UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[Ampersand]

Yarr. Let's give you a chance to prove it. You can start by dismantling the wagon on you.

Vote: Prozac

[Ampersand]

Yayyyyyyyy!

Nexus is probably scum.

- Fenchurch.

[Ampersand]

[Ampersand]

Okay I believe you. Maybe.

In that case it probably is CDB.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

CDB how do you feel about this game right now?

Porochaz, speaking honestly, do you think the statistics point to you being a good lynch here?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

We can't do it; we're already paired up with ourselves.

If you vote for Prozac, we may be able to set you up with someone.

[Ampersand]

Ampersand is town but good.

I think you mean "and", not "but".

Scum: Shanba, inspiratieloos
Null: AurorusVox, Elmo
Town: ChannelDelibird, Nexus, Primate, Prozac

[Ampersand]

I still think CDB might be scum for the record.

Also I was confused by Primate's comment but I think I understand it. He thinks we look town but are good enough to be able to look town even if we weren't town? Well if so he is wrong; we only look town if we are town.

Also if we look scummy we are also town. Because we are town.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

That's not how you dismantle the wagon on you, Prozac.

How on earth do people have reads at this stage

Ouija boards.

[Ampersand]

I'm reasonably confident that after a bit of pressure people should realise that I'm town

It hasn't happened yet but I promise I'm keeping my mind open.

inspie might also be scum actually.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I was going to make a scummy-looking comment about something Fenchurch didn't post because she thought it looked scummy but then I thought that comment looked scummy so I didn't post it.

But yeah, we should probably just lynch insp.

Vote: insp

[Ampersand]

At least I'm not trying to get you mislynched this time? That should be helpful.

Primate, you should place a vote.

[Ampersand]

I'm sort of curious as to what the scummy thing was...

Oh I'll just say it now because by the end of the game I'll have forgotten. I was going to say something along the lines of:

'inspi might be scum. But I'm not that confident in the read as I don't know that I can tell his scum-game and town-game apart that well, especially this early.'

Then I decided against that second sentence because:
a) it seemed a bit pointless, basically posting for the sake of posting
b) it kinda weakens my declaration of a scumread on inspi if I then say I can't read him.

I was disappointed in myself that I didn't have more to say at that stage, but decided it was better to post a one-liner than to add bulk and make a worse post.

But I don't mind saying it now because I've just re-read and now I feel like I have a bit more of a handle on this game...

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Poro - why did you take this long to vote, and why have you chosen for your eventual vote to be on Elmo?

Really not liking the run of cdb's posts. Context gets lost in writing, but its reminding me of a certain scum game in Orlando, tone wise.

Can you explain which game you're thinking of?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

In what way?

Well, I don't have loads of reads still, but more than before.

CDB - On rereading, I think he's more likely town, or at least, not especially scum. His explanation for his posting in #55 seems fairly genuine and I can see him having this reaction as town. Plus I was having some of the same feelings - awareness that my posting wasn't coming across as super townie, because I haven't been able to do much scumhunting yet, and in my opinion that is what I'm not as confident of him being town as I sometimes am, but he's townier than some for now.

Nexus - Townreading him mainly based on him having presumably committed himself to a particular role, and I think he's less likely to do that as scum.

Elmo - I also have him as null, but CES thinks that the questions he asks in #61 feel town.

AVox - Null. AVox being scum in that previous invitational makes me wary about reading him without a lot more content.

Shanba - Null. Shanba being town in that previous invitational makes me wary about reading him without a lot more content.

inspi - Leaning scum. CES points out that his comment in #69 seems fake. Did he really 'not think it would make a difference'? Seems more likely (as town) that he simply didn't consider it at a time. If so, the fact that he is declaring a thought process now means he's making it up -> therefore lying -> therefore scum.

Poro - Might be scum but I'm not great at reading Poro. My beef with the stats thing (and my tiny scum-ping) was:
Presumably Poro is 'more likely to be scum' because he picks scum more often. But we didn't pick our roles in this game. The fact that he doesn't point this out made me think that maybe, he didn't recognise that difference because he still got scum.
CES thinks: Poro might be scum because he feels like he's not really connected to the game that much.

Primate - Nullish. Although he seems fairly loose and happy so far, so maybe town.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

A couple of minor things I forgot:

Nexus' cry of "bullshit" upon entering the game did make me think he'd drawn a scum PM. But his activity and engagement points towards him being town.

I guess that is the difference comparing Poro and Nexus right now? Nexus seems active and engaged, Poro seems active but not engaged.

And when I say engaged, I think maybe I mean 'scumhunting'.

- Fenchurch

PS: I edited my last post to move the Shanba and Avox reads together, because it worked better that way, but that accidentally made Elmo become 'also null' when nobody previously had been described as 'null', oops.

[Ampersand]

I haven't been able to do much scumhunting yet, and in my opinion that is what I'm not as confident of him being town as I sometimes am, but he's townier than some for now.

Woops, I also didn't finish writing this properly. It's my opinion that I'm decidedly not scumhunty when I'm scum. So failing to be scumhunty, makes me aware that I might as well be scum. Since I was having that thought process this game as town, I could imagine CDB-town having the same one.

And, sorry for taking a while to get going here, I think the past few days I've still been reeling from the aftershock of Team Mafia.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Seems like the naked vote was placed to bait someone into voting him so he could turn it around and vote them without needing to put too much effort in himself.

I'm not really a fan of this logic as the purported motivation behind Prozacscum's naked vote doesn't seem that different from what Prozac is claiming it is. Having given it some thought, I feel like there is some sort of valid point there, but on the whole I do tend to think that Prozac's described motivation was at least broadly true.

I mean, what effort? It's not like we have Shakespeare entire works to go off of here. I mean this is ridiculous, you are all acting like we have plenty to go and Im still just coming out of RVS... its page 5, why are you acting otherwise?

We're halfway through the Day! And you're familiar with all of us!

[Ampersand]

Current reads:

CDB - prob town
Nexus - prob town, seems legitimate and trying to make things happen
Shanba - prob town, 104 seems good
Primate - prob town, 101 seems honest

Elmo - null

Poro - scummy
inspi - scummy
AVox - scummy

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Fences is tryhard but I imagine that's just fenchurch indicative more than anything and I can't really suspect people just because they're clearly more motivated than anyone else.

If it wasn't me, you'd think that's a scumtell?

And since it is me, you think it's a nulltell?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yes Fen, the tone pinged for me - in particular there was that triple run of posts that just seemed a little off to me. Scrambling for approval in a way. But I think that with you it's just as likely to come from you you being helpful.

What do you think is a scumtell for me? What do you think is a towntell for me?

[Ampersand]

Sorry for my inactivity guys, I'll have more time starting Monday.

That's a shame, because the deadline is Tuesday. And you're one of the people we have to make a decision on whether to lynch by then.

---

That said, my current instinct on the scumteam is AVox and Poro. But I'd rather have more to go on by now.

But CES thinks inspie is still the most likely. Because (and I do normally agree with this in principle) scum are more comfortable with extended V/LA's than town are, because it doesn't seem like it will have such an adverse effect on their win condition.

This is why I didn't want to hydra.

Okay actually we've just talked about it more and CES is happy with this. So, I think AVox's vote on Poro looks potentially like a bus. Like, he sees a wagon building on Poro, thinks he gains more from being on it than off it, and so takes the opportunity. I also think AVox is likely to play scum this way.

And I actually feel marginally more confident of AVox being scum than Poro. The reason the vote seems like a bus is because it felt a bit artificial, so it could just be a vote from scum on town. So right now I'd prefer to:

VOTE: AVox

But reasonably happy to switch to Poro if it's needed.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

AVox can you answer my questions at the top of this page please?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I will remind people that the deadline is in three (3) days. Everyone should vote for one of AV, Poro and insp.

Especially after AV's non-response in 134, I think that's the right vote, but more than that it's time to move forward towards a lynch.

[Ampersand]

I'm not ready to lynch yet though, especially since I'd be surprised if anyone has a complete view of the game thus far, with a number of posters having barely posted.

We're gonna lynch someone very soon regardless of whether anyone has a 'complete view of the game' or not, so please let's work with what we've got.

In fact, I'd like to have enough time to analyse a claim and react, so can we get to this stage asap.

Nexus: you're doubting yourself on Poro - why? How do you feel about AVox?

CDB: you have inspi as most scummy, neutral on AVox, and Poro as not voteworthy. What are your reasons for these reads, please?

Primate: where are you? Where is your review of the game?

Elmo, Shanba: I have no issues with either of you, please continue doing what you're doing.

Patrick

- prods on Primate, inspi and Nexus please? Maybe Poro?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Are neither of you willing to answer my questions or to elaborate on your current thoughts?

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the votes. The lynch is important, but I was kinda hoping to get some information at the same time.

Poro - what did you mean by 'russian roulette' style game btw?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

You didn't have questions for me?

You were the 'elaborate on your thoughts' part of that sentence.

I get your point about inspi, but I still feel that it's possible to have reads on the remaining players and work from that. And in the last invitational we lynched both scum in 12 pages.

You've gone with the AVox wagon, why? I mean obviously I agree with the vote, but I still want to hear what sways you.

I literally answered your question - I was doubting myself because I wasn't sure about inspie and AV and just wondered if I was overly paranoid

That doesn't really answer my question. I knew that, but what gave you doubts about inspi and AV in particular?

Also, you complained about too many scumreads, but three scumreads in a game with probably two scum doesn't seem that much of an problem.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Would it be bad form to say lynch the slot?

I don't think it's bad form, there's games where I've felt it was the right move, but my willingness depends on my read of the slot in question and the rest of the game. Right now inspi isn't my top scumread and my townreads aren't that strong either.

Looking at his play and his replace out, I can see him doing all this as town. I think CES disagrees somewhat with my opinion though.

Basically, I'm reluctant rather than keen to lynch him. Would like to wait and see if a replacement is forthcoming first, at any rate.

- Fenchurch

PS:

Patrick

- can you delete my posts from the wrong account?

[Ampersand]

Awesome yay! Hi hito!

[Ampersand]

Yarr hito!

What does give me pause is that AV did a better job of faking engagement with the game and scumhunting when he was scum in the Scumdon invitational.

I also remember him being really obvious in his first as scum at the meet though.

AV, if you're town, you don't have to convince us of that, you could just convince us that Poro is scummier.

[Ampersand]

This is dangerously going into the crappy semantic tells newbies love, but I can't help but feel that the use of past tense here is kind of scummy. Prozac *seemed* scummy? Fenchurch *was* doing? Well, what about now? Gross vibe of trying to ensure consistency with past content.

I was going to call you scum but I do actually like this point.

I think you/CES were a hydra in that awful hydra only game I played in as Copper. So...kind of?

Hey, we won that game! It was more awful for town that it was for us.

I've caught up and this would be an excellent spot for a vote, but I'm not going to vote yet! how mysterious. that hito guy must be up to something.

You're going to treestump, right? Tell me I'm right.

[Ampersand]

Yes, please for the love of god claim AV, yes. Right now I still want to lynch you more than anyone else and your claim may well be a factor in either strengthening or weakening that feeling for me.

And if you're not scum, please do some more work in identifying and persuading us of who the scum is instead.

Igree with CES that I like hito's points on AVox. hito seems probably town. Not as sold on the points about Nexus though I'm afraid, because I kinda expect Nexus to play like this as town (but I admit that I don't know what I expect Nexus to play like as scum, which makes things more awkward).

v t n t y t ht bt cn b n m th ty t my yb h t ng yt gn...

Just for the record, if this is a code then I disapprove.

Patrick

- prods on Poro and Primate?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I've clearly claimed an only town role so you should all sheep me and lynch poro.

This doesn't seem like a mason breadcrumb.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Hmmm.

I'm not really sure what to do with this. The first two breadcrumbs are a bit sketchy and make me think there's a chance scum-AVox hadn't [fully] decided to fakeclaim mason at that point. But... it could be worse, and is possible that he really is a mason. But even as a mason it's still possible that he's scum, as a werewolf mason (scum could be any type afaik).

Any mason partners AVox, or are you solo?

CDB, you said you'd post yesterday evening and you still haven't. This makes me sad, and it also shifts my read on you towards null/scummy.

I don't feel super-ready for a lynch now, deadline aside; although CES feels differently.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

weird that he should claim and not reveal what the coded post was about?

v t n t y t ht bt cn b n m th ty t my yb h t ng yt gn...

Aaaaaaa, aa aaaa aa aaaaaaa aaaa a aaaa aaaa aaaaaaaa aa aaaaaaa a aaaaa aaaaaa. Aaaaaaaaaaa, a aaa aaaa aaaaaaa aaaa!!

I wasn't at the meet so someone should tell me if this is some sort of meet reference, or whatever

Shanba, I'm guessing AVox was telling the truth when he said afterwards that it wasn't a code, he was just demonstrating that his keyboard wasn't working?
hito, I don't think it's a reference, Elmo is just screaming. Or he's translated AVox's code. Or posting a code of his own.

So I'll probably hammer AV around ~12 hours from this post? Would like Ampersands thoughts on that last Shanba post though. For now, it's bedtime.

You've put it all into much better words than me, but I'm in a similar place to you, where I don't have a lot of confidence in this lynch because a number of other people have also been reasonable amounts of scummy. I didn't notice the thing about Shanba not pushing Poro until you pointed it out, but I agree with it. I think CDB's disinterest in the game could be an indication that he's scum. I think Nexus could be scum, I genuinely don't know how to begin reading him, and I'm kind of in the same place with Poro. (CES says he trusts CDB's earlier declaration of Nexus being town, but personally I don't have faith in that, especially under the circumstances).

I think Elmo and Primate are probably town, but neither of those are strong townreads at the best of times. I think you're town but I don't know how good your scumgame is.

The issue is mainly that a whole bunch of people aren't putting much effort into the game and that makes it very hard to read them and discern the townies and the scum.

So it's a bit of a vote-and-pray lynch rather than a lynch that I have a lot of confidence in. But I don't have a good alternative.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I meant to post this yesterday but it seems to not have gone through.

My thinking on the "only town role" was that it could point to AV preparing a fake claim for Mason Lover (Mason Doctor also works but seems less likely) but then changing his mind and going for something less risky/outlandish when pushed to claim (I find this plausible because I have done that exact thing on Skype). Not the most likely theory (it does pick up some points with the bromance vs. broship quibbling) but it does make me somewhat more willing to lynch AV.

I also just think it's more likely that AVscum would fake-claim Mason than that AVtown would happen to draw a role so strongly associated with him.

Thus:
============[}
{]============

[Ampersand]

We're out this evening so I can't add more than I have done, just logged on in case there was a flip.

Please can someone make sure they hammer before deadline?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Slight concern about Ampersand still being alive but that could be uber paranoia.

The hitokill put me off a little too at first, although in re-reading he probably was contributing a bit more than us by the end of the Day. It does make me worry a little about Shanba and Primate even though I think their posting has generally been town-sounding (but also both did seem to avoid making an impact on the D1 lynch in one way or another).

Bleh, the game feels much more intractable now after two town flips.

I suspect this is still the right vote:

Vote: Porochaz

Channel, you should post!

[Ampersand]

Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?

Yarr. In re-reading you just sounded off to me at several points and I think everyone else has been at least somewhat townish.

Although thinking over the hitokill more, whereas I don't necessarily find it compelling evidence towards Primate/Shanba/Nexus, maybe it does point to Poro being town? Hito was the one most strongly pushing outside of the central AV vs. Poro conflict and that's a conflict you want to leave firmly behind you if you're Poroscum.

[Ampersand]

To add to CES' post above, he currently thinks Poro is most likely scum by PoE, but admits that he's not sure if Poro as scum would have incentive to kill hito, and says I'm free to move our vote if I want to.

I don't yet know if I want to.

Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?

This is a weirdly worded question though. Were you asking CES to explain why he voted for you? Or just confirm whether he had a reason? Because I can't think of a situation in which the answer to the latter question would be 'no'.

---

I was also half expecting us to die during the night. I guess there's multiple potential reasons why hito died instead:
a) he had a better grasp on who the scum were
b) he seemed more likely to work out who the scum were in future
c) he seemed more town
d) he seemed less likely to get mislynched
e) we seemed more likely to be protected

But since I just finished a game where I died N1 and had the two scum as my top two scumreads, I don't want to ignore the possibility of a). Which makes Nexus/Shanba/Primate more likely to be scum, as far as I can tell.

Ugh, this game just feels like wading through mud. It's frustrating coming out of Team Mafia, where I had at least one or two strong reads in most of our games, into this, where despite me being familiar with all the players, I feel like I don't have a solid clue.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Hito kill strikes me as odd; I might have been prepared to go after him for some of his AV push.

Is this true? Did you think hito came off as scummy for pushing the AV lynch, and if so, in what way?

I still think that Nexus is town.

Can you elaborate on this? CES is trusting you on this read, but I'd like to know more about where it's coming from.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yarr. Makes me happy I'm still on poro.

[Ampersand]

Wow, I'm pretty embarrassed to admit that I kinda forgot about this game for the past couple of days. I think that's the first time that's happened to me. Sorry all.

Porochaz - why did you choose to track CDB?

CES points out that even as a Tracker, Poro could be a Mafia Tracker, but thinks that if the claim is a lie or is scum this will become apparent come massclaim, so Poro is not the best lynch for today.

I'm inclined to believe the claim, and I'm inclined to think Poro is town now. I didn't have any strong read on him before anyway (the vote and the push was all from CES), and the hito-kill plus his claim make me think he's probably town.

My order of preference for lynching now:
scummiest > less scummy
Nexus >> Shanba > Primate/Elmo/CDB >>> Porochaz

I've read CDB's 228 on why he thinks Nexus is town, and I don't really agree. I think it assumes less from Nexus' scum play than is correct - that he wouldn't show engagement or investment in the game, that he wouldn't express opinions counter to the majority - I don't think these things are true. I think Nexus' play here could be scum, and I think he would be likely to kill hito last night.

VOTE: Nexus

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

unvote

HMMM

Shanba, is this all you have to say in response to the claim?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

patrick how you getting on with a primate replacement mate

That's the only thing you want to comment on?

[Ampersand]

Yayyy, hi Tammy!

I'm mulling a theory where CDB-scum overestimates his ability to read Nexus-town and ends up giving reasoning that seems really stretched. I'm not sure how dumb that sounds. I have to reread this specifically, ugh. I do remember him making a side comment about the AV lynch that seemed intended to earn him town cred but did nothing to stop the lynch from happening. I remember disliking his Shanba vote in #223 but not why. Hmm.

I could believe this. CES suggested a theory when I voted Nexus, that CDB and Nexus could be scum together, and that would be a reason for CDB declaring a strong but false townread on Nexus. But actually, CDB could be scum by himself and this would still work.

The problem for me in this game isn't really that we know each other too well; it's just that nobody is playing in a way that strikes me clearly as their town or scum game. Everyone is in range of both. Which makes it hard to get conviction in any read.

Still, it's a small game and I feel like I've narrowed things down a bit now. Elmo seems slightly more town just for making good points about CDB and on Nexus' reaction to Poro's claim. Tammy is [read pending].

Currently wiling to vote Nexus, Shanba, CDB.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh I remember, this is the only post I worried about from Ampersand.

In yoloville, CES made a similar type of "mislynch" slip and I should have paid more attention to it when Vi pointed it out.

Well CES was referring to the Scumdon invitational, where he was scum, and Shanba was the Day 1 mislynch. So that is the game where CES knew that Shanba was town.

Also you should ask Patrick about how often scumslips are valid.

One thing that did keep repeating to me in the dream though was Nexus' assertions that he got his favorite role. I don't remember seeing anyone react to that at all and it kinda surprised me that he's on people's suspect list while doing something that I thought would be familiar or that would spark a response. I'm not sure what to make of that. Maybe I'm misremembering how many times he said it.

Woops, I had forgotten this. I don't actually remember what Nexus' favourite role is, although now I'm thinking about it I have a guess. It did make me think he was town on D1 though, that is true. People who give very early reactions to their role I generally think are town because I do that more often as town myself (as scum I often haven't decided what I want to fakeclaim at that point).

That said, right now everyone has something that makes me think they might be town:
* Nexus was pretty active on D1 and there is the role thing
* CDB's reaction to being the first wagon seemed town
* Elmo has made some good comments
* Primate/Tammy have also made some good comments
* Porochaz I think is town mainly for the claim
* Shanba seems more engaged than I would expect him to be as scum, and has made some good comments.

Hmm so for a lot of people it comes down to 'they've said some things that seem like legitimate scumhunting to me'. I'm probably being too generous with my definition here, although I maintain that this game is harder than the games I read most of in Team Mafia, where I felt several scum were fairly obvious in their lack of scumhunting. I will try and do a proper re-read soon though, because that should help, and evidently I've already forgotten stuff.

I'm switching to Shanba now though, because looking back just briefly, although he's posted more than Primate/Elmo, I think he's actually been less insightful, and the post I'd marked him as town for (104) doesn't look that amazing in retrospect.

Plus I think Shanba-scum would also be fairly likely to make the hito-kill.

VOTE: Shanba

Tammy - I did mention the CDB-tracked-nowhere when CES and I were talking about the possibility of a Nexus-CDB scumteam yesterday, he didn't seem bothered by it. At the time I thought that it would be be fine as it just means the other scum made the kill. But now I think about it, in a 2:7 game, would the scum be likely to have two power roles? Although it is possible they don't, or that one of their powers is a passive and/or negative utility (e.g. reflexive doctor).

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Dammit.

Patrick

, at some point maybe could you tidy my mis-posts please?

[Ampersand]

But I will say that the reason why I asked what CES thought about the no track on CDB was because in NY 146 when he replaced in he gave a statistical reason why he was likely not scum because of a no track on him/or vanilla result, damn now I'm second guessing that and will have to look back. If it was a track, I might have another question. So, tomorrow.

Tracker innocents tend to have some value, yes. I don't care about this one so much because I don't really feel like CDb would've made the kill (e.g. if Shanba pushed for a hitokill, then I think the natural default is for him to make it) and also because Prozac's alignment is still unknown.

Channel, you should vote for Shanba. Deadline is on Sunday!

[Ampersand]

Hito explains swagger tell in 202.

Hmm, I should vote but it's, uh, late. Tammy has posted a bunch of stuff which I haven't read properly but seems reasonably townish so far, which is mildly annoying since that leaves me with Nexus and CDB, and, well, is it that easy? It just feels off because I'd expect CDB to get nervous around Nexus, but he just seems very nonchalant about the whole thing. I dunno. Consider this a nominal vote for CDB.

I've definitely thought at times it could just be those two.

[Ampersand]

Shanba, you should probably just claim.

Non-voters, you should probably vote.

I'm sorry for not mustering up more energy for this game.

But don't worry, we've got a plan.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Shanba, why aren't you voting anyone? You were waiting for a couple of players to give their own read on you, is that likely to help you place a vote?

Nexus, what the hell was that? Oh, your vote on us was a joke-vote? Also I'm unclear between your 302 and 303, you imply you haven't read the game, but you do appear to be up to date with the claims.

To be fair, wouldn't the best move be to lynch one of the two claimed players? And technically a Tracker is more useful than a VT.

CES thinks this is scummy. Suggesting lynches based on gamestate rather than reads indicates an unwillingness to take responsibility for choosing a lynch.

We might be up for a flashwagon on Nexus, if anyone else is interested.

CDB - your read on Nexus was based on his engagement and activity in early game. Does his lack of activity on Day 2 do nothing to modify that read?

Elmo - Shanba is right in that you don't really seem to have declared a read on him. In 286 you rule out Tammy and then say that leaves you with CDB-Nexus, but at that point I'd already placed a vote on Shanba, so why not consider him? Why haven't you considered us at all, for that matter?

Tammy, where are you? When you joined the game your provided plenty of exciting insight and observations, but for the past two days you've vanished. (Is this because you are scum?)

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

No more than anyone else's lack of activity has.

You'd say it's no different? I might not have been amazingly active, but I have definitely read every part of the game as it's happened, and commented on it.

How confident would you say you are in your Nexus-read? Like, how accurate do you think it is, how surprised would you be to be wrong, how likely would you be to put money on it if that were an option. (Note: not asking you to actually put any money on it, no rule-breaking, but this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch.)

Feel free to provide this information in comparison to your other reads, too.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch

* on a read, not just a lynch

PS: god-damn hydraslips

[Ampersand]

Shanba, if you are town - and I'm still open to the possibility that you are town - please vote for someone who isn't Porochaz? Quite a few people (myself included) are unwilling to lynch him today, and he has claimed a PR.

I started my reread, and first thing I noticed was that Nexus didn't actually claim to have gotten his 'favourite role' as Tammy described it earlier, but he got 'the role that he always picks in Greater Idea'. (To be fair, these could be the same thing, but I'm not sure right now if they are.)

CDB - do you think you know what role this is? I'm not looking for the role itself, just your thoughts.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Gut is saying Ampersand.

Where does this come from? I mean besides 'gut' and 'I've been wrong about Fen/CES before', what is there that actually makes you feel like we are likely scum?

Also, out of interest, do you think my forum scum-game would be similar to my F2F scum-game?

And what is it that makes you feel you '

should

vote Shanba', prior to his vote on you? Just because it's 3 hours to deadline and we've gotta lynch somebody, or something besides that?

I've got more thoughts forming from my re-read but I'm only on p5 now so will try and finish the whole thing before drawing conclusions.

Also my previous post was incorrect, Nexus did say he got his 'favourite role'.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Porochaz, out of interest, if you had been roleblocked when you tracked CDB, would you know it, or would you get the same as if he didn't go anywhere?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

NEXUS! POROCHAZ! Ugh. Stoppit you both.

Pleeease don't start drawing conclusions about what I am or am not trying to do when I'm literally in the middle of trying to figure the game out. I'm still only halfway through my re-read, it's taking longer than I thought, which is a shame when the hours are ticking down.

THING 1

: Nexus is a lot more town than I remember in the early game. Posts like 89, where he makes a good point on Poro's lack of contribution, and several others where he points out contradictions, asks valid questions and pushes for more content.

Nexus, my read on you went south from Day 2 onwards, and this is purely because of two things: 1) hito made several points against you and hito got killed, 2) your lack of contribution to the game D2. 80% of your content this game is from D1 (perhaps 90% prior to this recent run of posts). I don't actually know your forum scum-meta that well, but I know mine is that I struggle to keep up the facade of scumhunting throughout the whole game, and moreso if people start suspecting me. I could definitely imagine you going through the same thing, and those two things gave me serious doubts.

My re-read of D1 reduces these doubts a lot, because frankly, your play there does seem really town, and most of our game content as a whole has been D1. Also...

THING 2

: Poro looks a lot sketchier on Day 1 than I remember. The aforementioned Nexus post 89 is a good explanation of it, and discussion surrounding it. Poro's claim that he never really got into the game because of CDB's RVS-vote, seems a really weak reason.

Caveat to THING 2: At this point though, I'm heavily reminded of D2 of the Scumdon invitational, where I was convinced that one of CDB and Poro were scum, and it turned out neither were. They were both acting really weird and drawing wrong conclusions. So this gives me some doubt in my read of Poro, which I guess leads to.

THING 3: I'm still pretty neutral on Shanba, and hito did make good points about Shanba as wel, most notably 197.

Right now I think it's either Shanba-???? or Poro-????, or I guess a very slim outside chance of Shanba-Poro. So I'm probably happy with the Shanba lynch, as it stands.

I'm still trying to finish up my re-read so I'll post this now and add more thoughts if I have time.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

It's stupid, it's a "too good to be true" read. I have an absolute town read on you and varying degrees of mehness on everyone else.

Also, I just want to point out how mad this is. 'There's one player who seems the most town... so that player is probably scum'.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I mean, most of my points still stand.

What are your points? That I had a massive turnaround on you Day 2? I've explained my reasons for that. You even already knew my reasons. That I've been needling CDB about his read on you? Because he hasn't had any of the same doubts, and that makes me wonder if CDB is scum, in part. And if not, because if you are town and he has compelling reasons for it, then I want to know about that.

Also I was questioning him about whether he knew your favourite role, in part because if your favourite role turned out to not be what I thought it was (it is) then CDB-scum might have nightkilled you if he knew it, and so I wanted to know upfront whether that was the case. I didn't want you to claim it.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Also my current thoughts (in case of death) are that it's either Shanba-Porochaz, or it's one of them paired with Tammy.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

The 3 most important quotes about my top suspects, from Day 1:

On Poro

:

Me too, this russian roulette style of game is not helping matters either, though AV isn't a horrible vote and looking through his iso's it's not just the me vote, it's the cdb vote as well. I'm not ready to lynch yet though, especially since I'd be surprised if anyone has a complete view of the game thus far, with a number of posters having barely posted.

unvote

Apologies, I was away and forgot to post in this game saying so.

vote AV

These are consecutive posts from Poro. That's a pretty unnatural progression. For someone who literally ten posts ago figured that no one has a complete view of the gamestate, you sure seem confident that the status quo is landing correctly.

Poro never actually gives a reason why he came around to voting AV (the closest he comes is 191. To me, not giving any explanation for why he placed that vote is incredibly scummy. It implies that he recognised he had to do something in relation to the wagon (especially given that he was the competing lynch), but couldn't come up with a satisfactory reason, so just refrains from giving one at all.

---

On Shanba

:

Not hammering AV. <snip> Still think prozac's a better lynch. <snip>

I'm getting some intense bad vibes off of this post. Not even a token effort to get us actually ON prozac. In fact his last like five mentions of prozac are saying "I still prefer prozac" but about the only mention of WHY he prefers prozac is something way back when that he admits was vibes.

Like reading this post, it seems pretty dang clear that Shanba knows AV is the lynch and isn't taking any real measure to deal with it, even though Zac is L-2 and convincing me to vote him would pretty much lock up the lynch. For all Shanba is saying he wants prozac lynched over AV, he doesn't seem to have any skin in that game (and in fact spends more time raising eyebrows as AV).

I don't know though, this gives me the worry that Shanba is scum and AV is a mislynch, but I don't think enough to turn me aside.

Shanba has given some explanation for this, basically that he wasn't super sure on Prozac either, enough to push the lynch. But the point still stands; Shanba hasn't given much by way of case for why Poro is scum. This is actually part of what makes me think it is plausible that they are scum together.

---

On Primate

:

(I probably won't have a chance to post after this today btw.)

But you didn't hammer me?

This also seems like a scummy way to react around a lynch. This isn't quite as strong because I do find it believable that Primate just wasn't invested in the game (he'd already said he regretted signing up), and/or he trusted hito to hammer. But still. And although Tammy's entrance did strike me as town, I don't think she's been overwhelmingly so, although I've yet to re-read it yet.

More comments forthcoming if I get further. I wish I had started re-reading sooner. If claims weren't an issue, I'd probably be voting Porochaz right now. But taking that into account, and given that I still think Shanba has a reasonable chance of being scum, this seems like the right lynch.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

They're really hammering CDB for his townread on me, and it's really pinging me.

Also Nexus, you said yourself that CDB hard-town-reading you made you somewhat suspicious of him. Why do you not think that others of us would want to find out whether his read on you was genuine or invented?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Patrick, if a tracker in this game was blocked what result would they get?

In that situation, a "no result"

So Porochaz, is this different from the result you got on CDB that said he didn't go anywhere?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm not actually sure enough people are around to secure a lynch on, well, anyone atm.

We need 4 to lynch. 5 players have all posted recently (CDB, Ampersand, Nexus, Shanba, Porochaz). Even the other 2 (Elmo, Tammy) are probably online. We shouldn't have a problem with the numbers, provided we agree on the lynch.

[Ampersand]

Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?

Poro, I kinda asked this before but, why did you think we were voting for you at this point?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Shanba voting no-votes-Elmo with less than 3 hours to deadline is so WTF that it seems like an odd kind of towntell, because what kind of scum tries to not-die by doing that? Tempted to move to Prozac.

Just want to give the counterpoint to this, which is: scum who think they're probably gonna get lynched anyway and is trying not to avoid relational tells.

But I'm not sure that is the case here, I agree on your point and it may be valid. Ugh.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

trying not to avoid relational tells.

Woops, negated my statement by mistake.

Also CES thinks that Shanba-scum wouldn't have looked worse if he placed his vote onto one of the other existing wagons (us or CDB).

I'm still in the place where I'd prefer not to lynch Porochaz

Today

because of the claim, and still reasonably happy to lynch Shanba.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

wouldn't have looked worse

OMG



- Fen

[Ampersand]

Is a weird question to ask me, all I can do in this situation is wind myself up in knots.

I gave my reason for this in 77.

Poro - Might be scum but I'm not great at reading Poro. My beef with the stats thing (and my tiny scum-ping) was:
Presumably Poro is 'more likely to be scum' because he picks scum more often. But we didn't pick our roles in this game. The fact that he doesn't point this out made me think that maybe, he didn't recognise that difference because he still got scum.
CES thinks: Poro might be scum because he feels like he's not really connected to the game that much.

And I honestly don't see why there is anything wrong with that question. I've said my issue with it. I still think that the fact that you've been so knocked back by CDB pointing out you are statistically most likely scum, is really weird, and I don't know why you would be thrown off balance by that if you're town.

The point I was making in the question was, the stats were irrelevant to this game. But you seemed really bothered by the stats, instead of just shrugging it off, which makes me think you didn't see it as irrelevant, which might be a pointer towards you being scum.

Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?

Yarr. In re-reading you just sounded off to me at several points and I think everyone else has been at least somewhat townish.

See, this is not a reason.

How is this not a reason?

PoE and you sounding weird isn't a reason to think you're scum?!!

[Ampersand]

vote Ampersand

The reads aren't consistent all the way through. Im getting pressure from them yet no vote, because they don't want me voted for.

Unvote Vote Ampersand

God I hope this is right cause if it's wrong it gets me lynched for the loss tomorrow

NO NO NO NO NO

Are either you reading the response I've been writing to Poro's case? I'm writing more but OMG just why are you doing this now.

Have I not been clear that the reason I'm reluctant to lynch Poro today is because he's claimed Tracker, and I think the correct play is to wait until Tomorrow?

This is dreadful, dreadful dreadful. Like just so bad.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

How is this not a reason? PoE and you sounding weird isn't a reason to think you're scum?!!

I mean it's things like this and the stats. How the hell do I respond to it. I can't. It's there as a thing that I can't push back on, I cannot defend myself, I can't say you are wrong or anything.

Also, I don't know why I need to. You have consistently with me gone "That's scummy, but he's town." Which is weird when others are ready to vote for me quite easily.

The stats thing: all you needed to do was say 'no this is meaningless because the roles in this game are assigned randomly and I'm town here'!!!! And then play to match that.

I don't think I've ever said 'that's scummy but he's town'. I've said 'that's scummy but I have reservations', or 'that's scummy but I don't want to lynch him because of the claim' or, at certain points, 'on balance, I don't think he is scum'.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

CDB would not vote [CDB/Nexus/Ampersand] would vote [Tammy/Prozac/Elmo/Shanba]
Ampersand would not vote [Ampersand/CDB/Elmo/Nexus] would vote [Shanba/Prozac/Tammy]
Shanba would not vote [Shanba/CDB/Nexus] would vote [Prozac/Ampersand/Elmo/Tammy]
Nexus would not vote [Nexus/CDB/Tammy/Elmo] would vote [Shanba/Ampersand/Prozac]~
Prozac would note vote [Prozac/CDB/Nexus/Tammy] would vote [Ampersand/Shanba/Elmo]

Prozac 4
Shanba 4
Tammy 3
Elmo 3
Ampersand 3

Looks like our best chance of getting a lynch with which we can live is on Prozac or Shanba. Of the two, Shanba gives me much townier vibes Today. I prefer the Prozac vote.

MASSCLAIM tomorrow, or the possibility of a Poro-nightkill are likely to confirm Poro as town if he is. Shanba might be town, but vibes is not enough for me. PoE says he's the best lynch, in my opinion.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Post 36, considering the votes on me, I'm placed in the town pile. Scum Shanba and inspie haven't even been mentioned by them yet. I mean granted this is all on page 2 yet, but its all fairly inconsistent. Especially since Post 36 town read CDB is suddenly not in their next post.

CES' response to 36: 'there's nothing wrong with that. it's fun [read: useful?] to push wagons on people you think are town'
The inconsistency between 36 and the post directly after it: The first post is CES, the second is me. We had different reads on CDB at that point, and I'm not interested in hiding my own thoughts just because I'm in a hydra. You can usually tell who is who because I do my best to sign all my posts, and CES doesn't.

I mean, in the future cause it won't happen now, someone look at the evolution of their reads, it simply isn't there! I mean AV is whom Im looking at just now.

Looking back, you might be right that I didn't say everything that I was thinking around the time that I switched from AVox being null to AVox being scum. But I did explain at least part of it in 128: AVox's vote on you seemed really fake, and made me think he could be scum with you, or could be scum anyway.

Also 125 where I questioned him about scumreading me for 'tryharding' is because I specifically think that is a towntell in my case, and was surprised that he would consider it a scumtell. In retrospect, obviously he had no idea, but at the time, the fact that he was using that as a scumtell on me was bogus.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

PATRICK votecount please?

[Ampersand]

We have an hour, Prozac, not five minutes

Patrick said deadline at 8pm I think

[Ampersand]

Oh okay apparently he said 8pm GMT and we're on BST. Well it depends whether Patrick is the kind of person who says GMT when he actually means 'the time in Britain right now', which is what I would assume the deadline to be.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I make it just under 3 hours now until deadline.

Okay actually maybe it is 9 pm then.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yes Patrick says on Skype it is 9 pm deadline.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

fenchurch - thoughts?

Still haven't gotten as far as re-reading Tammy's replace in yet. Would prefer not to lynch Tammy without giving her a chance to claim. Even if Tammy is scum she's gotta be scum

with

someone, and that somebody could be Shanba.

Where are you with Shanba, Nexus? You share CDB's view that he's seemed especially townie today - more town than most other players?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I still can't shake the fact that I consider the AV wagon a bit of a counter-wagon to Poro - he's been run up AGAIN today and ARGH

I'm confused by this, why does it make you bothered about Poro being run up? Surely the counter-wagon to a lynched townie stands a reasonable chance of being scum, or at least, the fact that he was a counterwagon doesn't make him more likely to be town.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm still re-reading Shanba, Tammy, trying to find some kind of absolution one way or another.

CDB - sorry if you've already said, but what's your read on Elmo?

If Tammy is scum, who do you think she's most likely scum with?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh, well there's that then. I dearly hope this is a scum lynch. Dearly!

Is 'bah' a confession?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Thoughts in case of death and assuming Shanba-scumflip.

I would still consider Poro a possible buddy, assuming he is still alive and we're dead, but we hope this will become apparent with massclaim. I think some of the Shanba-Poro interactions and crossvotes/not-votes have been indicative of a scumteam.

If not Poro, then perhaps Tammy or Elmo. Will do some quick re-reading and see if I can work out either way.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm town fwiw. Sorry.

Oh

[Ampersand]

Closing thoughts: I don't think I played this game very well, but honestly I am distrustful of anyone who HAS reads this game. Like, still.

But what do you think we should be doing then? Just fumbling around random-voting?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Massclaim?

Nominate Tammy to start.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

We'd prefer Tammy to go first, because our claim isn't going tochange no matter what she claims, but hers might change dependent on ours.

We'll claim first only if you all would rather lynch us otherwise. We should see what Tammy says too. She might be happy to go first.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

…

- Fen

[Ampersand]

Nexus has pretty explicitly claimed VT already, so we'll just skip that and go to our claim. I was expecting some sort of meaningful town power somewhere, so this is a bit disappointing but I guess at least with us going last, scum didn't get to take advantage of that.

We are a Tourist.

On N1 we targetted Porochaz and on N2 we targetted ChannelDelibird. Our thinking was that 1) we wanted to, basically, not get tracked to the nightkill and 2) try to hit scum in case they happened to be a Mafia Reflexive Doctor because that seems like the most obvious interaction to actually be in the game. (On N1 we just picked the most suspicious person; on N2 we picked between CDb and Nexus since they'd both done something to indicate they weren't PRs.)

Although Tourist is not the most obviously useful role, I still think that our role does clearly need to be town from a balance perspective - my guess for the set-up right now is Tracker+Tourist+Mason vs. Mafia Reflexive Doctor which is like a weaker Tracker-Doctor set-up with the addition of 2 roles that can be weakly confirmed (Tourist by the Tracker and Mason by being in a non-Werewolf set-up). I'd rather have had balance clear someone else instead, but this will have to do for now.

(I might be biased in favour of Mafia Reflexive Doctors, admittedly; a Werewolf Gravedigger would also work as some extra town power but that set-up would really rely on the Tracker. If there is a Mafia Reflexive Doctor, that implicates Channel slightly for convoluted reasons but I think I'm the only one that will care about that so we'll just take that and the Tracker innocent and pretend neither exist and just look purely at behaviour.)

Now, let's find some scum. Personally I'm currently thinking Tammy > CDb > Elmo > Nexus but since we do need to find both scum, I think my first order of business will to read back and see which of {Tammy-CDb, Tammy-Elmo, CDb-Elmo} I find the most plausible scum team.

[Ampersand]

What did you expect from Tammy?

You and Nexus had both claimed VT or non-active roles. Tammy is perhaps the least familiar with the Greater Idea deck and with Patrick as a mod. She seemed like the best to push to go first as we figured Tammy-scum might be most likely to either claim something weird (that wouldn't fit well in the game) in anticipation of having to counter us, or to react in some way to the added pressure; or conversely, that Tammy-town making a claim that fitted really well would be a lot more believable. I also expected her to respond a bit more quickly than Elmo would (she was posting elsewhere on site), but that turned out to be wrong.

The fact that she was confident that we 'didn't have anything on her' made me think she's slightly more likely town, although CES is wondering if that is really the way she would respond if she is town. He thinks that her assumption that that's what we were doing could be more likely to come from a scum mindset. I'm still considering.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Other somewhat irrelevant facts about our role:

My inevitable thought upon first drawing this was that maybe it meant there was a Black Goo in the game, but then I realised that would be madness in a 9 player closed. We talked about crumbing at the start of D1 but I thought any direct mentions of Black Goos or PGO-cops would be too obvious. Wester suggesting something about our having 'four-eyes' between us, a reference to Twoflower, the Discworld character who wears glasses and is a tourist, but I a) thought this was too stretchy to be worthwhile, and b) never actually found the right opportunity to say it. (There was one point on D1 I remember lying in bed and thinking of the post I could write that it would fit into, but it didn't seem worth getting up to do it, and by next morning the moment had passed.)

Since the start of Day 2, I've had to hide the fact that I was half-hoping we'd be the one to die Night 1, which I thought was reasonably likely given that so many people had a purported town-read on us throughout D1. I didn't read the game overnight in part because this seemed so likely. I also felt bad for actually half-wanting to die in this game, because I've been struggling so much to get firm reads on people. I guess that's how it goes; you don't die when you are struggling and wouldn't mind no longer having an influence in the game; whereas when you have the game figured out and strong suspicions on who the scum are, they will kill you and then you have no way to control over the win.

But I didn't want to say that I'd been hoping we'd die because that basically confirms that we don't have a useful role. I don't know if I am ever as aware of this as a VT, but as a (useless) power role I've been constantly aware of trying not to make it obvious that we are useless.

My one crumb was the mention of 'reflexive doctor' in 278. I had originally added two other passive/negative roles in here (ninja, godfather) but I took them out to deliberately focus on the reflexive doctor, which had been our 'holy grail quest' in our night actions.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Thoughts from around Poro's claim:

One of the reasons I jumped to assuming Poro's claim was Town is because Town Tracker + Tourist just felt like a natural and likely combination to me. Then Wester pointed out that a Mafia Tracker and Tourist also worked well because if the tracker followed the tourist they might mistake them for a real power role and kill them, thus giving the tourist some actual value. I initially thought this was weird and a bit swingy (relies on a specific interaction), but I came around and it was one factor that influenced my conclusions from re-read at the end of Day 1, that Poro might still be scum.

After Poro got killed and flipped Town I was really expecting there to be some other town power role in the game, and am still a bit surprised that there isn't.

My 'plan' in 300 was pretty much entirely:
a) try and look like a protective role who would prevent a kill on Poro, and thus get killed and not have to worry about the game any more;
b) boost morale, avoid looking hopeless;
c) exciting thoughts about our night actions in relation to the tracker, as follows:

At first we thought we would Visit Poro again on Night 2. This seemed quite neat, because the only way he would get a result on us targeting him is if he had't die, which would pretty much confirm us as town to him as best as I could tell (no scum role would have reason to target a claimed Tracker and have them still get a result). And even if he was a scum Tracker, we would know he had the Tracker action at least. (And if he wasn't a Tracker, yet claimed to have targeted us, we would find out he was lying!)

Later we came up with two flaws in this plan:
a) the possibility of there being two Town Trackers in the game;
b) the possibility of a bodyguard protection on Poro, whereby he would still see us target either him or the kill.

Hence we settled on CDB in the end instead.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Why is Nexus so town to you that he's not in your plausible scumteams?

Personally, I haven't ruled out any teams yet. At lunchtime Today we were still expecting that Elmo might claim a role that would confirm him as town. CES decided if that were so then a Nexus-Tammy scumteam didn't make sense because then he believes that CDB-town would not be so wildly wrong as to have a super strong-town-read on scum-Nexus. I reminded him that you had a fairly strong town-read on Titus in the recent Team Mafia game. CES said that was different as you don't have as much experience with Titus as with Nexus.

I'm still pretty unsure who the scum are now, I was hoping massclaim would clear someone, and now I'm going to have to do some pros and cons analysis I think.

Oh yeah, my other (pointless) reaction that I've had to hold in until after massclaim: I'm sorry we incorrectly lynched Shanba yesterday, but hey, at least we didn't lynch Poro instead.

I'm also a little glad that Poro is dead and thus confirmed so that I didn't have to try and work out if his crappy case on us Yesterday was coming from misguided town or actual scum.

Nexus - since you still seem skeptical about us, please can I ask that you tell me why, if you can come up with reasons? Yesterday Poro pointed out that our thought trajectory on AVox on Day 1 was not clear. If anyone had ever asked us about this, I would have been happy to go into more detail, but nobody did so I'm not especially aware of what is or isn't missing from my posts. I feel this is potentially even more of an issue in a hydra, where we talk about the game a lot, which makes it harder for me to remember what I have mentioned in the thread, and what I have simply discussed with CES.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Why do we think we have a reflexive doctor again? I must've missed something.

Because [Tracker + Mason + Tourist] in a 9 player game seems like not enough town power. Tracker is the only clearly useful role, the other two are a bit ambiguous and situation dependent. CES points out that the Tracker + Doctor newbie setup has a town-winrate of less than 50%.

If there is also a Mafia Reflexive Doctor, that interact with both the Tracker and the Tourist to give the town some additional power, and a mafia scumteam makes the solo Mason a more useful role.

[Ampersand]

Woops that was me.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today. Like I said yesterday, I need to re-read properly - my head isn't really in a good place at the minute so the re-read keeps falling further and further down my list of priorities.

Nexus - at this point in the game you mentioned some suspicion of CDB for heavily townreading you. Yet when I questioned CDB more about his townread of you (trying to discern both his and your own alignment), you thought I was scummy for it.

And, at the end of the day you were quite willing to vote CDB's proposed lynch choice of Tammy, despite previously saying that lynching the claimed VT (Shanba) seemed the best choice, and when I asked you about your read on Shanba, you said you hadn't looked into him/didn't really have an opinion.

So… what is your current read on CDB, and what has been your progression on CDB throughout the game.

Also I'd still quite like for you to explain this statement:

I still can't shake the fact that I consider the AV wagon a bit of a counter-wagon to Poro - he's been run up AGAIN today and ARGH

I'm confused by this, why does it make you bothered about Poro being run up? Surely the counter-wagon to a lynched townie stands a reasonable chance of being scum, or at least, the fact that he was a counterwagon doesn't make him more likely to be town.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

For info, my reads list right now:

most scummy

CDB = Elmo = Nexus = Tammy

most town

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I mean it's making me more convinced he's scum but i'm also concerned that i'm being over paranoid

Literally answered that point two posts later?

I don't fully get the explanation then? Unless:

The first bit of the sentence is you saying that you thought Poro

was

scum, on account of him was the counterwagon to AV on D1. But then 'argh' bit is because you think the first bit might be just 'paranoia'?

Is that it?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh if we're in the middle of a mass claim I should probably hold off on thoughts, huh?

Tammy you implied here that maybe you already had some thoughts you were holding back? What were they?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Basically I'm paranoid about everything. I'm paranoid about the fact you're still alive. I'm paranoid about the fact CDB is still hard townreading me, although the fact he's kept it up to today makes me slightly less paranoid.

I need to do a genuine, honest to god re-read, and I will do it on Saturday.

I feel like your views for the past two Days have had very little link to anything that's actually been happening in the game. I've posted a whole bunch since our claim; does none of that have any bearing on your opinion of us? I'm hoping that these kind of insights will come with your promised catchup.

Your play D2 & D3 reminds me a little of SleepyKrew in your recent Team Mafia Mini Normal. Would you say this is a reasonable comparison?

CDB - you've said that from your point of view now, the scumteam is Tammy-Elmo. What are your thoughts on that? Can you find anything to convince the rest of us?

Elmo - where are you at right now?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Do you think you procrastinate more as scum or as town?

[Ampersand]

I'm in the middle of rereading the game to reconnect myself and will have some thoughts/questions posted tonight when I get back home.

But real quick - fen church from your reads list I'm gathering that you basically have everyone at the same level of towniness/suspicion? Does ces have a similar view?

I had another quick question and now I can't remember it. Maybe it will come back to me.

Yes - that's pretty much where I am. Everyone has done some things that are a bit town but nothing super town, so I don't have any clear front runners. I've been finding this game pretty difficult. It's quite a jarring compared to how I found Team Mafia, although I suppose it's not that different from some other previous games (e.g. Wicked, Scumdon, Open 274).

CES described his viewpoint below, I don't think much has changed. It's partly based on CDB's strong townread on Nexus: either CDB is town (in which case CES puts some faith in his read being correct) or CDB is scum (in which case there is one less scum card for Nexus to have). In addition, CES' own read on Nexus is leaning town.

Now, let's find some scum. Personally I'm currently thinking Tammy > CDb > Elmo > Nexus but since we do need to find both scum, I think my first order of business will to read back and see which of {Tammy-CDb, Tammy-Elmo, CDb-Elmo} I find the most plausible scum team.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh but fenchurch while you're around, is there a reason you pointed out that the push on Prozac was ces and you didn't have a strong read on him? You're very reflective on your thoughts and there's not a lot of indication that you weren't considering him as scum before that and in the end of day posts did have him listed as one of your biggest end of day suspects.

I feel like I might be getting hung up on something tiny here but it's rattling.

Err I mean mainly I just post the things that occur to me, especially if I think it will be of value to other players in understanding my thoughts and determining my alignment. I don't know if I would have jumped so quickly to feeling that Poro was town just because of a claim, if I'd had him as super strong scum before, so it seemed worthwhile to say that.

I definitely had him towards scum going into Night, and I was happy to target him Night 1 for that reason (we were generally aiming towards targeting scum, for multiple reasons). But like I've said, none of my reads have been that strong this game, although I haven't been so keen to say this openly before as I think it is generally anti-town.

In particular as well, the hito-kill gave me second thoughts about who was scum and who was town, so at the start of the D2 my reads were shaken a bit from what they were before.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I don't understand the mafia reflexive doctor discussion. From my understanding they protect whoever targets them, so if cdb was this role and prozac targetted him, then cdb would have automatically protected him? So, if someone targetted Prozac for the kill then Prozac would have been saved and come mass claim time cdb would have been caught as that role because there are no protectives?

Is my understanding correct? Since that didn't happen is there any bearing on the game or figuring out the game now beyond if we mislynch today, it actually has the potential to give us another day?

Yes your understanding is correct, and no it doesn't have any significant bearing on the game that I am aware of. The main uses I can think of for bringing it up are:
a) it had some influence in our night actions
b) just generally sharing information that might be true
c) scum might react oddly

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'd especially like it if Elmo and CDb posted a bit more.

I briefly reread Primate and it didn't help much, the only thing I remember about forum Primate is he had an odd/lurky playstyle..

Do you remember what prompted you to re-read Primate, Elmo?

[Ampersand]

That last Elmopost makes me feel much better.

Currently leaning towards CDB-Tammy as the scum team, partly because I think Elmo & Nexus look townier than those two and partly because the interactions from Tammy's slot (Primate pushing CDb weakly and then quickly letting it go when he could and Tammy seemed to be half-town reading CDb in #268 and #270 just based on association more than anything).

That would mean hito was probably killed moreso over his suspicion of Primate than anything else (Fenchurch pointed out to me that it's unlikely scum were worried about protective roles if they had a reflexive doctor) but that seems plausible enough to me - we weren't pushing either of them and I got the impression CDb wasn't that active over night.

[Ampersand]

Wasn't expecting a vote that soon.

I'm with CES, for what it's worth. Thinking back I think both CDB and Tammy-Primate's play has been more within the parameters of their respective scum games, than Nexus or Elmo.

I think CDB has been lacking in emotional reactions throughout the game that I would expect from him as town. Tammy-Primate is closer to null, but I think she would look townier as town. I think Nexus and Elmo have both done things that are more than I would expect from them as scum - higher engagement, more unusual insights into the game. I've been bothered about Nexus because of the hito-kill, and because he's been significantly wrong in some things (e.g. continued 'paranoia' on us, failure to explain himself) but the more I think on that, I think I've seen plenty of townies play this way and have incorrect reads on me in forum games (Poro being a recent example), so these things are probably not alignment indicative.

- Fenchurch

PS: Hi Bookitty!

[Ampersand]

Assuming we lynch Tammyscum, you're almost certainly dead Tomorrow. I need you to get past the paranoia and actually seriously read me before the end of the Day.

CDB, what makes you say that Nexus would be the kill tonight? Also, why are you only appealing to Nexus here and nobody else?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I forgot to say, in conjunction with my thought that Nexus' willingness to scumread us doesn't make him scum himself, I think that CDB's townread on us might be another indicator of him as scum.

If he is in a situation where he basically gets to 'choose' his reads, I can imagine him opting for townreads on both us and Nexus, because I think we would both rail against it quite hard if he was incorrect, and that would make for a more difficult game for him. Townreading the both of us feels like the 'safe' play.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Bleh. I don't feel at all like having to deal with this kind of stuff at this point in the game.

Maybe you can take a look at Wicked Mafia; some people had the same sort of reaction to us there. Or you can just consider that this town's going to have more than just a Tracker and an unconfirmable Mason in terms of power roles? I acknowledge Tourist doesn't exactly look like the most useful role but I can't really help the fact that Patrick made a set-up with more subtle town power; I did briefly consider the idea of taking advantage of the fact we got to claim last and fake claiming something more powerful to make the argument more straightforward although I don't think Fen would've let me and it could've been a problem if there is indeed a Mafia Reflexive Doctor and we lynch them first. But there's no way that as scum I would willingly claim Tourist and invoke all that subtle stuff, speculating on the existence of Mafia Reflexive Doctors and such.

[Ampersand]

Oh Bookitty. I haven't played with you before, and CES says he has only once, a year ago, and you were scum. So I don't know why, but I just assumed that you would easily see us as being very readable and obviously town. Maybe because I generally do get town-read when I'm town, even from unfamiliar players, or at the least I rarely get called 'the scummiest'.

Ampersand - Easily the scummiest, imo. A lot of things feel faked or forced. I do not like at all.

So then. This isn't something I'm sure I'll be able to answer to, because if you think I sound 'fake' when I'm just playing natural and honest and open, then I'm not sure what else I can do, but I'll try. Can you give some examples, please?

Overall, your reads list is that you lean town on Nexus and CDB, you find us scummy, and you think Tammy is scum too because of 'connections'. Can you explain that last part a bit more? What are these 'connections' that you have made?

CES would also like you to answer to his argument about the balance of the game and the lack of town power.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

This is one of my town!ping posts from CDB.

Nexus - this is the same post of CDB's that I found most townie, and for a significant portion of the game, my townread on him was riding largely on that post. But someone here is scum, and comparatively, I don't think it's a post he'd find too hard to fake. There are plenty of F2F games where he's been run up at the start and diffused the wagon in a similar way, I'm pretty sure as both scum and town, and most of his defence (feeling awkward, not having much else to comment on so early in the game) are true regardless of his alignment.

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

If this is directed at me, I don't know. My experience with her is seriously limited, sorry.

I'd assume it's a question for anyone.

I don't have much experience playing with Tammy either, but I was following Team Mafia: White Flag at the point when she swapped in, and I found her fairly readable as town there. I would say she contributed more in the way of reads and discussion than she has here. That's part of my reason for having Tammy/Primate as the second mafia now.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Goddammit.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

i hadn't realised how little primate had contributed until i looked at his iso.

I had realised. But, I don't think he contributed all that much in the first or second UK invitationals, and he was town in both, so I gave him a bit of pass on activity. And I found his post 101 pretty townie - although I did wonder if him finding the game stressful was a scumtell, but I reckoned he would have been more guarded about his feelings as scum.

Well, lack of quickhammer means at least one out of CDB and Tammy is scum, so I'm glad we have that much right, at any rate.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Which one would you put your money on right now?

Right now, Tammy. She's only made one post since the vote and it was pretty half-hearted, so I now suspect she's annoyed at having replaced into a scum slot and can't find the energy to expend on a losing cause. Sorry Tammy. Also I looked back at Primate's iso after you posted and it was actually worse than I had remembered, so you had a good point there. Although at the time it was definitely offset for me by the previous games that I already mentioned, and by everyone else also providing less content and activity than I would expect from them as well.

That said, I'm still inclined to think it's CDB+Tammy. CDB didn't give any explanation for why he felt ready to place a vote then in lylo, nor why he chose Tammy over Elmo/Bookitty. It looks to me like it came in response to CES' 510 singling CDB-Tammy as the scumteam. CDB-scum in that position has to take some action to counter that, otherwise the link will just become more obvious, so I think that's what prompted his vote on Tammy.

But lastly, neither of these are reads I would choose to bet on (money/reputation). I asked CDB earlier in the game how sure he was of his reads, I was curious because he was acting a lot more certain than I am, and he reinforced that with his answer.

(I sometimes plan to keep a list of the reads I have conviction in, prior to the relevant flips, to check my accuracy rate. I don't have conviction in every read I ever make but I think there is still something to be said for whether I am right when I think I'm right. This game, I haven't yet had any reads I would add to that list...)

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

What you say does sound reasonable, and you may be telling the truth, but:
a) that still doesnt explain exactly what prompted the vote, ie why not a bit earlier, why not a bit later? Presumably something happened at that point in the game which made you feel 'this is the right thing to do now' and your lack of commentary accompanying the vote makes me think it might be the thing I said.
b) I know I've felt that exact pressure in F2F before: 'someone's just linked me with my buddy; I'd better vote my buddy to show its not true', without me having a good explanation for that vote.
C) you said afterwards that you 'haven't ruled out Ampersand as scum', but 'don't see a team that doesn't include Tammy'. Why did you still see us as a possible partner to Tammy but not to Elmo?

-Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

CDB, I'm pretty sure you also said that Elmo's replace out post seemed pretty town.

Who do you think has looked more town this game out of you and Elmo?

What have you done that you think you wouldn't have done as scum?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Thanks for expanding your thoughts.

On the tourist claim: what do you see as weird about us wanting to avoid targeting the kill? You wouldn't have done the same thing?

CES points out to me that it might have come across as if we overthought the importance of who we targeted. I can see how this might be the case, because I like to provide thorough explanations for any role-related actions, since I feel it will make it clearer that the claim isn't a lie.

Out of interest, what, in your opinion, made Poro obv-town?

---

On the accountability of hydras: I disagree. If one head blames the other, then the other should still answer for it! I'd say your complaint would apply more to replacements, if anything. Did you bring this up because it is something you feel we've done, and if so, where?

If it helps, you should be able to tell which one of us has made a given post, since I always sign (barring a couple of short, rushed posts where I forgot) and CES doesn't.

---

On my expecting being town-read: I do agree with you that hydras are generally harder to read. But nevertheless, I don't think anyone has misread us quite so firmly before, or for reasons I find so hard to relate to. We're usually seen as 'town with some caveats', or maybe 'scummy with town flashes' at worst.

---

On the possibility of multiple factions: I barely know where to begin here, but I highly, highly doubt Patrick would put two scum factions in a 9-player game. That would mean either no grouped-scum (which makes the game barely mafia), or 3+ scum, in which case town depend on a crosskill to have a chance of a winning, a factor which is out of their hands. If the roles had been selected at random from the deck then multiple factions would be likely, but this was a mod-chosen setup, and Patrick is a sensible guy.

I'm also curious what made you think of this, and what kind of second scum faction you were imagining?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Also if the claim is what bothered you, you might want to check my claim posts here in Scumdon and UK 2014.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Well, I wish you had been here earlier then, to help with Poro. I find him very difficult to read, both on forums and F2F. I don't know any particular indicators of his town or scum game, and I rarely get a strong (or correct) gut feel on him, in part because I think he and I often have different thought processes and methods. Again, you can refer to the previous games I've linked if it helps you believe me (Scumdon I remember going into N2 convinced it was either CDB or Poro).

Have you looked at any of those games or links yet? I'm not saying you have to, because I know just how dull meta-trawling can be, but I do think it might help you get a correct read on us, if you're town.

Are you aware that CES and I live together? We talk about the game all the time, so it's unlikely that we'd ever need to discuss our reads or disagreements actively in the thread. At the start of D2, CES still felt Poro was scummiest, and I didn't have a strong feelings at that time (I mainly had a bunch of jumbled thoughts from the hito-kill, which I posted), so I was happy for him to take the lead on that.

Patrick confirming that the scum could be any faction is not an indication that we have multiple factions. We've played quite a lot of F2F games built this way (someone choosing a selection of cards from the deck that they think make for a good setup) and by far the majority, if not all, contain a single scum-group - because that makes for a good, balanced, setup. It's just that we don't know (without a flip) what that scum group are.

There's some parts of your reasoning that I can't quite follow so will have to come back to when I'm not at work. But yes, you are wrong in that we're not scum, with or without anyone else.

-Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

It's my opinion that I'm decidedly not scumhunty when I'm scum. So failing to be scumhunty, makes me aware that I might as well be scum. Since I was having that thought process this game as town, I could imagine CDB-town having the same one.

This made me think that you might be scum and that CDB might be town. (This started off my townread for CDB, actually. I was badly burned by him in a previous game, so I was and am wary, but this was the start for it.) Basically, this defense is a nondefense. It depends completely on CDB being lynched and flipping town to work -- which argues that you know that he would flip town.

It wasn't a defense. It's a correction for a piece of post 77 talking about CDb.

As for the multiball spec, I have read this entire game more recently than you, I suspect, and I remembered Patrick suggesting a wide range of possible scum types that could be in this game. The only reason that this worries me is that if we have single scums, making connections is crap and won't work.

The thing is just that there is no reason Patrick would subject us to a 7-1-1 set-up when he can just do a 7-2 set-up. Especially a 7-1-1 set-up with no apparent way of any kills being prevented so that the most likely outcome is that we have three lynches to nab two scum.

[Ampersand]

It's my opinion that I'm decidedly not scumhunty when I'm scum. So failing to be scumhunty, makes me aware that I might as well be scum. Since I was having that thought process this game as town, I could imagine CDB-town having the same one.

This made me think that you might be scum and that CDB might be town. (This started off my townread for CDB, actually. I was badly burned by him in a previous game, so I was and am wary, but this was the start for it.) Basically, this defense is a nondefense. It depends completely on CDB being lynched and flipping town to work -- which argues that you know that he would flip town.

Okay so, CES has already commented on this, but it looks like you were misunderstanding what I was saying here (hence my confusion when I read your post earlier). I wasn't defending myself, I was saying that I thought CDB might be town because he was having a similar thought process that I was. It's not me saying "I'm town because CDB is", it was "I think CDB might be town because I am".

The only reason that this worries me is that if we have single scums, making connections is crap and won't work.

And that's part of why Patrick wouldn't have designed the game this way. Also, where are the missing kills? Or if one of the scum is not a killing faction (so, lyncher or cult), how do you expect town to have a shot at winning?!

Please can someone else come and back us up on this, so Bookitty doesn't think we're just trying to hoodwink her. CDB, Nexus, do either of you think there's any likelihood we have multiple scum factions in this game?

And the slide into scumreading Porochaz is not explained.

Well my explanation is in 338, where I refer to Nexus' 89. And then a bit more in 348. Basically it seemed to me that Poro had spent most of the game giving excuses for himself, and had not actually done a lot of scumhunting.

Also: in the run-up to deadline I was typing posts pretty much continuously and as fast as I could - I remember having to submit that preemptively in order to respond to the votes on us - so it's possible I would have explained more if it hadn't been a stupid deadline rush to ensure that we even actually lynched someone at all.

Also: I wasn't even interested in actually lynching Poro at that stage, because of his claim. I just wanted to get some of my re-read thoughts out, in case we died. And seriously, why are you giving me a hard time for scumreading Poro there, yet you give CDB a pass even though he actually tried to

lynch

Poro just a few posts later.

Ugh this game. It seems churlish to say so, but looking back through my posts, I actually do think I've been pretty obviously town, and I can't understand why other people don't see that.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Mm... I regret posting that last bit. It is rude to expect to be easily perceived one way or another by other people, especially in a game such as mafia. Sorry - I don't want to make the game un-fun for other people.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Also I want to declare that we are planning to vote Tammy soon.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

a scum read on ces - that was correct.

I don't know if this was just a typo, but you do know this was incorrect, right? CES was town in Team Mafia.

I'll write more when I'm actually awake.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I would argue that all of us (except CES) are fairly cautious players, so quickhammers are always unlikely.

you think this applies even in lylo?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

So, something I should have done last night was explain why we've come round to the idea of voting Tammy over CDB.

a) A large portion of Tammy's content have been non-game-related stuff, e.g. long explanations about why she hasn't been able to post. Even in her last post she spends more time talking about team mafia than this game.

b)

As I said in a post I began writing but it looks like I didn't submit,

after Nexus made that comment about Primate's iso, I did look back and it actually was worse than I remembered, and worse in comparison to the other games I mentioned.

c) Tammy's reaction to being voted has been pretty lackluster. As town I would expect her to be more outraged at an incorrect vote on her in lylo. I think her defeatism here (e.g. in the last post, 'I'm not sure what I can do to sway you') is more likely indicative of Tammy as scum. As town, I think she would have more confidence in her ability to convince people of that.

d) CDB's response in 545 seemed fair, and although I still have some reservations, I acknowledge that it could come from him as town. CDB's reasons in 525 for trying to convince Nexus still don't make logical sense to me (the reads of dead townies aren't always right. If he expects Nexus to die, surely better to convince one of us) but at the same time, I don't know if it really makes sense for him to do that as scum (setting Nexus up as the most obvious kill seems like a bad move if CDB would then benefit from not killing him).

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

See I'm in a damned if I do damned if I don't situation here.

YOU compared my play to team mafia. That's the only reason I tried to explain myself about team mafia. It's disingenuous as fuck for you to claim that you're comparing my play to there and how you read me as town sooooooo much easier than here because of how I presented my thoughts, and then when I tell you why it's not fair for you to make that comparison, you go oh look she talked too much about team mafia.

It's not about that you talked too much about team mafia in absolute terms; it's that there is a recurring pattern of where you seem to talk more freely about things that aren't this game. I mean, I have no clue what your opinion on Bookitty or Nexus is.

You're giving the game to CDB because he's your friend; there's not much I can do about that. And hey I completely understand, I'd want to believe my friend over someone I barely know too, but there's really not a whole lot that I can do when everyone wants to lynch me for lame reasons and the game ends with my lynch. If it had happened yesterday then at least I could put something out there that would help with solving the game, but I can't here. Maybe my play has been shit here, maybe it's been my fault. I don't know. I just don't know what else to do.

I don't get how you can accuse us of giving the game to CDb if at the same time you claim not to be able to give any arguments for CDb being scum. Do you

[Ampersand]

There are times when I am glad to be in a hydra with CES, and that is one. I spent my lunch break trying (and failing) to articulate my thoughts to Tammy's post, and then I came home and they were already written, better than I could have done.

In case you're wondering, you can ignore the trailing 'Do you' at the end; it was the start of an unnecessary sentence which just reiterated the previous one.

CDB needs to check in, he's been absent for over 2 days. I'd like to hear more from Bookitty too.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I've just noticed the deadline is July 28th. Where the hell is everybody. I had hoped for some new posts overnight. I hate quiet lylos, it reminds me of my second game, where the scum was not under any suspicion, and he just sat around twiddling his thumbs until us townies voted each other. Is that what's happening here? If anyone has anything to say before we vote Tammy, they should do it very soon.

Patrick, please prod CDB.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yayyyy it makes me so happy to hear from both of you again.

CDB I did leave you some questions in 548, if you wouldn't mind answering?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Also these last few posts leave me still feeling comfortable with this vote.

VOTE: Tammy

And, we're also leaning towards Bookitty as the partner now instead of CDB.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

CDB, I'm not sure if it's

as

relevant now, but the other thing I was hoping you'd comment on was the multi-factions thing.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Just to confirm that I agree with your decision to hammer on Tuesday and re-read first.

I was also going to say I'm happy that it looks like we have indeed finally voted scum at least, since there hasn't been a quickhammer and I'm assuming that Bookitty has at least looked at the game since last night even if she hasn't actually posted. But looking at her onsite activity and what she said about internet outage, that might not be true.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Ampersand should unvote if they're town before boo kitty can quick hammer.

It doesn't make any sense for ampersand to be voting me and encouraging nexus to take his time reading and not vote until deadline. That's just manipualtive nullshit designed to make it look like they care and are concerned about the game as well.

If they were so convinced I was scum, so as to vote me in lylo, they wouldn't be encouraging for someone to take their time.

Tammy, there are some things you've said that do give me pause and make me want to believe you. But then I find it hard to believe that you'd push shit like this if you were town.

Of course we want to use extra time. Not just for Nexus to re-read, but because we're still trying to parse which of CDB and Bookitty is your scumbuddy. Bookitty has made literally 6 posts in the game. Prior to that we were reading Elmo as more likely town, but the way Bookitty has formed reads and then the way she has (or hasn't) adjusted them in light of new information has made her seem the scummier. I'd very much like to hear more from her though, because I'd rather not be basing so much on so little.

I'm not going to comeback on the rest right now, in case we are in fact wrong and Bookitty just comes in and hammers. If she posts to confirm she isn't doing that, I'll come back to it.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yes. I'm still of the opinion that Tammy is scum, because of the reasons we've given before and because of some of the junk arguments she's pushing now.

But if be a fool if I thought there was no possibility of being wrong. That doesn't mean the right play is not to vote though; at some point in lylo you have to vote, and there is always a risk attached.

It'd just be nice to have the vote confirmed correct (from our POV) before I put more time into explaining the issues with Tammy's recent posts, but I'll do it tonight anyway if I have to. Although CDB appears to already be doing a good job of it.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Well, Bookitty hasn't quickhammered Tammy, and although she hasn't explicitly commented on it, I feel like if we had Bookitty-scum and Tammy-town then she would have made it more of a priority to check the gamestate.

So, let's make a start on this.

Thing 1: The hito-kill

Tammy has put her explanation for why hito was killed in 595. I've been bothered by the hito-kill since the start of D2, but after pursuing it down a blind alley (Shanba) I stopped putting so much weight in it. However, knowing now that Tammy/Primate is scum, I'm guessing this is was the reason:

Spoiler: Ampersand's reads on Primate on Day 1

Scum: Shanba, inspiratieloos
Null: AurorusVox, Elmo
Town: ChannelDelibird, Nexus, Primate, Prozac

Primate - Nullish. Although he seems fairly loose and happy so far, so maybe town.

CDB - prob town
Nexus - prob town, seems legitimate and trying to make things happen
Shanba - prob town, 104 seems good
Primate - prob town, 101 seems honest

I think Elmo and Primate are probably town, but neither of those are strong townreads at the best of times.

Spoiler: hito's reads on Primate on Day 1

AV, Nexus, primate are the worst three offenders, I think. Of those, AV-Nexus makes the most sense holistically.

Also Primate's recent behavior w/r/t his Nexus read and him not hammering AV is strange.

I'd want to dig in to Nexus/Primate regardless of AV flip. Well, I guess because it's virtually guaranteed to be two scum, an AV scumflip helps Primate just in the sense that he can't then be Nexus's scumbuddy, and I think a lot of my uneasy feeling on Primate is the Primate <--> Nexus connection

We were, albeit mildly, townreading Primate pretty consistently, whereas hito had expressed several suspicions on him. So it makes sense that he chose to kill hito instead of us.

---

Thing 2: Tammy's craplogic on us

If they were so convinced I was scum, so as to vote me in lylo, they wouldn't be encouraging for someone to take their time.

CDB has already covered this, but I just don't believe town-Tammy would believe this at all, or that she would continue to ignore the subsequent posts where both I and CDB have reiterated why I am happy to wait.

I am town, and we are about to lose this game because of me and you're criticizing how things look to me when you are voting for me?

It wasn't a criticism, it was an analysis, i.e. I was observing that I think you would only make posts like that as scum. Different things.

---

Thing 3: Tammy and CDB

If anyone's still worried that it might be me and Tammy, this should be the proof against. Bussing is good because you know that you can find things that your buddy has done that are scum-motivated, but Tammy is dredging up things that have no bias towards either possible motivation and trying to paint me as scum for them.

You are confirmed scum, which means your motivation there was scum and was to further a scum win, which you're probably about to get so yay you, good job.

I agree with CDB's summary here of what's wrong with Tammy's case. Especially when she has gone from post 567: "I have no clue who scum is besides cdb and that's only thanks to the fact that I haven't been quick hammered" to a sudden barrage of reachy-posts where apparently CDB is obv-scum.

This exchange does make me think CDB is more likely to be town, as well. His observations just seem more genuine, whereas Tammy's seem forced.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Forgot how much i disliked Ampersand's early posting as well.

Which bits and why?

I don't know why we didn't lynch Primate after this.

For his inactivity and generally lack of contributing anything useful? For saying he found the game stressful? I can't speak for why any of you didn't lynch him for those things, but I've said my reasons in 541. Have you actually looked and compared with his posts in those games? He does come across as townier before but that has been true of most people here, for me.

@Fenchurch - are you always very concerned with deadlines? You mention them more than the average person from what I can tell.

I don't know about 'always', but I am when the game feels especially lethargic, with multiple players receiving multiple prods, and multiple replacements, and each game Day going right up the deadline. Yes.

I would like for lynches to be decided at least a couple of Days before deadline, ideally. I hate the deadline rush, and in my experience, it often results in a bad or at very least an uninformed lynch.

Hito's reads were p. bad, but he does have Primate as a scumread here.

AVox had me/prozac/Ampersand as scum, and Primate as Town.

True, but I would say that lynches are generally going to be less informative for finding scum than the night-kills, since scum have a sole control over the kill, and not the lynch.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

This struck me as a massive overreaction.

This strikes me as a Fenchurch!f2fscum response.

REALLY DON'T LIKE the condescension of the first sentence here. Strikes me as "MERE MORTAL HOW DARE YOU SCUMREAD US"

I feel like all three of these things come down to a very similar sort of thing. This game has been pretty hard in terms of scumhunting on us and if then people suddenly scumread on us for somewhat nebulous reasons, that just adds another layer of things we have to do, adds stress, especially when it's happened shortly before deadline and during LyLo and obviously we're used to being town-read. The essential issue is that we feel the same sort of responsibility for the game that you do and the additional stress of being scumread in these situations is why we've reacted the way we have.

[Ampersand]

I'm a fucking idiot.

I just remembered this contradiction and was about to point it out but I see you got there first.

So I started answering you quote by quote, but mainly Nexus, I feel your scumread on us is based on my finding this game quite difficult, and having scumreads that have fluctuated quite a lot. And I think that is ironic, because I think you've expressed similar feelings and thoughts, and that your scumreads have moved back and forth a lot too.

To answer some of your questions:

No, we don't normally crumb.

Post 382 where I was aghast at Poro's scumread on us is, in my opinion, almost exactly how I react to being falsely accused in F2F game. It's possible that I sometimes react in a similar way as scum, but as town I certainly back up that shock and horror with defence of my actions and thoughts, which I did in 339 342 349 366 393 & 405, and which I would happily have done more of if I had had the time and hadn't also been dealing with simultaneously trying to make sense of the game in the run-up to deadline. I remember thinking at that time that I wished it WAS a face to face game so I could just talk the words out rather than having to write them all up.

To be honest I wish I'd never signed up to play. It's just made me realise just how shit I am at mafia and how much I hate playing it. I feel like I'm going to be responsible for a town!loss if we lose, and I am completely tied up in knots.

a) you're not responsible for a loss if you get it wrong here
b) we all let the game get to 5-player lylo
c) mafia is hard.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

As an aside, I also really don't like the "I want to hear Nexus' thoughts but I'm still going to leave Tammy at L-1" attitude.

I never said 'I want to hear Nexus' thoughts'.

I said 'I want to hear more of what Bookitty says', because I'm still trying to figure out her alignment.

For you it was more that I wanted to give you time to figure the game out and choose correctly, because I'm hoping that you will.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Dammit, sorry, I'm really bad at this accounts business. I even tried to copy one of those onto the hydra, and instead just reposted it as myself instead.

Post 382 where I was aghast at Poro's scumread on us is, in my opinion, almost exactly how I react to being falsely accused in F2F game. It's possible that I sometimes react in a similar way as scum

Just to add, for the record, the reason why I do this as scum is

because

I react that way as town, and not the other way around.

My instinct as scum is to just sigh and think 'oh I guess you're right', but I imagine that if I do that outwardly then people will cotton on.

I still believe that the thing I have trouble faking as scum is actually backing up the disagreement with

reasons

why the accusation is wrong, and I hope you have been reading those bits too.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

So Nexus, reading through Tammy's last batch of posts, do you see nothing wrong in her push on CDB? Or on us? Did none of this page do anything for you? Because for me, this is the first point where the game has actually become clear.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm okay with that. It would have been nice to hear from Bookitty before the lynch but that looks very unlikely now. And we're also out this evening.

Don't worry Nexus. This lynch won't be the end of the game.

P-Edit - what's uh oh?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh, it's already gone half five. Oh.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

He did say 'about' half five.

- Fenchurch

(PS: almost signed this post with my real name )

[Ampersand]

And you asked me why I worry about deadlines...

Well, this is a rather disappointing way to lose the game, if Nexus isn't around to hammer in time. I hope he's okay though.

If this is it, I also gonna put my bet on Tammy-Bookitty as the scumteam. I'm even happy for that to go on my hypothetical list. I haven't re-read Elmo yet, but CDB has seemed pretty-darn-town this last Day. If I'm right, it's not the same as a win, but it's something.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Yayyyy!

Really though, huge thanks to hito, Tammy, Bookitty and Nacho for replacing in, and sorry that the latest three of you got landed with scumslots.

I enjoyed the game... well mainly at the end, when we finally got it figured out. But that is the most important bit and so makes me enjoy the whole thing in retrospect. Sorry for struggling in the beginning bits. Sorry for being kinda arrogant in the way I expect people to townread me. Especially sorry for mislynching Shanba, yet again.

Spoiler: Unofficial dead thread, aka me skyping with Patrick about our N3 action and then the game setup

[28/07/2015 22:59:52] Patrick Gower: Cerys
[28/07/2015 22:59:57] Patrick Gower: "We'll target because we think she is scum. Even though there's no realistic mechanism for that to help us."
[28/07/2015 22:59:57] Fenchurch: hello!
[28/07/2015 23:00:03] Fenchurch: yes what
[28/07/2015 23:00:03] Patrick Gower: spot the problem with this action
[28/07/2015 23:00:07] Fenchurch: oh haha
[28/07/2015 23:00:08] Patrick Gower: =P
[28/07/2015 23:00:09] Fenchurch: is that all it says?
[28/07/2015 23:00:10] Fenchurch: hahaha
[28/07/2015 23:00:11] Fenchurch: well
[28/07/2015 23:00:14] Fenchurch: you can kinda work it out from that
[28/07/2015 23:00:21] Patrick Gower: I can
[28/07/2015 23:00:30] Fenchurch: since CDB and Nexus both go by he
[28/07/2015 23:00:34] Fenchurch: but yes we'll go with Bookitty
[28/07/2015 23:00:40] Fenchurch: we're still trying to work out what the remaining scum is
[28/07/2015 23:00:46] Fenchurch: CES thinks maybe Gravedigger
[28/07/2015 23:01:03] Fenchurch: although even that has only negligible impact
[28/07/2015 23:01:42] Fenchurch: in that the scum don't have as much freedom in choosing who makes the kill as they would normally
[28/07/2015 23:01:51] Fenchurch: i'm just telling you for fun, btw
[28/07/2015 23:01:58] Patrick Gower: i know
[28/07/2015 23:02:06] Fenchurch: i'm also wondering who the nightkill will be
[28/07/2015 23:02:10] Patrick Gower: poor old tammy wasn't thrilled with being scum
[28/07/2015 23:02:17] Fenchurch: no, i felt sorry for her
[28/07/2015 23:02:26] Patrick Gower: should have got mina to do it
[28/07/2015 23:02:36] Patrick Gower: i hear she likes it
[28/07/2015 23:02:37] Fenchurch: I think CES is expecting Nexus
[28/07/2015 23:02:45] Fenchurch: because he is kinda confirmed town
[28/07/2015 23:02:49] Fenchurch: aside from just being read as town
[28/07/2015 23:02:53] Fenchurch: if he had not bothered hammering
[28/07/2015 23:02:59] Fenchurch: it would probably have been a no-lynch and scum autowin
[28/07/2015 23:03:04] Fenchurch: but still
[28/07/2015 23:03:05] Fenchurch: i worry
[28/07/2015 23:03:14] Fenchurch: that the remaining scum will screw with us and leave Nexus alive
[28/07/2015 23:03:20] Fenchurch: to continue his crazy paranoia on us
[28/07/2015 23:03:28] Fenchurch: and i'm hoping they don't
[28/07/2015 23:03:37] Fenchurch: even though we can say that's the reason he's been left alive
[28/07/2015 23:03:47] Fenchurch: he may still think that we planned to say that
[28/07/2015 23:03:49] Fenchurch: i don't know
[28/07/2015 23:03:58] Fenchurch: anyway
[28/07/2015 23:04:03] Fenchurch: at least we lynched scum today. hooray!
[28/07/2015 23:04:06] Patrick Gower: hooray
[28/07/2015 23:04:18] Fenchurch: i'm glad you think so too
[28/07/2015 23:04:26] Fenchurch: CES wrote the PM by the way. i was pretty confused when you messaged me just now
[28/07/2015 23:04:33] Fenchurch: he pointed out that you wouldn't have known which one of us submitted it
[28/07/2015 23:04:36] Patrick Gower: oh ha
[28/07/2015 23:04:47] Patrick Gower: i just assumed it was you
[28/07/2015 23:04:49] Patrick Gower: don't know why
[28/07/2015 23:04:56] Patrick Gower: i think you submitted th others
[28/07/2015 23:05:25] Fenchurch: yeah that's true
[28/07/2015 23:05:38] Fenchurch: i also wrote about eight paragraphs in the second
[28/07/2015 23:05:41] Fenchurch: and said 'darnit' in the first
[28/07/2015 23:05:49] Fenchurch: although actually
[28/07/2015 23:05:49] Patrick Gower: i remember that
[28/07/2015 23:05:59] Fenchurch: reading the N3 pm that CES just submitted
[28/07/2015 23:06:03] Fenchurch: i can imagine writing it a bit like that
[28/07/2015 23:06:10] Fenchurch: so there you go. you're not the only one
[29/07/2015 08:01:56] Fenchurch: patrick it occurred to me, whoever the scum is, you should probably do the thing where you prod each of hte players overnight, to make sure they are active
[29/07/2015 08:02:07] Fenchurch: because it would suck for someone to get confirmed scum or town on activity
[29/07/2015 08:02:17] Patrick Gower: yup
[29/07/2015 08:02:40] Fenchurch: although i don't think you need to do us because we've submitted an action. but if either of the other two players doesn't have an ation
[29/07/2015 08:03:02] Patrick Gower: if you're scum without me knowing
[29/07/2015 08:03:07] Patrick Gower: you should sumbit a kill
[29/07/2015 08:03:17] Fenchurch: aha
[29/07/2015 08:03:27] Fenchurch: you can give us a kill if you like
[29/07/2015 08:03:37] Fenchurch: i'm okay with that
[29/07/2015 08:03:54] Patrick Gower: i'll have a meeting about it today and get back to you
[30/07/2015 22:04:36] Fenchurch: oh! we got dead
[30/07/2015 22:05:02] Fenchurch: that surprises me. i wonder if that actually points a bit towards CDB being scum?
[30/07/2015 22:05:07] Fenchurch: i figured Bookitty would kill CDB
[30/07/2015 22:05:21] Fenchurch: and then try and get Nexus to vote for us
[30/07/2015 22:05:35] Patrick Gower: <_<
[30/07/2015 22:05:42] Fenchurch: is there a dead place?
[30/07/2015 22:06:03] Patrick Gower: I thought the game thread functioned well as a dead thread
[30/07/2015 22:06:19] Fenchurch: ...
[30/07/2015 22:06:38] Patrick Gower: nah there isn't a real one
[30/07/2015 22:07:01] Patrick Gower: I meant that I doubt anyone would be posting in a dead thread
[30/07/2015 22:07:23] Patrick Gower: p much every player aside from youces was only posting in response to prods
[30/07/2015 22:08:00] Fenchurch: hmm. who's dead? shanba, poro, AVox, hito
[30/07/2015 22:08:15] Fenchurch: eh i guess it is possible they have all said as much as they wanted to
[30/07/2015 22:08:20] Fenchurch: oh well i guess this is my dead thread
[30/07/2015 22:08:45] Patrick Gower: shame about bookittys wrist
[30/07/2015 22:10:14] Fenchurch: yeah!
[31/07/2015 18:24:32] Fenchurch: for the record, i still think the scum is Bookitty/Nacho more than I think it's CDB
[31/07/2015 18:24:47] Patrick Gower: AH FENCHURCH
[31/07/2015 18:24:50] Fenchurch: i just find it easier to believe that CDB believes the things that he's saying, than vice versa
[31/07/2015 18:24:52] Fenchurch: aaaah!
[31/07/2015 18:24:53] Fenchurch: what
[31/07/2015 18:24:55] Patrick Gower: erm not intende caps
[31/07/2015 18:25:04] Patrick Gower: yes excellent guess
[31/07/2015 18:25:08] Fenchurch: oh haha
[31/07/2015 18:25:11] Fenchurch: is that it?
[31/07/2015 18:25:17] Fenchurch: you're just telling me?
[31/07/2015 18:25:24] Patrick Gower: its nacho, yes
[31/07/2015 18:25:25] Fenchurch: i was going to continue speculating for the rest of the game
[31/07/2015 18:25:32] Fenchurch: but that's okay, i don't think i was going to change my mind
[31/07/2015 18:25:38] Patrick Gower: no, I doubt it
[31/07/2015 18:26:02] Patrick Gower: just need nexus to hammer and not think too hard
[31/07/2015 18:30:10] Patrick Gower: possibly should have given town more power to work with but I don't feel like town should need too much in 2:7
[31/07/2015 18:30:18] Patrick Gower: i had twin trap in mind
[31/07/2015 18:30:42] Fenchurch: ah, i'm not sure. what are the scum then, just two werewolf goons i guess?
[31/07/2015 18:30:54] Fenchurch: so yes i guess it is pretty much twin trap, i hadn't thought of that
[31/07/2015 18:30:58] Patrick Gower: yeah
[31/07/2015 18:31:05] Fenchurch: no wait, twin trap they have a track immune and watch immune
[31/07/2015 18:31:09] Patrick Gower: scum didn't have daytalk
[31/07/2015 18:31:13] Fenchurch: so the town has less power in twin trap? or maybe not; i’m having trouble figuring it out
[31/07/2015 18:31:15] Fenchurch: ah, i was wondering
[31/07/2015 18:33:37] Patrick Gower: town doesn't have a watcher here, but has a tourist that could be confirmed and i think generally looks credible
[31/07/2015 18:33:47] Patrick Gower: twin trap has two real poweroles that only work half the time