OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[Realeo]

Real is town
Comm is town
I'm town

Leaving Fitz as Mafia by PoE

I forgot to clarify this.

Why Comm > Fitz? PoE suggesting you townreading him, but why?

[Realeo]

Eh, Fitz replaced Gamma, not Comm. You're supposed to townread Comm then?

[Realeo]

*Fitz then?

[Realeo]

WAIT. WAIT. WAIT.

EVERYONE STOPS.

Ok.

So let me drop the act. RC, I know you are werewolf, ok?

But here's the issue.

It is true that the correct move is to lynch BTD. That is the correct action be assured that we town would support it.

However, what's your plan for N4? You missed your chance to kill Flubber.

Now let me tell you something. The kill list would be probably {Realeo,kmd,???} with ??? is not Flubber.

If ??? is your partner (which I can tell you, they haven't figured it out),

do not try werewolf kill townie gambit

. Why? Becuase at that point, the game is reversed and town must lynch werewolf.

Now here's the catch. You have three townreads. 1st is me, you're right--I'm town. 2nd is kmd, you're right--kmd is town. 3rd is someone you keep it for yourself which is ###.

Now here's the point. You are wrong. ### is not town.

If the kill list is {Realeo,kmd,###}, kill ###. The next step for werewolf to win after killing ### is to kill me, but unfortunately you can't reverse it (kill me first then ###) due to the consequence of werewolf kill townie gambit.

I'm doing this because the only way town to win is if werewolf has chance to win. Let us change this social deduction game into chess, ok?

(Note: Obviously both of us know who is ### and ???)

If you are town, simply ignore this.

[Realeo]

eliminating kmd as mafia...which would point towards a mafia alignment for Dunnstral

What? How is that possible?

[Realeo]

How is BTD not being mafia a fact?

Yeah. I don't think gut feeling warrants such a strong reaction.

[Realeo]

See, even Realeo knows you're scum RC. I happen to believe you to be specifically mafia. Which is the desired lynchee today for both town and WWs.

Ew, stop buddying me. You can't call out RC for buddying but buddy me.

[Realeo]

Flip! Flip! Flip! Flip! Flip! Flip!

[Realeo]

Because even a werewolf flip is not a game over for town and I'm confident that is not green.

[Realeo]

The entire playlist almost unanimously agrees that BTD is not town, it's just a matter of werewolf or mafia.

So it's either a car or a consolation prize, but it's not a zonk.

[Realeo]

But I did the math and I realized that there is no way town can without kingmaker.

If we lynch werewolf, town can either win by mafia vs town with werewolf as king maker.

If we lynch mafia, town can either win by werewolf vs town with mafia as king maker.

The only way town can absolutely win is if we give werewolf the chance a way to absolutely win without kingmaker and that involves werewolf killing a certain person which I way I have a talk with RC.

[Realeo]

LEt's do the math.

BTD flips red.

3/3/2. Werewolf no kill. At that point, it's obvious who is' scum partner, right? We lynch mafia, werewolf night kill town.

1/2/2

Town votes for werewolf. Werewolf votes for town. Mafia is the kingmaker.

[Realeo]

Even if RC is not werewolf, that's fine, but whoever the werewolf are knows my offer.

We can force 2 town 1 mafia 1 werewolf day phase.

Exactly the point. It's a werewolf vs town vs mafia, but if town are able to lynch the werewolf, mafia is doomed due to the context of the game, so it's werewolf vs town but at that point mafia can't kingmaker.

[Realeo]

Wait btd6 is hammered?

Good game everyone

Told you RC.

Although, shame on you Dunn. You just lost kingmaker.

[Realeo]

Please wait as I try to understand why Vedith turns from auto mafia to auto werewolf and suddenly he is the better lynch when Dunnstral is auto werewolf the entire game for RC.

[Realeo]

RC, what is exactly your priority here? Lynching werewolf or getting information? I agree Vedith is informative but I'm trying to figure out if town can take a non-werewolf lynch.

[Realeo]

Here's the thing. I'm totally convinced that neither Dunnstral or Vedith is mafia.

I pinned down Commknight as mafia (and so do you RC)

It's a little bit confusing how in D4, Commknight decided to vote Dunnstral over Vedith for no reason and now in D5 Commknight decided to vote Vedith over Dunnstral also with no heavy feeling.

So I felt that neither Dunnstral or Vedith is mafia with Commknight judged from voting pattern. There is also KMD's case about trihexa voting.

I agree that a werewolf lynch here is totally optimal play. I totally convinced that town is not Dunnstral/Vedith/Realeo so a minimum of 1 werewolf in Dunnstral/Vedith.

So it becomes to the question, "If I want a werewolf lynch, who should I lynch?" I obviously should vote the person I scumread the most.

I can't come to a conclusion where Vedith is scummier than Dunnstral. Coming to a conclusion where Vedith is werewolf, sure I can, but coming to a conclusion where Vedith is more werewolf than Dunnstral, just no.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Dunn

Obviously I'm open to persuasion and

I have outlined

above what is my concern and that concern if delivered can make me move my vote.

But we're lynching werewolf in a 2/3/2. Unlike D4 where I want to avoid confrontation at all cost, I can spend a dissenting voice. I can deadline lynch Vedith, but deadline is 13 days way.

For the time being, I'm rereading BTD's iso.

[Realeo]

Me checked BTD's iso and there are three players who are

never

analyzed by BTD: Flubber, Gamma, Dunn.

There you go, a case of why Dunn is mafia can persuade me to vote Vedith.

[Realeo]

UNVOTE:

KMD, spare me two cents and explain to me why Dunn is town when your case of town!Dunn is contingent on scum!Hiraku and Hiraku flips town.

[Realeo]

Quick questions, does the mafia benefits from lynching town or both anti-faction needs to lynch each other?

[Realeo]

Comm is Mafia with Dunn. Look at how he voted BTD, he had to bus and that shows.

But Vedith, in D4, Comm decided to push for Dunn. They can't be scum together.

[Realeo]

Active lurking through the whole game. Odds are you're scum....which flavor not a concern.

Fitz, have you read past games? A signifiant proportion of my townread @ KMD is based on D1 ~ D3. You suggesting "the whole game" suggests you have reread the entire game so I can use second opinion. Can you give a more detailed scumread for KMD, please?

[Realeo]

For town...you only need to determine one other player is town to give you an 80% chance of hitting scum. And if you're good and have both your remaining town id'd your odds of hitting scum go up to 100%.

So to anyone not voting......why not?

Yeah, sorry.

VOTE: Dunn

[Realeo]

@RC, I'll let you handle Realeo. He may be town, but his reads are shit.

First of all, I'm the first one to call BTD mafia. Yours are shite.

Second, assuming you're town--so I am going to give you the chance--I have found a way for me to townread you. Would you be all ears?

Comm: I'm all ears. Talk, Real

Ok, so you say you're happy with both Vedith and Dunnstral lynch.

What do I say, comn, that if you compromise with me and vote Dunstral, assuming you're town and everything rolls well, I'm gonna townread you?

Comm: How is it possible?

Simple, information lynch. Vedith flipping anti-town won't do any damage to my readlist. It just proofs that town is {RC,KMD} fmpov which (unfortunately) at this state of the game is not enough as we need to lynch specific alignment + loses the game if you are town.

But Dunnstral flipping anti-werewolf is a real killer.

If Dunnstral flips town, Vedith is auto werewolf and RC is auto town + I have to reconsider my werewolf read.

If Dunnstral is mafia, I am an idiot and I have to reconsider my entire readlist,

possibly considering the chance that you are town.

So, flipping Dunnstral is perhaps the final chance for me to townread you before possible lylo.

So, what do you say?

If you are town, help me, help you.

[Realeo]

I fucking don't understand why RC and me has to lynch a different person when both of us agrees that Dunnstral is a werewolf.

[Realeo]

2 mafia vs 3 town vs 1 werewolf is a more advantageous position for town compared to 1 mafia vs 3 town vs 2 werewolf as the latter invovles kingmaker.

Do you want to gamble everything on Comm giving the victory for town, Vedith?

[Realeo]

Wait no.

Continuing on 2 v 2 v 1,

if we lynch werewolf, we get a tie?

if we lynch mafia it goes to to 1 v 2 v 1. Werewolf has no incentive to kill town as in a 1 v 1 v 1, mafia is lynching werewolf for a tie so either no kill or mafia kill

If ww no kill, we go to 1 v 2 v 1. We have to lynch werewolf then mafia.

If ww kills mafia, we go to 2 v 1 lylo.

We avoid kingmaker.

[Realeo]

It's not auto town win. It's lynching game.

[Realeo]

Here's a quick pitch for Vedith why Dunn is ww:

If RC is werewolf, why is RC is avoiding lynching his ww read : Dunn?

Simple, Dunn is his partner in crime.

[Realeo]

RC is being truthful that Dunn is ww. Notice that RC in D4 is struggling naming Dunn's partner when I confront him why Dunn is werewolf. That's because the only partner that makes senses is RC.

[Realeo]

It's a tie for mafia vs town, but town should fight for total win right?

But three things:

1. I did numbers and yes, it turns out we

could

avoid kingmaker by lynching mafia. Sorry for inconveniece. Too absorbed on numberwang
2. For Vedith, {Flubber, BTD, Gamma} Ever notice this three never interacts with each other?
3. Assuming Dunn flips mafia, then I think werewolf is definitely kmd, RC--and this could be reasons why RC is reluctant from lynching Dunn--but I'm honestly drawing blanks on the 3rd mafia.

[Realeo]

Dunn, if you hammer Vedith, I swear to God I would kingmaker against you.

[Realeo]

Thank you!

[Realeo]

1v1v1 = mafia win. If one faction is gone 1v1 or 2v2 where town is alive, that scum faction wins. There is no tie.

Dafuq, I was reading the victory condition in the sample role pm.

Win Condition

You win when the Mafia makes up a majority of the living players, or when nothing can stop this from occurring.

I assumed mafia-town deadlock is a tie but werewolf-town deadlock is a werewolf win.

[Realeo]

I don't think mafia!Fitz makes senses. I remembered townreading Gamma and upon re-reading Fitz kinda reinforced it.

[Realeo]

Am I the only one with past game experiences playing with Vedith?

[Realeo]

I strongly disagree, however, with your assertion that Fitz doesn't make sense as mafia.

Do you actually read the whole game when you replaced?

[Realeo]

No shit I read the whole game when I replaced?

Is that a yes or a no.

[Realeo]

I did. I explained to you that if Vedith is scum, then why he accuses me AtE but no scumread me for it?

[Realeo]

There is also Firescreamer who decided to push Dave--which if you reread the whole game in full, you would notice that it bothered me--but suddenly decided to stop scumreading Dave seems natural.

[Realeo]

Let me put this, I genuinely townread Vedith (and his replacements) and I until now still do townread him.

However, I'm confident that Vedith is not mafia. I have explained why Vedith is not in the same faction with Dunnstral in the past.

Pedit:

Realeo your reads are terrible. I'm through with you: you can follow me or you can lose.

Then speak. Your entire case of why Vedith is scum is "He's just obvious scum like Hawk in my game" which is as unhelpful as "My town is self-evident."

I'm all ears.

[Realeo]

Then you deserve to lose.

[Realeo]

I kept asking you question. I showed participation to cross check your read. It's not my issue that you're not playing along.

In D4, I take the imitative to follow you.
In D5, you follow me

So it's the right time to has a two way discourse in D6.

[Realeo]

I listened to you.

I said "I want Dunn."

You said "No. We're going either Vedith or BTD."

I followed you.

I said "Dunnstral is mafia"

You said "Dunstral is werewolf with gamma."

I bought it. I took the blame eventhough I was inspired by your insight.

But it's a filthy lie to say I don't listen to you.

[Realeo]

Stop playing victim.

[Realeo]

Every single of my action, voting BTD, wolfreading Dunn, mafiareading Commknight, all of them are product from listening to you. We have 13 days in the clock in D4, I always love spending every single time of deadline clock, but when you disagree with Dunnstral, I compromised.

I wolfread you, but that doesn't prevent me from acknowledging your insight.

Like we get past today? what happens in lylo.

If you get to Comm/You/Vedith endgame, who are you going to hammer?

Comm for mafia and Vedith for werewolf. I don't even think Comm werewolf remotely makes senses.

If Vedith and Fitz are town, that leaves myself and KMD to be werewolves, and I'm not scum.

Then speak for yourself.

I gave you the opportunity to pitch to me why Vedith is scum. Talk

[Realeo]

RC, you actually care of winning more than I do, isn't it?

[Realeo]

RC, here's another way to do it.

If you don't want to explain why RC is mafia, then challenge my townread.

I defend him because I have townread.

If my townread crumbles, I have no reason to defend him, right?

This offer is valid for everyone, including you Commknight.

If RC is not opening up, I am opening up.

[Realeo]

UNVOTE:

Reaction felt mafiay enough that I don't really want to lynch it anymore

Are you suggesting that Vedith is commiting double bus?

[Realeo]

I mean, there's a reason why I said Vedith is either werewolf or town.

[Realeo]

the Dunn/Vedith associatives have been super strong since the start of the game.

Wait. How?

[Realeo]

I mean, you would notice that neither of Trihexa/Firescreamer/Umlaut interacted with Dunn. Only Vedith did.

[Realeo]

True.

So for you, it's either Dunn bus Gamma (and Gamma bus back) or Vedith bus Dunn.

[Realeo]

There is something that always bothers me.

Why take Hellfire missile out of the kill list (and replace me with Flubber and Realeo) but not kmd.

[Realeo]

No. That's not the question.

WHy Flubber?

[Realeo]

If neither of KMD or RC is werewolf, how do you explain nightkill of Dave and RC switching with you, Commknight?

[Realeo]

I'm testing the possibility of Kmd/Vedith. Because why werewolf decided to kill dave when they can kill kmd and dave can mislynch hellfire.

[Realeo]

The logical conclusion of that is probably "RC/KMD" is werewolf, but then they retracted RC which probably shouts "Mafia RC" but now BTD pushed RC.

The problem of that night kill is that both faction plays not optimally.

[Realeo]

Uh ok. The conclusion was RC is town but now you stopped my thought experiment so yeah.

[Realeo]

But I still need help testing Kmd/Vedith. If it doesn't fly, then I prolly go for kmd/fitz.

Let me pull quotes later.

[Realeo]

Since you reread RC, then you would prolly remember that I scumread Umlaut/Vedith.

Vote Vedith

no tnemmoc ot tnatropmi gnihton mhU
ko smees nogaw ehT
?yllausu taht ekil yalp eh seod ro ,yadretsey no rebbulF saw fW
.ekaf smees ,hcum oot seirrow oelaeR

^this was your slot, vedith. Trihexa was obvscum, but we (myself included) got distracted by theta being scummy town. Day 1 lynch was pretty bad, but we were missing if we'd done theta anyway.

N1 mafia gave a list of hellfire, dave, and delta. Delta died after being basically invisible Day 1 while people had mixed views on hellfire and dave.

Day 2 we lynched theta. Town.

N2 list was hellfire, dave, and myself. Same as N1 but with me added in. Dunn was the only one scumreading me if I'm not mistaken. Dave was killed. Town.

Now scum outnumber us. We're probably lynching you or hellfire. Dunn is also possible maybe.

The case on hellfire is basically that he was on mafia's list both nights and fits the profile if scum put themself on the lists.

The reason why I made him scumread him was Vedith scumread kmd specifically werewolf for simplistic reason.

I mean, if Vedih scumread kmd

in general

that makes senses.

But Vedith scumread kmd

specficially werewolf

for just that, that's weird.

Which is why Commknight's argument "Kmd can't be bussing vedith" doesn't fly because Kmd-Vedith bussing already happened since D4.

Which also explains why Vedith is happy to jump to both Hiraki and Dunnstal.

[Realeo]

Methink me happy pinning Comnknight as mafia.

[Realeo]

Ah, you're not engaging again

[Realeo]

I mean, it explains the inconsistency why Kmd scumread Vedith and his replacements

from D1 but (almost) never vote them

.

[Realeo]

With that post above in mind

So is anyone actually against kmd WW?

is this still in play? I assume you're going to offer kmd as counter wagon for RC.

[Realeo]

I've spent more time voting vedith's slot than any other in this game.

Sure. But Vedith has only entered the game like at page sixties so you only voted Vedith's slot for 1/4 th of the game when you have scumread him the entire game. You voted Trihexa at the beginning at the game but then poof.

That's a long time for a read to develop into a vote.
That's a long time for a read to not change.

Pretty sure we already talked about this previously.

If you're suspecting a me/vedith team, at least acknowledge it would have to be a game-long hard bus.

I will acknowledge that it's a game-long shade throwing. game-long hard bus belongs to Dunn/Gamma.

With that post above in mind

So is anyone actually against kmd WW?

is this still in play? I assume you're going to offer kmd as counter wagon for RC.

VOTE: kmd

Hmm. So you actually mean it.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Vedith

[Realeo]

No, I am not werewolf and I'm never found guilty for lynch troll.

[Realeo]

Since RC also never found guilty of lynch trolling, KMD has genuine reason, if Vedith is being realz, then we may see a scummy nomination here.

[Realeo]

Nice. Well executed.

[Realeo]

There is no way I would connect the dots between RC and Gamma. Werewolf thread, please.

[Realeo]

Oh one final thing.

THE APOLOGY.

*cough*

So I (publicly?) apologized to kmd for that mean words.

The reason I said that I thought sometimes political incorrectness is required to send a message because I actually mean it. Hiraki is compromising for KMD's and other inactiveness. You don't punish someone compromising their value for your inactiveness.

Is there any way that I can do the same way in a politically correct way? I doubt it, given the fact Hiraki's lynch still go through.

[Realeo]

Vedith, why didn't you claim?

He would lose then.

[Realeo]

But man, Vedith bussing both Dunnstral and BTD without hesitation? That's some balls.

[Realeo]

This is creepy.

hmm

my guess for the werewolf team is HellfireMissile and Gamma Emerald