower standard of play, though. I'm pretty sure veteran players here wouldn't be quite so blatant.

Kappy isn't a veteran player, though, and I notice that in his first game on MS he got nabbed as scum for pretty much the same maneuver. I'm curious whether he would try the same thing so soon when it backfired so badly before. Need to do some more background reading on everyone else for comparison.

(Actually I'm tempted to vote Kappy just for killing my jokey vote by explaining it.)

Umlaut

(5) -

Loopdan

texcat

,

Kappy

Iraonavp

,

Riddleton

RC,

Smithereens

Postie, davesaz.

Oh, look -- RC slot and Postie slot are 3 and 4 on that wagon, and LQ is the one who got alarmed at it. Numbers suggest at least one scum was indeed on this early RVS wagon.

What sent me back here was RC quoting LQ/me and saying it isn't SvS. Which of course it isn't but it did make me interested in what LQ was concerned about back then. LQ's concern was not this wagon, it was something that happened later.

Pedit: what's the count?

[davesaz]

I've seen transcend posting in forums before. He has a really shit sense of humour so I'm going to dismiss that as null.


UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dunn

VOTE: Transcend
That introduction was really gross. Pointing a finger at someone who hasn't even posted yet is weird and the follow-up post smells more like backpedalling than clarification.

Dunnstrall is an easy target and I don't like seeing Smithereens and Davesaz both jump off of me and onto him like that.

I gave a weak reason for voting Dunn (later revealed to have been a reaction test) and Smithereens gives none. Umlaut criticizes both of us while calling Dunn an easy target. Umlaut presses me later but I don't remember if he pressed the

Smithereens

Postie slot. If he didn't then it points towards weak distancing from Postie.

LQ thought my Dunn was weak and our interaction on that point was to find out if his reaction to it was genuine or if he was sizing me up for a potential mislynch. I don't remember if LQ joined in when Umlaut was pushing me or not. Together this point and the previous one I posted leads me to Postie being more likely scum than LQ. Can't rule LQ out.

I can't rule out mr. cunning manipulator either. Would scum!RC lay low, trying to target PRs first, and wait for a vulnerable time to take charge? Initially I thought town meta but the big fights today match the tone (but maybe not content) of his scum game from an earlier game.

Of the claimed VT's I've settled on Postie, RC, LQ, Ranger from most scummy to least.

Do not rule out Bins + RC just because RC was pushing Bins. I witnessed Titus + RC doing pretty much the same thing as Bins+RC today, in a game where RC and I were scum together and Titus replaced in. In that game Titus and RC even planned the theater in scumchat the night before.

Pedit: My vote on LQ is left over from the massclaim. There were two reasons wanting a L-1 there, I have not followed up on the 2nd.

[davesaz]

And nobody comments on it.

VOTE: Postie

[davesaz]

VOTE: RC

[davesaz]

I have RC as my 2nd highest scumread. I'm not being bad at all. I'm serious that this would be a good lynch.

This isn't your town, if you're town at all. I've had enough of you trying to tell people what to do.
No, I'm not going to protect you. There isn't much point, given I'm the obvious NK anyway.

[davesaz]

RC is scum trying to get us to lynch any town. It's just as plain as if he shouted it himself.
I don't think I want to change my vote now even to avoid a no lynch. By the dawn of the next game day one of us is gone.

[davesaz]

I was obvtown to you before, explain the change. You're unwilling to admit that someone else might have an equal or better grasp of town strategy. Assume that is the case -- I'm obvtown because the town strategy I've been pushing is correct. My claimed actions are obviously town motivated. A large part of my scumread on you is your theatrical approach to massclaim, pushing Bins, pushing me. These are things that scum have to do when faced with so many obvtown. I can't see town you needing so badly to be the leader that you have to push town like this. The theatrical game is a perfect match for the game we were scum together.

Why LQ over Postie? Do we have time to mess around? I'm getting a large portion of my Postie scumread on predecessor actions, in particular those surrounding the Umlaut flashRVS wagon D1.

[davesaz]

DAVESAZ YOU ARE LITERALLY TRYING TO CONVINCE ME THAT I AM SCUM. YOU ARE TRYING TO CONVINCE SOMEONE YOU ARE SAYING IS SCUM TO VOTE FOR TOWN REASONS. STOP. YOU GET NO SAY.

No, I'm trying to convince everyone else that you are scum.

[davesaz]

I hope RC is town and right. I think he's scum and wrong, but unlike some people here I assume there are cases where I could be wrong, and I'm willing to take that chance.
VOTE: LQ

[davesaz]

VOTE: RC
Back to this. Manipulating. QED.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

VOTE: rc

[davesaz]

@MOD: Strategic replace out is ban worthy. I suggest replacing him anyway.

[davesaz]

If you had not switched to LQ, who do you think might have been lynched,huh?

I'd say more likely you lost the game no matter what, because if you're scum we'll lynch you and your partner, and if you're town then you threw the game by fucking around instead of staying on your scumread.

[davesaz]

Last I checked you're voting town.
Consider me to be off the table, and solve the game that way.
Not that I'm likely to listen to someone with a "cunning manipluator" badge, when the whole ISO is full of cunning manipulation.

[davesaz]

Oh, and if your case on me is that I have a cunning manipulator badge and therefore I must be cunningly manipulating you then we're not going to get far.

My case is that you are being manipulative. Even in your last few posts you're still slinging scumreads at everyone but the IC.
We need a rational approach. Some people can be eliminated from a POV of being painfully obvious in their motivations and honest in their claims.
Instead of POE when it totally makes sense to use that as a strategy, you're doing the anyone but me shuffle.

Now you'll accuse me of trying to convince you that you're scum. Nope, just proving that my scumread is genuine and based on real analysis.

[davesaz]

I suppose voting for me doesn't count?
And voting LQ wasn't supposed to mean you had a scumread there?

[davesaz]

Ranger / Postie / RC / Bins -- pick 2.
I saved you N1 and mafia RB'd APF. You're conf, and I better be or town is without hope.

Bins is 50/50 -- either she's doc and both SK and scum picked the same nk, or she's scum and was trying to rolefish the doc.
If the two other town could just agree on a scum then we'd have a chance. But we have 3/4 of the remaining people at each other's throats and the 4th is hardly here.
If we NL then scum pick which of us to kill and the other faces the same 4 players down one conf / should be conf.

[davesaz]

I'm actually talking about early in the day, D2(?) when you said something along the lines of what are the chances there are 3 docs. Which IIRC came shortly after I pointed out Dunn's "don't worry Zach you're safe" comment as the reason he might have been killed.

[davesaz]

I protected you, and expected scum to RB you and kill me.

[davesaz]

Despite not being 100% sure, the only right way to play it as town is to assume we're both docs and lynch a vanilla claim.

[davesaz]

Waiting for a replacement.

[davesaz]

Your behavior is manipulative.

[davesaz]

Quit trying to be manipulative and maybe I'll forget. That means letting people do their thing instead of trying to tell them what to do.
Final warning.

[davesaz]

How about this question for everyone -- what's your read for most likely scumteam? I'm far more interested in seeing that than endless posts reiterating how pretty much any combo not including yourself could be scum.

[davesaz]

please chill

RC who were you talking to for most of that?

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

Or trying to talk to...

[davesaz]

Bins conveniently left out the scenario where she is the doc who is lying.

If the setup is TTTDMVC (Bins is lying):
{Bins, Vedith}
{Bins, RC}
In this setup Ranger can't be scum -- there is no godfather and so Titus's clear is good.

@RC, your last post hurts town. When are you going to fully absorb the idea that I'm quite capable of making my own decisions. In fact I'm less likely to do the obvious if someone tells me I have to do it.

[davesaz]

So, it comes down to either trusting my analysis of VCs and interactions, or trusting my gut.

Gut says that the RC vs Bins thing is preplanned scum theater. According to that gut read they're both trying to manipulate me into doing the obvious but wrong thing.

Analysis says that the player most likely to be aligned with Umlaut is Smithereens->Postie->Vedith. Then we have Vedith's horrible entry where I would think a player truly following town motivation would at least read enough to find the claims. If it's a scum replace in, it's gotta be attempting to avoid creating an association with the remaining scum.

VOTE: Vedith
Gotta go with the evidence and trust the analysis.

[davesaz]

OK, my gut reads are much better than I thought then. Now I just need to work on better defenses against AtE. Though it's questionable whether I'd be able to marshal a majority anyway...

[davesaz]

VOTE: Bins
2 goons ==> 1 doc

[davesaz]

We would have had Postie a day earlier if RC had stayed on her. I misinterpreted his flipflopping as scum and didn't want a no-lynch with so many unknown. It would have been autowin at that point, as town could then afford to pick wrong on the doc claims and still lynch the other one.

[davesaz]

Of the claimed VT's I've settled on Postie, RC, LQ, Ranger from most scummy to least.

And nobody comments on it.

VOTE: Postie

We would have had Postie a day earlier if RC had stayed on her. I misinterpreted his flipflopping as scum and didn't want a no-lynch with so many unknown. It would have been autowin at that point, as town could then afford to pick wrong on the doc claims and still lynch the other one.

YOU WERENT EVEN FUCKING PUSHING POSTIE SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU WERE DEFENDING HER TOO.

I was voting Postie and had her as top scumread, after posting analysis showing that slot as being aligned with Umlaut.
If someone tells you that your behavior is messing with their ability to read the game, you should change the behavior not double down on it.

[davesaz]

Massclaim was the right thing.

You

asking for it was the wrong thing.

When you have a reputation for being manipulative, don't be manipulative as town!

It doesn't matter if you were right.

Your behavior was what lost the game.

[davesaz]

Massclaim was the right thing.

You

asking for it was the wrong thing.

When you have a reputation for being manipulative, don't be manipulative as town!

It doesn't matter if you were right.

Your behavior was what lost the game.

Disagree here.

Everyone is manipulative. You cannot ask for RC to just shut that off.


His hammer was badbut you cannot ask him to stop manipulating.

I wanted Postie the day before and had RC as lock town, until the theater got to the point that it was possible it was any 2 of RC/Bins/Postie.

And no, everyone is not manipulative. That's a misconception that gets me mislynched a lot. I'm never manipulative as town. Everything I say as town is 100% true, or at least I believe it to be true at the time. Most of the time the true thing I'm saying is that I don't know who the scum are. People on this site don't expect it, they expect town to make shit up and see what sticks.