Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[MoosyDoosy]

I'm here I'm here. Hi guys how are you all.

[MoosyDoosy]

WOw1! Town read! Syndesis!

[MoosyDoosy]

VOTE: hawkleader3

Might as well.

@Swordsworth, explain your vote onto hawkleader3 plzerino?

[MoosyDoosy]

Just curious, is everyone here brand new?

Nope. I have some Mafia experience. If you want I can give you some of my games, but lemme warn you that it'll be a waste of your time.

WOw1! Town read! Syndesis!

Do you mean this?

Just curious, is everyone here brand new?

Nope.

VOTE: swordsworth

for the waggins.

Ofc I mean it. Syndesis is ez town read. mMmm, good good, start the other wagon.

[MoosyDoosy]

A. His thoughts lined up w/ mine. hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.
B. Him pushing his thoughts makes me think he's town. There's no reason for Mafia to stick their head out this early in the game. It would also be really difficult to keep this up which just makes it less likely for him to do this as Mafia.

(ofc this can change over time looking at how his reads change over time but I like him for now)

[MoosyDoosy]

to join a wagon

What's your stance on hawkleader3 right now?

[MoosyDoosy]

VOTE: hawkleader3

Might as well.

@Swordsworth, explain your vote onto hawkleader3 plzerino?

Please explain yours, especially since your reason is "might as well".

I already did. He responded to pressure terribly and flailed around trying to get rid of the pressure.

What's your stance on hawkleader3 right now?

true neutral

So his actions make him neither town nor scum for you?

[MoosyDoosy]

So his actions make him neither town nor scum for you?

Any thoughts on how Hawk's later posts? I have an opinion on them but would like to hear yours first to prevent introducing leading question bias.

I have a theory that the beginning of the game typically follows a pattern of events. The definitions of each event in that pattern are necessarily vague to allow for variations in the details, but my theory is that coming up with a model of early D1 in closed setups is entirely possible and that it will be accurate the majority of the time.

The basis for this concept is that up until a certain point in that pattern, the likelihood of finding scum based on their posts is going to be ridiculously small. Hawk hasn't reached a place in his posting yet that I would consider to be at all helpful in guessing at his alignment. So no opinions on him yet.

Put in a much simpler way: I don't see anything worth speculating on from Hawk yet. But we'll get there.

The point of the start of the game is to get out of it and the fastest way to do that is to form opinions on people and push those opinions.

[MoosyDoosy]

So share some thoughts. Who looks most suspicious right now?

[MoosyDoosy]

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

Moosy is pushing on the easiest wagons in the thread right now in an attempt to mislead the thread.

[MoosyDoosy]

Oh wait, that was such a Mafia oriented post! Oh wait, he's self conscious! Mafia!

[MoosyDoosy]

oh wait, he might be town screwing around! But he might have expected that as Mafia which is why he's acting that way!

[MoosyDoosy]

hawk may or may not be the most sensible person in the thread, but it's a pity that he's Mafia.

[MoosyDoosy]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

[MoosyDoosy]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

p good. you?

@TheCow: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

I'm doing relatively okay. Normal day like any other I guess.

@toolenduso: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

[MoosyDoosy]

iranoavp goes to the no-lynch pile for now. Imma have to look at Syndesis again later. Disappointed that you guys are reading me as town lol. Might have to do crazier shit later on to have you guys lynch me.

Also interested in what hawkleader does. He's at L-2 and he did just happen to ask when claiming should begin...

On that note, I'm infamous for not reading OP's correctly. If I'm right, there's no list of possible roles in the game and they're selected at random right?

[MoosyDoosy]

Spoilered for size.

Spoiler: usually as the game goes on I quotewall less

@Swordsworth, explain your vote onto hawkleader3 plzerino?

This is actually the question I was about to ask.

hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad

Serioisly, are you me?

Just curious, is everyone here brand new?

For certain definitions of new.

Well hawkleader, you say this is the most boring part of the game and that you're eager to get it out of the way, so then you flop your vote on me? That doesn't strike me well.

I agree with the sentiments in this post but something about it bothers me.

VOTE: MoosyDoosy until I get a clear understanding of what just happened to him

This is a weird vote and a weird post.

Wasn't aware that people did it at L-2 as a rule. My vote's for L-1, that way scum doesn't get info on town PRs unless it's totally necessary to prevent town from lynching a PR.

Interesting choice of wording...?

So your push was serious and not a joke and I read it correctly?

[MoosyDoosy]

Can we just look at toolenduso's reaction to hawk's claim real quick folks. I still kinda wanna lynch hawk tbh. Mainly because I want to see if he's scum or town. If he's scum then everything was all well and good with his reads. If he's town then that means Mafia somewhere threw an easy townread at me when I was posting super chaotically. Get my reasoning?

[MoosyDoosy]

On that note, I'm infamous for not reading OP's correctly. If I'm right, there's no list of possible roles in the game and they're selected at random right?

The roles in the game are crafted carefully to balance the town vs. scum, and then assigned randomly to whatever players sign up.

But I must ask, why do you feel it's necessary to mention you're infamous for that?

Oh, I played quite a bit on other sites. I think I have close to 15 town games and 1 scum game. At a certain point I was roaming around and signing up for every game I saw on the hopes that I would roll Mafia because I double bused my teammates for the win in my 1 Mafia game and I find playing Mafia very fun. But during the time I was roaming around, I frequently got PR's but never actually properly read the OP to understand the depth of it or even the proper use of my role. During that time I would also frequently do crazy D1 tactics as I really didn't care for the game if I rolled town and just spam things or troll in games. Then I realized I needed to take a break and am back after a few weeks of no Mafia. In the site I did play on, I'm notorious for trolling D1, not reading the OP properly, not knowing how to use my roles correctly, but am known for putting in work N1 onwards.

[MoosyDoosy]

After my investigation, I believe Hawke has a reasonable chance of flipping town. I'd advise against voting him.

What exactly did you find?

[MoosyDoosy]

Oh never mind I'm dumb didn't see your other post.

[MoosyDoosy]

I don't completely understand the concept of RVS, honestly. If I have to vote someone, let's go ahead and

VOTE: hawkleader3

because, I dunno...I'm still hungry?

Swordsworth, can you explain your vote at this point in the thread?

If FA_Q2 could respond to Syndesis' push that would be great as well.

[MoosyDoosy]

Yes we should lynch hawk when he was un CC'd. Just the fact that Mafia will make him a target off the bat gives us more incentive to kill him ASAP.

[MoosyDoosy]

I am being completely serious. hawk is smart and realizes that I have logical reasons for spearheading a massive push onto him that has huge impact and influence right now.

[MoosyDoosy]

Yes hawk I completely think that I can get your lynch off at this point in time. I am absolutely confident and serious in this.

[MoosyDoosy]

Moosy that strategy makes no sense. If he is scum fakeclaiming then leaving him alive means we might actually end up with a more clear indication that he's fakeclaiming, and then we lynch him. In the meantime we lynch somebody else, hopefully somebody who's scum. If he is town then lynching him means we've lynched a friggin' PR and we get no benefit from that PR at all.

I don't really expect you to listen to me because that doesn't seem to be your style, so how about we worry about this if anybody else is actually interested in lynching hawk.

Spoiler: ISO reads

hawk:

-Just going to skip this for now in the interest of saving time because especially this early in the game his claim preempts pretty much any other factor I could use to read him.

Soap:

-Main focus has been on me and my thing with moosy. In a surface-level way, this actually strikes me as town. When I was secretive about something in my last game, it was two townies who endlessly pushed me trying to get me to be more explicit.
-Nothing else other than that that seems alignment indicative.

FA:

-Second post (#95) he places hawk at L-1. Says hawk is trying to appease people and is ignoring mounting pressure on his slot.
-His response to hawk's claim does not address anything about the claim itself but rather continues to try to make hawk look bad. This seems scummy to me.
-Has a lot of posts where he's clearly trying to get people to talk more, which looks towny.
-Unvotes, I'm assuming because of my arguing, in #161.

Moosy:

-Expressed conviction waaay too early. Like, his second post. Then he has more conviction about more things before there's really too much of a basis for having that conviction (#30, #34, #36). I take this as more town-looking than scum, it genuinely looks like somebody who is bored with D1 and wants to try to have fun with it by being a troll.
-That also explains his cheeky response to me in #60, #61 and #62.
-The way he's doggedly sticking to his hawk vote despite multiple in-thread explanations for why this is a bad idea also seems like town...Moosy seems reckless and stubborn, and as scum it's much better to be flexible so you don't get scumread for stupid stuff.

TheCow:

-Starts doing a lot of work right off the bat, approaches the game with a drive to base reads on evidence. Tend to think this looks towny, but then it's something I do to guide my thoughts and make them look more town when I'm scum. There is one part where it looks kind of genuinely town though, and that's where he's asking hawk for his typing speed to see whether he had his claim typed up beforehand. Why this would impact his evaluation of hawk's claim I'm not sure, but TC obviously saw something behind it, and given some of the other stuff he's looked at (he did meta research and commented on a player's use of punctuation), it fits into his MO.
-He does put Hawk back at L-1 after the first person unvotes Hawk following the claim (#104), but then there were enough people who didn't immediately unvote Hawk following his claim that I don't think scum could explain all of them. Plus, you know, the unlikelihood of all three scum being on the first substantial wagon to form. So TC leans town for me.

Metrion:

-Null, only two posts and neither have anything substantial.

Sword:

-Obviously newbie, to the point where he doesn't know how to unvote. This needs to inform the read on him.
-I do think that basically preempts the scum explanation for his eager entrance to the game.
-It also makes me doubt the motivation behind posts like #47 and #97, where he seems to be looking for reasons to scumread people. Maybe this is just him learning to scumhunt.
-So null, basically.

ira:

-Also very newbish.
-#76 seems somewhat towny to me. He's exhibiting paranoia of a lot of different players and I kind of don't think such a new scum player would think to do fake pre-flip associatives.
-Posts like #77 and #158 demonstrate an openness to ira's thought process that strikes me as town as well.
-Interaction with hawk slot could come from scum, though. His vote on hawk in #76 put hawk at L-2, and his unvote was made in response to my urging people to unvote. It's kind of like I gave him an excuse to.

Chaotic:

-Nothing substantial, null.

Syndesis:

-Has a clearly self-doubting attitude about scumhunting, which I think looks towny. Some examples: in #105, asking if somebody thought it was a good idea to lynch a claimed PR, in #110 beginning a sentence by saying he doesn't like a post and then reversing and saying it's fine.
-Yeah it just seems like he's not very sure of himself, which I think he would be more self-conscious about as scum.

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Too few scumreads right now, which could be a product of scum being in {metrion, chaotic, sword}, but I expect this to improve as we go along.

Right now I think dave looks bad. May do some meta work on him, but only so as to find out whether he also posts like this as town...when I tried to look for patterns that could indicate scum or town in meta work in my last game, it didn't go so well.

VOTE: dave

Exactly. It's because hawk is solved over time that we should kill him right now as that makes the most sense.

[MoosyDoosy]

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

On the surface it would seem Moosy would have to be town, because there is the assumption that scum would not risk going all in like that on a clearly unpopular position. If Hawk flipped scum, Moosy might be able to ride that to a nearly confirmed town status. It's a little similar to the way my partner got town cred in one of my scum games. Too early to do associations, but the two of them being scumbuddies is something to guard against.

mMmm that reminds me of my glory days where I bused both the roleblocker and goon on my team as Mafia. Not only that but I tried to kill the roleblocker D1. Took me until D4 or so but I got it accomplished in the end. yesss

[MoosyDoosy]

Because it is definitely the absolute right move to kill hawk.

[MoosyDoosy]

Alright hi

Moosy, I dug through your ISO, and to be perfectly clear: you ooze scum from your pores. I can understand your initial push against hawk, but I've quickly lost faith in you being town what with your 167 and 195. They give a strong impression of attempting to get Hawk out of the way. Sure, the mafia may target him tonight, but if I was scum I'd be trying to optimize. After all, ideally, why waste a kill slot on an outed jailkeeper when you can free up that kill via lynch?

yess so lynch me sson.

[MoosyDoosy]

bro I'm clearly scum that made a slip up trying to continue to push onto hawk which is why I'm trying to cover up for it with obstinateness. This is very clear right now.

[MoosyDoosy]

bro I'm clearly scum that made a slip up trying to continue to push onto hawk which is why I'm trying to cover up for it with obstinateness. This is very clear right now.

Who does this help? Who reads this and says "oh. He's just joking around. He seems relaxed. I'm getting a town read on this guy".

Nobody. I have a question. Why are you worried about lynching me if I am going to die by night 1 anyway? Shouldn't my death already be a given on night 1 and you could waste your vote on someone else who may be scum? Not only my reads, but the scum reads of other people would help me determine who I'm jailing on night one. Do you have any other scum suspects besides me?

Yes which is why there is a massive wagon on you spearheaded by me.

[MoosyDoosy]

hawk is right. D1 is an incredibly good time to deal with Moosy.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: MoosyDoosy

[MoosyDoosy]

Spoiler:

Chaotic Neutrality (null): No read on him until he makes his post later on his reads (I feel for him. That's a lot of reading).

Davesaz (null): Love this guy as a player. Asks a lot of good questions to get reads on people like "what's your reason for this" or "please explain in detail". He seems the most experience although CN has been on since 2010 and I haven't read his posts yet. He's being patient with his voting and I respect that. My read on him is null mainly because I haven't seen him respond to pressure because he has had no pressure.

FA_Q2 (slightly town): Again, I love those question marks. He states claims and makes reasons for his claims as well like any scum hunter should. He has been targeted once before as scum and dealt with it splendidly (and by that I mean better than I first handled it). He has not made any clear definitive posts that I can point to and say "Boom. This makes him town," but I can expect a post from FA_Q2 to swing me that way at anytime.

Iraonavp (town): post 76 and post 77 say it all. He is making reads on everyone, hinting but not jumping to conclusions. I especially love reading the exclamation marks in his posts because it makes me feel like I'm reading a mystery novel! I do not agree with his voting of FA_Q2 because I believes that when there are real suspects of scum out there, voting him for no reason really grinds his gears. Anyways, although I do not agree with Iraonavp's statements, I understand his reasons and all of his posts. Town.

Meitron (null): Someone has to be the lst guy to get the memo that we weren't RVSing. Maybe he chose to RVS to show how he doesn't believe any arguments that were made up until that point. That would be cool. He unvotes, the V/LA.

MoosyDoosy (scum): I have to read his votes neutrally and pretending I'm not Hawkleader3. Sure. During the time he voted me, I was awkward with my intros and backed off Sydnesis early after being pressed. In the early stages of the game, it's enough to call me scummy. Since then, he has read three different people Syndesis (who started up my bandwagon and has been town-like ever since), Iranoavp (who as I said earlier. Clearly town), Hawk, Hawkleader3, and me. It seems like he wants me to be lynched. Maybe because I'm a PR? Maybe he is too lazy to go back to ISO people to look for scum and it's easier to just say Hawk is scum? Whatever it is, I see him as slightly scummy under normal circumstances, but because it's hard finding scum in other people in this game, it makes him look extra scummy.

SoapBar (slightly town): Hasn't posted a lot of substance, but again. Lots of questions that he asks. He gave some reads of his and the second half of his posts were him talking to himself. It's not a lot of posts, but the more reading I see from people, the more town I perceive people to be.

Swordsworth (null): He's voted and stated why he has voted. He didn't respond to pressure on bandwagoning against him, but it feels like he was posting more when it was safer. There isn't a big enough sample size to confirm this, but it made him took a little suspicious. But since his active reading counteracts this scum suspicion, it leaves me with a null read on him.

Syndesis (slightly town): When i first save her couple of posts, I was like "OMG this girl is boastful and it needs to stop. Please be scum!" and her overwhelming confidence that I was scum made me angry. I couldn't tell if she was joking or that confident in her abilities. Once I got over the fact that she wasn't scum, she seems slightly town to me. She is kind of like Davesaz in that i want to see how she responds to pressure. But with the way she acts right now, I can assume how she would act if she was accused

TheCow (slightly town): If he reads every scum victim like he reads me and studies me, this guy is for sure town! the WPM thing was slightly weird and if I, A PR town, was lynched based off how consistent my typing speeds are? I would've left the forum for a little while. He did lots of research, but Cow. I don't think I act the same as I did years ago. I was 14-15 years old when I played those games. I'm 18 now. This strategy would've been brilliant had my games been consistent. Kudos for the effort for reading through my games.

Toolenduso (town): I have to admit I overlooked Tool a lot because he posted long posts when I didn't have the time to read them. After reading his posts now, I see him as town. I had a problem in the beginning when he said sword was the most suspicious for having an eager to please entrance when my entrance looked more that way than anyone's, but of course I wasn't going to tell him this with me being close to lynched. I let it go. Since then, he has asked a lot of questions and has scum hunted well. He knows when to hold them and knows when to fold them. He also gave his ISOs. Nothing toolenduso has done except post 53 seems scum-like at all.

Let me know if anyone has any questions about my reads. Thanks for your patience. This took way longer than expected. Hahaha

I love how you love a lot of things. Rather than sucking up why don't you actually give out reads and expectations.

[MoosyDoosy]

I feel that Moosy's sarcastic posts and self-votes are more likely to come from a town-aligned player frustrated with accusations leveled at them. I simply do not see a scum-aligned player placing a vote on themselves or playing so... suicidally. While I do not think that this is a beneficial outlet or good play, I do not think it is worth lynching them simply to make them change their behavior.

Actually, I've used the martyr play in the past for my one game as Mafia. It was pretty funny because everyone in the game scumread me at a certain point but no one was willing to vote me because I was martyring. We ended up mislynching a townie that day. It's definitely not beyond me. Although you are reading the tone behind my posts wrong. I am definitely not frustrated and am pretty actively trolling and having fun.

[MoosyDoosy]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

[MoosyDoosy]

Not sure if Moosy trolling, sarcastic, or serious.

Not sure if I really want to think about it, either

The better question is does it matter?

At this point it seems that moosey is dead set on being anti town. We will have to deal with it at some point but day one is a bad day to do so.

Why is day 1 a bad day to do so?

Because day one is a terrible day to waste. Many people here seem to think that it is a good time to get rid of lackluster players but that simply means you are entering day 2 as a day one repeat - a day with almost no information whatsoever. It is very important for town, IMHO, to get out of that stage as fast as possible and get good interactions to proceed with. Information early on is crucial.

Basically, I hate just stabbing in the dark and that is essentially what day one is.

I don't like Moosey's posting either - it is worthless - but if we end up lynching it we are going for a PL rather than a scum lynch. While not entirely against PL's they are more of a last resort than a starting option. I hope that moosey will clean it up as the game progresses and we get more to analyze.

I agree with this sentiment. I'm very worried that Moosy might be scum trying to get away with it by being obnoxious, but if I'm wrong then we learn almost nothing from lynching him.

I am actually scum trying to get away with attempting to push hawk by being obnoxious.

[MoosyDoosy]

So deadline is tomorrow right? If so, I should start getting some cereal. First comes davesaz's response to my question tho.

[MoosyDoosy]

No, deadline is more like 11-12 days from now.

oh what sadness. Oh damn ur right, 2 weeks...

[MoosyDoosy]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

[MoosyDoosy]

Don't tell me I didn't warn you guys when we're in lylo and you didn't lynch me...

[MoosyDoosy]

Chaotic Neutrality is scum for not voting for me. Serious post as usual.

[MoosyDoosy]

Let's discuss Scum Moosy. He's super scum. Why is he still alive?

Personally I'd rather die as well.

btw, how long can you be afk before you're replaced?

[MoosyDoosy]

Meh, might as well put in some effort before I go afk. I'd prefer if Swordsworth or FA_Q2 get lynched for today. I'd like it if ChaoticNeutrality can give some reasons behind his thoughts rather than soft pushing people and trying to get others to make reasons for him. iranoavp or whatever his name is needs to be looked at again. And by that, I mean his ISO. I said he was no-lynch pile for today but that may change. His vote onto hawkleader3 might have been an opportunity to jump onto an easy wagon and his subsequent jump onto the next popular wagon with terrible reasoning was highly suspect.

If people would discuss what I've said that would be great.

btw, I am Mafia attempting to point people in all the wrong directions so there's actually no need to listen to what I've been saying.

[MoosyDoosy]

I find myself adrift in this game.

This may be the only sane person in this thread other than myself.

[MoosyDoosy]

Example: Moosy is scummy and Tools defense of him feels scummy.

so where exactly has toolenduso defended me?

[MoosyDoosy]

You know you can ask for replacement, right?

That would just make ur lives easier and we don't really want that, do we?

idrc what others say, we're killing Swordsworth/FA_Q2/MoosyDoosy today and we're gonna use the flip to analyze the others like ChaoticNeutrality/iraonavp/toolenduso.

Start piling on these three wagons boys.

[MoosyDoosy]

Chaotic does look objectively scummy -- Moosy is, and has been since the beginning of the game, lynchbait

Or you're blatantly defending scum in an effort to look town. It's pretty clear you're trying very hard to look townie.

I haven't voted Moosy yet because I haven't had a chance to ISO anyone and look in depth at my reads, they're very surface level. But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

Infact if he flips scum I'm sure someone (you) is going to argue I was bussing. Kinda screwed either way.

He's scummy and it's not his play style that I take issue with.

This man is probably scum tbh. But feel free to lynch me. Just don't be mad when I flip blue - whoops - I mean red. Darn. Totally let out that I'm a power role by accident. Sorry guys, totally my bad, shouldn't do that in the future.

If you have surface reads you expand on them rather than soft pushing lol. And no, it's not me you're having an issue with, it's pretty obvious that it's my playstyle. If you take away all the garbage I've been pulling, I'm probably the person who's been bringing up the most points and giving town a clear direction. We lynch Swordsworth or FA_Q2 who were both early wagons first. Then we use that to judge the people who came afterwards. Unless someone gives a clear case that there is an obvious Mafia I won't switch from this plan and I highly obvious you guys to do the same. Although I'll admit I'm highly tempted to kill Chaotic Neutrality.

[MoosyDoosy]

o/ lolbabe

[MoosyDoosy]

Moosy I have a question: Are you going to play more newbie games as an SE after this game?

hell nah.

[MoosyDoosy]

Actually I just iso'd FA again after reading 378 and I dunno if I'm confbiasing but he looks kind of scummier now than a couple of days ago. I was going to see if CN would crack a bit more but deadline is looming so.

VOTE: FA_Q2

What in particular?

[MoosyDoosy]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: hawkleader3
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Soapbar
UNVOTE:
VOTE: FA_Q2
UNVOTE:
VOTE: MoosyDoosy
UNVOTE:
VOTE: toolenduso
UNVOTE:
VOTE: TheCow
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Metrion
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Swordsworth
UNVOTE:
VOTE: lolbabe
UNVOTE:
VOTE: iraonavp
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Syndesis
UNVOTE:
VOTE: davesaz
UNVOTE:
VOTE: iraonavp

[MoosyDoosy]

@hawkleader3 this is srsly how I play m8y m8. I can actually give you games from different sites where I do this tbh.

mMmm I wanna look at Syndesis + iraonavp real quick.

[MoosyDoosy]

yes i'm good, read CN as scum but just didn't do anything about it.

[MoosyDoosy]

Droning, to speak tediously about something. I'm unsure of how this connects your point and using "weird" to describe things isn't exactly informative.

If I was looking to grab anything then that was rather convenient that I was only commenting on his most recent post and not cherry picking.

But I mean I'm fine if I end up ultimately being lynched for the most part, I think we're probably in a good spot. I'm surprised as I should have been shot instead of Swords if that was a town aligned kill. Kind of baffling to me. So it's the only thing that worries me as it could suggest another scum kill and to not be in as good of a spot.

----

Moosy for the most part after is well a thing. 309 he pushes away from a possible CN lynch (at this point CN had two votes tool and FA) but in such a way that CN is still suspect. 312 dismisses CN as probably scum but they stick with their plan and attempt to get others to follow, stating that unless obvious scum was outed then they would not be voting anyone but swords or FA. Apparently the plan was later ditched and a vote was ultimately left on Ira for reasons I'd actually like to hear from them, the post largely seems like they just kinda gave up the push but that's baseless speculation really. I believe Tool mentioned 293 was Moosy saying that he was leaning town on CN but his thoughts were changing. Moosy was actually talking about Iraonavp not CN in that post, and it seems like Moosy was always leaning scum on CN.

Is this true Moosy?

A lot of Moosy's posts could be written off as silly nonsensical posts, and I for one don't subscribe to their personal wifom hell, but I think when you look at what they actually do they are an interesting player really. Interesting in the terms that their strategy seems to be working, as they are pushing their ideas and at the same time not entirely appealing for anyone to pursue a lynch or kill on. So from what they have actually pushed I don't see them in a terrible light, I don't see their pushes as obvious town indicators but I can see from a town standpoint where they could come from. Which is why I'm more leaning town on them to put it simplistically.

I'd like to see the fruits of looking through syndesis and iraonavp. Being the last thing they mentioned.



Soap and Iraonavp I'm reading more as scum. I'm keeping an open mind on Synd. I'll explain later, right now I'm off to eat.

lol tbh I play the way I do because it works. CN was scum from the moment he soft pushed me but tried to make others make the reasons for him. Unfortunately, I was majorly afk at the end of D1 because I hate D1 with a passion. toolenduso looks town tbh ^^ so that's good. My iraonavp vote was actually serious. I'm going to look through his ISO one more time and read through EoD1 because I didn't do so properly. ayeeE gj town.

[MoosyDoosy]

@iraonavp, what's your read on Metrion right now?

^^ probably like the most prevalent question right now.

[MoosyDoosy]

VOTE: FA_Q2

Better him than me

FA_Q2 probably town lmao.

[MoosyDoosy]

VOTE: iraonavp

^^ For now.

[MoosyDoosy]

See? This is very convenient. I form a wagon with zero reasoning and no one points me out on it.

[MoosyDoosy]

If he's scummy you should vote.

[MoosyDoosy]

There's a lot to read Ira off but I'm not sure how to read it.

read it as scum

[MoosyDoosy]

So his actions make him neither town nor scum for you?

Any thoughts on how Hawk's later posts? I have an opinion on them but would like to hear yours first to prevent introducing leading question bias.

I have a theory that the beginning of the game typically follows a pattern of events. The definitions of each event in that pattern are necessarily vague to allow for variations in the details, but my theory is that coming up with a model of early D1 in closed setups is entirely possible and that it will be accurate the majority of the time.

The basis for this concept is that up until a certain point in that pattern, the likelihood of finding scum based on their posts is going to be ridiculously small. Hawk hasn't reached a place in his posting yet that I would consider to be at all helpful in guessing at his alignment. So no opinions on him yet.

Put in a much simpler way: I don't see anything worth speculating on from Hawk yet. But we'll get there.

So how's this going for ya?

[MoosyDoosy]

hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.

These were my immediate thoughts when I read the page 1 exchange between hawkleader3 and Syndesis. In particular, I disliked 20, as Syndesis did not give what was in my opinion an adequate reason for voting him. It felt as if hawkleader3 over-anticipated the validity of Syndesis' push, due to knowledge of his own scum alignment!

Additionally, in 64, I do not agree with his assessment of MoosyDoosy's trio of posts. It appears he is finding poor excuses to place a vote, which is consistent with his earlier awkward stances around voting.

VOTE: hawkleader3



Indeed, I also dislike Metrion's 65. His RV seems out of place considering that there is currently a serious wagon already taking place.

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

This soft defense of hawkleader3 is unaccompanied by any kind of clarification of his stance.

I feel that, especially if hawkleader3 is scum-aligned, Metrion is likely to be scum-aligned!

I believe both MoosyDoosy and Syndesis to be town-aligned, their posts seem easygoing and to represent a casual train-of-thought process which is more likely to come from town.

Toolenduso seems guarded, as if he has something to hide.

VOTE: Metrion

Thoughts?

[MoosyDoosy]

Also, there's the fact that he read me as town earlier for my chaotic posting which makes me immediately suspicious of him as there was little reason to think that I was that alignment.

^^ The reason why I keep saying to look at his ISO is because it shows his waffliness and how he jumps on all the popular wagons.

[MoosyDoosy]

Can we just look at toolenduso's reaction to hawk's claim real quick folks. I still kinda wanna lynch hawk tbh. Mainly because I want to see if he's scum or town. If he's scum then everything was all well and good with his reads. If he's town then that means Mafia somewhere threw an easy townread at me when I was posting super chaotically. Get my reasoning?

Oh and people wondering. ^^ Basis of my iraonavp suspicion back in D1 right after the hawkleader claim. yeS I kno what I'm doing even when I'm being chaotic ssons.

[MoosyDoosy]

Well, here we have it!

Usually it is customary to request a claim before hammering

, so please do not do that again, Swordsworth. I can understand that you might be new to mafia and not know that, though.

Did you really expect a claim from CN at that point in time?

Yes, I've read other games and isn't that usually what happens? Put someone to L-1, then someone else states intent to hammer, then they ask for a claim.

Wasn't deadline within...a couple of hours at that point? It was very likely CN wouldn't get a chance to claim.

That's a good point, I actually did not consider that! I can see where you're getting at with this line of questioning, but no, I would definitely have hammered Chaotic Neutrality even without a claim if the deadline loomed. I would have much preferred a lynch on someone I considered town-aligned than a nolynch. Probably how it would have gone was:

Me: "intent to hammer pls claim cn"
CN: *is afk*
You: "cn is afk"
Me: "k, ]v[]cnVOTE: [v/]"

Also, I seriously can't believe no one pointed this out. It's basically caught scum. Only reason why he would know CN was going to claim was if they meditated between each other in the scum chat that CN would claim if it looked like he would be hammered. Him saying that he didn't consider it is just a cover-up for it. Literally just hammer this man down.

[MoosyDoosy]

What do you think of iraonavp though? Moosy made other points besides the claim one.

Don't think you get away tho. How do

you

feel about the push?

[MoosyDoosy]

I reviewed his posts, saw they were scummy, and voted him a long time ago.

mMmmm...

[MoosyDoosy]

@_@ Please sheep me. I want to get a lynch off before I'm killed next night.

[MoosyDoosy]

Let's do some pseudo-VCA while I painstakingly reread! How likely is it that...

...CN was bussed?
...scum was setting up to bus CN but did not get a vote on the wagon?
...there's scum on FA's wagon?
...there's scum off both wagons?

Is it a 3 man scum team or 2 man?

[MoosyDoosy]

Hello friends. I'm trying to read all these pages. First impressions are that I don't like FA_Q2, dave looks town, and moosy is a troll.

hi vote iraonavp and sheep me because my name is Sonya

[MoosyDoosy]

So is it 3 scum team or 2 scum team?

Kill iraonavp !!

[MoosyDoosy]

Seeing as to how early game was me and hawkleader as primary suspicions and CN was pushing onto me, the other Mafia was likely on hawkleader. Which means that someone who gave me an early town read was likely the other Mafia. Just giving me an early town read makes no sense in the first place to be honest.

^^ So looking at the people that town read me, iraonavp looks worse.

That's literally my entire argument for voting him but it makes sense when you think about it.

[MoosyDoosy]

I also think the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch is interesting...I came into today thinking Metrion was the obvious candidate for a lynch and that we'd have to slow things down to prevent him from being instalynched, but so far I think it's just been me and ira? Like if Metrion is town I would think he would be a good target for scum to push as a mislynch, and if he were scum that would mean ira would likely be town and that would partially explain the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch -- because his partner is off pushing ira (or not voting for fear of being associated with a mislynch, as the case may be).

Idk it just makes a ton of sense to me still that Metrion would be scum. But this is part of what I want to look at -- if ira is scum, and everyone voting him right now is town (which I think is very possibly true), then what's his partner doing?

mMmm good point. Look at Metrion plzerino?

[MoosyDoosy]

The way e mentions Metrion in 572 with an understanding of who Metrion voted for (presumably e looked through Metrion's ISO for this, I'm not sure one would notice that simply from looking through vote counts), and then follows up with an implication that e read Metrion's ISO and got a new perspective on him in 590 bothers me more than perhaps it should.

Don't be absurd. Why would you think it's a new perspective? I thought it was rather obvious what happened but I'll point it out for you anyways. When I first arrived I had first impressions and skimmed a few people's isos including you, but nothing too thorough. Just to get some notion of the main events and the context for what's happening day 2. Later, before actually voting, I re-read things in more detail to see if I got the wrong feelings from my first impressions. But when it comes to scummiest there wasn't really a difficult choice. Okay maybe you would do things differently but don't pretend what I did was weird when it wasn't.

yeS so sheep me and vote iraonavp. TheCow should give reasoning for his vote too.

[MoosyDoosy]

THIS WAGON WILL HIT MAFIA BOYS LET'S GO

[MoosyDoosy]

aghaghagh this game is so slow. Like literally at this point it's semantics argument between FA_Q2 and iraonvap, ppl just talking random stuff, etc, etc.

Please speed things up and put iraonavp in L-1. iraonvap give a list of reads on everyone in thread and explain your scum reads only. Let's do this boi's.

[MoosyDoosy]

HURRY UP AND MAKE IT NIGHT SO I CAN DIE

[MoosyDoosy]

moosy did you just like slam back a whole pot of coffee or something

I am trying to like slam back a whole pot of coffee into this game. xddd

[MoosyDoosy]

Vote count 2.2

The state fair makes giant cinnamon rolls at one of the stands. They taste absolutely fantastic.

Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (0)
MoosyDoosy - (0)
toolenduso - (0)
TheCow - (0)
Metrion - (2) Toolenduso, Iraonavp
raskolnikov - (0)
iraonavp - (4) Syndesis, MoosyDoosy, davesaz, TheCow

(L-2)

Syndesis - (0)
davesaz - (1) Soapbar

Not voting: raskolnikov, Metrion, FA_Q2

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Day 2 ends: (expired on 2016-01-12 16:57:21)

someone vote on iraonavp and put him on L-1. gogogo let's make this game LIVE

[MoosyDoosy]

just vote iraonavp aghaghagh. Like srsly. Let's move ourselves. If iraonavp is L-1 and someone votes him, we kill that person. At this point i will srsly scum read those people that are not voting on him. Literally just take this fokin free town read.

If he flips scum, then his teammate should be relatively easy to sort out with VCA. If he flips town then same thing.

[MoosyDoosy]

METRION give a scum read and stick with it rather than throwing town reads out because that's scummy as all hell.

[MoosyDoosy]

I am completely okay with focusing on Metrion afterwards. Let's just focus on iraonavp and settle him.

[MoosyDoosy]

What else is going to happen that's likely to change things? Is there someone else you'd like to see pushed?

I want a list of reads from you mr. enigmatic

[MoosyDoosy]

toolenduso, Syndesis, MoosyDoosy

FA_Q2, raskolnikov, Soapbar, TheCow

Metrion
iraonavp

mMmmm ok ok

[MoosyDoosy]

THIS WAGON WILL HIT MAFIA BOYS LET'S GO

I seem to remember you having a similar confidence in hawkleader3 being scum-aligned, and he flipped town!

Sorry I'm busy. But can someone check whether iraonavp knew I was being sarcastic on hawkleader or not? ^^

[MoosyDoosy]

I am completely okay with focusing on Metrion afterwards. Let's just focus on iraonavp and settle him.

There has been plenty of focus on ira. Why are you in a hurry for L-1? You really want a claim that bad...

MOD: I think met is overdue for a prod - it has been 3 days

Because I'm Mafia! Makes me wonder what response you expected tbh.

THIS WAGON WILL HIT MAFIA BOYS LET'S GO

I seem to remember you having a similar confidence in hawkleader3 being scum-aligned, and he flipped town!

Sorry I'm busy. But can someone check whether iraonavp knew I was being sarcastic on hawkleader or not? ^^

Posts like these were clearly sarcastic:

bro I'm clearly scum that made a slip up trying to continue to push onto hawk which is why I'm trying to cover up for it with obstinateness. This is very clear right now.

hawk is right. D1 is an incredibly good time to deal with Moosy.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: MoosyDoosy

You're telling me that posts like these were not serious either?

I still kinda wanna lynch hawk tbh. Mainly because I want to see if he's scum or town.

Because it is definitely the absolute right move to kill hawk.

It appears my opinion of your playstyle has fallen to previously unknown depths.

After he claimed, hawkleader went straight off my radar and I never seriously considered killing him. P sure I made that obvious with my heavy sarcasm. Which makes it strange that iraonavp here is trying to make the argument that I was trying to get hawk killed after he claimed. mMmmm...

^^ Also, doesn't even matter if you think badly of my playstyle because I netted us ez D1 mafia lynch.

[MoosyDoosy]

Because I'm Mafia! Makes me wonder what response you expected tbh.

I expected an actual response. Guess I forgot who I was talking to.

^^ Also, doesn't even matter if you think badly of my playstyle because I netted us ez D1 mafia lynch.

You netted us an easy day one lynch?

lol, that's rich.

Why are you always so antagonistic mahn. If you're town you can try and help us out sson. ^^ Lighten up a bit bud. And actually, I did net us the easy Mafia read. I actually play like this quite often because one Mafia ends up on my wagon and it's always simple to sort the Mafia from the confused towns. CN was clearly Mafia from when he tried to soft push on me onwards. I can pinpoint how his defense afterwards came from a Mafia mindset too if you want.

Anyway, I'm curious about you. List of reads please?

[MoosyDoosy]

Oh yeh, realized I never answered why I wanted iraonavp at L-1 so badly. I mean, it's pretty obvious because I spammed like 10 posts in a row on it, but I want to progress the game state which is super slow right now and the best way to do that is to apply pressure at a L-1 gamestate to speed things up a bit. ^^ Go back and read my posts if you didn't see it the first time.

[MoosyDoosy]

Ira was the most vocal defender of CN. Metrion didn't stick out.

This is part of the reason I'm still pushing metrion instead of ira. It makes sense to me that a partner would try to stay out of the spotlight rather than vocally pushing against their partner's lynch. Scum don't want their partners to be lynched (unless it's a designed bus), but they also don't want to be super obviously associated with their partner if their partner does end up getting lynched.

Actually, this is a good point. ^^ Also less likely that ira will flip scum because CN was just a goon after all.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Metrion

claim???

[MoosyDoosy]

UNVOTE:
nvm don't want scum voting for ez ccred

[MoosyDoosy]

But yeah Metricon lynch is cool. And yeah I'm now aware that i replaced Moosy. I'm not scum btw.

If that didn't give you confidence in my reading skills, nothing else will!

loool lmao please continue to out ourselves as Mafia.

[MoosyDoosy]

Burning_Earth did you even see my post in our Mafia chat? Like please.

[MoosyDoosy]

I even gave you a roadmap of our night kill and blue read. Like come on sson. Not only that but I told you my plan was to confuse everyone with town looking spam that looks so scummy that no one can touch me and how me and CN set it up so that it looks like we bused each other.

[MoosyDoosy]

Flubbernugget replaces Metrion effective immediately. Please welcome them!

Hi Flubbernugget make a post so I can make you L-1 and force a claim from you.

[MoosyDoosy]

One scum if not both in TheCow/Burning_Earth, Metrion/Flubbernugget, and iraonavp lmao.

[MoosyDoosy]

Flubbernugget replaces Metrion effective immediately. Please welcome them!

Hi Flubbernugget make a post so I can make you L-1 and force a claim from you.

Why you need to wait for me to post makes no sense

If you wanted pressure you should have just put me at l1

So posture points there.

I tend not to read threads I replace into. Did I miss any claims or significant events?

Pedit I was about to snipe the shit out of that page top but once I saw the double bump I lost count

VOTE: Flubbernugget

[MoosyDoosy]

Vote count 2.4

April 10th is National Cinnamon Roll day. As that day approaches we can only wait in anticipation for the gooey center. The rich sweet icing that tantalizes even the strongest of heart. So enjoy.

Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (0)
MoosyDoosy - (0)
toolenduso - (0)
Burning_Earth - (0)
Flubbernugget - (4) Toolenduso, Iraonavp, raskolnikov, Davesaz

(L-2)

raskolnikov - (1) Syndesis
iraonavp - (3) MoosyDoosy, Burning_Earth, Flubbernugget

(L-3)

Syndesis - (0)
davesaz - (1) Soapbar

Not voting: FA_Q2

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Day 2 ends: (expired on 2016-01-12 16:57:21)

sson I believe I am unvoted but I am on Flubbernugget now so it no not matter.

[MoosyDoosy]

FA, which of the current wagons do you prefer?

Currently I like metslot more than ira. I do not like the complete lack of voting and soft pushing that he did. He replaced out before giving us any real reaction on this as well and that does not sit well with me. However - flubber points out something that I missed:

I haven't voted Moosy yet because I haven't had a chance to ISO anyone and look in depth at my reads, they're very surface level. But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

Infact if he flips scum I'm sure someone (you) is going to argue I was bussing. Kinda screwed either way.

He's scummy and it's not his play style that I take issue with.

I think Moosy is probably scum due to this.

Also if I say something dumb, sorry. I'm reading very piecemeal because reading 30 pages straight up is boring also this iPad has no charge.

And moosey dodged the shit out of this. The same way he has dogged everything and given complete non answers to any suspicion on him. I don't like the idea of giving him a pass because he refuses to engage.
VOTE: moosey

Flubber is my second choice at this point.

I would actually support this lynch a lot but it's past D1 and I want to find out Metrion's or iraonavp's alignment to actually solve the game.

[MoosyDoosy]

Flubber, would you like to give us more input?

In the case of no, would anyone else like to hammer him?

[MoosyDoosy]

Why does that Cn post make moosy look like scum? I read it as the opposite, Cn was assuming moosy would flip town. Besides wasn't moosy like the only person Cn actually went after on d1?

Flubber: open my ISO and ctrl+f "holy crap" to find my reasoning for voting metrion.

^^ That was one of the posts that mad CN scum because he was implying the whole time in it that I was flipping town which only makes sense when you know people's alignments as scum. It's also why Earth/TheCow slot rose like 3 slots in my scum list.

[MoosyDoosy]

hammer?

[MoosyDoosy]

Just kind of waiting for the lynch to happen over here, and for people (B_E specifically, since he just replaced in) to get thoughts in before the end of the day. So I'll give some thoughts while waiting for stuff to happen.

I'm a little worried about Flubber's whole "hey guys I'm hinting that I'm a PR! but actually I'm not tho" thing. Wondered at first why scum wouldn't just claim a PR knowing that they would get lynched. But there are a few other things to consider:

-It's very, very likely Flubber is telling the truth when he says he didn't read the whole game. Town or scum, why read the whole game if deadline is approaching and you're the leading wagon?
-We don't know whether scum have day chat. So it's very possible a partner could have influenced Flubber's decision without town knowing, which could explain the turnaround on claiming a PR.
-It would also make sense from a scumFlubber perspective if he, his partner or both decided that it would just be better for the partner to bus Flubber for the cred.
-Could be giving up. Sucks to replace into a scum role that's headed for the noose close to deadline. VT claim/lack of reads doesn't give town info to find last partner.

ya gotta admit most of this is just conf bias. If this lynch goes down and I die, I still think town is in a decent-ish spot to move on.

[MoosyDoosy]

AYEE IT'S DONE

[MoosyDoosy]

let us see the fliP

[MoosyDoosy]

Do you know I want to push onto you iraonavp?

[MoosyDoosy]

VOTE: MoosyDoosy

[MoosyDoosy]

I'm having a hard time with the associations because I wasn't there for the CN wagon and I'm not sure I can judge it as well as you guys have. I know I didn't like TheCow but his replacement isn't here yet, and you guys are confusing to me. OK dave went on CN's wagon instead of the counterwagon, I've done this as scum before. FA_Q2 went hard for CN so he's prob town but I don't get a town vibe from his posts. I know there's 2 scum and assuming TheCow(slot) is 1 of them I don't see anyone obvious as the other one.

iraonavp
MoosyDoosy

Syndesis
FA_Q2

(almost all of this is from him wagoning CN d1)

Soapbar

davesaz

Burning_Earth (TheCow slot)

I'm sort of lost right now and just want to sheep my townread in iraon. I really hope I'm not just being fooled by charisma or something in my read on him.

What makes dave tempting is his play day 2 flip flopping, at some point his read just got far worse on metrion when he was wagoned, despite him being afk and so there wasn't new information to justify such a change. Minor note is I haven't seen him vote or try to get scumhunt so far today either (d3), though it is a minor tell i have seen town even in these situations wait back a bit for more info before deciding.

Looking back soapbar's kind of similar minus the waffling. He was very apathetic day 2 and I feel like here too he's sort of complacent. I guess he was afk but he just sat on his dave vote which was clearly not going anywhere at the time and he barely interacted with the other events. He like dave also as a small positive went on CN instead of the viable FA_Q2 wagon, and again I don't know how much credit to give them for it. I know for example my slot was on the wrong wagon at that point so I don't want to weigh whether someone joined the CN wagon around halfway/past or if they didn't for too much.

I haven't ISO'd syndesis but from the time I've been here I like his posts and even his effort/methodology on his wagon on me despite it being wrong. He'd be even better but idk why he townreads dave and doesn't like soap. A tiny bit of him not liking soap seems to even be because soap doesn't like dave which is a weird reason to not like soap for. Now that I think about it if we get dave and he flips scum syn will be worse off, I'd personally still rather go for TheCow(slot) than dave if the guy was here though.

why is iraonavp hard town?

[MoosyDoosy]

moosey likely town but dear god I hope they get force replaced.

I'm still here !!

[MoosyDoosy]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: iraonavp

I'm still all on board with this to be honest.

[MoosyDoosy]

@Thestatusquo, what do you think of dave's mechanical posting in general? Town or scum?

[MoosyDoosy]

I don't get all the Cow hate TBH.

same tbh. I'd prefer an iraonavp lynch. You sound like a tone read / gut feel type of player. Exactly like me.

[MoosyDoosy]

-.- apologies to RadiantCowBells for putting him in a bad position with my play. tbh I like playing that way though. Glad to see the majority of my reads were correct but a pity that town as a whole didn't act together to get progressive lynches.

[MoosyDoosy]

But why did we not lynch iraonavp when he was 100% the lynch....

Also realize it's my b to get up to 3 pokes but @_@ forcing activity when the course of action is obvious is a bit eh

[MoosyDoosy]

XD that awkward moment when you leap of faith townread FA_Q2 correctly and he doesn't even read your neighborizer QT. Then he goes on to enter the thread saying you need to die.

[MoosyDoosy]

Also, it was 100% the correct play to hide the rest of my abilities and I'm glad Radiant continued with it. ^^