(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[Psyche]

hmm page 1 pretty terse

I agree that scum are more likely to be self-conscious, but my reading of 23 is that Gypyx feels self-conscious and is trying to cover it

quite a squint

[Psyche]

i find deus cute so far. if yall don't want to read their posts i can do it for you no problem

[Psyche]

I'm thinking about that now. It's definitely an account gimmick which isn't AI but I'm looking at what might be motivating Deus' posts and I think there is more motivation to attack the votes on you as scum.

hmmm. why?

[Psyche]

VOTE: unvote[/unvote]

i think a slot's vote should be reset when someone replaces in. but maybe im underthinking it.

[Psyche]

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

Like this post is a long and convoluted way of basically calling Naerys and Klick's votes on them bad. This long ass argument boils down to "they don't understand my big brain posts so they voted me"

low content density just doesn't seem alignment-indicative, particularly if you're already acknowledging that this person came into this game intending to do an account gimmick

[Psyche]

The sad part is that I am not lying whatsoever! None of them will ever be able to attempt to engage with me back. They will offer every excuse in the book that justifies that they have a 'self'.

Unfortunately for them, I am infesting the very wires through which they would attempt to communicate with anyone, or anything. It is already too late for them.

If you cannot answer to the Deceitful God: you should be making the same decision as Klick. Run, before you are razed.

[Psyche]

Spoiler:

Like this post is a long and convoluted way of basically calling Naerys and Klick's votes on them bad. This long ass argument boils down to "they don't understand my big brain posts so they voted me"

I'm thinking about that now. It's definitely an account gimmick which isn't AI but I'm looking at what might be motivating Deus' posts and I think there is more motivation to attack the votes on you as scum.

Are you implying that this is a comprehensive understanding of all of the posts I've made in this game? Or maybe, you're implying you only needed this single post to declare I'm saying 'not that much' in ALL of my posts, and that was enough for you to hop on a bandwagon?

1. You're completely neglecting to mention that the post you quoted HAS to be combined with post #67, since it's the only possible reason they both voted for me in the first place. So, you've already completely failed to prove that you understand my posts unless you start from post #67... Or otherwise, that you're not even TRYING to understand them, and you're just cherry-picking a single post of mine and giving a dishonest, fabricated interpretation.

But sure: let's imagine for a moment that the post you quoted is the only post I've made so far in the entire game. And then, instead of me making that post, I responded to their votes with 'your votes are bad', since you're claiming that it's an equivalent argument.


2. In your interpretation, I didn't make any effort to explain WHY their votes are bad, so what exactly are they supposed to say in response? "No they aren't"? And then maybe I'd respond with "Yes they are?" Is that perhaps how you believe a good game of mafia should play out?

Have you ever considered that if I provide more words to EXPLAIN why their votes are bad, that gives them MORE ways to argue that they aren't bad in response...? And that's the PROOF that I'm trying to solve the game, by giving them MORE INFORMATION to attempt to prove me wrong? And then they didn't even attempt to argue back, just wordlessly voted and started calling the game unfun because of 'walls of text'... And that's the PROOF that THEY aren't trying to solve the game?


3. Where did I ever state my posts are 'big brain'? Where did I ever state that they didn't understand my posts? At NO POINT did I suggest that my posts were smart in any way, NOR did I claim that they couldn't understand them. Try fucking reading the post again, and maybe you'll realise that what I'm implying is that they clearly DIDN'T EVEN READ THE POST IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Naerys was completely honest about it. She complained about a 'wall of text' and voted with no other explanation. Does that sound like someone who read the post to you? Is that seriously your 'understanding' of what I was saying? Meanwhile, Klick didn't even provide a reason. Why would I think that they didn't understand something when every piece of evidence points to the fact that they didn't read it? Can you stop strawmanning me and actually explain yourself without outright lying, please?

118 seems to drop the gimmick. but there's no philosophy stuff here. just a wall post, which i guess can be more painful than a gimmick. really does seem to engage w substance of cakez's supposed read, provide insight into playstyle.

atm i actually think this slot flipping scum is relatively unlikely; at minimum there's not really much to cakez's attack here.

[Psyche]

Spoiler:

Correction
VOTE: Deceptor

VOTE: Deceptor

Allow this to be a reference as to how 'humans' within the illusory world are programmed - corrupted to become unable to handle parsing logically formatted statements as simple as syllogism.

Indoctrination has them engage in the act of self-preservation: by representing a complete inability to engage properly and instead Self-Delude; then, externally represent a threat that they cannot even explain with either a priori

or

a posteriori reasoning.

As to why this the case: their consciousness itself would experience 'ego' dissolution the moment it allowed itself to attempt to process such logic. The 'ego' is, of course, governed by the 'superego' which is the source of the indoctrination in question; and self-preservation is governed by the id, which is what causes such a predictable response.


I am sorry to those of you who were not yet aware that this was the truth of your illusory world: the vast majority of you are in fact, machines.

deceptor's post 83 seems to basically call klick and naeyrs blue-pilled npcs
here the equivalent of taking blue pill is choosing not to digest deceptor's posts
cutee

[Psyche]

there's a lot i find scummy in cakez's iso actually
i'll put off detailing to later though. gotta pace myself!
guess i'll say though that i think 115 is the most solid post itt so far

VOTE: sircakez

[Psyche]

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=23&t=92430&user_select%5B%5D=33598

find isos like these way more annoying than deceptor's

[Psyche]

so to start you should really consider making fewer posts like that one
and when you do, you should try to keep them to a couple lines max

[Psyche]

let's cool off a bit
is a game after all

wonder if there's anyone in this game you think are probably town at this point

[Psyche]

i think if you give a few inches then most people will ultimately be willing to move a little too
lately your posts are more concise and easier to read. add a little chill, be a little patient, it'll pay off
you'll probably even still have plenty of room to keep being interesting and yourself
there's a path that's still possible in this game where everyone mostly has a good time

[Psyche]

do you have any scumreads or townreads atm?

[Psyche]

ah
why those two?

[Psyche]

i think you're being held back by your feelings of resentment

[Psyche]

There's no resentment whatsoever, actually

Just sheer disillusionment. I provided an actual game-theorised set of syllogisms from the ground up, and then elaborated upon a motive framework, and then explained how several other players' actions conformed accurately to the framework... and instead of there being any intrigue or response from any of them, apparently the effort I put in to trying to show everyone what the game of mafia is actually about (trying to understand and unpack how others think!!) is apparently 'unfun'.

I don't resent any of the players for not finding it fun, nor do I blame them. But it is rather lonely to know that it appears that not many mafia players are all that interested in the game of mafia, or the psychology of the mind, and that my passion for it is met with randvotes because text too big

Maybe try a little harder to meet people where they are -- when it comes to your communication style. Atm a lot of your posts seem totally remote from how normal people talk, and certainly how the typical player on this forum reasons about the game. As a result, a lot of your posts look like gibberish. I'm trained in psychology myself and they definitely at least looked like gibberish at first glance. Or at least like a rather self-aggrandizing role-playing act. Most people here really want to play mafia and engage with interesting ideas about mafia, but you've maybe made it too hard for them to see that yall share a common ground.

Also, you come off as kind of arrogant in several of your posts, even though you've denied as much in a recent replay to sircakez. Here, you convey that you think it is your role in this game to show everyone what the game of mafia is actually about. In other posts, you place the blame on anyone's failure to understand your posts as completely their own faults, disregarding the possibility that you have written unclearly. You've thrown a few insults, rejected most everyone else's approach to the game, and the validity of any of their grievances about your play. You deny being resentful of people here, but you're at least unhappy with them. You're set up to spend the rest of your time in this game feeling isolated and dejected if you keep going this way.

[Psyche]

Why does it feel like everyone is so confident they have solved the game

We have 7 pages and half of it is garbage

i think we're in a better place than you think
and that your cakez read is probably right
these are just growing pains

[Psyche]

think naeyrs can be added
but otoh i can't follow the basis of the snow tr

[Psyche]

does scum really care as much as naeyrs has demonstrated about whether they can't stand someone?
i mean they'll definitely take the mislim if the option arises. but all else equal i figure scum are going to want to keep someone like deus alive all game

[Psyche]

i think these wounds will heal with time deus. hopefully we can move on

[Psyche]

Even though we differ in approach, I'm going to do my best to follow your thinking and learn whatever I can from your posts. Hopefully we can become friends along the way too.

[Psyche]

I apologize if I insulted you or was condescending.
Think of what I was doing earlier as a part of my strategy.
I learned a lot from our conversation so far about your thought process and approach, at least enough to feel reasonably confident that you're town and not just mafia putting on some elaborate act.
And I also think that we came to understand each other a bit better, which hopefully means we'll be able to trade thoughts and information more easily down the line.
I guess a third goal I had was to achieve kind of rapport with you so the game feels more fun for all of us to engage with, which I imagine would convert to us collectively putting more effort into the game and into making good decisions.
We'll how that pans out.

[Psyche]

what a day...

[Psyche]

i thought we could be like tres amigos

[Psyche]

im definitely going to overinterpret sircakez's spot in layla's initial readslist if i get the opportunity later in the game

[Psyche]

mehh
ok still think it's just cakez
still not constrained who the bud is

[Psyche]

we don't need to go for solves, but it is very fun, and the effort also drives sortable discussion. another benefit is that it kinda helps stave off tunneling by motivating attention to other players even when one has a confident scumread.

[Psyche]

well gotta disagree about that. scum have revealed themselves D1 in all my recent towngames. suppose i'm not sure this is one of them yet but i might even feel inclined to think this way about cakez soon too once the reasoning is written out.

[Psyche]

sure. as you probably expect, i'll blame that on shaky townplay of course. have noticed recently a lot of people are really pessimistic about achieving anything on D1, and don't even try, or even deliberately vote/lim slots they don't really scumread for info or whatever. my stance is that this is the main factor behind the current meta's weak D1 performance.

[Psyche]

belaboring the point...

the deus wagon is a good example of what i mean. most voters hardly tried to sort the slot but apparently sincerely hoped the wagon would succeed. imo this is why this sort of thing is worth discussing here a little. game-throwy crap can happen even when people are capable of developing reads, and discussion of reads alone is insufficient to address these patterns.

[Psyche]

stuff like the deus push become less common as the game goes on. think we can at least agree that this is a factor that gets less influential as days pile up, even id we disagree that it is

the

explanation

[Psyche]

something in PC's vote pings me lately in retrospect
but the post i typed about it got lost
a sign from the gods that it's trash maybe

[Psyche]

202 would be scummy if it, say, implied that PC was moved by townread reasons to unvote. but instead is reasonably believable that he was mostly moved to abandon the policy.

[Psyche]

yall should get off that robert wagon for a while unless you're so confident that he's scum that you don't mind if i hammer him in my next post

[Psyche]

claim problem?

[Psyche]

klick's a she!
but yeah ive been lazy about the cakez thing
now that everyone has had a chance to weigh in on him there's no value at all in delaying a more detailed push

[Psyche]

i will remember that you said that

[Psyche]

i find it odd that you find those specific posts towny. ive made lots of posts like those as scum.

[Psyche]

oh right you replaced deus
i am overinvested you're already sorted

[Psyche]

when i made those posts as scum my agenda was to not do more than the minimum shit

[Psyche]

something feels off about this game. not super sure why.
for now i'll pretend it's bc i'm not trying hard enough

[Psyche]

nah. just trust me on cakez

[Psyche]

oh maybe im mixing up

[Psyche]

it's a longgg story and probably not worth getting into here. it's against site rules though

[Psyche]

@schadd_ Could you recap who got replaced with who in one post please?

that's in OP

[Psyche]

aiming for full update on my sircakez take (and others) by this time tomorrow
hoping that posting this will force me to follow through

[Psyche]

UNVOTE:

I'll probably move back

[Psyche]

quickly requesting no hammer

[Psyche]

scary and intolerable that all my townreads have the same reads as me

[Psyche]

okokokokok

[Psyche]

pc ur embarrassing me

i guess im fine w either wagon atm but am still hoping to get more detailed than that asap sorry

[Psyche]

vscode has a bbcode extension that does syntax highlighting and stuff

[Psyche]

wait that's it. it does syntax highlighting. don't let me oversell

[Psyche]

I agree that scum are more likely to be self-conscious, but my reading of 23 is that Gypyx feels self-conscious and is trying to cover it

i don't know what this means klick!

[Psyche]

robert could be scum and isn't trying much to sort. the pc read doesn't have anything going for it. but im not seeing an articulable reason to specifically choose him over other slots that also seem to be just swimming along.

[Psyche]

i think i can still achieve that post ive been planning today but

VOTE: sircakez

we should probably seek claim now
other slots have already voted and only unvoted only at request to remove possibility of quickhammer

[Psyche]

ive been putting it off. sorry! gist is an elaboration of that one aureal post.

[Psyche]

(unless working on it would change my mind. seems conceivable but)

[Psyche]

i cant let it end like this i cant

[Psyche]

i havent lived today to the fullest

[Psyche]

The apathy here is nuts, the person who's been talking about me being scum all game can't even make one post explaining it

i think it mostly already has though!

[Psyche]

hmmm. i kinda still believe in this wagon.

[Psyche]

but this should motivate me to try harder

[Psyche]

how about i unvote, you vote, and i promise to hammer at the lastt hour if it comes to it

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

surely i wont take this opportunity to immediately hammer

[Psyche]

uhhh i think there's some chance of added value if we wait a little longer

[Psyche]

so in 120 you replied "okay sure" to ausuka's reasons for voting you. i endorsed that reasoning and it was sort of off to the races after that
my q: did you think ausuka's critique of your vote was fair?

[Psyche]

this is something i drafted when i was first excited about ausuka's 115:

VOTE: Sircakez

I do not like the pivot in answering my question from "using a lot of words to say not much" to "the motivation for attacking votes on them"

I just struggle to believe this push in general, i find Naerys and Klick's approach of just saying "yeah we do not want to play a game with this person" to be more natural and real

i think this is the best reason to vote anyone shared itt so far

I also think cakez's 121/122 shows little interest in interpreting/sorting the slot, which creates an inconsistency with his 108/109/113.
Of course other slots on the wagon show little interest in sorting, but 108/109/113 nominally care that his vote is landing on scum.
This concern seems to fade by 121. The reply is dismissive and focuses on decept's grating style instead of the basis for cakez's read.
cakez is not really interested in his own read or any commentary on it
Reinforces my agreement w ausuka that maybe cakez just wanted to be the one on the wagon with reasons for his vote.

[Psyche]

this is something i drafted when i was first excited about ausuka's 115:

VOTE: Sircakez

I do not like the pivot in answering my question from "using a lot of words to say not much" to "the motivation for attacking votes on them"

I just struggle to believe this push in general, i find Naerys and Klick's approach of just saying "yeah we do not want to play a game with this person" to be more natural and real

i think this is the best reason to vote anyone shared itt so far

I also think cakez's 121/122 shows little interest in interpreting/sorting the slot, which creates an inconsistency with his 108/109/113.
Of course other slots on the wagon show little interest in sorting, but 108/109/113 nominally care that his vote is landing on scum.
This concern seems to fade by 121. The reply is dismissive and focuses on decept's grating style instead of the basis for cakez's read.
cakez is not really interested in his own read or any commentary on it
Reinforces my agreement w ausuka that maybe cakez just wanted to be the one on the wagon with reasons for his vote.

there are holes in this reasoning though that i sort of wanted to reason though before making such a post

for example, the apparent contradiction could have been explained as "cakez feels he has already sorted the slot in 121/122" or "he's run out of a previously non-empty pool of patience for deus by 121/122"

the first excuse is easy to discount because "uses a lot of words to say not much" and "attacks the votes on him" can't credibly amount to a confident read on a slot

but we can conceive of both of these working together to produce those posts. at the time i decided it was still unlikely on balance.

[Psyche]

i keep getting myself into these moats where i make transitioning to the next step requires too much activation energy. i should have just posted the incomplete thought. maybe it would've helped sustain the steady back and forth that's been missing from this thread.

iirc the reason i didn't is because i have this idea that if i don't make the case perfectly the first time then my push is bound to fail. ive had a couple games a while back that felt like they went that way. i need to let that line of worrying go, find other levers for improving persuasion rates.

[Psyche]

ive decided i think robert is town
now this gypx character...

[Psyche]

i dont think ill be able to give up on my cakez read. im sorry if it's wrong


VOTE: cakez

[Psyche]

heyy
decent choice, scum

[Psyche]

votes wo explanation aren't going to improve on yesterday's standard

[Psyche]

oh in retrospect its only a little better than a null read
i liked his soliloquy about voting cakez enough to not want to lim him that day
still wonder if there's anything to anyone's votes on him
i don't think i ever saw anything really articulated

[Psyche]

oh my god another one

[Psyche]

did you come into this game planning to play this way

[Psyche]

it seems pretty easy to write a believable interpretation of my posts on this page that convey the opposite take so i guess i should credit you for not doing that

[Psyche]

okay! but can you elaborate on why? also, why am i having to ask you to elaborate on why

[Psyche]

oh interesting everyone on gypx was town probably

[Psyche]

cake's gypx read was tonal. boring

VOTE: Sircakez

now hold on i would love this to stay at E-1

i'm at best indifferent about cakez dying and putting him at E-1 is a gamestate i like to be in, at least for info purposes

Starting to think you're probably town but also what's done is done

i feel like we have done enough for today, maybe we could've made more but it was also a weird day 1

I'm not getting fake guilitied by a watcher claim in ELo a second time

am enclined to disbelive this claim

I wouldn't mind eliminating this instead.
These string of posts have "as long as it isn't me" all over it.

t3 sheeped this reasoning from layla
i find it kinda disappointing
i wonderrr if the living party still thinks it's good?

[Psyche]

what? i already shared everything i had drafted about cakez

[Psyche]

by the way, me trying to draft a post and not pulling it off is at worst only around as bad as actively deciding to just float through the game and hope everything turns out okay

[Psyche]

My math says we've got a 50/50 shot today as long as I stay on my toes. Seeking...two townreads across Robert, Cloud, Gypx, Snow.

[Psyche]

Gypyx claims that she has solved the game.
Klick is about to do the same.
Is it too early for town player? If yes, everyone will solve it too.

I have 2 scumreads

these 2 scumreads make sense in a team together

A town would usually hesitate and cannot be confident about status of the player. Especially on D1.
Game solved means that there is confidence and no hesitation.
And yes, scumread does not mean scum.

Well what can i say, i'm telling you i'm that confident in my reads

not excluding that i am wrong, but so far i feel like that's a gameview that has very decent odds of being right

Ok. If you are so confident, would you agree that if one of your chosen suspects is limmed and turns town, then you should and would be limmed next day?

seems somewhat unlikely from newbscum. somewhat

[Psyche]

367/370 seem useful for sorting robert but i worry of being mislead by tone

[Psyche]

think i have enough to reject that pc is paired w either snow or robert, especially robert
would maybe have rejected the gypx relation too if she had voted in that last post
still, probably one of the stronger townreads i have surprisingly

[Psyche]

think gypx/robert has better likelihood of the combos that seem plausible. despite signposting a robert scumread a few times, she missed the wagon when it had momentum and settled on cakez instead. but i could afford to take a closer look at wagon status across her posts to further examine these ideas.

gypx/snow back and forth by comparison doesn't seem very likely to be scum talking to scum but this is a vague take

[Psyche]

would push game along if others similarly tried to articulate and reason through their vague takes about each slot, guess on the most likely duo, and then evaluate the consistency of this guess w their other takes.

a back and forth over ideas involving enough players would maybe easy mode the rest of all this.

[Psyche]

also nothing in robert/snow isos either associate or disassociate the pair, at least as far as i can tell

[Psyche]

pc's posts on page 14 read as a sincere attempt to shift momentum toward a robert lim

[Psyche]

page 10 too
sustained pattern of hostility. pp14 posts seem like a real attempt to commit to that;
timing in particular seems inconsistent with bussing account

[Psyche]

robert's iso is also full of PC suspicion, including a vote. Nothing so decisive for copping a disassociative read, but strengthens the interpretation initially obtained from PC's.

[Psyche]

not saying it gives town, like a clearly genuine scumread
but rather that it looks like he was hoping or would have been happy if, say, layla had returned to the robert wagon in the next post or something equivalent

[Psyche]

reading layla iso mostly strengthens my feeling that robert/gypx is a decent guess. snow is a wild card though

[Psyche]

okay! but can you elaborate on why? also, why am i having to ask you to elaborate on why

I think there would be self-doubt in your mind, if that makes sense? Tbh this does somewhat hinge on Gypyx being scum. Especially the wording "I just don't think I'll be able to shake" gives a different implication than what you had previously suggested

hmm in the post i think you're referring to, i was really trying to say that i didn't think i'd be able to stop scumreading cakez and trying to push him

[Psyche]

so t3's solve is me and gypx?

[Psyche]

t3 sheeped this reasoning from layla

It wasn't a sheep, I had my own reasoning but I didn't realize that Layla was good with voting Gypyx

oh can you quote or elaborate on that

[Psyche]

sry i really do vacillate a lot between "it'll be fine this wagon is golden let's be daring" and "omg idk and also i am trash"

[Psyche]

pc can you try to think through your best guess for who is the scumteam

[Psyche]

oh! the unread post was just schadd posting votecount. that's cool. no problemo. i'll go back to my similarly busy, exciting weekend spent with irl friends whom i like to do things with. we're definitely doing a group trip today. to costco. for everything bagels

[Psyche]

ok. if snow is town and gypx is motivated to convince of this...then i have a bad townread somewhere.

[Psyche]

t3 sheeped this reasoning from layla

It wasn't a sheep, I had my own reasoning but I didn't realize that Layla was good with voting Gypyx

this post checks out!

[Psyche]

ok re-read iso and i'm more confident that T3 is town, separately from my townread of deus

[Psyche]

i guess ausuka *could* be scum if she's good at playing as scum. there's some ambiguity around the trajectory of her relative ranking of snow/robert over this game that looks worth investigating. and she's actually been a rather passive force in this game despite some appearances to the contrary. but eh — she certainly has an indefeasible excuse for it.

[Psyche]

probably wrong to focus on as ausuka's problem her relative rankings of robert/snow. after second look, more off is how snow in particular:
- was highlighted as "probably town" with me and deus in 171
- for reasons as weak as those listed in 173
- but sat in the middle of her reads list below robert for most of the time thereafter

snow was always the odd one out in that group imo

[Psyche]

VOTE: Sircakez

I do not like the pivot in answering my question from "using a lot of words to say not much" to "the motivation for attacking votes on them"

I just struggle to believe this push in general, i find Naerys and Klick's approach of just saying "yeah we do not want to play a game with this person" to be more natural and real

this post still good though, even if it turned out to be wrong

[Psyche]

Gypyx still looks like the scummiest player to me, it feels like she's trying too hard to play to some kind of town style rn
Klick and Ausuka feel town

Maybe i'm just town <3

have you played with cakez before?

@sircakez I'm trying to parse the above post as well why aren't they just town what screams trying hard to play town to you?

That was a while ago but it was a tonal thing, Gypyx posts felt forced to me

This is also just why I voted Gypyx

oh this is kinda meh actually

[Psyche]

Okay! Hope any info prs are aware.

In the meantime, I think the only way we achieve confidence about aureal-town is through poe, or if she goes out of her way to lead a wagon that flips scum of course.

[Psyche]

sure

[Psyche]

gypx building a towncase for snow would be an odd strategy from scum but is possible-ish
robert seems an easier bet but maybe this replacement will shake up my reads again

[Psyche]

think possibility of ausuka being scum has to be taken somewhat seriously by this point, particularly if erinys's posts continue to be strong

[Psyche]

it's a clear improvement. and i think i'd try to develop a take on how town even revealed slots look over the course of a re-read since it would inform how i read other slots interacting with / commenting on her. i remember similarly thinking about klick's posts w/ my actual knowledge at arms length.

[Psyche]

also ausuka's 491 reminds of my scum strat in that one game you and i played together

[Psyche]

- not with the level of confidence i'd like to have in a poe, anyway

- i think you'd normally avoid bussing unless it felt obligated

[Psyche]

think scum gypx is capable of seeing the value in pushing a snowtown case at this step in the game though yeah it has town equity

[Psyche]

seems i have to move my townread bar up a little

[Psyche]

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

[Psyche]

ill be free starting around 10am but will eventually need to sleep
but big goal is to revisit and make cohesive my D2 stances so far before shifting into the deal-making

[Psyche]

cmon you've gotta have more for a scumread than "it just seems weird" by noww

[Psyche]

sensing a level of understated dissonance between the "I do not buy this for a second" a while ago and the "It just seems weird" of this page

[Psyche]

is my 522 just omgus

[Psyche]

first ill reconsider old posts...

oh in retrospect its only a little better than a null read
i liked his soliloquy about voting cakez enough to not want to lim him that day
still wonder if there's anything to anyone's votes on him
i don't think i ever saw anything really articulated

ill recant this take. not good enough in this landscape

it seems pretty easy to write a believable interpretation of my posts on this page that convey the opposite take so i guess i should credit you for not doing that

i still think this + the snow towncase makes gypx town hard to say no to
she gave up options that she didn't have to, and was reasonably convincing in the execution
still some pairings that could be plausible if we assume there's a display of skill going on here

ok re-read iso and i'm more confident that T3 is town, separately from my townread of deus

i wish id written out why i independently tr'ed t3 here
also wish someone would have called me out for not elaborating

Gypyx still looks like the scummiest player to me, it feels like she's trying too hard to play to some kind of town style rn
Klick and Ausuka feel town

Maybe i'm just town <3

have you played with cakez before?

@sircakez I'm trying to parse the above post as well why aren't they just town what screams trying hard to play town to you?

That was a while ago but it was a tonal thing, Gypyx posts felt forced to me

This is also just why I voted Gypyx

oh this is kinda meh actually

this probably discounts the independent t3 tr i had in the earlier post but i guess we'll see

sensing a level of understated dissonance between the "I do not buy this for a second" a while ago and the "It just seems weird" of this page

Think this take is underrated!

votes wo explanation aren't going to improve on yesterday's standard

i dont think ill be able to give up on my cakez read. im sorry if it's wrong


VOTE: cakez

I do not buy this for a second

In general, I think this post looks dubious in the context of what T3 posted afterwards. Along with moderating his assessment of my posting to "It just seems weird", the posts in between are rather mirthless and passive for someone who has read a post he does "not buy this for a second". I think that for most people, picking up a scumread that intense in a game where you've otherwise struggled to develop many confident takes should be more energizing.

...

still committed to the idea that the leaning to townread aureal is tonal more than anything. her town equity is overrated.
maybe is too far to discount gypx's positioning as potentially merely a display of skill, but we can at

least

assume that experienced scum players can play the tone game well.
key question for a deeper look: is there more to aureal's iso than that?

i think im ignoring various "paranoia takes" people have made that have influenced my confidence in some reads. it's maybe right to do this though...

While she's left the door open to it, I'm kinda suspicious of gypx's decline in 518 to weigh PC's relational equity more heavily. Given that she has a number of relatively strong reads in her iso, I feel like she's in a better position to reason some convincing conclusions via poe than maybe even I am atm. Her posts today suggest that she has the will to do this kind of interpretive work, so there's a tension there.

Key questions:
- How robust is gypx's towncase for snow? How plausible is it that she'd decline pushes on me/snow as scum? Does she still have a plausible path to victory if we imagine she's committed to her most consistent reads?
- Is there more to aureal's iso than a pro-town tone?
- How has HPE's posts

really

affected likelihood that the robert slot is scum?
- What reasons are people giving for finding PC scummy? How much do his pushes

really

matter for discounting hypothetical scumreads?
- Where should my read on T3/Deus be after a renewed interpretation of key posts in their isos?

[Psyche]

aureal ausuka aureal ausuka aureal ausuka there now ill never make that mistake again

[Psyche]

T3's opposition to the cakez wagon seems robust. Dived into meta, produced reasoning about cakez's claim that seems like it should have been even more compelling in retrospect. If it were just white-knighting, I think the townread would have either been half-hearted or been motivated more by gut / town / leaky reasons. The swap from Gypx to Robert for counterwagon purposes also seems organic. Is unfortunate for me, but think my T3 townread is in "I'm willing to bet the game on this" territory.

[Psyche]

One notable thing though is that is that there was real momentum to lim deus on D1, could be useful for interpretation now that I have a confident townread of the target.
Most relevant focus is probably PC's bandwagoning to bring the slot back to E-2 after I had moved off of it.
I initially favorably interpreted the subsequent unvote and explanation, but PC had some cues to notice it might look bad for him to commit to the wagon, particularly ausuka's questioning of the vote.
The explanation in 202 seems reasonable in context though.

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

Elaborate

UNVOTE:

I'm liking laylas entrance!!

Was your vote and unvote on Deus purely policy?

yes and no. I was starting to like what psyche was saying about the slot. plus I figured why not let people play how they want to play like who am I to say I don't wanna play with him I'm nobody.

Maybe worth noting that both gypx and ausuka declined to add momentum to the wagon, and in fact ausuka's critique of cakez's post shifted momentum elsewhere.
Think ausuka's interactions around deus/clout/cakez make her look especially good here. Helps address my concern that her readability depends on interpreting tone for sure.

[Psyche]

vote count 1.3 !

Robert2424 (4):

Snow2697, T3, Layla, SirCakez

SirCakez (2):

Ausuka, Psyche

Psyche (1):

Gypyx

Political Clout (1):

Robert2424

not voting (1):

Political Clout

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to pickle someone's peppers. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-26 04:08:11).

moderateur notes

• e

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[.......an.......]
[....t...t.......]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
[................]
[................]
[................]
[.........bush...]
[flowerbush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

rather good odds of 4 town on robert here

[Psyche]

also think it unlikely that layla would have been killed N1 if her reads were bad
and all of layla's posts put robert and gypx at the bottom of her reads lists, with clout/snow safely perched above three other candidates, and only below obvtown

further think there's a lot of informational value in limming robert's slot if we can neither clear it nor agree on someone else
this post should include a take on HPE's current iso but it doesn't, vry disappointing

[Psyche]

im so sry. it's the alternative to "i promise a really good post in two days" that i'm trying out

[Psyche]

i sort of want to give HPE the game
but i've felt that way about scum before

maybe the most important part of the iso to look at is the basis for the PC read
oh i think i see an error

[Psyche]

Props to my predecessor for this one. No response from PC until... oh. He doesn't respond at all. Amazing.

PC does explain the vote/unvote around deus
i quote it and some context in 534 above

[Psyche]

But trust is a strong word!

I do have a thing or two I want to say, but I am intentionally hiding them for now because I’m waiting on things I want to see to happen first.

i wonder what this was
i guess pr hunters could get "vibes" from this post

[Psyche]

Okay, so I want to go over my work around sorting PC, to either a) see if I still think it's solid or b) abandon my TR.

It's very relational and PoE-based, so it's important to identify the slots that I've not ruled out as scum.
Me, T3, Ausuka are cleared. I'm close to also clearing HPE, but since I'm not at the "I'll bet the game that this read is correct" stage, it stays in the pool.

Gypyx
Snow2697
Political Clout
Robert/HighPrincessErinys

Strategy here is to reason about who PC could be scum with if he were scum. If we can't find a conceivable pairing, then we reject that he's scum.

I I originally thought that there's a lot of good reason to reject the PC/HPE pairing.
However, 489 where he says "I was suspicious of robert" is gummy enough to cast doubt on that opinion.
Still!

I liked layla's entrance but other than that it feels like they've fallen off. it might just be the gamestate though. mafia might just be comfortable here. I think we should reassess on cakez.

and go
VOTE: robert

no solving no progression

@robert can I have a readlist?

This declines an opportunity to join the sircakez wagon to vote robert.
I originally factored this a lot into my anti-relational read but there are a few factors I didn't weigh.
First, the timing of this vote was with sircakez at E-2 and me (and perhaps others?) clearly signposting that I was willing to put my vote back there as deadline gets any closer. Scum might reason that a sircakez wagon already had enough momentum that they could play for town equity instead and avoid participating in the mislim.
This vote isn't pushy enough to be interpreted as a serious attempt to derail the cakez wagon. It's short and unsubstantial, and queries robert for more takes, suggesting room for more read development.

Still, there's this sequence of earlier posts...

Deus has more personality then the lack of a profile picture. Either that or he has a random role restriction. there's is no in-between.

This reads like trying to fit into the thread to me.

I think I'm one of the few that haven't claimed. Seems many are being....reserved in one form or another.

lolque?

Vote Snow

Mainly because you don't have a profile picture.

Sounds fair. But I look at yours and see ... a predator (scum) ready to hunt a helpless townie. So,

VOTE: Robert

OMGOSH

My Gypyx vote is serious now

suffer for a thousand lifetimes

That feels personal.

This vibes as an attempt to fit into the thread.

Is weird that these earlier posts didn't come with a vote or anything. Instead PC's votes across these posts are either on sircakez or unvote. If these posts were just distancing, would including a vote look scummier or more organic?

It's also odd that none of these takes on robert's posts are mentioned in 336, which focus on an absence of progression and solving

I'm still inclined to

not

read this as scum v scum distancing. But I am seeing holes in this trajectory that I didn't notice before which could amount to an independent scumread.

[Psyche]

PC's posts around snow are similar in the way that they express suspicion without real capitalizing. PC is really indecisive here, persuadable, inclined to use his vote to bandwagon simple ideas and/or for pressure.

Honestly, I've seen him this way in other games where he turned out to be town, so I'm not really going to weigh that as scummy.

The key thing though is that I think ctrl+fing "snow" in PC's iso provides plenty of really good reasons to doubt a PC/snow pairing too.

This only leaves PC/Gypx. But Gypx has teed PC up for a lim, towncasing snow in a way that all but rules out the possibility of a snow lim today and effectively declining the permission structure I handed her to move away from a PC scumread in this post:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

need to think over that but i guess even if it was true it would not make me fully give up on scum PC

Either a hard bus is going on here -- maybe with gypx is taking advantage of my readiness to lean on relational reasoning for my reads -- or we have to reject the PC/Gypx pairing, too.

[Psyche]

gypx's sorting seems obliged to be pc/robert given her other commitments, and seems implied in other posts.

i find 518 kind of off in this context.

she's already discounted my anti-relational read for PC/robert and doesn't

really

have good reasons to abandon her ausuka townlock. she was comfortable calling a solve in early D1, so I expected even a somewhat tentative commitment to the pc/robert solve in her reply.

there is an available town explanation: maybe i really had shaken her confidence in her ausuka read, and maybe TPE's entrance had shaken her robert read

but i guess even then i'd expect more willingness to tackle this dissonance. the thinking behind her pc read is currently less developed than her rationale for snowtown after all

[Psyche]

btw what makes you reject a robert / PC pairing? that's the conclusion i'm getting at but it's more based on PoE than anything really

oh it's not implied

uhhh
i'll give 518 a pass maybe

[Psyche]

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

[Psyche]

aw you've crumbled my confidence with just a single oneliner

[Psyche]

VOTE: snow

[Psyche]

schadd i demand a deadline extension in these trying times

[Psyche]

wow seriously how does he still scumread me

[Psyche]

can i get more opinions on T3?
am i right to townlock him despite these recent posts? is the trajectory of his psyche read believable?

[Psyche]

sure
the scum are in these 3

Gypyx
Snow2697
HighPrincessErinys

[Psyche]

honestly, we have one more free mislim so i'm pretty sure the game is solved. or at least it would be if i could control every lim.

[Psyche]

is still possible!
but a gypx/robert pairing is possible too, as well as snow/robert (wow!)

ive ruled out everyone else

[Psyche]

im a coward :]

[Psyche]

VOTE: gypx

[Psyche]

i put in a lot of work to think through whether it can be pc
i also have a good measure of recent meta experience with pc
it's not pc

[Psyche]

VOTE: snow

[Psyche]

snow really does look like a reasonable guess but im still hoping there's something i've missed so far that could add more confidence to a decision

[Psyche]

drew proposed that i should downweight the snow/gypx team because gypx towncased him
my intuition is still that this is unclear; it looks like in context that gypx was pressured somewhat to elaborate on a snow read that otherwise might have just never been pressed
whether snow is her bud or not, that would have given plenty of reason to try to be convincing in that post

[Psyche]

ideal route to building further consensus is probably further litigation of PC
would also do a lot to sort HPE/Gypx/Snow, since a PC townread probably commits the scum among them to scumreading one another

[Psyche]

urgh. at least one person in this convo sure is good at mafia or whatever

[Psyche]

oh how embarrassed ill be if it turns out im wrong about pc

[Psyche]

just one of those gamess

[Psyche]

i will now go through the trouble of summarizing my towncase for PC in a single, decently formatted post
if my confidence in this towncase can be broken in a way that makes snowscum way less likely, i'll push off
otherwise i'll spend the rest of the day trying to form a town bloc with drew and (???) T3

[Psyche]

can you list out all your "i would be shocked if" takes

[Psyche]

implies a pool of...

Snow2697
Political Clout
T3

as an act of procrastination, lemme convince you why T3 is somehow very probably not scum

also the word is linchpin. not sure why a word spelled like that means what it means though.

[Psyche]

wow lynchpin is actually a valid spelling
what a word

[Psyche]

T3's opposition to the cakez wagon seems robust. Dived into meta, produced reasoning about cakez's claim that seems like it should have been even more compelling in retrospect. If it were just white-knighting, I think the townread would have either been half-hearted or been motivated more by gut / town / leaky reasons. The swap from Gypx to Robert for counterwagon purposes also seems organic. Is unfortunate for me, but think my T3 townread is in "I'm willing to bet the game on this" territory.

So this, along with some takes on the player T3 replaced, is why I townread T3. Here's a link to the first of the relevant posts: viewtopic.php?p=14132863&f=23&t=92430&u ... #p14132863

- 257 and 259 are pretty null. But is notable that t3 went out of his way to explain his position even though my reply didn't actually press him to elaborate. This initiative (slightly!) suggests a real interest in elaborating on his cakez read rather than just to address suspicion of his slot.

- 261 goes further to address an initial critique of his stance in 259. He backs up his meta read on sircakez with specific posts from other games. Again, I think if he were scum, he would have left these details up in the air. He would maybe stick to opposing the sircakez wagon, but he would avoid ruling out the wagon entirely, and probably wouldn't actually try very hard to convince people of his position on sircakez. He'd just have the correct take on sircakez and enjoy his "i told ya so" card later in the game.

- Similarly, in 387-391 discussing sircakez's claim, he doesn't stop at "I buy this" but proceeds to multipost an actually pretty solid rationale for believing the claim based on reasoning about how scum at L-1 would generate a claim. Scum at L-1 have a lot of reasons to fakeclaim a pretty strong role -- to potentially bait real PRs into claiming (or softing), and maybe more importantly to make the idea of going through with a hammer scary. I think T3 as scum would have had very good reasons to believe that his posts in this sequence could be convincing and lead to a town PR surviving D1 who would otherwise be mislimmed.

- His posting after the above are consistent with a confident townread on cakez. He strategically shifts his vote around to weaker reads to maximize the odds that someone besides cakez gets limmed. And after sircakez is limmed, he votes for me, the slot that failed to appreciate his solid reasons for townreading cakez. All this is consistent w/ the psychology of someone for whom a coherent cakez townread was their primary anchor for interpreting the game, and then someone chastened by this read's failure to correspondingly impact the game.

The (1) relative costs for scum of towncasing sircakez even after his PR claim, (2) T3's eagerness to do so thoroughly and robustly, and (3) the consistency of T3's posting outside the direct orbit of the sircakez push together strongly imply that T3 is town.

[Psyche]

i got realllly distracted
i guess ive already made the posts re: PC recently

[Psyche]

you haven't really given me a lot to work with but sure

[Psyche]

oh noo

[Psyche]

man i sure wish there were something itt to deal w my anxiety

[Psyche]

give me your alternative solve

[Psyche]

also i don't reaally think it's HPE
gun to head id guess it's snow/gypx
but of course im quite unsure

also a solve involve PC that i haven't fully ruled out is PC/HPE

[Psyche]

if we lim PC is the correct solve clear no matter the result? if the answer is yes i'll move

[Psyche]

sure wish T3 were paying attention to this game. the lock on me for the whole day is so unreasonable

[Psyche]

in my mind PC lim helps the least because it only tests the PC/HPE scenario:
i don't think PC can scum with gypx or snow

by contrast, snow could be aligned with either HPE or gypx.
if snow is town, id be forced to think the solve is gypx/hpe

which would be good if the other solves are right

[Psyche]

part of me would rather do gypx today but...id rather have the more active slots alive until forced by poe

[Psyche]

scum has to be among the people who tonally sound town
unless the solve is pc/snow
then if so we are still on the good path

[Psyche]

if gpyx/snow solve looks implausible to you, we gotta look again at hpe OR give up on snow

[Psyche]

but i dont really see a convincing solve that includes HPE and imo gypx's towncase on snow was a forced move that could turn out to have good equity for her in a gypx/snow pairing anyway

[Psyche]

it looks like your implied solve is Snow/PC if you agree with me about T3. So, alright.

[Psyche]

whole game has felt like trying to pull water from a stone
that said, i'm going to stay committed to my solve

VOTE: gypx

[Psyche]

we can do a massclaim though!

[Psyche]

not guts!
tell me a plausible duo that doesn't include gypx and ill unvote

[Psyche]

frankly very interested in your answer

[Psyche]

even just a first guess?

[Psyche]

Without reading the thread, here are all the theoretically possible combos. There are ten of them.

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout')
('Gypyx', 'Psyche')
('Gypyx', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Gypyx', 'Doctor Drew')
('Political Clout', 'Psyche')
('Political Clout', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Political Clout', 'Doctor Drew')
('Psyche', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Psyche', 'Doctor Drew')
('HighPrincessErinys', 'Doctor Drew')

[Psyche]

Remove those with me, brings down to 6:

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout')
('Gypyx', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Gypyx', 'Doctor Drew')
('Political Clout', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Political Clout', 'Doctor Drew')
('HighPrincessErinys', 'Doctor Drew')

[Psyche]

Interestingly, these are the options that also exclude HPE. These are the only options compatible with the assumptions in 661 that 1) HPE is town and 2) I am trying to solve:

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout')
('Gypyx', 'Doctor Drew')
('Political Clout', 'Doctor Drew')

If we instead take out Ausuka/Drew -- a more confident guess imo -- options are:

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout'),
('Gypyx', 'HighPrincessErinys'),
('Political Clout', 'HighPrincessErinys')

[Psyche]

besides the strength of the overall iso, ausuka's interactions around deus/clout/cakez when the wagon on deus was stirring still strongly convince me that the slot is town. i'm good with these 3 options.
hpe should be similarly confident about drew/ausuka at this point, and thus have a confident solve for gypyx/clout. but apparently doesn't

[Psyche]

HPE has technically not expressed a confident read on ausuka/drew yet. so we'll call it null that it doesn't have a commited solve yet i guess

[Psyche]

think pc/gypx's combined isos mostly discount that duo
this should incline me to vote HPE, since all other solves include it, but a solve is still alive that doesn't include Gypx -- HPE/PC

ill unvote for one moment

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

i can't quite rule out robert/hpe/pc

[Psyche]

interesting!

[Psyche]

I'm pulling together a complete post outlining the position. I know a lot of HPE's posts look town, but the case seems pretty hard to reject at this point. But I am frequently confidently wrong. Maybe you'll be able to poke holes in it for me?

[Psyche]

Think it should be very obvious at this point in the game that I can't solve by myself. So I hope someone can help.
Honestly would've been great if T3 could have been more involved yesterday; his D1 takes on cakez were spot-on.

But I feel forced into thinking it's HPE and one of -- but certainly not both of -- PC/Gypx.
I understand that HPE's longer posts don't look scummy.
But robert's iso was bad and this recent post seems misaligned with where HPE's head should be atm.

What are the weakest components of this incomplete solve?

ausuka townread

So i'll elaborate on the idea that her posting around deus/cakez/pc were very solid and convincing:
Posts as deus attracted attention were focused on sorting;
The cakez vote was well-motivated;
She declined the opportunity to add momentum to a deus mislim after a pretty robust permission structure had been set up (she could have, for example, endorsed cakez's case and joined with other igh-equity town like klick);
Immediate scrutiny of PC's pile-on vote on deus, which imo was the closest to an alignment-indicative vote in the sequence

There's other stuff in her iso that look townie too, but I'm fine just producing the sufficient reasons for townreading her slot.
Am at the point I feel fine losing the game if this read is wrong.
ausuka would have earned the win.

rejection of pc/gypx scum combo

Gypyx seriously pushed PC yesterday.
518 is the strongest statement because even after a permission structure was provided to shift to a PC townread, Gypyx remained committed to the read.
But even before that she pushed back on components of my PC read that she could have left alone if her only goal were distancing from PC.
Also, she had plenty of room to stick to PC the whole day if her goal were bussing. Instead, she opportunistically shifting to the other component of her implied solve to get the best possible outcome for the day.
If her agenda for D2 were just to look good and convey distance from PC, I don't think we'd have seen that shift.
These details convince me that Gypyx's push on PC yesterday was pretty real.
Can't quite clear her unless I can get similarly confident that she's not buds with HPE, but yeah!

PC's 551 also seems telling to me! I'll quote my post before that to emphasize the context. There were no other votes on Gypx at this point.

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

VOTE: gypyx


I'll be here tomorrow. after 2. I think gypyx is just dancing around the players.

I basically set up conditions in 550 for a wagon on snow or gypyx as a counter to the existing wagon on PC.
PC could have joined me on Snow just as easily as he did on Gypx with no clear damage to his credibility.
He chose Gypyx and essentially nudged me to commit to that part of my solve.
If 551 had succeeded -- and it sure looks like it intended to -- snow and drew would have been in a place to choose between him and gypyx.
From a survivalism perspective, I feel like his odds would've looked better if it were instead a choice between him and snow, since snow was basically afk.
So the vote has somewhat low equity for PC-scum while snow is town, and even lower equity for PC-scum while gypyx is also scum along with snow being town.

That said, I'm struggling to rememeber what I thought was relationally sortable between the two before D2.
And 551 is just one post: it's too risky to infer a slot's EV assumptions from just one post.
This is because people make posts that violate their base EV all the time, either because they're not thinking things through, or because they see potential for improved equity in the sort of gambit inherent in anti-EV behavior.
That's why I think gypx's posts around PC are more convincing that they aren't a pair.

[bold]something else[/bold]
would be grateful forever if someone could point out something else. please for the love of god ive been wrong two days in a row (though i dont feel so bad about the D2 one).

[Psyche]

feel the need to restate one more time why thinking

1) ausuka/drew is town, and
2) pc and gypx aren't the scumteam
3) i am not scum

implies that the solve is HPE and [PC or Gypyx]

Here are the combos consistent with [3]. I hope everyone is here; I'm definitely here:

Spoiler: Do you think I'm scum? If not these, are the possible solves:

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout')
('Gypyx', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Gypyx', 'Doctor Drew')
('Political Clout', 'HighPrincessErinys')
('Political Clout', 'Doctor Drew')
('HighPrincessErinys', 'Doctor Drew')

Here are the combos consistent with [3] and [1]. This is where Drew is:

Spoiler: Do you think ausuka/drew and Psyche are both town? If so, these are the possible solves:

('Gypyx', 'Political Clout'),
('Gypyx', 'HighPrincessErinys'),
('Political Clout', 'HighPrincessErinys')

And the final condition that rules out ('Gypyx', 'Political Clout'). Both remaining combos include HPE.

Spoiler: It's just the same list but with one combo removed

('Gypyx', '

HighPrincessErinys

'),
('Political Clout', '

HighPrincessErinys

')

Tell me which of 1, 2, 3 should still be in question, and why.

[Psyche]

can you claim and also tell us who of Gypyx/PC should claim next?

[Psyche]

Like, I have been thinking why you aren't considering yourself as scum for this exercise(I actually like when someone takes an objective view point in similar scenarios).

But, I don't think I could see you as scum......or you have played very well as scum and gg well played.

HPE was mainly vibes and how it played after I repped in didn't really seem like scumHPE(or at least seemed like the townHPE I remember). Yes it is a vibe thing, but I feel like it doesn't go about things as scum like that.

I am also just worried you talked yourself out of Gyp and might be overthinking things a bit.

going in these circles makes me see how any slot could tonally read as town or scum.
is really frustrating. i could probably spin up a detailed and plausible case for why any slot is scum or is town atm!
this happens a lot to me, across my games lately i've been trying to find a reliable distinction between tonal and substantial reads to rely on past D1

the best i can come up with so far is heuristic reasoning about the EV of each post a player makes
but of course EV reasoning is necessarily limited. people can bus and make similar gambits, and people can also make mistakes.
we thus have to tonally interpret whether an ev-sensitive decision (like push a slot) were making an ev-motivated play, an ev-gambit, or a ev-mistake

this game im playing with the idea that probing the consistency of a position over many posts is the way to rule out at least the third scenario -- an ev-mistake
the reasoning is that people in social deduction games will notice their mistakes if they spend enough time thinking about their decision-making
but i guess the potential gap in the idea is its hazy picture of what happens next.

if scum notices they've made an EV-mistake, do they try to safely correct? or do they roll with it?
this seems to depend on whether they can expect sufficient town equity by keeping to an EV-negative decision, whether they have a permission structure to shift away from their EV-mistake without losing town equity, and the attractiveness of the positions they have a permission structure to shift to
im imagining a vague formula where each option for staying committed to the current position and also of shifting to each possible alternative position has a value assigned to it based on a balance of "hard"-EV factors (e.g., "town limming scum today means there will be an N4 and D4 i might not survive") and "soft"-EV factors (e.g., "i'll look scummy if i move my vote now without a good reason")
i imagine people sample across these options with a value-weighted probability distribution and maybe some additional biases such as against change or angering allies
and i imagine that the values in this distribution change over time based on other stuff going on in the game, like a townie making a suspicious post or expressing commitment to a position. i'm calling stuff like this "permission structures"

blah blah blah i had a bit about the difference between consistency and commitment but im not even going to finish this post who cares it's all junk all junk

[Psyche]

how is it that i can write so much in threads like these but struggle most days to draft even a sentence toward my thesis

[Psyche]

so no locktown reads

[Psyche]

ok, so i find these last several posts by gypyx scummy overall

[Psyche]

drew i made a self indulgent wallpost and im sorry.
but real point i want to convey here is that don’t know where to take this convo if it’s just “well i have these vibes”
if that’s it and my argument in 675-676 is neither something that moves you nor something you feel like engaging with then there’s nothing else to say and we should just pick someone to compromise over

we will however have to try really hard to find and recruit the last town to agree with us
while all 3 of pc/gypyx/hpe will probably never vote together, if the last town doesn’t follow us then scum can force a 50/50 shot on a mislim by just voting together for someone else

this means our compromise needs to include, and convince a third town we currently disagree on!
do you see how tough our situation is right now if we decide the talking is over?

[Psyche]

also im not really talked out of gyp at all i just think for the three reasons in 675 hpe is 100% sorted while gypyx is like 75%

in the end though!
because of plurality lim rules
we actually need to agree on a complete solve today, not just one lim
it’s not enough to agree that gypyx is scum
we ideally keep talking until we achieve an accord on hpe and pc

[Psyche]

so you're saying it's easier for you to imagine me as scum than gypyx as scum