Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Aneninen]

/in

[Aneninen]

Almost everyone has posted, but only

6

people have confirmed in the way instructed.

You should all have your Role PMs.

The Game thread is here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=60351

Please confirm by posting "Ready" in-thread.

As you wish.

posting "Ready" in-thread.

[Aneninen]

Okay, just trolling.

Here it is:

Ready

[Aneninen]

A haiku with inanity

I've just rolled my dice
Pigeons picked up all of them
VOTE: BBT now

[Aneninen]

I've run out of time now. Catching up later. Or at least I hope so.

[Aneninen]

Catching-up

Killapenguin, 54 – the post in itself is null. What I don't understand is not voting for Dodgy just because Vettrock did that before. On the other hand, Vettrock's question in 61 is legit too.

Mastin, 62 (and her pre-game posts) – Mastin is being Mastin, lol. (Although I admit that I have very little experience in playing with her.)

Wicked, 68 – there's truth in your logic. But, according to my experience, making discussions and cases out of very little things is a null-tell.

Heartless, 84 – why is Eyestott a good vote? By the way, are you SK again? ^_^

Killapenguin, 88 – this post, along with the other one shows that he's very defensive. Tean noticed the same in 93. However, since he's a relatively new player, I'm not sure whether it is an alignment tell at all.

Wicked, 101 – agreed, setup speculation is useless now.

EyeStott, 102 – (Note to self: re-check this post after EyeStott flips. Sorry, everyone, I can't explain this because of the site rules.)

Dodgy, 108 – why the vote? Is it the thing written in 111?

Mastin, 121 – why is Davesaz scum? Or was it a joke?

Davesaz, 129 instead of advocating your dislike, why don't you ask for her reasons? (Okay, I didn't like 132 at all. I don't know why, it may be an intuition.) Side-note. In another game I found Davesaz so scummy that he was my mislynch plan (I was scum there). So, I'm going to think twice before starting scumreading him.

________

So, I know that I haven't been able to produce too many useful things. I know. But, these things might be useful later.

[Aneninen]

I wrote my doubts about Davesaz in my previous post.
Sure, his readlist in 177 is pigeon poop. Full of nulls and many of the active players aren't there at all. His VT-claim was too early as well. Despite of these I still think he's town. The speed of his wagon and the lack of any resistance strengthen this read.

These players were or are on his wagon: Mastin2, Copper, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, Eyestott.
There must be at least one scum among those names.

Mastin2 – this wagon is a null-tell, she started it and started pushing it.
Copper – he noticed the same in 200 as I posted here. Not likely.
Wicked – sufficient-looking reasoning in 159. May or may not in itself, but because that wall contained plenty of other reads, less likely.
Dodgy – He pointed out that Mastin–Eyestott–Davesaz interaction thing in 147 and it seems that he's working with that. I'm unsure whether he's right about that but it seems to have come from a town mindset. Plus, he unvoted later. Very unlikely.
Tean – even if Davesaz's readlist was bad, there were more than 4 names there and he didn't mention that it was full of nulls (182). His reasoning for his vote in 189 is weak. He's the most likely scum on that wagon, I think. Also, he had been talking about BBT before. Sure, he's active elsewhere (I've checked it). Plus, I had a game with BBT before and his Day1 was entirely different. But, I also know that I was trying to drop dislikes and scumreads on the inactive players when I was scum in another game. What if he's (they're?) doing the same?
Eyestott – I don't understand why he jumped on the wagon in 211. May be scum, but he's not the most possible one.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TeanSamargo

[Aneninen]

BBT prod dodges in 221 and reappears a couple of hours later to vote for Dodgy. (I also think that he misrepresented Dodgy there.) I think it's something I don't like at all.

Killapenguin's 222 gave me town vibes, even if I didn't agree with everything.

Tean, 231 – so, do you think Eyestott's vote for Davesaz was opporunistic? That's just lol! What would you call

your

Davesaz-vote?

Jackal, we all hope that you're okay!

I can’t speak for mastin, but I know that when

I

reaction test, I am hoping to get reactions from as many people as I can - not just the person that my reaction test targets/regards. Even if mastin was focusing on just you, I think her reaction test had potential to provoke anyone. TL;DR - I don’t think you were the only test subject.

Well, shouldn't we let Mastin talk about his own reaction test?
Because, I don't see where talking about reaction tests really goes. Unless we want to be paranoid and think that every single post is a reaction test. Who likes washing the dishes? ^_^
Also, who's scum besides Davesaz according to your reads?

once again if someone has direct meta?

I met Vettrock in my very first Newbie. His gameplay was even slower than this one.

[Aneninen]

@Aneninen
So what's your read on Vettrock?

He could be town for now. I tried to meta him but I couldn't find any scum games so, eh.

@Wicked
How confident are you about Dave being scum? It's true the early claims happened in Rome.

72% sure

Why 72%?

Copper (and others): to tell the truth, the more I read Davesaz's posts the surer I am that he's town. His posts are very similar as they were in the first game I met him. (With the significant exception that I don't want to mislynch him now ^_^ )

I gave reasons for my vote. Why can't I give reasons and vote on my top scumread without it being "sheeping" simply because of how many other people are voting him for different reasons?

Mind my answer, you even quoted it:

"May be scum, but he's not the most possible one."

@Dave
Why did you attempt to read only the players on your wagon?

He attempted to read me too and I'm not on his wagon.

Who happen to be the only active players. I can't read inactive ones.

clearly Aneninen was chosen because of his activity level, the fact your read on him is null because you are waiting for content doesn't raise an eyebrow, right...

???

As for BBT's catchup. I don't know what to think. It seems to be townish but a catchup like that could be faked by a scum too. Also, I haven't got an idea why Dave rushed to "null-read" me. Maybe because I'm explicitly away from his wagon...?

[Aneninen]

I don't think Dave missed who were on his wagon. Or did he post something like that? If so, I must have missed something. As usual.
Also, I don't think I'm that active.
And I don't understand why I was on his list.

(This has been one of the most useful posts I've ever wrote, I suppose. ^_^ )

[Aneninen]

Preemptive prod dodge.
I haven't read anything recently.

[Aneninen]

Okay. I'm trying to catch-up. In my next post. Soon.

[Aneninen]

@Aneninen
Lol, I'm used to your posting style.

Good.
Let me give tell you something important.

Spoiler:

Oh no, this isn't important at all. It's the pigeon again. TROLOLOL!

Now I can see a world where town_Dave tries to read Aneninen because they previously had a game together and comes up with a blank, so idk, it's not such a strong scumtell anymore and I continue disliking everyone finding an angle to jump on the wagon (BBT being the latest addition).

I think the same.
I also understand that Dave's very cautious. As far as I can remember he was townreading me in our first game together. And I was

very

thankful for that read ^_^ (Oh, Dave answered it with one word later.)

Dodgy, 307

"My read on dave has been lessened by the way the wagon built up on dave"

– mm-hmm.
308 –

"However his

(BBT's)

read on Tean is slighty odd."

– I'm interested in BBT's answer too. I found it in 335 but I don't understand why those posts are that town. (Especially 198 was scummy according to my reads.)

Eyestott, 315 – Huh?

In general, Dodgy/Eyestott, the conversation around those posts: Dodgy gives me town-vibes. Eyestott gives me scum-vibes.

BBT, 329 – In that post I examined

only

the Davesaz-wagon. 334 – Why was Beast's post that scummy?

Killapenguin, 345 – please, can't you make the post numbers linkable? Anyway, this post seemed to be townish.

Copper, 352 – I must have missed something but... are you still scumreading Davesaz??? Also, do you think that Eyestott and Dodgy are scums together?

Wicked, 371 – I think it was explained before why Davesaz had wanted to get a read on me. It's unclear what your reads on BBT and Dodgy are. 372 – As for Davesaz, I think I've already told all everything.

Cooper, 390 – That's a good advice, you too, Dodgy and Eyestott. It's very tiring to follow your discussion.

BBT, 393 – So, are you voting for the same person as Dodgy right now? Hmmm... (However, I don't think you're scum. When I met you first your gameplay was similar.)

[Aneninen]

How sure are you of Dave being town (0-100)? I am confident if Dave is town at least 1 scum was on that wagon, too tempting to pass.

About 90%.
It's not only because I've seen this Davesaz posting style before. But also,
(1) his wagon was emerging very fast
(2) there was no real counterwagon pushed meanwhile (usually the scum try to derail a scum-wagon by building up a counterwagon).

So yes, there was at least one scum on that wagon.

[Aneninen]

@Aneninen
Ok.

vote: Eyes

Although Tean is my strongest scumread, that's also a viable idea. (See my 219 about him and also the Dodgy/EyeStott conversation.) If Eyestott flips scum, Tean is most probably town, or at least, if both of them were scum, it would have been very dumb from them to jump on the Davesaz wagon with those posts. Also, if Eyestott is scum, that may clear Dodgy too, maybe.
Everyone, discuss these!

BBT, 393 – So, are you voting for the same person as Dodgy right now? Hmmm... (However, I don't think you're scum. When I met you first your gameplay was similar.)

Why did you feel the need to tell BBT you didn't think he was scum when you asked him this question, thus reducing the pressure? Seems a little suspicious.

I've played with BBT before. His start here was different from the one I had seen in our game but his later "pushes" are the town-BBT I had met before. So, I simply don't know what to think. Does it make sense now?

I never said I was being the epitome of town, I just don't see how I am being scummy. I am just being useless. I will get to the point where I am useful though.

Couldn't you be useful now?

@Wicked
When someone as active as you gets too many town reads it usually means one of two things:
- His pushes are on town and scum want him to be seen as solid town or will at least not cast doubt on him.
- He is scum himself.
In this instance I am starting to think your push on Dave is incorrect and he just is naturally scummy, but I'm still pretty sure you are town.

Interesting thoughts indeed, as for the first part. We should remember them later.

[Aneninen]

Catch-up.

Heartless, why is Mastin scum? 424 seems to be an insufficient answer for that. I agree with you about the Davesaz-wagon, it's pigeon poop with scum(s) on it. 425 – I don't think Dodgy or Mastin are good ideas now, Eyestott may be okay.
As for this in 428:

"i have to go pee now"

– ...and people are calling

me

a fluffy lunatic??! ^_^

Wicked, 429

"That makes sense but doesn’t answer my question. I’m not asking you why you town read BBT, I’m curious why you felt obligated to attach that statement to your question. "

– I'm not townreading BBT, I'm unsure about him. As for that comment, I know that it's going to sound scummy but sometimes I make remarks for myself for later. Even if I use the pronoun "you".

Mastin, 432 – I disagree with some of your reads. Eg. I just don't see a scum-dave here, nor a lean-town Tean. What is more important for me is this: how sure are you about your BBT read?

Killapenguin, 440 – first of all, use this: [p8ost]440[/p8ost] – remove the 8s and it'll link to your post.

[Aneninen]

Okay, I've seen it, Mastin.
Having no read of my own, I believe in your BBT read now.

[Aneninen]

I've never been able to establish a firm read on BBT, check my posts. Or I misremember something now. It's late here. On the other hand, why would I fake my gameplay just because of you? You know, I've met quite a couple of players before in different games.
(Or, it's also possible that I've been unable to interpret your post at all.)

[Aneninen]

Although Tean is my strongest scumread, that's also a viable idea. (See my 219 about him and also the Dodgy/EyeStott conversation.) If Eyestott flips scum, Tean is most probably town, or at least, if both of them were scum, it would have been very dumb from them to jump on the Davesaz wagon with those posts. Also, if Eyestott is scum, that may clear Dodgy too, maybe.
Everyone, discuss these!

No where do you say what happens if i'm town.
Yeah, so you're determined to read eyestott!scum no matter what happens. Got it.¹
So, pretty much everyone is scumreading me. Dont i like, have the right to an attorney or something? Wicked, as pretty much the only person not thinking i'm super scummy, please help. I promise I'm town.²

(1) Had you read my previous posts you would know the answer for this. In short: My strongest scumread is Tean, whom I'm voting for. If you flip town, I'm pretty sure that he's scum. (Your town-flip wouldn't be an alignment tell on Dodgy, on the other hand.)
(2) That seems to be a kind of whining. If you were townread by most of us, you wouldn't be wagoned. And to tell the truth, you're doing your best so that I may vote for you.

wait wait, this thinking is not at all town... you say here you dont want to put dave at L-1(ok this has been discussed, i can understand that) but you go further and state that its worse because

scum dave

could self hammer?
Firstly why on earth would he hammer himself as scum? Secondly why is scum hammering themself there a bad position for the town? a scum lynch d1 is great for the town. like what are you even thinking? how can you honestly believe what you said here as town?

^
This.
I posted a similar answer for that part of your 463, but Dodgy already summarized my thoughts here. Eyestott's 477 was an answer I didn't like. Eg.

"Besides, if he's scum, he's not likely to start being townread by the majority."

– scums can turn the tide many times, especially on Day1. (Slips included, unfortunately.)
(Sure, there

are

situations when it's beneficial for the scum to self-hammer but this, and in general, Day1s are not amongst those.)


Tean, 471 – nullcontent, it doesn't change my reads. (I've checked your overall activity too but that has been uninformative.)

Eyestott, 480 – your wagon is

not

uncontested. The Davesaz wagon is still there.

you know, actually, i'm looking at the vote counts and i think tean is a scum anchor wagon. it's been static from the beginning and it's momentum is just PLOP sitting there.

What sort of pigeon poop was that?!
I think both Penguin and me provided our reasons for being on that wagon.

[Aneninen]

Say what you want about bird excrement, but Antihero has a pretty irritating habit of being right. My gut tells me this is one of those times.
Who else besides Tean are you scumreading? (I don't care if you said them before, restate them.)
-TTH

Antihero's wrong and that's not the first case from him being wrong about me.
It's true that I could move my vote to the Eyestott-wagon but I have a reason for not doing so and I don't want to explain it

right now

.

As for my reads, don't expect too much, because it's full of null-s (unsorted-s), "if"-s and "but"-s.

KillaPenguin – lean town. His first posts were very "survival-styled", but I liked his later posts.
BBT – if Mastin's town, he's town too. If Mastin's scum, no idea. My own reads are very far from being firm.
Eyestott – possible scum, but not together with TeanSamargo. (It would have been very dumb if two scums had jumped on the Davesaz-wagon almost at the same time.)
Heartless – null and auto-FoS. And you must know, why. (For others: we had a game together not so long ago. Davesaz was there too.)
Davesaz – most probably town and I've already explained it many times.
Copper – lean town, but because of his recent vote for Mastin, alongside still scumreading Davesaz he's more like null.
Vettrock – lean town, but I'd like to see more posts.
Aneninen – probably pigeon
Dodgy – if Eyestott's scum, he must be town. If Eyestott's town, I'll reconsider my current townread on him.
Wickedstjr – lean town, plenty of content, but he was (and is) on the Davesaz-wagon, which I think is a scum-driven wagon
Beastcharizared – null and having no idea at all
TeanSamargo – probably scum, not only the Davesaz-wagon, but also his early posts and I don't like that he's lurking. Not together with Eyestott
Mastin – null, unable to read her.

That's all I have now.

[Aneninen]

BBT.
I'm trying to explain it again then.
You must remember that I met you long ago in another game, modded by Kagami. Both of us were town. Your very early posts had been very different from the posts you made here. That was pretty much FoS. Your later posts here – attacking someone vehemently – were, on the other hand, quite similar to those posts in our past game in which you had been attacking me vehemently because of very small things.
That'swhy I'm not sure what to think about you. Mastin started protecting you, and because of not having useful reads on you I decided to believe in her read about you – for now. (If Mastin flips scum later, I'll need to reconsider my reads on you.) I hope that I'll be able to establish a firm read on you later.

Is it clear now?

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

Copper, 527 – a flawless observation. Indeed, I don't like playing scum. Stress might have something to do with it, yes, but basicly, it's about something else. You can check the scum QT of 573, I posted there why I'm playing (and loving) Mafia. Being a scum is much less useful for me. (If you're interested in, I can explain it post-game – or in the dead topic.)

Tean, 530 – he's not communicating with me at all. Am I the only one who finds this strange?!! Also, I won't comment his lines about KillaPenguin for certain reasons. And wow, he asks Penguin about Mastin! I think he's just trying to build up a wagon against her. Or setting up a later mislynch?

EyeStott, 542 – okay, I'm buying your claim for now. We'd lose more if we lynched a PR than we could lose if that had been a fake-claim. In the latter case he wouldn't get too far in the game anyway. Maybe I should ISO Dodgy later. Especially because his posts right after the claim. (Somehow I doubt that he kept on arguing with EyeStott and he realized only in 558 the claim.)

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

BBT, 583 and later posts – Do you remember NeuroScience Mafia? You were scumreading me for a long time. I gave answers for all of your questions. I even admitted that I had made a mistake before. You kept tunnelling me, regardless of my answers. In the end I voted for you because if someone plays the "Regardless of Card" (do you remember that concept?), that's auto-FoS for me and I started to think that you were a scum performing a deathtunnel.
So, let's make it short now: You are wrong. I'm town. Even if you don't believe it. I could answer all of your questions, point out all the errors in your posts but that wouldn't change your reads at all. And I don't have enough IRL time for this.

[Aneninen]

Everyone can check Mini 1584 so as to see: answering BBT's questions didn't change anything. Sorry, but I simply don't have time to get involved in a prolonged fight which leads me nowhere. The only difference is that right now I don't think BBT is scum, because it's the same BBT I met there.

[Aneninen]

Okay, even if I know that you won't accept it, I'll give you an answer for something, BBT.

You wrote this:

"Anen, again, this is an opportunistic time to be jumping on the eye wagon. Can you give your reasoning for eye!scum? 'Eyestott may be okay' does not quite qualify you to join the wagon."

First of all, I've already gave my reasons for my scumreads. I strongly think that Davesaz is town, because of his gameplay and because of the quick emergence of his wagon, without any counterwagons. So, I examined the players on that wagon, because there must be at least one scum there. My strongest scumread, as I wrote before, was and is Tean. But, I thought that EyeStott is possibly scum too – but not together with Tean.
I intentionally stayed away from that wagon because

I wanted to see who puts him at L–1

. Putting players at L–1 is a best way for the scums to force townies to claim. Unfortunately, EyeStott claimed at L–2 so my plan didn't work. After his vote Penguin said that it was an L–1 but it wasn't. I know it's very FoS that I don't essentially scumread Penguin for that, but (1) I too think it's unlikely that both Tean and Penguin are scum and in other cases I don't want to push Penguin right now. Hint: there's a reason for it and you noticed that reason too in one of your posts. However, I interpreted Penguin in a different way.

[Aneninen]

Can you summarize your questions in a separate post? Frankly, I don't have too much time.

[Aneninen]

As for my readlist. What the hell do you expect on Day1? Detailed and firm reads on everyone? All I could do was to collect the pro-s and the con-s for the players. Most of the game has been (1) nullposts (2) pushing the Davesaz-wagon and (3) pushing the Eyestott wagon. Apart from those, very few things have happened so far.
However, you're right about one thing. I should examine the Eyestott wagon thouroughly whether I can find something useful there too. (Providing that Eyestott's claim is real.)

[Aneninen]

What else do you have at all? I've quick-checked your posts and I've found nothing else.

[Aneninen]

Wicked, 630 – (sigh) Yes, I wanted to be lazy about BBT. Need I explain it again? His early-posts were very different from the BBT I saw, therefore I thought he's scum. His later posts were similar to his gameplay I met before, they seemed to have come from a townie. So, I was at a loss.
Meanwhile, Mastin started to defend him. Even if I don't know whether Mastin town is (see my readlist), I decided to believe her about Mastin for now. Why? If Mastin's town, she may be right about BBT. If she's scum, there may be no point for her hard-protecting her scumbuddy, so in this case, BBT must be town.
Later, as you can see, BBT jumped on me – and

that's

the BBT I know well. I remember having a long fight with him in a game where both of us were town. I was spending a lot of time with that game because of that, only to achieve – nothing. So I wanted to make the things short (see my 601). As I suspected, he went along. Because of having some time before going to bed, I re-checked his posts to realize that there were not too many things about me. So I answered his two major questions (619, 622). I wish he stopped and realized that he were/is after the wrong player again, but I don't think it would happen.
Post-edit. Having browsed the game for a short while I realized that BBT was doing the same push against Mastin and Eyestott, for example. Maybe I'm simply over-reacting him now.


________

So, let's examine that Eyestott-wagon.

Dodgy – long fight with him, the starter of the wagon. As I've said before I'll examine him later, there are quite a few things about his recent posts which I don't like.
BBT – those posts linked by him were indeed weird. I'm not sure whether scummy enough for a vote. But, BBT's play and the fact that he still hasn't dropped the Eyestott-case fully, suggests me that he's not likely scum on that wagon.
Copper – Basicly that's a naked vote, referring to my previous "there was scum on the Davesaz-wagon". (As far as I can understand.) He picked Eyestott but he had never posted a lot about him. I don't like this at all. However, he jumped off later, before the claim.
Davesaz – maybe it's only a player-in-a-survival-mode vote but it doesn't change my reads on Davesaz.
Mastin – changing from Davesaz, because of BBT's push (? – unsure). Either she's seriously misreading everything or she's a scum who wants to force as many players to claim as she can.
Penguin – I posted about this topic before.

So, either Eyestott's claim is fake, in this case this analysis is pigeon poop because it doesn't tell us anything about other scums.
If the claim is real, yet again, there must be at least one scum amongst those players.

Mastin, Copper and Dodgy were on both the Davesaz and the Eyestott wagon. I'm going to examine these three players next (as I have time for it), because I don't think BBT, Davesaz or Penguin are scum.

[Aneninen]

I've just looked into the thread but I haven't read it yet.

BBT, isn't it possible that I haven't made the conclusions of the Eyestott-wagon nor answered your post because I f-cking havent been here?!

By the way, I'll be a bit antisocial for a while, prepare for that. I wouldn't say that life s-cks. I only say that after I die I'll express my issues because it has been simply the most unbalanced, unfair and un-playable thing I've ever seen and this has been the most useless, pointless and annoying life I've ever lived with zero to no morals at all.

Maybe tomorrow, maybe then I'll answer everything. Or not.

[Aneninen]

You know what? I f-cking don't care.
I only care about my next reincarnation right now because, if there's a little piece of justice in this Multiverse, that one will be a joyful and a successful life which actually is worth living.

[Aneninen]

BBT:
Sorry, not today. And it's not because of you. Nor because of the game. I'm simply sick of everything. And I won't tell because I don't want to bring everyone down. Not a big thing in itself but you know, when time passes, you're almost 40 and you notice that your Effort/Success ratio is in the bottom 1% of the human population for no f-cking reason, then you don't really care about games like this.

Maybe tomorrow. Or next day. If nothing changes inside, I'll replace out because I don't want to spoil the game for you all out there.

Copper: basicly the same goes for you too.

[Aneninen]

Prod dodge.
Maybe tomorrow I'll have more time.

[Aneninen]

Sorry for being away since my 669.

(1) Because of that, I must have missed a couple of things here, and I think there were some questions I left unanswered. If they're still relevant, ask them again, please!

(2) How much time did we have 'till Deadline before the lynch Yesterday?

(3) I don't think that both of the kills have been strange. Eyestott has been no surprise, after all he claimed a PR. Dodgy? That's an interesting question. Did he claim or crumb anything?

(4) Also, this is important: if you're a Vig and we fail to lynch a scum Today,

do not kill

Tonight unless you're 100% sure that you kill a scum!

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

First of all, Copper, I've just found that you claimed Vengeful yesterday. In this case, you shall not be lynched Today even if someone scumreads you.
Think about this: 10 players are alive. If we lynch Copper and he

is

Vengeful, he uses his ability and that can hit a townie. At Night2, there may be two other kills. If both of them hits a different townie, on Day3 there will be 6 players. The setup contains PIKxxxx, so there will be at least 3 Mafias; lynching them will be impossible. Insta-Mafia win. We should avoid this situation at all costs!

Heartless, 1085 – neither the post, nor the vote makes sense.

Mastin, 1090 – why are you sure that Heartless is town? Personal experience?

BBT, 1092 – that part about Vettrock is interesting.

"If eyestott is no surprise for the kill, may I ask why you think Copper is still alive? I mean, his claim is the worst one for scum to have to deal with during the Days. Copper is prime target for kill if he's town, no?"

– was that for me? Alongside with the other questions?
As for Copper, see the part above!

KillaPenguin, 1093 – I don't agree certain things here (eg. I don't think Copper is a sure-lynch Tomorrow if he's still here and I don't see why we should all vote for Beast) but this is another town-post from him.

And I really want to see a Vettrock post!

[Aneninen]

Later this evening I come.

[Aneninen]

Okay,

BBT, the answers, although some of them might be irrelevant now:

Spoiler:

583

"The 'looking for confirmation' from Mastin for your read on me is weird as well. Not sure what I make of that yet."

– At that time I had no strong read on you. Mastin shouted all the time that you're town. In short, my thoughts were the following: if Mastin's town it's still better to believe her about you

right then

, until I get a surer read on you. If she's scum, it's very unlikely that she would protect you so vehemently if you were her scumbuddy. Right now I don't think you're scum.

"460 - Another scummy post from Anen. Like, he is being careful here to make sure he can't be accounted for anything he says."

– this refers to an interaction between Copper and me. Copper said that I was trying to trick him, I responded that it would be pointless to trick

directly him

, since he's not the only player I met before in different games. Then he replied it was partly a reaction test or whatever. I simply don't understand why you interpreted my post in the way you did.
As for my readlist, which was "magical" in your opinion. Someone had asked for a list before and that was the best I could do that time. Even I admitted that it hadn't been too much. Frankly, what should I have done? Making up things out of nothing? Lying that I have good reads on most of the players?

714 –

"Anen, you 'examine' the wagon but don't actually analyse anything. You examine the wagon and then state you will 'examine dodgy later', well, wouldn't the time be now? You know, when you're examining the wagon?"

– refers to my 669. I wanted to analyse the players on the Eyestott-wagon. I thought that Eyestott's claim was real (and it turned out to be real later). The scummiest-looking players were Mastin, Copper and Dodgy. Dodgy is dead. Copper would be a bad lynch Today, I've already explained it, why. There were Davesaz (dead), KillaPenguin and you. I don't want to lynch Penguin. Nor you. So, the one who remains is Mastin. I'll ISO her later (and I'm

pretty sure

that you'll remind me every now and then that I promised an ISO about her so, that will happen sooner or later. But I want to catch-up with the game first.)

That's all I've found in your ISO.

Catching-up with everything else.

Spoiler:

Heartless, 1107 – explaining and explaining about their hydra. As SK they were more "team-like". My intuition would say they're simply fluffing which is scummy but my experience contradicts this. The only thing I'm quite sure that they're not the SK.

Copper, 1109 – That's silly. It's sure that "leading townies" should be questioned after a mislynch but, I don't think it's enough reason for a vote

in itself

. I've seen plenty of townies totally misreading players (and I've done that too a couple of times before).

Mastin, 1110 – Hmmm... I remember Antihero fighting with me in another game. We had a vehement argument there and both of us were town. Do you mean something like that?

Wicked, 1111 –

"I already explained yesterday that I was giving beast and vettrock a free pass because I knew their lynches would yield close to nothing."

– Where? Can you link it?

Mastin, 1112 – this is a kind of newbscum reasoning. (I mean, it feels like an over-explaining.) Those, who have played a lot with her: is it typical of Mastin as scum?

Vettrock, 1119 – the first part

makes no sense

more precisely, what you're saying is right but I don't see that it explains anything. As for the second part: those names – Heartless, BBT and Beast – weren't on both wagons. By the way, your list about the Eyestott-wagon was incomplete. (I wonder what you're going to post about Mastin later.)
Also, the later posts from Vettrock are very different from his townplay I saw before. Somehow they

seem

to be contentful but they ...aren't.

Beast, 1128 – THAT post helped a lot (Frankly, what if he's SK?)

Mastin, 1131 – Uhhh...

"But I'd have tried to speedwagon you

(Vettrock)

instead."

– where? You mentioned 30% in 678. "Would vote Vettrock" a post later. Okay, you said

"Will lynch bettock in a heartbeat."

in 781 but you hadn't you been talking about lynching Copper seven posts before or so? In itself, I would believe the rest of that post about Davesaz but it feels like "pushing Vettrock without pushing him

too

hard". And the mirror of this behaviour might be in 1133 from Vettrock...

Summary. We really shouldn't perform a mislynch Today. So, instead of a town/scum list I examine the "lynchability". (The names in each groups are from the "worst-lynch" to the "best-lynch" order.)

These players would be terrible lynches in my opinion: KillaPenguin, BBT, Copper. The first two players are town according to my reads, and lynching Copper would be too risky.

These are the may-or-may-not cathegory: Wicked, Beast, Heartless, Tean. Wicked gives me town-vibes, but sometimes I can't focus on his long posts, and it's not a good sign. (I remember doing that as scum – although, I do the same as town...) Beast is a lurksack, I wouldn't lynch him Today but the more he lurks, the more scummy he is. Heartless is eh, I explained it above that he can't be the SK but that's all I'm sure about. I was scumreading Tean, but right now he should start posting again or should be replaced. In the latter case we must see his replacement's concent later.

These seem to be the best ideas: Mastin, Vettrock – check the spoiler They may be scum together too.
But, before I vote I want to ISO both of them. (But that's happening later and I know that tomorrow I'll have a busy day.) If it turns out that I'm misreading these two, the list above should be examined thoroughly.

[Aneninen]

These names were on the Eyestott wagon (in the order of appearance)
Dodgy, BBT, Copper, Davesaz, Mastin, Killapenguin (before Penguin, Copper left the wagon)
Then Davesaz remained, who left and Copper was on the wagon next.

[Aneninen]

A couple of answers, and I don't even say that this'll be an answer for everything – as I said, I'll ISO you sooner or later. (Most probably later, it's late here and I'll be away tomorrow.)
As for your Antihero-read. I would say that I might believe you, for the same reason I believed your BBT read... (If you're town, you may be right, if you're scum such reads for your partners wouldn't make sense) But, if I said that (1) BBT would jump on me again instantly (okay, that was partly a joke), and (2) see below, about BBT!
The next two parts give me a strange feeling... I also use similar (and same) phrases (eg. "I know that it's only my word that...") when I'm town. But, I mimed that in C9++ (Open 573), soooo... either you have a similar base-mindset or what'sitcalled or you're just fooling me. (By the way, you needn't answer this if you don't want to, but, how old are you?)
As for the "helpful hint..." what'll happen if we lynch Vettrock and he flips scum? And what'll happen if he flips town?

Your readlist. I'd be really, really surprised if Penguin were scum. But, the position of BBT disturbs me. You were literally raging on Day1 that he's town. Now he's the 4th scummiest player. What has changed?

[Aneninen]

Mastin, 1151 – as for your age, that answered my question. I had a tiny idea about your posting style, but you're most probably not in the age range for my idea.
Also, it's a coincidence but I think I had read your article about bussing before we met ingame. There are many good thoughts in it, although it doesn't proove in itself that you would never bus as scum...
This:

"Well, then, I suck, and would offer no resistance to being lynched."

made me think... I'm checking your ISO after this post.

Like, Heartless is town, period.¹
Copper I've felt is town for multiple reasons, among them being his push on Heartless (vice-versa, too) and Heartless still being alive, general townposting, and the claim which I found to be town.²
You, Anen, is like I said nearly impossible to explain, but I think you've got a fairly good grasp on why anyway.³
Wicked's still QUITE town-looking to me.⁴
All of those, rather solid.
Beast is the first read I'm not as sure on. I still

think

he is town, but I'm not ABSOLUTELY sure he is. Needless to say, I think lynching him would be a mistake, and at the very least, he should be sorted much later.⁵
Then you get into the bottom four. BBT's been town, but isn't as town as the others are.⁶ killa's been null to me most of the game, and while I did lean slightly town, is weaker than BBT.⁷ Tean's been null basically the entire game (may or may not have fallen onto the scum side at points; I don't remember if I did or not, but if so, couldn't have been by much)⁸, and then there's vettock, who while not a strong scumread has been null or well on the wrong side of null the entire game.⁹
Thus, vettock lynch.

(1) I'm way not sure about them, but they're not a priority right now.
(2) I don't care about Copper right now because we'd lose too much if we lynched him Today, assuming his claim is real.
(3) Lol, I see your point ^_^
(4) I have a similar read on him.
(5) ...well, see below in this post!
(6) Either I'm an idiot or Penguin is town.
(7) The more I read BBT the surer I am that he's town. I know it was only one game we met in, but this BBT is the same one I know.
(8) Tean is doing "such a nothing" that sometimes I almost forget how scummy his early-Day1 was. But... only "almost"!
(9) So... he's "not a strong scumread" now but you wrote "I GUARANTEE you vettock is scum." in 1148 ...what has changed? (Side-note: it's also strange that Vettrock didn't point this out eg. in 1155.)

Vettrock, 1155 –

"You were pretty confident on dave too, except when you weren't online to unvote...

if you try that two days in a row, people might get suspicous.

"

– ick? Was he trying to warn Mastin?!?
Also, you left out Penguin from your wagon-list. Why?

Wicked, 1158 – your answer (954) is noted, I must have missed it. However, we should remember that post if Vettrock flips scum.

BBT, 1161 – And YES, he found the same thing! For me, BBT is pretty much obv-town from now.

When I was talking about this post Anen, I was making reference to the way you're trying to not be held accountable for things you say. For example, you say you've never been able to get a read on me, then you say, or maybe I'm misremembering which I interpret as 'I might be wrong on that, and if I am, well you can't scum-read me for it because I already said I could be wrong.'

I still don't know what should I answer. Your interpretation

is

a possible interpretation. However, I don't think it would be useful if I told that I'm sure about something if I'm not.
(Side-note. Do you remember our game? You were attacking me partly because I wrote that "I'm sure" about someone's alignment...)

Is Copper scummy for being on the wagon or not? Your 'analysis' of him is pretty fluffy. You're scum-reading Mastin...someone whose read you trusted enough to believe I was town is now scum...Nah, this doesn't make sense. Explain.

I've already written that I don't care about Copper

Today

, because lynching him would be bad.
By the way, I didn't scumread Mastin there, check it out, it was an "either... or..." sentence. However, I'll ISO Mastin soon. Partly because of the wagons, partly for other reasons.

Heartless is scum. They remind me of a game I read. I will have to find a link to it later because the name escapes me. It was an open game though and they were the SK I believe. They def were not town.

Uhhh, NO.
Do I understand it right? They were SK in Open 573 -> they're similar here -> they're scum, because of the similarity SK here.
I'm 95% sure that they're NOT SK. I was in that game, I was scum and I knew from Day2 that they were SK. While I was reading their posts I knew their alignment. (Even if I thought they were WIFOMizing by no Kills, f-ck off, we targetted the same player twice!) Their posts here are VERY far from that game. (They may be Mafia, of course.)

Why am I telling this?
Let's see Beast. A couple of null-looking things, eg. 192, 273, 290, 294. In 532

"I could get behind an eyesott lynch."

, in 844

" Also, this type of game is solely my town style of game as it makes me a huge target for a lynch or Vig kill."

is pigeon poop. Sheeping vote for Davesaz in 932. The whole 948 is pigeon poop (explaining that "early-game lurking is a death sentence" from him???) 1143 is WTF.

Adding all these things together, I've got a feeling that Beast is SK. (Post-edit: KillaPenguin, as an answer for your latest post, read this too. What are you thinking about Beast now?)

[Aneninen]

Mastin-mix.
(Because of the sheer amount of content I only mention the "highlights" of her posts.)

Spoiler:

Until 64 not too much real content.

In 121 she tells that Davesaz is scum (her vote was on him before), she repeats it in 154. Apart from

"davesaz is throwing just about every newbscum tell in the book"

(in the latter post) there was no case provided. In 155 she talks about "reaction testing" which mmmight be okay, but isn't it strange that (1) according to her test Davesaz is scumread by her and (2) her vote was on him before...?

201, about Wicked:

"At this point, even if he's scum he's still town because dammit, he's just so damn town in his recent posting."

– we should remember this if either of them flips scum.

202 – talking about a second scumread without revealing it right now. It gets revealed in 284: Heartless, for inactivity.

432 – readlist. Possible scums are Davesaz, Heartless, Eyestott, Dodgy. (Lol, three of those players are dead now...) Everyone else was town there, weak or strong. The beast read evolves into a "f-cking dealwithit" defense by 445.

Voting for Eyestott in 448. (Also remember, she was both on the Eyestott and the Davesaz wagon.)

In 509 and around it seems that she "stabilizes" her scumreads on the wagoned players.

In 673, she votes for Davesaz again, although she doesn't buy Eyestott's claim.

In 674 she starts prodecting BBT.

As far as I can see, the Vettrock scumread appears in 678 for the first time.

938 is a good post about Copper. (A shorter and more readable version of my later post-parts about Copper)

941 now the scumreads are Tean/Vettrock/Eyestott/Davesaz

As for 1082

"Dave, I was gone during the last day of deadline yesterday. But had I not been...I'd have unvoted."

– I've just checked it. It seems that she wasn't active site-wide at that time. So, this part from her may be real. Votes for Vettrock here.

And I've already talked about her latest posts (in differenet posts from me.)

Summary. I think I realized my problem with Mastin. Her reads are changing very quickly and they're moving on a very, very wide scale. I bet she has quite a few "playstyles" (and she knows, I think, why I'm saying this.)
But, before sorting her, I must ask something.

Mastin! How sure are you about your Vettrock read? Plus, if you had to lynch anyone but Vettrock Today, whom would you choose and why?

[Aneninen]

I've been waiting for Mastin's answer so as to decide my best place for my vote. I'm going to post about it tomorrow, alongside with my vote and with my answer to Mastin; it's about 1am now and tonorrow I'm working in the morning.

[Aneninen]

This

post

wall is about Mastin.

(1) She's provided plenty of content about how we should read him, has tried to be very convincing and charming to explain that she's town. –

This may be true but could be easily faked by scum-Mastin too.

(2) Her reads are changing very fast, and they're moving on a very wide scale. They're mostly based upon previous experience, intuition and in very rare cases on specific posts. I can believe that it's a possible gamestyle from her. But, a gamestyle like this is much more useful for a scum than for a townie.
Why do I say that? A gamestyle like this provides a perfect excuse for her if she pushes a mislynch wagon or ends up jumping on one.
This happened in the case of Davesaz too. I can believe that she was away IRL before the end of Day1, but she's experienced enough to use a thing like that for her own advantage.
On the other hand, if my setup speculation (see below!) is not only a worst-case setup but also the correct one and if she really adjusts her gameplay to the particular game she's in,

this behaviour is seriously anti-town

.

(3) She pushed the Davesaz-wagon really hard and as far as I can see, she provided only general things (like "davesaz is throwing just about every newbscum tell in the book" and "reaction testing) about him, instead of a well-built case.

This is a fact.

(4) She was on the Eyestott wagon too, therefore she was on both of the Day1 major wagons. Both Eyestott and Davesaz flipped town.

This is a fact.

(Side-note. A little bit of caveat is this one: it would have been better for the scums if a PR had been lynched on Day1. So, jumping back on the Davesaz-wagon instead of pushing the Eyestott wagon is a mild towntell. Although, it's possible that the scums were going for a sure mislynch instead of a No Lynch.)

(1) is not a real tell in itself. (2) is speculative, I must admit, but it's scummy. However, (3) and (4) are facts.

Why have I waited so long with my read? After all, what I'm saying is not based upon new information.
It was because of the Vettrock push. I never scumread Davesaz. Eyestott, on the other hand looked scummy before his claim (I think I posted somewhere that I'd vote for him), but Mastin's attitude towards Vettrock is a bit different. She started scumreading him on Day1 and it seems to be a non-changing read from her. Also, I too think Vettrock is scummy.

So,

I thought there was a chance that Mastin was town-PR; Gunsmith, RoleCop or another Tracker (1-shot included)

. That'swhy I asked in 1170 these: "Mastin! How sure are you about your Vettrock read? Plus, if you had to lynch anyone but Vettrock Today, whom would you choose and why?"

Her answers can't have come from an investigative PR. I mean, if she knew that Vettrock is scum, he wouldn't have mentioned other posssible names. (She wouldn't have given alternatives, especially for a player (me) who was not voting at that time.) Mentioning Tean could be a bit appeasing (I've never townread Tean), and calling BBT a possible scum is very strange. Not only because she was hard-townreading BBT before, but also because of the fact that I can see no change in BBT's gameplay and her read showed a very big change!

Therefore, Mastin must be scum.

VOTE: Mastin2

Another little caveat.
It

is

possible that Mastin2 is Gunsmith, examined Vettrock and got a positive investigation. That would fit her "90% sure" read, because in this case Vettrock can be Vigilante...
However, I strongly think that we have an SK and not a Vig. Because, in my opinion the Vig should have claimed his/her shot by now. I know that outing a PR would be bad for the town. But, it would help us reading the game – and if we knew that there's probably no SK, we would know that we're in a better situation then eg. I think. So, the gain would be bigger than the loss. (2 PRs are known, if Copper's claim is real, 3. So, most probably there are 3 mafias and an SK. That's what I mean by "worst-case setup". Therefore, we should avoid a mislynch at all costs and that'swhy I've wanted to get the possible surest read I could get.)

Also, some additional things.
I doubt that Mastin would bus in this phase of the game. (I won't explain this because it would help the scums more than the town.)
So, if Mastin is scum, Vettrock can't be scum with her. In this case, if they're SK and Mafia, I'm misreading Beast (because he can't be SK then).
Also, if Mastin is Mafia (and not SK), she does a damm good job by confusing the later partner-analysis. She super-townread (and townreads) plenty of players: Wicked, BBT, Heartless, me (!)... so, if Mastin flips Mafia, I would say that her most possible partner is Heartless, because that tonwread is based upon not only meta but also upon a kind of "we know each other too well" things. (And yes, I know that partner speculation s-cks until we have a scumflip.)

[Aneninen]

Copper, 1181–1189 area – Wait, what?! Two PRs are flipped. You claimed Vengeful. That's three PRs.

If there were two Mafias, there could be only two PRs!!!

(Check out the Wiki!) That means... if the setup is IPTTTTT, your claim is fake!
Two PRs are out, massclaiming would only help the scum, they would be able to find the remaining PRs with no effort at all. So, these posts are very scummy. Also, it was you who tried to convince us after EyeStott had claimed that the town should counterclaim him if there's another Tracker.
Right now I think you're scum who's rolefishing, because you know that we wouldn't dare to lynch you Today. In addition, regardless of your fake-claim, I still think there must be 3 Mafia – and you hope that we'll mislynch someone Today and you can be at LyLo Tomorrow. (Post-edit. Copper's 1208 made no sense at all for me.)

Everyone: do not claim!!!

Beast, 1192 – that post has nothing to do with your scumread on Heartless, yet you voted for them.
Please, summarize your case against Heartless, including whether they're Mafia or SK according to you. Also, in 932 you were sheeping them. Why? Who else do you think is scum?
1197 – why do you want to appease Penguin? Also, what did you mean by this:

"killa, why are you answering for Anti?"

Vettrock, 1198 and 1199 – well, it's better to quote this.

...
I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.

vote: Mastin2

Also, I'm leaning toward BC still as the serial killer, but I'm less certain of that.⁷

Whut?!
His scumreads are Copper, Mastin and BBT, the latter two players are voting for him.
Does he vote for Copper, whose claim may be fake? NO, he assumes that it's real. Does he vote for BBT, who has not a single vote and who (as far as I know) is townread by most of us? NO. Does he vote for Mastin, after I had provided my case against her, alongside with my vote? Yes, of course! And wow, who else is on that wagon? Copper. (His 1207,

"I would consider voting BBT, copper or beast, but as they have no existing wagon, I selected you."

was just as scummy as these posts.)
And who's his SK-read? Our good old SK-suspect, Beast.
Also, he mentions (1198) that Copper's claim may be fake – but he still goes on with the assumption that the claim is real (and tries to explain that there must be an SK).

Vettrock must be scum.

Wicked, 1202 – nice summary. But, you should read the recent posts too! After doing so
(1) Do you STILL think that Vettrock is town?
(2) What do you think about Coppers posts I mentioned in this post?
(3) Also, read my case about Mastin too.
(4) As for your next post: why do you think a massclaim would be useful?

Mastin, 1204 –

"Anen's case is shit, though."

– After I had posted my case, what kind of pigeon poop was that?! If you're town, explain why my case is shyt! As for your 1206: it's not your wagon which is scummy. Your gameplay, including things I've just mentioned here, is.
Mastin, 1205 – I hate to agree with my another scumread but I must: Vettrock must be scum.

________

Summary.

The recent posts from Vettrock and Copper tells me that both of them are Mafia. (Also: both of them were on the Davesaz-wagon, both of them are voting for Mastin, and they've never voted for each other.)
In this case, it's very unlikely that Mastin's a Mafia, so, she must be the SK.

But.
If so, Beast can't be the SK, although he may be scum with Copper/Vettrock.
Tean could be scum with anyone. I can see no useful interactions with the players mentioned here (apart from not liking a Beast lynch).

As for the others. Penguin, BBT and maybe Wicked are town. (The latter one is only maybe, because he thinks that a massclaim would be useful.)
No idea about Heartless. They can't be SK, but if they're Mafia, Copper can't be Mafia (on Day1 Heartless pushed Copper, as far as I can remember).

The problem is that I have too many scumreads (5) and too few townreads (3). So, I'm misreading at least one player. Most probably Tean or Beast. (If Copper's claim is fake, it's possible (although not likely) that there are only two Mafias – if that's true, maybe both of them???) However, what if there are mistakes in my other scumreads too...?
Therefore, I think I must vote for my surest scumread now, regardless of my speculation above.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vettrock

Mastin: I still think you're scum and I'm waiting for an answer from you about my case. I've moved my vote only because I think it's less possible that I'm misreading Vettrock than I'm misreading you. But, unless my reads change a lot, I'm willing to lynch you just as much as Vettrock. (Lynching Copper would be too risky now, even if I think that the claim was fake.)

Post-edit.
Vettrock, 1210

"I think the most likely scenario is that there are 3 scum, and a serial killer.

It is possible copper just doesn't know how to add.

Three T's is the most likely of these as I think the fewer T's the more unlikely the scenario."

Need. I. Say. More?

[Aneninen]

You noticed that his speculation made no sense if his claim was real. Yet your conclusion was that he couldn't add the T's and you voted for Mastin.
By the way, you posted a lot about Copper's setup speculation and you hadn't mention that we shouldn't claim before I posted the same.
If you

really

had been against a massclaim you could have posted it zillions of times. Instead of doing so, you were explaining that we must have an SK – thanks, but I too explained it a couple of times before.

[Aneninen]

[OFF]

I must share this with everyone now. (And whenever you call me a freak next time, remember that someone actually MADE this video.)

Intergalactic Proton Powered Electrical Tentacled Advertising Droids

[/ON]

Posting real content soon.

[Aneninen]

So, answers. (Sorry, I'm still laughing on my video I posted.)

Vettrock, 1214 – So, you're saying that you've been scumreading Copper. Either I'm unable to read (in this case I'll ask an Advertising Droid to help me ^_^), or your read, before this post, was a fence-sitting at best.

"So everyone else who hasn't said they are against the massclaim, if they post now they are scum because they could have said it before as well?"

– I think it was BBT, Wicked and you, who reacted to that post. I'm townreading BBT for several other reasons. Wicked told that he would agree with a massclaim and that weakened my townread on him. In your case, it's not the only reason for my scumread.

Copper, 1215 –

"I did not read the part about how the mod rolls only 7 letters and fills out the rest, if you look at my post you can see what I'm doing by adding the PR's."

– Huh? If the mod rolled a letter for every townie there would be an even higher chance for town-PRs. What you're saying here makes zero sense.

"TTT

II

PK which means 3 scum and an SK, so if we don't lynch correctly this game is over. I think this is where we are at."

– I I ?

I I ???

What the f-ck is that second I? The setup could contain any other PRs and you're talking about

I I

? – That doesn't make sense either.

Mastin, 1219 and nearby.
You're right, it's partly about your playstyle.

But

, you said that I might think it's anti-town. You also said that you have several playstyles. Need I explain how bad the situation is? You must know too that if we mislynch Today, there may be a LyLo Tomorrow. Why on Gods' Green Earth don't you choose a less anti-town playstyle?
Also, you were on both of the Davesaz and the Eyestott wagon, you were the one who pushed the Davesaz-wagon hardest. These are facts.

"with Tean as an outside possibility who may or may not be scum, but whose lynch would provide further POE on the scum."

– I don't like this. We don't have time for PoE lynches.

You said that we're "fairly synergetic players". And if I dropped my scumread on you we could work together. You might say the truth, but I strongly think that you want to fool me. Why are you telling this to me? Why not to your other townreads? To Heartless, Wicked, or maybe Beast? I wish I didn't think that you would like me to drop my scumread on you. I wish I didn't think that I could be important for you because of my scumread on Vettrock. These are the things in which I'm different from your other townreads.

BBT, 1224 –

"The majority of Copper's play strikes me as scummy but scum seem way too overpowered if we can essentially lose the game by lynching

Scum!Copper

, he shoots townie and scum and SK kill to end game for town."

– Uhh, didn't you mean town-Copper? Vengeful is a town PR in this setup.

BBT, 1226 –

"Vengeful doesn't seem a great fake-claim for scum to make."

– I don't think so. Noone dares to vote Copper now because of that claim. By the way, I saw Copper fake-claiming in another game (although they had Nightkilled me before). The scums won, we hardly had any chance.

Heartless, 1229 – explain why Vettrock is town, will you? As for Beast, you may or may not be true.

But, I absolutely dislike that you're STILL voting for Penguin, while you're talking ONLY about Beast – when there are six players on the "remaining" list.

Irrelevant, they unvoted Penguin later.

Copper, 1231 – Again, WHAT IS that I I ? And again, massclaiming would be bad!
Also, your "case" against BBT is pigeon poop. You were mis-speculating the setup a lot before and you're scumreading BBT because of a similar, but less singificant thing.

[Aneninen]

Okay. I really,

really

dislike this.
Not only because I don't remember Vettrock hinting a thing like that.
Also, because in this case you shouldn't have posted about it at all. This has been the third thing which suggests that you're trying to out the Town-PRs.

As for BBT, do you mean this?

"The majority of Copper's play strikes me as scummy but scum seem way too overpowered if we can essentially lose the game by lynching Scum!Copper, he shoots townie and scum and SK kill to end game for town."

How does it suggest that he knows you could only be Vengeful? I don't get it at all.

[Aneninen]

Alternatively, there's another possibility why you are talking about a possible Vettrock hint but I won't post about it right now.

[Aneninen]

UNVOTE:

Vettrock's claim, Heartless's post about his hints before the claim and Mastin's recent posts (especially the last one) don't fit in my reads.
Either I'll be able to explain these things too so as to go on with my previous reads – or my reads are wrong.

[Aneninen]

I've been thinking.

Let's see these posts from Copper. (They have been edited by me, for the original context check out the links.)

1181

"There are 10 of us alive, unless I see a vig claim after this post I will assume 6 are town, 3 are scum and 1 is an SK.
If we mislynch, tomorrow as a worst case we have a Lylo with 3 townies where the decider is the SK vote, this scenario is basically unwinnable for town, so I think we should massclaim today"

Corrected in 1182

"No that's a mistake, 2 scum and 1 SK, I still think we should consider mass claiming."

– he assumes without any further that there are two scums and he still suggests mass-claiming.
A couple of us has already posted that a Setup with 2 mafias is only possible if Copper's claim is fake. I would add: even if he had misread the Setup, a massclaim is a very anti-town idea. Assuming few town-PRs (alongside with 2 mafias) it wouldn't have a big "conf-town effect", but it would out the remaining PRs – making them prone targets to the scums.

1183

"I also think the Dodgy kill may be related to the scum bus driver."

– so, he hasn't read the Setup but he assumes that there is a Bus Driver. That role exists only in 0–2 Ts and 5–7 Ts setup. So, he actually DID read the wiki. He confirms it in 1208.

1187

"I don't think a unified faction kills both eyestott and dodgy, and if were in a PR rich environment it's more likely a vigilante would have claimed by now."

– THIS post will be important later.

1215

"I did not read the part about how the mod rolls only 7 letters and fills out the rest, if you look at my post you can see what I'm doing by adding the PR's."

– it's very unlikely that he haven't read the Wiki thoroughly (after all, he knows about the possible PRs, scum-PRs included), especially if he's a PR. But even if this has happened, there's something else here:

"This helps a lot in narrowing it down thought, my guess is we are either:
- TTTTIPK which means 3 scum and no SK
or
- TTTIIPK which means 3 scum and an SK, so if we don't lynch correctly this game is over. I think this is where we are at.

He

thinks

it's TTTIIPK. But, he also mentions another possibility above.
(Also, the game is NOT essentially over if we mislynch Today.)

1239

"F-ck it, I think it's pretty clear Vettrock is hinting at being 1-shot tracker and that's why he was sure of Eyestott yesterday. That is why I think we are in the PKIITTT setup."

– SO! If he thought that Vettrock was hinting 1-Shot Tracker, WHY did he speculate about 5–7 Ts before, and even if he misread the Setup on the Wiki,

WHY was he doubting a PR-right environment before?!

If his claim were real and if he had spotted the hints from Vettrock (assuming in this post that Vettrock's claim is real),

he should have known that there are at least 4 PRs in the game!

If so, he shouldn't have advocated a mass-claim at all! Unless... so as to out Vettrock for sure or check whether we're in a PR-richer setup!

Summary.

Copper is lying.

EVERYONE! If you think that my logic is wrong about him, or if you think that I'm misreading the events, post about it as soon as you can!

If I'm right, we must Lynch Copper. However, if I'm wrong and his claim is real, it's possible that I'll lose the game for us.

________

I'll post about everything else later (eg. yes, I know that I still have to revise all of my previous scumreads), but I wanted to make this post before I'd be off to work.
Also,

Vettrock

, whom did you Track? Why? What was the result? I don't think telling us these pieces of information would hurt the town.

[Aneninen]

Back.

I'm responding to Copper now.

First of all, don't take it as a personal offence, but I simply don't believe you. I think your claim is fake, therefore you're scum.
– Massclaiming would help the scums more than the town. The scums would know all the PRs and they could choose the most dangerous PR to Nightkill, turn by turn. This would be especially bad in this particular game because (1) most probably there's an SK and (2) two PRs are already dead. The only advantage for the town would be that we'd be able to confirm some players. (However, see something else about this topic below!) BUT, this would come with two serious disadvantages: (1) some scums could perform a safe-looking fake-claim (and it would be hard to decide which claims are real and which are fake) and (2) if the scums are charismatic enough, they would be able to convince the town to lynch the

real

PR.
– I'm not misrepresenting you at all. It's possible that I'm misinterpreting you and my scumread on you is wrong. So, instead of voting for you I asked everyone to discuss my reads. I've already expained: if your claim is real and I'm wrong, lynching you can be equal with performing

two

mislynchs.
– You wrote that I had been responsible for outing Vettrock. Isn't that a misrepresenting from you? It's pretty obvious that I hadn't noticed Vettrock's hints before he claimed. You could have posted something like "I think I saw a PR-hint from someone" instead of outing Vettrock.
(As for Vettrock, I still need to examine whether his claim is real or not. My intuition says it

is

, but I want to be surer.)
– Also, there's something else. If your claim is real and you assume that the setup contains 4 PRs (it's five times more probable than the 6PRs version and because having an SK in the setup is very likely), your gameplay as a townie is very bad. Let me explain: if you're really a Vengeful and if you've spotted Vettrock's hints (and if his claim is real too), it's 80% that there are NO other PRs at all. What does that mean? Most probably NO townie would claim anything. (About all these claims I'll write something else in my next post, because there's something else that suggests me that Copper is faking.)

________

Summary – and I will keep my promise

:
I repeat: we should discuss as soon as we can whether my read on Copper is correct or not. If we decide that I must be right,

then

we should start voting him and lynch him. DO NOT park your votes there before we've agreed about him! If I'm wrong, some scums could jump on his wagon and quicklynch him in the middle of the conversation!!!
However, if the majority thinks I'm wrong, I'll drop my case and I won't bring up the topic any more.

________

Apart from Copper's 1253 I haven't read the thread thoroughly since my last post. I'll write about everything else later.

[Aneninen]

Plenty of other things.

(1) Vettrock. In the Newbie I met him long ago, he was a Tracker. He crumbed his PR on Day1 and he didn't post a crumb like that here. (I mean, A crumb, Not Essentially that easy to spot, Nor with such an Inconsistent text = ANENI) Despite of this, I think his claim is real, because it seemed to have noticed not only by Copper but also by Heartless. The only scenario he'd be scum in would be possible if both Heartless and Copper were scum with him. But, in this case, Heartless needn't have posted about Vettrock's claim at all, so, this is not too likely. In theory, Vettrock could have fake-hinted a Tracker, but in this case, Copper would have waited with outing him until his wagon would be bigger.

(2) Mastin. I don't know what to think. On one hand she's answered nothing to my case that could change my read on her. On the other hand, she's spent so much time and effort on me that it wouldn't make sense at all if she were scum. I mean, if she were scum and if she had spent the same amount of resources on building up a mislynch wagon, OMGUS-ing me or whatever (instead of on a player who's not even the most influent one in this game), she would have achieved more. Of course that would have only confirmed my scumread on her – but, she could have acquired a much bigger impact on everyone elses' reads. She still can be SK (she doesn't seem to fit my scumteam idea, see below) but I'm less confident about my reads on her than I used to be.

(3) There's something I should tell. I spotted something long ago that, I think, was a PR-hint and it wasn't Vettrock – it was someone else. I'm not telling anything more about this right now and I think it's obvious, why. If I'm right about that, (1) either there are 6 PRs in the game (2) or one of the claims is fake. If the latter one is true (and it's more likely – simply maths), the fake one must be Copper.

(4) BBT. I really hate his recent posts. In 1256 he posted a naked vote for Copper. In theory, I should be glad that he was voting for my scumread – in practice, that was terrible. I thought it was obvious that I wanted to

discuss

my Copper-read before wagoning him. My first thought was that I'm wrong about Copper and BBT is a scum who wants to get rid of a town-PR without standing up and providing a case against him. But, then a couple of things happened.
His 1259: a scumread on Mastin and Heartless, but he was still voting for Copper!
Copper's 1266 was very weird:

"100%, if you end up being town you also will get a ban request from me."

– it's either over-reacting or a "fake interaction. But, if it was an over-reaction, why didn't he give a same reaction on my case? It was me, after all, who launched the case against him (even if I'm not voting right now). He answered that I'm misrepresenting him (which is not true) and I should be lynched – but I wasn't amongst his scumreads later! So, why didn't he want to ban me because of my case?
But then, in 1273, BBT votes for Mastin! What if he's just jumped off the Copper-wagon before it gets too big? And Copper joins the Mastin-wagon three posts later. (He was voting for BBT before... but the BBT-wagon wasn't moving at all at that time.)
So, it seems that I've been wrong BBT and he must be scum – and it's also possible that both him and Copper are scums!
Also, Heartless examined BBT's reads on Copper and that too confirms this read. (I must have missed it because I was focusing mostly on Vettrock and Mastin.) Especially the "it's an awesome scum fake-claim... it's a very bad fake claim" part is scummy.

So.
Could we sort out the Copper-question? He's still my strongest scumread – but, if we decide not to lynch him, we should lynch BBT, I think.

Something else.
Meanwhile, we shouldn't ingore Beast. Even if I don't understand why his flip would be informative about Copper and Mastin, KillerPenguin posted an interesting summary about him in 1282.

[Aneninen]

This will be a short answer because I need to leave soon.

Copper.
As for BBT, I see your point.
As for the massclaim. I've never suggested "auto-lynching" you, I've suggested a discussion about you, and I've done so because of your claim.
I still have a big problem with the massclaim. I haven't posted and don't post about it because if I did so, it would only help the scums. Since most of the players seem to agree with the massclaim, I'll explain my issues after it has happened. Let's hope that they haven't made a plan for this situation.

BBT. It's quite obvious that if a player does something scummy, the reads on him/her changes quickly. And it's not only me, whose reads has been changed. New pieces of information = changing reads.

[Aneninen]

Mastin, who has the popcorn now?

Did Penguin claim VT? I'm surprised because I thought that he was hinting a PR before. (Yes, I meant him in an earlier post. For reference, see eg. my 619, 1150, which were about Penguin's "things wouldn't end up well" or whatever, mentioned by eg. Tean in 530.)

The fact that Beast wanted to pass the popcorn to Copper was simply terrible.

In general, I won't say anything until the massclaim ends: we still miss a couple of claims and as I said, I don't want to give ideas to the scums.

On the other hand, we should summarize all the claims in the order of appearance, just as well the names, who were for and who were against the massclaim. I strongly think it'll be very informative later.

[Aneninen]

Copper.
In other words: I'm still here and reading the chat even if I don't say anything useful now.
Scummy or not, I don't care: I'll explain my unwillingness to reveal my thoughts as soon as the massclaim ends.

[Aneninen]

Since Wicked doesn't seem to be here and the Tean slot may be empty for a while,
I'm VT.

Popcorn to Wicked or the one who replaces into the Tean slot, whoever arrives first.

[Aneninen]

I'm off the work and I must admit that I haven't read the latest posts thoroughly. (I've found Wicked's claim, though.)

Later today I'll write a longer post. But for doing so, I must ask this: what do you all think the possibility of a PR-claim from the Tean slot is?

Also, Vettrock: have you written somewhere whom you Tracked? (If so, please, repeat it.)

[Aneninen]

So, Beast, are you MonkeyMan?!!? If so, I'll need to think about this information.

Wicked, your 1414 (about "BBT's ruining the game for town" and things like that) makes sense, I think.

BBT, 1424 –

"Copper, in 1189 you were scum-reading Heartless. Here, they are no longer in your scum-reads. How did that happen?"

– indeed, thanks for pointing it out! Also, as I said before, his vote for you was weird. If Copper flips scum (and I think he is), Heartless must be scum as well. I also liked your 1435 too.

Penguin, 1441 – you might be right about Beast. He indeed looks scummy but if he's MonkeyMan, I'll need to re-ISO him. I've met MonkeyMan a couple of times, I'm not allowed to talk about most of these games (because they're still on), but I think I have quite a useful amount of MonkeyMan meta...

________

Since the empty Tean-slot is the only one which hasn't claimed yet, and because noone considers it too likely that he might claim a PR later, the best lynch seems to be Copper. I don't think Vettrock is scum, BBT's latest posts might have come from a town-mindset. If Copper's a Vengeful (though I doubt it), he can shoot BBT. (I think eg. Vettrock said the same as the safest tactic in 1402.)

VOTE: Copper

________

[Aneninen]

Am I a retard? Let's see.

@Killa
No, lynching in the PR pool unless someone else claims is by far the best move.

Should I end the day?

Maybe Aneninen is SK.

Oh, really?

According to the first quote my vote is logical. (By the way, if you were town, you wouldn't worry about my vote – accoding to your interaction you'd take BBT with you, since one of you two must be scum.) Also, my vote was not a hammer, I didn't end the Day.
The second quote is very scummy, especially since you wrote this in 1425:

"@Heartless Vote me pls."

(Yet another thing which points towards a Copper/Heartless scumteam. The third one has to be the Tean-slot and I have a damn good reason for thinking so.)
But, the third one, I think that one was a slip. Maybe I'm SK?!!

SK?????

Soooooo, it seems that you

KNOW

that I'm not a Mafia becuase

you know who your partners are!!!

COPPER IS SCUM.

(And for your information: I'm not the SK.)

[Aneninen]

hammering before a Tean replacement is a scum claim

Thanks, Heartless, you've just made a huge mistake. (Mind the context of that post!)

The Mafia Team are: Copper, Heartless and Tean. I'm explaining everything in my next post. Including the fact: why the massclaim was a terrible idea.

[Aneninen]

Okay, everyone!
Here's the story.

(1) The Mafia

had known

the zone of the Setup (5–7 Ts, 3–4 Ts or 0–2 Ts)

before the game started

.

(2) On Day1 Copper fake-claimed. They must have made their plan after this fake-claim, at Night1. (I think it happened then, but they might have created it pre-game too.)

(3) On Day2, we saw that there were two kills. Since noone claimed a Vig-shot, it became clear that there's an SK. But,

by that point, the Mafia knew CLEARLY what the Setup really was!

(4) Soon it got clear that the Setup is either TTT or T (4 PRs or 6 PRs) – but, as I said, the Mafia knew which one of them! I was against the massclaim all the time, because I saw how beneficial it to the Mafia-team could be.
Let's stop here for a second. Originally, I thought the massclaim will result a WIFOM. If it's T and all the claims are real, all the Mafia must be amongst the VTs. But,

TTT is FIVE times more likely than T!

(TTT has a chance of 35/128, while T is only 7/128.)
Why is it a WIFOM? Because, if there are six claims, mathematically it's about 16.67% that all of the claims are real and about 83.33% that two of them are fake. Of course, after six claims what would have the town think? This: the Setup is T and all the scums are amongst the VT-claims, even if there's only a 16.67% chance for it. Ignoring the possibility of

having EXACTLY TWO fake-claims!

(5) Therefore,

the Mafia planned TWO fake-claims

(and the Setup is TTT). One of these is Copper. The other fake-claim should have been Tean – but, he's not here! (That has been the single error in their plan.) Had he claimed, the situation written in (4) would have occoured.
But, suddenly the town got stuck in a situation which is unpleasant for them: there are five claims, so, it's clear that one of them is fake! Is it Copper? Or BBT? What did the Mafia think?

"If the town lynched BBT, it would be bad for Copper... but, it's still better than a Copper-lynch which not only hurts us but also clears BBT. Unless... we prolong the Day until the Tean-slot gets filled and everything can go on according to the original plan."

(6)

So. Copper is scum and he fake-claimed.

The Tean-slot is the second scum.

(I wouldn't surprised if the replacement instantly claimed a PR.)

Heartless must be the third one

, mostly because of some interactive tells (pointed out by eg. BBT), also eg. the

"Heartless vote for me"

sentence from Copper (Copper's reasoning in 1454 about the topic is pigeon poop.) But, their post:

"hammering before a Tean replacement is a scum claim"

made that very likely. (Check out the context. NOONE was about to hammer Copper at that time. I also asked everyone about the possibilities of a Tean-PR-claim in 1418 and noone has f-cking answered!)
I must admit, I have no idea why Heartless didn't claim a PR. Maybe Tean is the Mafia JOAT and he needs to be protected...?

As for the SK, I have no idea. One thing is clear: the SK is among the VT-claims. It's most probably Beast (but as I said, I'll re-ISO him) or (less likely?) Mastin. If BBT's town, Penguin is town too. (And I've been townreading Penguin for a long time, regardless of BBT.) If Wicked is the SK, then simply f-ck off.

[Aneninen]

Also,
who kept saying that we should massclaim? Copper!
Who wanted to out other PRs after EyeStott's claim on Day1? Copper!

And yes, you know, I've already lost some LyLos because noone was listnening to me. However, I even won some games before LyLo when the town actually listented to me.

If it hadn't been to the absense of Tean, your plan would have worked... until LyLo (when I could have found it out and gotten lynched because noone would have believed me).

[Aneninen]

I've read the posts but I don't have time to answer them. There are interesting things that are worth responding to.
Also, I'll examine other possibilities in case of my theory is wrong.

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

@Aneninen
Have fun reading that after I flip.

At least it means you are likely town, not that that helps much, I will scumread you on purpose from now on.

If my teammate the Tean slot fake claims, lynch him tomorrow.¹@Killa
I already claimed, Vettrock already softed (at least 3 players saw it) so

if he is real he was already dead, you fishing for his role together with genius Aneninen ensured his death if anything

, BBT is fake claiming.²

(1) How does that make sense? You think that I'm town but you're scumreading me because of ...?
(2) Okay, I believe that some players got his hints. But still, you should have waited until he claims, instead of outing him. I don't understand the highlighted part at all.

As for Beast–MonkeyMan, in general. Because of the site rules I'm not explaining my reads but I can tell this: it's very unlikely that he's Mafia, according to my knowledge his Mafia-play is entirely different. However, it's possible that he's the SK. His gameplay is similar to the town-Monkey–Beast I saw before... but, not identical. I can't explain this difference but it's there.

Copper, 1416/1492 –

"I want a poll from each of you about who I should shoot, between the PR's and someone else if you think it would be better (if so add why)."

That idea is very bad and I don't think it could have come from a town mindset.
But, okay, let's assume for a second that you're a Vengeful. If your Vengekill is discussed and you're about to kill a Townie, at least one of the scums will jump on your wagon and you'll end up hammered, killing a Townie and eventually, the game is most probably lost.

Heartless, 1497 – what you're saying about Copper might be true... but it has come from the wrong slot.

"I would have to think copper's teammates would be making their move on BBT or vettrock."

– it

look

good, but your vote is on BBT, and the Tean-slot is empty. What if this post has been a blatant hard-defense?
As for 1501 – can you point out where Vettrock made it obvious (via his hints) that he's a 1-Shot?

Vettrock, 1502 – I know that I'm talking against my Copper-case now, but you're wrong. Lynching Copper is

much more

risky than BBT. (That'swhy I had been hesitant for a long time to vote for Copper before I did so.) If Copper's scum – which I think the case is –, hurray, and you're right, BBT might be able to confirm another townie Tonight. But if Copper's town, everything can be lost if he Vengekills a townie. If we mislynch BBT, we lose a powerful PR indeed, but our chances are better later.

Heartless, 1507 – Whut? Are you telling that the scumteam consists of Mastin, Wicked and Vettrock?! WTFLMAO!

________

Also, I'm going to summarize my thoughts about all the "possible scenarios". I also know that even if I'm confident about my theory posted in 1468, I'll lose the game for the town if I'm wrong.

[Aneninen]

Copper. Wait for my next post. You might find it informative.

[Aneninen]

So, here are the possible scenarios I can see. Feel free to post more if I've left out some things and correct my thoughts if I've made some mistakes.

(1) My original theory (posted in 1468): the mafia-team is Copper–Tean–Heartless and the SK may be Beast (or Mastin?). See that in the linked post. Keep in mind that this is possible regardless of the Tean-slot's forthcoming claim.

In all of my following points I'll assume that this theory is

wrong

.

(2) Tean claims VT and he's telling the truth. In this case, exactly one of the PR-claims is fake. According to my reads, the most probable fake is Copper, the least probable is Vettrock. The best gameplay seems to be this: lynching Copper and he Vengekills BBT. This won't work if Vettrock is scum.

Overall possibility: it's possible

(I must admit.)

(3) The situation is the same as (1), but vice versa: the scumteam is BBT–Tean–??? (regardless of Tean's claim). In this case BBT would be a better lynch than Copper. Question: who's the third Mafia in this case? According to BBT's gameplay, I can't see a clear answer.

Overall possibility: not impossible

– but I find Copper scummier than BBT.

(4) Tean claims VT, all of the claims are real. According to the setup it has very little chance. Also, this would mean that Heartless, Wicked, Mastin and Beast are scum. (BBT's Hiding clears Penguin.) I've never met Wicked before, but if all of the other three players were scum, they would have ended this Day by now, most preferably before Tean's claim. Right now we can find these four players on four different wagons. In this case, our best gameplay would be lynching Beast or Heartless.

Overall possibility: almost impossible

(5) Both Copper and BBT are scum. This possible only if Tean claims a PR. In this case it'll be very hard to catch them both, lynching BOTH of them (one of them Today, the next one Tomorrow) would be very risky. A couple of days ago I thought their interaction with each other were fake but now I think that it's a "genuine" fight, not a "scum-vs-scum" faking. In this case BBT would be a better lynch, I think. But how to catch Copper if BBT flips scum...? Who else is scum in this case? I really, really hope that this point is not true.

Overall possibility: not too likely

(6) Vettrock and either Copper or BBT is faking. Frankly, I have no idea what to do in this case. Maybe we should talk about this after a scum-flip. Vettrock might have planned his hints and his fake-claim on Day1... but if he indeed hinted 1-shot, that would have been a very risky thing to do. (What if there were a real 1-shot Tracker?)

Overall possibility: almost impossible

– but, might be more possible if Vettrock never hinted 1-shot

(7) The Tean-slot claims VT and the SK is faking a PR. / The Tean-slot claims PR and one Mafia and the SK is faking a PR. I doubt these, if Copper or BBT were the SK, they would have been lynched by now since there would be no buddies around to defend him (either by direct defense, or by pushing another wagon). So, in this case Vettrock might be the SK... but, I don't think this point is likely at all.

Overall possibility: almost impossible

(8) Copper is faking as town and he's a Vigilante. I'd hate this. Personally, I don't think it would have been a good idea from Copper but it's possible that he wanted to help the town and it went very wrong. In this case, there's no SK and Tean must claim a PR.

Overall possibility: ???

– Copper, this is your last chance to admit this! If you do so, I'll unvote you.

(9) "Lying Townies". I'd include everything that involves a faking townie, eg. claiming a PR as VT or vice versa. There's nothing we can do if this is the case, I think.

Overall possibility: impossible

(...or at least I hope so.)

________

So, I'm open to all suggestions and corrections.

[Aneninen]

I don't understand your latest post, Copper.

I'll answer your previous one soon.

[Aneninen]

STOP THAT

I'm posting something.

[Aneninen]

OFF

Copper.

You must have read my previous long post.
Yes, I admit that I'm paranoid. It's only Day2 and the game is could be lost automatically if we don't lynch scum Today.
I'm also upset. In the C9++ game (mentioned a couple of times) I was scum and I thought that the game was highly unbalanced and the Setup favoured the Town. I joined J9++ (which is similar) because I thought "lol, I'll be probably town and it'll be an easy win". And now I think that this one is unbalanced too, but in the opposite direction.

I'm voting you because I think that's the best mathematical chance for winning. Not only because of my theory, also in the (2) and (5) scenario it seems to be a good move. I know that it's bad in (3) and (4), not the best move in (6).
And I'm not alone in this town, if others proove me that I'm wrong, I'll reconsider everything

yet again

.

Yes, it's possible that I'm misreading everything. But, that doesn't mean that I'm an idiot who needs to be policy-lynched in every forthcoming games.
In Hope Plus One your team won easily and we played very badly. Did I whine about it? No. Your team was even nominated for the award.

Take this: there was a player called Reinoe, I met him in my second game on this page. I and another player scumread him and suddenly he started raging at us and left the game. (BBT, do you remember? You were there!)
After that he WotC-ed me out of a game and tried to do the same in a game I signed in

before

him! I even PMed him a couple of times but he didn't even answer.
Don't be a Reinoe, pretty please!
(I'm telling this along with the name because later he got site-banned because of other reasons.)

Also,
and this goes for BBT too,

this is a game.

I know that we're all nervous but you shouldn't get involved in personal fights.
So, please, stop it!
We're here to play and to have fun. I can see and get involved in fights like that in my RL too (...and there were quite a couple of situations when I got "lynched" – something equivalent with that, eg. getting kicked out of a project after years of hard work – just because of VERY SMALL things, or because the others, even some whom I used to call my "best friends", were technically scum IRL.)

If I'm THAT annoying, I'll replace out. (I never-ever do so normally, because in my opinion everyone should face their own music, but in this case, my replacement would find him/herself in a decent-townie slot.)

That's all. Thanks for reading this.

ON

Everyone else: sorry for off-ing!

[Aneninen]

First of all, we're at a massclaim, Titus. We only need the claim from your slot. (No kidding, anyone can confirm this.)

Copper, if you're reading this: I didn't want to upset you. (I know that it wasn't me you fought with but I think it was me who "started the fire".)

[Aneninen]

Maybe, Heartless, maybe not. Read what I posted in my "off".

Titus. I'll write a summary as soon as I have time (I'm cleaning up the flat meanwhile) and if you accept it from me. (My slot is mostly townread. Other townread slots are KillaPenguin, Wicked and maybe Vettrock – the latter one is under constant discussion.)

________

post-edit.

...WHAAAAAAAAT?????!!!!!

UNVOTE:

I need to reconsider everything.
No, BBT. I can't explain it. But I need to go on with the cleaning-up.

[Aneninen]

Okay, let's start it over. Unfortunately, my 1468 and 1524 are to be ignored.

Still, we need a theory about the setup, so let's use Ockham's Razor and let's assume that the version which needs the least pieces os assumption is correct (until there are contradicting incoming data).

Facts.

(1) The possible setups are:

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)
TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

(2) Because of the Setup the Mafia team knew pregame whether there are 5–7 Ts, 3–4 Ts or 0–2 Ts. (Check out the scum-PRs.)

(3) The known flips are: I, P (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K, K
There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities

(1) TTTTTTT and TTTTTT are

impossible

because of the flips.

(2) TTTTT is also

impossible

. For that, there would be two Mafia and a SK. If all of them had been faking that would be only 3 claims and we have 4. We should rule out the possibility of a VT faking a PR.

(3) TTTT is

possible

but

only if

three claims are fake. Since there's no SK in this setup, Titus's claim must be real. So, TTTT is possible only if BBT, Copper and Vettrock are lying. The possibility of this Setup is 27.3%.
Though it contains too much assumptions, 3 fake-claims,

we can't ignore this case entirely because of its realtively high possibility

. (Note the following too: a triple fake-claim could be useful for the Mafia team since it's not too likely that the town would ever think

that

amount of fake-claims.)

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is

possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK

and

one of the other claims is fake too (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled (see below!)

and

two of the other claims are fake (two scums amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock, either Mafia or SK)
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled

and

one of the other claims is fake too (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock, either Mafia or SK)
Summary: for TTT we must assume a missing kill, an SK and two fake claims. In theory, there are a lot of assumptions in these cases, but because of the high amount of the possibilities and because of the high probability of the setup itself,

we mustn't ignore this case

.

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is

possible if

Titus's claim is real

and

one of the other claims is fake (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock). Of course there's no SK in this Setup. Note that this Setup is not possible if Titus is faking because in that case there couldn't have been a second Nightkill.

This seems to be the most probable case

, it's probability (16.4%) is acceptable as well.

(6) T (the probability of this Setup is 5.5%) is

possible

if all the claims are real

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled.
Here we need only two assumptions, but because the probability of this setup is very low,

we shouldn't think that this is the case, although we mustn't ignore it completely

.

(7) 0T is

impossible

in practice. The chance would be 0.8% and we should assume a town-PR claiming VT.

There's something more for (5): it's very likely that

one

scum is faking a PR. It's not entirely impossible that

two

of them are faking (case (4), and two fake-claims seem to be beneficial as well). It'd be odd if every Mafia were faking (although it might be beneficial, but maybe risky as well?) and in this situation it would also be odd if none of them were faking (it had been clear for a while that a massclaim was coming; they should have divided themselves between the PR and the VT-pool).

The possible cases of a missing Nightkill:
– Doubling (two kills went for the same slot, maybe on EyeStott, since that seems to have been a "logical kill")
– Jailkeeping (unfortunately we have no information about the target)
– one of the shots went for BBT (assuming his claim is real)
– the Mafia targetted the SK who's Bulletproof (assuming there's an SK, in this case the Mafia knows who the SK is)

_______

Summary. Until we know more facts,

we should think that the setup is IPK??TT

; 3 Mafia, exactly one of the claims is fake (any of them but Titus!), no SK, because we need to make the least amount of assumptions for this version.
We mustn't lynch Titus Today, regardless of our reads on that slot.

Notice: it's taken some time for me to write this post so I haven't read the thread meanwhile.

[Aneninen]

Why is 5 the most probable case when 4 has a higher statisicsl chance?

Ockham's Razor. I had to assume much less things for that Setup.

Heartless: shyt, I totally ignored the scum-PRs. Do you think that changes the possibilities?

[Aneninen]

And yes, I'm reading the game soon as soon as I've finished the laundry.

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

Titus, 1573 – check my later long post for answers! 1576 – that's true. I don't think Penguin is scum anyway.
1580 – shooting Dodgy was a terrible idea... although, as far as I remember, I also thought that he might be scum, because of his fight with Eyestott (who claimed on Day1). Sorry if my memories are wrong, that happened so long ago. Also, Copper was scumreading BBT (due to the "I'm not faking so he must be faking" logic) and later me (? – I'm unsure whether he really meant it. He was upset because he was my main suspect and I voted for him. I had posted a lot about Copper and his possible scum partners before you claimed. Now my former theory doesn't seem to be too probable.)

Beast, 1596 – your ideas are wrong. Vettrock's claim seems to be real, although someone still should point out where he claimed 1-shot. (If it turns out there have been no 1-shot claim, I'll be confident about this read.) We shouldn't talk about BBT's forthcoming Night Action at all (if his claim is real). That would only give ideas to the scums whether he's worth lynching/Nightkilling or not.

Heartless, 1599 –

"Should we mislynch today, Titus should not shoot tonight because if she misfires it's a possible scum win. This holds true regardless of if she's an SK or vig."

– this is true, unless someone does something blatantly scummy (or someone seems to be obv-scum after the mislynch, eg. a derphammer).

Heartless, Beast, etc. – have you read my 1606? It's likely that we don't have an SK at all!

Beast 1614, No Lynch is bad, in my opinion. We should thy to lynch a scum instead of waiting for them for shooting each other (which won't work if there's no SK) or for Titus guessing a scum correctly (and what if they simply Nightkill Titus?!) As for your 1620 and nearby: who's the bus-driver of your team then?

BBT, 1633 – ugh, was that a crumb? Because using a single word doesn't seem to be a claim for me. Your claim may or may not be real but it's clear that you have no idea how to crumb.
Everyone: do you have any experience about BBT having a town-PR in another game?

Vettrock, 1637 – you should read my 1606 too (if you haven't done so yet). What's your opinion?

Titus, 1646 –

"Can I shoot if one of Cooper/BBT is scum?"

I haven't done the math but I think you should. Maybe you could decide whom to shoot after the flip (so keep your choice in secret.)

Also, everyone, remember: until the Copper-slot is filled we shouldn't lynch anyone.

________

Summary.
I'm trying to re-read everything because it seems that my former theories were flawed.

Right now I know that there players mustn't get lynched Today:

KillaPenguin – he's town according to my reads and if BBT's claim is true, he's conf-town.
Titus – according to my 1606 that would be a terrible move. Also, his posts don't seem to be scummy.
Wicked – I can see nothing scummy here.

So, maybe I should re-start everything with this: either BBT or Copper is to be lynched. According to most of the possible scenarios, one of them is lying.
But what if Vettrock's scum? In theory, if we lynched Copper, he Vengekilled BBT and both flipped town, Titus could still Vig-kill Vettrock... but in this case we'd lose 2 townies, 1 scum and the scum kills another town and that's 6:2 for Tomorrow. Assuming there's no SK. Assuming it's not a T-setup. I think this plan is too risky and it contains too many "if"-s.

Also, Wicked and Mastin has posted nothing since Copper left and Titus arrived. I want to see some posts from them as well.

[Aneninen]

Meanwhile,

if I have time today, I'll start re-considering all of my previous reads. There've been so many things here recently that it's hard for me to remember the things happened before.

[Aneninen]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

[Aneninen]

I'll post a summary about everyone else too, but obviously, Copper's slot had the priority.

[Aneninen]

Vettrock, your 1672 makes sense. I also pointed out some of those things before. (Eg. in 1606).
Some remarks.
(1) (*) In theory, a TTTT Setup is possible if each of Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying.
(2) If it's TT, Titus is a Vigilante and there's no SK. One of Copper, BBT and Vettrock is lying. According to Ockham's Razor, this is the most probable version (we need to make the least assumptions for this)
(3) It's not impossible that two of these players: Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying. So, even if Copper is scum it's not confirmed that BBT and Vettrock are town. (The Copper–BBT scumpair is not too likely, see below.)
(4) (*) If it's T, all of the scums must be amongst the VT-claims: Heartless, Mastin, Wicked, Beast, Aneninen. (In this case, Penguin is town because of BBT's hiding. I know that I'm not scum. In this scenario there's an SK too, so all the other names are scums.)
(5) (*) The Bus-Driver can mix up the Nightkills.
(6) (*) If Titus is SK, it's absolutely not sure that he may shoot you.

The points marked with (*) should be ignored, I think.
(1) is very unlikely and if it's true, the game is most probably lost. But, testing it later (after one or two of those names flipping scum) would be a bad gameplay. Titus's Vig kills in that case could help a lot, though. (4) is unlikely too, but if Copper, BBT and Vettrock are all out (and they all flip town), we still have a chance to win if there are missing kills or crosskils (the SK shoots Mafia and/or Vice versa). (5) can hurt us a lot, but with multiple kills (especially if there's an SK) a Bus-Driving can go wrong for the scums too. And yes, it's possible that the Bus-Driver used his PR at Night1. (6) is also possible, but even if Copper and/or BBT flips town and the SK shoots someone else (hoping that you'll lynched Tomorrow), he/she can still shoot a scum (or another scum).

TL;DR: In general, your thoughts are correct if we include (2) and (3).

________

Wicked, your 1679 was very dumb. First of all, you just picked a small part out of a long post where I tried to summarize ALL of the possibilities. I simply included that point amongst others. Also, even I admitted later that my ideas there had been wrong. Plus, I mentioned "unvote", not "townreading him". I don't think if he had changed his fake-claim to another fake-claim, that would have saved him later. And finally, he refused even my assumption that he'd ever fake-claim as a townie.

Wicked, 1682 –

"If he was scum feigning frustration with BBT, why would he violate the 'no public hatred' rule thus risking (and eventually leading to) his ejection?"

– I know it's a bit like "outguessing the mod" but I think that Copper/BBT fight was a scum-vs-town fight because Copper got force-replaced and BBT got warned. If both of them were scum or town, I don't think they would have gotten a different treatment. (Or it's also possible that Copper was much ruder? I'm a bit insensitive to flame-wars, I've seen much worse things before, ending up with violating ...much serious things.)
As for your Beast-reads, I'll re-examine him later. But it's obvious that I'll post about BBT and Vettrock next.

[Aneninen]

Examining BBT.

It took some time for me to crystallize my reads on him, but before the massclaims and the mid-Day2 events I had a townread on him.

Around 1226 he started to make posts I didn't like and the first "round" of fight between he and Copper seemed to be somewhat faked. I also disliked that he jumped on the Copper-wagon with a naked vote in 1256 (right after Mastin) – partly because I said that we should

discuss

about Copper, not to wagon him! Also, I don't like that he still wants to lynch the Copper-slot, regardless of its emptiness (eg. 1670).
As for his fight with Copper... I don't know. As I said in my previous post I found it strange that one of them was sent away while the other one was only warned, and even if I know that it's bad speculation my mind can't rule it out. In short: one of them was faking while the other one was raging – but, which one was which? Therefore, I don't think both of them are scum.

To tell the truth, that's all I can bring up against BBT. He seems to be much less scummy as Copper.
Vettrock, I don't know why you think that lynching BBT is riskier, in my opinion it's much safer than a Copper-lynch. If BBT's scum, bingo! In addition, in that case Copper is probably town and it's good to have a Vengeful around in late-game. If he's town, we'll lose a townie by lynching him, but we gain a confirmed townie: Penguin. (And Copper is most probably scum who can get shot at Night2.) It's sure that by Hiding he could confirmed another townie (if we lynch Copper, he's not scum and he Venge-kills someone else – thin chance for this sequence of events). But, will he choose his target wrong and he's dead – and we DEFINITELY don't need a "bonus" dead townie!

[Aneninen]

Badpost i leftout things.
Corrections via mobile.
If we lynch copper and he is scum bbt can try to conf a townie. The rest is there.
After a scum bbt flip coppergets prob killed at night. No real avdantage there.
Sorry i was in a hurry.

[Aneninen]

Shyt ninjaed by vettrock. The previous went for my ownpost.

[Aneninen]

Wait-oh. Are you talking about lynching the Copper-slot while it's empty?
Also, what are you expecting by doing this? The replacement arrives so as to get informed that... "we decided to lynch you, if you're town, Vengkill BBT"??? Would YOU replace into a slot like this?

(I'm going on with my posts soon, Vettrock is coming.)

[Aneninen]

Let's post about Vettrock.

My original case was about his posts around 1198. That vote for Mastin was terrible and as far as I remember it felt like that he had been sheeping my Mastin-case.
The main problem my former case now is that I assumed a Copper/Vettrock team there. Well, that

is

a possibility but only

one

possibility – and it leads us back to Copper.
As for his PR-hints: there's NOTHING there about being a 1-shot. (According to the Setup, claiming a 1-shot is much riskier than a Full Tracker, because the 1-shot can be counter-claimed easily.)

However, Vettrock was against the massclaim which is a towntell for me. Also his recent posts are town-ish.

I don't really understand why we all townread Vettrock. Maybe because at that point his claim indeed seemed to be genuine, especially since he was eventually forced to claim (by Copper). So, it's possible that he's scum if one of the PR-claims is fake – and if two of them are fake, both Vettrock and Copper may be scum. (I don't think Vettrock and BBT are scums together. Titus has a free pass Today, so we can still examine the possibility of a Titus/Vettrock team Tomorrow in case of no scumflip 'till then.)

In short, Vettrock is a ??? now. If we lynched him and he flipped scum I'd say, Copper is scum too and BBT is most probably town. If he flipped town, we'd "only" lose a 1-shot Tracker (which might be not as bad as losing a Hider or a Vengeful...?)


So far, still Copper seems to be the scummiest, therefore the best lynch. Maybe I'm overrating the risk of it.
However, I'd never lynch his slot as long as it's empty.

________

I'll examine others as well. But not today. I'm too tired to think now. (If there are errors in my post, please, point them out.)

[Aneninen]

I've already had my position.
He's the scummiest. Not only because of the "at least one of the claims is fake" thing but also scummy in itself. (Check my post about him.)
If he's town (which I don't believe), BBT seems to be the best Vengekill, but having re-examined all three of them, I think we should consider Vettrock too. BUT, since I strongly dislike that BBT wants to lynch the empty Copper-slot, I'm more for the BBT-Vengekill now.

But I'd never lynch an empty slot and I don't think it's a good idea to vote about the fate of his slot at all. Who on Gods' Green Earth would replace into a slot like that?


By the way, have I read it right? Are you a Mollie-alt?

[Aneninen]

Wicked, 1708 – so, do you think that I wanted to save Copper's Day because I mentioned

one

possibility amongst many others, when I summarized all of the possibilities that came into my mind? Do you think that

one

single thing is more important than all of my posts about scumreading Copper?
I know it's off but why do you think that Copper had to be replaced (without a warning)?

Wicked, 1710 – your logic is perfect... IF Vettrock is town. But that doesn't proove that Vettrock is not scum.

Your reaction test on Teapot is another towntell on you, anyway.

________

Teapot, hi there!
I'm reading your posts but I won't express my opinion until your catchup has been finished. I have a very good reason for doing so: your slot is my main scumread. You'll find a little summary about Copper in 1672.
Also: Either will you find everything about the current situation during your catchup, or you have already known the most important things. (Whether you're scum or not.)

[Aneninen]

Let's see the other players.

Mastin.

I scumread him on early-Day2 (before that I had been unable to get a strong read on her.)
My reasons were (1) being on both the Davesaz and the Eyestott wagon (2) her push had a very strong impact: lynching Davesaz (3) changing her reads very quickly (4) a gamestyle like that could be a perfect excuse on jumping on any emerging wagon and (5) if he has many gamestyles, why hasn't she chosen a more suitable one?
Later I dropped my read. Partly because of the sheer amount of effort she made to convince me – if she were scum she could have opened a new "battlefront" or join an existing one instead of getting involved in a long wallpost-interaction with me.
She joined the Copper-wagon in 1255, posted that the BBT-Copper interactions are scum-scum (about 1278), were against the massclaim (1315), got back to townreading BBT (1360 – as far as I can see she never voted for BBT), and after that... either she flew under the radar or I find her posts null-s (still scumreading Copper meanwhile). Returned with an SK-read on Titus and insta-scumreading Copper's replacement. (The latter is a thing I call "Regardless of Card" – scumreading someone regardless of their content. It's not always a scumtell but surely a thing I don't like.)

Summary. Having read that part of the game again, I still know why I scumread her and why I dropped my read. But, since then she's done nothing which has given me town-vibes. If BBT's Mafia, I can imagine her as his partner. A Vettrock-Mastin pair is less likely (unless they made up the plan about all the fake-claim, interactions etc. at Night1, maybe). I don't think she could be scum with Copper – she could have moved on easily to another scumread but that has never happened. Generally said, it seems that she's reading the game in a similar way as I do which is a towntell. If there's an SK at all, she might be the one.
I wouldn't say she's town, but I don't think she'd be a good lynch Today. In other words: she's not a priority now.

(Note to self. At this point I realized that I've been reading the whole game if a "Copper is scum"-biased way for a while. Even if I'm examining someone else I lead back to my reads to Copper (unintentionally, though). I strongly hope that Copper is scum because if not, most of my reads will turn into pigeon poop.)

________

Beast (MonkeyMan)

This seems to be an easy one.
I've already seen his scumplay (according to the site rules I'm not allowed to talk about it) and it's entirely different. Basicly: his Mafia-play is more consistent. On the other hand, his gameplay here is not

entirely

the same as his townplay. It happens too many times that his posts give me the feeling as if he didn't read the game at all. Also, his theoretical posts after 1600+ or so are very bad.
I don't think he's Mafia and one more thing strengthens this read: as far as I can see noone has a sure and constant townread on him. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) However, if there's an SK, he could be the one. (More likely than SK.)

Since I think it's more likely that there's no SK, I don't think he'd be a good lynch Today.

________

Heartless.

The fact that they're thinking that Copper's town and they're pushing the BBT-wagon tells me that if Copper's scum, Heartless are very likely scum too. I also noticed a change in their posting style and frequency after Titus's arrival. What if my first idea about the Copper–Heartless–Titus team has been real...?
But, his recent post are seem to be much more town-ish than their many of their earlier posts. Also, they pointed out quite a couple of things about BBT which made me think (Eg. 1286).

So, if Copper's scum they'll become my strongest scumread. On the other hand, it's not too likely that they're scum with BBT (Vettrock could be a possible partner.) And, as I said before they're not the SK (if there's one).

________

Titus.

I won't waste my time on her Today. It's proven that she could be scum only if

one

of the other PR-claims is fake.

________

Wicked.

I can't see how those post could have come from a scum-mindset. His reaction test on Teapot has strengthened my read. (I don't understand his problems with that outdated post from me, though. But that might mean mere paranoia from him, I suppose.)

________

Penguin.

Unless BBT flips scum I'll consider him as an obv-town. Not because BBT's targetting but also because he's done nothing scummy at all.

[Aneninen]

...(Note to self. At this point I realized that I've been reading the whole game if a "Copper is scum"-biased way for a while. Even if I'm examining someone else I lead back to my reads to Copper (unintentionally, though). I strongly hope that Copper is scum because if not, most of my reads will turn into pigeon poop.)...

So, most of my reads has just turned into pigeon poop.

Do I have time to get my reads knowing that Copper–Teapot was town? Because, it seems to be logical that BBT must be scum, but what if Vettrock is lying?
I also want to check the reactions which were given to the Mod error.

[Aneninen]

This'll be about the recent events. We're getting closer and closer to the Deadline and I'm not sure whether I'll have time to reconstruct all of my older reads fitting the Copper-flip in.

So, I'll focus on the facts: how certain players reacted to the Mod-slip and what has happened since then?
I assume that everyone was and is aware of the fact: although it was the

most likely

possibility that either Copper or BBT is lying, that was not the

only

possibility. Plenty of us had been posting a lot about the topic before Copper got confirmed.

Spoiler:

Heartless's 1773 is null.

Beast's 1774 is not. Even if he said

"doesn't fell right"

it felt as if he wanted/wants an insta-BBT lynch instead of examining the situation.

Wicked, if you don't mind I'll ignore your 1776, that was mostly about Copper and it's irrelevant now. His 1779 might have come from a town-mindset but it's easy to fake a post like that. Null.

Mastin's 1781 is very scummy. Especially since this vote had come

before

the Mod resolution. There were many things in this post (and in her next posts too), I only point out this:

"If copper's not scum, who can be?"

– we had posted A LOT about all the possibilities before the Mod-slip! What sort of question was that?!

BBT, 1784 – THIS. Because of THIS post I don't auto-assume that BBT's scum. If I'm right about his personality (ingame and IRL too) if he were scum he'd have started raging something like "it's unfair, f-ck Mod" – or he wouldn't have posted at all.
Therefore,

I'm considering BBT as the lowest-hanging fruit of MafiaScum EVER

and every single vote given to him will be thoroughly examined.

Titus, 1790 – the first post after the Mod resolution. Townish; she tries to examine the possibilities instead of auto-voting BBT.

Heartless, 1791 – it looks scummier than it is, I suppose. Firstly, they could have insta-voted BBT after the Mod-slip (that would have been very FoS, though). Secondly, they had been scumreading BBT before the Copper-slip happened. So, in itself this vote is a null.

Beast, 1795 – this vote overdrives my scum-o-meter.

"Regardless of opinion this is what cooper would have wanted and thus I am not voting anyone else. I am pretending like this is the vengeful shot."

– Why should we automatically follow a "might have happened Vengeful-shot"? Also, consider this: he had never voted for BBT on Day2 before this post!!!

Titus, 1797 – I think that's mere speculation. We should be sure whether there's an SK at all before starting to guess was he/she jailed at Night1 or not.

BBT, 1800 – I'm not sure about this. Vettrock wasn't mentioned in the post at all! (Is it still possible that both Vettrock and BBT are scum? I'll need to examine that.)

Vettrock, 1801 – Another scummy vote. For the same reason as Mastin's one.

Titus, 1803 –

"BBT is at L minus 1. I do not like the speed of this wagon."

– Neither do I!!! In theory, it's possible that Titus is scum (again, I should re-examine my older posts), but I simply don't think so.

Beast, 1807 – Pigeon poop.

"I am voting based on what would have been the vengeful kill since we were so obviously going to be voting copper yesterday."

– had it come from a townie it would have been against the WinCon. (Intentionally not trying to scumhunt at all.)

"My reads have all been spelled out earlier though and BBT was part of the scum list with copper."

– yes, I remember that now, you're right. But,

"Also, I have a surefire LYLO strategy so town will win if I am alive at LYLO."

– why are you THAT sure that there'll be a LyLo? It's far not essentially a LyLo if we lynch scum Today.

Heartless, 1814 –

If BBT really is town then from his perspective, vettrock should be almost a sure thing and it's undoubtedly where his vote would go if he was playing towards a town win condition. But it's not, so he's not and he's avoiding voting off other PR claims because it would leave less reasonable doubt of his lies."

– Uhhh... wait-oh. So, if BBT's town and he knows he's town, he should know that it's very likely that Vettrock's scum, based upon the Setup math. Did you want to explain this?
I'll need to think about it. If this is right, either BBT's scum or he didn't examined the probablilities. He admitted the latter one later. (To tell the truth, I haven't examined the Math thoroughly as well, since the Copper-flip.)

Heartless, 1818

"no one bit on the Anen vote so you left that read in a ditch"

(that was about BBT) – am I misremembering something? I thought that he had dropped his case against me ages ago... Lol, BBT answered the same a couple of posts later.

Vettrock, 1824 – yes, yes, it seems to be valid... except for one tiny bit. There's NO evidence that Vettrock's town! The Setup speculation seems to be right but somehow I feel that Vettrock took advantage of the situation that BBT doesn't do Setup speculation and posted this before him.
Everyone! Keep in mind that if we change the names "BBT" and "Vettrock" in this post, it will be still true and valid!

By the way, the possibility of a T Setup (all claims are true) is bigger than it was before the Copper-flip because we know that his claim was real. However, it makes no sense that Vettrock thinks it's still about 5%, unless... yet again, is there a possibility for a BBT/Vettrock team?

– not relevant, there was a conversation about it later.

Wicked, 1825 – it

looks

like a townpost but I STILL don't understand why Vettrock is left out of the possibilities!

BBT, 1831 – what was that vote?! Werent Heartless and Mastin your strongest scumreads?

Summary.
If I compare BBT's and Vettrock's post-Copper gameplay, Vettrock is much more scummy. BBT's trying to scumhunt, even if he ignores the Setup math. Vettrock is basicly posting only abouth the Math and as far as I can see, doesn't try to get reads on anyone. If we lynch scum we're still not there... we'll only have a better chance Tomorrow. Therefore, focusing on only ONE player is anti-town.
I don't have a strong townread on BBT. Firstly, there are disturbing things (eg. his Beast-vote). Second, if it's possible that both he and Vettrock are scum, their gameplay makes perfect sense.

Basicly, everything Beast has posted since the Copper-flip has been scummy. Did I misread him before (I thought: "don't think he's Mafia but could be SK") and he may be Mafia? Nevertheless, if it gets clear that there's an SK, we should insta-lynch him.

The similar goes for Mastin, although her latest posts look a bit less scummy than Beast's. (I could imagine that she's simply lazy but ehhh.)

Heartless used to fit perfectly in my old "Copper and Heartless are scum" theory. Unless they're bussing each other with BBT they can't be scum together. However, it's easy to imagine that they're scum with either Vettrock or Mastin (or both?). Need to re-check later.

Wicked looks town but his constant townread on Vettrock in this situation concerns me. If Vettrock's scum he's scum too, I think.

I still don't care about Titus. Someone mentioned that she could be SK, but, as far as I can remember, her claim can be wrong only if either Vettrock or BBT is lying.

Penguin could be scum only if BBT's lying. I'm still ignoring this possibility.

Including (from most important to least important factors)
– my reads on the recent posts
– the possibe teams (even if it's speculative)
– the Setup math (that I still need to re-examine)
Vettrock is to be lynched.
Beast looks so scummy that I'd rather lynch him than BBT if I had to choose between them because of the Deadline.

VOTE: Vettrock

[Aneninen]

I'm modifying my previous post (1606) about the setup.


The known flips are:

I, P (and a T)

I, P, K (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K,

K

There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities

(1) TTTTTTT, TTTTTT and TTTTT are

impossible

.

(3) TTTT

is

possible

but

only if

three claims are fake.

Not possible anymore.

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is

possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK

and

one of the other claims is fake too (either BBT or Vettrock is scum, but not both)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled, both BBT and Vettrock are scum – so, we still can't rule out this!
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled

and

either BBT or Vettrock is scum but not both

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is

possible if

Titus's claim is real

and

one of the other claims is fake, so either BBT or Vettrock is scum. There's no SK in this Setup. BBT's claim is real, Penguin is town, so all of these players are scum: Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked.

In case of (4), there are two scums between BBT, Vettrock and Titus. Two scums between Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked (plus, in theory, Penguin and Aneninen) If we lynch Vettrock or BBT, it's 66.67% that we lynch scum. If we lynch someone else, it's 40%. (By calculating these numbers I'm ignoring the possibility of a scum-Penguin, because he can be scum only together with BBT and I'm too lazy to calculate the probability of that. However, only for the correct mathematic, I'm not ignoring myself. I'm town but if we consider

only

the mathematical chances, the probability of a scum-Aneninen is the same as the probability of a scum-Beast/Heartless/Mastin/Wicked.)

In case of (5), either BBT or Vettrock is scum (but not both). Lynching one of them is an 50% possibility for lynching a scum. There are two scums between the other players. Lynching any of those gives an 40% chance for lynching a scum.

In case of (6), lynching BBT or Vettrock gives 0% for a scumlynch. Lynching anyone else gives 80%!!!

These are the

only

possibilities. In this case, the percentages of the setups are to be summarized and considered 100%. Namely, 27.3 + 16.4 + 5.5 = 49.2 = 100%
The chance of (4) is 55.5%
The chance of (5) is 33.3%
The chance of (6) is 11.2%.

Let's multiply these chances with the scumlynch possibilities.
Vettrock or BBT: 0.6667×0.55 = 0.3667 ; 0.5×0.333 = 0.165 ; 0.0×0.112 = 0.

Sum:

: 0.3667+0.165+0=0.5317 =

53.17%

Someone else (excluding Titus and Penguin): 0.4×0.555 = 0.222 ; 0.4×0.333 = 0.1332 ; 0.8×0.112 = 0.09

Sum:

0.222+0.1332+0.09=0.4452 =

44.52%

So, in theory, it's more likely by 8.65% that we lynch scum if we choose between Vettrock or BBT.
In practice, that difference is not significant enough to rule out every possible lynch Today, apart from that two players.

________

Post-edit. I know that some of you were doing the same Setup speculation, eg. Titus in the post above (yes, I've just got Ninja-ed.) But, as far as I know, noone has calculated the exact numbers before.
So, point it out if I've made a mistake about my calculations.

[Aneninen]

Totally not in favor of lynching BBT/Vettock today. ¹ More flips help us IMO. Two SK kills hidden will not be likely. ²
BBT hiding behind me will be treated as a scumclaim because of the high likelihood of my death.³
Btw, if I am Maniac, I will shoot Mastina.
If I am Teacher, I am shooting Wicked.⁴

(1) I concluded the same thing. Mathematically it's a better chance but the probability of lynching a scum is not

significantly

better. So, anyone who thinks that BBT or Vettrock are the only possible lynches Today follows a bad logic.
(2) If there's an SK at all.
(3) That wouldn't be a scumtell. That would be a dumbness-tell.
(4) I don't understand what you mean by "Maniac" and "Teacher" but, I don't think you should tell us whom you're going to target. That helps only the scums.

Btw, if I am Maniac, I will shoot Mastina.
If I am Teacher, I am shooting Wicked.

Uh, no offense, but you really shouldn't be shooting at all.

It depends on Today's flip, in my opinion.

Also, I'm hiding behind Mastin on the next night. If I die, Mastin is conf scum

DO NOT TELL YOUR MOVE!
If Mastin's scum, she's confirmed for sure but you're dead. If Mastin's town, the scums will target her and both of you're dead. You can replace Mastin's name with any of the names.
So, if you're really a Hider, don't inform us where you're going to hide (or

if

you're going to hide at all).

[Aneninen]

Please, explain me why I should "crack your crumb". Can I do anything about your shoot? No. Can the scums get your hints? Yes.

Later this evening I'll post my modified reads. (Summarizing/merging my pre-Copper-flip and post-Copper-flip reads.)

[Aneninen]

So, here are my revised reads.

BBT

. – Even though I think here are a couple of disturbing things (see my recent posts and my 1691, although many things are not true anymore in the latter post), I'm not scumreading him now. The speed of his wagon was also suggesting for me that he's not scum. If both BBT and Vettrock are scum we're pretty much f-cked but I hope that it's not true.
I'm considering him a bad lynch Today.

Vettrock

. – He looks much scummier now than before the Copper-flip. His recent posts are either against BBT or Setup-speculations. I still can't see why I should townread him. So, if there's a scum in the Vettrock/BBT pair, I think it's Vettrock.
Would lynch him Today. I'd prefer this lynch.

Mastin

. – She looks much scummier now than before the Copper-flip. Eg. her quick-vote for BBT before the Mod resolution was blatantly scummy (especially since she was completely for the Copper-lynch before the flip). If she's scum, it's not likely that either BBT or Vettrock is her partner.
Not a bad lynch, but not a priority.

Beast

. – I think my reads about him in 1751 must have been wrong. Everything, really, everything he has done since the Copper-flip has been blatantly scummy. Could be scum with Vettrock or basicly anyone.
Definitely a better lynch than BBT.

Heartless

. – They're propagating the BBT lynch, but they were scumreading him before the Copper-slip so, that's a null in itself. On the other hand, their reasoning is not good (there's no mathematical proof that we should choose between BBT and Vettrock, regardless of the fact that BBT's not doing Setup math at all). They could be scum with Vettrock or Mastin too.
Not a bad lynch, but not a priority.

Titus

. – I don't know. It's easy to imagine that she's against lynching both BBT or Vettrock, although this isn't a scumtell in itself (I've proven that it would be bad to rule out every other possible lynches). It's unlikely that she's scum with Vettrock (Titus could have lynched BBT if she wanted to do so). If she's really a Vig, she'll probably get Nightkilled. If she's still alive, we should take a closer look on her Tomorrow (especially if BBT's alive too).
Not lynching her.

Wicked

. – Normally, I would townread him and he has done nothing scummy since the Copper-flip. But, it would be a mistake to rule him out. (If there's no scum between Vettrock and BBT, all VT-claims apart from Penguin and me are scums.)
Bad lynch Today.

Penguin

. – The possibility of a BBT/Penguin scumpair is a borderline for me now, I'm ignoring this. If they're scum, f-ck off.
Not lynching him.

________

Summary.
There's less than 1 day until Deadline.
Vettrock is my strongest scumread, but I don't think there would be a Vettrock-wagon Today.
It seems that we lynch either BBT or Beast.

Beast looks much scummier than BBT.

It's night here.
Unless someone tells me not doing so, I'll move my Beast in the morning.

UNVOTE:

[Aneninen]

*Unless someone tells me not to do so, I'll move my

vote to

Beast in the morning.

[Aneninen]

Let's assume for a minute that BBT is town. If he WERE to die because of his hide, then that's yet one more dead town player. During the night. Meaning potential endgame.

Mastina, BBT is hiding behind you. Yet you postulate BBT might be dead tomorrow...why?

I strongly think that was a slip.

Do we have time for a quickwagon?

VOTE: Mastin

I'll drop by a couple of hours later.
If nothing happens (or if anyone but Mastin says that I should move my vote for one of the existing wagons) I'll hammer Beast. Because we only have 12 hours left.

[Aneninen]

VOTE: Beast

[Aneninen]

Is it over?

[Aneninen]

Thanks for modding, Jackal !
Also, greetings for my team, we were having a really good time ^_^
And thanks Mastin for the nomination. You deserved that joint win anyway. I had known before Day2 ended that you were the SK but I couldn't do anything about it without drawing too many FoS on myself.

I think I managed to spam so much Setup speculation that noone actually thought that I wasn't about to solve the game at all ^_^
Also, it worked out well that basicly, Wicked, Heartless and me never agreed on anything during the game.

I feel a bit sorry for the Copper-BBT fight and for Davesaz... I bet next time either Heartless or I show up in a game with him he'll try to insta-lynch us.

[Aneninen]

It goes without saying but if I had just pushed Anen harder (gained a little more support from town) then this game would have been completely different.

...I've felt the same soooo much times. I stop because "what if it'd be a mislynch"?
...and in other cases I push the case until I manage to convince all the others, only to achieve a ...mislynch.

I'm also annoyed that

town

scum focused so much on probability and completely stopped scum-hunting. That was seriously pissing me off.

FIFY ^_^

[Aneninen]

OFF

Come to Nobody Special's Large Normal! 4 places to go, I'd eagerly see anyone there! ^_^

ON