Open 657: JK9++ (Game over)

[MiniDeathStar]

But I'd still like to know whether vengeful can bypass SK vest. I'd be really scared if not.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw Creature? You said yesterday you had something that could make me more confident about town!you?

[MiniDeathStar]

Deers pushed bang's lynch. I know he could have been bussing (or the SK) but he could have gone for Kop, too (although that would definitely have made him scummy af at that point). Still, I can't ignore it, considering I never had a strong scumread on him beyond my theory involving alban's death. And that's pretty much a cold case now.

Tiger moth on the other hand has been super uninvolved this game. She had poor reads on Day 1, her case on Agent Jin wasn't *that* good, and she's been kind of unhelpful on Day 2 beyond the "Klingon suicided in alban" revelation. Honestly, I expected a lot more. The fact she hasn't been very scummy I could attribute to experience and lurking.

But like, please don't take my reads for granted when it comes to the final LYLO. I'm fairly sure I suck at this and I got somewhat lucky + let's be honest, bang was pretty scummy at the end of Day 2. I want to lynch the PR scum now, because we know it's not me and we know that if it's not Charlie then he can zap Creature.

I'm just concerned about that SK vest. It's going to be a very difficult decision if the vest is confirmed to protect from vengekills. Which I suspect it does, because the wiki page for gunsmith says that vengefuls possess guns, and I doubt they mean laser guns.

[MiniDeathStar]

Okay folks. Randomidget just confirmed to me in PM that vengeful kills bypass an SK's vest. Let's do this.

VOTE: Charloux

If you're not scum, please smite Creature in twilight.

[MiniDeathStar]

Actually, why am I in such a hurry.

UNVOTE: Charloux

We have a whole day to discuss. I kind of want to know what to expect tomorrow when I die.

[MiniDeathStar]

Few reasons.

1) If Creature is town, we'll lose the game by lynching him. We won't lose by lynching Charlie unless he fails to shoot scum.

2) Town!Creature could vig Tiger moth tonight and enter LYLO with himself as clear and you + Deers as the last villagers (if Tiger moth is town).

3) The only reason I thought Charlie was town up to now was his vengeful claim. Now that push has come to shove, I think it's time to make use of the vengeful power and simultaneously clear him.

4) The night kill on Kop makes way more sense if Charlie is scum than if the villager scum shot him.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, basically lynching Charlie guarantees scum dies today, lynching Creature doesn't.

[MiniDeathStar]

Umm I asked several times in this thread and randomidget was not answering so I had to ask him in private. I'm sorry I can't share any communication between us, but it basically went like

- can an SK vest stop a vengeful kill?
- no it only stops nightkills

Just purely a mechanics question, no roles or anything.


@Creature: Umm why would we be lynching a villager when we have a 100% chance to get scum by lynching Charlie?

[MiniDeathStar]

We lynch SK, I'll vig MDS and then the next day we lynch Charl if MDS turns out to be town.
We lynch VT, I'll vig one of the VT claims, I believe mafia will also kill one of the VT claims and SK will most likely kill me to keep his identity a secret. If I'm wrong, the next day should be: 1:1:1 or 2:1:1

1:1:1 = Nolynch
2:1:1 = One town should try to get themself lynched

That is an absolutely terrible plan. We literally have a guaranteed scumkill if we lynch Charlie. Why are you opposing it?

[MiniDeathStar]

Sooo question guys. Why do you suddenly think *I* am scum and not Creature or Charloux?

[MiniDeathStar]

If I am scum, it's 2:1:1 -> I kill a villager claim with 1/3 chance to hit scum, scum kills me, 2/3 villager scum wins, 1/3 town wins, I don't win.

If I am town, I have a pretty good chance to win by lynching Charlie.

[MiniDeathStar]

That is an absolutely terrible plan. We literally have a guaranteed scumkill if we lynch Charlie. Why are you opposing it?

How is it guaranteed? It's only a 66.6% chance, and I don't think he is scum.

66.7% is better than 33.3%.

[MiniDeathStar]

If I am scum, it's 2:1:1 -> I kill a villager claim with 1/3 chance to hit scum, scum kills me, 2/3 villager scum wins, 1/3 town wins, I don't win.

If I am town, I have a pretty good chance to win by lynching Charlie.

And like, even if you think I'm a bulletproof SK, it would go like:

2:1:1 ->
I hit scum, scum hits me -> 2:1 -> town lynch me, town wins
I hit villager, scum hits me -> 1:1:1 -> could go either way

[MiniDeathStar]

(and by either way I mean 50% town win 50% scum win 0% SK!Mini win)

[MiniDeathStar]

So. Now that we've established I literally can't win as scum by following the plan I suggested, but have a pretty good chance to win as town, can we start trusting me again?

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh god I totally hate those dudebros. Glad to have you back Charlie!

Yes, I am also a feminist.

---

Charlie, you scum or town? If you're town, what do you think about vengekilling Creature the scum?

[MiniDeathStar]

Scum!Creature had to kill lane, because we agreed yesterday that if bang flips scum he 100% "vigs" lane. If he hadn't killed lane, he'd have been lynched 100% today.

Anyway Charlie, if you're town, you should just get yourself lynched and vengekill scum!Creature (or die if you're scum yourself), and tomorrow it'll be 2 villagers vs the last scum. I think it's the best shot town has right now.

(and before you suggest I could be scum, I've explained how as scum I lose with this strategy 100% of the time)

[MiniDeathStar]

Right now I think it's Tiger moth. 70% confident. But no worries, we have time. No need to rush and lynch *now*. I just want to 100% lynch you today because that guarantees the PR scum loses.

I'll explain it again. Assume I'm scum and you vengekill Creature. I'll be the only PR claim left and confirmed scum.

Night 3 starts as 2:1:1. Fake villager shoots me, I shoot a villager claim, this is 1/3 town win, 2/3 win for the villager scum so they should definitely shoot me.

If I'm 1-shot BP SK, town has even *better* odds.
2:1:1 ->
I kill a villager (67%), mafia hits my vest -> 1:1:1 -> no lynch -> mafia knows me, I don't know them. They kill me, I shoot randomly and kill either town (mafia wins) or mafia (town wins). I don't win.
2:1:1 ->
I kill mafia (33%), mafia hits my vest -> 2:1 -> I'm confirmed scum and town lynch me -> town wins

In either case, other scum has the best odds at victory (up to 67%) by shooting me.

In either case, as scum I'll lose 100% of the time. If I am suggesting this, I can't be scum. I just can't.

But if you kill the scum (Creature), town may win it tomorrow if we discover who's the most likely mafia out of the 3 villagers. If you decide to get cute and kill me, town's chances drop significantly. So like, please don't do that or I'll be incredibly salty.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, I can't comprehend why town would still not trust me after everything I did and after I signed my victory away by advocating a Charlie lynch.

I'm disappointed.

[MiniDeathStar]

That's just silly. If we get there and I'm scum, both town and mafia would literally win 50% of the time if they no lynch, so they WILL no lynch and claim their best odds.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also, all of that was under the assumption I'm scum. But I'm not scum.

As town I know that either Charlie or Creature is the PR scum, and I know the PR scum (regardless which one) always loses to a Charlie lynch. So today that can be taken care of, and meanwhile we can collectively determine which one of the villagers is the most likely scum to help tomorrow's decision.

[MiniDeathStar]

That would have been easy if town just kept their trust in me. Idk how many more times I have to prove that literally everything I've been doing all game has come from a town mindset and utterly destructive to scum!me. Jfc it's super stressful to have to reassert myself over and over and over.

[MiniDeathStar]

Can we please focus on the villager scum today?

[MiniDeathStar]

And before you scums get ideas when I say villager (looking at you Creature), we are *not* lynching in the villagers today. We lynch Charlie, he pops Creature and we go into 2:1 LYLO tomorrow with a suspect we'll have already discussed.

[MiniDeathStar]

She came around saying she wants to hang Charl who will vengeshot Creature which will lose us the game, if both are town.

This is false. I'll explain it a third time.

Assume I am the SK. Assume one of the villagers (say Tiger moth) is the mafia.

Charlie vengekills Creature. I am the last remaining of the PRs and therefore confirmed scum. Night 3 starts. This is what could happen:

1. Tiger moth kills me. I kill a villager. Mafia wins. (67% if I'm not bulletproof)

2. Tiger moth kills me. I kill her. Town wins. (33% if I'm not bulletproof)

3. Tiger moth hits my bulletproof vest. I kill a villager. (67% if I'm bulletproof)
Day 4 starts as 1 vs 1 vs 1. Village and mafia force a no-lynch. Night 4 can go two ways: Tiger moth shoots me and I kill either town (50%, she wins) or her (50%, town wins). Either way I lose.

4. Tiger moth hits my bulletproof vest. I kill her. (33% if I'm bulletproof)
Day 4 starts as 2 vs 1, and both of them know I'm scum. They lynch me. Town wins.

In either of those cases, mafia has the best odds to win if they shoot at me. If they shoot a villager and not me, they would get a draw at best.

So if Charlie vengekills Creature,

I literally cannot win as scum

. Scum-me cannot be suggesting this.

[MiniDeathStar]

I literally outlined a plan that guarantees I lose if I'm scum. Tell me why you wouldn't follow it regardless of my alignment.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like seriously if town lynch me *now* instead of following a plan that guarantees I lose as scum, I'm pretty sure I'll never play mafia again. This is not an appeal to emotion because I doubt you care. I just don't know how else I could possibly persuade town to do what's best for them.

[MiniDeathStar]

Because for some utterly bizarro reason most of the village is convinced I'm the SK. I thought I had dispersed that idea by suggesting something that guarantees I'd lose if I am and explaining it over and over, and somehow it doesn't click with you.

Now I'm the SK for explaining how I'll lose as SK with what I'm suggesting? You have got to be fucking kidding me.

OH HEY I HAVE ANOTHER IDEA.

How about we lynch Charlie and have him vengekill me? Would that satisfy you? If Creature is scum, that's 33% town win 67% scum win (if he's not BP SK) and 67% town win 33% mafia win if he's BP SK. I don't like 33% but if you lynch me today it'll be 0%. I'll take what I can get.

[MiniDeathStar]

If you are town, I'm sory for not getting all player's role since the start of the same.

Yeah that's not an excuse. I didn't get their roles either but at least I provided you with rock solid logic and you dismissed it. Nothing would excuse this for me.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes we are. That's why I say let's lynch him and have him vengekill one of the PRs if he's town (his choice). Whoever he picks, the PR scum still loses no matter what.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw with Creture's suggestion to lynch a villager over Charloux (100% loss for PR!scum) I'm 95% convinced he's the PR!scum, 5% because I just can't explain villager scum shooting another villager in any way other than extremely bad play. But with what's happened today maybe I should stop overestimating players' skill.

So that was a trick question Jin? I kind of suspected that, I knew you wouldn't be this bad, haha.

[MiniDeathStar]

VOTE: Charloux

Jin, please don't instavote SDAVT tomorrow and carefully consider Tiger moth as another possibility. It's possible SD is just a very very bad villager and if you vote him then Tiger moth could quickhammer for her win. It's going to be a super difficult decision but I trust you guys would figure it out.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, if Creature is SK then I'm 80% confident Tiger moth is the mafia. Otherwise idk. I tracked her and she visited no one. Could be ninja SK but who takes track immunity over NK immunity? Like, think carefully about it.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and I feel like I have to say this, but if Charlie vengekills Creature the scum, then I'll be conftown tomorrow. Just in case Tiger moth decides to kill Jin and trick SDAVT into voting me.

[MiniDeathStar]

I suppose. Oh well, in either case, don't swear by the track result. I just think SDAVT is unlikely to be mafia given Ted's play and then the SD/bang exchange.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm sorry if that's throwing mud on my part but that's what my impression has been. You never took the initiative to do anything, you just kind of went along with the flow. Creature, Jin, lane and I diligently analysed things, wrote down a plan and evaluated possible outcomes. Your Day 2, barring some NKA at the beginning and the useful revelation on Klingon's target, has mostly been you holding onto your old read on Jin and speaking when spoken to. How many times did you care to comment on what we were doing or offer your insight? You never even voted.

Why do you need to question my motive? I'm looking for the villager scum and if it's a mafia I don't think it's Jin or SDAVT.

---

As for townies' trust, I said it would have been a lot easier if people took what I said at face value and discussing its merits instead of trying to find if I could be misleading them. I wouldn't have had to explain 4 times why Charlie is the best lynch today and we could've focused purely on scumhunting in the villager pool.

[MiniDeathStar]

As for townies' trust, I said it would have been a lot easier if people took what I said at face value and

discussed

its merits instead of trying to find if I could be misleading them.

Fixed.

[MiniDeathStar]

I know PR!scum will lose with that strategy, but if the PR!scum survives, town will most likely lose and PR!scum could still hope the other scum decides to not hit him.

That would be incredibly stupid. VT!Scum has 67% winrate by shooting PR!scum and (33% draw 17% win) by shooting a real VT.

[MiniDeathStar]

That's what I am worried, not about the scum that will lose.

See, the difference is that tomorrow I *would* win if I were scum and Charlie vengekilled you. But today I can't, so I want to lynch him today.

Plus, I'm not 100% certain that you Creature are the PR scum. I still think there's a chance the villager scum didn't kill Kop but Charlie did.

[MiniDeathStar]

What if i'm not online when i'm hammered?

I think twilight lasts until you submit a kill. My old site used vengeful roles and their lynch extended twilight to 24h when it was normally 3h.

[MiniDeathStar]

It's not. Not venging takes away from town's odds and gives it to the PR!scum's odds.

[MiniDeathStar]

(Because town has way lower odds to instawin via both scum gunning each other to death)

[MiniDeathStar]

What if i'm not online when i'm hammered?

I think twilight lasts until you submit a kill. My old site used vengeful roles and their lynch extended twilight to 24h when it was normally 3h.

Twilight here lasts until the mod comes online. So, it could be 5 minutes or a whopping 2 days.

Well I don't think that makes sense. If the mod is always online, vengefuls would be non-functional. I'm pretty sure he'll give you time to submit a kill.

[MiniDeathStar]

[MiniDeathStar]

Well, Creature, I hope you shoot right tonight because I'd hate to lose the game after everything I did.

MAFIA PLEASE SHOOT CREATURE WHEN I FLIP TOWN. THIS IS YOUR BEST SHOT AT THE WIN REGARDLESS OF WHOM CREATURE KILLS.

[MiniDeathStar]

As for you, Charlie, congratulations on making the most stupid move ever made this game. I'll make sure I never enter another game with you.

[MiniDeathStar]

Why are you assuming the SK actually claimed PR?

Because I don't think you're mafia. What does it matter what I think now?

Spoiler: Me irl

[MiniDeathStar]

It's just a game, why get so worked up?

Because I tried, really really really hard, to get people to listen to me for once, and the only one who did in the end was Agent Jin. It may seem like nothing to you, but considering how difficult it is for me to be taken seriously in general, it hurts a lot when even with my best efforts I can barely convince anybody.

Like, I'm legitimately hurt right now, and it's on you. But whatever, at this point I literally couldn't care less if this town loses or not. At least I can tease Creature for being a horrible shot post-game.

@Creature:

Could you please not add insult to injury? We'll know you're confirmed scum in a few hours. Own it up.

[MiniDeathStar]

P. Edit: Uhm.

I literally can't even.

[MiniDeathStar]

Sorry for insulting you Charlie. I had no idea you trolled me.

That was pretty mean.

@Creature:

I think the scum would kill me anyway. They have literally no reason to shoot at you, if you announce your shot and they survive I'll know it's them, otherwise I can potentially track them.

Of the 3 villagers I think SDAVT is the most likely SK so please shoot him. I'll track one of the others and report if I survive by some miracle.

[MiniDeathStar]

Wait, Creature. The SK *is* BP. If Charlie is mafia that really means he killed Kop and the SK failed to kill me yesterday. So not strongman.

Therefore Tiger moth is literally clear. If you shoot SDAVT and he's alive tomorrow, he's the scum. Otherwise it's Jin. Good game.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yeah, Jin and Tiger moth.

[MiniDeathStar]

The reason MDS is still alive was because i wanted to see how much time would pass before she realizes i am scum

Well I mean you got me there. I was sure you were scum before you claimed vengeful, but you ought to have known I'd want to test you eventually. The kill on Kop only made sense if you were scum or the villager scum was super bad.

Just to be clear: you *did* kill Kop, right?

[MiniDeathStar]

But like, we know the SK if BP because there was only one scum kill last night and I was protected. The SK definitely tried to kill me and failed, so they can't be strongman/ninja.

Which means Tiger moth is clear.

Which means SDAVT is the most likely next candidate.

Yes, Creature, please shoot him.


P.Edit: Lmao SDAVT. I'm mechanically clear at this point.

[MiniDeathStar]

I still think Moth is most likely SK.

Charlie killed Kop.

Who did Tiger moth kill? Not lane, because she knew you'd be shooting at him. Not Kop, because she's not that stupid to shoot in her pool. She had all the reasons in the world to shoot me, you, or Charlie, *especially* if she was strongman/ninja.

But she didn't, meaning she has to have killed nobody (fat chance) or tried to kill me (most likely). I am not dead, ergo she has to be bulletproof. But she is not, because she visited no one on night 1. Thus, she is literally clear.

The BP SK is the only way to explain the single death last night. Please don't shoot Tiger moth, she is confirmed town. Shoot SDAVT and lynch Jin if SDAVT dies as town.

[MiniDeathStar]

Creature, you still haven't explained the missing kill if the SK is strongman+ninja.

[MiniDeathStar]

She is clear, because otherwise the SK didn't kill anyone yesterday. Like, please trust me on this. I've been right all along so far, I wouldn't be wrong on this. If SDAVT dies as town, only then consider a ninja+strongman SK.

[MiniDeathStar]

And even then I don't think it's her because she had no reason to kill either Kop or lane.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm still a little pissed I got trolled and embarrassed that I had a meltdown for everyone to see. Charlie, that really was super mean of you. But I guess you just didn't know I'd overreact like that. I'm sorry if I made you feel bad.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw Creature? If SDAVT dies as town, I guess it's still possible that a ninja SK shot lane along with you, which would account for the missing kill. So like, don't totally rule Tiger moth out tomorrow in that case.

[MiniDeathStar]

(But only if he dies as town.)

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh my god.

So much flattery. I can't. I just.

*blushes ruby red and hides*