Big Four Mafia! Game Over!

[Titus]

In a Drew scum world the matchup looks like

Titus
Alch
Creature
Yurkin
BS

One town in left overs

Gobble -lean town

Yoda
Chennisden
JJH

[Titus]

You also predicted that scum would kill Egix over me and that Alch would be alive and useful. This is a lot of coincidences.

No, I was banking on BS protecting you

Alch wasn't going to be nightkilled anyway

Why?

[Titus]

Yurkin I would say town, BS and Chenn I lean town on, gun to my head Chenn is more likely to be town then BS.

Yoda is third scum in my eyes(with Alch and creature). I could see jjh as the last scum.....but is townier than Yoda that's for sure.

BS Yurkin are town bc vanillaizer claims. Chenn would be against Creature, thus more likely to be town in a scum Creature world.

Gobble would be scum aligned due to his incredibly inconsistent positions on the guilty. Alch is scum due to the coincidences above.

An argument exists for scum Chenn going for a scum mislynch because Creature had to act last night.

In that case, the town pool is

Titus
Drew
BS
Yurkin
JJH (lean)
Chenn or Creature

Against

Yoda (lean)
Alch
Chenn or Creature
Gobble

[Titus]

Was Yurkin proven to be a double voter before being vanilllized?

Also, I am pretty sure Chennisden is confirmed town because of TSE.

yurkin was conf doublevoter by VC and vanilized by VC

I'm having a hard time choosing from Alch, Drew, Creature, and Blatant.

Between Alch and Drew, I'm sure one of them is lying. Though I tend to believe investigatives.

I still don't know if I fully believe Blatant. Again, a prime scum kill N1 since he claimed Doc and nothing happened to him. The last time I played with someone who I thought was a prime scum target at night that didn't get killed that night turned out to be scum, so that's what keeps Blatant on my list. I know that this is a different game and all but it still sits on the back of my mind.

I just didn't like the brashness of Creatures claim push. Seems a perfect way to get targets on the most powerful remaining PRs.

But I just don't know who is the safest choice.

These two posts don't seem to be of the same mindset. It's like he forgot BS was the n2 vanilla target.

[Titus]

I am willing to lynch Alch, Yoda or Gobble atm.

[Titus]

Creature's role as town makes sense if Alch is a scum traffic analyst.

[Titus]

I think I might actually want to lynch Drew now, lol. I’m sorry Titus. I am feeling insecure right now and the fact that we have no good information to go off is annoying.

But Drew’s crap crumbs reminds me of the Metalocalypse game where he was cult. Do you remember that game?

Bulletproof doesn't crumb.

I get it. You're scum sooo

[Titus]

Holy cluck this is scum.

VOTE: Alchemist21

This is not a reaction test. I think you are scum for your interactions with Pisskop and Titus. Also the fact that you have not been vanillized is suspicious.

I think that actually makes Yurkin more likely scum in my mind.

Alchemist I think is scum for his bad reactions to Pisskop result. As PT cop, when you get a guilty, very specific things return false positives and he did not look for those at all. Not to mention revealing he had a result so quickly in the day. Seems very short sighted to go as hard on the PT result as he did.
Chennisden I think is town because I townread TSE. The claim there was unprovoked and seems very townie.
BS I think is town. He was vanillalized after revealing his power and has generally been trying to scumhunt.
Drew I think is town because he was also vanillalized and is trying to scumhunt. Plus he gave a lot of reads.

Did BS, Drew, or JJH ever flavor claim by the way?

jjh927
yurkin
Creature
YodaVader
Alchemist21

====

I think the 4 scum are in these 5 names.

Or he is the person in Titus’s hood that has the guilty.

Ding Ding Ding.

I'm still withholding who it's on yet.

Yeah I am 100% not lynching that person.

I am uncertain now if the guilty is on someone I’m already independently PoE scumreading. It would make it more likely that Alchemist is telling the truth.

So you'd judge Alchemist based on your PoE and no TV the reactions of people to the guilty?

My PoE is based on a combination of play and mechanical observations. Alchemist is in that group largely for his Day 2 play.

And yes I would because I do not know who the guilty is on so I cannot reliably judge their actions based on information I do not know.

Did he say why he claimed PT cop if he is a traffic analyst

Because I didn’t really think about the difference between the 2 roles at first and it’s easier to type out PT Cop.

*suspicion intensifies*

VOTE: Creature

Alchemist and Drew, what are your flavors?

VOTE: Doctor Drew

UNVOTE:

This is hard I town read both of them.

This transition doesn't feel town.

[Titus]

That has a usual descriptor Drew.

[Titus]

I get amazed at this town every day

Gove me your solve please.

[Titus]

Drew's role, although maldescribed, has been consistent with his play. The problem is he is eerily similar to Lavender.

Alchemist did not play his role like he described. He immediately claimed a guilty. I told him about Gamma's hood. He thought why did I check Drew. Then he claimed traffic analyst.

The neighborizers balance with Alch being scum or town as they are manufactured guilties. Second, if Alch is a scum traffic analyst, his role works well to determine masons and hidden networks. But if they kill a mason, they can't detect the other one.

[Titus]

Also anyone can say they’re never getting lynched and mean a wide number of things. That’s something that can very easily be retroactively claimed to be a crumb.

But claiming it as BP and expecting the game to be like “oh yes BP means you’re unlynchable” doesn’t seem to be a scum mindset.

Some players love to gloat as scum.

[Titus]

Why did you withhold the guilty publicly?
What is your read on Creature?

To try and maximize info. I asked Titus about it and she said to withhold it.

And I think Creature is Town for putting us in the hood together.

I vouch for withholding the guilty and his PoE.

I think Alch is scum, but I won't lie to lynch him.

[Titus]

Drew being town also raises Yurkin scum equity.

No. If Drew is town, Yurkin is almost certainly conftown.

[Titus]

Scum are confirmed having a vanillaizer and Yurkin was the first vanillaized.

[Titus]

I have a zero percent chance of voting Yurkin or BS.

Titus
Yurkin
BS

Creature or Chenn
Alch or Drew
Jjh or Yoda or Gobble

That's the setup and town names.

I'm ok with an Alch Yoda or Gobble lynch today.

[Titus]

Scum are confirmed having a vanillaizer and Yurkin was the first vanillaized.

I’m a Tinfoil Turkey so I refuse to believe scum wasted their vanillalizer on a known double voter.

Here's the thing...it was known. The investigators weren't know yet.

That's the truth. If you keep pushing this, you'll be lynched. That's reality.

[Titus]

It's also kinda possible scum stupidly claimed analyst instead of conveniently backing off so, yeah

+1. I'm not opposed to Creature scum but I'm not confident enough to lynch him today.

If Alch flips scum and Creature is not on the wagon, you'll have my spirit vote.

[Titus]

Is anyone willing to telling me really quick what happened in the last 20 pages?

Drew vanillaized.
Creature neighbors me and Alch.
Alch changed PT Cop to traffic analyst (detects PTs in use only) and claims guilty on Drew.
Chenn hard tunnels Creaure.

Likely groupings emerged from that series of events.

[Titus]

Forgot Drew is Deathproof, not just BP but play is consistent.

[Titus]

I haven't seen that cop flip.
I am really FoSing Alchemist now.

Crimson was the cop and informed about vanillaizer.

[Titus]

---alive---
jjh927 - hider
[Doctor Drew] - bulletproof
Chennisden - tracker
[yurkin] - doublevoter
Eve - flavour cop
[Blatant Scum] - doctor
Creature - neighborizer
YodaVader - BG minus
Alchemist21 - PT cop
Titus - mason
---dead---
tree stump
neighborizer
cop
mason
supersaint
miller
innocent child +

Blantant can you pair up flavor of the dead with their instruments?

[Titus]

Such as: WHY would Alch basically doom his slot and conf Drew's slot

Because a team of shallowwolves that might fall apart is trying to propel a deepwolf to endgame.

I think the simpler explanation is they assumed I wouldn't reset and a dumb town would follow me.

[Titus]

Can you both vote Alch?

[Titus]

Alch changed PT Cop to traffic analyst (detects PTs in use only) and claims guilty on Drew.

Wait

How tf that translates to a guilty?

Gamma's PT thing is permanent

Gamma was removed when he died supposedly.

[Titus]

I no longer have access to Gamma's hood.

This is consistent as the mason PT was locked on Pisskop's death.

[Titus]

My problem with Alchemist's claim is our early talk

Alch: I have a guilty on Drew.
Me: Wasn't Drew neighborized?
Alch: Oh yeah I forgot. *asks mod if vanillaized people retain PTs*
Mod: They do.
Alch: Would a traffic analyst get a guilty.
Mod: Yup.
Alch: Dumb me. I'm a traffic analyst which is real similar but I done goofed.

(Tone might be different. I paraphrased.)

[Titus]

My current theory is that mafia is aware of mason existence, they were given PT cop and town were given neighbordizers to weaken it.

That is my theory but for the scum knew about the masons part. Neighborizers would weaken the PT Cop/Traffic Analyst.

However, Creature could still be scum as the neighborizer would allow scum to make their own guilties too.

I'm not 100% sure on the theory but I favor it. I know I'm never lynching you or yurkin.

I am pretty sure Chennisden and Creature are on different sides.

Alch Creature makes sense as a scumteam because Creature's play. Creature repeatedly insisted scum in the investigated but mostly has whiteknighted Alch.

Gobble's play today on the guilty has been incoherent so I lean scum, but I don't want to lynch there anymore upon reflection. Gobble said he'd never believe the guilty based on his PoE but immediately voted Drew after the guilty. All the reads based conversations have been thrown out. Blow in his ear, his mind changes. He's also tried to put Yurkin back in the PoE.

Yoda's straight up been useless. So I'm ok with a lynch here.

If Alch is both town, then scum deliberately withheld the vanillaizer to force Drew to look town.

[Titus]

The more this game continues the more I realize how this role is so wasted on me.
But this is very interesting, I wonder what will happen~

JJ here is the invisible me
Drew, that long read list was funny

Now I uh, keep being unhelpful

Lavender, you can help by tone reading JJH, Creature and Chennisden for me.

[Titus]

Lol, and that terrible joke makes you 200% scum.

Also, in what world would a claimed town PT cop, the most dangerous PR to scum that would be left in the game, be left alive or not vanilla-ized.

Someone please explain to me like I am five years old how scum would allow that to happen.

Well Yurkin and BS are locktown. Most likely all the vanillaizer targets are.

If scum felt they could win today, then "vanillaizing" you makes sense. You would appear to be town.

[Titus]

If my analysis is correct, one of JJH, Yoda, and Gobble can be town.

If Drew is scum, Creature or Chennisden likely is. Alch goes to locktown. We'd still have 2 scum in JJH/Yoda/Gobble.

[Titus]

I meant more leaving the PT cop to just roam free all game, even though town PT cop would be their biggest threat.

Right because they'd run into too many clears problem.

That is unless they had neighborizers and deliberately didn't claim.

Can you give me your thoughts on JJH, Yoda, and Gobble? 2 of them should be scum no matter your alignment.

[Titus]

I meant more leaving the PT cop to just roam free all game, even though town PT cop would be their biggest threat.

In Alchemist's defense, scum vanillaized the known role n1, the doctor n2, and went for the win n3 in a scum!Drew world.

I just don't buy scum!Drew letting me live here. He'd be better off with the same night actions and Egix dead.

[Titus]

Yoda is scum in my eyes, I feel like Turkey is town and is just overly confused by the game so far. By POE I would say jjh is likely scum, but not as confident as I feel about Yoda.

I'm not 100% sure on Turkey. My gut says he's scum but his play might be too inconsistent to be a wolf. (That's different than too bad to be a wolf.) It's why I am reaching out.

I wish Yurkin was here. Without him, it will be immensely hard to get a lynch.

I'm like 75/25 on Chennisden town, Creature scum. 5% both town or both scum. 20% Creature town/Chenn scum. The odds make me not want to lynch Creature today.

Are you at the same place with the PoE pool?

[Titus]

Titus, I know you don't want to hear this, but it must be said.

I did my patented Activity Flow analysis and the biggest suspect it has identified is Yurkin. He is criminally lurking in this game. I will post the graphs of every player other than myself or Titus in a few minutes.

Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm open to it. Please do post.

Plus, if you're wrong, I hope you'd be open to it.

You have a mighty big common sense hurdle to overcome but go for it.

[Titus]

Gobble, what would your analysis say on Lavender?

[Titus]

Gobble, what would your analysis say on Lavender?

I don’t know. Probably that Lavendar is a lurker. I didn’t do the analysis on people whose alignment is confirmed (dead, or through roles).

Well I expect town apathy due to the mislynches. Also, zero post days are possible scheduling. To get the most of this, you'd need my most hated tool...meta.

[Titus]

I think at this stage focusing too much on activity rather than motivations is distracting

Do you think Yurkin and BS are conftown?

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

I'd buy this if the n2 kill wasn't pisskop.

[Titus]

What does the Pisskop kill have to do with scum potentially vanillaizing their own PR?

I doubt scum would refuse to vanillaize anyone.

[Titus]

Coloring yourself green on VCA is dishonest

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

Not n2 with this many investigatives.

For BS, he could have so many lies as outs if anyone died.

[Titus]

because scum have incentive to vanillaize a doctor if they have said doctor (esp if N1 there's no vig shot).

Do you think scum would actually vanillaize their own Doc instead of just lying and saying he was vanillaized?

Same difference

Not n2 with this many investigatives.

For BS, he could have so many lies as outs if anyone died.

Why would they vanillaize their nightkill tho

It would give them an out for later.

But it wouldn't happen in this case.

[Titus]

Activity Flow Analysis

I do this analysis from time to time to help me understand the game state better. It is a simple graphical representation of an individual player's posting habit. I manually count how many days there are in a game (make exceptions for when the thread is locked for night/mod issues) and then I tally how many posts an individual player has made on any given day. I then turn this data into a line chart to get a better idea of their overall posting habits. This allows me to see the general "trend" of an individual player's posting frequency (is their frequency trending upward, or downward). It also allows me to see if there are any peculiar posting habits. Is a player popping in every few days and posting a lot (marked by many peaks and valleys), or are they more consistently a low poster (marked by plateaus or lower peaks).

Why do I do this? I am under the strong belief that players more often than not post less as scum and generally try to lurk. There are a number of reasons that a scum would want to lurk Principally, less posting means less opportunity to have your thoughts/play scrutinized and thus lowers the likelihood that you will be discovered. Additionally, I also think that the majority of players do not like playing as scum and lurk by default. Before anyone asks, yes, I have done this as scum. Before anyone asks, yes, the hypothesis held and my own activity flow showed me as scum.

I have saved all of the relevant information into an Excel file. But without further ado, I present The Big Four Activity Flow.

Spoiler: Big 4 Activity Flow

Yurkin


JJH


Yodavader


Doctor Drew


Alchemist


Blatant Scum


Creature


Chennisden

Analysis:
Three people have clearly positive trend lines (denoted by the dashed horizontal line across the chart): Blatant Scum, Chennisden, Doctor Drew. Alchemist does have a positive trend line, but it is a very weak positive. The rest of the game has negative trend lines (Creature, JJH, Yodavader, Yurkin).

Positive trend lines indicate that an individual has increased their activity over the course of the game. Negative trend lines indicate that an individual has decreased their activity over the course of the game. In my experience, scum tend to have negative trend lines. They get in, show their face, get a couple of town reads, and then coast on that.

Both Creature and Alchemist get a large percentage of their total post count on a single day. Creature is the worst offender. On December 3, Creature posted 110 times. That accounts for 38% (110/289) of his total post count. That was Creature's second day in the game. He has not approached that level of activity since December 3. He did have a little burst of activity on December 6 and 7 posting 37 and 46 times respectively. Since that time, a time span of two weeks, Creature has posted only 69 times, accounting for 23.8% of his total posts. He also did not post

at all

for 5 days. That type of behavior is highly suspicious and indicative of a scum member coasting on getting town read quickly upon arrival in the game.

On November 23, Alchemist posted 47 times. This accounts for 23.5% of his total post count. That means one fourth of his total posts came on one day. To remind everyone what happened on November 23, that was the day the game opened for Day 2. TrueSoulEnergy revealed Alchemist visited Pisskop which then forced Alchemist to claim his role. Alchemist's Activity Flow is interesting because that single day widely out paces all of his other days. He frequently has 0-3 posts a day which also indicates scum coasting.

Yurkin has two massive spikes in activity that dwarf the rest of his posting. On October 31, Yurkin posted 39 times accounting for 25.1% (39/155) of his total posts. On November 25, Yurkin posted 29 times, accounting for 18.7% (29/155) of his total posts. Together, those two days account for nearly half of his total posts in this game. For context, this game has been going on for almost 2 months. Since November 25, Yurkin has the most days of 0 posts out of anyone player in the game with

14

. If you count the 0 post days before November 25, Yurkin has a staggering

23 days

where he

did not post at all

. That to me screams lurker.

Due to these trends, my top suspects are Yurkin, JJH, and Creature. The activity flow of Blatant Scum, Chennisden, and Doctor Drew make me less inclined to follow a wagon onto any of those players.

+1

I like the graph and as of right now, I don't think my activity level will ever change but I do hope you take into consideration that there is a lot of shitposting that happens in games. I do see where you are going with this though and I applaud your work in taking the time to do it.

As for me, it's really my lack of being able to connect dots like everyone else and my fear of sounding scummy that prevents me from saying more.

It's the lack of talking that makes you sound scummy. I can't track your thoughts.

[Titus]

I keep hearing that too much emotion comes off scummy, so I try not to get rash one way or the other.

From who?

[Titus]

@Gobble, the last slots will be the hardest to clear.

[Titus]

I do get that

I just doubt it's mylo due to how ppl have been playing

It is almost certainly mylo. It's just the teams are mostly clear. Scum can't move on Drew bc I don't endorse it.

Alch can't be quick hammered because he's scum.

You could argue vice versa but a townie townreads Alch and the scum are spaced apart.

[Titus]

JJH, Alch is just scum. The names are the conftown and everyone who has been vanillaized.

[Titus]

I am pretty sure Yurkin is demotivated town. He isn't sure if the Alch lynch will hit scum but he just wants it over with.

I need all town on the Alch lynch, so I am not complaining.

I know one of you, yoda, and gobble is town.

The other is Chennis or Creature.

Alch is at L minus 2.

[Titus]

Can you talk me through it

Sure. One second. I'll recuse Alch.

[Titus]

Today, the PT cop allegedly was not vanillaized or killed. That could create more conftown. Drew was vanillaized instead.

I was killed over Egix, despite largely having the same reads.

Both Alch and Creature predicted me living over Egix.

Alch opens the day claiming a guilty on Drew in our PT..

I said Drew was hooded before.

Alch asks mod questions in our PT.

He changes his claim to a Traffic Analyst after the mod answers the questions.

I sit on the guilty to get the landscape for later days.

[Titus]

I also don't think it's unlikely that scum has failed quickhammering at least once

So the "yurkin quickhammer" idea is possible

Alch has never been closer than L minus 2.

[Titus]

I am pretty sure I was left alive to be the dumb town.

[Titus]

I am concerned that Drew does not seem to really care that from his perspective if he was town, he would have a caught mafia 100%. That would invigorate me to find their buddies. He does not seem to be doing that.

One of my concerns is the creature vote he 'forgot' about
Not sure of much of the context but that looks like a side-play

But then Alch updating his claim is weird too

I don't feel Gobble is genuine here. I've worked with Drew most of the day.

[Titus]

The fact that the guilty hasn’t been discussed more is also interesting..

We've been discussing it for like 20 pages

[Titus]

Ok, but it's mylo, all it takes is two town voting, so

That's why Alch scum leaves me alive

[Titus]

This might be a bit tinfoil, but the vanillaiser might have a limitation of some sort. Natural thing to do if it failed would be to have scum claim vanillaised.

Further tinfoil says it's flavour related

Why would the vanillaizer be limited with this much power?

The closest tinfoil is Drew faked the vanillaizer on himself to get the last mislynch...but he couldn't predict the 1 v 1 then because Alch would be town then

[Titus]

Ok, but it's mylo, all it takes is two town voting, so

That's why Alch scum leaves me alive

Why do you believe Egix would not have voted Drew as well, considering his last post is literally "we should kill Drew tmrw"

Yeah it was. But Egix is slower to post, less emotional and Alch has less game experience with Egix.

I don't believe town Alch checks Pisskop n2 and botches his guilty claim like this in mylo.

[Titus]

Today, the PT cop allegedly was not vanillaized or killed. That could create more conftown. Drew was vanillaized instead.

I was killed over Egix, despite largely having the same reads.

Both Alch and Creature predicted me living over Egix.

Alch opens the day claiming a guilty on Drew in our PT..

I said Drew was hooded before.

Alch asks mod questions in our PT.

He changes his claim to a Traffic Analyst after the mod answers the questions.

I sit on the guilty to get the landscape for later days.

Where did Alch predict you living over Egix?

I think this ultimately comes down to the guilty being really dodgy, which I think it is but I can only know the scale of it second hand

By the nature of the night actions, plus Alchemist's total lack of paranoia on Creature and vice versa.

[Titus]

Agh I wish you didn't do the guilty in the hood

Why?

Alch doesn't dispute the retelling I give and hiding it allowed me to establish the factions in the game.

[Titus]

immunity to kill by any form including lynch is deathproof

He played consistently with it though. You didn't.

[Titus]

immunity to kill by any form including lynch is deathproof

He played consistently with it though. You didn't.

I’ve already had my role verified when I claimed my result on Pisskop. Drew could claim any role that got vanilaized.

No. Your role wasn't verified with your result at all. It was easy to fake.

Drew could claim any role, but he's consistent. You weren't.

[Titus]

Titus you are confbiasing pretty badly

No. I'm not. I listened to the arguments and responded to them.

I am pretty sure that Drew was actually vanillaized.

Why did you want to lynch Creature over deciding the truth of the guilty?

[Titus]

@Chenn, The last two votes needed to lynch scum are one of you and Creature and one of jjh, yoda and gobble.

[Titus]

immunity to kill by any form including lynch is deathproof

He played consistently with it though. You didn't.

I’ve already had my role verified when I claimed my result on Pisskop. Drew could claim any role that got vanilaized.

No. Your role wasn't verified with your result at all. It was easy to fake.

Drew could claim any role, but he's consistent. You weren't.

I knew Pisskop had a PT coming into D2. How is that not verified?

I had already claimed the mod confirmation of pisskop. It could be guessed we were masons.

That's speculation but the fact is you knowing pisskop had a PT or not is a sideshow. It doesn't prove PT or Traffic Analyst.

[Titus]

Titus you are confbiasing pretty badly

No. I'm not. I listened to the arguments and responded to them.

I am pretty sure that Drew was actually vanillaized.

Why did you want to lynch Creature over deciding the truth of the guilty?

Because the guilty can self resolve

So can Creature.

That doesn't tell me anything.

[Titus]

Fmpov the guilty has resolved. Why would scum let the PT cop alive?

[Titus]

And be useful

[Titus]

L minus 1

[Titus]

If I am wrong, I'll live with it.

[Titus]

Ugh there feels like there's some theater here.

[Titus]

Chennisden, I can and will do the aggregation. I'll respond to your post on a few hours.

I do have a solve though that I can't get closer on.

Titus, Yurkin, BS, Drew

Chennis or Creature

One of JJH Yoda Gobble

Is that correct? Your thoughts?

If you agree, who is the town? If you disagree, why?

[Titus]

That's the town pool.

[Titus]

BS town I'm fine with, I think Yurkin is a slot that has significant potential to be scum though

He was vanillaized n1. That seems insane for scum to fake.

[Titus]

If you think about it, Alch/Drew is just a really hard True/False quiz

Then run it both ways.

[Titus]

@Chennisden,

I don't think I will ever vote Yurkin. Ever.

[Titus]

{Alch Creature maybe jjh ???}
{Drew Creature Yurkin BS}

And if Creature's town?

[Titus]

See, the blatant voteparking by slots who've coasted the whole game are the reason I'm really hesitant about lynching Alch right now.

Almost every slot alive has coasted though by that definition


Town might be apathetic here.

[Titus]

And look how far we've gotten with that

Look how far you've gotten by ignoring the conftown every day. The lynches have been scum driven.

My town core is together. 3/5 of you are Alchemist's buddies.

[Titus]

Looking at Alchemist's post.

[Titus]

Gobble would have to be scum for Creature to be town

And both of those independently aren't very likely, so.

I don't see how this is true.

Look at the Creature town setup.

You can't bitch about me being confbiased and not reassess your own conclusions.

[Titus]

You hand-wave logical points against yurkin with "oh but Alch is scum, so ignore"

There is no logical point against yurkin. The only point against him is that his posting slowed down after he was vanillaized. So did most everyone.

[Titus]

No. If Alch is scum you should have all the more reason to believe she's town considering she'd be in a way better spot if she bussed as scum.

I go back and forth on Gobble but I firmly believe regardless of Alch/Drew's alignment that scum are in no bus mode since it takes 100% of town to lynch. They'd rather no lynch.

[Titus]

1) They can't
2) It benefits them to get his claim doubted - "If he's so OP how has he not been mislynched?"
3) Even if he gets a guilty there are a myriad of things the guiltied person can do. FOR EXAMPLE, point out #2, which Drew did repeatedly

1) Untrue, given setup balance
2) He could be vanillaized or shot. Scum did neither. Fypov, Drew claimed vanillaized before knowing Alch had a guilty. P.S. Alchemist's question to the mod supports Drew being Vanillaized and that Alch knew.
3) That is wisdom and always existing in mylo. It's not evidence of town or scum.

[Titus]

What was Yurkin before they were vanillized? What were you before you were vanillized, Drew?

Yurkin was double voter.

I was 1 shot bulletproof.

Alright, here's the result.

Alch has a guilty on Drew allegedly.

Unless it is from the hood with Gamma.....he is lying.

Drew claimed vanillaized before the guilty.

Alch asked if vanillaized players retained PTs. The mod said yes. If you didn't think Drew was vanillaized, there would be zero need to ask.

[Titus]

Alchemist has never been at L-1. Titus was lying about that.

I don't lie about votes. I might fake hammer that's it. Town Titus relies too much on votes to start deliberately misleading.

[Titus]

If I die, Drew Yurkin and BS should take charge on which of JJH Yoda and Gobble to lynch. I prefer Yoda atm. There's only 1/3 that should be town. I think Creature and Chenn is 50/50 at best.

[Titus]

It does though because we slow rolled it. I would be surprised if Chennis and Creature were both town. A case could be made on either.

Then if we suppose one of Creature or Chennis is scum, 2/3 of jjh yoda and you are scum.

[Titus]

If I die, I hope Drew can pick up where I left off.

[Titus]

If I die, I hope Drew can pick up where I left off.

Explaine your thoughts on Creature a bit more.

I am extremely confident they are scum.

I think Creature could easily be scum. I am just a but wary of Chennisden's timing.

Creature was definite scum were in the investigators but white knighted Alch and seemed to predict scum would kill Egix over me.

I'm concerned though because of Chennisden using him as a push over Alch in lylo. This theory should be reevaluated based on Alchemist's role.

[Titus]

at one point we had {Chennis Gobble Drew} were on the Creature wagon.

scum would've quickhammered if Creature were town, unless you believe me and gobble are scum.

This is objectively true

Not if they were not on. Plus, I put the guilty reveal right as Creature was gaining steam.

[Titus]

I really think you’re overlooking Yurkin. I think Alchemist scum flip makes it more likely that Chennisden and myself are town from setup perspective.

Negative.

I'm never ever ever reconsidering Yurkin.

[Titus]

Sorry Gobble. I really thought we could win this. The catch was the town needed to respect scum weren't going to vanillaize themselves early and just follow and finish my solve.

It just sucked we had the unforeseeable third party.