Newbie 1734 - Happy (Game Over)
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Would you prefer kidney? :V
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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This doesn't mean anything unless it's a lot more extreme like over the course of a few days. It especially won't mean much now that you brought it up this early!~In post 31, Gamma Emerald wrote:Infinity has been very frequently posting in another game. Thoughts?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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tentative reads, actually.
Gamma you seem really eager and relaxed which I like.
Skolds entrance post+vote and especially unsolicited comment on scumtells I actually love tbh though I might be overvaluing.
Infinity's engaging on me which is right given our history though he's not quite as relaxed as I'd expect.
Rest are just rvs posts though magi seemed a tad eager.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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No? Tinsy bit town eager. Comparing rvs posts is splitting hairs though since it's kind of gut and feeling at that point.
Ehhh not really. Maybe? You were kind of treating me serious like as if I was a stranger, idk.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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IMO kydney mostly came in and posted irrelevant to thread goingons rather than seem interested in participating. We were all talking about actual (tentative) reads and she kind of wasn't though her tone sounded eager.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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At that point gamma, infinity, me and skold voted things with at least a basic reason vs kydney just RVS and fluff but you pointed out gamma and kyndey as the people who stood out in wanting to look for scum.
I don't get it.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Liking gallynukes readlist for town. Somewhat familiar with kyndy and I like the impetus/effort she put in this early though I don't use the same kind of reasoning and don't reach the same conclusions.
Lil's answer was okay.
VOTE: Skold
I don't know if your complaining legitimately or in a lamist way but you haven't done much but stifle what other people are doing.
What do you hope to accomplish like this?
It looks like you're interested in infinity but then why not engage him or go into that some more? Anything that does anything.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Okay since this is a newbie.
Him pushing this as he does is kind of more absurd than anything else given it also draws a lot of attention to himself, but this shouldn't be allowed for game health if nothing else.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Okay, say you're town. 9p game 7 town 2 mafia.
Assume every town pushes randomly, but mafia don't push partner d1.
7:2 pushing if everyone influences the game VS
6:2 if one town sits back d1 and doesn't try to influence.
Which is more likely to land on scum? Pure/provable random lynching AFAIK is actually against site rules.
Even if everyones going in whatever dumb directions, the less town are influencing or leading the decision the less likely you lynch scum period.
But like even disregarding all that it's just terrible to encourage this in a newbie game of all things...-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@Gallynukes your scumread on gamma is essentially because he dropped too many votes and wanted to get something going? Can you go more into why that's necessarily malicious, especially this early?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Uhm. I ISOed him and it looks like not too long before that vote he said he scumread infinity, apparently based on activity. Mentioned a few times.In post 149, kyndy101 wrote:The transition between 67 and 69 is unnatural to me; 67 is focusing on Rask, but 69 is a naked vote on Infinity. Looking at the context provides no more light on the situation, as SKOLD was the only poster between the two. Skold wasn't even writing about Infinity, and I find it implausible that Gamma made a skold-infinity mix-upagainfarther into the game.
I don't think you saying this is AI, but FTR he's actually right here. Explaining a townread when unnecessary (person not in a position needing defending) is giving up information for low benefit and degrades the use of whatever tell it is (because it's out there and seen now).In post 149, kyndy101 wrote:I don't understand the aggression against Infinity in 82, and the reasoning is weird.
If you actually look he at some point justified every vote though?In post 149, kyndy101 wrote:Gamma then has a conversation with Infinity that imo isn't very alignment indicating, however then Gamma states that Rask and Infinity could be mafia with little input from the other players beforehand. There was no good reasoning for either accusation, and the previous reads of his were Skold being scum (heavily implied, from the voting etc), and a random vote on Infinity and a terribly-reasoned vote on me.
This post by gamma actually could be bad, but not for why you say it is. The thing is coming out with a distancing/buddying read COULD BE a kind of low effort way to cast doubt on both slots, although if anything there is some basis to him being interested in that given how earlygame was. 100 is him admitting its a complicated situation though and the question at the end is actually good because it feels like he is trying to figure things out.In post 149, kyndy101 wrote:As for 97, I find it unlikely that scum would do a buddying / distancing dynamic that early on.
You point out what he says is unlikely but I don't think saying unlikely things or even being wrong is necessarily AI vs motive.
Mmm. The vote does look lazy but the explanation is okay (it being pressure motivated, in other words). Voting someone to get their attention is actually extremely effective from my experiences.In post 149, kyndy101 wrote:I don't agree with the logic in 100. Terrible voters logic in 113, terrible logic continues in 115.... all of this leads me to heavily lean scum on Gamma. Therefore, VOTE: Gamma for now.
From what I've seen you did ISO him but didn't read too in depth and missed a lot of things. Particularly keeping track of what he says about each player none of his votes are really mystery ones (although you can disagree with his logic, and could argue his reasoning is scummy, you can't say there is no reasoning offered when there was).
Now idk if this even bad from you because on the game as a whole you gave a lot of thoughts and did split effort between every player that posted, but I usually see people don't skim their strongest scumread iso without trying to figure it out a bit more. I'll look into it.
But for now I await your response. I want you to respond in depth to my points, whether you agree or disagree with each and why.
VOTE: kyndy-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@Gamma
Policy lynches are easy wagons to hop on and scum usually either
a) hop on in a lazy way
b) stay off, but do so conspicuously. Example is saying they're strongly opposed but not showing it with actions (looking apathetic). Or changing the read.
kyndy was a little close by townreading him to then not liking his posts but I'm not sure it's significant enough. I don't really know how to read the unvote thing and how she thought she had him voted.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Lil's jump onto l-1 would be pretty bad if there was a VC posted before it (and the previous one wasn't inaccurate) but I was finding it confusing myself keeping track this game... I might actually be too naive with newbies but it's just not quite enough.
Gally and gamma look town whereas he's kind of null with the trust thing from earlier I still don't get. Probably my 2nd choice to wagon tbh.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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You can use FOS if you want it's still good. Usually people have enough trigger discipline to either announce l-1 or notice when it is l-1 but it actually is a little dangerous in a newbie specifically; there are occasionally accidents... and "accidents". Although the real harm moreso than the lynch (I don't particularly care for skold even though I townlean them) is that it would cut day 1 far too short.In post 275, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I have a few questions about votes. It seems votes are somewhat used to point a finger of suspicion on this site? If so, why? Wouldn't pointing fingers lead to less scenarios where one accidently puts a player at l-1? Not that it matters for me personally right now since Skold has moved past the suspicion stage for me but just for future reference.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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This is really interesting actually... I remember sort of watching one of your games after.
You were making those awesome read spreadsheets and I was like wow this is so pro-town zyf is obvtown here again... and then I checked in later when it ended, hah. Still, you fooled me there.
What particularly triggered me was how you put everyone as strong townreading themselves in that graph-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@Gamma can you summarise your zyf scumread? In one post, ideally without quotes, going into detail.
@Lil thoughts on gamma v zyf? Did you get anything from that massive exchange?
@Inf we diverge here, I think. Zyf coming as he did is making this approach too-many-(x)s territory...-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Also jesus christ I feel like I replaced into this now.
The game was too slow before but now the thread literally doubled yesterday... please can we condense future posts when possible. For the sake of my mental health-
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LOL. X was townreads, I didn't want to say that directly after the previous two questions as they'd look a lot less innocent... personally I prefer what I get if one's guard is down. Thought infinity would infer it based on context.
The mad triggering though-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Zyf all your case essentially did for me was make feel good about your alignment, however you play the game and read very differently than me.
But even so your entrance makes me waver on gamma if only because it's a stronger read and I don't feel comfortable having too many this early...
Gamma's answer to me directly is pretty short itself but with how he addressed zyf today overall with other posts I do think it's an genuine scumread.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Mmm. The FOS on me actually makes sense if you misinterpreted what I said as a cowardly scumread.
The reducing of your gamma scumread based on support is complete nonsense (scum would have more support?) though, even though I even agree with the conclusion you make that justification is absurd.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Speak in alignments please[/quote]In post 461, Zyf wrote:Gamma's answer to me directly is pretty short itself but with how he addressed zyf today overall with other posts I do think it's an genuine scumread.
Is it really so hard to understand this?X was townreads
Holy shit impatience.In post 461, Zyf wrote:Also thanks for answering the triple-asked theory question
You know if you're gonna ask a hundred questions at least don't be a dick when it takes a while to get everything answered.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Basically you came in as strong as you did but the downside was it was making me uncomfortable having that many townreads.
So among them I was reconsidering the older ones including gamma how much he believed his read on you vs if its reactionary (which only lasted all of a few hours though considering today).-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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If you wanna reduce the entire game to that then okay, the point is good use of logic doesn't equal town. I have other games I could bring up.
Bad logic becomes a scumtell when it's so bad that it's no longer believable that the person themself believes what they're saying (which is a lying tell not a bad logic tell). IOW you think their view is fake.-
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Scummy as in, do most people think it's scummy? I don't know, I don't think people generally have any problem with it. If it's really over the top it'll get looked at as possible counterwagoning to whatever is going on atm but people treat it pretty much the same as it'd be from a non-replacement.In post 455, Zyf wrote:@Skold+Rask-Is immediately being aggresive upon replacement scummy?
Scummy as in actually scummy? I think replacing gives scum a good opportunity to play apart from the rest of the game which gives them low responsibility for their actions. I do think scum are more likely to case someone new than joining a popular wagon coming in since it has some advantages and they are put in a position with full flexibility that allows them to do that. Still, it's not more than a rough indicator I think.
Your replace aggressiveness on the other hand I like for a few things though it'd probably be bad to go into it.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@Gamma asking for sheeping and hard pushing is actually a towntell because it's essentially taking on extra responsibility and attention, not to mention ideal scum scenario is actually being on a wagon that doesn't go through for obvious reasons.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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So cheeky... do you automatically assume I'm a bad town player because you played with my scumgame?In post 508, Zyf wrote:
your townreads have a pretty high chance of not being perfect right nowIn post 505, Raskolnikov wrote:I'm not going to explicitly explain why the way zyf replaced in is good while we have 2 pending replaces, of which at least one IS scum barring one of my townreads being wrong.
purely mathematically AND statistically
Obviously mathematically and statistically is WORSE than reads unless you assume the opposite (that someone is so bad at scumhunting they're more likely to vote scum by rolling dice). Which is probably something skold would say
Also even ignoring any townread accuracy the pure chance just one of the replaces is scum is significant enough for the principle to hold, though tbh I forgot combinatrics.
You keep doing this thing where it's like you disagree with a detail of something but don't contest the point I make and it's like WHY
I can say this because she's gone now! From meta I've seen kyndy is really lynchbaity and even surface-level reads or shallow game pov isn't necessarily AI for her. Which is why I wanted her to answer my questions... I think she's the type you have to pressure to see her actually give something indicative or reveal her fake thought processes (although you have to be careful what's actually relevant given how she pretty much always looks scummy on the surface) but so much for that. The slot's still nullscum for that entrance but I'll have to pretty much start over reading the replacement. It's still worth looking at for me though if only because of the townreads elsewhere.In post 508, Zyf wrote:also what are your thoughts on Kyndy and their readslist? afaik the last time you explained your SR on them was because they were primarily fluffposting, but that was pre-list.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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The general theory is true but I don't think gamma is a good example of this... people also have to believe in the slot's proficiency :vIn post 511, Zyf wrote:
When multiple people are TR-ing you strongly you hold the position to sway people's thoughts more than others because they trust you moreIn post 509, Gamma Emerald wrote:Okay, I get the sheeping bit now. So what was that you were saying about me having town read power position?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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And literally everything I said is "this is interesting and I'd like to wait for further data before making a conclusion". Do you assume I'm confident in my reads because I'm confident with how I'm speaking? Because that's not really how it works.
What makes you assume everything is set in stone? That I have the game solved? I have townreads and so I think it's worth focusing on the people I don't have townreads on.
If I get more townreads I'm going to revisit and consider if one is wrong! If not then not.
I play this game in mostly a townhunting manner, not a scumhunting way so if you have a problem with poe you have a problem with my playstyle as a player.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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OOOoo this is actually fascinating to me personally
So I never directly make a list of "people likely to fool me" but every read I do think of one thing, which is
how good of an actor is this player/how potentially good is their scumgame.
And the higher that level is the closer that read will generally have to stay to NULL... so for example someone like nachomamma who is god scum could look towny as usual and I would feel uncomfortable ever RULING THEM OUT.
Convincing townyiness from 5 year veteran who's won scummies = still null, same read on a slot that the performance is impossible from = really good read
The best reads for me are therefore on people who don't just look towny, but who you can feel comfortable won't be able to fake what they're doing there.
In general for lategame/hard poe and when you get into final "game solving", I like the approach of guilty until innocent where unless there is reason to believe a slot is definitely NOT SCUM, it's never really removed from consideration, even if it's a nulltown or a townlean when there's other stronger scumreads.
Of course early you have to make concessions and try to be efficient, but we're talking lategame with this.-
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