Mini 1782 Game Over

[a plain farmer]

You can try, but the games he's been in so far show Kain to be adept at slipping out of the noose.

[a plain farmer]

can we policy lynch kaintepes?

Well, clearly we CAN, the question is whether we SHOULD. Or whether it'd just be fun to do for the lulz I guess

Thanks, coach.

pre-vote smith

Come, sheeple.

Good idea.

pre-vote mhsmith0

Let's get him all the way up to L+5.

[a plain farmer]

No, RC, Jake is obvtown.

2. No provable randomness! This especially includes dice tags!

Guess it's to... roll the dice

Yet another reason why this needs pre-rope.

That doesn't count!
~Ircher

[a plain farmer]

Shaddowez is hard-defending and RC's scrambling to put up a pre-counterwagon.

Looks like we've got our scum team, fellas.

[a plain farmer]

But you're hard-defending.

Are you referring to 16? All I was saying there is that you can try to PL Kain, but he might deflect it like a blaster bolt off a lightsabre.

@Plain farmer, how old are you if you don't mind me asking. Trying to put things in perspective.

Twice as old as Kain, apparently. Does this help?

[a plain farmer]

Clumsy, I feel that your name should have a 'b' in it.

You can follow the wise precedent set by such words as "bomb" and "crumb".

It's probably not too late to create an account called Clumbsy.

[a plain farmer]

Only to the extent that shaddowez was absolutely going to the mat for his bud, smith.

[a plain farmer]

Did anyone else read RC's 62 as him faking a town-slip?

[a plain farmer]

@mhsmith: Thanks for the input.

pre-unvote:

Did anyone else read RC's 62 as him faking a town-slip?

Anyone else?

[a plain farmer]

The confusion between FA and RC is weird. I didn't know what RC was talking about because scum know each other. It's a strange interaction anyway.

Do you think it's weird in any alignment-indicative way?

[a plain farmer]

I'm saying that being way too certain about reads is a scumtell and if they're not scum they're not people you want to have around.

In this instance I think that APF is scum.

And you're uncertain? Did you read the mhsmith case as articulated by Lowell and I?

[a plain farmer]

Probably something about coaching. I'll let Lowell explain it.

[a plain farmer]

I find it weird how Roshar basically regurgitated my points and is calling me scum.

Which points did I regurgitate?

And wow there, there's still the option that you were noobish. Why jump to scum so quickly?

Hold on a sec. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assume these posts refer to this, since it was the only thing Roshar said about RC:

Did you read it is as genuine or fake excitement when RC thought frozen slipped?

in which case:

RC: Why'd you interpret this as Roshar scumreading you?

Roshar: Why'd you not point out the disconnect in RC thinking you scumread him for that, and instead seem to imply that RC's behavior around FA's "slip" could only come from noob or scum?

[a plain farmer]

Re: RC's "townslip" in 62:

When I first read it, I thought RC was saying that FA had slipped by wondering if RC was one of her buddies. This would've been a fake town-slip because the underlying assumption would have been that the scum PT had probably already been created. But no, on further reflection I see what RC was saying and don't think it's a town-slip, fake or not.

@APF: Absolutly. Also, RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain.

Apf, nos, clumsy: is there a reason why you thought this post was serious?

I was just interested in the "absolutely" and deferred judgment on the rest.

[a plain farmer]

I was (erroneously) thinking that by "As in she's suspicious that I'm her buddy", RC was accusing you of actually slipping that you were wondering if he was your scumbuddy due to the scum PT not having been opened yet (when, I would have thought, the PT would have been open).

It was late when I was reading that, and it's even later now. I gotta get some sleep.

[a plain farmer]

It's OK. In a game where people are supposed to be paranoid about other people, people will be paranoid about other people (especially for BS reasons, that's why it's paranoia).

[a plain farmer]

The only difference between now and how the game will be once it's been started is that you can't cast a real vote. Everyone already knows their roles.

BTW: congrats on your Scummie, RC. I hope this isn't a game in which we end up seeing firsthand why you won it.

[a plain farmer]

I hoped to not have to go back to this, but
VOTE: mhsmith

On Roshar: The scumreads on him seem to be based on him having exhibited X, Y, and Z behaviors that are disproportionately seen in scum. This is certainly not negligible, but his instantiations of these behaviors so far seem like they could come from town. On the whole, I view him as a null.


Also, here's a thing. Come see how good or bad of a person you are:

{Maverick, FA}
{RC, Froot Loop, Lowell}
{Roshar} {Jake, KainTepes, Nos, shaddowez}
{Clumsy}
{mhsmith}

[a plain farmer]

For those who like guessing, I didn't want to deny them the thrill.

But I'm voting you because 50, 138, and 139 seem to me like moments where there was an opportunity to take a stance, but instead we got you setting up a potential future stance.

[a plain farmer]

- "I thought I'd find you here. There wont be any page topping where you're going."

[a plain farmer]

When you play the game of page tops, you win or you die.

Dawn-vig: Maverick

[a plain farmer]

I don't know. I haven't yet read all the stuff that happened after I voted him. If the reasoning I provided in 218 still holds true, and if mhsmith's scumminess hasn't been surpassed by that of someone else, then there my vote will remain.

[a plain farmer]

Sry for referring to you as a "him" a few times, Rosh

APF's explanation of RC's "fake-townslip" in 142 and 144 are non-sensical (at least to me). It feels like he was trying to get traction early on, and when that failed backpedaled to justify himself.

Even thought I no longer agree with it, it does make sense. If there's any interest, I could go over it point-by-point.


The following post was the one that pinged me the most over the last 7-8 pages:

Your pre-vote against Roshar seems to have some substance, but that was a Page 2 vote.

Lowell's vote in 126 makes absolutely no sense to me, as I'm not sure where Roshar is not "holding it together". Does this make Lowell scummy to me? No, because he may have reasons that I just don't understand.

RC wants to pressure him in 189. That's not reason in and of itself, I want to know why RC wants to pressure him. I also don't see where Roshar calls RC scum like he accuses.

Any reason you didn't question Maverick on 163 when he does the same thing I did here, and never got any responses?

It seems lazy to me (but not "super chainsawy" as RC had asked). Lowell's vote was an admitted gutread, RC had given reasons for scumreading Roshar in 176, and, as FA pointed out, this doesn't address Maverick's 150.

I can think of both town-motivated (well, not town-motivated, but rather town-compatible) and scum-motivated reasons for it having been thrown together like this. Town-wise, shad was being pushed on this position and sometimes people will try and put up a face-saving defense even if the position is weak. Scum-wise, it could still be seen as something like that, but also as a bit of cover for something he might've been worried would suggest an informed perspective.

Mhsmith's posts since the day has began have been OK. I'm not a huge fan of his vote on Jake or even his withdrawal of it, but my first instinct is to say that his line of thinking has been coming from a town perspective. Are his prior transgressions still enough to warrant my first real vote? mmmmmm......no. No they're not.

VOTE: shaddowez

I'm also sympathetic to the Clumsy wagon.

[a plain farmer]

@Maverick:

I know this is old news by now, but bear with me. You gave RC a little bit of a towniness bump for the honesty in this post:

Yeah, but there's never really a good reason to townread me.
I mean even the kind of emotionally manipulative shit I shy away from now I pulled out in the VLG game.
So yeah, I lie about reasons that people should townread me. Would it be more helpful if I told the truth and just said 'nah whatever I've done so far I could've done as scum'?

I do what it takes to get correctly townread, and if that means fudging truths then so be it.

Is there a reason for which RC would be honest about this as town that he wouldn't be as scum?

[a plain farmer]

@RC:

I think that FA would be more inclinced to write me off as town here, especially since she's getting scumread for her indecisiveness.

FA isn't writing you off as town though, so does that tell you anything?

[a plain farmer]

@The best, most kindest player in this game:

scum!Lowell

I see this kind of notation frequently on this site. Could you tell me why the exclamation mark is used here? Obviously the whole expression means to refer to Lowell in the past when he's been aligned with scum, or Lowell in this game under the hypothetical that he is a aligned with scum. But why an exclamation mark, and not, say, a hyphen?

[a plain farmer]

Good luck, FA

It means explicitly Lowell in this game as scum.

OK, so local to this game. Thx.

I really, really want to powerlynch APF atm if it weren't for the fact that I wanted to in 1757 and he was town.

Although I like the concept of powerlynching. It makes it sound like we're adding hydraulics to our gallows.

[a plain farmer]

I'll respond to RC and comment on other things if there's time, otherwise hopefully I can get back to this tonight.

Spoiler: Self-meta crap

Like all your posts are so fucking distant and neutral toned, you spend 99% of your time IIOAing, the questions you ask have obvious answers, you waffled like hell and still voted Shadowwez, like wtf.

I wish we had a PT, because it seems we could use a venue to hash out our communication styles.

On the distant and neutral tone: sorry, I guess? Part of it is probably just my default way of writing as opposed to speaking. Part of it is because I prefer distant and neutral to belligerent. But also part of it is sometimes intentional. Instead of asking "Do you think you're fooling anyone with X?" I might ask "Why are you saying X?", since the latter allows the respondent's reads of you to provide their own context, which in theory makes it more informative. I'm also just a weird person. I really am amused by "powerlynching", and I do think that Clumsy's name would be Clumbsy in an ideal world.

IIOA: I don't think I do it quite that much. :/

Questions having obvious answers: Maybe. I don't always ask questions because I don't know the answer, though.

Waffling: Eh, I'm sure you've nailed scum with this in the past, and I don't know how I'd be as scum until I am scum, but I think this is NAI for me.

What's your actual read on me? Why?

WARNING: What follows is the actual read.

(sorry about the distant tone that just added )

I'm seeing you as an upper-town-lean right now.

I specifically recall 264 suggesting town to me due to the way it invited sortable statements. Also, specifically your first scumread of me pinged my gut as town: the timing of 43 combined with its further articulation in 52. I wasn't comfortable in your towniness because I was slightly pinged by 168 and 221. I think there were other posts that pinged me as either town or scum but I don't have the time to look for them now and they probably weren't that important if I can't remember them.

Your 412 and 416 though lift you from a barely town-lean to a high town-lean, since I gather from it that you're unsure if you're reading me correctly.

[a plain farmer]

mhsmith's disengage from his bout with Jake in 498 and 500 feels awkward to me in a bad way. His "Is this a theory that you typically advocate as town?" strikes me as a way to sneakily tar someone as scum under the guise of an inquiry. I also felt what FA said here:

I felt you don't beleive what your writing. you were just trying to repeat , put together , make a case on him and gather votes but your tone was like your trying to show its not what I'm saying like you wanna distance yourself from the push.

I'd like to know what his read on Jake is.


Jake comes out looking better, but not entirely unbloodied. His stated reasons for having voted RC shift a bit:

427: He's useless as town and dangerous as scum, so let's get rid of him.

448: "there is an indication I am looking for scum. I placed a vote on somebody I think is scum and said my vote was serious." The new thing is "I placed a vote on somebody I think is scum"

460: Unpacking this one:
- He placed the vote on RC because that was what he'd thought he'd be doing upon signing up.
- But the posts Jake "did happen to read" of RC's made him think he was scum. This implies that he had viewed RC as scum, for reasons independent of his "useless as town, dangerous as scum" logic, as far back as the casting of his vote in 340. Yet these seemingly more pertinent reasons did not show any evidence of themselves until 427?

What's going on here, Jake? And why/how do you differentiate the mhsmith you've seen here from a particularly argumentative town!mhsmith?

[a plain farmer]

Jake is town, farmer is town. I'm back up to 'meh' on smith.

VOTE: nos

I like this idea. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... something something... you DONT GET FOOLED AGAIN.

I'd also be up for a lurker hunt, if we have the time for it. Frankly I don't have a lot of bad vibes from anyone yet, so I'm clearly missing something. Either I'm wrong (impossible!) or one or more of the lurkers is scum.

Where did this vote come from? Your invocation of that Texas proverb would indicate that this isn't your first run-in with Nos.

[a plain farmer]

I'm also sympathetic to the Clumsy wagon.

Can you explain this? This is literally the fourth time you mention Clumsy in your ISO, and only one of them has anything to do with a read (which is useless anyway, since it's in your ordered reads list that has no info in it).

It's mostly a gut read right now, combined with a general absence of towniness in his posts.

You have almost no original content to speak of, and you're just comfortable voting for anyone that's getting attention.

This is about me, right? It seems that way, since it seems like that whole post was about me, but it feels like you drew these accusations from a hat.

The interactions between FA and RC have me on edge, and continue to do so. I don't think they're

both

scum, but wouldn't be surprised if one of them flips red. There's stuff I don't like from both of them, so I'd rather wait to vote there until I'm more sure.

Am I wrong in concluding after reading this bit that you think it unlikely they are both town?

[a plain farmer]

@Clumsy:

What's your objective right now? Do you have any reads besides Maverick as town?

[a plain farmer]

@Frozen Angel:

RC said this about you a while back:

Read scumread as attacked, FA!scum doesn't like being attacked. she omguses and changes her views and stuff.

Then you had this exchange with Jake:

Pregame you seemed to not like shadow and roshar and wanted more from nos. game starts you vote nos for him making a mountain out of a molehill or something like that.

If you were using pregame after the game started, I would think you would have voted one of the people you were suspicious of and not the one you needed more from. Just my opinion though.

oh and fyi, stop accusing people of being defensive like it actually means something. It doesn't. Town and scum both can be defensive.

They can but your reaction / I don't care about getting lynched and your sudden hippocratic push on me "becuase I didn't start the day phase voting the same persons I called scum in pregame" is scummy as shit

actually

VOTE: Jake

(There were other posts to it on pages 23-25, but I didn't want to bloat this post with them and the ones I quoted suffice to summarize the relevance to the RC quote)

This seems to fit what RC said about your scumgame. We have the "attack", the change of views (since you previously seemed to be townreading Jake from what I could tell based on 428), and the omgus.

Is what RC said wrong? Is what RC said true, but not applicable here for some reason? (Or is it true, applicable, and a scumtell? )

RC, feel free to weigh in too if you have any thoughts.

[a plain farmer]

Wrt jake, I find myself ever more frustrated with trying to get him to open up at all. It feels like pulling teeth and it really shouldn't. I owe him a meta dive (not ASAP but def. by this weekend) to see if he's always super closed, if he often jumps in with "ok I found the scum guys" type posts representing theories he hasn't fully thought through or came down on one side and just ignored other plausible explanations. But my gut is saying that I'll probably see similar behavior from him in either alignment, and that he's just going to live perpetually in the null zone by choice, because that's where he wants to be.

It's the sort of behavior that IMO makes the game less pleasant, regardless of his alignment. And there's a post game rant that I'll probably go on about why I dislike this behavior so much. But if you want me to give you a strong alignment read on him, I can't. Maybe he'll start to open up and let him be read one way or the other. I hope he does. But I suspect he won't, and that further efforts to get much out of him are likely to be fruitless. Maybe I'll change my mind on that going forward, or maybe someone else will do a better job getting something substantive out of him. But at least right now, I don't know what to make of his alignment, and I'm not optimistic that I'll get much of a better read any time soon. Sorry for not being able to give you a better or more definitive answer, but that's where I am on him right now.

Alright, so null. Let me know if today's events moved the needle at all.

For my part, I have a town-lean on Jake and don't think we should lynch him. I had a bad feeling about some of the things he said. But most of the arguments against him are based on NAI playstyle issues. There was someone saying something to the effect that he didn't have a case on mhsmith. It's true that he doesn't have a comprehensive 'The Case on Mhsmith' post, but it's not hard to glean from what he's written that he sees mhsmith as having been non-genuine on specific instances. Then there's Maverick's points against him, which I may summarize as follows:

1) Jake said the people pressuring mhsmith were pressuring him so that he'd remove his vote (but Jake didn't say this. He was saying that mhsmith got pressured in general, so then removed his vote in hopes that it would reduce the heat on him).
2) Jake isn't trying to convince town to lynch his scumread (but he did say why he thought mhsmith was scum, and the degree of subsequent politicking one does for it is a playstyle thing).
3) Jake was angling for towncred (this might be in the eye of the beholder. I didn't really interpret anything he said like this).

[a plain farmer]

Calling that omgus is sick.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=64645

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65639

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=64492

And thats not a scum tell of me. I do reevaluate my reads however I want to.

Alright, I'll consider this. But I'm not going to read 400 pages of stuff. Do you recall where I should look in these three games?

[a plain farmer]

Thanks.

I'll look at these when I have time.

[a plain farmer]

You have almost no original content to speak of, and you're just comfortable voting for anyone that's getting attention.

This is about me, right? It seems that way, since it seems like that whole post was about me, but it feels like you drew these accusations from a hat.

It was about you. Are you denying that what I said is correct? If so, please point me to content that proves so.

"I have an idea! I'll pick two random accusations, then pick a random person at which to level them. Then, when he complains about it, I'll ask him to prove why he's not doing that!"

Fuck it before I replace

PK is conftown for the way the mods dealt with the replacement.
Nosferatu I've been going off on but (s)he's town.

Jeanne is town as well.

Don't lynch any of those people ever this game.

Shadow is still my major scumread.

GL

(emphasis mine) Was RC actually meaning Jeanne here? The KainTepes/Jeanne ISO is a combined 9 posts long, and I don't see anything alignment-indicative enough to warrant this.

[a plain farmer]

Sure thing. Do you have any experience with Nos or Lowell? Those are the two slots that I'm finding it most difficult to formulate an opinion on.

[a plain farmer]

Also, and this is a bit of a heavy question so feel free to take your time or just leave it as something to think about, but how do you feel about the pushes on Jake by mhsmith, Maverick, and FA?

[a plain farmer]

The way I interpreted the early game, there was a lot of aggressive town-arguing going on between {Radiant Cowbells-Frozen Angel-Roshar} and then later with {Jake-Frozen Angel.}
I would focus on the people skirting around the arguments, trying not to get involved as I would think the scum players would really want to avoid getting dragged in to arguments.

I like this.

I am in a cage and the key is thrown away
Gently do the winds in the trees sway.

VOTE: Jake

Because he just is. I will always chase tunnelers as tunnelers will always be scum to me.

one last thing, this vote was crap and kinda scummy.

I also like this.

Except for a certain thing in 937 that I don't much like, I feel that Max has been saying wise things so far.

[a plain farmer]

@pk: what do you mean by "floating around" with regard to RC?

What are the cases on the two major wagons.

I'll let someone who scumreads the Jake/Max slot explain that case. But with Clumsy, it's basically that he hasn't been trying to figure out the game (also, his posts make me feel like he doesn't have a stake in figuring out the game), and he's also been laying low. A running theme of his posts is Information Instead Of Analysis, which is probably overrated as a scumtell, but with what Clumsy's shown so far it seems a particularly appropriate tell to use.

Posts from his ISO that pinged me:

34 - Musings on PLing Kain and the number of scum we can expect in the game.

132 - Discards an easy opportunity to probe Lowell and instead just chalks it up to egotism.

305 - Says he plans to ISO Rosh and I. Admittedly, we can't know for sure that he didn't follow through.

561 - I'll give him some credit for questioning Rosh here, even though it was kind of a layup. But the rest of the post feels like he wants to be heard saying stuff.

573 - Says stuff about how Jake should play, but not really anything to discern Jake's alignment or what Jake thinks the alignments of others are.

892...910 - Premature talk about when we should hammer.

932, 935 - Advancing the position that the mod's actions are not alignment indicative (I concur with him, but he seems to be taking great pains to present IIOA).

949 - I might be reaching here, but I get a feeling of "Look at me, I'm so town!" feeling from the way he makes sure we know he's putting the interests of the town ahead of his own survival.

[a plain farmer]

@ Maverick: so it wasn't the slot you didn't like, but the player (referring to Jake). That's understandable. But were you able to salvage anything alignment indicative from the slot?


@ Nos:

I only analyze the posts of my scum reads when I have one, and I tonally read everyone else.

Which of these levels are you at with mhsmith? (or are you still leaning scum on him)


And I realize I'm scumreading Clumsy more than shaddow now.
VOTE: Clumsy

[a plain farmer]

And I realize I'm scumreading Clumsy more than shaddow now.
VOTE: Clumsy

Could you explain why exactly? I can understand, because of my inactivity and the fact that others are thinking the same as you, but I'm wary of the runner up wagon jumping onto the leading wagon.

Because of the stuff I said in 964.

@ Nos:

I only analyze the posts of my scum reads when I have one, and I tonally read everyone else.

Which of these levels are you at with mhsmith? (or are you still leaning scum on him)

I'm ignoring him atm

Alright. I'd recommend against consciously ignoring people, but there's been enough debating of playstyles in this thread.

Do you have any thoughts on Clumsy or his wagon?

-_- If you would care to look at my game history, I only have 2 completed games here. Both of them Newbie games. 9 players, 2 scum. Haven't been in a 12 person game. I thought there would be 3 scum, but I wanted to make sure so I didn't have any errors in logic. The fact that you think it's a ham handed fake townslip is one of the more egotistical things I've seen in a while. Which is saying something.

I read this as a firm response to Lowell saying he faked a townslip. But APF thinks he missed an opportunity to question Lowell further (post 964)

It was more than just that he missed the opportunity. It's that he posits it as a result of egotism. That seems like an extremely improbable reaction to what Lowell actually said. Normally, when a town player reacts indignantly like this, they'll say something like "That's either the most egotistical thing I've seen in a while, or you're scum." But Clumsy didn't add that part to his accusation, and didn't ask about anything in any way that would make me think he thought about Lowell's alignment.

At first, I had the impression that Maverick was just vote hopping to whatever looked good repeatedly. Going with the flow. After going back and ISOing though, it's not true. Decent vibes from this so far. Lean town.

Town read on Maverick.

@APF - you interpreted these as empty words in post 964?

It felt like scum feeling easy about handing out a townread because of prior knowledge of what everyone's alignment is. Specifically, the way he said how his reads had progressed, despite there not actually having been evidence of such a progression.

[a plain farmer]

I'm back. I still think Clumsy looks like the best lynch we could do. His posts the past few days provide more in the way of content, but, as pisskop said (bye pk ) it's been "mechanical" (or perhaps it'd be better to say it's rote). So on the whole I don't see them as alignment indicative.

Nos has been hard to read. I don't have any experience with her so I can't say whether her reported self-meta is accurate. I don't think she's a good lynch today.

[a plain farmer]

@

Nosferatu,

(mhs and APF too if you can) what's your read on Max and him advocating Huntress for the lynch in 1077 (her only post with game content at the time of the scum read was 971 and Jeanne's 857 and 863) and then his subsequent vote on her a couple pages later? Last I remember you were giving Jake a town read (and he gave you a town read as well). I should add Max found Jeane suspicious in 939.


Just realized his post 1077 he didn't bother voting for either lynch candidates. Much conviction.

I was also pinged by Jeanne's vote on Jake. I do believe her when she said she doesn't like tunnelers, but I don't think Jake had really been tunneling at the time. So one way to make sense of that post is to see it as scum pushing through a lynch using one's established preferences as cover. So of course I also buy Max's scumread of the slot as legitimate.

Anybody wanna humor me with the short version of this game?

In the beginning, there was an extended pregame in which there was some horseplay and I think Rosh was the most prevalent scumread.

Then the game started, and activity revolved around these 1v1s for a while:
Mhsmith vs Nos
Mhsmith vs Jake (now Max)
Maverick (now FA_Q2) vs Jake
Jake vs FA (now you)

That last one got toxic and a bunch of people were replaced and the activity has slowed down. Jake was the first big wagon, and now the second is Clumsy. For more on Clumsy's scumminess, look at the posts Froot linked to in 1153, especially 964.

[a plain farmer]

Looking at the situation of this game, I'm confident the town will end up with a Clumsy caucus in the coming hours. Shaddow's a former Clumsy voter, Nos townreads Max, and Max himself I'd expect will also vote Clumsy if needed in a deadline rush. So let's make it official, shall we?

I was also pinged by Jeanne's vote on Jake. I do believe her when she said she doesn't like tunnelers, but I don't think Jake had really been tunneling at the time. So one way to make sense of that post is to see it as scum pushing through a lynch using one's established preferences as cover. So of course

I also buy Max's scumread of the slot as legitimate.

(my bold)

@APF - can you explain what you mean by 'legitimate'?

I mean that it doesn't look like a read that a scum just fudged for whatever purpose. I see where he's coming from, so if he's giving that read as scum, he's at least doing it in a way that accurately emulates what a townie might be thinking.

[a plain farmer]

And Johnny, you should vote for Clumsy. Here's why:

What are the cases on the two major wagons.

I'll let someone who scumreads the Jake/Max slot explain that case. But with Clumsy, it's basically that he hasn't been trying to figure out the game (also, his posts make me feel like he doesn't have a stake in figuring out the game), and he's also been laying low. A running theme of his posts is Information Instead Of Analysis, which is probably overrated as a scumtell, but with what Clumsy's shown so far it seems a particularly appropriate tell to use.

Posts from his ISO that pinged me:

34 - Musings on PLing Kain and the number of scum we can expect in the game.

132 - Discards an easy opportunity to probe Lowell and instead just chalks it up to egotism.

305 - Says he plans to ISO Rosh and I. Admittedly, we can't know for sure that he didn't follow through.

561 - I'll give him some credit for questioning Rosh here, even though it was kind of a layup. But the rest of the post feels like he wants to be heard saying stuff.

573 - Says stuff about how Jake should play, but not really anything to discern Jake's alignment or what Jake thinks the alignments of others are.

892...910 - Premature talk about when we should hammer.

932, 935 - Advancing the position that the mod's actions are not alignment indicative (I concur with him, but he seems to be taking great pains to present IIOA).

949 - I might be reaching here, but I get a feeling of "Look at me, I'm so town!" feeling from the way he makes sure we know he's putting the interests of the town ahead of his own survival.

[a plain farmer]

So why's Max scum? His slot hasn't pinged me much at all so far.

[a plain farmer]

I'm sorry about my absence in this game. I'm going to try to get back to this thread more often. Regarding the reasons for voting Max that Froot pointed me towards (1276), the only one that strikes me as possibly scummy is #1.

My lynchpool right now is {mhsmith, huntress, shaddow, Lowell}, and I'm feeling like voting that last one atm.

VOTE: Lowell

[a plain farmer]

Also, all votes on my are opportunistic as hell. There's the scum trying to score an easy mislynch type, and there's the townie "well, I don't know wtf is happening but at least if I vote Lowell I'll be able to hem and haw afterwards about how unhelpful he was and I won't take the blame." Make sure if you're voting me you're the first type-- I'll take care of them.

Well, one way to make sure people can't hem and haw about how unhelpful you are is to be helpful.

I'll point out in case anyone missed it that D2 is going to be shorter than D1. We have just under 6 days left.

@Johnny: When you complained about Froot, Titus, Fack, and Max in 1292, was any of what you pointed out alignment indicative, or were you just annoyed by them?

@Fack: Is the Johnny vote because of the "threatening"? And is it really worse in your eyes than what you saw Titus doing?

@Mhsmith: Regarding players still in the game, the only read of yours that I recall is a little bit of suspicion towards Rosh, so is that your main scumread (or do you have other scumreads)? Also, how do you feel about Max?

[a plain farmer]

I'm not comfortable with the Lowell vote anymore. Faq's climb on it strikes me as suspicious in an opportunistic way.

VOTE: FA_Q2

I'm still interested in the answer to this question, btw, even though he seems to have moved on:

@Fack: Is the Johnny vote because of the "threatening"? And is it really worse in your eyes than what you saw Titus doing?

[a plain farmer]

Faq's 1395 seems rather fabricated to me, and trying to snowball a wagon would be a something I'd expect from scum at this time of day. Lowell was right when he suggested his general unhelpfulness up to this point makes him the easy wagon to jump on, so his would be a good choice for scum looking to make one of the wagons the frontrunner.

[a plain farmer]

I'll try to comment on some other things tomorrow, but for now I'll address a couple things directed to me:

Faq's 1395 seems rather fabricated to me, and trying to snowball a wagon would be a something I'd expect from scum at this time of day. Lowell was right when he suggested his general unhelpfulness up to this point makes him the easy wagon to jump on, so his would be a good choice for scum looking to make one of the wagons the frontrunner.

What is about FAQ's post which makes you think it was fabricated?

The way FAQ contends that Lowell is scummy is rather implicit and oblique. "Why go there and ignore Rosh's push back?" and "This statement really does not make sense." are things he could say to let readers piece together in their own minds why Lowell is scum, giving FAQ the benefit of the doubt, and allowing him to say that he's town and he was merely a little bit lazy with that post.

Then consider the circumstances: the day is winding down, his vote made Lowell the largest wagon, and Lowell is a rather easy vote at the moment. It reeks to me of subtly trying to direct the town towards a mislynch.

0The interesting thing about this statement (and your vote) is that applies equally to what you just pulled. Further, you avoided anything I have actually stated, utterly ignored the case I put forth and essentially said I am scum because I voted loewll. Not even a question or a challenge for me to answer.

Very poor vote :/

I did leave you a thing to chew on:

I'm still interested in the answer to this question, btw, even though he seems to have moved on:

@Fack: Is the Johnny vote because of the "threatening"? And is it really worse in your eyes than what you saw Titus doing?

[a plain farmer]

I looked at Rosh and Max over the last few pages. Regarding Rosh and Froot's neighbor debate, I don't see anything alignment indicative about the actual positions they advance (I suppose Rosh's may be a little more convenient for scum, but it's negligible). It mostly reinforced my townread on Rosh.

Regarding Max, if he's flailing scum, then it certainly isn't obvious. I don't see anything he's done that's looked like it was more likely to have come from scum than town. The argument against Max seems to be:
1) He's pushing easy wagons.
2) His NKA is objectionable.
3) He engaged in frivolous doubtcasting.

I didn't feel inclined to agree with any of those upon my re-read.
1) The easy wagons he's pushed were easy for a reason (and his boarding of them didn't strike me as opportunistic). He voted Lowell because of his NKA (more on that in point 2). His vote on Huntress (even though the reason given in 1408 isn't the most compelling) was a result of what has been a continuous scumread of his since D1.
2) I don't think the Nos kill is damning for Lowell, but Nos didn't have many reads and Lowell was her most unambiguous scumread. It shouldn't have been terribly controversial then for Max to have advanced this hypothesis that the scum killed someone that was locked in on him.
3) This is specifically referring to Titus's 1289. I'd point out here that Max wasn't really doubtcasting 3-4 slots, but rather two (Lowell and Huntress), and was only disagreeing with two more (Johnny and Froot) who had posted things about him. And, as I said above, I don't see reason to think Max's scumread of Lowell and Huntress is scummy.

[a plain farmer]

My reaction to jake vs frozen? You mean my lack of one? I posed some questions to Jake and FA, but I didn't get any reads from their actual 1v1. And my scumread on Clumsy D1 was initially a gut read. It kept getting stronger, though, and I posted with that case on him after I looked back through the game to figure out in concrete terms what my gut didn't like about him.

I of course oppose lynching Max, but at L-1 with two people giving intent to hammer, it looks like he's pretty much dead. I'll swap out mhsmith with FAQ in my lynchpool, making it {FAQ, Huntress, Garmr, Lowell}. If anyone is having second thoughts and wants to get a flash lynch on one of those, speak up now.

[a plain farmer]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

There are four slots that I'd characterize as not having pushed either of the D1 wagons heavily:

FAQ: Maverick votes Clumsy in 962/963 but doesn't seem to have any conviction in it. Then when FAQ replaces in, he doesn't acknowledge his predecessor's vote, but allows it to stay there through the lynch and doesn't mention Clumsy aside from asking a question.

Huntress: Says she scumreads Clumsy in 971 but doesn't elaborate. By 1121 she is expressing doubts about his wagon, and in 1196 states a preference for lynching Max. In 1209 says she's taking her time in voting Max because her main scumread (at the time, Rosh) was on the Max wagon. She then votes Max in 1239 citing no realistic chance of lynching Rosh.

Johnny: Says in 1244 that 1207 is the only thing making him want to vote Clumsy, then votes him in 1252.

Shaddow(Garmr): Wasn't on either the Clumsy or Max wagon.

Of these, the only one whose actions vis-a-vis the D1 wagons seem scummy is FAQ, since he basically helped a wagon go through without doing anything to invite blame on himself.

Do you have a reason why not having heavily pushed either of these wagons is inherently scummy?

[a plain farmer]

I was only talking about D1, since that's what Titus seemed to be concerned with.

[a plain farmer]

I'd like to ask some people about their reads on certain other people. The names I ask about aren't arbitrary, but I don't want to say why I picked them.

@FAQ:

What are your feelings on Johnny, Rosh, and Garmr?

@Garmr:

What are your feelings on Johnny, FAQ, and Titus?

@Huntress:

What are your feelings on FAQ, Lowell, and mhsmith?

@Rosh:

The scumslip you mention in 1581 might be something. However, my past experiences tell me to treat such things with a grain of salt. In looking at my own scumlean on Huntress, I see that it was mostly due to Jeanne's Jake vote and Huntress's general unhelpfulness, which isn't a strong read. That combined with Huntress's response to your push having felt town to me makes not eager to lynch her (I would give her the smallest of town-leans atm).

[a plain farmer]

@Titus:

We know Clumsy is town. Max is town too. We have Pisskop, Huntress and Max who are refusing to do anything here. Huntress later takes a stand but doesn't really push anything.

Given we know that Clumsy and Max are town, Pisskop and Huntress are the ideal places to sort next.

What about the Maverick/FAQ slot? As I said a few pages ago regarding that slot's lack of pushing during this time:

FAQ: Maverick votes Clumsy in 962/963 but doesn't seem to have any conviction in it. Then when FAQ replaces in, he doesn't acknowledge his predecessor's vote, but allows it to stay there through the lynch and doesn't mention Clumsy aside from asking a question.

@Rosh:

@APF, how would you evaluate that 'slip' if Huntress flipped scum? And what would you think about Lowell's stance on Huntress? I'm mainly referring to the fact:
1)She was on his list of people he was not okay lynching D2
2) That he thinks people voting him are, "opportunistic as hell". Yet, when Huntress was apparently willing to divert two L-5 lynches on him D1, he didn't comment.

If Huntress were to flip scum, then I might see that as her distancing herself from Lowell. As for what Lowell's stance on Huntress would mean, I really don't know. I do think that Lowell had more reason to feel threatened when he had an emerging wagon on him on D2 than when it was late D1 and there were already two wagons at L-2, so that could be why he responded on D2 but not D1.

[a plain farmer]

@Froot:

What's your read on Titus?

[a plain farmer]

FAQ:

I like his play so far. He's made some good points.

Faq
null but I do agree with him on some point.

What are these points you guys like?

[a plain farmer]

@Rosh:

My read right now on Lowell is a little bit townier than Huntress. I sympathize with your frustration when it comes to sorting him. His brief style does lend itself to not letting the town focus on things other than his scumreads, but it also doesn't give us much when it comes to seeing how he's fitting in with the rest of the town.

@Everyone:

I'd like to put a vote down, but right now I'm facing a dilemma. I'm still highly suspicious of FAQ. His posts the past couple days give me scum vibes, and his vote on Titus smells like a bus.

Titus has also been independently scummy so far. Her scumhunting has been very objective (lynching Max for information, and now lynching a couple of players that were rather lazy D1). The thing with these objective pushes is that they're very safe in that they adhere to an external methodology. When you're critical of them you're more likely to grapple with the theory of the scumhunting, whereas when you're critical of something more subjective you're inclined to think of what ulterior motives could be behind it.

Now, I don't think scum!Titus deliberately thought through all that, but I do think she might've instinctively/unconsciously seized upon this manner of scumhunting because of the safety of it. And the fact that it's D3 and the scum only need two mislynches makes me uncomfortable to follow her when she's identified two easy targets.

So my top two scumreads right now are FAQ and Titus. But I recall and exchange between Maverick(FAQ) and RC(Titus) starting around 150 that gives me the impression that they're not both scum. (I suppose I can't rule out scum theater, since Ircher did say in 3 that all PTs were open in the pre-game phase)

Right now I'm feeling like FAQ but I'd like to know what you guys think.

VOTE: FA_Q2

[a plain farmer]

@APF - which posts from FAQ do you not like? I thought his pressure on Titus at the beginning of D2 was ok and now that Max has revealed to be town, even better. Not concrete, obviously.

It's not any one post or group of posts, but instead that he seems to be making only perfunctory efforts to figure out the game, and is otherwise just skirting by.

I didn't have time to deal with this today, but tomorrow I'm going to do a summary of my case on Roshar.

ftr I really want to see this. My mental priority right now is to try and sort this issue; I'll listen to other cases, but it seems like these are likely to be the two main wagons today, and I want to hear from huntress before I weigh in on what I think here.

Not that I think you're doing this, but let's make sure we're not resigning ourselves to a certain pool of lynch possibilities at this point based on the inertia of existing votes.

[a plain farmer]

I'm inclined to believe Rosh. If she were scum, I doubt she'd be the one on the team to fakeclaim like this. But anyway let's see how Huntress responds.

[a plain farmer]

If Huntress flips scum, Garmr will likely become my top scumread. Titus would improve a little bit (look at the D1 Max wagon: Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress. I'm not sure there'd be two scum there). I'll have to look more closely at the purported Huntress/Lowell connections.

[a plain farmer]

It's not so much that they're tied together (although scum will often deliberately ignore their buddies, so in a sense that does tie them together). Rather, in looking at the vote counts, I can separate the remaining players into lists in which there is likely exactly one scum:

Max's D1 wagon: {Froot, Titus, Huntress} (probably one 1 scum here)
Those who were off Max's D2 wagon: {FA_Q2, Lowell, mhsmith} (Higher chance of >1 scum, but still probably only 1. I'm not including myself, but you guys can put me in this one.)
Those not in either of the above groups: {Johnny, Rosh, Garmr}

If Rosh isn't faking it, then it seems like either Johnny or Garmr is scum, and Garmr seems scummier than Johnny atm.

[a plain farmer]

Yes, I don't think mafia really needed to do anything on the Clumsy lynch. But statistically there's still probably at least 1 on that wagon.

[a plain farmer]

Anyone else planning on getting banned?

BTW, sorry h_a, but you've replaced into a scumslot as far as I'm concerned.

VOTE: heuristically_alone

[a plain farmer]

Anyone have any thoughts on why smith was the target over our claimed PR? That one seemed rather odd to me.

If scum knew smith was a jailkeeper, it would've made a lot of sense. I didn't see any role crumbs by smith and actually had him pegged as a VT, so I assume this would be because scum have a role cop. Rosh was almost certainly smith's target last night, so if they knew he was a jailkeeper they'd know she'd be protected.

This explanation hinges on the probability that scum have a role cop, and that they used it on smith. The chances of this seem initially pretty low, but the fact that smith is dead raises them somewhat.

Other explanations: smith was right about Titus (maybe, but it's WIFOMy), Rosh is faking it (not likely).

APF - what do you think of HA's catch up post?

It's the best post the slot's made all game, but not enough to ease my suspicions.

Is this primarily because of the vote analysis?

Largely, but Garmr and shaddow's posts look like those of one who's trying to hide, and also not like those of one who's trying to find scum.

Rosh is town, because there's no way that claim/fakeclaim with huntress was an orchestrated bussing. I don't quite see johnny calls Froot town. And I

certainly

don't see why, if he is so cavalier in calling froot town based on kills, he somehow wants to pretend I'm "up in the air."

Here's a tried and true way to catch scum. If, at any point in the game, Lowell becomes obvtown, try to find the person saying "hmm he may be town but gosh I just don't know yet, we'll see." That's the person whose plan to string me along for the easy mislynch was foiled and can't quite accept it.

You're not obvtown though. :/

[a plain farmer]

@heuristic:

What would be your response to this?

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

[a plain farmer]

Are there any posts in particular you can quote/point to? I had a look through Shaddowez' ISO and nothing jumped out at me.

Hiding and not trying to find scum is more a thing that is shown through someone's pattern of posting as a whole, rather than in a few posts. As far as shaddow is concerned, he showed interest in this game for a few days from April 4th-7th, but I'll note there (and I'm probably a little bit biased here) that his vote on me in 554 was awful. He then didn't do much for the rest of his time in the game, which may very well be because of apathy or having his time consumed by other things.

But then Garmr filled his slot, and barely did anything. There was a minimalism about his posts that is very easily explained as someone trying to hide, and is very difficult to see as someone who doesn't know who the scum are and wants to find out. I encourage you to look at his ISO (only 17 posts).

[a plain farmer]

@Roshar/Everyone

Considering scum players would have known Huntress was caught, do you think it's likely that a scum player would come out and townread/defend her during D3?
You said that it was likely that scum would already know who you are, which is fair, do you think it's likely that a scum player would push you the way Lowell did? Bearing in mind that it was likely you were subsequently going to be revealed as (very likely) town?

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

There seems to be an agreement here that the scum knew from when Rosh posted her case that she was a roleblocker who blocked Huntress the previous night. I suppose it could be that they knew this from a rolecop or follower result, or they took a guess based on Rosh saying that she wasn't going to move her vote. But the kill could've also been stopped as far as they'd have known by a protection or a BP, and I'm pretty sure I've seen instances of people saying they weren't going to move their vote when they didn't actually have a PR result to back it up. So is it really likely that they knew?

[a plain farmer]

Quadruple post!

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

Are you scumreading Froot here?

[a plain farmer]

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

I notice you don't want to outright call him scum or not scum. Seems like you're trying to feel out what others think of it so you know whether to scum or town read it.

Ignoring for a moment that it's coming from your top scumread, what would your answer to the question be? I ask since you're a Lowell scumreader, if not a Lowell voter.

[a plain farmer]

There's one thing that's keeping me from from being super confident in heur being scum right now, and it's from back when Garmr answered my question about FAQ. Huntress also answered about FAQ. Here are the responses:

FAQ:

I like his play so far. He's made some good points..

Faq
null but I do agree with him on some point.

My feeling is that if Garmr were scum, he'd be hyper-aware of what his scumbuddy was saying, and wouldn't phrase his own answer so similarly. Is this something scum actually does, or am I just getting too caught up in a minor detail?

[a plain farmer]

So, people not voting the heur/Garmr/shaddow slot, are you townreading him, or scumreading him but only at #2 scum, or what?

[a plain farmer]

So Rosh and Titus both scumread Heur. FAQ was voting Heur earlier in this day. Froot and Johnny, if not explicitly scumreading Heur, don't seem particularly warm on him. This looks like a good lynch for us, folks.

I'm also unsure about your conclusions in 1688. Can you clarify what it is that implies there's one scum, or more, in each category?

I am supposing that scum would be hesitant to be on the same wagons as each other, especially when that wagon was small enough that they couldn't "hide" on it. Max's D1 wagon had you, Titus, and Huntress (and Clumsy but he'd already flipped when I made that post). Huntress flipped scum, so that makes it less likely imo that you or Titus is scum.

Then I grouped those who were not on Max's wagon D2 (FAQ, Lowell, mhsmith). This is more an assumption that there'd be at least one scum off Max's wagon than that there would be only one scum there, but unless both FAQ and Lowell are scum (which I guess is a possibility) then there would be only one.

That leaves only one scum that isn't in one of those two groups from among {Johnny, Rosh, Heur}. Since I have a solid townread on both Johnny and Rosh, Heur is the most likely scum from this group.

Now there are a lot of ways this could go wrong: Max's D1 wagon could've had multiple scum (which would probably mean Titus, since I'm townreading you more). Both FAQ and Lowell could be scum. Or Johnny could be fooling me and it's him and not Heur that's scum in that group. But of all these scenarios, the one that seems initially the most likely is Heur being scum. And this is then compounded by the consistent scumminess of the slot.

[a plain farmer]

What do you think about Titus and our conversation?

I am not sure you and Titus disagree with each other as much as you think you do. Titus's position seems to be: scum didn't know what Rosh was, but they thought she was *something* so they acted unconvinced by her case in order to draw it out. This also seems to be your position too?

And:

@Everyone

- Do you think scum would've known that Roshar was a roleblocker? Not dragging you into the conversation between Titus and I, but the likelihood of that is a pretty compelling part of my thinking. A yes or no answer would be enough for me to see if it's a reasonable idea.

My inclination is to say no here, but with the caveat that we don't know what kinds of investigative roles the scum may have that give them an advantage in setup spec (for example, if they had rolecopped smith, and saw that he was odd-night, they may have assumed there was an even-night equivalent, and that would've more readily allowed them the idea of Rosh having blocked the kill).

As I said before, I've seen people put votes down and declare they weren't moving it, and most of the time they didn't have any kind of PR result to back it up. It certainly didn't make me think "roleblocker" when I saw that (but I am a bit inexperienced).

[a plain farmer]

I'll give my thoughts on Titus, but before I pollute the waters:

@Titus:

were you suspecting Rosh was a PR by 1876? If not, was there a point before she claimed at which you were suspecting her as a PR?

[a plain farmer]

^ That should be 1576.

[a plain farmer]

My read on Titus right now basically defaults to town. She hasn't been particularly townie or scummy, and there's enough scummier players in line ahead of her that she gets put in a town spot. I do sympathize with her vote on Lowell. He may be an easy vote right now, but he's earned that status.

The strongest point against Titus is probably Rosh's in 1808. Looking at Titus's 1576 retrospectively made me think Titus thought Rosh could be a power role, and the wording is such that one could even interpret it as rolefishing. I was thinking that maybe Titus had been coming to the realization that Rosh was a PR, and that's why she voted Huntress a few posts later- in hopes of quickly lynching Huntress so Rosh wouldn't feel like she had to claim. But apparently that's not the case.

I don't really have a good explanation for town!Titus here. If she's town, then it must be just an awkward, inexplicable post townies are prone to make at least once a game.

In favor of Titus being town, there's the vote count brackets I've posted that have her as town because Huntress has already flipped scum. Also, RC replaced out of that slot, and I don't know the reason he had for it, but I think he'd be less likely to replace out if he were scum.

Just spent all morning catching up on my other game. I have to actually do work so this will have to wait one day more. It's my last game, I promise I'll do it!

Ok. Just be aware that this time tomorrow there will only be a few hours until the deadline.

[a plain farmer]

If you want to lynch Heur, now's the time to be the brave first person to switch your vote. You might have read the post above and think I'm iffy on Titus, but Heur is still definitely the scummiest imo. Look at 1816 if you haven't.

[a plain farmer]

I think RC replaced out because Pisskop joined the game? Or there was an implication that FA had said something?

RC acknowledged in 866 that people might think this, but said it was for other reasons. I hope it didn't have anything to do with FA telling him to.

[a plain farmer]

^ That is, I hope such a thing never happened.

[a plain farmer]

And who was your patient Night 2?

[a plain farmer]

Here I come to shill for Titus again. The claim is certainly plausible. Read her interactions on Page 62, at the beginning of Day 3, and the trust and value she seems to place in Johnny are consistent with having just protected him on a night with a failed kill.

More importantly, though, Heur is probscum and hasn't claimed doctor, so the opportunity cost associated with his lynch is much more favorable.

Titus should put her vote on Heur, and I hope Johnny wants to as well. And then we'd just need a couple more from Froot, Rosh, and FAQ, the latter two I believe scumread Heur. All these people I think are normally active enough during the next several hours to put the vote down. Let's do it.

[a plain farmer]

It's true that I'd also rather lynch Lowell than lynch you. But my vote is going to remain on Heur at least until I return to this thread tomorrow (when there will be about 5 hours left), and I think it would better your chances of survival to move your vote to him in that time and thus present another viable lynch.

I don't have much more to say on Heur than I did in 1816 and 1752. I'll add that shaddow and Garmr had been doing more hiding than anything else. If it were just an individual player you may be able to pass it off as them being busy or apathetic. But when you see it from two different players in the same slot, then it becomes more likely that the behavior is a result of the slot. All my points may not quite "prove it", but I don't see anything better against Lowell either.

[a plain farmer]

Well yeah that's your situation. But the lynch threshold is 5, so if you're going to want to survive you'll need the help of at least 1 person who's presently on your wagon. You can put your vote on Heur, but have it be essentially also a vote on Lowell, in that you'll move it if enough people subsequently express interest in Lowell.

[a plain farmer]

Nice lynch.

[a plain farmer]

Assuming non-Titus non-Rosh scum:

Advantages of not killing:

• Lots of WIFOM like the kind we are now seeing.
• No one is conftowned, and Rosh looks suspicious if her block target is mislynched.

Advantages of killing:

• Creates a mylo in 2 days rather than a lylo in 3.
• In a game with 2-3 kill stopping roles, the spectre of Strongman WIFOM would cast doubt on Rosh's block target.

Disadvantages of not killing:

• Day 6 would be tricky. The best thing that could happen would be a Rosh lynch, but pushing this too hard would be suspicious.
• Scum could have ended up being Rosh's night 4 block target. (Depending on who the scum is and their perceptions of Rosh's reads on them, this might be an acceptable risk to take given the dire situation they're now in)

Disadvantages of killing:

• If I were scum, I'd rather have a widely doubted even-night doctor hanging around than a new conftown from among the pool of players who were previously most suspected (even if this conftown status is mitigated by Strongman WIFOM).
• In pretty much all the hypothetical scenarios I go through, the Day 7 lylo seems more likely to have a favorable outcome for scum than the day 6 mylo.

So there is reason for non-Titus non-Rosh scum to have no-killed, which means there is reason for us to have seen this outcome in a world where Titus isn't scum.

There having been no kill last night when Rosh blocked her does make Titus more suspicious. If I were to assign a percentage value to it, I would've given today's outcome a 75% chance of occurring if FAQ or Lowell were scum, whereas if Titus were scum it would obviously have a 100% chance.

But even adjusting for this I find myself still a little bit more suspicious of FAQ and Lowell. FAQ in particular seems incriminated by the votecounts, and his post above this one pings me. I don't think town would actually see those two as the "only" possibilities.

VOTE: FA_Q2

[a plain farmer]

Heur flipped as an Even-night Jailkeeper. Since there don't seem to be any killing roles on town's side, the purpose of this JK would seem to be to block. So why not just have it be a roleblocker? Look at this bit:

16. Natural action resolution will be used in this setup. If 2 JK's target each other, the one who sends in the night pm first will take precedence. If a RB and a JK target each other, the RB takes precedence.

So it seems that the setup was designed with the following interactions in mind: there is some town role(s) that the jailkeeper is meant to block. The roleblocker can then block the jailkeeper's block, allowing the role to do whatever it does.

One of those town roles could be the Follower (Nos). But follower is a rather weak role, so I would expect there to also be another role for the JK to block. Titus's doc claim fits the bill.

Of course Titus would've known Heur's role if she were scum. But she might not have predicted when claiming that Heur would end up flipping before her, so it's not obvious that she would've tailored her claim to fit this interaction.

[a plain farmer]

^ I should also add that a Mafia Jailkeeper could be there to prevent the scum from killing the same person they block, but I don't think we've seen anything about the setup so far that would make this relevant.

[a plain farmer]

@Johnny: Yes, that is rather odd if Titus is in fact a doctor. I suppose scum could have something like an even-night strongman (in which case they might be a bit more incentivized to have killed last night, but one could still argue that no-kill was better). The jailkeeper could be intended to block the doctor, but then the scum would have to know who the doctor is.

@Everyone: So where are we at right now? Five people have at some point said they're most suspecting of Titus, and yet she has no votes. Are you still leaning towards Titus, or are you now leaning towards someone else?

Also, here's what would likely happen in both a kill and no-kill scenario:

Spoiler: Kill and no-kill scenarios

Here's where everyone stood on Night 4:

Froot
APF
Rosh

Titus

Scumpool:

Johnny
Lowell
FAQ

Note that I'd say Johnny is probtown and not in the scum pool, so in the scenarios below when there are only two scumpool candidates left, scum would be in a bad spot if that scum isn't Johnny.

If scum kill N4:

Kill APF Night 4, Day 5:

Froot
Rosh
Rosh block target (removed from scumpool)

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

Lynch one of scumpool, Kill Rosh Night 5, Day 6:

Froot
Rosh block target (removed from scumpool)

Scumpool1
Scumpool2

Two remaining in scumpool (for example, Johnny and Lowell).

If scum no-kill N4:

No kill N4, Day 5:

Froot
Rosh
APF

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3
Scumpool4

Lynch from scumpool, Kill APF Night 5, Day 6:

Froot

Rosh???

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

IF Day 6 Lynch from scumpool,

No kill Night 6, Day 7:

Froot

Rosh??????

Scumpool1
Scumpool2

IF Day 6 Lynch Rosh,

Kill Froot Night 6, Day 7:

Scumpool1
Scumpool2
Scumpool3

TL;DR- If scum had killed last night and survived Day 5, they'd have to 1v1 with either the towniest or second-towniest member of the scumpool in order to win.

If scum no-killed last night, then there would either be 2 other members of the scumpool remaining on the last day, or only 1 other but also a lot of suspicion on Rosh.

[a plain farmer]

I've said the important points against FAQ, and there isn't much separating him from Titus or Lowell in my mind. So I wouldn't be deathly opposed to lynching Titus.

@APF

- Do you think scum would risk having Roshar alive N6 going into D7? I feel like that'd throw even more suspicion around, which is more likely to get thrown at the scum player if they no-kill and are blocked with only four players left in the game.

I suppose scum would at least try to kill Rosh. At worst, they end up same as if they didn't submit a kill. But we may be going too far with their speculation. If Titus is in fact a doctor, then there's a very high chance the scum have some kind of Strongman, be it x-shot or even/odd-night. And if they have a Strongman, then who knows. They'd probably kill Rosh if they felt like she was going to block the other scum, or else they'd kill the last green name.

[a plain farmer]

I agree the scum probably wouldn't have used a strongman last night, since the chance that they'd be blocked and "cleared" is too small compared to the chance that someone else would be blocked.

[a plain farmer]

Massclaiming right now could very well hurt town by letting the scum better target their kills tonight. It might be worthwhile to massclaim tomorrow, but not today.

Also, let's not lynch Rosh, ever. Even disregarding anything pertaining to her role, she's obvtown.

The way I see it, we have three lynches left, and three lynch candidates: FAQ, Lowell, Titus. So this should be pretty simple. I know some people are also suspecting Johnny, but is there anyone who is suspecting Johnny

more

than any of those three?

[a plain farmer]

What if there is a role that could provide the town some information tomorrow? And even if we were to glean some information from that reveal as to whether or not Titus's claim is true, the sacrifice would not be worth it. An even-night doctor or roleblocker isn't worth that much more than a VT at this stage.

[a plain farmer]

I find myself feeling marginally better about FAQ at the moment, so I'll put my vote on the next one up.

VOTE: Lowell

It pains me to do this to someone who just sheeped me though.

It'd be great if everyone who isn't voting could put a vote down. Even if it doesn't result in a lynch, it would signal preferences, and we could hash it out from there.

[a plain farmer]

Johnny and FAQ, you should vote. I wont be mad if it's not up to your normal standards.

[a plain farmer]

My top choice is still Lowell. Behaviorally, he is the scummiest. But I could go for FAQ as well. The votecounts make him look awful. ISO Ircher and Dier and see for yourself.

[a plain farmer]

First I'd like to know from Johnny and Froot if they'd lynch FAQ should Lowell and Titus not be scum.

[a plain farmer]

Alright, if lynching Lowell doesn't end it I'll support Titus's lynch tomorrow.

[a plain farmer]

VOTE: Titus

[a plain farmer]

Yep, it doesn't look good for you. Anyone who wants to hammer can go ahead.

[a plain farmer]

Well done, town. And before July, too!

[a plain farmer]

Thanks for modding, Ircher and Dier. I suggest changing the title from "Town Win" to "Game Over" to avoid immediately spoiling future readers.

I felt scum had a hard time deflecting suspicion starting Day 3 or 4 because town formed a nice, solid townbloc. When there's a group of 3-4 players, and no one can credibly entertain notions of any of them being scum, it makes the game a lot easier for town. (Unless one of them is scum, but a scum has to be really convincingly town to be in such a group.)

What was the rationale behind the scum not killing Rosh N3? Smith was on point wrt Titus, but it remains that Rosh was a PR who was widely townread. Perhaps they suspected the setup had a watcher?

[a plain farmer]

Indeed.

I was also pleasantly surprised when i discovered the clumsy wagon was ALL town after my analysis. i figured odds were one was still on there, but it being zero after making that point was kinda nice

Also, the entire scumteam was on the Max wagon D2.

[a plain farmer]

This setup doesn't immediately strike me as one that would be broken by a D1 massclaim, but I do agree that it makes it very difficult for scum to claim anything other than VT (not impossible, as we saw, due to *ahem* human fallibility).

I wonder if the setup would benefit from a 1-shot Strongman. An even-night RB and an odd-night JK are probably stronger than a single, every-night JK, since the roles are dispersed over two players and there's the possibility for a second town slot to get the kind of soft towncred a PR confers. A strongman can both ensure the kill gets through and cast doubt on the kill-stopping roles. I don't know if scum's other powers would have to be curtailed for this, or if it would be balanced were it an extra ability of Titus's slot.