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Post
Post #195 (isolation #6) » Wed Nov 22, 2023 12:49 pm
Postby Aureal »
In post 173, jjh927 wrote:
I think based on everyone in the game appearing in the votecount, everyone has a vote.
It is more likely that either there is a role making the number to eliminate lower, or something is making us perceive it as such. The rules say a majority is needed for an execution but the votecounts talk about chomping on dust
Are you saying you think the actual number for an elimination is different and the five to chomp dust is a misdirection? That's just Skygazer's flavor, she likes coming up with all sorts of weird ideas there.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #244 (isolation #11) » Wed Nov 22, 2023 3:51 pm
Postby Aureal »
In post 235, Theta Alpine wrote:
i mean if i had to guess it is a town being able to provide a poe without saying so themselves
or scum being able to provide a poe attempting to mimic the first
or the mod just putting out a list of people for reasons
number three being the only one where i would expect to see you on it
Yeah, who knows if it's someone specifically doing it, I wouldn't rule out it being randomized somehow yet.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 235, Theta Alpine wrote:
i mean if i had to guess it is a town being able to provide a poe without saying so themselves
or scum being able to provide a poe attempting to mimic the first
or the mod just putting out a list of people for reasons
number three being the only one where i would expect to see you on it
Yeah, who knows if it's someone specifically doing it, I wouldn't rule out it being randomized somehow yet.
I am possibly ruling out it being randomized somehow yet.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 143, Taly wrote:
This puts a bad taste in my mouth because I feel like this both rewards
Wheme
for acting rashly and that these townreads are likely not all uninformed.
I disagree because:
1. A read is not a "reward", it's what I think about a person. This is like saying that if somebody who's known for high-efforting as scum plays a low-effort game I'm "rewarding" them for low effort by townreading them. It's silly.
Yeah, but sometimes people are going to feel like playing in that 'silly' way anyway, like they expect to be able to bend others' playstyle to their liking through rewards and punishments in their reads.
(Yeah, I'm still grumpy about T-Bone voting me in ELO instead of scumDrew as punishment for suspecting him as the partner due to him screwing around all day talking about voting Save The Dragons for not doing much of anything despite T-Bone having already called Drew confirmed scum. )
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #294 (isolation #18) » Fri Nov 24, 2023 5:41 pm
Postby Aureal »
In post 219, kabouter wesley wrote:
i suppose if we had to grasp at straws that thats a good one because oranges are, well, orange, and apples are many colors. we happen to all be green ones however so it feels like a weird comparison but its fine i think
You're lying, some of you are oranges and I think you're an orange apple.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #295 (isolation #19) » Fri Nov 24, 2023 5:55 pm
Postby Aureal »
In post 186, jjh927 wrote:
The best way to read Wheme is that his scumgame is extremely deliberate and he does things he believes will advance his win condition. Town wheme does whatever he wants to and takes whatever action he thinks is correct, but is a lot easier to sway and more amenable to engage with logical arguments. On a really surface level, scum!Wheme might see an argument that conflicts with what he is saying or doing, and acknowledge it but just say nah I don't agree. Town!Wheme will see the same argument, and even if he disagrees I think he acknowledges the argument in some light at least.
On a more advanced level, Whemestar is essentially a prime example of where my main townhunting methodology works best because in psychological terms, when town!wheme gives up some ground in an argument it is almost always informational and not normative influence that is the cause. I've played a lot of games with Wheme at this point so I've got a lot of familiarity there, and then I also think he's probably one of the more transparent players when you're looking at this anyway.
Which posts of WhemeStar's did you read as indicating he was actually engaging with your arguments on more than a surface level?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Actually, I think this particular use of the chaos is anti-town so I'm just gonna out my theory without being even remotely cryptic
The rules set out that there are 7 town players and 2 scum players. I think Kabouter Wesley is a puppet account controlled by one of the players in this game. I expected them to be more of a double voter if this was revealed but if they can't even vote then they are probably just a chaos gremlin
Yes, I think that's pretty clearly the obvious answer. This is exactly the effect I was expecting when wesley ended up on what's supposedly a majority vote.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #379 (isolation #27) » Sat Nov 25, 2023 9:52 am
Postby Aureal »
But really, turboyeeting Dragon is a huge mistake, if any of you were seriously trying. The guy regularly gets scumread early on in the game, but often becomes obvtown before long.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
progressions were inconsistent and the emotion in their posts read as false, they also didnt have any detailed opinions on the game and i felt like their questions would be ones id fake as scum to keep below radar
Hoo boy. You really haven't played with him before because this really does seem to just be describing his play style. I assume the "emotion" you refer to is his energetic way of engaging with things. His inconsistency definitely can (frustratingly) show up as town when he's not got a lot of time and isn't even reading properly. I don't know who
has
detailed opinions on this game yet other than on the mechanics, it's basically been a lot of mechanics discussion and not much else up until now.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #402 (isolation #30) » Sat Nov 25, 2023 10:27 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 335, Taly wrote:
if this thread is as null as some people elude then a good way to relief that is mod confirmation of a slots alignment
And that seems rather backwards to me. Things are pretty null because of a dearth of alignment-related interactions. What good does confirming a slot's alignment do without much interaction about it?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
I don't really follow what you mean, and expecting Dragon to have perfectly sensible and consistent thoughts always is a recipe for frustration. I've been there.
In post 255, IceDragon70 wrote:
I disagree because:
1. A read is not a "reward", it's what I think about a person. This is like saying that if somebody who's known for high-efforting as scum plays a low-effort game I'm "rewarding" them for low effort by townreading them. It's silly.
2. Why do you think it's informed? I mean I don't have meta on scum!Wheme so maybe I'm wrong, but to me it seems very unlikely that scum!them would act with such rash / goofy behavior in a way that draws a lot of attention. How is that not a valid read?
i found 2 to be rhetorical on a second glance but i could see an alternative perspective
Not sure what you think is rhetorical, or why it'd be problematic if it was.
In post 284, IceDragon70 wrote:
The probelm I have is with Taly not answering it at all and also not really responding to what bianco said.
In post 284, IceDragon70 wrote:
The probelm I have is with Taly not answering it at all and also not really responding to what bianco said.
In post 306, IceDragon70 wrote:
Alright I will do some ISO job to see if I find anything scummy
Didn't you already find something scummy
I honestly kinda forgot about that
But yeah I should probably pressure that
Oh look I'm already voting Taly
this was after my response to his prompt, which is the main ping i had with this slot
i also tend to scumread promises that arent kept
What promises are you referring to here? He did start looking at ISOs. And what exactly 'pinged' you? That he apparently didn't acknowledge a response from you?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
I was gonna ask who Wesley is as well, but seems like it is a mystery to all.
Also, Aureal will hopefully get a chuckle out of hard defending mybslot without even knowing it lol.
(Though I do find it odd that she was so greatly defending Ice, but I don't think I could scum doing that unless they really really want the town cred......plus seems kinda par for the course on how she acts when fired up town).
So far that is my only real read, but still at work so will catch up more later on.
Yeah, thinking Dragon was getting turboyeeted based on vague "he feels weird" suspicion was rather alarming since he normally comes off that way early on. He's certainly capable of putting on a strong showing once things get past there so he's like, the last person who should be getting a swift boot.
(Although personally I feel better about my chances of reading you accurately, can't count on thinking the same thoughts as him all the time like I needed to finally townread him last time )
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #445 (isolation #33) » Sun Nov 26, 2023 8:56 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 436, biancospino wrote:
I don't understand why are we just assuming that Drew is condemned over the much simpler explanation that some effect just prevented his wagon from being a majority.
Because some people don't care to think about mechanics I guess?
Also someone having a vote weight <1 would explain the 5/10 thing.
VOTE: wesley
Why vote wesley?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
To be more precise, I'm strong on it being a terrible idea to turboyeet the slot halfway through day one. I don't have a super strong read anywhere yet, though I do get some town vibes making it even more likely than the default 3-1 odds of being town.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
would be told about such a thing. This is obviously a quite bastard game so I wouldn't lay money on it, but I
really
do not think that is the explanation for what's going on here and find the way some people are trying to find alternate explanations other than the obvious one to be
quite
peculiar.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #457 (isolation #36) » Sun Nov 26, 2023 10:32 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 449, biancospino wrote:
... and I find the way you are declaring the "delayed execution" theory the
obvious
to be quite peculiar. To me the "someone is voteless" theory is much more credible.
Uh, I think you need to double check who's pushing the weird theories that do not involve Wesley being a sham without a vote, because they sure are not coming from me.
Look, I'm lazy, and don't see any appealing reason not to just cut the very obvious gordian knot in the room.
Do you need an appealing reason to not vote for no elimination?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Ok, I guess I should have just read a few more posts haha.
Aureal, did you think Dragons was limmed at this point?
Yeah, I was playing Valheim for a while then looked in to see a bunch of posts and people going "let's just flip Dragon" "ok" so I went "?!?!?!?" and skimmed quickly to the end to see wtf was going on now. It wasn't until the announcement of the prod on Meuh came in my pedit that I started twigging to it not actually being twilight. Which was exactly what I'd been expecting if wesley ended up on a 'majority' wagon, I just hadn't registered that one of the votes came from that slot.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #507 (isolation #39) » Sun Nov 26, 2023 6:42 pm
Postby Aureal »
That seems to be par for the course this game- apart from the flash wagon there hasn't really been much in the way of people expressing scumreads. That's a little worrying, combined with how there's not been anything else in the way of real wagons either.
VOTE: HPE
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #527 (isolation #40) » Mon Nov 27, 2023 9:49 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 523, WhemeStar wrote:
Like usually I can feel like ppl are obv town and I was thinking princess was earlier when I was doing my hurting theta thing but idk everyoen is meh
So you were just doing that as a reaction test?
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 523, WhemeStar wrote:
Like usually I can feel like ppl are obv town and I was thinking princess was earlier when I was doing my hurting theta thing but idk everyoen is meh
So you were just doing that as a reaction test?
Oh I glossed over this, don't think I skimmed far enough back to see that it was When who hurt Theta.
Why would you hurt her, if you thought she was obv town?
Pretty sure that refers to him thinking HPE was obvtown for trying to stop him.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Of the wagon, there's me, HPE who is not unlikely to be town off of the TA thing, wesley that, well I still want out but I'll give you it's probably not a tenth orange player, so it would remain jj and Taly. Now jj is also in the TA thing, thou notably entered it last, and at that point TA would probably not actually have done it if left to her devices anyway, so that's not enough for me to pluck him out of this semi-poe
Can't even parse this. If I assume "the TA thing" is Wheme hurting her and "TA would probably not actually have done it" means "TA probably wouldn't have actually died" it's going out of the way to keep jjh in the pool while saying nothing about Taly, which is who bianco votes here.
VOTE: biancospino
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #572 (isolation #49) » Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:35 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 567, Theta Alpine wrote:
bianco felt town though guh
like their latest theory is a bit hard to understand but that does not feel alignment indicative
THEN WHY DON'T YOU VOTE SOMEONE ELSE @_@
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #576 (isolation #50) » Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:42 am
Postby Aureal »
In post 571, biancospino wrote:
I don't get what there is to parse here, HPE (an myself) had already stepped in at the point where jj enetered the frey so clearly by that point Wheme was already not going to end up going all the way.
And I'm not voting jj, so clearly I'm placing him at the bottom of that poe anyway
Yeah that's what I assume you meant but it's not what the words said. And why Taly over jjh?
VOTE: HPE
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
that would probably also be the world where dragons/drew is scum though
i am not really sure there are two other people off that wagon that could be scum together without involving dragons/drew as one of them
If there was ever a wagon that probably isn't going to break nicely into whatever split of where scum are likely positioned, I'd say it's that wagon. It came about in the course of an hour, I think it's more a matter of who was paying attention at the relevant time.
And I could totally envision like, a Meuh/WhemeStar team. This gamestate is freaking weird with how dead wagons have been. This suggests to me that scum are fine with no pressure and it all coming down to a last minute rush. Maybe they're just too lurky to care, or maybe they feel well positioned/confident enough to get out of trouble if things start to coalesce on them.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #628 (isolation #54) » Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:04 pm
Postby Aureal »
In post 621, Taly wrote:
so can you answer my question on why
jjh
is scum?
Why do you think jjh is town?
In post 620, Theta Alpine wrote:
wesley i have mechanical reasons to think you are not scum and yet you are challenging my self control to not vote you
mindmeld
Really? I think this is hilarious.
I guess you guys just aren't as convinced about what wesley's existence here means as I am.
VOTE: WhemeStar
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Post
Post #663 (isolation #58) » Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:42 pm
Postby Aureal »
Yeah, theoretically we might not actually be in twilight yet. I don't expect we aren't and neither does Wheme, but he's got a very different idea of what caused a lack of twilight before apparently. So I don't know why he expects it now.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance