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Post #3927 (isolation #201) » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:44 am
Postby Micc »
Slaxx used a rolestop on Aaron. I believe that means a factional nightkill on Aaron should have been stopped. Me (or you) being a ninja would not be able to kill through the rolestop. Would need to be strongman + ninja or equivalent
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Post #3932 (isolation #202) » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:50 am
Postby Micc »
Like this game has an encryptor despite the OP saying that all PT’s have Daytalk.
Setup is obviously meant to be a big F you to anyone trying to speculate about it. Add in shaky normal guidelines and this really has been an awful experience.
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Post #3952 (isolation #205) » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 am
Postby Micc »
A second informed scum flip kinda throws that argument out the window for me. Sure it’s unlikely you predicted that action, but so is Menalque being ninja + strongman.
I’m inclined to ignore the mechanics the more I think about this.
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Post #3979 (isolation #206) » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:13 am
Postby Micc »
you mean strongman + ninja?
like none of it adds up regardless of how you think about the mechanics
either icon and his scumteam executed a fantastic fakeclaim gambit using whatever information they had from being informed....or menal/micc have a powerful set of scum abilities to offset crazy huge amounts of town power.
its probably the second one but icon's claim has been ridiculously messy to the point it would be embarrassing to lose to.
i'm going to finally hash out what i see in menalque's iso over the next 24 hours and likely vote based on that. i think slaxx's words to ignore the mechanics still ring true today.
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Post #3983 (isolation #208) » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 pm
Postby Micc »
Spoiler:
In post 337, Menalque wrote:I don’t think that plank is really playing the game yet so I don’t think what they’ve done is AI really
Like the toxicity and lack of effort is +scum but then the utter lack of caring about relationships is +town
But it’s not really bounded by any sense of expectation on what their play should be like which is why I’m still null there until they actually do something
In post 523, Menalque wrote:I think plank is probably town because of how pedantically focused they’ve been on being called a cunt which seems like a really weird thing to obsess over as scum and to make into a major issue
It feels kinda gross reading them off that but can’t really help it
That said, I still want to lynch them so that this can’t be an issue further down the line
If y’all think I’m the fundamental problem here I’m okay with being lynched instead but I strongly suspect that plank will have another 5 page meltdown with someone even if I’m dead seeing as he’s managed two in less than 24 hrs
I liked these posts from menalque originally. The first is a reasonable analysis of the game state at the time. Something that I wouldn't put outside of menalque's scum range, but not something that looks like him perusing a mislynch. His town read on UT after the conflict is something I agreed with too. The proposition to lynch between himself and UT regardless as a method to lessen conflict is something that I don't think made sense for the gamestate. It hadn't really been proven that the conflict would dominate the game for more than a few hours. It's possible this is a mislynch push from menalque where he knows he has an edge due to strong relationships with the playerlist and is likely to win a 1v1.
Spoiler:
In post 880, Menalque wrote:Okay my phone is at 2% battery rn so I’m gonna finish later
In post 973, Menalque wrote:In fairness I actually can’t see this forum from main page rn so maybe they don’t realise they’re lynched?
In post 1029, Menalque wrote:I’m about a mile behind but on the flip side I had a p amazing weekend so there’s that
I may catch up tonight but also I’m worried that’s gonna mean that I stay up til 3 when I wanted to get to bed early, so more likely I’ll do it tomorrow as I’m no longer going skiing
In post 1030, Menalque wrote:Also UNVOTE: as I assume that my fakehammer gambit did not result in bugs outing themself as scum or day would be over
This sequence is pretty interesting. Menalque rattles off some questions to the playerlist while in catchup mode before stepping away for a phone charge. He comes back with a fake hammer on bugspray followed by some fishing for a reaction that never comes. After that menalque goes a day without posting and comes back still behind.
My question here is what is town! menalque thinking about? The questions to bji and Arron and his pointing out of pine's lack of posting are things menalque doesn't really come back to. The L-1 vote that he played off as a hammer shows a familiarity with the game state that doesn't really match the rest of his posting. Also, does anyone really expect to catch scum with this gambit? The secret was out before the target made it back to the thread, as it often is. Wouldn't town menalque be making better use of his time trying to get an understanding of the gamestate than fishing for a reaction from bugspray?
I wouldn't describe this stuff as scum indicative, but I do think it would be helpful for menalque to give a response for what he was thinking about at this part of the game.
I think bob is consistently pushing slots that look scummy rather than that necessarily are scummy and I’m reminded quite a lot from ISO skimming him of his ISO in tris’ mini normal
In post 1054, Menalque wrote:Okay I’m not letting myself get sucked in here or I’ll be here forever
Pls vote bob while I sleep and I’ll make the deal that you’ll retroactively appreciate why your vote was good after I explain more tomorrow?
I don’t think chem flips scum at this point because there’s we’ve been stalling out in that direction for days and I would expect his partners to be doing something, even if that something was hard bussing, rather than just letting the lynch default there while not even getting credit — the corollary to this and also scummy given the reaction to chem repping in is if chem is scum that scum were on super early (icon, GL, bji) at a glance, and so were gonna get credit without needing to push later
I think that the reaction from bob in particular and also but less so from icon/looker is concerning in that there seems to be a late push to make sure that chem gets flipped which makes me think of scum worried they’re losing their D1 mislynch — which is, let’s not forget, fundamentally a lurker lynch — due to a player repping in who may actually obvtown. Which means that continuing to push the lynch later would look really bad or would mean having to give up on lynching a slot they did a bunch of groundwork on
In post 1116, Menalque wrote:@GL from skimming this page are you townreading bob? If so why?
In post 1114, Menalque wrote:I don’t think chem flips scum at this point because there’s we’ve been stalling out in that direction for days
yeah the wagon has been stalling for days
and the moment chemist reps in
the wagon clears and looper wagon grew faster then you could say 'wowzers'
i'm not sure how you townread that exactly
I mean I don't want to lynch looker I want to lynch bob, although looker is in my "concerning" pile of people
and this isn't really what I'm saying: I'm saying that the stalling out on chem!slot indicates town I think. the wagon clearing on him is NAI
but I think chemist is a relatively easy read and I don't know why you want to commit to lynching him so hard when he's likely to be readable in a few days and there are other equally scummy slots (again, such as bob, who I'll get to once I finish catch up)
unless you think that chem!slot is miles scummier than anyone else in which case why?
In post 1121, Menalque wrote:and this isn't really what I'm saying: I'm saying that the stalling out on chem!slot indicates town I think. the wagon clearing on him is NAI
i disagree on this, I think the stalling out usually indicates a scummy slot where town disagrees on and scum obviously isn't gonna help push
if chem is scum, and scum was on wagon, this was a great time for them to evacuate the buss on hop on looker
ofcourse nothing was stopping them from doing so earlier, i'm not very sure hmmm
I disagree, I think stalling out is slightly +town because it shows that scum are probably okay with that lynch happening and they know that if they just wait it out the top wagon is fairly likely to go through under deadline pressure so they have very little incentive to expose themselves by pushing that lynch when that makes them look worse in endgame
but admittedly, that does depend on a level of sophistication from scum players and the ability to resist pushing an easy mislynch
and yeah, I think your final point is good analysis, why don't scum create a counter wagon earlier or try to divert?
In post 1122, Menalque wrote:I don't like your unwillingness to re-evaluate chem!slot based on game state icon, but I'm vining with you pretty hard on page 27
it's not that i'm unwilling to re-evaluate chemist
i said that his catchup feels very survivalistic and i don't like it
the fact that looker wagon grew so fast after his own wagon got stalled feels scum indicative
you mean scum!indicative for chem right?
In post 1128, Iconeum wrote:@menal, i'll have that done in the next 24 hours as well as your prev question wrt bji
in the meanwhile, can you reread chemist iso and see what i mean about him being survivalistic and not really diggin into why looper is scum? it's literally 'oh hey looper opening post is scummy', and how he referred to bugs 'good job on your vote there' that feels very off tonally
dude I'm about 400 posts or something behind, I'm just trying to catch up chronologically
if I can I'll look at chem's ISO as well but rn my priority is trying to be informed on what everyone has been doing the last 3-4 days while I haven't been here
In post 678, bob3141 wrote:Wilky woudl you describe your answers as defensive?
In post 679, bob3141 wrote:Also wilky when you say you get better as you go on. Are you infect not simply setting up an excuse for why your on mislynches? As you infact dodged the question. I was asking are you sayign you get better as lynching as teh days goes on? and why shoudl we not think your simply setting up an excuse for reads that turn out bad?
In post 680, bob3141 wrote:Wilky whey do you think my question to ico was answered? Why did you feel the need to comment on it in a post that had no relevance to it? Are you scum reading me for it? as you voted for ulti in it.
Do you agree with what players are sayign about your posts?
I will try to get something more thorough up on bob later but I think this is a good example of what I don't like from him this game:
I think he's deliberately trying to frame things in a certain way and not approaching wilky in good faith here. Like the suggestion is being made through asking the question that wilky is being defensive "excuse me sir have you stopped beating your wife?" it's the same idea
and then also suggesting that he's dodging questions and is scum setting up excuses. rather than looking at that and taking it for what it is which is pretty NAI -- lots of players don't actually get better as the game goes on, but they believe they do as they do hit scum more often due to there simply being a higher chance of rand!voting scum. I think wilky was also quite a mislynchable slot here due to low content, and I think scum!bob is trying to take advantage of that
I also think this is reminiscent of his spam questioning from here and general lack of commitment to stuff
In post 1138, Iconeum wrote:menal you could just read chemist iso real quick
it's not that long
yes, I could, but me doing that precludes me from reading the rest of the game which is more useful for me overall
like I know that you would like me to do that one particular thing and I get why, but I'm going shortly to do some other work as I've already mentioned and that's not where I'm focussing my attention yet
In post 675, wilky wrote:Still think the UP slot is scum for the earlier flip flopping.
GL is town, menalque is town. BJI i'm thinking town.
I'm gonna reread datisi in a bit but I do like their post casing looker.
From above makes me lean scum on looker.
Still gotta sort everyone else will also give that a go later.
how did you coem to conclusion of menal being town. All i can see in regards to menal is you asking someone else about his meta. You even say it was to help sort menal but at no point have you directly tried to sort menal. Yet you all ready decide he is town
You give much more progression BJI but next to none on menal. All you come up with is he didnt need to get involved in a conversation. First why do you think sscum would not of got involved like menal. And why do you feel that it is making you feel strongly about town menal
also dislike this: I don't think direct interaction is necessary to form a read on someone. the fact that the read being referred to is on me is immaterial
like instead of just openly approaching wilky on the read and trying to get him to expand on where it comes from --which he does also do tbf-- he focuses on how it's like the read comes out of nowhere and paints that as a scummy thing to do, when there's no evidence for the read having come out of nowhere, just that it's unstated. it's stretching to keep painting wilky as scummy
In post 701, bob3141 wrote:largly null for most players. most havent said enough to get a read on the game of the game as a hole.
Although for now i think i got the info i need from this line of questioning.
Guilitylion what do you think of wilkys answers to my questions. Your also voting for wilky and said you agreeed on one of my questions i put to wilky. With you making deliberation on the post i was asking wilky about.
I think bob has been avoiding giving reads throughout because it's much easier to fake a tunnel and to avoid engaging with the rest of the thread than it is to convincingly have fake reads on the entire PL and to keep track of how you're meant to be reading each person and what your progression should be
If you think he is scum. Do you not want to be on chemist counter wagon? Is that reason you want your vote to be somewhere else.
menal dont forget you have never read me right once. In fact most players have poor read rate against me.
because I think you're more likely to be scum than looker and the fact that you're voting together on wilky is probably less scum!equity as a team
again, this is horribly bad faith. you're trying to suggest that there's a separate motivation to me having my vote on you other than me scum reading you. you've done the same thing to wilky earlier in the game
I also don't like you trying to coast by on "you haven't read me correctly in the past". unless I'm mistaken, we have 2 completed games together. in one of them, I did have you correctly within my PoE by the end, you were my second top scum read at that point after I'd already voted for 2 scum that game. second game yes, I misread you, but mostly because I was still thinking you weren't my top scum choice in the other game and I identified that there were differences between the two and that you were more likely scum than town because I thought you were town in tris'.
but overall this is just a weak argument? like yes, I haven't read you perfectly in the past, but that's no reason to think I can't read you here especially when the sample is 2 games
The next part of Menalque's iso is well defined by strong pushing of bob and some defending of chemist's slot. The ground work for "scum off the wagon" starts getting laid down here when menalque defends chemist using the stagnant wagon argument. This is something that will come up continuously in menaluqe's iso, and the think I think is most indicative of him being scum. Also, this push on bob is much stronger than I think a lot of people considered for the duration of the game. The gamestate is scum at or near L-1 with little time before deadline and menalque is solo pushing a player who eventually flipped town. It's not a good association at all.
The stated reasons that menalque gives for pushing bob are among the things that stood out to me as town on D4. There are pieces of analysis like 1114 and 1139 and some others I didn't quote because they already had spoiler tags that show analysis that is hard to replicate as scum. I don't know that menalque's scum range is that wide, but I think it's possible. But moving past the analysis and into his intentions, there is scum motivation to push a chemist counterwagon here. Either he moves the lynch off his partner or he sets up a good endgame for his team by starting the "scum off the wagon" narrative. A narrative that is especially good for him since he finds a way to sneak onto the wagon himself in a deadline crunch.
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Post #4001 (isolation #211) » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:01 pm
Postby Micc »
I did not start considering any Menalque scum teams until D5. But when I did there was a very clear picture.
I’m gunna paint if for you starting with the spoiler wall I posted earlier. All I ask is that you read it and seriously consider the things I’m saying.
Also it might take me another 24-36 hours to finish because vintage cube is up on mtgo and that’s really distracting.
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Post #4021 (isolation #212) » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:06 am
Postby Micc »
The tl:dr of want I wanted to show by going through menalque’s iso is that you mislynching me in lylo is something that’s been set up this whole game. Sorry I’ve been kinda distracted and also unmotivated about spelling it out. Hoping to hit it hard tonight.
But Menalque snuck onto the day 1 wagon and the spent then middle part of the game simultaneously pushing for lynches off the wagon and avoiding pushing me if at all possible. Countless times Menalque posted that if this doesn’t work it’s micc tomorrow without ever actually coming back to me. He played a big part of picking bob over bji on the key D4 lynch that brought us to lylo. And he’s the clear answer to who would actively chose to keep you alive twice when you could have been nightkilled.
Pedit: okay willing to lynch in any of those 4 names -AFF
@icon, this is why, if you have a look
If the reason chem wagon stalled so hard was that scum weren’t willing to get on, which I think is more plausible than scum getting on super early (esp with GL now flipping town meaning it would have to be you or bji in that universe) then it means scum were resisting the wagon all the way through
Of those other names, one is self resolving, so he’s out of contention for today
I still think plank!slot is just town after fighting with him
Which leaves 2/3 scum in (pine, micc, slaxx)
I’d be kind of surprised if all the scum got on looker one after another, which I think makes it more likely that we have pine!scum + 1 scum in (micc, slaxx)
Here is the start of menaque's push for finding scum off the wagon. A group that doesn't include bji or himself. This is the thinking that lead to mislynches on both Pine and slaxx, and has always been the biggest case against me. Remember that everyone familiar with emps meta was strongly town reading emps prior to the day 1 lynch. The argument to look off the D1 wagon makes sense and is something that me and other people have given menalque town credit for. But it's important to remember how menalque removed himself from this very pool, a deadline jump onto chemist that he never really justified. Putting this together his jump to chemist and the ensuing direction make sense as a scum motivated game plan to get him and bji to the endgame.
but why is Pine a better lynch then emps/micc today
mecc lynch provides much more information
Bc it does a better job of reducing universes imo
If pine!scum, I think it’s very likely that I’m correct and the world we’re in is where all the resistance to chem!wagon was from scum staying off
But pine!town means that if that’s true then all 3 scum were on the counterwagon which seems, idk, excessively bold as a D1 strat when you know that looker flipping green means chem prob gets lynched D3 at the latest and that your associations will look terrible
So pine!town means seriously looking at the wagon again to see if anyone bussed — particularly in dats/bob but also at you/bji, I think looker is prob town regardless
Whereas emps!scum means we’re still prob lynching pine the next day
But emps!town doesn’t reduce the universes, as I think emps!town means it could still be (pine, slaxx) and I think makes it easier for scum to stay UTR as we keep working off an incorrect model of what happened D1
In post 1669, Iconeum wrote:@Menal, you are arguing to me about worlds and gamestates.
Pine hasn't played this game yet. Lynching him changes neither gamestate NOR worlds.
You know what does?
Lynching emps/Pine
And if that flips scum, ya'll lynch menal next.
But it does do that icon: if Pine!town then we have to decide if there actually were all 3 scum simultaneously pushing on looker against a scum wagon
Because that is terrible optics
It is possible because there was a lot of difficulty with chem!wagon, but it seems unlikely because it’s so short termist
So lynching pine today and resolving that is massively beneficial for tomorrow, as it forces greater reconsideration of the wagon and I think implies bussing in bob/dats most likely
The next part of D2 is menalque pretty aggressively pushing for pine to be lynched over me. Me alive is a good thing for scum as I'm a likely mislynch. Central to the reasoning for lynching pine is that a town flip would bring him back to looking on the D1 wagon. Fast forward through a pine lynch and into days 3 and 4 and we will not see menalque look back to the D1 wagon as was implied here.
In post 1715, Datisi wrote:Mena
Say we lynch pine today and he flips town
Who are you going after tomorrow
Not sure
Probably still micc, but I’d wanna start pressing you/bob more, and to re-examine bji and icon
Obviously mass claim brought a lot of new information into play D3, but this is another line of thinking we will not see menalque come back to despite pine flipping town.
Another sequence that shows menalque strongly favoring pine over me. Even choosing to only give intent despite that I had already claimed and given my last will. Menalque had a vested interest in keeping me alive for a future mislynch, and as the game moves forward that theme will continue.
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Post #4026 (isolation #215) » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:11 am
Postby Micc »
The story of day 3 begins with menalque actually pushing me but conversation quickly becoming dominated by the mass claim. In hindsight this Slaxx lynch was not a great move and its worth looking at who was pushing the lynch. Flipped scum bji was off wagon and skeptical of the lynch the whole wagon. Making the assumption that there was scum pushing Slaxx is indicative of menalque who was pretty firmly pushing the wagon whereas Icon and I were also pretty skeptical.
Day 4 is the point to really start asking why I'm not the lynch. Everyone has me in their solve yet I receive no votes outside of Mathblade wavering around. The scum team is making an active decision to not lynch me at this point. Look at bji pushing bob for the whole phase. With the consensus solve being micc/bob/bji, bji is chosing to vote the not me, not him candidate. This is to keep me alive for a later lynch.
The other thing to look at is what I'd doing day 4. I eventually land on bji, something extremely unproductive for a bji/me team. We were already being put together as a team so there is nothing for me to gain from bussing him. I regret that my hammer was not great, but if you look at why it happened its because there was heavy resistance to voting bji still on day 4. Resistance from menalque and icon and to a lesser extent mathblade. One of these people resisting the scum lynch is the other scum. It's not me, who landed on the scum player on my own accord and could have easily landed on the town player instead in order to make a more natural progression as scum.
Arguing with the vote analysis for day 5 feels liable to wifom, but i do think I look better here than menalque here too. When it comes to the N5 kill, I agree I have no great options as scum. The best option would probably be swinging math to vote icon. As scum menalque has to choose who he's most likely to swing in his favor. I think there's an argument that math votes me on an icon kill, but the setup all along has been for icon to vote me. Looker and Mathblade both died over icon to make this happen.
Let's also remember Looker's weird switch to voting menalque D4 before he died. Prior to that Looker had been convinced enough that I was scum that he shut down interaction with me. For me to be scum I missed a big opportunity to get Looker to expand on that switch and smear menalque, something that would come in handy down the road. Instead I'm town and just hammered bob at the deadline seeing as the bji wagon was breaking up. Maybe not my best play, but not a scum motivated one.
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Post #4037 (isolation #218) » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:36 am
Postby Micc »
In post 4032, Iconeum wrote:Whoevern is scum i think you did a good job
Menal for'being townread all game
Micc for getting to this point as scum is amazing
Don’t forget that me being here as Town is pretty amazing too. The question needs to be answered, why am I here? Menalque brought me here for you to vote. Every time I was to be the lynch he helped move it away.
Please reconsider if the things you’ve Town read him for all game are good reasons. Would they hold up for someone who is not a good friend of yours? I get the sense that you’re feeling like it’s Menalque, but having a hard time with that meaning you’ve been wrong for big patches of the game, and also that you have to lynch a friend.
It took a lot of trust for me to not vote you for consistent mishandling of mechanics through the game. But I got there. My hope is that you can do the same for me. This is the last campaigning I’ll do. If you want more from me please ask.
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Post #4060 (isolation #221) » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:55 pm
Postby Micc »
the worst wrote:
In post 3904, Micc wrote:I can kinda see how icon could be telling truth here given the worsts answers to my questions this game hasn’t given me confidence about his understanding of normal guidelines. But it’s way more likely that shakyness comes from answering questions about roles that aren’t in his game.
Indeed my knowledge of normal guidelines is fairly limited. I like researching etc. but I'm far from authority on it. I'm fairly surprised the roleblocking issue in this game wasn't noted in review but it was extremely explicit and it was suggested to me to proceed (paraphrasing) as though this game is a semi-open and roles Just Work the way I interpret them to Just Work.
So I'm kind of
actively aware that the rb issue should have been picked up in review
but also not keen on contradicting role PMs
and also want to make sure my answers to questions are consistent with the way this game works, at cost to conforming with normalcy (if necessary only obviously; as opposed to the inverse)
hesitancy in answering some questions was a misunderstanding about the breadth of the semi-openness of the setup, moreso than issues with roles which aren't in the game. given post review there seemed to be some ambiguity in the way roleblockers/ascetics COULD interact with investigatives I didn't think it was appropriate to answer. it's now been made clear that the intention is for there to be no ambiguity & for approach to be consistent
but basically yes
I'm definitely not a Normal Game Pilot. unfortunately I'm just behind the wheel of Mini Adequately-Normal 2119.
Just want to say, I have absolutely no hard feelings about how any of this went down. If any of my posting came across as criticism of your moderation it was really just frustration at the situation I was in. My hope is that with a little bit of work the NRG can clear some stuff up to lessen the frustration of normal players and mods going forward.
I am slightly disappointed that the dead thread had been spoiled going into 3p lylo. I would have liked to see where people would have landed with respect to understanding the mechanics and also just natural reads. I'm not sure what I could have done differently here, besides maybe get to the correct solve a little quicker. I always agreed that my eventual lynch was probably necessary, but am I supposed to just roll over? The only thing I would do differently in hindsight is stick to my bji vote D4, which is another way of saying I standby everything I did this game while sober
I did enjoy this despite it being absolutely agonizing knowing I was being setup for a later mislynch for the entire game. Thank you everyone for the game!
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Post #4064 (isolation #222) » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:11 pm
Postby Micc »
same to you bji. This game was full of people I've enjoyed having in my modded games but never really played with. In your case it had been quite some time between meetings but I'm glad we crossed paths again.
