UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)
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Ampersand Goon
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Yarr. Let's give you a chance to prove it. You can start by dismantling the wagon on you.
Vote: ProzacThe ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Yayyyyyyyy!
Nexus is probably scum.
- Fenchurch.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
Hydra of Cogito Ergo Sum and Fenchurch.-
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Okay I believe you. Maybe.
In that case it probably is CDB.
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CDB how do you feel about this game right now?
Porochaz, speaking honestly, do you think the statistics point to you being a good lynch here?
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We can't do it; we're already paired up with ourselves.
If you vote for Prozac, we may be able to set you up with someone.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 34, Primate wrote:Ampersand is town but good.
I think you mean "and", not "but".
Scum: Shanba, inspiratieloos
Null: AurorusVox, Elmo
Town: ChannelDelibird, Nexus, Primate, ProzacThe ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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I still think CDB might be scum for the record.
Also I was confused by Primate's comment but I think I understand it. He thinks we look town but are good enough to be able to look town even if we weren't town? Well if so he is wrong; we only look town if we are town.
Also if we look scummy we are also town. Because we are town.
- FenchurchThe ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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That's not how you dismantle the wagon on you, Prozac.
In post 41, Shanba wrote:How on earth do people have reads at this stage
Ouija boards.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 55, ChannelDelibird wrote:I'm reasonably confident that after a bit of pressure people should realise that I'm town
It hasn't happened yet but I promise I'm keeping my mind open.
inspie might also be scum actually.
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I was going to make a scummy-looking comment about something Fenchurch didn't post because she thought it looked scummy but then I thought that comment looked scummy so I didn't post it.
But yeah, we should probably just lynch insp.
Vote: inspThe ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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At least I'm not trying to get you mislynched this time? That should be helpful.
Primate, you should place a vote.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 59, Shanba wrote:I'm sort of curious as to what the scummy thing was...
Oh I'll just say it now because by the end of the game I'll have forgotten. I was going to say something along the lines of:
'inspi might be scum. But I'm not that confident in the read as I don't know that I can tell his scum-game and town-game apart that well, especially this early.'
Then I decided against that second sentence because:
a) it seemed a bit pointless, basically posting for the sake of posting
b) it kinda weakens my declaration of a scumread on inspi if I then say I can't read him.
I was disappointed in myself that I didn't have more to say at that stage, but decided it was better to post a one-liner than to add bulk and make a worse post.
But I don't mind saying it now because I've just re-read and now I feel like I have a bit more of a handle on this game...
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Poro - why did you take this long to vote, and why have you chosen for your eventual vote to be on Elmo?
In post 60, Porochaz wrote:Really not liking the run of cdb's posts. Context gets lost in writing, but its reminding me of a certain scum game in Orlando, tone wise.
Can you explain which game you're thinking of?
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ChannelDelibird wrote:In what way?
Well, I don't have loads of reads still, but more than before.
CDB - On rereading, I think he's more likely town, or at least, not especially scum. His explanation for his posting in #55 seems fairly genuine and I can see him having this reaction as town. Plus I was having some of the same feelings - awareness that my posting wasn't coming across as super townie, because I haven't been able to do much scumhunting yet, and in my opinion that is what I'm not as confident of him being town as I sometimes am, but he's townier than some for now.
Nexus - Townreading him mainly based on him having presumably committed himself to a particular role, and I think he's less likely to do that as scum.
Elmo - I also have him as null, but CES thinks that the questions he asks in #61 feel town.
AVox - Null. AVox being scum in that previous invitational makes me wary about reading him without a lot more content.
Shanba - Null. Shanba being town in that previous invitational makes me wary about reading him without a lot more content.
inspi - Leaning scum. CES points out that his comment in #69 seems fake. Did he really 'not think it would make a difference'? Seems more likely (as town) that he simply didn't consider it at a time. If so, the fact that he is declaring a thought process now means he's making it up -> therefore lying -> therefore scum.
Poro - Might be scum but I'm not great at reading Poro. My beef with the stats thing (and my tiny scum-ping) was:
Presumably Poro is 'more likely to be scum' because he picks scum more often. But we didn't pick our roles in this game. The fact that he doesn't point this out made me think that maybe, he didn't recognise that difference because he still got scum.
CES thinks: Poro might be scum because he feels like he's not really connected to the game that much.
Primate - Nullish. Although he seems fairly loose and happy so far, so maybe town.
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A couple of minor things I forgot:
Nexus' cry of "bullshit" upon entering the game did make me think he'd drawn a scum PM. But his activity and engagement points towards him being town.
I guess that is the difference comparing Poro and Nexus right now? Nexus seems active and engaged, Poro seems active but not engaged.
And when I say engaged, I think maybe I mean 'scumhunting'.
- Fenchurch
PS: I edited my last post to move the Shanba and Avox reads together, because it worked better that way, but that accidentally made Elmo become 'also null' when nobody previously had been described as 'null', oops.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 77, Ampersand wrote:I haven't been able to do much scumhunting yet, and in my opinion that is what I'm not as confident of him being town as I sometimes am, but he's townier than some for now.
Woops, I also didn't finish writing this properly. It's my opinion that I'm decidedly not scumhunty when I'm scum. So failing to be scumhunty, makes me aware that I might as well be scum. Since I was having that thought process this game as town, I could imagine CDB-town having the same one.
And, sorry for taking a while to get going here, I think the past few days I've still been reeling from the aftershock of Team Mafia.
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In post 106, AurorusVox wrote:Seems like the naked vote was placed to bait someone into voting him so he could turn it around and vote them without needing to put too much effort in himself.
I'm not really a fan of this logic as the purported motivation behind Prozacscum's naked vote doesn't seem that different from what Prozac is claiming it is. Having given it some thought, I feel like there is some sort of valid point there, but on the whole I do tend to think that Prozac's described motivation was at least broadly true.
In post 108, Porochaz wrote:I mean, what effort? It's not like we have Shakespeare entire works to go off of here. I mean this is ridiculous, you are all acting like we have plenty to go and Im still just coming out of RVS... its page 5, why are you acting otherwise?
We're halfway through the Day! And you're familiar with all of us!The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Current reads:
CDB - prob town
Nexus - prob town, seems legitimate and trying to make things happen
Shanba - prob town, 104 seems good
Primate - prob town, 101 seems honest
Elmo - null
Poro - scummy
inspi - scummy
AVox - scummy
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In post 119, AurorusVox wrote:Fences is tryhard but I imagine that's just fenchurch indicative more than anything and I can't really suspect people just because they're clearly more motivated than anyone else.
If it wasn't me, you'd think that's a scumtell?
And since it is me, you think it's a nulltell?
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In post 122, AurorusVox wrote:Yes Fen, the tone pinged for me - in particular there was that triple run of posts that just seemed a little off to me. Scrambling for approval in a way. But I think that with you it's just as likely to come from you you being helpful.
What do you think is a scumtell for me? What do you think is a towntell for me?The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 127, inspiratieloos wrote:Sorry for my inactivity guys, I'll have more time starting Monday.
That's a shame, because the deadline is Tuesday. And you're one of the people we have to make a decision on whether to lynch by then.
That said, my current instinct on the scumteam is AVox and Poro. But I'd rather have more to go on by now.
But CES thinks inspie is still the most likely. Because (and I do normally agree with this in principle) scum are more comfortable with extended V/LA's than town are, because it doesn't seem like it will have such an adverse effect on their win condition.
This is why I didn't want to hydra.
Okay actually we've just talked about it more and CES is happy with this. So, I think AVox's vote on Poro looks potentially like a bus. Like, he sees a wagon building on Poro, thinks he gains more from being on it than off it, and so takes the opportunity. I also think AVox is likely to play scum this way.
And I actually feel marginally more confident of AVox being scum than Poro. The reason the vote seems like a bus is because it felt a bit artificial, so it could just be a vote from scum on town. So right now I'd prefer to:
VOTE: AVox
But reasonably happy to switch to Poro if it's needed.
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Ampersand Goon
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AVox can you answer my questions at the top of this page please?
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I will remind people that the deadline is in three (3) days. Everyone should vote for one of AV, Poro and insp.
Especially after AV's non-response in 134, I think that's the right vote, but more than that it's time to move forward towards a lynch.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 131, Porochaz wrote:I'm not ready to lynch yet though, especially since I'd be surprised if anyone has a complete view of the game thus far, with a number of posters having barely posted.
We're gonna lynch someone very soon regardless of whether anyone has a 'complete view of the game' or not, so please let's work with what we've got.
In fact, I'd like to have enough time to analyse a claim and react, so can we get to this stage asap.
Nexus: you're doubting yourself on Poro - why? How do you feel about AVox?
CDB: you have inspi as most scummy, neutral on AVox, and Poro as not voteworthy. What are your reasons for these reads, please?
Primate: where are you? Where is your review of the game?
Elmo, Shanba: I have no issues with either of you, please continue doing what you're doing.
Patrick- prods on Primate, inspi and Nexus please? Maybe Poro?
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Are neither of you willing to answer my questions or to elaborate on your current thoughts?
Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the votes. The lynch is important, but I was kinda hoping to get some information at the same time.
Poro - what did you mean by 'russian roulette' style game btw?
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In post 144, Porochaz wrote:You didn't have questions for me?
You were the 'elaborate on your thoughts' part of that sentence.
I get your point about inspi, but I still feel that it's possible to have reads on the remaining players and work from that. And in the last invitational we lynched both scum in 12 pages.
You've gone with the AVox wagon, why? I mean obviously I agree with the vote, but I still want to hear what sways you.
In post 145, Nexus wrote:I literally answered your question - I was doubting myself because I wasn't sure about inspie and AV and just wondered if I was overly paranoid
That doesn't really answer my question. I knew that, but what gave you doubts about inspi and AV in particular?
Also, you complained about too many scumreads, but three scumreads in a game with probably two scum doesn't seem that much of an problem.
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In post 157, Nexus wrote:Would it be bad form to say lynch the slot?
I don't think it's bad form, there's games where I've felt it was the right move, but my willingness depends on my read of the slot in question and the rest of the game. Right now inspi isn't my top scumread and my townreads aren't that strong either.
Looking at his play and his replace out, I can see him doing all this as town. I think CES disagrees somewhat with my opinion though.
Basically, I'm reluctant rather than keen to lynch him. Would like to wait and see if a replacement is forthcoming first, at any rate.
- Fenchurch
PS:Patrick- can you delete my posts from the wrong account?The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Awesome yay! Hi hito!The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Yarr hito!
In post 154, ChannelDelibird wrote:What does give me pause is that AV did a better job of faking engagement with the game and scumhunting when he was scum in the Scumdon invitational.
I also remember him being really obvious in his first as scum at the meet though.
AV, if you're town, you don't have to convince us of that, you could just convince us that Poro is scummier.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 172, hitogoroshi wrote:This is dangerously going into the crappy semantic tells newbies love, but I can't help but feel that the use of past tense here is kind of scummy. Prozac *seemed* scummy? Fenchurch *was* doing? Well, what about now? Gross vibe of trying to ensure consistency with past content.
I was going to call you scum but I do actually like this point.
In post 172, hitogoroshi wrote:I think you/CES were a hydra in that awful hydra only game I played in as Copper. So...kind of?
Hey, we won that game! It was more awful for town that it was for us.
In post 173, hitogoroshi wrote:I've caught up and this would be an excellent spot for a vote, but I'm not going to vote yet! how mysterious. that hito guy must be up to something.
You're going to treestump, right? Tell me I'm right.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Yes, please for the love of god claim AV, yes. Right now I still want to lynch you more than anyone else and your claim may well be a factor in either strengthening or weakening that feeling for me.
And if you're not scum, please do some more work in identifying and persuading us of who the scum is instead.
Igree with CES that I like hito's points on AVox. hito seems probably town. Not as sold on the points about Nexus though I'm afraid, because I kinda expect Nexus to play like this as town (but I admit that I don't know what I expect Nexus to play like as scum, which makes things more awkward).
Just for the record, if this is a code then I disapprove.In post 178, AurorusVox wrote:v t n t y t ht bt cn b n m th ty t my yb h t ng yt gn...
Patrick- prods on Poro and Primate?
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In post 119, AurorusVox wrote:I've clearly claimed an only town role so you should all sheep me and lynch poro.
This doesn't seem like a mason breadcrumb.
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Hmmm.
I'm not really sure what to do with this. The first two breadcrumbs are a bit sketchy and make me think there's a chance scum-AVox hadn't [fully] decided to fakeclaim mason at that point. But... it could be worse, and is possible that he really is a mason. But even as a mason it's still possible that he's scum, as a werewolf mason (scum could be any type afaik).
Any mason partners AVox, or are you solo?
CDB, you said you'd post yesterday evening and you still haven't. This makes me sad, and it also shifts my read on you towards null/scummy.
I don't feel super-ready for a lynch now, deadline aside; although CES feels differently.
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In post 196, Shanba wrote:weird that he should claim and not reveal what the coded post was about?In post 197, hitogoroshi wrote:In post 190, Elmo wrote:
Aaaaaaa, aa aaaa aa aaaaaaa aaaa a aaaa aaaa aaaaaaaa aa aaaaaaa a aaaaa aaaaaa. Aaaaaaaaaaa, a aaa aaaa aaaaaaa aaaa!!In post 178, AurorusVox wrote:v t n t y t ht bt cn b n m th ty t my yb h t ng yt gn...
I wasn't at the meet so someone should tell me if this is some sort of meet reference, or whatever
Shanba, I'm guessing AVox was telling the truth when he said afterwards that it wasn't a code, he was just demonstrating that his keyboard wasn't working?
hito, I don't think it's a reference, Elmo is just screaming. Or he's translated AVox's code. Or posting a code of his own.
In post 197, hitogoroshi wrote:So I'll probably hammer AV around ~12 hours from this post? Would like Ampersands thoughts on that last Shanba post though. For now, it's bedtime.
You've put it all into much better words than me, but I'm in a similar place to you, where I don't have a lot of confidence in this lynch because a number of other people have also been reasonable amounts of scummy. I didn't notice the thing about Shanba not pushing Poro until you pointed it out, but I agree with it. I think CDB's disinterest in the game could be an indication that he's scum. I think Nexus could be scum, I genuinely don't know how to begin reading him, and I'm kind of in the same place with Poro. (CES says he trusts CDB's earlier declaration of Nexus being town, but personally I don't have faith in that, especially under the circumstances).
I think Elmo and Primate are probably town, but neither of those are strong townreads at the best of times. I think you're town but I don't know how good your scumgame is.
The issue is mainly that a whole bunch of people aren't putting much effort into the game and that makes it very hard to read them and discern the townies and the scum.
So it's a bit of a vote-and-pray lynch rather than a lynch that I have a lot of confidence in. But I don't have a good alternative.
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I meant to post this yesterday but it seems to not have gone through.
My thinking on the "only town role" was that it could point to AV preparing a fake claim for Mason Lover (Mason Doctor also works but seems less likely) but then changing his mind and going for something less risky/outlandish when pushed to claim (I find this plausible because I have done that exact thing on Skype). Not the most likely theory (it does pick up some points with the bromance vs. broship quibbling) but it does make me somewhat more willing to lynch AV.
I also just think it's more likely that AVscum would fake-claim Mason than that AVtown would happen to draw a role so strongly associated with him.
Thus:
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{]============The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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We're out this evening so I can't add more than I have done, just logged on in case there was a flip.
Please can someone make sure they hammer before deadline?
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In post 214, Nexus wrote:Slight concern about Ampersand still being alive but that could be uber paranoia.
The hitokill put me off a little too at first, although in re-reading he probably was contributing a bit more than us by the end of the Day. It does make me worry a little about Shanba and Primate even though I think their posting has generally been town-sounding (but also both did seem to avoid making an impact on the D1 lynch in one way or another).
Bleh, the game feels much more intractable now after two town flips.
I suspect this is still the right vote:
Vote: Porochaz
Channel, you should post!The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 217, Porochaz wrote:Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?
Yarr. In re-reading you just sounded off to me at several points and I think everyone else has been at least somewhat townish.
Although thinking over the hitokill more, whereas I don't necessarily find it compelling evidence towards Primate/Shanba/Nexus, maybe it does point to Poro being town? Hito was the one most strongly pushing outside of the central AV vs. Poro conflict and that's a conflict you want to leave firmly behind you if you're Poroscum.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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To add to CES' post above, he currently thinks Poro is most likely scum by PoE, but admits that he's not sure if Poro as scum would have incentive to kill hito, and says I'm free to move our vote if I want to.
I don't yet know if I want to.
In post 217, Porochaz wrote:Just checking, do you know why you are voting me?
This is a weirdly worded question though. Were you asking CES to explain why he voted for you? Or just confirm whether he had a reason? Because I can't think of a situation in which the answer to the latter question would be 'no'.
I was also half expecting us to die during the night. I guess there's multiple potential reasons why hito died instead:
a) he had a better grasp on who the scum were
b) he seemed more likely to work out who the scum were in future
c) he seemed more town
d) he seemed less likely to get mislynched
e) we seemed more likely to be protected
But since I just finished a game where I died N1 and had the two scum as my top two scumreads, I don't want to ignore the possibility of a). Which makes Nexus/Shanba/Primate more likely to be scum, as far as I can tell.
Ugh, this game just feels like wading through mud. It's frustrating coming out of Team Mafia, where I had at least one or two strong reads in most of our games, into this, where despite me being familiar with all the players, I feel like I don't have a solid clue.
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In post 222, ChannelDelibird wrote:Hito kill strikes me as odd; I might have been prepared to go after him for some of his AV push.
Is this true? Did you think hito came off as scummy for pushing the AV lynch, and if so, in what way?
In post 223, ChannelDelibird wrote:I still think that Nexus is town.
Can you elaborate on this? CES is trusting you on this read, but I'd like to know more about where it's coming from.
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Yarr. Makes me happy I'm still on poro.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Wow, I'm pretty embarrassed to admit that I kinda forgot about this game for the past couple of days. I think that's the first time that's happened to me. Sorry all.
Porochaz - why did you choose to track CDB?
CES points out that even as a Tracker, Poro could be a Mafia Tracker, but thinks that if the claim is a lie or is scum this will become apparent come massclaim, so Poro is not the best lynch for today.
I'm inclined to believe the claim, and I'm inclined to think Poro is town now. I didn't have any strong read on him before anyway (the vote and the push was all from CES), and the hito-kill plus his claim make me think he's probably town.
My order of preference for lynching now:
scummiest > less scummy
Nexus >> Shanba > Primate/Elmo/CDB >>> Porochaz
I've read CDB's 228 on why he thinks Nexus is town, and I don't really agree. I think it assumes less from Nexus' scum play than is correct - that he wouldn't show engagement or investment in the game, that he wouldn't express opinions counter to the majority - I don't think these things are true. I think Nexus' play here could be scum, and I think he would be likely to kill hito last night.
VOTE: Nexus
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Shanba, is this all you have to say in response to the claim?
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In post 256, Nexus wrote:patrick how you getting on with a primate replacement mate
That's the only thing you want to comment on?The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Yayyy, hi Tammy!
In post 261, Elmo wrote:I'm mulling a theory where CDB-scum overestimates his ability to read Nexus-town and ends up giving reasoning that seems really stretched. I'm not sure how dumb that sounds. I have to reread this specifically, ugh. I do remember him making a side comment about the AV lynch that seemed intended to earn him town cred but did nothing to stop the lynch from happening. I remember disliking his Shanba vote in #223 but not why. Hmm.
I could believe this. CES suggested a theory when I voted Nexus, that CDB and Nexus could be scum together, and that would be a reason for CDB declaring a strong but false townread on Nexus. But actually, CDB could be scum by himself and this would still work.
The problem for me in this game isn't really that we know each other too well; it's just that nobody is playing in a way that strikes me clearly as their town or scum game. Everyone is in range of both. Which makes it hard to get conviction in any read.
Still, it's a small game and I feel like I've narrowed things down a bit now. Elmo seems slightly more town just for making good points about CDB and on Nexus' reaction to Poro's claim. Tammy is [read pending].
Currently wiling to vote Nexus, Shanba, CDB.
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In post 274, Tammy wrote:Oh I remember, this is the only post I worried about from Ampersand.
In yoloville, CES made a similar type of "mislynch" slip and I should have paid more attention to it when Vi pointed it out.
Well CES was referring to the Scumdon invitational, where he was scum, and Shanba was the Day 1 mislynch. So that is the game where CES knew that Shanba was town.
Also you should ask Patrick about how often scumslips are valid.
In post 269, Tammy wrote:One thing that did keep repeating to me in the dream though was Nexus' assertions that he got his favorite role. I don't remember seeing anyone react to that at all and it kinda surprised me that he's on people's suspect list while doing something that I thought would be familiar or that would spark a response. I'm not sure what to make of that. Maybe I'm misremembering how many times he said it.
Woops, I had forgotten this. I don't actually remember what Nexus' favourite role is, although now I'm thinking about it I have a guess. It did make me think he was town on D1 though, that is true. People who give very early reactions to their role I generally think are town because I do that more often as town myself (as scum I often haven't decided what I want to fakeclaim at that point).
That said, right now everyone has something that makes me think they might be town:
* Nexus was pretty active on D1 and there is the role thing
* CDB's reaction to being the first wagon seemed town
* Elmo has made some good comments
* Primate/Tammy have also made some good comments
* Porochaz I think is town mainly for the claim
* Shanba seems more engaged than I would expect him to be as scum, and has made some good comments.
Hmm so for a lot of people it comes down to 'they've said some things that seem like legitimate scumhunting to me'. I'm probably being too generous with my definition here, although I maintain that this game is harder than the games I read most of in Team Mafia, where I felt several scum were fairly obvious in their lack of scumhunting. I will try and do a proper re-read soon though, because that should help, and evidently I've already forgotten stuff.
I'm switching to Shanba now though, because looking back just briefly, although he's posted more than Primate/Elmo, I think he's actually been less insightful, and the post I'd marked him as town for (104) doesn't look that amazing in retrospect.
Plus I think Shanba-scum would also be fairly likely to make the hito-kill.
VOTE: Shanba
Tammy - I did mention the CDB-tracked-nowhere when CES and I were talking about the possibility of a Nexus-CDB scumteam yesterday, he didn't seem bothered by it. At the time I thought that it would be be fine as it just means the other scum made the kill. But now I think about it, in a 2:7 game, would the scum be likely to have two power roles? Although it is possible they don't, or that one of their powers is a passive and/or negative utility (e.g. reflexive doctor).
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Dammit.Patrick, at some point maybe could you tidy my mis-posts please?The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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In post 282, Tammy wrote:But I will say that the reason why I asked what CES thought about the no track on CDB was because in NY 146 when he replaced in he gave a statistical reason why he was likely not scum because of a no track on him/or vanilla result, damn now I'm second guessing that and will have to look back. If it was a track, I might have another question. So, tomorrow.
Tracker innocents tend to have some value, yes. I don't care about this one so much because I don't really feel like CDb would've made the kill (e.g. if Shanba pushed for a hitokill, then I think the natural default is for him to make it) and also because Prozac's alignment is still unknown.
Channel, you should vote for Shanba. Deadline is on Sunday!The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Hito explains swagger tell in 202.
In post 286, Elmo wrote:Hmm, I should vote but it's, uh, late. Tammy has posted a bunch of stuff which I haven't read properly but seems reasonably townish so far, which is mildly annoying since that leaves me with Nexus and CDB, and, well, is it that easy? It just feels off because I'd expect CDB to get nervous around Nexus, but he just seems very nonchalant about the whole thing. I dunno. Consider this a nominal vote for CDB.
I've definitely thought at times it could just be those two.The ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Shanba, you should probably just claim.
Non-voters, you should probably vote.
I'm sorry for not mustering up more energy for this game.
But don't worry, we've got a plan.
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Shanba, why aren't you voting anyone? You were waiting for a couple of players to give their own read on you, is that likely to help you place a vote?
Nexus, what the hell was that? Oh, your vote on us was a joke-vote? Also I'm unclear between your 302 and 303, you imply you haven't read the game, but you do appear to be up to date with the claims.
In post 303, Nexus wrote:To be fair, wouldn't the best move be to lynch one of the two claimed players? And technically a Tracker is more useful than a VT.
CES thinks this is scummy. Suggesting lynches based on gamestate rather than reads indicates an unwillingness to take responsibility for choosing a lynch.
We might be up for a flashwagon on Nexus, if anyone else is interested.
CDB - your read on Nexus was based on his engagement and activity in early game. Does his lack of activity on Day 2 do nothing to modify that read?
Elmo - Shanba is right in that you don't really seem to have declared a read on him. In 286 you rule out Tammy and then say that leaves you with CDB-Nexus, but at that point I'd already placed a vote on Shanba, so why not consider him? Why haven't you considered us at all, for that matter?
Tammy, where are you? When you joined the game your provided plenty of exciting insight and observations, but for the past two days you've vanished. (Is this because you are scum?)
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In post 307, ChannelDelibird wrote:No more than anyone else's lack of activity has.
You'd say it's no different? I might not have been amazingly active, but I have definitely read every part of the game as it's happened, and commented on it.
How confident would you say you are in your Nexus-read? Like, how accurate do you think it is, how surprised would you be to be wrong, how likely would you be to put money on it if that were an option. (Note: not asking you to actually put any money on it, no rule-breaking, but this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch.)
Feel free to provide this information in comparison to your other reads, too.
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In post 309, Fenchurch wrote:this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch
* on a read, not just a lynch
PS: god-damn hydraslipsThe ampersand, rather than the heart, is the true symbol of love.
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Shanba, if you are town - and I'm still open to the possibility that you are town - please vote for someone who isn't Porochaz? Quite a few people (myself included) are unwilling to lynch him today, and he has claimed a PR.
I started my reread, and first thing I noticed was that Nexus didn't actually claim to have gotten his 'favourite role' as Tammy described it earlier, but he got 'the role that he always picks in Greater Idea'. (To be fair, these could be the same thing, but I'm not sure right now if they are.)
CDB - do you think you know what role this is? I'm not looking for the role itself, just your thoughts.
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In post 323, Porochaz wrote:Gut is saying Ampersand.
Where does this come from? I mean besides 'gut' and 'I've been wrong about Fen/CES before', what is there that actually makes you feel like we are likely scum?
Also, out of interest, do you think my forum scum-game would be similar to my F2F scum-game?
And what is it that makes you feel you 'shouldvote Shanba', prior to his vote on you? Just because it's 3 hours to deadline and we've gotta lynch somebody, or something besides that?
I've got more thoughts forming from my re-read but I'm only on p5 now so will try and finish the whole thing before drawing conclusions.
Also my previous post was incorrect, Nexus did say he got his 'favourite role'.
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Porochaz, out of interest, if you had been roleblocked when you tracked CDB, would you know it, or would you get the same as if he didn't go anywhere?
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NEXUS! POROCHAZ! Ugh. Stoppit you both.
Pleeease don't start drawing conclusions about what I am or am not trying to do when I'm literally in the middle of trying to figure the game out. I'm still only halfway through my re-read, it's taking longer than I thought, which is a shame when the hours are ticking down.
THING 1: Nexus is a lot more town than I remember in the early game. Posts like 89, where he makes a good point on Poro's lack of contribution, and several others where he points out contradictions, asks valid questions and pushes for more content.
Nexus, my read on you went south from Day 2 onwards, and this is purely because of two things: 1) hito made several points against you and hito got killed, 2) your lack of contribution to the game D2. 80% of your content this game is from D1 (perhaps 90% prior to this recent run of posts). I don't actually know your forum scum-meta that well, but I know mine is that I struggle to keep up the facade of scumhunting throughout the whole game, and moreso if people start suspecting me. I could definitely imagine you going through the same thing, and those two things gave me serious doubts.
My re-read of D1 reduces these doubts a lot, because frankly, your play there does seem really town, and most of our game content as a whole has been D1. Also...
THING 2: Poro looks a lot sketchier on Day 1 than I remember. The aforementioned Nexus post 89 is a good explanation of it, and discussion surrounding it. Poro's claim that he never really got into the game because of CDB's RVS-vote, seems a really weak reason.
Caveat to THING 2: At this point though, I'm heavily reminded of D2 of the Scumdon invitational, where I was convinced that one of CDB and Poro were scum, and it turned out neither were. They were both acting really weird and drawing wrong conclusions. So this gives me some doubt in my read of Poro, which I guess leads to.
THING 3: I'm still pretty neutral on Shanba, and hito did make good points about Shanba as wel, most notably 197.
Right now I think it's either Shanba-???? or Poro-????, or I guess a very slim outside chance of Shanba-Poro. So I'm probably happy with the Shanba lynch, as it stands.
I'm still trying to finish up my re-read so I'll post this now and add more thoughts if I have time.
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In post 326, Porochaz wrote:It's stupid, it's a "too good to be true" read. I have an absolute town read on you and varying degrees of mehness on everyone else.
Also, I just want to point out how mad this is. 'There's one player who seems the most town... so that player is probably scum'.
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In post 340, Nexus wrote:I mean, most of my points still stand.
What are your points? That I had a massive turnaround on you Day 2? I've explained my reasons for that. You even already knew my reasons. That I've been needling CDB about his read on you? Because he hasn't had any of the same doubts, and that makes me wonder if CDB is scum, in part. And if not, because if you are town and he has compelling reasons for it, then I want to know about that.
Also I was questioning him about whether he knew your favourite role, in part because if your favourite role turned out to not be what I thought it was (it is) then CDB-scum might have nightkilled you if he knew it, and so I wanted to know upfront whether that was the case. I didn't want you to claim it.
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Also my current thoughts (in case of death) are that it's either Shanba-Porochaz, or it's one of them paired with Tammy.
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