Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[popsofctown]

I am scum IRL, not in the game. Please keep it straight, hito.

Players should not claim their roles/choices in this game, because they are mostly protective in nature, and the scum control most of the nightkilling actions.

VOTE: implosion for posting while this was on my clipboard while I was checking whether I need to "go get an avatar"vote any of the newbies. I do not, unfortunately for imp

[popsofctown]

If the gun should claim at all it should definitely be delayed the rose nights probably look something like a normal distribution jammed to the left, so less value is lost if the gun claims sometime later on.

[popsofctown]

also vote VOTE: hitogoroshi because he's openwolfing

[popsofctown]

@mod: when a player dies is their rose and gun possession revealed and their used-up not-used up on the gun revealed and the night of their rose revealed?

If it is the whole, gun never claims except at L-1, gun enforced claim accuracy with texas justice, plan seems foolproof.

[popsofctown]

TEXAS JUSTICE

[popsofctown]

LIKE NORMAL JUSTICE, BUT UNNECESSARILY EXTRAJUDICIAL

[popsofctown]

Lady Lambadelta's avatar is different from what I remember and I feel like now I can't read her right or something. Hito's is different but I am pretty sure he just took a selfie and uploaded it so that is o.k.

I'm not gonna try to figure out how to read Lady Lambdadelta through my confusion until her partner if she has one is dead, I think that seems reasonable.

[popsofctown]

I keep opening this thread to bookmark it then posting something stupid then forgetting to bookmark it before I close again. Also why was this in the theme queue instead of the open queue? It's like the open queue can't have setup designs that don't suck cause setups that qualify somehow sneak into a diff queue.

[popsofctown]

Something Smart why aren't you voting me yet?

[popsofctown]

VOTE: Vote: Something_Smart
I'm sheeping LLD.
Not on her top read cause I don't understand that one but I like the logic on S_S.

Unfounded accusations could have subbed in for a vote if he cares so much about the voting record.
Is there gonna be a 100% siteflake rate on the newbies?

[popsofctown]

Yes

[popsofctown]

Because it's true.

I'm gonna reread this thread tomorrow and have more/better to say

[popsofctown]

VOTE: implosion for posting while this was on my clipboard while I was checking whether I need to "go get an avatar"vote any of the newbies. I do not, unfortunately for imp

don't really like how much you're trying to emphasize voting on known rules. but I'm already voting you, nice

I slightly scumread this. The meter is slightly awkward, and I would have liked the post better with a revote here.

And on D1 especially I don't want to give them a chance to shoot.

I somehow, previous to this moment, didn't realize mafia guns get a chance to shoot extra if their lynch is delayed. My brain had them as goons for whatever reason. Probably because the double acting is confusing, even without doubleacting they'd be able to use half their guns per night, though, and now FakeGod has confirmed they are fully doubleacting.

So this discussion has been like, really overcomplicated right? This is a smalltown setup, basically. The gun is not a named townie just a townie with a gun. Claiming gun should not be a deterrent from hammering, that verifies the player has a 2/3rds chance of being scum. 67% chance of an additional scum NK and a 33% chance of an additional vig is a penalty, not reward, for backing off of a wagon. So hito has that part correct. Asking for the gun to claim early so he can be hawt is not correct, it identifies who can be NKed.

Explain how hito is openwolfing. I think he's solidly town so far.

I don't have much.
Page 2 it was obvious hyperbole.

What does a song lyric do differently here then the "damn" and "aloha" posts, I guess? I tend to find first posts without voting to be more of "present without involved" than those with. (Not that I think SS or implo are mafia for their first posts, because I don't buy in to "present without involved" for the first coupla pages. But if you do, why LLD shitpost-with-vote over nothing-post-without-vote?)

shitposts can be somewhat alignment indicative. It's a bit harder to have fun as mafia, for the average person. On average in most of my scumgames I think I'm more serious.
There's some bizarre creatures that can have fun even as mafia so it can maybe be harder to get anything then.
Then like I'm suspecting Something_Smart is some previously unknown lizard from the most outlying Galapagos island who does not have fun as either alignment so maybe it's a misread.

Hey pops, what the hell? If I'm openwolfing, that means that I'm so smug about being the gee-darn mafia that I'm not even trying to hide it and just playing for maximal advantage for my team. that is a pretty serious accusation and I was excited to hear more! but instead you just get off my wagon without a word on how I'm openwolfing and instead sheeping LLD but not even her primary read? When you just said you can't read LLD and figure that if she's scum you're just catching her on associatives with her partner?

Openwolfing was irony. Not quite humor but RVS fun. RVS is a spectrum, by the by. It's not truly discrete like we like to believe. Even in LyLo it's just a bunch of pretty serious RVS votes. Still only kinda backed up by anything, but kindaX99.
But also in general, if I promise you a present in a weekend drunkpost, and my next post is a weekend drunkpost, you're probably going to be disappointed.
Btw After my reread I townread LLD. Obviously I am going to get over someone changing their avatar sooner or later.

VOTE: Vote: Something_Smart
I'm sheeping LLD.
Not on her top read cause I don't understand that one but I like the logic on S_S.

Unfounded accusations could have subbed in for a vote if he cares so much about the voting record.
Is there gonna be a 100% siteflake rate on the newbies?

what do you like about it?

[/quote]

Strength of entrance has some meaning in the game, and S_S made a weak entrance.
On reread I understand LLD's xyzzy read better but she said some stuff to the effect of don't cheat and tell xyzzy what xyzzy ought to say to justify xyzzy's post so I'm gonna wait for more of that plays out before jumping in. I don't want to get yelled at . In any case besides when the slot is scum and that becomes a necessary evil.

[popsofctown]

Shitposts are beautiful.

The first page of this game is the best one.

Winning can come later.

[popsofctown]

But I'm not the only person who didn't shitpost. Several people jumped right in and started discussing the game; implosion's entrance was almost identical to mine, actually.

Why single me out among those players?

Because you acknowledged I am scum IRL.

But you allow me to roam at large.

Implosion is super scummy, please don't spoil danganronpa for the other players.

[popsofctown]

I think Alisae was pretty perceptive in saying the best claim is actually rose, not expecting it to be a clear, just as part of an overall effort to dayplay away the wagoners' intent to hammer. Because mechanically neither claim is worth any water. You can claim the thing that is very common and very unverifiable or you can claim the thing that mandates your lynch cannot be procrastinated.

[popsofctown]

"Are you Axis or Allied???"
"Look, guys. Calm down. Let me clarify things to make it obvious to you why you shouldn't execute me right now: Whichever it is, I'm absolutely not a civilian, and I'm armed."

[popsofctown]

UNVOTE: unvote: something_smart the other people voting S_S suck
VOTE: xyzzy the people voting xyzzy are awesome

I'm willing to play mafia in a affiliative, coalition building, town-leader way that objectively leads to their wagons going through, hito! But not with you! Eat a chocolate rose.

[popsofctown]

Uh
dude
what makes SS' opening worse then Implos?

Implosion is super scummy, please don't spoil danganronpa for the other players.

[popsofctown]

HITO IS LESS LIKELY TO BE VOTING SCUM BECAUSE HE'S BAD AT MAFIA.
I WAS GOING TO LEAVE IT UNSAID BUT S_S MADE ME SAY IT

[popsofctown]

In the next votecount, FakeGod will print you a list of people whose votes are better than hito's. He's going to say that it's a list of people that are voting xyzzy, but do not be fooled by the confusing formatting, he is actually providing a modconfirmed list of players who tend to vote scum more accurately than hito.
My name will be on there and that one will count

especially

.

S_S please wait with bated breath. I will begin summoning FakeGod by touching the Fake runes and chanting some fake words.

[popsofctown]

I think xyzzy is in prod range mafiascum is 48 hour prods these days right?

[popsofctown]

Nice try implosion I am happy to help you bus, you are good at mafia, I know you. Changing your avatar hasn't fooled me.

[popsofctown]

You last played with me in 2010, practically yesterday. And your avatar was different then. I play with you again this month and your avatar is already different. I can't believe you would change your avatar so quickly just to fool me in a game of mafia, but it's not going to get you anywhere.

[popsofctown]

I am helping him bus to cause him to become Xposed

[popsofctown]

xyzzy is n1 rose mafia, implosion is n2 rose mafia. I want to wrap this one up and requeue.

[popsofctown]

hito is not bad at mafia, it is just important that I not give S_S serious answers because that would foment his New and Dangerous Ideals about not having fun in D1's.

xyzzy is a little scummier than implosion.

[popsofctown]

you can have some serious responses cause you have some fun on d1

[popsofctown]

I know, implosion should have picked gun, but you should take that up with him, not me.

[popsofctown]

xyzzy is a little scummier than implosion.

[popsofctown]

hito is not bad at mafia, it is just important that I not give S_S serious answers because that would foment his New and Dangerous Ideals about not having fun in D1's.

xyzzy is a little scummier than implosion.

>:(

You used an emoticon! We're already on the right track! Emoticons are fun!

[popsofctown]

FakeGod: Please prod Pine

I don't see a prod guideline in the rules, I usually like some kind of rule that says I'm not a jerk for asking for a prod, but I see apparently that the days are 8 days long and I only need to post every 4 days so with perfect timing I could win the game in.. eight posts as scum? I think I'm already over 8 posts. I'm already overachieving. Where are my Xbox gamerscore achievements?

Haschel Cedricson is just openly refusing to do anything which is obviously terrible.

This d1 dayplay makes me want to design a setup that is the opposite of this setup, you decide how badly you want to vig people after the game has already started and start sacrificing other advantages to vig people who are wolfing or refusing to act any different from one.

[popsofctown]

active lurking? or lurking lurking. or applying the U-boat strategy to a red role pm. What name would you like to give it?

[popsofctown]

Haschel debrief us on what this accomplished.

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Is this just the I should be on implosion thing, or tonal also?

[popsofctown]

Since I'm relatively new to the format, I'm doing a "watch and wait" approach. Whether that indicts me or not as a scum or not is up to you all, but for now, I'd like my vote to be inconsequential and be a bit more active after the end of the first night.

As such, I'll VOTE: Cephrir. somebody I doubt will be lynched today.

Since I'm relatively new to the format, I'm doing a "watch and wait" approach. Whether that indicts me or not as a scum or not is up to you all, but for now, I'd like my vote to be inconsequential and be a bit more active after the end of the first night.

As such, I'll VOTE: Cephrir. somebody I doubt will be lynched today.

why
everything
why watch and wait
why would you like your vote to be inconsequential
why active at day 2 over now
why cephir

watch and wait because I like observing the situation and seeing how people react before and after something happens

inconsequential because I have yet to have a good read on any particular individual

active at day 2 over now because I was busy and forgot to post on this after making an account

cephir because I didn't realize I could abstain from voting and doubt he'll get voted considering the state of the votecount. though he does seem innocent to me.

This is my favorite replace-in ever.
FakeGod can you please change whatever this person replaced into to N1 Rose.
You can modkill me in exchange as long as I get to watch more of this from the dead thread.

[popsofctown]

Yes. You should probably gloat about it.

[popsofctown]

I feel like there's this really strong chance this game didn't make it onto Pine's bookmarks, since he posted "I acknowledge I'm replacing into this game" and nothing else. He's posting considerably even in non mafia forums. Like, this isn't really, "he's in several mafia games, he's posting the least in this one, that means he's probably scum in this one". He's not even in this one.
FakeGod did not acknowledge my prod request so I don't know if it happened which would be very frustrating because PM ping would be how you remedy a dropped bookmark issue.

At the same time you should join more games than you can have on your mind so bookmarking issue or not it's very scum-indicative that he hasn't shown up here. I'm just saying it's reduced if it does turn out to be a bookmarking issue, I've been less active in one of my games before for a page or two until I finally got it bookmarked.

Idk. My big thing is not being particularly worried that Pine is likely to flip green because I have any information that suggests he might, my big thing is if this game is 8 day deadlines AND no prods on mod initiative AND fakegod missed my bolded prod request and we mislynch this player and it hurts my win% I'm gonna be frustrated.

VOTE: Pine l-2
For some players I'd worry about skewing their behavior and making them harder to read when they come in under so much pressure, but Pine's a big boy.

Multipost incoming

[popsofctown]

I will agree with hito that sitting on my vote is a lot less effective in a game where four others are doing the same thing,

Why? How? That doesn't make any sense. If sitting on your vote is the best way to find mafia then it's the best way to find mafia. If it's not it's not.

[popsofctown]

I'm not quite as high on cyanjet-town as pops/ceph because we have no guarantee they're a newbie and if they're an alt that feels an awful lot like a carrot in a box sort of gambit. But yeah it's townie enough I'm not super enthused to push it D1 so I guess this is mostly a semantic, in-case-I-die kind of quibble.

Someone could play 1000 mafia games and I'd townread those posts. The act seems too hard. I dislike this protruding effort to keep cyanjet in your lynchpool more than anything else alignment indicative you've done all day. These posts have soul. If it's a veteran roleplaying a newbie they'd have get a town role PM to get this deep in character, setting aside a lot of the diction making it unlikely that it's a veteran roleplaying a newbie.

something_special

Please don't use this nickname again. I don't know if you are trying to draw comparisons to playstyle, but I think it's an acceptable civility rule for me to request that you not turn another user's username into a variant of the only person banned from ms.net at the same time they got hard jail time. You can call him Never_Smart. Anything else.

[popsofctown]

So it's not discussing an ongoing game to say that Pine just posted in a POSTGAME DISCUSSION and has already been prodded and is not here maybe he needs to selfvote

[popsofctown]

Honestly this is a wildly good playerlist with a fantastic mod. I'm excited.

Honestly
Honestly
Some people occasionally say use of the word honestly or to be honest is a scumtell and there's often reasons to be skeptical.

But man.
Right about now.

[popsofctown]

S_S let's say, I'm not looking for my teammates to self vote.

Actually, if I was scum with Pine, I would want him to selfvote.

Yeah this is a scummy slot.

[popsofctown]

He said he was excited to play.

Clearly he's not.
LAL.

[popsofctown]

Mistaken about his own feelings?

Does that mean it's possible I actually like hito

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implausible the next thing he was about to do was read page1-3 which is soaked in my charisma

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J/ingle

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He has a PM in his inbox from FakeGod

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Does he not check his pms?

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Should someone make a speakeasy thread that says "pine sucks" because he's checking that subforum

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xyzzy's post was bad. I'm glad this is a high scumread game since the setup probably favors scumhunting over townhunting

[popsofctown]

I wish implosion wasn't the one pointing out I don't want to reevaluate any of my reads that is not fun

[popsofctown]

FYI: I'm going to be V/LA tomorrow afternoon through Sunday afternoon/evening camping. Don't know if I'll have access at all, probably won't be looking at MS in particular even if I do.

Location: zoraster's backyard

Most Wi-Fi networks aren't secure you should be able to join us.

[popsofctown]

When one is involved with the missing events? The scum motivation is not drawing attention to one's self.

As for my vote, you can consider it to be on Alisae, xyzzy, and S_S.

Then flipping just vote one. Isoing the mod is a thing. Provable randomness is banned in thread but I rolled a d6, divided it by two and rounded down, and it says xyzzy.

[popsofctown]

However, if you're going to do that then you need to be actively looking for a place to eventually put it and I see no evidence that S_S is doing that.

I mean, I'm going to eventually put it somewhere where five other people might also put theirs. If they don't, it hardly matters where it is.

When I start wagons they don't take off, this is a rule almost without exception. So it's likely I'll be looking at the wagons that are forming closer to deadline and supporting the one I'm most comfortable with.

My vote isn't worth very much right now. My D1 scumreads are probably no better than random, on average. That's why I'm being so reactive with my vote, and why I usually wouldn't have it down at all at this juncture.

If you literally were born unable to snipe scum d1 you should focus your meta on trying to townspew and this close to the vest vote thingy you got going on seems like the worst strat for that ever. like play to your strengths. Whatever smash character Haschel played today. Whatever one it was. That one's too fucking fast I play a slow one. I'm too dumb for it. I gotta do what I'm good at.

Last hit with Annie Q, take bonus damage to minions masteries, wallow in the shame and own it.

[popsofctown]

ugh i guess sitting on your hands every day 1 probably lowers your d1 lynch rate and improves all your winrates too but it's boooooring

[popsofctown]

Do you like submit no-kills as vig

[popsofctown]

true or false vig is the best mafia role

[popsofctown]

which is why this setup is awesome

[popsofctown]

it's a trick question because the best mafia role is vt

[popsofctown]

but vig is the second best

[popsofctown]

Well you asked a really specific question that's not super likely to reflect what S_S finds most interesting about the game.

I agree with hito that your factfinding process doesn't look very effective.

[popsofctown]

Reading now

\o/

The coniferous slowpoke finally shows up!

Bite me?

Eight seventeen a.m.

/in Hall of Mirrors

Eleven fifteen a.m.

[popsofctown]

@cyanjet: hitogoroshi indicated he thinks he is very likely to lynch scum today. Do you think that makes him more likely town?
You can click this: post 25 to see the post.

[popsofctown]

Oh I'm gonna be V/LA about... 19th to 24th, assuming my activity level is higher on departure/arrival days, which is the opposite assumption from the one hito made, but like if I procrastinate packing I have to play a forum game instead of a real game to maintain the lie to myself I won't be procrastinating for an extended period of time I figure. Will be in Seattle for a vacay, will just be phonepostings

[popsofctown]

I mean yeah but he's being so blatant about it whereas xyzzy is doing the same thing with subterfuge.

Oh you don't perceive xyzzy as going out of xyzzy's way.
I think you should perceive harder.

[popsofctown]

VOTE: xyzzy
I could definitely lynch haschel too.
I'm not sure I could lynch implo and feel lame for it.

Pine's inactivity might be rand for him maaaaybe ugh but please shoot him. It can't be town for him though. Like if he hates playing town then when he gets the town role pm it should factor into this "Honestly im so excited to play with you guys" boosha

[popsofctown]

Votecount 1.4 has two instances of xyzzy

LLD, pressure doesn't really seem to be the variable determining whether Pine plays this game. His last post looks like he just read his PM and posted and then... went and /inned for another game and did some kind of other stuff.

It's not good but xyzzy is scummier and -remember- this setup is special in that a day 1 lynch allows us to rescue a townie, so sequencing lynches in a way that might generate information or something isn't as good as voting the person you think is gonna get FakeGod using the red fontcolor

[popsofctown]

my previous post has an

@FakeGod

[popsofctown]

wait is FakeGod trying to do the comical third option meme?
That doesn't seem like his brand of humor though.

[popsofctown]

That's fine to think Pine is a genuinely more likely red flip but vote the person you think is a red flip.

[popsofctown]

Alisae's argument is that Pine has a meta that is inverted from 99% of other players' where he cares more about the game as scum. Theoretically he could just win several scum games for free then, until the meta has eroded. I guess. I am skeptical of this meta. And its sample size. And all that. I kind of prefer the natural inferences about human behavior.

I kinda wanna make a mafia gambling site with much higher lost $/potential payouts when winning/losing as scum because survivor tell is a very fun magnifying glass to use and I'd hate any case it's blanked

[popsofctown]

That's L-1

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No, he should not. He should if we're leashing the vig. But we're not leashing the vig. We are or we aren't.

[popsofctown]

I'm writing a catchup post while I wait for SUPP results.

Again, I apologize for my absence. This has been a difficult week, and I've been really unmotivated. Should be a lot easier to stay current once caught up.

There's no "again", actually, last time you said "Bite me"

[popsofctown]

Pops I know you are all in on cyan town but if pine flips red I think that's where I look for buddy. You're pines #1 scum read by a mile but he has nothing to say about your cyan-town crusade?

Hammering in like 10

Cyan has absolutely no content. I dismissed the Cyan TR as scum faking a read.

When Cephrir does it it's a towntell though? Or not bad enough to get him out of your townbucket, although it'd comprise like a quarter of what Cephrir has done this game.

[popsofctown]

No alisae whyyyyy

Would we want a gun to claim if they performed the kill or does it even matter

[popsofctown]

Something Smart am I scum?

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It's day 2 I am ready for Something_Conan I was promised great things

[popsofctown]

I think my early townreads on ceph and pops still feel good to me. Haschel i don't know how to interact with because he's playing this weird game where he kind of does things at the fringe of everything and he's done things that make me feel both directions as well. S_S is kind of a gut read at this point but my gut says he's town kind of strongly? that might change tomorrow.

In fact, the only real effort I can see is against a popular target (S_S) and two absentees (xyzzy and I.)

You and xyzzy were basically collectively holding the game up yesterday. Why shouldn't town go after you, particularly in a setup with only two scum?

Because being absent site-wide (non-games do not count, there's a very different investment metric) is NAI. It's usually due to life, and I would think you'd respect my game enough to know that intentional lurking like that isn't really a worthwhile strategy. Especially if it were to start backfiring.

Yes, absentees need pressure to get back in the game, but that comes from the mod in the form of prods. Throwing shade and votes is an ineffective method for catching the attention of someone who isn't current on the gamestate, and will therefore not actually receive the message. Pressure-voting lurkers is a garbage strategy for Town.

What investment metric does queueing for additional games track on.

[popsofctown]

That's wasn't supposed to multiquote that implosion post just pine pjhhone posting is hard

[popsofctown]

I played with him in like 2011 :p

i actually kind of remember him being obvtown (w/ both of us being town) in that game. Not really relevant 8ish years later though.

Lol implo I actually deepwolfed that game, I think I might have left you alive to lose LyLo. I'm not 100% so you might wanna go check.

This is probably terrible for my slot to point this out but I think it'd be a dumb way to win if you had my meta wrong. I would check myself if I was not on phoneposting.

[popsofctown]

Implosion: what bucket do you have cyanjet in?

[popsofctown]

I'm just really irritated by it.

[popsofctown]

At a bare minimum you could effing do "hey guys still haven't found time to catch up here" and "/in" in the same session on the site. Like, in that order. Someone inviting you to a game doesn't commit you to even three characters for that game, confirming your role to fakegod in this one did, and it's not 100% about what role I thought you confirmes to fakegod really

[popsofctown]

Does one weird kill actually outweigh the way Pine is playing today? Open question.

I'm pretty confused by the NK. It does make me hesitate on pine scum especially because I am kinda aware I never had a chance to make a confirmation bias free read of any of his posts all game so there's that

[popsofctown]

Would it be treasonous to read an off-site game to look at LLD meta.

Her posts are fun to read

[popsofctown]

I feel like I don't know who the scum is so I'm not voting

[popsofctown]

Cephrir what's a good coffee shop in this town.

If you say Starbucks I will lynch you

[popsofctown]

The main reason I'm not voting right now is I feel like there is like, multiple different "theories of the game" and other posters are the ones that kind of drew that out. The universe where pine is scum just has really really different features than the universe where he isn't.

I hope to get some better footing after vla

[popsofctown]

Pine + hito team
We did it boys
I guess I'll gamble on the mom and pop looking coffee shop that is inside the convention center since cephrir is so useless to me.

[popsofctown]

You will receive an update on how the coffee was and I promise the update will somehow be alignment indicative

[popsofctown]

Fakegod can you force replace cephrir with his SO tyia

[popsofctown]

LLD seems like someone who would kill Alisae and I am kind of less fond of her d2 play. She's pushing for an already popular wagon and if we don't get more info out of d2 and pine flips green we are in trouble.

She doesn't feel like she's sorting other slots. Really it could even be a bus, just the strategy of, go ham on someone D1, go ham on someone else D2, go ham on yet another person D3.. if she's tunneling it will be harder to read her.

I don't actually know LLD or anyone else in thread for that. Hito and imp have been ages

[popsofctown]

This coffee is top sweet and maybe that's my fault for getting a "girly" drink but in my defense I have a cold and need to be able to drink it fast to help with it

[popsofctown]

Maybe I caught a cold from the stress of not having this game solved

[popsofctown]

There you go

[popsofctown]

Implo bus the scum

[popsofctown]

My school didn't have hand dryers check your privilege

[popsofctown]

My school didn't have hand dryers check your privilege

UR PROBABLY TOWN WHAT ARE YOU DOING TODAY

I may eventually vote Pine, but I don't want to see the day end soon. Haschel is definitely my runner up.

S_S seems too scummy to be scum in his lack of pushes. Scum often play by " I need to push anything very interesting even when I know everything every 3 pages, everything medium interesting even when I know everything every 5 pages, and even if I don't genuinely find anything interesting I need to come up with something every 7 pages", where town often play by "I'm gonna push everything that looks interesting given I don't know anything whenever it happens". S_S is failing both metrics but I think failing the former even harder. Meta might matter a lot for that it's something I might look into when I'm not v/la

I cant remember anything s_s has done this game either

[popsofctown]

50% Lynch rate is p good

[popsofctown]

If pine is town his reads are bad 71% of the time or something.
I've had people misread me in a way I found to be a town-driven thought process but this is not one of those times

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I mean again we run into the question of whether Pine is bad at playing town, again. I don't really remember him so I'm giving him average abilities in the dark so he should not read lhf farming as scummy the way D1 was played. Implosion would have been a really easy Lynch but I was genuinely unsure how he'd flip. Xyzzy was an easy target not for posting nothing alignment indicative but for posting very very little alignment indicative and what little was posted being very scummy. Its hard not to Lynch that.

I'm worried that Pine increased his confirmation bias triggers by reading this entire game at once because he was

queueing for other games instead of playing this one

and made this BoP on him less reliable but there's not much I can do about it.


Neither of our flipped townies drew conclusions about my slot the way Pine did. Alisae's remarks were far more authentic.

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Xyzzy's misLynch was not facile reasons to the point I would sr someone for being offwagon

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Hypocrisy is not a scumtell

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Hito is kinda scummy

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I will post with energy and gusto when I am not trying to play a magic tournament through an ear infection.

I scumread hitogoroshi's uncertainty about cyanjet's slot.

ghostwritten pregame posts

seriously?

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Your son won't be born early he will be born exactly when he intends to be born.

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Also I think hito is townier for that very unnecessary post, but I already was heading that way

I actually agree with this. Or the first part at least.

Why would you say "actually"? Cephrir's statement is almost tautological, for the principles hito has stated throughout the game (posting is harder as scum, counterfactuals, etc)

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S_S if I could scare and intimidate you into offering a Pine alternative whom would it be?

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Did effing nobody play mafia here yesterday? I was coughing up my left lung.
Do we need to Lynch pine just for game pacing?

Cephrir's play all game has been a dotted line silhouette of the town play we all know he should be doing I feel like.

Is it gambler's fallacy to say that if all of you are so flipping passive in the aggregate, we had to have gotten to that point by townPinewIRLprobs+2passiverscumslots+severalLessActiveThanAverageTownies?

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Throw your odes and oaths into the bonfire of the forked tongue incantation

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Please take a moment to review the safety card in the pocket in front of you. Your seat cushion also functions as a flotation device. Keep in mind that the nearest exit may be behind you

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Get Behind Me Satan!!!

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VOTE: Vote: Something_Smart

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Your last post you promised to reread, Haschel or not. Did this transpire?

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Best wishes HC

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VOTE: Pine

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FakeGod mod every game I ever play for the rest of my life

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Don't blacklist Blake Belladonna her name is kawaii

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I dumbtelled everyone you gotta townlock me now

I think we should lynch implosion

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I had night1 rose and it deflected a nightkill but I rolled 33% n1 rose 33% n2 rose 33% n3 rose. I think skewing that higher towards night one might have been correcter play

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still mad at hito for not blindly powersheeping my cyanjet read

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thank fuck my last blake game was a win

ya done good. you were right today and yesterday you were wrong in a committal way that I was still able to use for game-solving. nice job.

also looking back I found this funny

also some shades of meta here in that this is part of a theory disagreement ceph and I have had across three games now about whether someone having no interaction with the reads of the people THEY town read is suspicious. [it caught wickedjester scum in 17 kilos, but wicked was doing a much stronger variant of it than implo is doing so I can't harass ceph about it too much.] so anyway I think ceph town is actually a pretty strong read.

I think cohesion tell is lookin stronger and stronger the more I look for it. People voting on someone their town reads aren't without trying to sell them, figure out why their TRs don't want their target, etc. seems to be reasonably reliable

ok did I verbally abuse you enough for not cohering with me on cyanjet-read for you to TR me

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maf already have incentive to pick rose tbh, rose isn't bad for them
tho I would like to see rose being upgraded to a 1-shot bp that isn't locked to a specific day for maf

I'm not sure whether this makes it optimal to hypoclaim your night # if rose so that failed shots on scum can be treated as investigates. Particularly when you get about 5 roses 4 guns.


I'm really excited about any setup that emphasize dayplay as heavily as this one, but I don't usually care for pregame decisionmaking. This setup seems "balanced enough". Maybe you can cut just one townie because the probability the guns and roses switches the odd/even state seems pretty real as it is.

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The problem for deciding whether to pick gun or rose is analogous to "El Farol Bar problem": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem. I've seen the problem posed a different way where twenty people simultaneously submit a card that says "no" or "yes" and they all win a billion dollars if exactly 1 player submits a yes.
El Farol Bar problem isn't broken or anything but it's kinda boring and the higher your awareness that you should probably be submitting a probability-based mixed strategy instead of incorporating player preferences the less meaningful the mechanic will add fun to the game the way a "U-pick" does.
In this particular run of the game my mixed strategy solution was like 99% rose 1% gun because the probability that FakeGod's RL friends picked gun seemed 50% each to me. So I didn't even bother rolling for a chance of holding a gun. But I would expect this to happen eventually after enough runs of the game.

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Like hito says I think you are aiming for a 2:1 ratio of roses to guns, but having missing roses seems far more tragic than having missing guns so the solution is probably somewhere around 75% gun.

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Yeah scum definitely autopick gun but that is fine

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I think if you joined a guns and roses setup full of experienced players and never picked gun ever it'd just be incorrect. You could tweak your dice roll some but you should help the town out in trying to reach the ideal number of vig shots. You can shoot a walking mislynch or even shoot randomly

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I had night1 rose and it deflected a nightkill but I rolled 33% n1 rose 33% n2 rose 33% n3 rose. I think skewing that higher towards night one might have been correcter play

Word, N5 rose was clearly the correct pick!

I'm pretty sure town should just be N1 Rose/Gun. Let mafia pick N1 rose if they want to.

Thank you town for pulling out the win, and thank you FG for the excellent modding as always.

This might be right.

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I vigged 4 scum in 6 shots the only time I played vig.

I think college age pops is an OP vig but he does not exist today necessarily.

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It is hard to feign an opinion cause like I don't think I actually care if the town winrate is 50%, I don't think I will like the setup no matter what the numbers are tweaked to, and yet I'm going to pre-in no matter what if FakeGod is the one running it

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trading with LLD was p good Pine

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RC how do you play 20 games and watch another 30