Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Hello, everyone! I'm implosion, and I'll be your IC for this game. More or less, what this means is that I'm here to help you adjust to playing mafia in the meta of mafiascum. My actions in this game are governed by the article Being a good IC, so while I may lie to you as scum, I will never lie to you while in a teaching role. So you can trust me when I talk about game theory, common tells, and so on - but you should put me under the same level of scrutiny as everyone else with regards to whether I'm town or scum.
The mafiascum.net wiki has a ton of useful information about the site, about common roles, common setups such as this game's Matrix6 setup, etc. I'd highly recommend perusing the wiki a bit - if you have any other questions, don't hesitate to ask me! Either way, I'll be talking about various relevant topics as they come up.
For a bit of information about me: I've been on MS for about 6 years now, playing on and off (but mostly on), so I have a lot of experience with the site and its meta. I've ICed once before, a very long time ago (in fact, I think that game was lost to a site crash in 2011-2012!) I generally try to be very transparent with what I'm thinking at any given time, so don't be surprised if I'm giving a lot of weak reads early and refining them later. I also tend to focus more than the average player on finding players to townread, rather than just finding scum - this is just a playstyle thing because I often find it easier to pick up on towntells than scumtells. If you ever want me to justify anything I've said, please don't hesitate to ask.
Games on MS often start with a random voting stage, or RVS (for other acronyms, see this wiki article). This is simply because in the early game, we lack information as a town, so we attempt to generate information by voting for players, reacting to those votes, judging each others' reactions, and so on.
On that note:
VOTE: thenewearth
Above all, remember - this is a game. Have fun!-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The general consensus on selfvoting is that you should basically never do it as town. In joking situations like this it's generally not the end of the world, but you're likely to earn some extra attention, so it's not advisable. If you are actually under pressure, you absolutely should not selfvote as town. It can accelerate a mislynch that may or may not have even happened in the first place, and denies the town the valuable information of an extra person being on the wagon, among other reasons. Scum will sometimes selfvote when they're at L-1 (one vote away from being lynched), if they see their lynch as inevitable, for much the same reason (it can deny the town information). But as town there are, with very few exceptions, never really any good reason for it.
@shannon, hello.
@AstralFlare: imp-losion isn't even in standard anymore so you don't get to complain :p.
I'm also willing to weakly call Chrimi town for now, but only very weakly. I'd also say AstralFlare is slightly town.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The read on Chrimi is essentially based on tone. The read on you is because your jump onto the Chrimi wagon is a tad more conspicuous than the moves I'd expect scum to make at this stage of the game.AstralFlare wrote:I'm curious as to how you were able to get a read (however mild) on Chrimi and I after two or three posts each. Is this purely based off tone?
Vaguely scummy vibes from Penguin. But nothing concrete. Still,Jibs wrote:Implosion, do you have any reads on stuff that was posted since you were here?
Unvote
VOTE: Penguin-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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@Penguin: there are two really convenient ways to link posts in case you don't know them:
Code: Select all
[post]24[/post] [post=24]Blah blah blah[/post]
The former is useful if you just want to link the number, the latter lets you put in whatever text you want for the link.
The penguin scumread is also tonal, based specifically on his vote moreso than on the post that came after it.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Yes. Again though, it's a very weak read.In post 41, AstralFlare wrote:Implosion: To rephrase, are you saying the tone which he used when he voted me was scummy?
It's normal because we don't have very much information to go off of right now; there aren't any interesting interactions or particularly noteworthy actions that have been taken yet, so in order to generate content, I'm trying to figure out what I can based on tone or other signs that emerge early.Rocnix wrote:Implosion has attributed most his readings to people's tone. Is this normal for early mafia, or at least the random vote stage?
Not alignment indicative.Rocnix wrote:By the way, what does NAI stand for?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Are you actually surprised at this? Historically whenever I've seen people selfvote in RVS they drew scrutiny for it. Well at least the one example I can think of.Chrimi wrote:Are you guys seriously taking my first post's RVS joking self-vote as somehow scummy?
Contradictions aren't actually as good of a scumtell as you'd think they are in cases like this. To discern a town post from a scum post, you have to discern whether the post was motivated by town intent or scum intent. A contradiction like Chrimi mentioning that she has multiple alts then only mentioning one of them is extremely unlikely to be scum motivated - scum would not have motivation to intentionally lie in that way, both because it's very unlikely that hiding that extra alt account's information is actually going to help them as scum and because people may notice the discrepancy and call them out (but moreso the first). It's not indicative of Chrimi's alignment because it's far more likely that Chrimi simply misspoke or, as she said, simply didn't consider the hydra worthy of mentioning.0x40 wrote:I honestly can't tell if you seriously believe in what you're saying right now or if you're just trying to set up a strawman here. Nobody is voting you just for having alts. Nobody is saying alts are against the rules. I'm voting you for contradicting yourself and then refusing to give the username of your other alt.
It's kind of an overused concept. Reaction testing is a lot more potent in face-to-face or IRC mafia where you can get an immediate reaction to something and judge it quickly, whereas on a forum the typical IRC reaction test doesn't work because scum have as much time as they want to craft a response. On forum mafia the phrase reaction test is more often used to refer to someone intentionally saying something that they don't believe, or something that they think is incorrect, or pushing more strongly on a read than their confidence in the read would actually back up. Each of these is done for the sake of seeing how people react, but again, it's a different kind of reaction.In post 77, PenguinPower wrote:
@implosionIn post 76, shannon wrote:a reaction test
I've seen this a couple of times. I understand what a reaction test is in terms of testing someone's reaction. How is it actually used/intended to be used in forum mafia?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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To me Chrimi's talk of alts is uninteresting. A more interesting post is this:
This reads to me as potentially scum-motivated in how defensive it is. The question was why she isn't voting; saying that "not voting at this stage isn't scummy" doesn't actually answer that question, it just deflects it. The second sentence sort of implies the answer of "it's page 3 and there's not enough for me to be confident on to vote," but if that's how she feels she simply could have answered the question that way.In post 58, Chrimi wrote:Because.. Not voting at this stage isn't scummy?
You guys do realize we're on page 3 right?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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IbelieveChrimi is at L-2 but I'm not certain; I'd recommend not voting her until we get another vote count.
I may as well explain this aspect of site meta now as well: lynching Chrimi now would be bad because it's so early in the day (so we have very little information), but also because we wouldn't be giving her a chance to claim. At MS, the typical procedure is to put someone at L-1 (that is, one vote away from lynch) and then instead of hammering (voting the final vote), someone declares "intent to hammer" and asks for a claim. This is to prevent accidentally hammering a power role, especially one with useful information (like a cop with night results). It of course has the side effect that scum can sometimes claim power roles and still live, but the claiming post itself is often a very useful source of alignment-revealing information. I've had at least one game in memory where someone I was scumreading claimed cop, and there was a lot of hemming and hawing over whether we should still lynch them, which we did (they flipped scum). So it's not like claiming a power role automatically means we should take the pressure off, but especially on day one it usually will result in moving the lynch elsewhere. If they claim vanilla townie, the lynch will usually continue (but not always, if people change their minds).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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People going afk isn't usually a big problem, because of replacements. There will always be lurkers who don't post nearly as much as they should but you kind of just need to learn to deal with them, either by reading them through what little they post, or pressuring them until they post more, or putting them off until later. And if some people aren't active near deadline, the active players usually loosen up on who they're willing to lynch to get a lynch through. Although I actually did see, in a recent game of mine for the first time that I've seen on MS (I think), a town fail to lynch anyone on d1. You don't want that to happen. I was scum so I didn't really care, I was sort of just basking in the chaos around me.
Day length depends on a lot of factors. I think the prevailing mindset among good players on the site is that towns on MS often spend more time than is necessary in early days. Once there's a consensus on who to lynch it shouldn't take a long time to actually push the lynch through. The real problem isn't people going afk necessarily, as if someone is too inactive then they'll be replaced. The bigger problem is that if days last too long without concrete new information being generated from things like alignment flips and roleclaims, towns will often lose motivation and suffer a lot as a result. That's not to say that we should lynch this early though .
I'd say a typical d1 lasts anywhere from half of the deadline to ~a day before deadline. Before then it's relatively rare (but it happens) for a wagon to form with enough support. Near the end of the day people tend to conglomerate more because they want to see a flip. It's not necessarily a bad thing if a lynch happens before then, though.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Yes, questions are generally to try to find scum, but that doesn't mean that if someone asks you a question they already think you're scum. To clarify my point, the way you reacted to that post showed that your first instinct was not to answer the question, it was to defend against it, and that potentially betrays a mindset where defending against potential attacks is more important than expediting others' scumhunting by answering questions.In post 84, Chrimi wrote:implosion, I shouldn't have to explain this to anexperienced player, but here you go anyways:
Here in Mafia, when people ask questions, it's generally to try and help find scum. So I usually answer questions with the assumption that they think whatever action they're questioning me about is scummy.
VOTE: implosion for pretending you don't already know this.
Especially in the context of a newbie game, it's very silly to assume that being asked a question means that you're being scumread by the questioner. In this case it's obvious that you were being scumread (since AstralFlare was voting you), but that's not the point of what I said. The point of what I said is that your first reaction to the question essentially appeared to be that of preventative damage control. Mafia is certainly partially about defending yourself, and it's obvious that AstralFlare was scumhunting; the point I was making is subtler than what you make it out to be in 83. I find it a bit odd that your first instinct is that I'm fabricating my understanding of the game of mafia and not that you misunderstood what I was saying; I as scum would not pretend that I don't know simple aspects of the game.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Once again, not what I'm saying at all (in fact, I explicitly said the opposite of this).In post 86, Chrimi wrote:So then town shouldn't defend themselves?
Mm, I'm going to go ahead and say you're wrong.
The first point was a general comment on what you were saying about mafia as a game in general; the second was a comment on the specific situation. Again, I think this is pretty obvious.Chrimi wrote:
"Why would you assume you were being scumread???"In post 85, implosion wrote: Yes, questions are generally to try to find scum, but that doesn't mean that if someone asks you a question they already think you're scum.
Especially in the context of a newbie game, it's very silly to assume that being asked a question means that you're being scumread by the questioner.
"I mean, it was obvious you were being scumread, but..."In this case it's obvious that you were being scumread (since AstralFlare was voting you), but that's not the point of what I said.
Man, contradictions in the same post. This is astounding!
You're right, I don't. And, again, I've explicitly said I don't. This isn't what AstralFlare was asking you about in the post in question!Chrimi wrote:implosion- you can't honestly tell me you (as an experienced player) think the entire playerlist reading my meta because I self-voted RVS, and assuming that because I don't want to give the names of every one of my alts- is actually useful in some way, right?
Actually, maybe you can, considering you just asked "Why would you defend yourself as town???"
He was asking you about why you weren't voting yet. Which is a totally legitimate question, which deserved an answer.
I have never once agreed with any of the questioning of your alts, and in fact spent half a post explaining why I see it as irrelevant. I don't know why you're trying to conflate the two.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I'm at work so I'm not really reading everything right now (I haven't even looked beyond page 5 yet) but this stuck out to me:
I very much like calling this interaction as a distraction; I realized as I was going to sleep tonight that I probably wasn't really getting anything useful out of this line of discussion with Chrimi, but got sucked into a pretty significant back-and-forth that really doesn't have a ton of useful info. I think Jibs calling it as a distraction and not trying to read into it is a decent towntell. I'll figure out what I really think of Chrimi later as well.Jibs wrote:The implosion-Chrimi fight felt like a huge distraction, but I think the game is progressing nicely otherwise. I should be back tonight for all you North Americans.
I've mostly skimmed so I'll have more substantive content later, probably after work.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Probably gonna make several posts here. I personally find it a bit easier to read/digest than just catching up over several pages at once and posting a giant wall.
Even if this is true, there's a very important distinction between "harmful to town" and "indicative of scum." I don't think that hiding an alt is really particularly harmful to the town, but even if we grant that it is, it doesn't follow that it's scummy behavior. Most players aren't going to consciously make a decision after entering a game of "hm, I'm scum and I don't want them to know my meta, I guess I'll hide my alts." It's much, much more common and likely that someone would just hide an alt because they don't want people knowing that they have the alt for out-of-game reasons. I'd doubt extremely strongly that Chrimi or really anyone here would make a conscious, game-specific decision to withhold that kind of information that isn't even all0x40 wrote: Hiding alts is more harmful to town than it is to scum, because it makes it harder to get accurate reads. I guess it could be argued that that information also helps scum get pr reads, but the benefits of town having that information far outweighs the drawbacks of scum having that information. Hiding an alt is almost strictly an anti-town play, and is therefore scummy.thatuseful to the town (meta is not the end-all be-all).
Not everything that happens in a game is alignment-motivated - so when you say:
it's based on a false premise that hiding that information has to be based on the motivation of trying to win this game, rather than motivated by out-of-game reasons or in this case not really motivated by anything in particular (I really have a hard time doubting Chrimi when she says that she simply didin't find listing the hydra account relevant).The only legitimate reason for town to hide information is if the information is more beneficial to scum than to town, which is obviously not the case here.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Eh. Chrimi honestly hasn't really done anything that pings me strongly in either direction yet; 58 still feels slightly off butJibs wrote:implosion: I congratulate you on actually getting Chrimi to say something about alignment. Did you learn anything from the long exchange which happened after that? Have your other reads evolved?shrug.Her reactions to this discussion (essentially being indignant) aren't really strongly alignment indicative to me. They feel like someone who believes they are right but that doesn't mean town. I am getting a townread on you from your reaction to it (as I mentioned) and I still think AstralFlare is town. I want to get a read on 0x40 from it but the main thing I'm seeing from him is a playstyle; although I strongly disagree with the content of his push on Chrimi I'm not convinced it's scum motivatedyet.It is quite possible - the line of thinking of "Chrimi is withholding information that could potentially help town, therefore she's scum" is lacking to me, making a big thing out of something very minor and in my opinion irrelevant that was said.
And here you go misrepresenting me again :/. It wasn't a "serious case." It was a casual observation. I didn't vote you with it, it was just something that struck me as off. It's not like I saw that post and said "oh my god scum caught on page 3, gg." You're really making a mountain out of a molehill here.Chrimi wrote:implosion attempting a serious case on me before page 5 is asinine,
Again I don't really see your reaction here as particularly scummy but you are really misrepresenting or misunderstanding the things that I'm saying.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Alright, so let's make this whole alt thing crystal clear.
There are plenty of players on this site who have alts. Those people have many reasons for those alts but the most relevant here is that people sometimes make alt accounts for the purpose of playing games with a different style or without association to their typical meta. In the latter case, people often keep those accounts hiddenin general, not just hiding them from a specific game.
Chrimi and thenewearth not wanting to say who their alt accounts are is, I would say without a shadow of a doubt, not for reasons that are related to their alignments. It's simply for the reason that those accounts were made for the purpose of not being associated with their main accounts. They're not trying to hide information from the town of this game for the sake of subterfuge, they're most likely hiding information from the entire site for personal reasons that they aren't obligated to share if they don't want to. They're under no obligation to explain why hiding that information is beneficial to the town of this game, because their hiding of that information is almost certainly entirely unrelated to this game.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The points you make against him are decent. He's an alright candidate for scum but not particularly solidly so. I don't really have any scumreads at this point except for 0x40 contingent on his play in the near future. I'd say {AstralFlare, you, shannon and thenewearth} are town in no particular order right now but all of those are subject to change and my reads aren't particularly strong even for being this early in the game (shannon is because of the reaction test which I think looks decently town, tne is gut for now based on tone near the end of the exchange with 0x40). Chrimi I've talked about, Rocnix is another decent candidate for scum I think. Her more recent reads list has a tone of IIoA (information instead of analysis) to me. Out of 8 players she gives 3 reads, and the other 5 are essentially straight descriptions of their play that don't really mean anything.Jibs wrote:How do you feel about PP? You are still voting him if my notes are right.
Also just as an FYI Rocnix - NAI is typically used to refer to an action that someone takes or an event in the game (i.e., "I think shannon's reaction test is NAI for her"), not to describe an overall read on a player. Most people will call them null reads (as opposed to townreads or scumreads)
While I agree with your first sentence here strongly (and this is something that I wind up explaining my stance on in like half of the games I play >.>) I don't agree that having unflipped associations is part of being town on d1. It's a playstyle thing. I won't usually have any unflipped associations on d1 - I'll occasionally (very infrequently, because I don't think these things are really feasible to pick out) see something that looks vaguely like a scum connection between two unflipped players but I typically ignore them just because statistically the odds that I'm correct about them are extremely low.Jibs wrote:Using unflipped associations to make reads is terrible play which rarely works. Having unflipped associations is just part of being town. If you post your unflipped associations, and especially the reasoning behind them, it makes you easier to read. I also wonder why you didn't just say this at the time.
In terms of the actual point you're making, essentially I think this may just be you imposing your playstyle or the way you view the game onto penguin. That said I do sort of agree that Penguin takes on a conciliatory tone in his response to you here which is a bit odd. Kind of. Idk I'm about to go to sleep so I might just be spouting nonsense at this point.
I'm notJibs wrote:But yes, my instinct is to call people bad at mafia and yell at them. Isn't everyone like that?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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From now on any short posts that are me speaking as IC will be specifically marked as such; any longer posts, I will use the same method as the previous post (IC stuff above the line, non-IC stuff below the line). This is not an IC post.
FTR I really do strongly disagree with the characterization of Chrimi as an anti-town VI. She's providing a lot of reasoned content, and just because you disagree with that content does not make her a VI, or anti-town. This refers to both AstralFlare and 0x40. And I really do think in both of these cases it is mostly just disagreement.
You seem to view a lot of things in black and white: hiding information can only be done by scum, being anti-town can only be done by scum, and now the mere mention of a policy lynch in a post that isn't even advocating it is the scummiest thing yet in the game. I'm curious to see if this same tone pervades your reads list - there's a lot of nuance in the game of mafia, because all of the black-and-white scumtells were phased out back a decade ago when scum realized that they were black-and-white scumtells and that they shouldn't do them (and when towns realized that they aren't actually black and white because townies do them sometimes too), and any black-and-white towntells were phased out when scum realized they could just emulate them.In post 245, 0x40 wrote:
And finally something that's actually really alignment indicative is said. A lynch for reasons other than trying to lynch scum is only nice for scum. You are the scummiest right now by far in my opinion, and we're not policy lynching anyone this game for any reason. That will only benefit scum.In post 243, Jibs wrote:nice to policy-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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@Jibs
I think if I had to take a guess atm I'd say 0x40 is town. The way in which he's being stubborn seems a bit more likely to come from town to me. The fact that he kept being obstinate after pressure was put on him shows he values that opinion more than he values not being pressured, which is likely town. It could be scum who just held to their laurels but I'd lean town on him atm.
AstralFlare is still a townread but probably one who I should re-evaluate, although not right now. Different people will always perceive the game differently and so disagreeing on, say, whether something is alignment-indicative isn't really reason to scumread someone in and of itself. I'll read Chrimi's case later when I'm fully awake.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I mean, this is sort of true. But you ignore the things I've done that haven't been following at all (notably both of my votes). I'm reconsidering you because there was a case on you that I haven't read yet and it's possible that case has substance. Would you rather I be obstinate, and unwilling to change my opinions?AstralFlare wrote:Implosion as very weak scumlean. I don't know. On reading his ISO, his recent posts seem waffly. 182 in particular. It is flippy floppy sit-on-the-fence, with him looking unwilling to really commit to anything, while simultaneously trying to reserve the "it's late and I'm sleepy" backdoor if he gets called out. In fact, after another readthrough I seem to notice he's just following the flow of the game, following the majority, lynching someone when others do, townleaning someone when everyone else does. Like right now, he says he's re-evaluating me, after Chrimi voiced her opinion that I was scum. His posts thus far have also been more I agree/I disagree. There's a lack of question marks. Not sure if this is a playstyle thing, but even if it is I think he should be more active in scumhunting.
I'm willing to accept the characterization of my play as waffly. It's just a byproduct of me not being confident in things yet.
As for Rocnix's case:
I wouldn't say I was scumreading her at that point. I was suspicious enough that I would have voted her had she not been at L-2, but I thought there was a decent chance that her response to me would diffuse my suspicion.In posts 78, 79, and 80, Implosion scumreads but does not vote Chrimi (who is at that point at L-2), and explains why we should wait before voting to lynch her. Regardless of whether Chrimi turned out town or scum, Implosion can say he acted correctly.
Two things here. One, defending yourself is a part of the game, and does itself move the game forward because it helps others form reads on you. Two, I personally as a player tend to focus on defending myself whenever there are any existing attacks against me that I haven't refuted. I've had games as town where I've been just completely unable to get into the game and wound up lurking as a result, and the only way that I really managed to stop lurking was when there was pressure on me. I just don't like being incorrectly read as town.In 84, Implosion tells Chrimi why her accusation against him doesn't make sense. He's defending himself rather than moving the game forward.
I disagree that town is more or less convinced that she's a frustrated townie (or was at that point) - at that point (at least I think at that point) both AF and 0x40 were scumreading and pushing her.In 156 Implosion takes the opportunity do dismiss his fight with Chrimi as irrelevant, now that town is more or less convinced that she's a frustrated townie.
I mean, a townread would accomplish the same thing here. I also don't think I would be particularly scared of giving a full scumread on him here if I were scum - he wasn't really being arbitrarily OMGUS-y, he was tunneling Chrimi for the alt thing.Implosion gives null reads on 0x40 and Chrimi. Implosion corrects 0x40's assumprions (who is only at L-3 but is definitely not popular), but reads his play as NAI. 0x40's OMGUS behavior means that, if Implosion voted for him, Implosion could expect a kneejerk reaction, so the null reads are again the safest response.-
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Read Chrimi's case on AF. Most of the points she makes are decent in the sense that they're pretty strong evidence of him being scum if she's right about how she's interpreting them, but it looks to me like Chrimi is interpreting pretty much everything AF has said in a scummy light, or like she's assuming worst intentions. In particular calling post 59 a misrepresentation and her interpretation of him saying "Other SEs, what do you think of this" both strike me as looking at the worst possible reason he could have said those things - the former to me is not even really a representation at all, just an opinion, and the latter obviously could also just be AF wanting a second opinion. The strongest point she makes is that he called her scummy for not voting but didn't call PP scummy for not contributing content, but his response is reasonable and again just makes me think that it's a difference in how they're interpreting the game (like Chrimi said she views questions as implying scumreads, while it sounds like AF doesn't).
So I'd still call him town. I see where he was coming from on the Chrimi read and I also like him 180ing and now calling her town since the reasons for his scumread have faded, so I'd expect him to re-evaluate her if he's town.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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And now I want to call rocnix townier. That's a really, really weird 180 to make if she's scum. She just got a case on me and I think it's not that hard to rebut what I said if she's scum and wants to keep pushing.
I'm actually ironically gonna join the tne wagon for now, I know I called her gut town just a little earlier but I think some pressure on her right now will be beneficial - her unexplained vote on 0x40 is a bit troubling, particularly if it's the obvious justification of him pushing on the alt stuff which imo is a bit one-dimensional to push on without further explanation. She hasn't really said anything of substance in the past couple of days. She's implied some stuff wrt shannon but never really explained it or followed up on it, and has been getting bogged down in the 0x40-Chrimi interaction even after she pointed out that it's probably best to ignore it.
Unvote
VOTE: thenewearth
I think I'm starting to get a better handle on reads this game. I actually think Rocnix's push on me was somewhat town and her backing off has cemented that it looks to me like it's coming from a genuine interest in finding scum. AF is still town, Jibs is still town, 0x40 is likely town. Chrimi is moderately townish at this point as well I think, or at the very least the way she's been playing the game is enough for me to not really be interested in lynching her today. shannon still has a little bit of towncred but we'll see how the game plays out because I'm not confident on her in any capacity yet. Penguin/tne are where I think I'll focus my efforts for a bit unless I see good reason to look elsewhere. I am interested in what tne was looking at with respect to shannon.-
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0x40, you really need to cut out calling Chrimi a VI. It's starting to get a bit beyond rude and frankly you're just wrong, she isn't a VI. She's playing fine. She just has a playstyle that's oblique to what you seem to be used to. All you're doing by repeating things like this:
is insulting Chrimi and distracting the town from focusing on important issues like, y'know, who's scum.0x40 wrote:Let's just agree to disagree on this one. I don't think convincing a VI that they're a VI is really worth the effort.
So let's cut out with the insults and focus on scumhunting.
@0x40: with regards to your objections to policy lynching, I just remembered that you posted this...
which is literally a justification for why it's okay to policy lynch VIs. Do you not consider this to have anything to do with policy lynching? What is it if not advocating a policy lynch to say that we ought to lynch someone because they're a VI even if it doesn't make them more likely to be scum?0x40 wrote:A VI getting mislynched is a lot less bad than someone who knows how to play the game getting mislynched, so you being a VI is a valid reason to lynch you even though a VI has the same chance of being scum as everyone else here, as you won't be of as much use to town compared to a non-VI player.
I somewhat like shannon's posts on this page. In particular 312 sounds like a townie genuinely frustrated, especially since it was effectively a double post, so it's not like she could be scum who was concerned that they hadn't said anything in too long. So I don't think I'm interested in pursuing her today.
Still most interested in tne/pp.-
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Yeah - it is a very, very different beast. I also played a lot of face-to-face resistance with my college friend group, and it is a lot more of a sort of direct mindscrew where nothing makes any sense and you have to gauge things in the moment as a resistance member, or you have to focus on not giving behavioral tells as a spy. Forum mafia gives a different kind of thrill for me - because of all of the effort, it's a lot more rewarding to have been correct about a divisive read as town, or to fool a town as scum. It is really easy for it to get tiring.Jibs wrote:That brings me to my final point--I'm pretty sure this is my last game of forum mafia. It eats up a lot of time and energy, but it doesn't provide what I got from face-to-face Avalon. Nothing against you guys, you've all been great, but I'm pretty tired of this game.
If anyone is interested in my town meta, one excellent little piece of it is a large normal that I just completed that shannon was in. By two real-life days into the game, I had 11 townreads out of the 18 other players in the game.
This game is starting to stall out a tad - we'll see after the weekend if it's just because of schedules, or because different people are waiting on more posts from specific players, or other reasons. Hopefully it's just that people in this game are more active on weekdays.-
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Yes, and I can probably point to countless instances of it in games I've played. In practice, like I've been saying for this entire discussion, it winds up being a playstyle thing; more cautions players will tend to announce L-1 votes (or sometimes even L-2 votes). Less cautious players will often not announce it, for one reason or another. It's certainly never a problem to announce when your vote puts someone at L-1 but it's not really considered a site norm to always announce it (maybe in newbie games, but it still doesn't mean it's a terrible thing not to do). Typically caution is expected to be exercised by the person joining the wagon to ensure that they aren't accidentally hammering.0x40 wrote:Do you still think she's not a VI? Is putting someone at L-1 without declaring that it's L-1 something that players that know how to play the game would do?
This is sort of arguing semantics; if that is part of the reasoning for a lynch, then it will be a policy lynch to the degree that it is driven by the target being a VI rather than thinking that they are scum. Again, things aren't black and white; lynches aren't just policy lynches or not-policy lynches.0x40 wrote:I don't think that lynching a VI for being a VI would be a policy lynch unless that was the primary reason.
I picked that game for a couple reasons; one, it's fresh on my mind because I've been playing it for the past month and a half and it just ended, two, jibs mentioned my meta with regards to me having a lot of townreads. I wasn't trying to use that meta to argue that my reads are likely correct, sorry if I misspoke - I was just giving an example as town where I gave a lot of townreads on d1. I agree with shannon that it was a very different game; I was simply citing it to make that one point.AF wrote:Eh. I don't like this post. For one thing you're cherry picking a game for us to look at, where you've had a reasonably good prediction rate, at least for this early in the game. For another thing you're appealing to ethos. Sure, you might be correct this game as well, but it's different players and a different setup now.-
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I've always disliked this reasoning. Scum are perfectly capable of reading the game themselves and figuring out which townies are likely to be townread, and seeing who no one scumreads. Scum have various reasons for killing any given person, either because they're being townread or because scum think they're a PR or for psychological games. So the cost of giving townreads is fairly low, because it isn't really giving scum that much useful information that they can't glean themselves.In post 343, thenewearth wrote:Yeah because making it easier for scum to NK the towniest player is the greatest contribution
bzzt
Meanwhile the benefit is great: it can help clarify your stance on the game, which makes it easier for others to scrutinize your reads and enables better back-and-forth discourse, and it makes you easier to read because you're taking more justified stances. It provides more links between people so that once there's flipped scum, we can analyze reads more effectively to see who is a likely partner, whereas if you list two scumreads out of the seven other players and never comment on the other five we will never get this information for you if one of those five players flips scum.
I agree that you can make a concise case on a player but your case on 0x40 is just so simple; he's pushing a player he perceives as weak, so he's gunning for a mislynch on the weak player. That doesn't imply scum at all, and there's a lot more nuance to his play and his push than simply "pushing a weak player."-
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Anyway (speaking as IC) as I mentioned earlier, no one should hammer thenewearth yet. If someone else wants to vote her, they should announce intent to hammer and give her a chance to claim, so that we can evaluate her claim and decide what to do from there. If no one wants to hammer, that's fine as well; we can continue through the day and the wagon might dissolve and another might form. Just because a wagon reaches L-1, by no means does that mean that person is getting lynched; I've seen games with several L-1 wagons in day one alone.-
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This is an interesting way of looking at things but isn't typically how I like to approach day one in particular; we have so little information that not wanting to vote with someone because you think they're scum just seems silly to me. Votecount analysis is useful later but not at this point.Jibs wrote:Part of it is that Chrimi seems really nonchalant about voting with her top scum, and AF is quite nonchalant about voting with imp, who he is suspicious of. I also worry about imp's vote, since it feels like he adjusted his reads so that he wouldn't have to vote with his top scum. Finally, I agree that it would be very weird for Rocnix to play this way as scum, but this feels like a weird game to begin with.
tne's string of posting just now is pretty good. I think I prefer to swing a PP wagon right now; I really dislike the way he's posturing around the tne wagon. He called her null and then started criticizing things she was doing but never really committed, either to calling her scum or voting her or declaring intent to hammer. It looks to me like he doesn't want to impede the tne wagon, but doesn't want to appear committed to it or responsible for it in the event that it is hammered. This is further bolstered by his most recent post in which he asks Jibs why he's so worried about hammering, while Penguin doesn't offer to hammer himself or really give a strong sense of where he's at with regards to his opinion on tne yet. Overall the way he's playing around the wagon feels like scum who wants a mislynch but doesn't want to be on it.
tne overall reads as having a lot of genuine conviction, which could come from scum who thinks that 0x40 is town who does look objectively scummy, but It's still some amount townish. I think it is a bit more likely that she is just town who isn't sure why people don't see what she sees.
Unvote
VOTE: Penguin
I'll of course re-evaluate my townreads more later as well. But penguin is also the only player who has yet to really do anything that strikes me significantly as town.-
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I mean, in 335, you very heavily imply that you find tne's behavior scummy, asking "it's scummy to do this, right?"PP wrote:Why would I call her scum, vote, or declare an intent to hammer on my null read - who was a null read due to not providing any information - who had still not provided any information? I am still waiting for something substantive, but I'm not going to be responsible for a PR outing or a mislynch on someone who I don't even had a weak scum lean on. I criticized her play because it's not helpful, but it's NAI at this point - with 5 days still remaining.
The fact that you implicitly called her behavior scummy and then your next two posts continued being very critical, to me, imply that you were scumreading her, not nullreading her.
And this is what I see as scummy: you keep saying that you nullread her. Yet you've spent most of your time recently up until I attacked you criticizing her posting, and are even criticizing my reasons for townreading her and calling them into question. Those aren't the actions that I feel like you'd be spending most of your time on if you were really town with a nullread on tne; I feel like you would be more interested in trying to determine tne's alignment, or the alignments of those on the wagon, or something like that. Jabbing at tne's play and questioning townreads on her while you have a nullread on her and don't want to apply any additional pressure is more or less wasted effort, and the fact that you were specifically criticizing my reasons for townreading her but haven't been calling anyone's scumreads of her into question just doesn't seem consistent with your claim of having a nullread.
I mean, just because the wagon is at L-1, even with intent, doesn't mean you can't impede it if you did think tne was town. But this is a moot point.PP wrote:I don't want to be responsible for it at all. I didn't need - or have the chance - to impede, because the intent was placed and removed before I had a chance to see it. I did question that move as nothing occurred between when it was placed and removed. I also didn't see anything wrong with having tne at L-1 because then she may finally post something.
For me I really do see it as genuine conviction - the issue is whether or not it's town-motivated. I really do think she is either town who has conviction that 0x40 is scum, or scum who has conviction that 0x40 deserves to be lynched for his play.PP wrote:I think it's townish because you want to see it as townish. I don't see genuine conviction.
Towntelling isn't just about contributing; nothing you've said so far has really read to me as particularly indicative of town, whereas I can cite things (and have cited things in my ISO) for all of those players you listed that I believe are indicative of town. Even if you're town, in what way is it ridiculous of me to have those reads? It'd simply mean that more of my reads are incorrect.PP wrote:Really? 0x40 has done things that strike you significantly as town? Rocnix? Tne? Their contributions have been significantly town? To call their contributions townish, and to say that I have done nothing townish, is ridiculous.
When I get a bit of time I'll probably relook over your full ISO and see what I think of it.-
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I am curious about this though - were you just randomly meta-ing her?In post 394, PenguinPower wrote:Alright...tne is town. 1723 just wrapped up. Exact same play style. Can you please start participating a bit more? Your behavior there got you lynched D1.-
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I do want to re-evaluate you. I still feel like 0x is probably town a bit more strongly. But I mean, I'dJibs wrote:I'm kind of stuck in confbias mode on imp right now. Before I opened the thread I was thinking "if imp digs in his heels on pp then he's mafia, but if he reevaluates then he is also mafia". I'm suspicious of the fact that he never reevaluated his townreads on me and 0x40--players who came into the game very strong and then dropped off rather conveniently.liketo re-evaluate all my reads - it's just a matter of time. I'm in my third week at a new job and am still settling in to an extent to my new apartment, so I don't have a ton of free time - certainly enough to play, but not enough to re-evaluate my reads quite as much as I'd like to ideally. It is also d1 and re-evaluating reads is usually more useful on later days when there are flips for context.
Uh...PP wrote:I didn't say anything about your reads being ridiculous...though maybe your reading comprehension?
Literally my calling their contributions townish is me giving townreads on them and my calling things you've done scummy and not calling your contributions townish is me giving a scumread on you. That's literally what reads are...PP wrote:To call their contributions townish, and to say that I have done nothing townish, is ridiculous.-
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Actually scratch me being more confident on 0x than on you. I'd say you're two of my weaker reads at this point. I think if I go with my gut at this moment the people I have no interest in lynching today are shannon, af, and chrimi.
0x's jibs scumread actually feels more off to me than his chrimi read. It feels similarly like he's just latching on to something and pushing it, but it feels more like he's doing it because he's realizing people aren't interested in the chrimi push or like he feels like he's supposed to have more than one scumread at this point. It just doesn't feel like it evolved naturally.-
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Not really speaking as IC but this is advice that's generally applicable to a lot of games:
We are starting to close in on deadline (4 days away with a replacement pending) so it might be worth it to start consolidating votes soon, within the next couple of days. It's at the point where we're not going to get a ton out of continuing the day, and I think we're going to be better off if we end the day soonish. I think I mentioned it earlier but a lot of the stronger players on MS are of the opinion that towns often tend to drag days out longer than necessary, which can lead to apathy. This is especially true d1 when we're dragging out the day with no flipped information.
Looking a bit more at 0x he went from slight town to "scummiest by far" on jibs in the span of 8 posts and jibs mentioning the possibility of a policy lynch in passing. Actually,
@0x40: is there any reason other than the "nice to policy" post from Jibs that caused this shift from you between 237 and 245? Because you had been calling him town, then suddenly call him the scummiest player in the game in 245 seemingly for one thing, and then six posts later in 251 you suddenly have a plethora of reasons for scumreading Jibs that seemingly weren't influencing you at the time when you posted 237. You heavily cite his reads list seeming overconfident, but that same reads list had already been posted when you made post 237, yet you were calling him slight town at that point. I'm curious about the mental process behind your read on Jibs forming in that span of time.-
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To some extent I have trouble believing that you put this much weight into this point alone, about him mentioning the possibility of a policy lynch, given that I think an honest reading of what he said made it clear that he had no actual interest in policy lynching you, and even if he did, I sincerely doubt that an expression of interest in policy lynching is highly correlated enough with being scum to justify such a large swing in your read of him.In post 421, 0x40 wrote:I think that reason alone was big enough to justify that.
It just doesn't seem natural that this single point would be enough to completely overhaul your read. That's a very one-dimensional view of the game of mafia for someone who says that they have a lot of experience and who isn't hesitating to call other players bad at the game.
I don't really mind the 0x lynch at this point. Again if I had more time I'd look more into everything but eh. Motivation to re-look over everything is hard to muster on d1. Hopefully, Drone will have time to weigh in today at least a little before we wind up lynching.-
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@Drone, welcome - feel free to take the game at your own pace. It's nice if you have a general idea of what's happened so far but it's often difficult as a replacement to get a strong sense of reads from what's happened in the game so far since you didn't get to experience it in real time, so it's fine to focus on getting reads from whatever happens from now.
@0x40, the biggest reason that delaying a claim is anti-town is because it stifles discussion; many people are waiting on your claim to be able to continue their line of thought in the game, and we don't really care that you say it's anti-town for you to claim because we don't know your alignment. Someone is going to be run up and forced to claim; the fact that it's you doesn't make it anti-town to claim, even if you are town.
PP also brings up a good point re: the weekend. This game stagnated very hard last weekend. We don't want it stagnating as deadline approaches and we have a looming L-1 wagon with no other real wagons, especially if 0x claims a power role and we decide to unvote him.
I'm also going to push for a claim asap; it's very clear with 4 people voting and 3 more (Chrimi, Drone, myself) expressing suspicion that 0x is going to be the lynch today unless something significant changes out of nowhere, which is unlikely to happen at this point from anything but a claim.-
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Yet again, you're taking a very black and white approach to things - not everyone has the time, motivation or attention span, even as town, to re-read over a game several times. There are plenty of good players on this site who will replace into games and then not even read them because it's more productive to focus effort on deducing reads from actually interacting with players.In post 446, 0x40 wrote:
"I'm not gonna bother giving reads on more than 2 players, because the guy that criticized me for not doing so sounded rude to me!"In post 444, Drone wrote:Cut your rude and pestering attitude out.
And no. I won't.
Sorry to inform you, but I can't get into business all that quickly, you might have a memory of w/e you want.
Mine is limited.
Mine is to start working my way, and yours is to calm down.
"Getting reads is way too difficult for me, because my memory is so limited I can't remember anything meaningful!"
Yeah. You may as well claim scum then, because I doubt that even a pr claim would save you from getting lynched if you refuse to give reads on more than 2 players.
UNVOTE: Chrimi
VOTE: Drone
He literally made his first post 3 hours ago; only having reads on two players at that point is not a scumclaim.-
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I'd say this was a somewhat typical d1 I think. We had a variety of wagons that rose and fell and ultimately got probably a good amount of information out of peoples' opinions and voting patterns. If you're town, don't worry too much if we hit town with the lynch; d1 is always the most difficult day to hit scum in because we have no information from either flips or night actions, and relatively little from peoples' actions.
Day one is really more about feeling the game out a lot of the time, so also don't worry if you feel like there's a lot of information to parse through.
I'm pretty fine with that hammer. In a sense it's somewhat disconcerting that so many people were willing to push 0x but ultimately it wouldn't surprise me if he is scum and someone was bussing him, particularly late on the wagon once it became clearer that he was gonna be the lynch over tne. Once we have his flip and a nightkill to go off of, we should be able to get more traction.-
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This is a philosophy I tend to disagree with; it's typically good town play as a PR to not make it clear that you're a PR so that scum won't target you, so theoretically if a PR is playing well another PR won't be able to figure out who they are.In post 465, shannon wrote:If you are a town pr, this is the time to think about your night action. If you have a protective role, try to use it on someone you think is a PR. If you don't have any idea about other PRs, target someone you think is town. But please prioritise suspected PRs first. (I say this as someone who was once killed the same night I would have got a result on scum, because the doc protected her favourite town player instead of me).
Additionally a lot of tells that look PR-ish are often similar to tells that look scummy (flying under the radar, etc) so you might wind up protecting scum.
A protective role (well, a doctor) should try to predict who the scum are going to kill and target that player. Because otherwise their role doesn't do anything. A cop or tracker can pretty much do whatever they want, investigating someone they're unsure of is fine but I think investigating a scumread is also perfectly fine; it's a scumread for a cop but not for everyone, and getting a guilty means that there's no more uncertainty. A jailkeeper, which is the only other PR we can have in this setup, will typically attempt to target scum for a few reasons: it's easier to figure out who's scum than it is to figure out who scum are going to kill a lot of the time, it serves as a pseudo-guilty if you target someone who was unlikely to have been the nightkill, and targeting town has the risk of blocking a power role (although the last reason doesn't matter in this setup because jailkeeper will never exist with another active power role).-
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On the 0x40 wagon, we have:
-tne: pretty consistently pushed 0x40 all day. Her vote isn't really scummy.
-PP: he switches from rocnix to 0x40, after Rocnix disappeared. This in and of itself is fine. I'm not sure what I think of the vote itself.
-Jibs: pretty strange vote. He votes immediately after PP, having not said anything about 0x40 in a long time. Would be nice if we could ask him about this but ah well.
-shannon and Chrimi I don't feel like can be read in to at all, given that they were to some degree simply "the day is ending" votes, I believe. I think they're both fine though. shannon maybe a little but it doesn't really make me feel much either way.
I sort of feel like one of pp/jibs was being opportunistic scum here to some degree but -shrug-. Myself and Drone were also expressing suspicion near the end so the hammer in particular is meaningless. The fact that literally every other player expressed suspicion of 0x40 to at least some degree frankly makes me a bit suspicious of AF, who before disappearing due to sickness expressed a tone of criticality towards 0x40 without actually expressing suspicion.
AF, what do you make of the wagon and in general the play that occurred while you were gone? Would you have joined it, do you think? Do you think it was a good lynch?-
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shannon, I think calling for consolidation is still relevant even with those additional votes on 0x; it wasn't clear that the wagon was going to take off (I didn't interpret your 415 as saying you were going to vote 0x specifically), and just looking at the vote count before I posted there were three singleton votes, one 2-vote wagon, one 3-vote wagon, and one non-vote - hardly consolidated. Your point is fair but if I were scum with Chrimi I don't think I would need to signal to her to do anything; she's an experienced player, she'd know when it's appropriate to vote or hammer as scum. And it's not like I would be concerned by that vote count if I were scum with her (there was one vote on her and 0 on me) so I don't see why I would need to signal to her to hammer in the first place.-
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I saw that you called him town; a lot happened between you calling him town and the day ending, and I was curious if that would have made you re-evaluate. But I digress.In post 499, AstralFlare wrote:
I think it was town's only option for a lynch with so little time left on the clock, especially with the surge of replacements and my unfortunately illness. I don't really have an issue with the people just joining the wagon because "day ending soon". (I've expressed my own opinion on 0x40 before. If you're too lazy to look through my ISO I called him town.) So no, I would have tried to push another wagon instead.AF, what do you make of the wagon and in general the play that occurred while you were gone? Would you have joined it, do you think? Do you think it was a good lynch?
Also @Cass, welcome; I would also like to hear what your first impressions are, and what you make of the end of yesterday in general.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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A few things here.In post 511, shannon wrote:All I can say is that I just played with Implosion (we were both town) and he seems different here. He seems, in my limited experience, like a really good player and a really close reader. I expect him to pick up on things like my intended vote, and he says he didn't. I expect him to remember that TNE's wagon was disbanding, not building up. If someone else made those sorts of mistakes I'd expect him to call them out on it, so for him to make the mistakes himself suggests to me that they're scum and not actual mistakes.
One, there are a lot of important differences between these two games:
- I played the majority of that game while on break, this game started a couple of weeks into my new job.
- That game was a ridiculously active large normal with twice as many players as this game.
- I'm an IC in this game, so of course my play is going to feel different on that level.
There are certain things that will be similar between the games (I mentioned earlier that that game is a good example of me getting townreads early). There are other things that won't be.
Two, I don't consider myself a particularly close reader. I don't typically double check the semantics of posts when I read them; semantics aren't as important as motivation when scumhunting. And I wouldn't 'call someone out' if I saw them make a mistake like that; I might mention it but it's not like a mistake like that is indicative of scum. I wouldn't intentionally misread something as scum (it's conceivable that I would put less effort into reading and therefore miss more things as scum but I don't think I really put less effort into games or would be more likely to miss things as scum).
I am curious about tne asking for the bp to claim (specifically in light of setup A as you mentioned). It makes sense if there are no other protective roles because obviously scum would know who the bp is and we wouldn't, but the possibility of a jailkeeper does make automatically claiming potentially bad. That said I can see a scum kill on chrimi as a possibility.
But I don't really want to draw as strong of a conclusion as you seem to be drawing without hearing what tne says.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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PP's posting so far today is very lackluster:In post 495, PenguinPower wrote:
Wait...why just those two? Could there not also be a Doctor?In post 493, Chrimi wrote:That's.. very interesting? So we've got a JK, BP or both.
He's very much playing on the edge of the game, poking at various different things. In particular the way he says what I've done is "concerning," but doesn't really call it scummy nor join the 2-vote wagon on me; similarly to what he's accusing me of he's sort of applying pressure without committing, which is interesting if he thinks that my calling for consolidation without joining the wagon was scummy. He implies that it is reasonable to see what Chrimi said as a scumslip, but doesn't vote or really pressure her at all either. He's just looming on the sidelines. I think town-PP would probably have voted me in that post; it's 5 to lynch, so being a third vote to apply pressure on me isn't unreasonable. I think he's scum who is concerned how that vote will make him look, or who is trying to get a feel for how d2 will be playing out.In post 520, PenguinPower wrote:
Who do you think it was?In post 504, Drone wrote:2) at some point, I believe a scum started directing the lynch (although not sure which).
When I say "directing" I mean, actively directing fire at him, as he already was the easiest and weakest candidate for a simple elimination.
I agree with this being concerning. He's calling for consolidation on what ends up being town, but remains off the wagon himself.In post 508, shannon wrote:4) Why, if the priority to lynch and get info, did implosion ask 0x40 questions, and not add his vote? Especially since 0x40 was at L-2, and Implosion didn't consider this a 'sure' wagon? An info seeking vote could have really helped put the pressure on 0x40 to give us useable stuff instead of just attitude.
Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?In post 509, Chrimi wrote:Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.
VOTE: PenguinPower
There's also some miscellaneous stuff from yesterday in his ISO I'm noticing like this:
This implies he's keeping his vote on Rocnix specifically because she's gone missing and he wants to continue pressuring the slot, but he switches to 0x40 specifically because she had disappeared (for reference, a little over 96 hours before deadline I believe). That to me belies that he didn't actually have an internally consistent motivation for pushing Rocnix; the fact that he justified both keeping his vote on her and unvoting her with the fact that she had been gone suggests that he is not town, as town would either consider it a reason to keep voting or to not keep voting, as opposed to both.Absent a scumslip, significant new information, or us getting within 72 hours of deadline, I don't see my vote changing until Rocnix - or her slot - returns and starts participating. You're still on my watchlist.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I mean, honestly I don't think there are a ton of players who weren't potential nightkill targets last night. Chrimi makes sense because she was an active poster who could potentially take the fore in future days. I could see a lot of other players as well.In post 530, shannon wrote:Quickie reply because I'm on lunch -
1) I'm going to ISO Chrimi next and see whether there's anything worthy of a NK attempt. From memory nothing sticks out but I'll re-read in light of my new theory. (It's also possible that Chrimi is having a gambit of some sort here).
2) I'm drawing strong conclusions because usually, I equivocate over everything and it's not doing me any favours. This has led me to be obv town in every single game (including the scum ones). I've never been lynched, but I've also never won as town. So, time to shake things up a bit.
3) I acknowledge that my case is mostly circumstantial, but I think all those circumstances add up. We have someone who's not doing any significant scum hunting, has no town reads, and was the D1 first wagon. He discouraged me from giving advice to PRs, then comes back today asking whether we have a BP amongst us. I can't see any town advantage to knowing that info. I can see definite scum advantage. Assuming that the question was in fact scummy, by POE it is most likely to have come from a team with a roleblocker, and if this is the case, we need to 1) lynch TNE ASAP, and 2) prevent the scum team from finding any hint of our JK. If Chrimi was lying about being BP, same goes, but substitute 'other PRs' for JK.
Drawing stronger conclusions isn't really the kind of thing that I think of as a playstyle experiment; I try to draw conclusions based on how strong I perceive the evidence to be. Winning games of mafia is a very complicated matter. But alas. I understand what you're saying about tne, and it makes complete sense that this is something that could be the case. I think the strongest piece of what you've said so far is that she mentioned rolefishing as bad earlier, but again I think there are simple possible explanations with her as town.
I think your train of thought right now reads as very town, though. So you're becoming a stronger townread. As is Chrimi I think (although we'll see later if the claims add up of course, so no need to focus on sorting her right now).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I'm not criticizing your activity at all, your activity level has been fine. But there are lots of reasons town will typically want to start or hop on a wagon early; as town, a vote that's on no one accomplishes nothing. By voting you can put pressure on someone, make it clear where you stand, and make yourself easier to read. By avoiding voting and listing a large pool of potential scumreads, if you're scum, you're setting yourself up to go with the flow whoever winds up being pressured among your scumreads without having to put yourself out there as much.PenguinPower wrote:Why wouldn't town want to do the same? We're less than 2 days into D2. We've had a claim, but not everyone has responded since then. Why would I start/hop on a wagon so early? Re: Chrimi's possible scum slip...see post 552. I did the same, but shannon corrected. And yes, I haven't been very active D2...it's been a busy workweek this week. Sorry you're allowed to have that happen, but not me.
You also pretty objectively stated that your vote would remain on Rocnix until there were 72 hours left in the day (or until there was a scumslip or significant new information, neither of which I think appeared in that span). The fact that you sounded both eager to keep your vote on Rocnix and eager to take it off is just strange - I'm fine with the attitude of not wanting to rush at deadline, but I don't think your attitude in 389 is consistent with that attitude, especially given that there were about 24 hours between 389 and 410 which is a very short period of time to go from keeping your vote in one spot until further notice to avoiding a deadline rush.PP wrote: It implies that Rocnix was my strongest scum read D1, but I wasn't going to risk the town getting a no lynch or rushing at deadline. I previously said that a deadline rush to lynch cost town the game in my last newbie. You can read whatever else into that you want, but I pretty objectively stated that.
You're case against me is that I don't play this game like you do.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This isn't something that I think I've ever considered at the end of an early day. Honestly i don't really think about games much at all overnight, particularly as town of course. I didn't have any amount of thought at the end of d1 as to who would be the d2 lynch. My best scumread at that point was pp if that's what you meant.In post 549, shannon wrote:OK, here's a question for everyone. All else being equal, at the end of D1, who did you think would be the D2 lynch and why?
@Cass, the points on rocnix are by and large not bad on first glance. Not sure what to make of him "distancing" from the 0x lynch. It looks like he just calls it a policy lynch repeatedly, and I agree that it is a little strange to frame it that way so much. Potentially in a scummy way. It's not really distancing himself from the lynch, it's sort of like he's discrediting the lynch as being meaningful.
I can see drone potentially being a good candidate. My reason for townreading rocnix was her doing a 180 on me but eh. I can think of a couple of reasons why that's a bad reason. Curious how drone responds to the part of the iso on him.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I'm also not sure what she means by it being PR-solvable.
The existence of a BP claim doesn't tell us a ton; it's not confirmable in the event that we're in setup 1, the fact that there's two setups with only one power role means that having two PR claims doesn't make them both true. And even having three PR claims you can't always figure out which one is fake (if there's bp+jk+tracker claims it could be that the jk is fake, the tracker is fake, or both the bp+tracker are fake).In post 2, innocentvillager wrote:A B C 1 Town JailkeeperVanilla TownieMafia Goon2 Mafia RoleblockerTown CopTown Doctor3 Town 1-Shot BulletproofMafia GoonTown Tracker
So yeah really idk what she means.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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"eager" may have been inaccurate.In post 583, PenguinPower wrote:
I like the manipulation here...well done. I especially like the appeal to emotion with the "eager" wording...which I was never in either situation. At the time of that post, it had been four days from Roxnix's last post. Yeah, there were more than 24 hours - not by much - but there was also a difference of a possible return or replace out. As of post 410 it was obvious the slot was going to be replaced and a D1 focus wasn't going to accomplish anything.In post 580, implosion wrote:You also pretty objectively stated that your vote would remain on Rocnix until there were 72 hours left in the day (or until there was a scumslip or significant new information, neither of which I think appeared in that span). The fact that you sounded both eager to keep your vote on Rocnix and eager to take it off is just strange - I'm fine with the attitude of not wanting to rush at deadline, but I don't think your attitude in 389 is consistent with that attitude, especially given that there were about 24 hours between 389 and 410 which is a very short period of time to go from keeping your vote in one spot until further notice to avoiding a deadline rush.
Care to present post 432 442 and 451? At this time, we were heading into a weekend deadline and I wanted to get a claim...which should be apparent.
When you call my post manipulative, are you implying that it is in a scummy way?
Why do you think it was significantly more obvious that the slot was going to be replaced as of post 410 compared to 389? Essentially what I see right now is that you flipped this over the span of only one day, which to me doesn't seem to be enough time to go from thinking the pressure on rocnix was worth it to thinking rocnix was probably going to be replaced.
Also I'm not sure what you mean with regards to 432, 442 and 451.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Point me to exactly what you're referring to here.In post 590, shannon wrote:If PP is right in 586, that we had gone past the prod deadline and that's why he changed votes, then this is the second time that I've noticed Implosion misusing post timelines to try to imagine reasons for things. The first is when I asked him about questioning but not voting 0x40, and he blamed it on there being two competing wagons - the first of which was pretty clearly disbanding after already reaching L-1.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Uh. What.In post 605, thenewearth wrote:I don't usually do this but when an IC says this:
In post 592, implosion wrote:Yeah I don't know what PR solvable means to begin with. In that post I was attempting to guess X_X
Then that means the IC is scum. If he were town he'd agree because IC would usually be super experienced with this setup AND would know that this game would be easily solved. Heck even newbies with a bit of thought can think about why. And trust me I've been caught offguard by newbie games alot 3 years ago
First of all I've literally never played Matrix6. Back the last time I played a newbie game they were still using c9 or whatever it was called.
Second of all again, what? Why would I lie about that as scum. What advantage do I possibly gain by lying about not knowing what PR solvable means.
You're being extremely cryptic. I don't even know what is meant by the phrase "pr solvable" to begin with so I don't know why you expect me to apply it to a setup I've never played.
@AF I'll get to what you said after work, don't have time atm.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Alright. Several comments here.AF wrote:I'm going to call you scum partners with PP that's what. He rebutted your argument, you didn't seem convinced by his rebuttal, and yet you took your vote away and put it on Drone.
1: just a general caution: pre-flip partner hunting is still really bad. The a priori odds that you're correct are sufficiently low that it's barely if at all worth doing. With that out of the way,
2: I actually was somewhat convinced by his rebuttal. I didn't make it obvious, though, which was somewhat intentional because I wanted to see if he'd have any interesting reaction to me unvoting seemingly "out of nowhere" but. I feel like 583 has the emotional content of a townie who feels like they are being unjustly misrepresented. He also was in a sense correct that I was being manipulative. At the point of 580 I wasn't really convinced by the argument I was making; I just wanted to see how the argument would wind up playing out.
3: I feel like I've gotten a fair amount out of this pressure; I want to turn somewhere else and give PP some breathing room so he can develop more reads since he still hasn't really "committed" to anything and if he's town he may just not have the time to reassess if he's constantly rebutting me.
For why to leave a 3-man wagon, see above; at this point I don't think the pressure is helping, if anything it's stifling him from scumhunting if he's town. Scumhunting is not the only way to give off towntells; you can also do it through something like betraying genuine town motivation or a view of the game that only town is likely to have.AF wrote:Sure you want pressure on Drone to see his reaction to the ISO, but your pressure on PP has yielded no scumhunting from him, so why not keep it there? Why go from a 3 man wagon to a 0 man one?-
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It being an inactive wagon is, if anything, all the more reason to see that vote count as not consolidated. Yes, there was a three-person wagon, but my point is that there were also 6 other players in the game (including myself) who weren't really doing anything at the time with their votes.shannon wrote:In response to my questions, you claimed that there were two competing wagons and that's why you didn't vote 0x40 when you questioned him late D1. But looking back at the day, one of them wasn't an active wagon - it was two votes on a wagon that people were moving *off* of, and one of those votes belonged to the inactive Rocnix.
You're correct here and this is part of why I've reneged; I only really realized that the prod duration was a thing near the end of that argument.shannon wrote:In PP's case, you've tried to make it look like he was committed to voting Rocnix and then jumped, and that's plausible on the face of things, because PP did put a time limit on his support of Rocnix. But PP has shown that he changed vote because Rocnix went beyond prod during that period and was going to be replaced, so staying on her wagon didn't make sense. Which I think is fair enough. (PP could still be scum, but this act wasn't scummy IMHO).
Anyway shannon I'm sort of here but I'm also tired and idk how much longer I will be online. I'm not sure what exactly you want to have a real-time chat about - tne being cryptic? Because I feel like that conversation sort of stops at "tne is being cryptic." I still really haven't figured out what I think that means wrt her alignment.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I really dislike this reasoning; do you really find it so definite that tne-scum implies chrimi-scum that that alone is reason to ignore tne for today? I'll yet again reference my earlier argument that partner hunting without flips is terrible practice.Cass wrote:Hm, I think if TNE is scum, it's with Chrime, and they set up the current situation together. But if so, at least one of us would know Chrime was lying. It's not impossible, but for today I'm going with assuming this is not the case.
So, under that assumption (meaning I'm ignoring Chrime and tne for now),
At this and your other question about lynching tne at deadline, I sort of have trouble answering them because I can't really imagine my reads being in the state that they're in at this moment close to deadline; I mean, for instance, you've been in this game for 4 RL days. Drone is in a similar situation having replaced in at the end of d1. I still need to sort both of you; I didn't really have strong opinions on your predecessors at the times they were replaced so I need to engage with both of you more. If it were about to be deadline I would hammer tne; if it were like a few days off I would be considering you, Drone, tne, and maybe AF and trying to discriminate between you more closely because right now I think I'm satisfied enough with PP's reaction to me to call him town (there's also one other reason that I've neglected to mention which is that the way his tne read has evolved looks genuine, and I think that him metaing her earlier was probably a towntell but I had been putting it in the back of my mind and remembered it on reread). I'm happy with shannon and chrimi as town right now as well.Cass wrote:@Implosion If deadline was imminent, would you 'try' to lynch drone? Or do you see a smarter choice?
So eh. Deadline isn't imminent and the game state would be different if it was.-
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