Open 670: Near Vanilla (Over)

[Sesq]

I don't agree with the associative tells (528 actually makes more sense with 402 rather than the opposite which Music Box implies) but I agree with the end-game. D1 reeked of scum v/s town.

Vote: Sesq

My alternative is Hawk - no chance you'll get my vote on Riley.

MY GOD PLEASE PUT POST TAGS AROUND YOUR NUMBERS

Also, what end-game do you agree with? We're in the middle of it right now. Also, you can't just say something "reeks" of x (in this case, scum vs town) without evidence. Well, you can, but it's stupid.

Magna derailed your wagon to Lowell's.
Riley said she would hammer if you got to L-1.

As for the first, I was actually refusing to get on Lowell's wagon if you remember, and when it was at L-1 I was like heyyyy slow down.

As for the second, I don't see how that says anything other than they scumread me...

You really should be able to see how scum you would say things like that about lowel's wagon once it reached l-1.

We can sit here and discuss how we wont have conclusive evidence about how you are scum but you really need to start proposing alternatives instead of just defending yourself. You are not scumhunting. Why?

No, I really don't, unless they were on the wagon themselves, which I was not.

Also, the reason I'm defending myself is because I'm getting bad arguments thrown at me. I'm going to defend myself. As for scumhunting, I've already pointed out that we should be looking for associative tells with Magna, as he's the only confirmed scum right now. Could have also been a case where I thought I remembered saying it, but didn't, but regardless I'm saying that now.

[Sesq]

Based on associative tells and Magna's activity levels with each person, Music Box and Riley stood out most. Kind of on Hawk, too.

[Hiraki]

MY GOD PLEASE PUT POST TAGS AROUND YOUR NUMBERS

No.

Also, what end-game do you agree with?

That he is scum.

Also, you can't just say something "reeks" of x (in this case, scum vs town) without evidence. Well, you can, but it's stupid.

I'm done with your holier than thou complex this game and forever frankly.

What's your case on Hawk?

Read.

[Toto]

Hiraki, don't be a bitch, just explain your read dude. Please, if you are town, just fucking collaborate.

[Hiraki]

If I post anything it will just be quotes of things I've already said.

[Toto]

That's ok. If you can please summarise, or point me at the post numbers that be great.

[Sesq]

MY GOD PLEASE PUT POST TAGS AROUND YOUR NUMBERS

No.

Also, what end-game do you agree with?

That he is scum.

Also, you can't just say something "reeks" of x (in this case, scum vs town) without evidence. Well, you can, but it's stupid.

I'm done with your holier than thou complex this game and forever frankly.

What's your case on Hawk?

Read.

When I said "end-game", I meant what time period were you referring to. The rest of this post is anti-town as hell.

[Toto]

Based on associative tells and Magna's activity levels with each person, Music Box and Riley stood out most. Kind of on Hawk, too.

Provide evidence

[Hiraki]

ISO 63, 64, 72, 79

Doesn't help when you have these as well from MoI ISO: 7, 8, 28, 45, 52, 54 - gonna quote this just to push this a little harder:

This is one of the first empty MoI is scum drops that I want to see more about …

Why is it “reasonable” for there to be one scum in two players? I’d like to see your line of thought for this.

[Sesq]

Based on associative tells and Magna's activity levels with each person, Music Box and Riley stood out most. Kind of on Hawk, too.

Provide evidence

Yeah, even with minimal explanation there was more to be explained here. Basically what I was seeing from MoI was very minimal surface-level engagement with MB and Riley. If you ISO the three of them together, there is almost zero engagement between the three. It's rather disturbing.

ISO 63, 64, 72, 79

Doesn't help when you have these as well from MoI ISO: 7, 8, 28, 45, 52, 54 - gonna quote this just to push this a little harder:

This is one of the first empty MoI is scum drops that I want to see more about …

Why is it “reasonable” for there to be one scum in two players? I’d like to see your line of thought for this.

USE. POST. TAGS. PLEASE.

Also, just saying "look at dese post!" doesn't really cut it. It's like leaving a pile of evidence at a courtroom with zero explanation expecting it to speak for itself. Also, not sure whose ISO the first line is pointing at.

[Hiraki]

If I post anything it will just be quotes of things I've already said.

Hiraki spoonfeeds for the one and only time in D4.

[hapahauli]

Elena

and

Hiraki

come across as prob-town from the Magna flip.

Elena's EoD 1 push on Magna, followed by her continued push on him at the beginning of D2 seem very unnecessary from a mafia perspective. Her play doesn't make much sense as Magna's scumbuddy here.

Similarly, Magna pushed Hiraki pretty hard. While one could argue that Nebula was always Magna's priority (and hence Magna really didn't "intend" for Hiraki to die), the strength of the push, combined with Magna's extremely aggressive questioning and discrediting of Hiraki reads a lot more like a mislynch attempt.

Toto

has come across as town to me all game. He's active in the discussion, seems fearless with his opinions, and actively pushing his scumreads.

Definitely not lynching into any of these guys today.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think Hawk comes across as looking the worst upon my readthrough. The post where he decides on the Elena vs. Nebula debate is really scummy.

Well I want to believe Elena, I find it odd the BBT and Hapu both come into d2 and point towards Elena but didn't say anything d1 about it. BBT instructed/requested a hammer on Lowell which I can see being scum motivated but that makes me question whether MoL was derailing Sesq or not. Sesq meanwhile questioned the lynch end of d1 near the end despite having moved his vote much more than his counter wagon Nebula. This combined with Nebula holding hard on Sesq till it seemed like Lowell's wagon was gaining actual traction makes me feel uncomfortable about the Elena situation as its indicative that she was either distancing or actually well and truly not paying attention to the game state :/

So maybe that kinda makes sense why I feel like somewhere between the two of you there should be scum? I'm not ruling out T on both of you but if that's so it doesn't make sense for one you to push through on Lowell's lynch so calmly while multiple people SR you slightly ignored Elena for some reaching logic about Lowell not remembering Elena in his TR's. Like I don't mind that Lowell got lynched. I followed that logic because it seemed sound enough and his play besides that pinged me as coasting scum but like everything is lining up weirdly...

He spends the entire first part of this post talking about how the Elena situation makes him uncomfortable. I don't really "get" the analysis, however the validity isn't important. It's the general purpose and structure of the post that's scummy. If I'm reading this correctly:

1) He analyzes the situation in paragraph 1, seemingly talking about Sesq and Nebula's interactions with Lowell.
2) He concludes that there should be 1 scum between Sesq and Nebula.
3) He immediately discredits his analysis by saying he's not ruling out TvT.
4) He provides a post-hoc justification for having voted Lowell.

This post is just a mess, and I don't see the purpose of it. The two things that stick out as scummy are him discrediting the validity of his own analysis immediately after posting it, and justifying his vote on Lowell unprompted, as if he feels guilty about it somehow.

And in the following post, he's going to vote Nebula on the basis of this analysis, after not having ruled out a TvT situation.

Nothing in this post makes sense, and it reads very bullshitty.

VOTE: Hawk

[hapahauli]

And just for emphasis - that's not some random post I'm picking out from his filter. That post is the core reasoning of how he decided where to place his vote on the D2 lynch.

[Hiraki]

I can follow this.

Unvote, Vote: Hawk

Nebula's flip incriminates Hawk just as much as it does to MoI.

[hapahauli]

Hiraki, can you explain your Riley read? I haven't seen anything in your filter that suggests you think she's town. I'm at somewhat of a loss about how to read her, and anything would help.

[Hiraki]

Hapahauli - mostly in the moment reads. Especially considering that Riley could've gone with the flow but decided to go against it. Read her posts at face value - they're hard to read but the substance underneath is very good.

Based on MoI associations, where do you think Sesq lies?

[hapahauli]

I'll look into Riley with that in mind tomorrow morning.

Sesq is my best guess at mafia #2 right now. From the associations with MoI, a few things stick out:
1) MoI throws Sesq a ton of soft-ball questions and interacts with him a fair amount.
2) A lot of the time MoI spends "defending Sesq" is more actively discrediting suspicion on Sesq, rather than calling Sesq town and providing independent reasons for town-Sesq.

I also think a Hawk/Sesq team works very well, given the post I analyzed above. Hawks' whole "I think Sesq vs. Neb is SvT for ????????? reasons but voting Nebula" reads like Hawk knows that the wagon is SvT, but can't really provide good reasons for thinking that. The vote on Nebula is a pretty convenient choice given the situation.

[hapahauli]

In fairness to Sesq though, he can't really defend against an associative case, hence I'd rather be lynching Hawk first here.

[Hiraki]

I'm glad we're agreeing very well.

[Toto]

Hap whats your read on Mb?

[Riley Cake]

In fairness to Sesq though, he can't really defend against an associative case, hence I'd rather be lynching Hawk first here.

HAWK IS A SHE!!!!

And like I said I townread Sesq!!!! The reason I didn't hammer her was COS A QUICKHAMMER WOULD BE DUMB!!! and I wanted to gobble up other people by that time...

Sorry for not posting at all yesterday!!!

VOTE: Hawk

[Riley Cake]

WAIT WAIT WAIT!!! I mean sesq is a she ^^

[Riley Cake]

MUSIC BOX AND TOTO!!! Dontcha think it's wayyyy to early to say I'm scum because i'm partners with Sesq when Sesqy hasn't even flipped yet?? THAT'S JUST SILLY!!! You'll find yourself barking up the wrong three!!!!

[Sesq]

I'll look into Riley with that in mind tomorrow morning.

Sesq is my best guess at mafia #2 right now. From the associations with MoI, a few things stick out:
1) MoI throws Sesq a ton of soft-ball questions and interacts with him a fair amount.
2) A lot of the time MoI spends "defending Sesq" is more actively discrediting suspicion on Sesq, rather than calling Sesq town and providing independent reasons for town-Sesq.

I also think a Hawk/Sesq team works very well, given the post I analyzed above. Hawks' whole "I think Sesq vs. Neb is SvT for ????????? reasons but voting Nebula" reads like Hawk knows that the wagon is SvT, but can't really provide good reasons for thinking that. The vote on Nebula is a pretty convenient choice given the situation.

I didn't scumread him because he didn't have any scummy things in his posts, outside of the doctor claim. Associative tells go both ways.

As for associative shit, it makes me kind of skeptical on Hawk as there due to his interactions with Magna (in fact, an early vote on Hawk was placed seemingly without the wagon being a thing.)

MUSIC BOX AND TOTO!!! Dontcha think it's wayyyy to early to say I'm scum because i'm partners with Sesq when Sesqy hasn't even flipped yet?? THAT'S JUST SILLY!!! You'll find yourself barking up the wrong three!!!!

No, but Magna has, and there's links there, kinda. 1385 confuses me.

[Music Box]

Also, even if this is a good point on her, how does that make me scum?

It doesn't necessarily. That part was more about Riley than you.

What else would "I don't feel comfortable with this, everyone should move over to nebula" mean? If I were scum, what reason would I have not to go on Lowell's wagon?

Maybe you thought it would look town? Or were still hoping for a Nebula lynch? I don't know what was in your mind there but to me it looked like you were nudging the wagon along.