In post 2342, Hoopla wrote:
I wrote a solid paragraph on each player in the game, but I'm not going to bother weighing down this post again with all of them. I'll give you a town --> scum list and give you an summary of my key reads, so if you want to hear my thoughts about anyone else, just ask:
Shinobi
chamber, Antihero
Oversoul, farside (had farside townier than this last night, but am starting to rethink this read in the last 24 hours)
SpyreX
Metal Sonic
Metal Sonic
is my strongest town read, primarily for his fake-guilty on D1. It was a ridiculous gambit and surely his must know that doing that as scum has a very chance of getting himself lynched for it - the only exception to this is if SpyreX is scum with Metal, but I think there's no way Spy would sign off on that in the scum QT, and surely Metal would ask before springing that on a buddy. The simplest explanation for the play is a bored/trolling townie. I think to conclude Metal is scum doing this, it veers into conspiro-territory a little bit - it just doesn't make sense (or as much sense as town doing it) for him to do this as scum. It requires him to be somewhat prescient and have a reason behind why he's doing it, because I don't think he's just lolzing around as scum, as it (usually) just writes himself a ticket as the D1/D2 lynch. Chamber thinks it's risky to "clear" someone on the basis of one event, but this was truly the most alignment-revealing thing he has done all game. The rest of his play is detached and seemingly devoid of any real motivation - I think it's a trap to try and read Metal like a normal player, and this is the best we will get. As I said in the QT, I'd pretty much gamble the game on this read being correct.
I made an observation early in the game about
SpyreX
being full of bluster and energising rhetoric, but his actions and play not really syncing up with his words. He's had a low presence in the game and everything he says and his tone seems kinda scummy. The thing that makes me pause and override my game-long paranoia about him is lamenting about his reads are so woefully bad after going for ZZZX over Bob on D2. Why would scum-Spy set himself up for a D3 where he essentially has to play the pity-party card, admit all his reads are shit and basically act incompetent. As scum, you have a choice in how "right" you want your reads to be when players flip. I just don't see Spy-scum deliberately choosing to go down the woe-is-me-my-reads-are-so-bad road instead of just throwing in an occasional correct read from time to time. For the same reason, I think Desperado is also town - his reads have been so poor to the point where why would scum play that way? It's a pretty cheeky play as scum, as most people won't give you credit for it, ergo most scum won't do it. A much simpler explanation is they're town.
Shinobi
's slot has done fuck all this game, and coupled with the "ask Hoopla questions then hammer (terribly) three hours later" he is my prime suspect. The way he has interacted with me has been kinda jarring and it looks like he isn't even considering the possibility that I am town, which is an inherently scummy mindset. It looks like he is entering the day with an established goal to see me as scum, rather than genuinely trying to work out my alignment. I'm mildly wary that this might just be "oh, that's just how he plays" thing - his impatient hammer kinda implies he isn't one to consider/reconsider things, so I guess he could do this as town. But it seems likelier that it is coming from scum. I wanted to lynch from between Antihero and Shinobi today, because I think at least one of them is scum (probably only one), so for me, a Shinobi lynch would also be partly utility, as if he flips scum, Antihero will have a lot more use as town deeper in the game than the other way around, so there is some upside to lynching Shinobi over Antihero in my opinion. Regardless, I think Shinobi is scummier than Antihero anyway, so that extra upside isn't really a tipping factor.