Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[Wingback]

Fell behind unexpectedly. A couple of points from a skim-through of the thread:

Re: Gaming the poker hands

- Not a fan for two reasons: a) It's perfectly plausible for scum to be universal townreads especially if they are good players. Nightkills help POE. When scum get universally townread and are alive in LYLO, being bulletproof is a fantastic excuse for why they're not dead yet. Not being nk'd is actually a pretty great way to catch top-tier scum players and I don't want to take that scumhunting weapon away. b) Not as compelling as the first reason, but I see this as a hybrid poker + mafia game. I signed up to play both and I don't really care to sacrifice one game for the other. It seems that my predecessor was the universal townread but in theory, I still disagree with the idea so I'm going to continue playing poker.

Raise $20

Re: Infinity's question about something_smart

- Something_smart has consistently scumread or pushed against FA_Q2. But when push comes to shove, he chose the counterwagon (MoI) on very weak reasoning (we get more info). He's also never voted FA_Q2 and despite making a lot of noises, typically favored whoever else was a counter to FA_Q2. I think that could point to partners. I need to re-read some sections of the game though and fact-check to make sure I'm not misremembering things. I

have

agreed with a lot of things that something_smart said during his catchups although catchup mode does make it easy to post insightful-looking things when scum. Farside re-inforced my MoI townread and can go into that solid town pile.

Elaboration on non-townreads will happen tonight or tomorrow which currently is the pool of something_smart, MM, FA_Q2, and BBT. Also need to double-check qubixes and RedCoyote. Not really worried about Fire Assassin. Also, FA_Q2's non-response to me replacing in and voting him is telling. If he was honestly scumreading my predecessor, he'd have been even more convinced that I was scum for laying down a vote on him with zero reasoning apparently disappearing from the thread. I expected a hard push my way. Also, Persivul's replace out was ridiculously town but FA_Q2 doesn't comment on that either or take any stance on it.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: FA_Q2

[lane0168]

VOTE: something_smart

[lane0168]

Fold

VOTE: Something_Smart
Policy.

Oh yeah lol I keep forgetting to get rid of that self vote.
UNVOTE:

That vote looks like a vote on town to disprove your partner reasoning. Can go for the old "why are you still scum reading me if have your case was partners" if it came to it.

The quoted seems fake and forced.

[lane0168]

Okay so first of all, "zero scum game" is probably the most hilarious thing I have seen on this site 11/10 MoI

Ugh. I was really hoping to roll scum this game because I am far better at deceiving people I don't know and far better at reading people I do know. (I rely a lot on meta.) And meta without personal experience is like 10 times less effective.
.

No its not.

And this second part seems fake as shit too

I think moi was right about s_s saying a lot of good sounding stuff but... I gotta go see how he put it

[lane0168]

"@SS – can you explain why looking through you ISO I see exactly what Infinity called out RC for – posts that look like just being made for the sake of it as opposed to actual scum-hunting? Who are your scum reads and why are you not voting one of them?" -magna

I agree with this

[lane0168]

Do you guys think it's worth it to, once we decide on who to lynch, force the scummy players on the wagon to get off and replace them with towny players in order to keep the most possible money in the hands of the town?

Given how hard it tends to be to get players to agree to a lynch in the first place in general site meta do you think it is going to be viable to actually try to arrange wagons in this manner?

I don't know that's why I was asking

We tried something like that in this game, where I switched off a wagon in order to be the hammer on a claimed supersaint, but even that was screwed up by Anti hammering before I could. I don't know if we could accomplish this, but it seems like it would be helpful if we could.

Pedit: infinity are you copying ranger? if so why are you at the bottom?

The last line seems particularly fake considering they were both voting themselves at the time.

[lane0168]

Okay so first of all, "zero scum game" is probably the most hilarious thing I have seen on this site 11/10 MoI

A mislynch to verify this being completely false isn't the worst way to start out the game. However you'll change your mind on due time

This is anti-town.

This kind of assumes lane is town.

Could be scum dumping money to each other so they can buy out one of the bigger PRs early.

I really like this question and thought process. I hadn't considered any money shenanigans, but it makes sense that the scum may want to pool their money together under one person if they can, especially given how everything costs more than $500.

Not following this. It's a meh thought process, honestly to me it sounds more likely to come from scum than average. Why do you like it so much?

s_s - town: He seems to be genuinely trying to figure stuff out.

I would like elaboration on this, it sounds rather generic.

And to all of you who say I'm playing bad, that's normal: this is my second game here, and it's months after my first due to a quite tense situation I got into IRL. As for being hasty, I was: one of the primal needs of the human body is sleep, and I was in lack of it. I'll be coming up with a readslist as well as I can, but keep in mind that didn't help me much in my first game so don't be surprised if I only dig myself deeper and you end up lynching me.

This is fairly towny. 90 is using a lot of words to say nothing, I'm not sure if it's alignment indicative though. (Maybe slightly towny.)
Ugh. I was really hoping to roll scum this game because I am far better at deceiving people I don't know and far better at reading people I do know. (I rely a lot on meta.) And meta without personal experience is like 10 times less effective.

Hmm. I liked 91 and 92, but 93 is weak at best. Another player I'll have to meta.

MM has decent analysis, but nothing that can't be faked by scum

Interesting, that's exactly my thoughts on you.

Your votes for me basically say I'm transparent scum, guys; which would mean I'm bad. I'm not.
My reads are null with very soft leans in case you can read and spot them.

Eww.
98-99: qubixes is probably town. And I like lane's 100 too.

Not many people responded to my random reads list, but s_s responded in a towny way.

Is this why you were townreading me early?

The question everyone has to ask themselves, if you were townMM, would you have called scumlane? If so, why didn't you? If not, why would townMM do this?

I would have called if:
1) I thought my hand was the strongest,
2) I thought lane was bluffing, or
3) I didn't mind all my money going to lane. I think MM called for a mixture of 1 & 2.
I think several parts of 107 are awfully reachy. I think under certain circumstances, trying to get townread is a null tell, and I think MM would be doing so as either alignment. The LAMIST argument is also pretty tenuous. MoI is one of the few players I've seen firsthand before (as town, and I was modding the game so I wasn't reading as carefully into his posts as if I had been playing, but it's better than nothing) and so far this is looking like this could be the town play I saw, or it could not be. Before anyone jumps on me for fencesitting, the point of this is that I can't draw a clear conclusion from his posts yet.

This is a reach

yes

that is completely unworthy of a vote.

not necessarily. It's page 5, votes don't need to have strong reasoning attached and sometimes they're just for reactions anyway. I also don't like the implication that you might do things that would be worthy of a vote?

The question everyone has to ask themselves, if you were townMM, would you have called scumlane? If so, why didn't you? If not, why would townMM do this?

This reeks of scum trying to position the argument that there is no logical reason for MM to be Town when the question is very poorly staged.

I would have absolutely called Lane even if I thought he was scum trying some sort of gambit if I had a good 5 card draw poker hand. The obvious answer why I didn’t? I didn’t have a good hand. The second half is pointless given I think Town with a good hand would call scum Lane.

This is a false dichotomy and scummy. If Lane was scum looking to consolidate it is possible MM is a partner. It is also possible that MM has a good 5 card draw hand and he pre-empted scum’s plan as Town. Looking at the vote history he was the second to act.

More reaching... you don't necessarily know what the point of this question is. I certainly don't think it creates a false dichotomy.

It is also possible that MM has a good 5 card draw hand and he pre-empted scum’s plan as Town.

Actually MM would look a lot better if he had simply said he has a great hand and so he called. Claiming he was pre-empting scum's plan is bad. As has been already noted, if here were really thinking at that level, he would have waited for scum to call before going in himself.

QFT
I agree with the people who are saying that we need to see the results of the hand before we proceed in reading lane and MM. Kappy, we're looking at you.
118 sounds genuine. I don't think that reflects much on his alignment, except that there's a small chance he would continue to deny his mistake as scum.

This whole post reeks of trying to look town.

For example. Infinity says s_s responded in a towny way.
Follow up question of, is this why you were reading me as town?

Infinity literally says so, so why does s_s ask an question where the answer is in the quote? To look towny.

[lane0168]

S_s asks infinity to elaborate on him saying s_s seems to genuinely be trying to figure things out, because it seems kind of generic... It was page threeo. Really? And how do you even elaborate of you think someone sounds genuine?

[Infinity 324]

Lane, you actually make a really good case. I just can't get over the fact that he always seem to be going somewhere with his questions. The last part is a stretch too because if I think something is towny, that doesn't mean it's the basis for my entire read (and in fact, it wasn't)

Will respond to other stuff soon

PEdit: That's kind of a stretch too.

[lane0168]

Last part, "118 sounds genuine" but isn't alignment indicative. He just was asking someone to elaborate on calling something genuine. The thing I don't like, it's if s_s uses that exact wording, he knows what "sounds genuine" means. So why the heck ask infinity? To look town

[lane0168]

Sorry about the spam. Phones and all. I tried to do it in one but it got all fucked up. Continuing

[lane0168]

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion
I want to see where this goes.

@Infinity: you mentioned that MoI had made some towny posts. Can you direct me to them?

Actually I'd like to do this.
VOTE: MM
@Infinity: MM may be new to the site, but he's not naive. This was the essence of the experience debate: he's new to the way things work on this site but not to the way they work in general.

VOTE: FA_Q2

All of the rest of it is just me of the same. He's asking the easy questions. If you think all hours questions were going somewhere, I don't remember any of them going anywhere. Besides being answered... They just stop.

None of these votes seem to come from anything hes done. He's asked a lot of questions. A lot. But they never cumulated into votes from my perspective. Yes he asked questions to the people he's voted, but he's asked everyone questions

[Infinity 324]

Fire is prob scum as well.

I already said this earlier:

What's up, are you scum?

Not much, and Probably.

Ok looking back, this seems like it could be an attempt to wave off BBT saying he's scum with WIFOM. Town would be more likely ask why or ignore it.

Why? You think it was scummy of him to bring up his objectively bad play from earlier to me? If he was scum, I'd think he would've completely dodged that.

Because it's designed to do exactly what it just did. Get town reads.

I think it was more of an attempt to call out RC's reasoning, but I could kinda see this

Do you think mm is scummier than faq2? What type of impression do you get of mm's personality that would explain his rather bold and not very careful actions as noob scum? (I'd like everyone who's on the mm wagon to answer that)

Yes, I do think he is scummier.

To reiterate (it's probably good I do this since my original rationale is buried in posts from a while back), he really, really overplayed the newbie card (see: 88), his suspicions of lane originally proved hypcritical (see: 106), and q's comment in 98 was very much on point. He explains why MM acted irrationally in his betting as town. Poker /= Mafia. It has nothing to do with being new to Mafia.

Not the best case against someone that I've ever seen, but it's good enough.

Ok, let me put it this way. With the type of player you perceive MM to be, do you think he would be more bold and less careful than other noob scum? If so, why?

BBT do you want to ask me if I think my scum game is good?

Is your scum game good?

@MM If you don't have a scumread strong enough to commit why are you putting a vote on me? You can see why many of us are confused at your behavior, town or scum you aren't making any sense.

Ok this is really bad, it seems like you know MM won't flip scum.

I will say, Infinity, that I think MoI had a really good point earlier (I think it was MoI) when he said that MM is handling pressure exceedingly well and unlike newbscum may be more inclined to do.

It's not that he's handling pressure particularly well, it's that he's handling pressure completely differently from how noob scum (or any scum) would react. I think scum!mm would hesitate before overexplaining himself as he did. Yet he's still playing the game and trying to scumhunt, whereas if he gave up (which is likely for scum in his position), he wouldn't be doing that.

VOTE: FA_Q2

Ahhh, the sweet sweet WIFOM.

What motivated you to vote here?

Last part, "118 sounds genuine" but isn't alignment indicative. He just was asking someone to elaborate on calling something genuine. The thing I don't like, it's if s_s uses that exact wording, he knows what "sounds genuine" means. So why the heck ask infinity? To look town

Think this is a stretch too, because calling someone genuine on the whole is different from calling 1 post genuine.

Ok I have some ISO's to do, but I still think s_s is town despite some lines that lane pointed out being forced. Lane, I think you should get back on faq2.

@Fire: How good would you say you are at making your interactions with people look genuine as scum?

PEdit: Ok lane I'll try to look for examples to show you what I'm talking about.

[Infinity 324]

Re: Gaming the poker hands

- Not a fan for two reasons: a) It's perfectly plausible for scum to be universal townreads especially if they are good players. Nightkills help POE. When scum get universally townread and are alive in LYLO, being bulletproof is a fantastic excuse for why they're not dead yet. Not being nk'd is actually a pretty great way to catch top-tier scum players and I don't want to take that scumhunting weapon away.

You make quite a good point here. Though if there are more scummy players in the game, I still like fire's plan because then it's less likely that scum is the towniest player and getting actual tracker results, for example, may be very useful.

Also, FA_Q2's non-response to me replacing in and voting him is telling. If he was honestly scumreading my predecessor, he'd have been even more convinced that I was scum for laying down a vote on him with zero reasoning apparently disappearing from the thread. I expected a hard push my way. Also, Persivul's replace out was ridiculously town but FA_Q2 doesn't comment on that either or take any stance on it.

Yeah, exactly.

You said earlier that you were very confident I'm town, why is that?

[Infinity 324]

Spoiler: towny s_s stuff

Could be scum dumping money to each other so they can buy out one of the bigger PRs early.

I really like this question and thought process. I hadn't considered any money shenanigans, but it makes sense that the scum may want to pool their money together under one person if they can, especially given how everything costs more than $500.

Not following this. It's a meh thought process, honestly to me it sounds more likely to come from scum than average. Why do you like it so much?

Like and kind of agree this thought

And to all of you who say I'm playing bad, that's normal: this is my second game here, and it's months after my first due to a quite tense situation I got into IRL. As for being hasty, I was: one of the primal needs of the human body is sleep, and I was in lack of it. I'll be coming up with a readslist as well as I can, but keep in mind that didn't help me much in my first game so don't be surprised if I only dig myself deeper and you end up lynching me.

This is fairly towny. 90 is using a lot of words to say nothing, I'm not sure if it's alignment indicative though. (Maybe slightly towny.)

This seems genuine, and I like how he pointed out that MM's post was town cause I think scum would've called him out for it because it's kind of anti-town

I think several parts of 107 are awfully reachy. I think under certain circumstances, trying to get townread is a null tell, and I think MM would be doing so as either alignment. The LAMIST argument is also pretty tenuous. MoI is one of the few players I've seen firsthand before (as town, and I was modding the game so I wasn't reading as carefully into his posts as if I had been playing, but it's better than nothing) and so far this is looking like this could be the town play I saw, or it could not be. Before anyone jumps on me for fencesitting, the point of this is that I can't draw a clear conclusion from his posts yet.

This seems genuinely trying to read MoI, don't think scum would even bring up fencesitting

I also like his progression of reads throughout the post, it seems like just the right amount of conf bias that is natural.

MoI, do you think lane's alignment is related to his apparent poker knowledge? (You seemed to in 107.) Do you understand why RC says your arguments are poor in 107?

Makes sense to ask these questions given his previous suspicions on MoI

RC, what is your read on Persivul? You've gone to great lengths to argue that lane's bet was non-alignment-indicative, do you have a read on him outside of that? (Especially given that his terrible hand was revealed.)

Makes sense given his previous suspicions on RC, and I think it's a good point

207: I've heard a saying about lying, it goes something like: you can tell a liar because their story fits together TOO perfectly. When people are telling the truth they often misremember or suffer bias that makes their story not perfectly consistent. I therefore don't agree with any of the arguments against MM that relate to his call and explanation thereof.

Very good point, and a lot of the reason why I currently townread MM.

First part of 239: Ugh, this is something I've seen from both town and scum. Sometimes town really does form reads like that but IME if that's all you have to support it then you might want to reevaluate it. Not to mention that it's the easiest read in the world to fake as scum.

Good point, and seems like he's genuinely conflicted on my alignment (though I disagree because that tell is very consistent for me)

Don't know how I feel about lane calling qubixes's posts good points... on the one hand, they are (or at least 267 is... I don't understand 265), but on the other hand this isn't the first time lane's done this and I wonder if once he decided on qubixes as a hard townread he was just going to call everything he did town.

Quite a good point

But that brought up a question.

@s_s, why despite this

207: I've heard a saying about lying, it goes something like: you can tell a liar because their story fits together TOO perfectly. When people are telling the truth they often misremember or suffer bias that makes their story not perfectly consistent. I therefore don't agree with any of the arguments against MM that relate to his call and explanation thereof.

do you still scumread mm?

[Something_Smart]

Ugh. I was really hoping to roll scum this game because I am far better at deceiving people I don't know and far better at reading people I do know. (I rely a lot on meta.) And meta without personal experience is like 10 times less effective.
.

And this second part seems fake as shit too

What's fake about it? I thought about this before the game, it's not reflective of my alignment and I just wanted it out there.

"@SS – can you explain why looking through you ISO I see exactly what Infinity called out RC for – posts that look like just being made for the sake of it as opposed to actual scum-hunting? Who are your scum reads and why are you not voting one of them?" -magna

I agree with this

I answered it. Do you not think my answer is valid?

[snip]
Pedit: infinity are you copying ranger? if so why are you at the bottom?

The last line seems particularly fake considering they were both voting themselves at the time.

what?

For example. Infinity says s_s responded in a towny way.
Follow up question of, is this why you were reading me as town?

Infinity literally says so, so why does s_s ask an question where the answer is in the quote? To look towny.

Infinity had previously referenced a different reason for townreading me (reading my scumhunting as genuine). So I wanted to see if he would forget that and change his story or if he would say that it was both.

S_s asks infinity to elaborate on him saying s_s seems to genuinely be trying to figure things out, because it seems kind of generic... It was page threeo. Really? And how do you even elaborate of you think someone sounds genuine?

I didn't know what he was going to say but I wanted to see what he did say and I never ever get townread that early so I was hella paranoid.

Lane, you actually make a really good case.

Last part, "118 sounds genuine" but isn't alignment indicative. He just was asking someone to elaborate on calling something genuine. The thing I don't like, it's if s_s uses that exact wording, he knows what "sounds genuine" means. So why the heck ask infinity? To look town

I didn't ask what it meant. I asked why he got that feeling.

Ahhh, the sweet sweet WIFOM.

What motivated you to vote here?

I keep forgetting how bad his ISO is. I just looked it over again and I just got a terrible gut feeling from it. I read his ISO in a towngame and didn't get the same feeling. I'll pull quotes later (a bit rushed rn), and there's another reason I'll get to later as well.

@s_s, why despite this

207: I've heard a saying about lying, it goes something like: you can tell a liar because their story fits together TOO perfectly. When people are telling the truth they often misremember or suffer bias that makes their story not perfectly consistent. I therefore don't agree with any of the arguments against MM that relate to his call and explanation thereof.

do you still scumread mm?

Changing your story is not a strong towntell, and his posts just seem forced and weak. The point of that quote is that it's not a scumtell, at least not the way he's doing it. My scumread, as I said before, does not have to do with anything related to his early call of lane's bluff.

[Infinity 324]

^^ town

[Infinity 324]

It's just that I thought some of your early posts were forced as lane pointed out but I also think MM and RC's posts are forced so...

[Infinity 324]

Fire, what's your read on faq2 and why?

[Infinity 324]

I think I found something important I just want fire to answer my questions first.

[farside22]

Lane made quite a good case on faq2 earlier, I'm not good at making cases cause a lot of my thinking is based on gut, so

Idk if we can convince qubixes to join the faq2 wagon since he seems to be tunneling on mm, but we can try

I don't expect you to speak for either of them, Infinity. I'll hear them out. I may be convinced to pivot yet. I'm definitely not a diehard MMscum proponent.

Do you think mm is scummier than faq2? What type of impression do you get of mm's personality that would explain his rather bold and not very careful actions as noob scum? (I'd like everyone who's on the mm wagon to answer that)

Yes, I do think he is scummier.

To reiterate (it's probably good I do this since my original rationale is buried in posts from a while back), he really, really overplayed the newbie card (see: 88), his suspicions of lane originally proved hypcritical (see: 106), and q's comment in 98 was very much on point. He explains why MM acted irrationally in his betting as town. Poker /= Mafia. It has nothing to do with being new to Mafia.

Not the best case against someone that I've ever seen, but it's good enough.

---

Because it's designed to do exactly what it just did. Get town reads.

Oh, please. Better yet, I'll translate that from American to English for you: Come off it. I don't want to hear this WIFOM stuff. I do not get this scum mastermind impression from Fire Assassin at all. He's a smart guy, but that's a bridge too far. "FA did something silly, got called out on it, acknowledged he got called out on it, just so he could later refer back to that as a scum trick!" That's just too much.

---

Not sure if you paid attention or don't care but fire was asking about throwing the poker hands to those that are town reads, which I like the idea and your not a town read.
Also wing has made exactly one post thus far get over it.

Yeah, and that's what we've just been talking about, dear.

So you're deliberately electing to prolong the hand and not make a move, hm?

I didn't say I was.
I stated I had reasons to with hold my action currently.

Fire is just - shall I say - the player I'm the most disposed to dispose of. I don't have a scumread strong enough to commit to yet.

BBT, Wingback, FAQ, RC and qubixes are the other ones I feel less town than the rest. But none of them ticks me as much as Fire right now.

How can you not have a strong scum read by now? I recall from my read through you've played mafia a few times.

[farside22]

And I'm caught up.

fold

I think s_so missed my question, I could be wrong, too tired to check right.
Someone reminder to check on it.
Interestingly enough RC has me rethinking my scum read on him

[lane0168]

Do you guys think it's worth it to, once we decide on who to lynch, force the scummy players on the wagon to get off and replace them with towny players in order to keep the most possible money in the hands of the town?

Given how hard it tends to be to get players to agree to a lynch in the first place in general site meta do you think it is going to be viable to actually try to arrange wagons in this manner?

I don't know that's why I was asking

We tried something like that in this game, where I switched off a wagon in order to be the hammer on a claimed supersaint, but even that was screwed up by Anti hammering before I could. I don't know if we could accomplish this, but it seems like it would be helpful if we could.

Pedit: infinity are you copying ranger? if so why are you at the bottom?

The last line seems particularly fake considering they were both voting themselves at the time.

This was wrong quote

[lane0168]

Wait no it wasn't, why did you care if he had himself at the bottom? You had yourself at the bottom. You were voting yourself