Open 338 Jungle Republic StefanBversion - FIN

[Rhinox]

vote: Cobblerfone

for sucking up to other players

[Rhinox]

@Sir Bastion: It is public knowledge that in the game you reference I was lynched not long after replacing in on page 80. Can't say any more than that due to the game currently being ongoing.

@cobblerfone: you've now sucked up to both kondi and Bastion. I'm happy with where my vote is. It is a serious vote. Please explain your town read on Bastion. What has he done that makes you think he's distinctly town?

[Rhinox]

Question for all; would you rather lynch a wolf or a mafia today?

I think there are some merits either way. I'll just say either is fine, a scum lynch is a scum lynch at this point.

It's his attitude.

How vague... Can you elaborate on that?

[Rhinox]

So... you're saying only town would express eagerness in moving the thread along?

Also, you're giving him town points for his eagerness to move the thread along, in the same post where you basically say his questions are doing nothing to move the thread along?

[Rhinox]

So... you're saying only town would express eagerness in moving the thread along?

Also, you're giving him town points for his eagerness to move the thread along, in the same post where you basically say his questions are doing nothing to move the thread along?

Eagerness =/= actually did.

That was my point. Do you think eagerness alone is enough for a town read?

You also didn't answer the first question.

[Rhinox]

Speaking of unusual, about rhinox, its a tad wifomy. People make gut town/scum calls all the time, cobbler made one on me and rhinox seems to be pushing really hard for a wagon to form over it. Yes what Cobblerstone did was the most out of ordinary thing and one may think to put pressure on him to see how he reacts, but the crime vs the chase seems a bit dogged. Other people have said things in this thread but Rhinox has touched none of it and has tunnelled on cobblerstone. Its too early for tunnelling IMO.

So my question to you is obvious! Will you tell us your opinion on some other players that have posted?

If I wanted your answer to my questions I would have asked you and not cobbler.

What would you like my opinion on? Players are players getting into the game and some haven't even posted yet. If I haven't given an opinion on specific players or events its because I either don't have an opinion yet, or other opinions are more important for me to pursue.

[Rhinox]

If I wanted your answer to my questions I would have asked you and not cobbler.

I wasn't answering your question, I was making my observations and reads as the game currently stands.

Well I don't agree with your observations. cobbler didn't make a gut read, he made a read based on your attitude of wanting to progress the thread (his words). Then he said you might be scum for what was essentially the same reason he called you town - the backpedaling occurred after I started pressuring him. He's dodged my questions and been short with me in his responses which comes across as not wanting to bring too much attention on the issues I'm raising, or at least that he's uncomfortable being pressured and wants me to just go away.

I'm also not tunneling. I don't even think its possible to be tunneled already in the short time the thread's been open.

[Rhinox]

hmm... well I'm still not entirely saitisfied with cobbler but there is another thing I've noticed.

IIOA, IIOA, Random Vote?, IIOA.

Noticing this pattern here with Yos. Its still early and I can give a pass on the first 3 because collectively they're basically your first post and you were answering distinct questions, but the last 1 is starting to raise some red flags for me. Too much talk about theory*.

*And kinda irrelevant theory at that - especially early on, there's not going to be a way to discern which faction the scummy people we lynch will be, short of a claim. Even if its the ideal scenario, there's no way to plan to do that, we can just lynch scummy people and hope for the best, really. We're not going to get bogged down in trying to figure out which faction the ppl we want to lynch are on D1 and D2 and get into a situation where we're not lynching someone who's scum because they're the wrong faction, for example. Maybe if we get to the D3 situation you suggested where we've lynched werewolf, town, and on D3 there's a seer result on the other werewolf then we have to start thinking about factions, but thats a lot of hypothetical 'ifs' that have to happen first.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox: Isnt questions on theory commonly used in RQS though?

Yes, but thats not whats happening here.

We're also past RVS/RQS time at this point anyways.

[Rhinox]

Hey everyone just a heads up I'm going to have

limited access this weekend

while I'm away from home for a wedding. I'll have smartphone access only, don't expect any long winded responses or quoting, but I'll probably be able to read everything.

[Rhinox]

hmm... well I'm still not entirely saitisfied with cobbler but there is another thing I've noticed.

IIOA, IIOA, Random Vote?, IIOA.

Noticing this pattern here with Yos. Its still early and I can give a pass on the first 3 because collectively they're basically your first post and you were answering distinct questions, but the last 1 is starting to raise some red flags for me. Too much talk about theory*.

Posting information, or setup discussion, or whatever, is only a scumtell if you do it instead of actual scumhunting. I don't think anyone this game had done any actual scumhunting as of page 2, so you're basically just calling me out for posting more stuff then other people. Discussing the setup is actually a perfeclty good way to get conversation going on early pages of a game. "information instead of analysis" is a silly thing to say, at a point of the game where there's nothing to analyze.

Thats funny because I was scumhunting from my very first post on page 1, but I digress and also point out the irrelevance of using scumhunting as a metric in an open multiscum game where one faction doesn't even have a kill and must only eliminate the other faction via lynching (scumhunting).

It just seems like the motivation behind your posts is to make you *appear* to be helpful and non-threatening.

Vote:princesskdw, who hasn't posted yet. (/slightly better then random vote since I have a weak town read on a few people and obviously have no read on her.)

Cobbler asked the wrong question. The right question was: what were you hoping to accomplish by voting an inactive?

[Rhinox]

Mostly back. Catching back up now.

[Rhinox]

Seemingly random question; Rhinox, how many times have you played with Yos before?

This is the first time I've had the honor. I think.

[Rhinox]

yos2 said some things I'm not entirely sold on yet but I don't feel strongly inclined to argue the point at this time.

I'm not feeling the TOF wagon at the moment.

[Rhinox]

so yos... you made a convincing argument that scum would sit back doing nothing. I haven't really seen that in TOF's play, other than her drawing your attention for not voting.

I have a problem with you going after TOF right now, given something else you have done earlier. Earlier, you voted primate. You said he responded better under pressure. Primate posted once, then you said he was more likely town and unvoted. Since then, primate has gone back to lurking. Also, primate has not voted anyone. That post you said was more likely to come from town, didn't contain a vote. So calling Primate's post town seems to directly contradict your statements about how you think scum would be playing.

There are also other players who are currently not voting anyone and doing nothing.

So to me it seems like you are picking and choosing when your scum tells apply and when they don't.

I also have a problem with the way you're attacking TOF.

Examples:

First, he says "I could argue that voting just to vote is scummy", right after I explained why pro-town people should vote, especially in this game. Notice that he doesn't actually argue that it's scummy, he just vaguely claims that he could.

"I could argue that..." is just a figure of speach. Its clear she IS stating that voting just to vote is scummy.

Then he finally votes. But he doesn't vote for any of the people he's expressed suspicion on; instead, he votes for me. Why? He never really says. I can only assume that he doesn't like that I'm voting for him.

She did express suspicion of you earlier. Its in her iso 3. So its not like she pulled your name out of thin air or omgus'd entirely.

-Your rhetoric-y post: you're already to the "covincing the rest of us" stage. Are you already that convinced TOF is scum? For example, why didn't you ask TOF for the reasons why she voted you, or to clear up the paragraph that didn't make a lot of sense. Those seem like things a townie would want to understand and ask as part of scumhunting.

[Rhinox]

@yos:
you're correct TOF hasn't been great thus far, but she's new and seemed initially to be trying. She didn't respond to the pressure well.

primate meta - ok I guess. Though then why did you call his previous post town?

3 parts to scumhunting - well I've never heard it explained like that before. I tend to see that kind of thing as being more concerned with making a convincing argument even if its wrong.

[Rhinox]

For the first time ever, I think that Yos is actually making sense. Does that mean that he's town? No.

What did he say that didn't make sense? Why didn't you think it made sense? Is it because you know he's scum, and assume whatever he's saying doesn't make sense, because he's your scumbuddy or is it because you know he isn't your scumbuddy and you want to cast doubt on his logic?

So...you're accusing him of being my scumbuddy because he said I'm making sense? Also, you want to explain himself and why he said that, so you're...asking him if he's scum? Do you expect him to say yes?

Ditto. I'll also note that it false dichotomy / loaded question hybrid.

And I don't, it'd be delightful if he is and he did. Well, not for his team or the game really, but... oh you know what I mean.

Actually no, I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

[Rhinox]

crypto you are sounding like you're overreacting to fitz calling your iso bad. Where has fitz said he thinks you are a higher suspect than Cobbler or TOF, or that you are scum at all?

[Rhinox]

TOF: why does crypt's post make you feel insulted?

[Rhinox]

Also I'm happy with the cobbler votes and would be happy seeing more.

[Rhinox]

not caring for Crypto's attack on Y2 for no apparent reason

idk, that seemed like about the same tone of suspicion as "the intro post didn't look good" followed by *oh snap* "neither does your iso".

What I mean to say is that the comment you're referring to by fitz seemed more of a jab at you rather than real suspicion.

[Rhinox]

I'm not speaking for anyone, I'm trying to get to the bottom of your overreaction to fitz comment and why it warranted a vote from you. What was it about fitz's intro post that didn't look good?

[Rhinox]

@Crypto....what Rhinox said.

Thanks a lot, Rhinox, for speaking for other players.

you can't expect people to sit back and let you "work your magic" or whatever when you're doing questionable things. I didn't like you're fitz vote, I wanted to know your motives, so I questioned you. If in the process I was required to explain how I interpretted fitz's posts differently from you to explain my concerns and you want to call that "speaking for other people" well I don't really care what you call it.

So I've apparently foiled all your scumhunting plans yet you've kept your vote on fitz. So was this really a reaction test or do you actually think he's scum?

[Rhinox]

mini V/LA for the weekend, you won't even know I'm gone

[Rhinox]

Everbody claim a hypothetical result, everyone except the seer making something up, so that if the seer dies, we can look back and get the actual result.

[Rhinox]

wiki link for what? hypocop? I don't think there is a page. Its not that hard a concept.

I'm not sure its the best plan though. It can help the werewolves narrow down who the seer is. For example, if someone gives a hypoinnocent result on a werewolf, the werewolves know that player is not the seer.

[Rhinox]

@Sir Bastion: Seer's only find wolves

and no not a reads list. Everybody would make this post and fill in the blank:

Last night I investigated _____________ and he was not a wolf.

Except only the seer's result would be truth, everyone else would be making something up to protect the seer, so the seer can claim results but stay hidden, and when the seer gets nked we go back and look at his post and know his results.

Pre-edit: and iama just said the same thing I just did.

[Rhinox]

(So it's highly unlikely that Sir Bastion is a wolf, since this almost certainly would have come up when they were discussing who to kill last night)

Actually pretty much bastion just claimed VT. I'd argue he's not likely to be mafia either since he'd have probably been corrected by his partners, and he's also not likely to be seer for obvious reasons, so...

[Rhinox]

(I had realised that this also made him obv not-seer, but I didn't want to point that out, just in case we have particularly dense wolves.)

They'd have to be pretty fucking dense lol. I give my competition a little more credit than that.

[Rhinox]

*facepalm*

(was actually for a minute going to explain here how town competes against scum but fuck it)

Look at your iso, then vote yourself. Thats seriously the best you can come up with?

vote: funnybike

[Rhinox]

The hell its a scum slip. Don't be fucktards.

[Rhinox]

This is bike's iso and why I voted him:

D1
0: /confirm
1: unexplained vote on popular target
2: fluff
3: only attempt at a contentfilled post, and its basically nonsense. Also, hypocritical:

Crypto

funkybike, what are your opinions on who the scum is? You seem to just be trying to force things without anything behind it.

4: unexplained unvote
5: fluff
D2
6: BS mudslinging

There is nothing town about it.

[Rhinox]

was prodded. Will get caught back up

[Rhinox]

ok so funky's early claim is bad, but null. I've been VT and claimed early before - but the difference is I was putting in effort and saw it was getting no where, where funky has pretty much done nothing, so... I agree with yos, his claim alone doesn't cut it.

Primate: first in #282 you hated the Funky wagon, then in #300 you seemed to weakly support it with meta. Did you change your mind?

Hiraki: I could maybe see a TOF lynch but what could you have possibly seen to call funky "definitely town"? Whether you're town or scum it just doesn't make sense for you to be that sure given funky's iso.

[Rhinox]

(btw, don't attack me for lurking when three people have contributed less than me. These were iamausername's only good posts so far)

So besides IAUN, who are the other 2 you think have contributed less? (I also don't agree that IAUN has contributed less than you)

Im starting to get susoicious of HirakI. His irrational love for funky is not normal

perhaps it's not irrational

and I actually am busy

and/or don't want to type alot

(pssst it's b)

Wait so you have time to pop in when someone says they're suspicious of you, but you don't have time to explain why funky is town or TOF is scum?

This game is fucking dying.

Activity Overview
Don't act like you're not part of the problem. This is not the first time you've complained about activity IIRC. There aren't many with fewer posts than you, and when I look through your iso you tend to clump a couple posts together with 3 days in between. Do something about the activity if you think its a problem.

Always happens in this kind of game; there's so many scum, so few town, and the scum all tend to lurk.

I really think we need to lynch some kind of lurker-scum today, just to stop the game from stalling out completly. If people have a better idea then FunkyBike, I'm listening.

But all the scum can't be lurkers and all the lurkers can't be scum, can they?

I mean, on this page alone, there's 2 prod dodges and a guy claiming to be busy. I don't think anyone really is driving conversation. How do you separate lurker scum from seemingly apathetic town?

I'm not at all fond of Rhinox, but I can't really pin down why, yet.

awww I thought we were friends </3

I want to reread TheOtherFiction, but I'm surprised people seem to have swung away from her to this degree.. that looks odd.

I thought she looked better on D1 than she did today. She didn't always say the best things, but it did seem she was working things out from a townie mindset. Today her play has just been weird. Not as much activity, first says my earlier post did look like a scum slip, then said it didn't, then threw an unexplained vote on me.

TOF: why the change in playstyle from yesterday to today?

[Rhinox]

@Hiraki:

Elmo's a temporary replacement for iamausername. I've played with elmo before, as far as I know he's his own account and not an alt or hydra.

With this obviously pressing and terribly important question out of the way, you can now get on to explaining your reads on funky and TOF yes?

@TOF:

fair enough

[Rhinox]

fitz: what do you think Bastion's misunderstanding about how a seer works says about his alignment?

This funky wagon is getting boring. There's no counterwagon and everyone is totally apathetic just waiting back for nothing to happen. That tells me he's probably town, albeit completely useless.

Here is a new wagon thats been dying to happen lately.

unvote, vote: Hiraki

Make it happen guys.

[Rhinox]

Shoulda announced vla this weekend. Apologies. I'll get caught up ttomorrow.

[Rhinox]

Well trying to get a wagon on Hiraki completely failed so

unvote

, not accomplishing anything there.

iama just made some pretty solid points against funky. I wanna take a look at hiraki and his wagon first thought before I decide where to put my vote back down.

[Rhinox]

fitz story checks out via searching his posts. No posts made since last thursday on site.

However what I don't like is that in past games, when fitz is town and games are dying, he's usually the one to speak up and try to drive activity forward. He's been lurky and prod dodging for most of the time he's been in the game well before the connection problems. I think Primate and Elmo have been the ones trying to make a case for why he's actually scummy and not just lurkerscum, and the points aren't horrible, but I do think iama's case against funky is better. I'm still a little uneasy that the funky wagon sat there for so long with nobody really pushing anything. It could be as elmo described though.

This is a tough call, I could go either way, but I'm going to

vote: funky

with the deciding tiebreaker being funky HAS to be scum, because if he's town we're pretty much screwed whether we lynch him or not.

[Rhinox]

Little Less than 12 hrs to deadline, no guarantee I'll get another post in.

unvote, vote Havingfitz

Fitz is not L-1 and funky is down to L-3. Hiraki should be the hammer vote then. Doing this to make sure we have a lynch today. I know others have also said they'd switch if they had to but I don't like the idea of last minute scrambling when I won't be around to switch if need be.

Hiraki, TOF, scooby, one of you better be hammering soon.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP: or iama can hammer too

[Rhinox]

The fact we aren't looking at anyone on the D1 mislynch is asinine.

fitz, YOU were on the D1 mislynch

ninja'd by yos again so I won't bother repeating stuff I was gonna say

[Rhinox]

Jus letting you know i'm on limited access tthis weekend.

Pretty much everyone is scum as been said. Well 2 others are town. The players i've been feeling best about are sirb for sure is own, and then on equal level after that, yos2, iama, and scooby i've felt ok about. 2 of them have to be scum though, but i'm pretty sure the other town is amongst those 3. That means by POE, all 3 of primate, tof, and funky are scum.

@sirb: tof isnt a red herring if he's mafia and not wolf.

@iama: i'd suspecct that if we lynch mafia today, the wolves would then pretty much have the greenlight to shoot the seer if they want, so maybe a seer shouldnt claim? But youre right if we lynch wolf or town i'd think theyd have to be trying to shoot mafia. Or maybe its moot and he seer has a guilty today? Even if not theyd have 2 innos is that enough to claim?


I'll read and vote after i get off my phone and back to a computer. This post was hard enough to make >.>

[Rhinox]

If it's 2:1:1 and we lynch wolf, mafia kills a townie and it's 1:1.

Lol... this ignorance seems staged imo

[Rhinox]

hypo results:
yos is not a wolf.
TOF is not a wolf.

[Rhinox]

Alright so funky is still scum as hell, but on the off chance this ignorance was genuine:

If it's 2:1:1 and we lynch wolf, mafia kills a townie and it's 1:1.

It means he's a wolf and not mafia. So he'll have to wait today.

vote: TOF

[Rhinox]

Anyone other than me, lol.

Gonna be out for today, still fine with lynching any of the 3 I previously mentioned.

[Rhinox]

woah. I missed the TOF wagon there.

Rhinox got a case for that lynch? I know there was a lot on day 1 that got discarded on day 2. But is there anything new to add?

Well I kinda already explained how by POE townhunting, all 3 of {TOF, funky, Primate} are probably scum. Reason is that I feel reasonably comfortable in my belief that the other 2 townies besides myself are in a group of {SirB, scooby, iama, yos2}. So really I am fine with lynching any of those 3 today.

I suppose I don't really have a better reason for picking TOF over the other options other than for 3 gut feelings: a) if I'm wrong about any of those 3 its probably primate, b) I'm nervous about everyone being ok to lynch funky today given that it means both scum factions are ok with it + the comment that means he's more likely wolf than mafia, and c) I feel like TOF has gone largely ignorned even though there have been times she was getting votes and for example when Hiraki was trying to get her lynched - no one was rushing to vote her but nobody was saying why she wasn't scum. So that just tells me that she's most likely mafia with 2 scum partners "defending" her by ignoring her and the points against her and focusing on lynching others throughout the game.

I don't really have any new case to add, but at this point cases aren't really the most important part. I think elmo had the right idea yesterday when he mentioned townhunting as a better strategy and I think its more relevant today. There are 2 townies besides myself.

Town

Rhinox
Sir B
...
{Scooby, Yos2, iama} <--- 1 town here, other 2 scum, equal level for now, haven't identified which of the 3 is town or scum
...
...
...
{Primate, TOF, funky} <--- all have to be scum by POE argument, factions mostly undetermined except for gut feelings

Nothing today so far has changed my feelings. Primate said some things, but is it enough to make me think he's town and all 3 of scooby, yos2, and iama are scum? Thats a real hard idea to swallow.

That TOF L-1 vote on funky sure looks like a mafia on cruise control knowing the lynch is not on one of their own. idk I guess maybe it could be a bus too. I'm just looking at TOF's iso yesterday. In #290:

I don't think Funky is particularly scummy other than lurkerism, but in this game, that does look scummy.

So thats a pretty big fencesit. But after that point, she voted me, she voted scooby, she said hiraki was deserving of a wagon, then finally after iama's case she said she liked the funky case but never voted him. Then today no discussion of voting anyone else, just plopping down an L-1 vote. But either way there's just no way TOF is town. I can't even see her being more town than Primate, let alone scooby, yos, or iama. And yeah funky's not more town than anybody but my gut is telling me to lynch TOF first - that TOF is more likely mafia while funky is more likely wolf just based on how they're acting and things said.

[Rhinox]

And so everything grinds back to a halt. Whats everybody doing?

Its pretty clear TOF is scum. I don't get why no one will even acknowledge the case on her. I suspect she is mafia and the reason a wagon won't build is because she has 2 scum partners refusing to bus.

I don't see myself voting scooby today. He's been in my possible-town list pretty much all game and I haven't seen anything to change that. Yos, I don't see how your accusation against scooby applies specifically to him. What about iama's funky vote today, or TOF's funky vote? Did they show evidence that they were concerned about the situation we're in? I don't understand why with 5 scum and 3 town, you've zero'd in on scooby as most probable scum? That doesn't make much sense, you haven't really mentioned him in a scum context before today. You mentioned you're taking credit for starting earlier wagons on TOF and funky - neither of them have been lynched. Are you ok with that? Earlier in the game we talked a bit about Primate's meta, but since then you haven't given your thoughts on him. Where do you stand now? I have Primate listed as almost certainly scum by POE, would you agree with that? Who's town?

SirB, what are your thoughts on TOF now?
Iama, still only interested in lynching funky?
Primate - you were waiting for scooby's thoughts, he gave them, you didn't really comment on them, didn't vote funky either. Where do you stand?
Scooby - funky only or would you consider another lynch?
TOF - so who's the other wolf then? you left SirB, Primate, and iama out of your scum reads.
Funky - __________________

I have no problems lynching funky today but I think all the evidence strongly points to TOF=mafia, funky=wolf and lynching mafia > lynching wolf. If people don't agree with that its time to speak up.

[Rhinox]

I'm also a little weirded out by how easily the Funky wagon is moving today; it's had no opposition at all, which in a game with this many scum means that basically all the scum in both groups are probably backing the wagon, or at least not fighting it. Could be a bus, I guess, but I don't really see scum bussing at this point of the game.

This was my original thinking too, which is part of the reasoning why I think funky is more likely a wolf. Whats one scum partner going to do to fight this wagon?

Well and it depends on what you mean by "fight it". SirB was exploring other options besides funky. As were you. (and I am too, to be fair) And Primate being all "oh I was going to hammer" and then never voting or commenting on the scooby reads he said he was waiting for. All of those actions kinda are passive-aggressively "fighting" the wagon.

I feel like I could make a pretty good guess at the scum teams right now if I had to: funky and primate are the wolves. Primates comment today about how he was willing to hammer, yesterday: he led the fitz counterwagon to funky. yeah damn the iso really makes sense all game he's been fighting the wagon calling it lazy leading counter wagons now today all of a sudden he says he's ok with the wagon he was going to hammer. I mean that just reeks of wolf scum partner who can no longer afford to defend funky.

As for mafia its TOF for sure. and the other 2 are in the group of {scooby, iama, yos} - yeah not looking forward to dissecting that group apart. Both scooby and iama - really excited to lynch funky today. iama hasn't done anything else yet. Scooby did give some other reads when pressed. yos - idk maybe you're the 3rd mafia trying to play it cool so all 3 mafia aren't on the same funky wagon? idk, its really hard to decide all 3 of you have seemed like town to me but 2 of you have to be scum so...

----

As for is it better to lynch mafia or wolf today - I think after contemplating it for the last hour or so I'm of the opinion it doesn't really matterm with still a slight preference on lynching mafia in order to keep our fate in our own hands. I did type out my thoughts on the scenarios but will not post them in order to not help anybody decide the best course of action, but as far as I can tell we're at a point in the game where if everybody makes the optimal choices the wolves can't win and its going to come down to a town vs maf endgame.

[Rhinox]

iam/primate: yeah I was just saying that if we lynch a wolf then we could lose the game tonight where as lynching mafia we're guaranteed to have another day iama you're right though in your assessment in how the next day would play out man I just wanna lynch scum there is no way funky can be town he's at L-1 now I'll sleep on it tonight and hammer in the morning unless someone else beats me to it (been drinkin tonight don't wanna make any major decisions without having a clear head)

[Rhinox]

Oh come on really???

Bah go mafia