Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

[davesaz]

How carefully did you read the spoilers?

[davesaz]

I think Woody has a good point, and Thor has an answer for it. We'll see if that is a workable compromise between freedom and authority.
I like to take a different approach to early reads. With people I know, I tend to watch them operate and form an opinion from the observation.
On the other hand, with people I don't know it is important to generate interaction of some kind.
In that light
VOTE: KarmicGuide

17 has an interesting attribute btw.

[davesaz]

Ok. Time to catch up.

-Looks like we have town Nacho. Yay!

His interactions with Woody and Ciara both give me a town vibe. I especially liked #60

Have you played with scum Nacho and/or looked at scum games?

[davesaz]

Keep the walls to a Minimum early game please

Is it annoying to see walls of text when you already know who is mafia and who is town?

Not really when thor was my scum buddy in my first game with him I loved it. It depends on case by case bases.

That's an interesting response. Care to elaborate?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Nacho

Response to Radja looked strange, didn't like the threat of a vote.

Weak, very weak. How is it possible to get a read on that?

[davesaz]

Garmr appears to have not seen 105. I wonder if I commented on a scumslip?

Bella, nice way to dodge the question in your response to 106. How was Nacho's response strange, and how does it help you read him? And I noticed that you call my non-vote scummier but then emulate my behavior. Did you think it was scummy, or are you just trying to motivate me to take a more confrontational approach?

[davesaz]

What would you like me to comment on?

For starters, you could have answered my questions...

Are you talking about 59? I thought that was a rhetorical question. No, honesty is not scummy. It's scummy to call attention to yourself being a bad player early in the game because it sets up plausible deniability if you do something scummy.

Do you think being self-deprecating like that is scummy by itself, or would you also need to see it being used as an excuse later?

[davesaz]

This post contains an infraction of Rule #4.

NO SPOILERS

.

Read the rules again, they're in the OP... in a spoiler.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=63235

The offending post has been edited.

PSA

Spoilers are an essential part of internet etiquette, used for reducing the amount of material that needs to be downloaded on low-bandwidth connections and displayed on small screen sizes.

Authority: I've been on "the net" since before it was the InterNet
End PSA

[davesaz]

Garmr appears to have not seen 105. I wonder if I commented on a scumslip?

Bella, nice way to dodge the question in your response to 106. How was Nacho's response strange, and how does it help you read him? And I noticed that you call my non-vote scummier but then emulate my behavior. Did you think it was scummy, or are you just trying to motivate me to take a more confrontational approach?

I gave an honest answer and used an example I don't see that's a scum slip. You through aren't really good at hiding the fact that your scum your like two different people.

VOTE: Dave

Garmr appears to have not seen 105. I wonder if I commented on a scumslip?

Bella, nice way to dodge the question in your response to 106. How was Nacho's response strange, and how does it help you read him? And I noticed that you call my non-vote scummier but then emulate my behavior. Did you think it was scummy, or are you just trying to motivate me to take a more confrontational approach?

I gave an honest answer and used an example I don't see that's a scum slip. You through aren't really good at hiding the fact that your scum your like two different people.

VOTE: Dave

I cannot plausibly see how 72 was a scumslip but I just finished a game where dave was town and this was the kind of post he made.

Can you link me that game

Umm, you've personally seen my town game several times. I'm going to give you a very small portion of "benefit of the doubt", that perhaps you weren't paying attention or

possibly

that I didn't use the same technique in one of those games.

[davesaz]

Garmr, how did you interpret 71, which your 72 was replying to?

[davesaz]

Is anyone familiar with Radja's meta, in particular whether a slow start is normal?

[davesaz]

eventi, I will ask you the same thing I asked pistachion

Why haven't you posted anything else? Why ignore everything else going on?

You are responsible for about 1/3 of the posts to this point. Even if I wanted to look elsewhere it's like I have something jumping up and saying "LOOK AT ME" every time I look away.

I don't really buy the argument of not being able to see anything in the thread because one poster dominates. This sounds like scum planting seeds on a PL, as well as an excuse for bad reads later.

[davesaz]

Garmr, you have confused playstyle with meta. I don't make aggressive accusations as either town or scum, especially D1. I do tend to ask oblique questions as both alignments. Occasionally it actually finds scum, but the primary reason is to gather information.

Have a look at this game. The position you are taking here is similar to Whatisswag in that game. The main difference so far is that you have not yet made the error of calling me a liar. If you'd like to look further there is a pretty extensive list of games on my wiki page.

[davesaz]

You seem to be finding a lot of things vaguely suspicious yourself, but aren't contributing a huge amount of content aside from that- do you wanna ask me anything, because there's a lot of noise in the thread.

Who are you voting and why?
The first part of this question is obviously a joke, but the 2nd part is quite serious.

[davesaz]

Strongest townread--Probably KarmicGuide

I found it pretty weird that KarmicGuide didn't try to interact with me after my vote. Especially after I stated that the purpose was to cause interaction.
Setting that aside as bait that caught no fish, if I look at what he did post, it does look town to me. I wouldn't go as far as to say strong.
UNVOTE: KarmicGuide

I haven't made up my mind on Garmr yet. I don't remember him townreading me in a single game yet, so it could just be that my style rubs him the wrong way. I'm making a conscious effort to not scumread people for scumreading me, because it prevents me from seeing other scummy things. On the other hand, the case he's trying to make is the type I might try to make as scum, since it's easier to disengage by writing it off as a misunderstanding. Could go either way.

I don't see whatever it is that Thor is being scumread for.

Radja's response seemed town to me. Not a strong read but fairly clear.

Bella isn't doing much, but I don't have enough other game experience to compare to, to make an alignment call based on it.

[davesaz]

Eventi was a lot more active in a just-finished town game. Inactivity isn't a lot to go on but it merits a push this early in the day.
VOTE: eventi

[davesaz]

Links for completed games in common with Garmr:

Masquerade (you replaced out)
Apocalypse (you replaced out)
Picking Simplicity (you were scum)

[davesaz]

In the past few months I've seen scum nailed by meta. But lots of town mislynched too.

[davesaz]

The first day of the experiment has begun.

The timestamp of this post was Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:22 pm.
That's good enough to infer the deadline is Sun Sep 20, 2015 but not necessarily good enough to set a time.

@mod,

can we have a

Code: Select all

[countdown][/countdown]

please?

~8 days. I'm thinking we want a real wagon within the next 3 or so days in order to 1. catch scum if we're lucky, 2. get good information, 3. give enough time to shift if we stumble onto a PR.

If you're badgering people about early wagoning, you're missing the point of D1 for town.

[davesaz]

Badgering people about meant arguing against though i see it can be read both ways.

[davesaz]

As already clarified, scum reading Thor for wagoning is at least antitown, and a bit scummy too.
VOTE: Pistachi0n

[davesaz]

As already clarified, scum reading Thor for wagoning is at least antitown, and a bit scummy too.
VOTE: Pistachi0n

How so? From the way I understood it, he was scum reading Thor for excessively pushing a wagon with little to no evidence. And I tend to agree with him there.

Wagons are bad?

@Garmr: Now, was that so hard?

@Pista: I agree, but I'm not willing to call it scummy quite yet.

I'm going to sheep the Karmic wagon since, of the 2 wagons, his wagon has a lot more valid arguments. And, as was pointed out earlier, we need to get a wagon going soon if we're going to get a day 1 lynch.

VOTE: Karmic

Wagons are good? But that was the argument I was making in response to Pistachi0n.
Can you summarize the differences between the wagons that led you to make this choice?

[davesaz]

I don't like wagons for the sake of wagons. As I mentioned before, Karmic has a couple people making decent arguments against him. The arguments against Ciara are practically non-existent.

What would you say is the most convincing argument against Karmic?

[davesaz]

@Bella, same question.

[davesaz]

Bellaphant, why do your vote and unvote posts never seem to have a comment on the person you are voting / unvoting? It's very disconcerting.

[davesaz]

I'm finding both cases to be relatively ok for D1 and what is bothering me the most is the vehemence against the wagons on both sides.

[davesaz]

I'm finding both cases to be relatively ok for D1 and what is bothering me the most is the vehemence against the wagons on both sides.

Besides Karmic (who, naturally will dislike the wagon on him) who would you describe as vehement against the Karmic wagon? It seems it would have to be, and only consisting of, Nacho - who is defending the Karmic wagon, but isn't exactly barn nurning in the same way that Garmr or Glim are dogging on the Ciara wagon.

Or am I missing something from the inside looking out?

Granted, vehement is probably too strong a term. There is opposition, some of which is direct in the form of questioning the wagon(s) and some in the form of pushing the other wagon.

this ciara wagon raced awfully fast to L-1 and is giving me weird vibes.

Also that was a respond to prod, so I believe Ciara should have been prodded as well. No hammers please before she returns.

What do you consider fast? It's not like it popped up out of nowhere and got to L-1 the same day. Also while I agree that we want a reply to the L-1 situation, we can't just wait forever. I think we have a decent chance of catching scum with this wagon. The main reason we would move off it would be if there were a credible PR claim. This late in the day, getting cold feet on the absent player and a mad dash to another is a really bad idea. In fact, I'm comfortable with stating hammer intent at this point.

[davesaz]

I'm finding both cases to be relatively ok for D1 and what is bothering me the most is the vehemence against the wagons on both sides.

Why is this bothering you? In my experience, wagons in day 1 always have vehement opposition.

It would be more accurate to say the opposition to wagoning itself, not so much opposition to a particular wagon. Like the whole concept of thinking someone is scummy merely because they want a wagon. There is a difference between that, and saying the case for a specific wagon is scummy.

[davesaz]

You can consider this post intent-Ciara should claim at this point.

I guess you missed the post where intent was already given?

[davesaz]

I think I saw an unvote but don't remember who that person was voting.
Just in case...
VOTE: Ciara24

[davesaz]

VOTE: Vote: Bellaphant

I am going to do a little looking around elsewhere, but my reread yesterday put the two likeliest scum at Bellaphant and eventi.

I'd be interested in seeing what case you have. I also had Bellaphant pegged as a good scum candidate and would like to compare our reasons.
Since you mentioned it first, I'll let you provide the case first.

[davesaz]

Who was the third hammer intent?
To a degree I kind of want to lynch one of the hammer intents - I stand by what I said yesterday about that, that was *weird* and I am pretty willing to bet that there was a sloppy bus attempt hidden in that snarl.

I'll come right out and say that if I were going to bus, I wouldn't mess it up that badly. If you're going to look for a late bus look elsewhere.
My thoughts on the bussing angle is that it's more likely to be someone in the middle, if anyone bussed..

[davesaz]

Who was the third hammer intent?
To a degree I kind of want to lynch one of the hammer intents - I stand by what I said yesterday about that, that was *weird* and I am pretty willing to bet that there was a sloppy bus attempt hidden in that snarl.

I'll come right out and say that if I were going to bus, I wouldn't mess it up that badly. If you're going to look for a late bus look elsewhere.
My thoughts on the bussing angle is that it's more likely to be someone in the middle, if anyone bussed..

Are you aware of any other game where there was a wagon on Day 1 that had more than two players offering hammer intent?
I don't think I've ever seen that before, and I've played a lot of games.
Have you seen that before?

I will agree that there is a decent chance of a middle scum bus also - but I see nothing to argue against a late scum bus - do you?

No, I can't rule out a late bus, I just think in general it's less likely than early. Mostly because it can be so obvious. TBH I did not expect to see others also offer hammer intent, and don't think I have seen that before. I'm used to calling it and using it, not having someone jump in front of me like that.

In other news, I found Nacho's initial post to be very interesting. I can easily think of a reason for scum to start out that way, given the lack of a kill.

[davesaz]

I agree with the points against Pistachi0n. You'll remember I had identified the stance against Thor pushing wagons as suspicious right from the start.

Any comments on Nacho's attack on Bella and simultaneous call for claims? Especially the timing. I agree with Thor's stance regarding not taking a position on claiming itself. No point in helping scum with PR / not PR guesses that could lead from that discussion.

[davesaz]

First post of the day and votes right off. Asks for claims in the same post. The timing twigs me a bit, I've seen scum act like that after a failed kill to try to spook out the PRs.

[davesaz]

I know exactly who Dave jailed

Anyone planning to question this? I think I'll hold off on the result a bit.

[davesaz]

It's the doc+rb variety, and my target was Bella.

[davesaz]

Maybe. Iso-diving.

[davesaz]

Who else do you see as scummy?

[davesaz]

Since a JK result can be ambiguous, I'll hold off to avoid giving scum a clue of what to fakeclaim.

[davesaz]

VT here, and jealous of all you PRs.

What prompted this claim?

[davesaz]

Have we heard from everyone?

[davesaz]

I jailed KarmicGuide.

[davesaz]

I think lynch is the right move, and KarmicGuide is the right target.
It seems unlikely that he'd be scum's kill target, and we have no evidence of another way that scum could have failed to kill, unless they didn't believe Nacho is a doc.
No-killing for the wifom seems so subpar as a scum move that I can't imagine that being the strategy. There were too many good moves to have that be the choice.

[davesaz]

eh?

[davesaz]

In evaluating Bella as a plausible / implausible kill target for N1, shouldn't her reads on the known scum be taken into account, and not just the unknown ones? And ditto for KarmicGuide.
It also feels like we're relying too much on PR results and ignoring the possibility that VCA can help here.

[davesaz]

That's a scum excuse for how the scum picked the one you weren't protecting.

[davesaz]

692 was the pivotal moment. I chose my N2 JK based on that post.

[davesaz]

We got really good play from the other PR's. I thought you did pretty well looking like town resigned to being lynched as the obvious choice.

[davesaz]

My best guess is that the vote tags are reverse hilighted and thus easier to see. I prefer them when reading.
agree on expected swinginess. Town pr losses are swingy too.