Team Mafia 2018: Game 3 - Random GIFs Game Over

[Bins]

Oh wait I missed what Marquis said apparenltly I should be angry reacting CDB (entirely my words)

[Titus]

@Keychain what caused RC's read flip flop?

[Titus]

I'm trying to think of what Tituscum would do in the situation of her and her scumbuddy being the main wagons. Cuz Titus decided to go full vanity wagon and actively refused to join her own counterwagon. And under her own VCA, that's scummy as fuck.

I think wagon apathy was caused by scum not helping us lynch fitz, and the fact that half the game hard-townread me and half hard-townread Titus's slot. This is true regardless of Titus's actual alignment.

No. It's grounds for suspicion. It wasn't me or Fitz until I was offline and things snowballed.

[Keychain]

@Keychain what caused RC's read flip flop?

Which read? The one on you?

Mathdino

I was the first one to say that. I voted him in my first post over it.

I would actually not prefer RC arguments tbh. His scumflip very slightly decreases the chance that you're town by team composition. Him strategising your game for you has obvious implications. I'm otherwise okay hearing his reads, but I'm really not okay with him deciding what you do. Ruins your readability.

And lol at how hurt his feelings were that I called him arrogant

Gimme thoughts on T-Bone.

T-Bone is talking quite a lot of sense now and I'm appreciating the way he's poking at your gambit, but I did think he was pretty scummy towards the end of the day.
I love his 2164 a lot though in a way that probably isn't AI, but I do think 2177 is a great post in a towny way.

Too much ego in a game sucks but he's definitely not the only one contributing to that.

Honestly my read on Keychain is almost 80% meta-based. On one hand she prefers town and RC/Fire/Postie are all more likely to go scum... but on the other hand RC being this suddenly invested in the game is really weird. It's like he's been masking her playstyle.

She's hard to read in isolation IMO. RC playing so much really doesn't help. Who in this tournament has Keychain experience?

You're still relying on a meta read from a brief background check, huh. Why am I so difficult to read apart from RC's contributions?

I've explained why it's really not weird today RC is suddenly micromanaging me but I can't get over how ridiculous this line of thought is after you going on about following the whole tournament. I have asked him to back off a wee bit though, I'm not enjoying having zero space to play.

I have limited experience with players in this tournament, and I'm feeling like we've had this conversation before. Titus's team would be best able to read me - Transcend is the most reliable at reading me, Katyusha has some experience with me, jjh was a scumbuddy. From other teams maybe Creature, northsidegal, Dunnstral. Nearly all of these players gave a read on me D1. I've played with others in the tournament, including players in this game, but not much.
Actually I know she's very busy, but could I request a direct read on me from North? I want to know her opinion.

@Keychain: Gotta love RC's style of "everyone against me is scum". Does he think the scumteam is LLD/Elena/Math?

Or does he think that I'm defending Elena because I know she's town already?

And in that case, has he literally not read my defences of her? gerry townflip objectively makes Elena more likely town.
Literally the more RC is invested in this game the scummier your slot is. IDK what you're even doing. And his lack of a Dunker townread is bad in itself.

Rerunning this one now that I'm actually here.
I don't post a lot. It's not hard to read everything I say. From the bolded, it appears you're just skipping my posts. I'm reading Elena as scum based on this game. gerry's town flip is an

incredibly

weak defense to the point of being ludicrous. Look at what's in front of you.

chesskid

I think wagon apathy day 1 is explained by 2 of the major wagons being on scum.

Thoughts?

You say wagon apathy but I didn't really feel apathy around them tbh - but why would two scum wagons cause apathy? Because scum assume they're losing a member and don't put up as much of a fight?

Elena

keychain what made you think I like to be bussed? That's incorrect

RC thoughts, I will see if he has any evidence. This was a continuation of something he said when reading you and LLD as SvS during D1 was that both of you are very good at your interactions with scumpartners - he said something about you getting bussed in a fairly high percentage of your scum games and still winning them because of this. But you know, 80% of statistics are made up on the spot

VOTE: key
just incase

I'm so keen to hear your reasons but they didn't make it into any of the three posts it took for you to vote me! What are they?

Also

Also the fact that Raybells swapped into Inventions and not here despite explicitly wanting to play a normal (from sign-ups) heavily implies Keychain is actually just town. Willing to consider counter-arguments but I think is sound.

Yo Elena, why doesn't Raybells just swap into this game if he wants to swap into a scumgame?

It's already been stated why

I think I missed this - point me?

[Keychain]

Okay more thoughts RC wants inthread (sorry I know I like just said I'd asked him to stop getting me to post things for him and I did but they're good points). I've expanded on them to some extent.

I locked LLD out of the lynchpool because lynching LLD would be a hassle that would potentially shut the game down due to her AtE (I wanted an invest on her more than a lynch), and because town LLD was too much of an asset to risk losing. For most of LLD's presence, my team was confused as fuck on how to read her, and mostly gave up on trying. Once fitz replaced in, all those reasons went out the window. You should be able to see the context; once we needed wagon consolidation and the wagons were me, Titus, and fitz, I hated the Titus wagon and started pushing fitz.

This is not good. What if there is no invest or it gets used elsewhere? LLD was not the only dangerous player in the game.
Letting someone cruise because you're scared of AtE is questionable. A scumteam of you/Elena/LLD talking it up and scum theatreing also makes plenty of sense.

@Bins

, regarding Titus because you deserve more of an explanation than you're getting so far: she may be playing kind of off but if she and Fitz were two scum wagons together she would know how it looks, she's good at that, and she would have joined the Fitz wagon. RC really doesn't think she's scum here.


Other points not really directed at anyone:
>He considers the wagon stagnation due to scum pushing each other and theatreing to gather towncred, and thinks this further points to Elena/LLD scum.

>There is the possibility that if scum were pushing a counterwagon, it was Mathdino if he's town. However more likely scum were worried about overcommitting to a defense and losing two members, and instead decided to get Elena as much towncred as possible.

>He's also made a point on players scumreading me, but that can wait until those players commit themselves I think I want to hear from Elena first.


Also a note (to myself mostly but also to anyone interested) is that it might be worth checking Dino's claims today about his and his team's LLD/Fitz reads such as the one above against what he said inthread, and reviewing Elena's LLD read as well. My memory's not good enough to know whether everything is lining up.

[Radja]

Radja is no longer hard town but null/scum read. No strong SRs but TBone is pretty scummy.

Titus, can you explain your read on me? Transcend said I was town as fuck for no reason and there was no way he was going to let me get lynched ever.
I'm assuming he talked to his team about this? What changed??

Titus, I don't think you ever got to this. I still want an answer.

[Mathdino]

You're still relying on a meta read from a brief background check, huh. Why am I so difficult to read apart from RC's contributions?

I've explained why it's really not weird today RC is suddenly micromanaging me but I can't get over how ridiculous this line of thought is after you going on about following the whole tournament. I have asked him to back off a wee bit though, I'm not enjoying having zero space to play.

Yeah. I can't get over the idea that any scum on your team would be heavily coached by RC from the get-go. I fall somewhat in the "accepts that he can't read RC and will policy lynch if he survives way too long" crowd.
I mean, your play has otherwise seemed pretty townish. NSG warned me about your scumgame earlier on though.
I don't follow what RC means about me following the whole tournament implying you're town. Is there some way you can rephrase that? From what Zach said, Zach is the most likely to take a town PM, while RC is the most likely to take a scum PM. That leaves 3 PMs unaccounted for, which very well could've gone to you.

I have limited experience with players in this tournament, and I'm feeling like we've had this conversation before. Titus's team would be best able to read me - Transcend is the most reliable at reading me, Katyusha has some experience with me, jjh was a scumbuddy. From other teams maybe Creature, northsidegal, Dunnstral. Nearly all of these players gave a read on me D1. I've played with others in the tournament, including players in this game, but not much.
Actually I know she's very busy, but could I request a direct read on me from North? I want to know her opinion.

Lacking the ability to directly read you, I can definitely defer to players with direct experience. And if all those players end up with a townread on you, I'd have little reason not to trust you.

Rerunning this one now that I'm actually here.
I don't post a lot. It's not hard to read everything I say. From the bolded, it appears you're just skipping my posts. I'm reading Elena as scum based on this game. gerry's town flip is an incredibly weak defense to the point of being ludicrous. Look at what's in front of you.

Don't give me that. I'm not skipping. I understood you had a scumread on Elena. I just wanted to be clear that RC is suggesting that I'm suddenly soft-defending Elena because you guys think the scumteam is specifically me/LLD/Elena, and not some kind of "oh no Math is soft-defending Elena for towncred after she's mislynched".

On the other hand, if you do flip Elena-scum, I'm more than happy to take a step back and be the game's sacrificial lamb to get rid of associations. 1v8 is nearly impossible to win.

[chesskid3]

You say wagon apathy but I didn't really feel apathy around them tbh - but why would two scum wagons cause apathy? Because scum assume they're losing a member and don't put up as much of a fight?

How do you wagon shop when all your choices are bad? I would expect in this scenario the scumfucks would avoid xvoting, the third would steer clear, and rely on each to fight their own lynches successfully.

[Mathdino]

This is not good. What if there is no invest or it gets used elsewhere? LLD was not the only dangerous player in the game.
Letting someone cruise because you're scared of AtE is questionable. A scumteam of you/Elena/LLD talking it up and scum theatreing also makes plenty of sense.

1. Never played a normal before. Figured it'd be pretty standard for there to be some kind of investigative. But we seemed to agree in the first half of the day to leave LLD alone and let the invests get to her.

2. I agree that it would've been questionable had LLD been town all along. But why would I be afraid of bussing scum-LLD when I could just coordinate that with her anyway?

I want to read you as town, but I'm having trouble believing RC's push on me is sincere given that he's seen my scumgame and how awkward it is firsthand. I hate to say I don't hardbus, because I definitely did powerbus Not_Mafia once
but like
it's not_mafia
so

I don't see how that day makes more sense with a perspective "Math, Elena, and LLD decided to put on a show and then bus the fuck out of LLD's slot while Elena hardpushed Math". fitz was not legitimately in danger. Scum-dino could easily have spun an argument to get Titus lynched instead (with an agreement to just lynch LLD's slot D2). And RC's best argument is that Elena and I both bussed fitz for towncred?

Unfortunately, RC insincerely pushing me as town to see what I'd do is probably par for the course. So whatever tbh.

P.S. Regarding the "Math is afraid of pushing unpushable players", recall that I had a similar strategy with Bins. I also take that strategy with Almost50 in most D1s I play with him. I really hate D1s that end with townflips on typically strong players who decide to fuck over town cohesion on their way out.

[Bulbazak]

gerryoat openly claims that he wanted a scum PM. This seems too early in the tournament to try to protect Elena by saying that. I'm inclined to believe it. Townreading Elena.

First, this is WIFOM. Second, from a team captain perspective, this is the exact reason why I

wouldn't

give Gerry a scum PM.

Thor has an early townread on momo (which flipped when momo scummed up). While this slightly implicates Bulbazak, I'm pretty confident Bulba gets NK'd anyway this game, so whatever.

I'm not following on this.

P-edit: I'm not really feeling T-Bone scum.

Talk to me here because TBone and Bins are pretty much the only ppl I want to wagon.

I had something more for T-Bone, but I can't remember what it is. Mostly it's that I kinda agree with his mindset. Sure, he's a weaker townread, but if I try to look at the game from a broad perspective, I just have a hard time seeing him as scum. Also, Bins is one of my strongest townreads. She's not playing at all like she did in 17 Kilos. And while, yes, supposedly she'd be trying to play to her best in this competition, I still don't think we'd see a scum game at this level from her. So she's town.

Bulba, if the scumteam thought LLD's slot was so expendable, I don't think they'd be trying out 3 different wagons (counting A50 which ironically implies Titus lol).

I try to look at things from what the most optimal scum play would be in this situation. And in this situation, I think scum would dump LLD within the first couple of game days, given that the "LLD is good as scum and would take scum" stigma would never go away. So from that point of view, that's what I'd expect the scum team to do, and that's how I'm approaching looking for scum on the VC. I always try to assume that the scum team is at least competent, and while that is not always the case (see: 17 Kilos), I still think that is more likely to be true in Team Mafia.

Math if you're going to preach the "who picks scum" works
Elena is 100% scum now that Gerry is town imo

The exact opposite is true.

If we rank that team's scum players as something like
gerryoat > Elena > the rest

Then gerry's townflip makes it likely that entire team actually got 5 town PMs. Because if they got a scum PM, wouldn't they have given it to gerry?

You're falling for gambler's fallacy. Shea, Keely, and Reck are gonna throw a fit

But you're essentially guilty of the same thing. You see Gerry flip town in another game and automatically dismiss the potential for his team mate, who is also good as scum, to have picked scum in this game. You're ignoring that there are multiple factors in play that go into picks than just who is the best as a certain alignment.

My aim to be up to date and involved today. We'll see how that goes with training, reading, and deep diving in the mix.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.01

T-Bone (1)

Mathdino ,

Keychain (1)

Elena Fisher ,

chesskid3 (1)

Titus ,

Mathdino (2)

Dunkerdoodles , T-Bone ,

Elena Fisher (3)

Keychain , Bins , Bulbazak ,

Not Voting (5)

Aeronaut , ChannelDelibird , chesskid3 , Radja , UC Voyager ,

Day two deadline is Tuesday February 20, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-02-20 11:00:00).

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

[/size]

[Keychain]

Yeah. I can't get over the idea that any scum on your team would be heavily coached by RC from the get-go. I fall somewhat in the "accepts that he can't read RC and will policy lynch if he survives way too long" crowd.
I mean, your play has otherwise seemed pretty townish. NSG warned me about your scumgame earlier on though.
I don't follow what RC means about me following the whole tournament implying you're town. Is there some way you can rephrase that? From what Zach said, Zach is the most likely to take a town PM, while RC is the most likely to take a scum PM. That leaves 3 PMs unaccounted for, which very well could've gone to you.

I'm sure you've had to deal with unfamiliar players before. You don't need to read him. You need to read me.

I can rephrase and probably should, I think I wasn't as clear as I'd prefer. RC didn't say following the whole tournament implies I'm town.

I

said it means that using RC's contribution to scumread me is rubbish. He got lynched so of course his contribution is going to increase. It was also an argument used against Zach when he used RC's input. Those are both things you would have realised, I'd think.

[Mathdino]

@Bulba: I'm willing to concede on that Elena point then given the volume of players thinking she's more likely to go scum than gerryoat.
Re: Thor townreading momo, the idea is that if Thor knew A50 was town in this game, it would make it more likely the entire rest of A50's team was also town. Given how little Thor was able to follow his own game though, that argument doesn't really work super well on him.

@Keychain: Tbh every time Zach brought RC in I started scumreading him harder. I remember scumreading mainly Zach and sheep by the end of D1.
I get that it was misused against town. That doesn't change the fact, that the more RC plays a slot, the scummier it seems. Your hallmark is apparently being more anxious as scum than as town. But that likely goes away with RC's coaching.

I usually read unfamiliar players by associations after getting my first flip. And to that end, I haven't actually run an associative on you and LLD, so I'll go do that.

[chesskid3]

oh I'm not using this

VOTE: T-Bone

[chesskid3]

*crickets*

[Bins]

Sorry. Midterm week.

[chesskid3]

this game needs some flash wagons or shit lets get some activity

[Mathdino]

"shush so others can talk" they said
*crickets*
"..." they said

Request prod on UC Voyager, who was within prod range when the day ended and hasn't posted here in a week.

like wtf do you guys expect to happen here, activity is just as much an issue as ever
it looks like i'm talking so much because half of people's ISOs is getting into debates and 1v1s with me

[Mathdino]

@Mod: I meant Aeronaut, but really they should both be prodded/replaced at this rate.

[chesskid3]

Yeah but they were supposed to come back after u shushed and they sidnt

[Mathdino]

do you have reads yet chesskid

interested in talking about Elena, Titus, and Keychain (I assume you agree with me on T-Bone)

[chesskid3]

Keychain and Elena are town

Not sure abt Titus tbh

T-Bone is a fat vote yes

[chesskid3]

I still maintain that Keychain was a good vote earlier in the game though

[Mathdino]

can you read eddie cane and transcend?
i think most reads on that slot besides Bins's are based in some way on either a strong read on one of the 2 predecessors, or some wonky VCA

[Titus]

Please be patient. I have not posted or relayed my team reads due to a medical thing that came up. Am trying though. Will relay their thoughts later today I hope. Eddie did very detailed reads list and he's rightfully upset for me not posting it.