Newbie 1821: The Newlywed Game [Game Over][

[Sunlit Diamond]

Hi.

I have about 25 pages to go before I can participate intelligently. Stand by.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I'm looking at Huntress, and it would take a decent amount of talking from her to convince me otherwise.

My reasoning behind this is based on RC's scum-sided meta and NSG's behavior throughout the game.

RC's meta is important because I think, from the little skimming I've been able to do, that he loses town games because he tries to apply scum tactics.

This is relevant because he fakeclaimed in D2, which is a thing "town should never do." The thing is, in this case town wins either way.

Either

A) NSG goes to lylo in which case she can claim, argue her case against Lioness, and win like that
or
B) NSG gets NKed, but RC is there to vote and argue for the breadcrumb trail she left to Lioness


I would be very interested to see Huntress' argument against this.

[Sunlit Diamond]

...Lioness wtf. Huntress.

[Sunlit Diamond]

To be clear, without the neon trail NSG laid for Huntress I'd be hard pressed not to scumread RC's fakeclaim. But....that breadcrumb is crazy loud.

[Sunlit Diamond]

fakeclaimed in D2

D3. Not D2. My fingers ain't my friends today.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Probably soon, but first I'll hear Huntress out.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Although to be fair she'll probably just redirect suspicion on me. Still would like to hear from her.

[Sunlit Diamond]

What breadcrumb are you talking about here? NSG stated her suspicion of me openly.

That would be the breadcrumb I'm talking about. EXCEPT.

In a game where one scum is already dead and the setup is known, there's no mechanical reason for NSG to hide her role and drag the game out for 2 extra day phases if she saw you visit Cheeky N1, or Keychain N2.

There's no way RC didn't know that. Assembler, care to explain why you let my overtly bad logic stand?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Whoops I dun got prodded.

The problem is, I need Assembler to respond before I can continue that line of thought.

Re: Nictis- Why is it that you scumread my slot for voting there, but not RC?

[Sunlit Diamond]

That didn't actually answer my question.

[Sunlit Diamond]

If anything, it actually supported it. You knew the logic behind my read was wrong, so why did you push me to vote?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Ah, I misunderstood your exchange and thought you were talking about the vote, not the behavior around it. I'm at a disadvantage- I have no idea why Plus Minus did what he did, but I can review and offer my analysis a little later this morning.

I am bothered by Assembler's relative quiet.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Could the three of us get some actual quick dialogue going on, even if it's just theoretical analysis of the preceding game? At this point it feels like it will be a rushed last minute lynch, and that's not great for a game as interesting as this one was.

Huntress...if you have questions about my thoughts on how the game has gone so far that might help you read

me

as a player, versus +/-, I would be happy to answer them.

My current thoughts are probably too simplistic for this stage of the game, but...I noticed that when I indicated interest in lynching you, Assembler was quick to jump to "agreement, let's end it" despite my bad logic, whereas when I flipped the tables and indicated suspicion in assembler, you continued to pursue my slot. I have my thoughts on this, but I'm curious what your take on it is?

[Sunlit Diamond]

I reviewed the interactions with Nictis' slot.

What I observed is that initially PlusMinus was in a very good place to float for a while if he were scum, with a good chance to hop off if things got toasty for Nictis. However..he didn't just vote and coast. He voted and kept applying pressure.

Post 253 - His initial vote
Post 310 - Asking RC for clarification on why he should shift his vote. Reiterated why he scumreads Nictis.
Post 313 - Not direct pressure, but redirecting attention to his "high priority" over the current topic of discussion
Post 477 - He directly engages Nictis again, asking for specific explanation. Note that Moisto is a viable wagon to jump on, at L-2. He argues against it instead.
Post 520 - Nictis went to L-2 in the post preceding.

Then this happened after Nictis went to L-1:

I'm still on the concept that town would not post the mod query in 227. Even if you ran with the argument that newtown would, or that they are influenced by ToS, or whatever, Nictis was told that this was a bad idea and scummy in nature. He proceeds to post 455 after this fact, with another query as to the function of power roles. I believe Cheeky already laid out a decent theory as to why in 642.

At this point in my reading, I don't believe he ever answered my 477. If you have missed that post Nictis, that's fine, but like you keep saying I have very few posts so it's hard to miss in my ISO, so 637's finish doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

PlusMinus is still pushing his scum read on Nictis and asking for specific information from him.

So...I could get scumreading my slot if he'd jumped in with his initial vote post and then wavered/backed off when the Nictis wagon got traction. However, his behavior indicates that it was a real read with real intent.

What other reasons are you scum reading me/Plus Minus versus RC/Assembler for?

[Sunlit Diamond]

*pokes the game*

[Sunlit Diamond]

bueno! I'll be here.

[Sunlit Diamond]

fyi - I am approaching a time of day where I will not be able to interact very coherently or at length, nor do a lot of extra reading up on the game, and we only have 4.5 hours left.

I think Assembler is scum.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Why did you change your mind to scumreading this slot, then?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Like...you're townreading for the push, but scumreading for the delay...? or...? I'm not following your logic.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Fair enough. Although I'd like to point out that RC's entire game here was pushing town around and trying gambits (some obvious, some only applicable if he's actually scum). I'm not sure Plus Minus being suspicious at that point is actually all that unbelievable.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I mean...

From my perspective, wanting to know the truth makes sense. If RC was lying then you (as in the players at that time) didn't have to enter lylo at all.


And neither do I (re: Assembler).

[Sunlit Diamond]

day.

so what does this leave us for lylo in the off chance darren flips town? rc is confirmed inno but likely dead and he says that he checked huntress?

anyone have a problem with me putting darren at l-1?

So this post is interesting.

A) RC was claiming a PR. Judging by the super confusing conversation between him and Darren, it sounds like he was soft-pushing for Cop.
B) NSG knew she was Tracker and therefore RC was lying.

At this point the only reason I can see for NSG not outing RC is if:

A) She tracked RC and RC did nothing, but an NK was performed

B) She did not track RC, but thought that having him in lylo would be useful.

In path B, the ways I could see this being useful, based on the post I quoted:

- If Darren flipped scum, game over.
- If Darren flipped town and RC died that night, then the Tracker is still alive in lylo to sort Plus Minus and Huntress.
- If Darren flipped town and RC didn't die, then NSG could Track Huntress and by POE know who scum is.

Except you know, she died.

[Sunlit Diamond]

(And just to clarify A - the Cop part doesn't actually matter much, except that it implies that he didn't know what the setup was, which would imply town.)

And yes! My reads are bouncing around. I have a lot of information to process, not a lot of time to do it, and not a lot of response to what I've posted. Also a play style that I struggle with (RC's) versus someone who doesn't post much at all (Huntress)

[Sunlit Diamond]

day.

so what does this leave us for lylo in the off chance darren flips town? rc is confirmed inno but likely dead and he says that he checked huntress?

anyone have a problem with me putting darren at l-1?

So this post is interesting.

A) RC was claiming a PR. Judging by the super confusing conversation between him and Darren, it sounds like he was soft-pushing for Cop.
B) NSG knew she was Tracker and therefore RC was lying.

At this point the only reason I can see for NSG not outing RC is if:

A) She tracked RC and RC did nothing, but an NK was performed

B) She did not track RC, but thought that having him in lylo would be useful.

In path B, the ways I could see this being useful, based on the post I quoted:

- If Darren flipped scum, game over.
- If Darren flipped town and RC died that night, then the Tracker is still alive in lylo to sort Plus Minus and Huntress.
- If Darren flipped town and RC didn't die, then NSG could Track Huntress and by POE know who scum is.

Except you know, she died.

Looking at this further-

Town!RC knows he's not PR. That means at least one of the other three are, and possibly two. Perhaps he claims PR in hopes of getting the NK and/or roleblock so the Tracker/Cop can go into lylo and blow the place up.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Flipping it around:

Scum!RC knows Darren will flip town.
He also knows he'll survive the night.
He has to choose between Huntress (scummy voting and posting habits), NSG (who has been going after Huntress hard core) and Plus Minus (who, as previously detailed, pushed for, and followed through with, lynching Nictis, and generally spent the thread trying to gamesolve).

In this scenario it makes very, very little sense for RC to kill NSG. She has given no hint to her role and she's actively combative with Huntress; why wouldn't he take that strife into lylo?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Scum!Plus Minus would have to make the same decision, only split between RC/NSG/Huntress. Again, it makes no sense for him to choose NSG in this scenario.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Do either of you have any actual complaints against me?
I'm actually starting to worry about Diamond right now. Townreads are being destroyed all over the place.

My main issues right now are that you aren't talking and you accepted bad logic, which implies either that you are scum hoping for a quick lynch, or you aren't putting any effort into your wincon as town.

If you can actually talk to me about the stuff I just posted, that would be awesome.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I would rather make an active choice and be wrong than let things sit to the end and lose by default. I'm going to vote in one hour. If you're town, tell me why. If you have last minute questions for me, make them.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Is that the only reason you're scum reading this slot?

Why are you so heavily town reading RC?

[Sunlit Diamond]

It also makes absolute sense for you to pull my slot into LyLo because RC lied and plus minus questioned it. Easy push to lynch.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Supported by your gray response to Plus Minus threatening to vote you. Why wouldn't that be a scum read for you?

[Sunlit Diamond]

VOTE: Huntress

Still around to talk, assuming Assembler shows up in time to keep this from defaulting.

[Sunlit Diamond]

If I got hoodwinked, I'll bake town cookies. Like actual, real cookies.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Huntress- why aren't you voting?

[Sunlit Diamond]

You could win by default by just sitting there for ten minutes. Maybe you're still trying to get a true win, not a default win, but like I said a bit ago- I'd rather lose by design than lose by default, and if Assembler's town those are my only options for the future.

VOTE: Assembler

[Sunlit Diamond]

Well.

I am comforted that my read was accurate.

Could kick myself for getting impatient and not waiting.

Assembler, why did you vanish??

[Sunlit Diamond]

I struggled hard. There was a lot to go through in RC's history, but really it came down to knowing I was town, realizing that in order for RC to be scum he'd have to be running like seven gambits at once, and Huntress's reasons for townreading me were shoddy.

[Sunlit Diamond]

But the disappearance made my brain hurt because we were so close to deadline. I started questioning myself, and wondering if he'd just decided to ignore the game and win that way. Bah.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Also: 53 fucking pages in 12 hours. THAT WAS A HELL OF A MARATHON.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Plus Minus: Please come back. You and I think similarly.
NSG: Can you explain why you were scumreading huntress the entire game, but didn't visit her?
Keychain: Should definitely play together soon! What queues do you like to play in?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Huntress: Your choices for lylo player were masterful. I had to bend my brain into pretzels before I found the patterns I needed to make a read because all the stuff that usually helps me (ISOs, VCA, associations) was profoundly unhelpful until I started examining RC's motivation and the thing clicked where I realized he was trying to put the PR into lylo. How did you know to NK NSG, or was that a lucky guess?

Now I stop spamming. I think.

[Sunlit Diamond]

To be honest Plus Minus and I think so similarly that I had a really hard time not aligning myself to his thought process exactly and inadvertently giving off newbscum signals. *snort*

I didn't even factor in that you believed RC because you knew he was town, NSG. herp-derp. There I go being all logical when there was a black and white practical explanation. Whoops.

[Sunlit Diamond]

yeah, it seemed weird to me that nobody seemed to pick up on that. maybe i'm just not used to gambits, but i think i definitely would have said something if i didn't know rc was town there and that he was trying to draw the nk away from me.

I am betting Huntress picked up on this even if I didn't.

[Sunlit Diamond]

It was incredibly frustrating, as someone who puts a lot into my games, even if I'm only in them for a few days.